Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the cost - inversion situation of alumina enterprises was still severe, production willingness decreased, and some enterprises cut production. There are still maintenance and production - cut plans in the future. The new northern production capacity has not shown an increase in supply, and there are negative news, leading to market观望 about its future production increase [3][8]. - The demand from electrolytic aluminum enterprises was mainly about capacity transfer last week, with theoretical demand remaining basically unchanged. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 57,427 tons to 243,000 tons, and the factory warehouse decreased by 900 tons to 7,200 tons [3][8]. - Overall, some alumina enterprises are still in a theoretical loss state. With maintenance and production - cut plans and the new production capacity causing concerns, the alumina has good bottom support. However, it is also affected by the new production capacity commissioning process and the potential decline in costs, so it has the impetus to rebound but the height is expected to be limited [3][8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/4/30 | 2025/5/9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2729 | 2827 | 98 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2900 | 2907 | 7 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 149 | 77 | -72 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 348 | 349 | 1 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | -285.39 | -280.49 | 4.9 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 271413 | 242563 | -28850 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 7200 | 7200 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite in Shanxi (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Henan (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guangxi (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guizhou (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 77 | 75 | -2 | US dollars/ton | [4] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract rose 2.59% last week, closing at 2,827 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average price of the spot market on Friday was 2,907 Yuan/ton, up 7 Yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - For bauxite, the cost pressure of alumina producers was slightly relieved. After the holiday, inland alumina enterprises lowered the purchase price of domestic ore, and there were rumors about the second - quarter price cut of Guinea's long - term bauxite contracts [6]. - On the supply side, some new alumina production capacity was put into operation last week, but some enterprises carried out maintenance and production cuts. As of May 8, China's alumina production capacity was 110.6 million tons, the operating capacity was 86.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.25% [6]. - On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum capacity in Shandong continued to transfer to Yunnan, and the theoretical operating capacity of the industry remained stable, with no obvious change in the demand for alumina. As of now, the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 43.835 million tons, the same as last week [6]. - In terms of inventory, last Friday, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 57,427 tons to 243,000 tons, and the factory warehouse decreased by 900 tons to 7,200 tons [6]. Market Outlook - The situation is the same as the core views, including cost - inversion, production cuts, new production capacity issues, stable demand, and the situation of inventory change. Alumina has support at the bottom and rebound impetus but limited upside [8]. Industry News - The Shanxi Bureau of the National Mine Safety Supervision issued a notice to standardize mine safety supervision and law - enforcement behavior, aiming to improve law - enforcement efficiency and prevent mine safety accidents [9]. - Guinea held a publicity seminar to promote the national framework for compensating, indemnifying, and resettling the population affected by development projects [9]. - Lindian Resources acquired the remaining 25% stake in Bauxite Holding to gain full ownership of the Lelouma bauxite project in Guinea and eliminate risks related to ownership dilution and finance [9]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [10][12][13]

| | 变量名称 | 2025-05-09 | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-30 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 19585 | 19510 | 19910 | 75.00 | | | 沪铝期货活跃合约 | 成交量(手) | 115651 | 267563 | 127011 | -151, 912. 00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 181738 | 192705 | 183869 | -10, 967. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 65013 | 66106 | 68563 | -1, 093. 00 | | | 沪铝基差 | SMM A00电解铝半均价 | 19610 | 19620 | 20060 | -10.00 \ | | | (现货与期货) | 沪铝基差 | 25 | 110 | 150 | -85.00 | | | | 沪铝近月-沪铝连一 | 70 | 140 | 65 | -70.00 | | | 价差(近月与远月) | 沪铝连一-沪铝连二 | 85 | ...

铝的预期与兑现 20250511 摘要 • 预计 2025 年铝利润中枢略低于 2024 年，全球铝过剩量因关税问题从 13 万吨增至 62 万吨，成本维持在 16,000-17,000 元/吨，氧化铝投产过剩 压力犹存但下行空间有限，需警惕无财政刺激下铝价和利润承压风险。 • 国内铝市场利润边际变化受进口铝锭、废铝利润及实际缺口影响，长周期 内冶炼厂均可盈利，但盈利水平受多种因素影响。铝加工费差和进口利润 波动更能反映市场需求边际变化，需关注终端需求和技术进步对有色金属 需求的拉动作用。 • 制造业企业对货币政策敏感度降低，更关注新订单和实际需求扩张。出口 对铝市场影响显著，宁波港运价指数领先铝利润约两个月，但关税冲击已 影响出口板块，包括家电等间接出口。 • 宏观层面，预计未来铅消费增速放缓，内容品、包装等板块收益增长预期 下调至 4%左右，海外制造业投资不确定性增加，出口增长预期下调至负。 汽车行业超季节性扩张，预计拉动铝消费约 6%，电网建设预计增幅为 6%。 Q&A 从长期角度来看，铝市场的供应和利润预期如何？ 铝作为一种优质品种，从长期角度来看存在供应端约束。短期内，由于关税冲 击，铝的利润可能承 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, demand has a marginal weakening expectation, but the inventory is at a low level. The center of aluminum price operation has a downward risk, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. For alumina, the progress of new production capacity is the key focus, and the short - term price rebound space is limited, with an expected weak and volatile operation [2][68]. Summary by Related Catalogs Electrolytic Aluminum Macro - Sino - US talks have started, but the probability of reaching an agreement in the short term is limited. The US has multiple rounds of tariff talks with other countries. The US and the UK have reached a tariff agreement, canceling the 232 aluminum tariff on the UK. The US economic data is strong, and the Fed's stance is still hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of the number of Fed rate cuts to three times this year. China has introduced multiple economic stimulus policies [2]. Industry Supply - The supply side has little short - term change, with a slow increase in production. Future capacity changes will mainly involve small - scale restarts and replacement of production capacity [2]. Industry Demand - In April, the apparent consumption of aluminum increased by more than 7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was more than 5% year - on - year. However, the high - growth demand did not boost market confidence. The marginal weakening of demand is highly certain. The photovoltaic module production schedule in May is expected to be 55GW, a 10% month - on - month decrease. The home appliance production schedule increases year - on - year but weakens month - on - month. The orders of photovoltaic aluminum profile enterprises have declined. Last week, the operating rates of leading aluminum profile and aluminum plate - strip - foil enterprises decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of aluminum cables increased month - on - month [2]. Inventory - The net import of aluminum ingots is expected to remain at a high level of over 160,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the bonded area continues to increase. The social inventory of aluminum ingots briefly increased after the May Day holiday, which is in line with the seasonality. Based on historical data, the inventory can decrease by 120,000 - 180,000 tons in the whole month. With the social inventory of aluminum ingots at over 620,000 tons at the beginning of May, it is expected to drop to a low level of over 500,000 tons next week, which is expected to support the monthly spread [2]. Trading Logic - The impact of tariffs on global aluminum demand remains to be reflected at the micro - level. The subsequent low - level social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to support the monthly spread. However, with the marginal weakening of demand in sectors such as photovoltaics and home appliances, pay attention to the consumption inflection point from May to June. The short - term strong supply - demand performance in China cannot reverse the annual surplus pressure. The expectation of marginal demand decline in the middle of the year remains unchanged. It is expected that the aluminum price will mainly fluctuate widely. To stably break through the 20,000 - yuan mark, the global annual aluminum consumption expectation needs to improve. To break below the 19,000 - yuan mark, the weakening expectation on the demand side needs to be realized. Since the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is still at a relatively high level of about 3,500 yuan in recent years, pay attention to the possibility of the off - season expectation being realized ahead of schedule from June to July, leading to a decline in aluminum price and a contraction in aluminum profit [2]. Trading Strategy - The actual impact of tariffs on the global economy remains to be seen. With the expectation of marginal demand weakening but a relatively low absolute inventory level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and derivatives trading [2]. Alumina Raw Material End - After the May Day holiday, the bauxite market had a significant price adjustment. Large mining enterprises revised the long - term agreement prices for the second quarter. The price of Guinea's mainstream 45/3 ore was lowered to $75 per dry ton (CIF). The bulk market also weakened, with the 45/3 ore quotation falling below $75 per dry ton, and some low - quality ore quotes reaching $72 per dry ton. However, buyers remained cautious. As mining enterprises and traders accelerate shipments, the alumina price recovers, and the rainy season in Guinea approaches, the procurement activities of downstream alumina enterprises are expected to gradually pick up [68]. Supply End - After the May Day holiday, the number of domestic alumina enterprises undergoing phased maintenance and production reduction continued to increase, covering regions such as Guizhou, Guangxi, and Shanxi. The total operating capacity decreased by 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and the operating rate was 78.2% [68]. Trading Logic - A news item last week triggered market concerns about alumina supply and pushed up the price, but the actual impact and real situation need continuous tracking. In May, both maintenance and restart of alumina production capacity occurred, and new production capacity will gradually produce finished products. Pay attention to the impact of the progress of new production capacity on the supply - demand balance shifting from short - term tight balance to surplus. The price of imported bauxite is on a downward trend, and the alumina warehouse receipts are still at a high level. If the maintenance capacity recovers, there is a possibility of positive restart. It is expected that the rebound range of the alumina price will be relatively limited, and it will maintain a weak and volatile operation [68]. Trading Strategy - In the short term, the alumina price is expected to operate weakly and volatilely. If the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged after the price rebound, consider short - selling. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and option trading [68].

周度报告—氧化铝 国内氧化铝新投现变数 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 5 月 | 年 | 11 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★几内亚矿价进一步降低，国内氧化铝新投现变数 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格处于下行通道，山西矿 58/5 的含税报 价 700 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。五一假期间检查组再次 入驻山西地区，节后相关部门加强对矿山检查。受安全环保、资 源整合及品位下降等影响，国内矿整体供应仍呈现紧缺的状态， 复产矿山以及存量矿山的产出稳定性有待观察。进口方面，大型 矿企对二季度长协价格做出修订，几内亚主流矿 45/3 价格下调 至 75 美元/干吨（CIF）。部分低品质散弹矿石报价到 72 美元/ 干吨。国内用户对该价格仍较排斥，远期价格有意压至 CIF 68-70 美元/吨。GIC 码头恢复作业，先前矿山积压库存开始陆续发出。 GIC 方面表示纠纷问题会 ...

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年05月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：一度领跌有色板块，继续跟踪光伏排产 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 沪铝节后一度领跌有色板块，本周最低触及19300低位，但随后伴随氧化铝产业爆出产能调查事件，传统有色铜锌等亦疑 似走出月差挤仓，沪铝重新修复一段向上空间。从边际供需的角度出发，结合本轮美国关税带来的影响，我们仍维持近 期观点：当前供需面界定的方向更倾向于向下。铝价以及电解铝企业利润被挤压的程度，后续将很大程度取决于关税事 件对于出口需求的冲击程度，以及光伏排产的实际下滑深度。 ◆ 后续更倾向于从"未来现实"的层面去寻找进一步的验证点——一是看海外市场的缺口到底能否持续，并最终把现有库 存消耗到一个关键临界点；二是看我们出口端的节奏变化，需要持续跟踪出口产品总量及结构性的变化，尤其是要进一 步 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market is experiencing mixed trends, with aluminum oxide futures showing a notable increase while black building materials continue to decline. The recent three consecutive days of gains in aluminum oxide futures have drawn significant attention, reflecting market concerns over production cuts and future ore supply [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - After the May Day holiday, many aluminum oxide-related enterprises are undergoing maintenance, leading to production disruptions. For instance, a 1 million ton capacity line in Shanxi has halted due to ore supply issues, and another 800,000 ton capacity line in Guangxi will be under maintenance for 15 days [2]. - The aluminum oxide futures market is transitioning to the 2509 contract, with traders focusing on the anticipated production cuts during the rainy season in Guinea [2]. - Despite the rise in futures prices, domestic aluminum oxide spot prices have remained relatively stable, with an average price of 2895.86 yuan/ton as of May 8, 2025 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The aluminum oxide industry has seen its production capacity increase from 82.45 million tons at the beginning of the year to over 90 million tons, outpacing demand growth and contributing to price declines [3]. - Social inventory of aluminum oxide has increased from 3.7 million tons at the start of the year to 4 million tons by late April, but has recently decreased to 3.946 million tons due to production cuts [5]. - The dependency on imported bauxite is high, with approximately 75% of China's bauxite sourced from abroad, primarily Guinea [6]. Group 3: Price Trends and Projections - The price of aluminum oxide is heavily influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with a significant surplus expected in the market due to rapid capacity expansion [9]. - The cash cost of aluminum oxide production is a critical indicator, with current costs around 2669 yuan/ton, which may serve as a short-term price support level [11]. - Future price movements are anticipated to face resistance around the 3000-3100 yuan mark, with potential downward pressure if bauxite prices continue to decline [12].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 公司 2024 年实现营业收入 323.21 亿元，同比 +22.23% ；实现归母净利润 17.48 亿元，同比 +29.76% 。 2025 年 Q1 实现营业收入 81.24 亿元，同比 +13.07% ；实现归母净利润 4.40 亿元，同比 +21.46% 。 点评： 2024 年单吨净利同比显著提升 2024 年公司实现销量 146.72 万吨，同比增长 18.8% ，单吨净利润 1191.7 元 / 吨，较 2023 年提升 100.5 元 / 吨， 2024 年公司在新能源、电子家电、汽车及交通运输领域产品占比提高约 5Pct ，产销量高增长的 同时产品结构持续优化。分季度看， 2024 年 Q1-Q4 ...

SHMET 网讯： 自去年12月初开始下跌以来，氧化铝期货已"缩水"近50%，五一假期归来，期价在逼近纪录低位后终于企稳，近几日持续收涨，回升至一周高位。 氧化铝暂时摆脱阴霾，连续两日大幅反弹，消息面有什么利好传来吗？最近氧化铝库存出现不断去化一幕，供需面是否出现明显的好转迹象？未来氧化铝过 剩预期还强吗？期价反弹势头能延续吗？文华财经【机构会诊】板块邀请氧化铝期货专家为您详细分析。 【机构会诊】：氧化铝暂时摆脱阴霾，连续两日大幅反弹，消息面有什么利好传来吗？ 华安期货投资咨询部分析师 鲍峰：现阶段去判断氧化铝供需面好转为时过早，根据SMM调研数据显示，4月份氧化铝开工率为78.8%，环比上月下降5.8%。 电解铝4月运行产能为96.11%，环比增加0.33%。因此可见氧化铝的供需面确实有一定的好转，但从季节性角度看，78.8%的氧化铝开工依然处于高位，明显 好转迹象的结论需要后续观察。 【机构会诊】：未来氧化铝过剩预期还强吗？期价反弹势头能延续吗？ 国投安信期货研究院高级研究员 刘冬博：后续来看，行业利润决定了检修产能的复产节奏，供应和利润动态变化，一旦利润修复产供应弹性大，且河北某 厂第二条第三条线共32 ...

2025 年 5 月 9 日 要点 事件 : 公司 2024 年实现营业收入 323.21 亿元，同比+22.23%；实现归母净利润 17.48 亿元，同比+29.76%。2025 年 Q1 实现营业收入 81.24 亿元，同比+13.07%； 实现归母净利润 4.40 亿元，同比+21.46%。 点评：2024 年单吨净利同比显著提升。2024 年公司实现销量 146.72 万吨，同 比增长 18.8%，单吨净利润 1191.7 元/吨，较 2023 年提升 100.5 元/吨，2024 年公司在新能源、电子家电、汽车及交通运输领域产品占比提高约 5Pct，产销 量高增长的同时产品结构持续优化。分季度看，2024 年 Q1-Q4 公司产品单吨净 利润分别为 1052.6/1904.4/893.3/907.0 元/吨。2025 年 Q1 公司铝板带箔产量 为 38.46 万吨，同比增长 11.58%，销量为 37.49 万吨，同比增长 10.33%。 取消出口退税政策实施，销量未受显著影响。财政部、税务总局宣布自 2024 年 12 月 1 日起，取消铝材等产品出口退税。中国铝材加工产能占全球六成以上， 在产 ...