Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From May 19 - 23, interest - rate bonds fluctuated, while credit bonds continued to strengthen with declining yields and narrowing credit spreads. 3 - 5 - year bonds, especially 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds, showed advantages [1][9]. - In May, the net financing of credit bonds was negative and decreased year - on - year, mainly dragged down by urban investment bonds. However, the issuance interest rate declined overall, with a larger decline in the short - to - medium - term [2][10]. - The 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds have significant coupon cost - effectiveness, large stock scale, and room for credit spread compression [2][14][15]. - For urban investment bonds, it is recommended to select high - cost - effective individual bonds through two ideas: high excess spread and steep yield curve [3][18]. - For bank capital bonds, a strategy combining short - duration downgrading and long - duration investment in large banks is relatively advantageous [5][25]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Urban Investment Bonds: Net Financing Continues to be Negative, Seeking Returns in Medium - to - Long - Term - Net financing may be negative for three consecutive months. From May 1 - 25, 2025, the issuance was 181.5 billion yuan, the maturity was 252.5 billion yuan, and the net financing deficit expanded to 71 billion yuan [28]. - The primary market issuance sentiment continued to recover, with the proportion of issuance multiples above 3 times increasing by 9 percentage points to 73%. The issuance interest rate continued to decline, with 1 - year - within, 1 - 3 - year, 3 - 5 - year, and over - 5 - year rates decreasing by 13bp, 12bp, 3bp, and 9bp respectively compared to April [2][10][28]. - In the secondary market, yields declined across the board, and spreads continued to compress. The market is looking for returns in the medium - to - long - term, and 3 - 5 - year bonds have become more active in trading [31][33]. 2. Industrial Bonds: Buying Sentiment Recovers, and Trading Continues to Extend Duration - In the primary market, the issuance scale increased slightly year - on - year, but the net financing decreased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened, and the issuance period was concentrated within 1 year. The issuance interest rate of bonds within 3 years declined, while that of bonds over 3 years increased [36]. - In the secondary market, the buying sentiment recovered, and trading continued to extend duration. The proportion of trading over 5 years increased from 9% to 13%, while the proportion within 1 year decreased from 31% to 24% [9]. 3. Bank Capital Bonds: Medium - to - Long - Duration Secondary Capital Bonds Perform Well - In the primary market, from May 19 - 23, 2025, some banks issued 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds [42]. - In the secondary market, the yields of bank capital bonds generally declined by 1 - 9bp, and spreads narrowed across the board. Medium - to - long - duration secondary capital bonds performed well [4][5][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Report's Core View - Fundamental factors are unlikely to break the narrow - range fluctuation pattern of the bond market. The decline in deposit rates is a short - term positive for non - bank allocation demand. The bond market is reasonably priced compared to credit and other broad - spectrum interest rates, but has a lower cost - performance ratio compared to the stock market. Chinese bonds are a global interest - rate low - lying area. In the short term, continue to focus on non - bank allocation, PMI data, and bond supply. The judgment that the 10 - year Treasury bond will fluctuate in the range of 1.5% - 1.8% remains unchanged. [6] - In terms of operations, continue to recommend 3 - and 5 - year credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, and seek opportunities for spread compression through short - end credit downgrading and long - end high - grade bonds. Long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds are more suitable for trading than allocation, and continue to buy on dips. The cost - performance ratio of the previously recommended ultra - long local bonds has slightly weakened, while that of policy - financial bonds has slightly increased. [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Strategy View: Looking for Opportunities along the Bond Market Pricing System - Last week, the funding situation was stable. Economic data was released, and the cuts in deposit rates and LPR were implemented. The auction result of the 50 - year Treasury bond was poor, and yields fluctuated within a narrow range. Throughout the week, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rose 1BP to 1.69% compared to the previous week, the 10 - year CDB bond yield fell 1BP to 1.74%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield remained unchanged at 1.92%. The 10 - 1 - year term spread widened, and credit spreads remained largely unchanged. [10] - The bond market has been in a narrow - range fluctuation pattern since the suspension of Sino - US tariffs. Last week's deposit - rate cut failed to break the bond - market equilibrium. Currently, investors generally believe that the bond market has a high probability of winning but a low odds ratio. The report explores bond - market pricing from multiple dimensions. [11] Comparison with Credit and Other Broad - Spectrum Interest Rates - The pricing of the bond market is basically reasonable. There is a transmission between bonds and deposits/loans through the price - comparison effect and institutional behavior. After the recent LPR cut, some banks maintained the original 3% mortgage rate for new mortgages. If 3% is the bottom line for mortgage rates, the 30 - year Treasury bond rate may have also bottomed out. Currently, the 30 - year Treasury bond is 2BP higher than the after - tax mortgage rate, with limited upside. [12][13] - In practice, three factors prevent a simple comparison between bonds and loans: different availability of the two types of assets, the influence of non - bank trading desks not being considered, and banks' asset - allocation decisions being affected by multiple factors other than just returns. The cut in deposit rates directly benefits non - bank bond allocation. In the future, banks will face increased difficulty in liability management. [14][15] Comparison with Overseas Markets - Chinese bonds have become a global interest - rate low - lying area, but the short - term adjustment risk is limited. Recently, the sharp rise in US and Japanese bond yields has attracted global attention. The root causes are the reshaping of the global financial order, high debt levels, tight monetary policies, and large - scale long - bond auctions. [2] - China's interest rates are at a global low, especially at the ultra - long end. However, there is no need to worry about Chinese bond yields rising in tandem with overseas markets in the short term, as the influence of overseas interest rates on the Chinese bond market is limited. In the process of global capital reallocation, Chinese bonds and stocks may be relatively beneficiary assets. In the long run (2 - 3 years), there are concerns about the repricing of term spreads. [2][22][26] Comparison with the Stock Market - The bond market has a lower cost - performance ratio compared to the stock market. Currently, the dividend yields of the CSI 300, the dividend index, and the Hang Seng High - Dividend Index are approximately 3.4%, 6.7%, and 8% respectively. Considering the tax - exemption effect of insurance investments in Hong Kong stocks, their value far exceeds that of investing in ultra - long bonds. [3] - In the past two years, the imbalance in the cost - performance ratio between stocks and bonds has persisted. The core reason is that stocks carry price - fluctuation risks while offering high dividends. If the stock market can maintain an upward - trending and less - volatile pattern, there is a possibility of bond - market funds gradually flowing into the stock market to achieve a balance between stocks and bonds. [3] Comparison of Spreads among Bond Market Varieties - Regarding the pricing model of policy rates → funds → short - end → long - end, currently, the role of the MLF policy rate has diminished, and OMO is the most important pricing anchor in the bond market. However, the current term spreads are relatively flat, making it difficult to price long - term and ultra - long - term bonds according to historical rules. In the future, it is difficult for the yield - curve shape to steepen trendily, and investors should focus on finding relative opportunities. [31][32] - In terms of credit spreads, in the context of debt resolution and stricter urban - investment supervision in recent years, the "scarcity of credit assets" has become more prominent. Credit spreads still have room for compression. Specifically, avoid 1 - year ordinary credit bonds for now; 3 - 5 - year credit spreads still offer good value, and high - grade (AAA) credit spreads over 5 years are relatively attractive. Currently, inter - bank certificates of deposit have a better cost - performance ratio than short - term credit bonds, but there may be supply - demand disturbances at certain times. [33][34] - The spreads among bond varieties have significantly compressed. Low - liquidity policy - financial bonds have a slightly better cost - performance ratio, while the cost - performance ratio of local bonds has slightly weakened. [40] This Week's Operation Suggestions - Currently, the bond - market pricing is reasonable compared to credit and other broad - spectrum interest rates, but has a lower cost - performance ratio compared to overseas markets and the stock market. The fundamentals are still in a state of differentiation and bottom - grinding. The decline in deposit rates is positive for non - bank allocation demand. The long - term trend of the bond market has not reversed, but the trading space is limited, and it remains in a narrow - range fluctuation pattern in the short term. [42] - The market lacks major catalysts, so only short - term information such as funds and institutional behavior can be traded. This week, pay attention to PMI and credit - demand data, which are expected to be relatively strong and slightly negative for bonds. In terms of funds, as this week enters the end - of - month trading period, the funding center may rise slightly, but the central bank is expected to provide active support. In terms of institutional behavior, the deposit - rate cut last week led to an increase in inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased subscriptions of funds by wealth - management products, indicating that deposit migration is occurring, providing real - world support for bond - market allocation demand. [42] - In the medium term, the decline in broad - spectrum interest rates will have a certain impact on the bond market. The low of the 10 - year Treasury bond this year is expected to be around 1.5%, but it may be difficult to break through in the second quarter. The upper limit is expected to be between 1.7% - 1.8%. Therefore, if there is further adjustment from the current level, consider entering the market for allocation. [42] - In terms of operations, continue to recommend 3 - and 5 - year credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, and seek opportunities for spread compression through short - end credit downgrading and long - end high - grade bonds. The narrow - range fluctuation pattern of long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, so continue to buy on dips. The cost - performance ratio of the previously recommended ultra - long local bonds has slightly weakened, while that of policy - financial bonds has slightly increased. Inter - bank certificates of deposit are initially in the allocation range, but may fluctuate at relatively high levels due to liability - side disturbances. [44] This Week's Core Focus This week, focus on China's industrial - enterprise profits in April, the official manufacturing PMI in May, the euro - zone economic sentiment index in May, the Fed's monetary - policy meeting minutes in May, the US PCE in April, and the end - of - month funding situation. [45]

存款利率下调信用债表现强势 中长端信用利差显著压缩 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 5 月 24 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | ] | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | | 邮 | 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 3存款利率下调信用债表现强势 中长端信用利差显著压 ...

施罗德投资固定收益投资总监吴美燕称，近期美债利率剧烈波动，引起投资者担忧。但她表示，对长期 投资者而言，短期市场的剧烈抛售行为，往往蕴藏布局机会。观察过去一年的债市表现，信用利差处于 相对低点，价值空间受限。近期随市场情势变化，信用利差扩大，债市即展现出吸引力，适合中长期布 局。 施罗德投资强调，过去一段时间，美国股债市场皆表现良好。然而，现阶段反而要积极通过地区及债券 品种的分散，才可有效降低投组波动，并且掌握长线债券投资机会。 施罗德指，在分散策略方面，暂时不便过分着墨于新兴市场，因其波动性较高，容易造成额外不安；相 反，欧洲与英国等成熟市场因其能够提供较为稳定的债券投资机会，也有降息带来债券价格上扬的可能 性，或可成为首选。 值得注意的是，当前有些投资者期望以现金或者黄金作为避险的选择。施罗德表示，市场的恐慌情绪固 然会让现金以及黄金具备短线吸引力，但这两项资产并不具备息收能力，黄金也存在价格波动风险。对 长期投资者来说，债券具有价格以及收息优势，才是真正具备核心资产配置特性的品种。整体而言，当 前虽然市场风险尚未完全消除，但在价格修正与价值显现的交会点上，既是危机也是转机，同时也是债 市中长期投资进场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and outlook of fixed income products and the bond market, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic factors and policy changes on investment strategies and opportunities [1][34]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Products - Recent performance of fixed income products shows that rights-embedded bond funds outperformed short-term bond funds and high-grade interbank certificates of deposit index funds in the past month, with returns of 0.62%, 0.19%, and 0.18% respectively [3][8]. - Cash management products yielded a return of 0.11%, indicating a stable but declining trend in cash product yields, which may approach 1% in the long term [1][38]. Bond Market Review - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with short-term rates stabilizing and long-term rates rising. The 10-year government bond yield increased to 1.68%, while the 1-year government bond yield rose to 1.45% [10][16]. - The easing of US-China tariffs has improved market risk appetite, leading to a slight market correction [10][30]. Market Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate a weak fluctuation in the bond market, with a potential for small adjustments. However, the long-term downtrend in interest rates remains intact, suggesting opportunities for investors to capitalize on market corrections [29][36]. - The 1-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate is expected to stabilize between 1.6% and 1.8% [29][30]. Investment Strategies - For investors focused on liquidity management, maintaining cash products and considering low-volatility financial products or short-term bond funds is recommended [38]. - For conservative investors, holding pure bond products and gradually increasing duration exposure is advisable, especially as the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7%-1.8% [39]. - For more aggressive investors, fixed income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets may present opportunities, with a focus on defensive convertible bond products over aggressive ones [40]. Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a plan to promote high-quality development in the public fund industry, emphasizing a shift from scale to return, and from short-term to long-term investment strategies [34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current bond market, short - term credit bond yield decline and spread narrowing space are limited. Traders can wait for a better position after market adjustment to participate in the game, and currently focus on certain coupon opportunities and consider allocation from the perspective of absolute yield [3][27] - Different investment strategies should be adopted according to the stability of the liability side. For those with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds; for those with strong liability - side stability, allocate 4 - 5y varieties [3][4][27] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. How to Allocate Credit Bonds after a Significant Narrowing of Spreads (1) Credit Bond Market Review - This week, the capital price was low at first and then high. The Sino - US economic and trade joint statement significantly reduced bilateral tax rates, boosting risk appetite. Under the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market was under pressure. Interest - rate bond yields rose across the board, while credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend and performed better than interest - rate bonds. Bank secondary and perpetual bonds with significantly narrowed spreads performed weakly, with yields rising slightly and spreads narrowing passively. The yields of other credit varieties generally declined for 1 - 4y and rose for 5 - 15y, with spreads narrowing significantly for 1 - 4y and passively narrowing for 5 - 15y, with a smaller narrowing amplitude at the long end [1][11] (2) Credit Strategy: Focus on Certain Coupon Opportunities - **Current Credit Spread Level**: 1 - 2y variety spreads have been compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term spreads still have some room compared to last year's lowest point. In a volatile bond market environment, the further compression space of credit spreads may be relatively limited [14][24] - **Current Credit Bond Yield Level**: Currently, the yields of various credit varieties can generally achieve positive carry. Different varieties have different yield levels compared to R007 [25] II. Key Policies and Hot Events - On May 15th, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which mentioned improving diversified investment and financing methods and encouraging financial institutions to participate in urban renewal [33] - On May 15th, Vanke announced that its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, would provide a loan of up to 1.552 billion yuan to the company to repay the principal and interest of bonds issued in the public market [33] - On May 13th, seven departments jointly issued policies to include high - quality enterprise science and technology innovation bonds in the benchmark market - making varieties to improve their liquidity [34] III. Secondary Market - This week, credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend, and credit spreads generally narrowed. Different types of bonds, such as urban investment bonds, real - estate bonds, cyclical bonds, and financial bonds, had different yield and spread changes [36][37] IV. Primary Market - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 122.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 30.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 24.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity in the inter - bank market and the exchange market of credit bonds increased. The trading volume in the inter - bank market increased from 432 billion yuan last week to 550.1 billion yuan, and the trading volume in the exchange market increased from 234.1 billion yuan last week to 336.2 billion yuan [6] VI. Rating Adjustment - This week, there were 2 entities with downgraded ratings and 3 entities with upgraded ratings [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, credit spreads in different industries were compressed to varying degrees, mainly due to the passive compression caused by the upward movement of the risk - free rate, and the adjustment of credit bonds may not have arrived yet [1][29][32]. - For urban investment bonds, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities were compressed this week, and maintaining a short - end sinking coupon strategy still has a relative advantage [1][38]. - For industrial bonds, the credit spreads of industrial bonds were generally compressed this week. In the current environment, a defensive approach is still recommended, and attention should be paid to the coupon income of high - grade short - duration industrial bonds [1][29][38]. - For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank capital bonds with different ratings and maturities were generally compressed this week, with a small number of maturities and varieties slightly widening. It is recommended to continue to focus on short - duration and highly liquid bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds for defense [1][32][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Overview - **Primary Market**: This week, the issuance volume, repayment volume, and net financing of credit bonds increased compared with last week. The issuance rates of AAA - rated urban investment bonds and AA + - rated industrial bonds increased, while the issuance rates of other bonds decreased to varying degrees [3][6][10]. - **Secondary Market**: This week, the trading volume of credit bonds increased by 335 billion yuan compared with last week, and the turnover rate of traditional credit bonds generally increased. The yields of credit bonds showed a trend of short - end decline and long - end increase. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank capital bonds were generally compressed, with a small number of bank capital bond maturities and varieties slightly widening [3][13][14]. 3.2 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale**: This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 77.3 billion yuan, an increase of 56.3 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing of urban investment bonds was - 2.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.2 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 45.6 billion yuan, an increase of 300 million yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 34.3 billion yuan, an increase of 78.1 billion yuan [6]. - **Issuance Cost**: This week, the issuance rates of AAA - rated urban investment bonds and AA + - rated industrial bonds increased, while the issuance rates of other bonds decreased to varying degrees. The issuance rate of AA - rated urban investment bonds decreased the most, by 44 BP compared with last week [10][12][13]. 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: This week, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 335 billion yuan compared with last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased by 30.3 billion yuan, 113.6 billion yuan, and 191.1 billion yuan respectively. The trading volume of asset - backed securities increased by 7.6 billion yuan [13]. - **Turnover Rate**: This week, the turnover rate of credit bonds generally increased compared with last week. The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, financial bonds, and asset - backed securities increased by 0.19 pct, 0.67 pct, 1.36 pct, and 0.22 pct respectively [14]. - **Yield**: This week, the yields of credit bonds showed a trend of short - end decline and long - end increase. The yields of credit bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year decreased by 4 - 6 BP, those with a maturity of 1 - 3 years decreased by 2 - 4 BP, and those with a maturity of 3 - 5 years fluctuated by no more than 1 BP. The yields of credit bonds with a maturity of 5 - 7 years, 7 - 10 years, and over 10 years increased by 0 - 5 BP [18]. - **Credit Spread**: - **Industry - wide**: This week, credit spreads in different industries were compressed to varying degrees. The spreads of the AA + electronics industry and the AAA agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry were significantly compressed [21]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities were compressed. The credit spreads of 0.5 - 1Y, 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, 5 - 10Y, and over 10Y urban investment bonds were compressed by 6 BP, 8 BP, 7 BP, 5 BP, and 2 BP respectively [25]. - **Industrial Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of industrial bonds were generally compressed. The credit spreads of 10Y private placement industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds of different ratings were compressed by 1 - 2 BP compared with last week, while the compression of other maturities was 5 BP or more [29]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of bank capital bonds with different ratings and maturities were generally compressed, with a small number of maturities and varieties slightly widening [32]. 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinion - The "23 Xinjie 01" issued by Xinjie Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. was extended; the "H20 Technology 1" issued by Wuhan Contemporary Technology Investment Co., Ltd. was extended; Xi'an Qujiang Cultural Holding Co., Ltd. was put on the watch list, and its "20 Quwengkong Bond 01" and "21 Quwengkong Bond 01" were also put on the watch list; the "Shengxun Convertible Bond" issued by Beijing Shengxun Electronic Co., Ltd. was put on the watch list [1][37]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - For urban investment bonds, maintain a short - end sinking coupon strategy [1][38]. - For industrial bonds, adopt a defensive approach and focus on the coupon income of high - grade short - duration industrial bonds [1][29][38]. - For bank capital bonds, focus on short - duration and highly liquid bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds for defense [1][32][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Long - term credit bonds adjusted with interest rates, while short - term credit bond spreads significantly compressed. This week, affected by the easing of Sino - US trade tariff policies, market interest rates fluctuated upward. Credit bond trends were differentiated, with long - end yields adjusting with interest rates and medium - short - end yields falling. Credit spreads of various types of credit bonds compressed, with short - term varieties having a larger decline [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads declined. Spreads of urban investment bonds generally decreased this week, with different levels of decline for platforms of different external subject ratings and in different regions and administrative levels [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads generally declined, and the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds significantly compressed. Central and local state - owned real estate bond spreads decreased, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads dropped significantly, and private real - estate bond spreads slightly increased. Spreads of coal, chemical, and steel bonds also declined [2][19]. - Secondary and perpetual bond spreads were generally stable, and their overall performance was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds. Most yields of secondary and perpetual bonds followed the interest rate upward, with only some weakly - qualified varieties slightly falling [2][29]. - Industrial perpetual excess spreads were basically flat, and urban investment perpetual excess spreads slightly declined [2][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Long - term credit bonds adjusted with interest rates, short - term credit bond spreads significantly compressed - Market interest rates fluctuated upward. 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y maturity China Development Bank bond yields increased by 3BP, 3BP, 6BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively [2][5]. - Credit bond trends were differentiated. 1Y maturity credit bond yields of all grades decreased by 3 - 6BP, 3Y maturity yields decreased by 0 - 2BP, 5Y maturity yields increased by 1 - 2BP, and 7Y and 10Y maturity yields increased by 2 - 3BP [2][5]. - Credit spreads compressed. 1Y maturity credit bond spreads of all grades decreased by 6 - 9BP, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y maturity spreads decreased by 3 - 5BP, and 10Y maturity spreads decreased by 2BP. Rating spreads and term spreads were differentiated [2][5]. 2. Urban investment bond spreads declined - Spreads of different rating platforms declined. AAA - rated platform credit spreads decreased by 7BP, while AA+ and AA - rated platform spreads decreased by 8BP [2][9]. - Regional spreads showed different declines. In different provinces, spreads of AAA - rated platforms mostly decreased by 6 - 8BP, AA+ - rated platforms mostly decreased by 7 - 9BP, and AA - rated platforms mostly decreased by 6 - 8BP. Different regions had different decline amplitudes [9][11][12]. - Spreads of different administrative levels declined. Provincial, municipal, and district - county - level platform credit spreads decreased by 7BP, 7BP, and 8BP respectively [2][15]. 3. Industrial bond spreads generally declined, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads significantly compressed - Real estate bond spreads varied. Central and local state - owned real estate bond spreads decreased by 6 - 7BP, mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads decreased by 104BP, and private real - estate bond spreads increased by 4BP. Spreads of some real - estate companies like Longfor and Vanke also changed [2][19]. - Spreads of other industrial bonds declined. Spreads of coal, chemical, and steel bonds decreased, with coal and chemical bonds decreasing by 7BP and steel bonds decreasing by 8BP [2][19]. 4. Secondary and perpetual bond spreads were generally stable, overall performance was weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds - Yields and spreads of different terms and grades changed. 1Y maturity secondary capital bonds and AA+ and above perpetual bonds' yields increased by 2 - 3BP, with spreads decreasing by 0 - 1BP; AA - rated perpetual bond yields decreased by 1BP, with spreads decreasing by 4BP. Similar changes occurred in 3Y and 5Y maturity bonds [2][29]. 5. Industrial perpetual excess spreads were basically flat, urban investment perpetual excess spreads slightly declined - Industrial perpetual excess spreads were stable. The AAA3Y excess spread was 11.71BP, at the 20.54% quantile since 2015, and the AAA5Y excess spread was 9.22BP, at the 9.54% quantile [2][32]. - Urban investment perpetual excess spreads declined slightly. The AAA3Y urban investment perpetual bond excess spread decreased by 0.03BP to 7.25BP, at the 3.45% quantile; the AAA5Y excess spread decreased by 0.89BP to 10.56BP, at the 9.68% quantile [2][32]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market credit spreads and related excess spreads were calculated based on ChinaBond medium - short - term notes and perpetual bonds data, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015. Credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds were compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D center of Cinda Securities, also with historical quantiles starting from 2015 [38]. - Calculation methods were provided for industrial and urban investment individual bond credit spreads, bank secondary capital bond/perpetual bond excess spreads, and industrial/urban investment perpetual bond excess spreads [38][39]. - Sample selection criteria were given, including selecting medium - term notes and public corporate bonds, excluding guaranteed and perpetual bonds, and removing bonds with remaining maturities below 0.5 years or above 5 years. Different rating types were used for different bond types [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the current situation in various industries, including production, service, upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors, as well as market pricing. It also provides data on industry credit spreads and key industry price indicators [1][2][3][4][5][50][51]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Production and Service Industries - **Production Industry**: In the first four months of this year, the imports of the equipment manufacturing industry in the nine mainland cities of the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area increased. The total import and export value reached 2.85 trillion yuan, a 5.4% increase, accounting for 96.4% of Guangdong's total. Exports of "new three items" and motorcycles increased by over 40%, while imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, computers and components, and some consumer goods grew rapidly [1]. - **Service Industry**: In April, M2 increased year - on - year. Guangzhou issued measures to promote the high - quality development of elderly care finance. At the end of April, the balance of broad money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. The balance of local and foreign currency loans was 269.54 trillion yuan, a 6.8% year - on - year increase. The balance of RMB loans was 265.7 trillion yuan, a 7.2% year - on - year increase, and RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan in the first four months [1]. 3.2 Upstream Industries - **Energy**: After the tariff war, international oil prices continued to rise [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The price of aluminum has been rising recently [2]. - **Ferrous Metals**: The price of glass dropped in the short term [2]. 3.3 Mid - stream Industries - **Chemical Industry**: The PX operating rate declined seasonally, while the polyester operating rate remained high [3]. 3.4 Downstream Industries - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities decreased [4]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights decreased compared to the same period [4]. 3.5 Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the entire industry declined slightly recently [5]. 3.6 Industry Credit Spreads - The report provides week - to - week and historical data on the credit spreads of multiple industries, including agriculture, mining, chemical, and others. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry decreased from 77.76 last week to 66.88 this week [50]. 3.7 Key Industry Price Indicators - The report tracks the prices of various products in different industries such as agriculture, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, and chemicals. For instance, the spot price of WTI crude oil was $63.7 per barrel on May 14, a 7.75% year - on - year increase [51].

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 把握住中短久期品种的确定性 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 央行"双降"落地后信用债市场呈现"短端修复、长端观望"特征，5 月 7 日-9 日短端信用品 种收益率明显下行（1Y 品种下行 7-11bp），预计后续仍有 5-6bp 压缩空间，而中长久期表现偏 弱（5YAAA 城投仅下行 3.3bp），配置窗口或于 5 月中下旬开启。当前市场更依赖交易盘博弈 高流动性品种，基金已出现"抢跑式"布局 1-3Y 和 3-5Y 信用债，随着短端利差收窄，后续加 仓中高等级长久期品种的力度可能增强。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 把握住中短久期品种的确定性 [Table_Summa] "短端修复，长端观望"的新特征 5 月 5 日-5 月 9 日期间，央行"双降"（降准+降 ...