Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices are oscillating. It is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand situation in December, with prices fluctuating in the range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support at 8000 yuan/ton and coal price changes [1]. Polysilicon - Spot prices are stable, and the main contract has risen. Although new delivery brands are beneficial for increasing deliverable volume and warehouse receipts, considering weak demand and a large decline in production, polysilicon futures may still oscillate at a high level, and the spot is still under pressure [2]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is oscillating strongly in the game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillation, with the main contract reference range moving down to 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton. Aluminum is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum oscillating in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - Market sentiment is positive, and the fundamentals are strong. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend throughout the year, and a bullish view on tin prices is maintained [6]. Zinc - With the decline of TC, the supply pressure is relieved, and the short - term price has limited downward space. The export of refined zinc drives the spot to tighten, boosting domestic zinc prices. The short - term Shanghai zinc price trend may be stronger than that of London zinc, and the main contract should focus on the support at 23000 - 23200 [8]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance of global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, and price fluctuations may intensify. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction of copper still exists, supporting the gradual upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices [10]. Nickel - Macro factors are temporarily stable. After the valuation repair of nickel prices, the price driving force weakens. In the medium term, the loose fundamentals restrict the upward space of prices. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116000 - 120000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Macro factors are temporarily stable, the supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand in the off - season is weak, and inventory reduction is not smooth. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract operating range of 12400 - 12800 [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. Although the fundamentals have not changed much, the market is affected by news of slower - than - expected upstream resumption of production. In the short term, it may maintain a strong oscillation under the drive of capital sentiment [18]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: On December 11, the prices of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged compared with the previous day, while the basis of each variety declined [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The average prices of N - type re - feeding materials, N - type granular silicon, and N - type silicon wafers - 210mm remained unchanged on December 11, while the average price of N - type silicon wafers - 210R increased by 4.24% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: On December 12, the prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions increased by 0.46% - 0.47% compared with the previous day, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in various regions also showed an upward trend [3]. - **Aluminum**: On December 12, the price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55% compared with the previous day, and the average price of alumina in various regions showed a downward trend [4]. - **Tin**: On December 12, the price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1.04% compared with the previous day, and the SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 66.67% [6]. - **Zinc**: On December 12, the price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.17% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss improved [8]. - **Copper**: On December 12, the prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper, SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper, and SMM wet - process copper increased by 1.05% - 1.22% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss worsened [10]. - **Nickel**: On December 12, the prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and 1 imported nickel decreased by 0.21% - 0.26% compared with the previous day, and the import profit and loss of futures worsened [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 12, the price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.39% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On December 12, the average prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. increased to varying degrees compared with the previous day [18]. Month - to - Month Price Differences - **Industrial Silicon**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. showed significant changes on December 11, with some increasing by more than 100% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The price differences between the main contract, current - month - to - first - continuous, etc. changed on December 11, with the current - month - to - first - continuous increasing by 1166.67% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price differences between AL 2512 - 2601, AL 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [4]. - **Tin**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [6]. - **Zinc**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [8]. - **Copper**: The price differences between 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, etc. changed on December 12 [10]. - **Nickel**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price differences between 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603, etc. changed on December 12 [18]. Fundamental Data - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon output decreased by 11.17% month - on - month, and the outputs of Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The outputs of organic silicon DMC and regenerative aluminum alloy increased, while the outputs of polysilicon and the export volume of industrial silicon decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In November, the polysilicon output decreased by 14.48% month - on - month, the import volume increased by 11.96%, and the export volume decreased by 27.99%. The silicon wafer output decreased by 10.35% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the output of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74% month - on - month, the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%, and the output of scrap aluminum increased by 11.45%. In October, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 7.06%, and the export volume increased by 31.49% [3]. - **Aluminum**: In November, the alumina output decreased by 4.44% month - on - month, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 2.82%, and the overseas electrolytic aluminum output decreased by 3.50%. In October, the electrolytic aluminum import volume increased by 0.61%, and the export volume decreased by 15.18% [4]. - **Tin**: In October, the tin ore import volume increased by 33.49%, the SMM refined tin output increased by 53.09%, the refined tin import volume decreased by 58.55%, and the export volume decreased by 15.33% [6]. - **Zinc**: In November, the refined zinc output decreased by 3.56% month - on - month. In October, the refined zinc import volume decreased by 16.94%, and the export volume increased by 243.79% [8]. - **Copper**: In November, the electrolytic copper output increased by 1.05% month - on - month. In October, the electrolytic copper import volume decreased by 15.61% [10]. - **Nickel**: In November, the Chinese refined nickel output decreased by 9.38% month - on - month, and the refined nickel import volume decreased by 65.66% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: In November, the output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.72%, and the output of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel increased by 0.36%. The stainless steel import volume increased by 3.18%, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, the lithium carbonate output increased by 3.35% month - on - month, the demand increased by 5.11%, the import volume increased by 21.86%, and the export volume increased by 63.05% [18]. Inventory Changes - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly factory - warehouse inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased slightly, the weekly social inventory increased by 0.54%, the daily warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 11.40%, and the non - warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.28% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.69%, the silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.39%, and the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 7.58% [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The weekly social inventory of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.08%, the daily inventory in Foshan decreased by 0.28%, the daily inventory in Ningbo increased by 3.91%, and the daily inventory in Wuxi decreased by 28.57% [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.01%, the Chinese aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 3.72%, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased by 0.15%, the alumina plant's in - house inventory increased by 1.72%, the alumina port inventory increased by 2.36%, the LME inventory decreased by 0.39% [4]. - **Tin**: The SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96%, the social inventory increased by 2.39%, the SHEF daily warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 1.78%, and the LME daily inventory increased by 1.09% [6]. - **Zinc**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 8.62%, and the LME inventory increased by 0.92% [8]. - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory increased by 2.58%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 2.58%, the SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22%, the LME inventory decreased by 0.42%, the COMEX inventory increased by 0.48%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 8.74% [10]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory increased by 4.23%, the social inventory increased by 2.71%, the bonded - area inventory remained unchanged, the LME inventory decreased by 0.09%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.69%, the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.08%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.20% [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 23.36%, the downstream inventory decreased by 21.13%, and the smelter inventory decreased by 27.19% [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the LME cash - 3m spread rose significantly due to a large increase in cancelled warrants in Asia, causing short - term market panic. The copper price exceeded $11,000 again, with a structural supply - demand gap and uneven global inventory distribution. In China, consumption slowed due to high prices, and a slight inventory build - up is expected until the Spring Festival. The overall idea is to buy on dips, with the price expected to range from $10,800 to $12,000 in December [1]. - For aluminum, overseas interest - rate cut expectations are beneficial to the overall trend. Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, while aluminum products continued to reduce inventory. The end - of - year demand was good. Supply and demand are expected to be loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. - For zinc, the price rose this week. The supply of domestic zinc ore is expected to tighten from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, and many smelters will undergo maintenance in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while overseas demand in the US has increased. The recommendation is to wait and see for single - sided trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [4][5][6]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand was weak, and both domestic and overseas inventories continued to build up. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel mining sector, short - selling opportunities on price rallies are worth attention [7][8]. - For stainless steel, steel mills maintained high production, demand was mainly for essential needs, and inventory remained at a high level. Considering the price - support motivation from Indonesian policies, short - selling opportunities on price rallies are recommended [11]. - For lead, the price stopped falling and rebounded. The supply of primary lead remained high, and the supply of recycled lead increased. Demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 yuan next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12][13]. - For tin, the price was lifted by the overall non - ferrous market. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the long - term but with limited elasticity. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it can be considered as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous sector in the first half of 2026 [16]. - For industrial silicon, the market oscillated weakly this week. The supply and demand are balanced in December, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [18]. - For lithium carbonate, the futures price dropped significantly this week. The supply and demand are both strong in the short - term. However, due to high inventory in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the upside potential depends on inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [20]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Spread**: The LME cash - 3m spread increased significantly, and the copper price exceeded $11,000 again. The domestic spot premium decreased, and the import profit window was still restricted [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 875 tons, and cancelled warrants increased by 1,250 tons. In China, the inventory is expected to build up slightly until the Spring Festival [1]. - **Outlook**: The overall idea is to buy on dips, with the price expected to range from $10,800 to $12,000 in December [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The aluminum price increased slightly, and the spot basis declined. The import profit improved slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat at 113,335 tons, while LME inventory decreased by 2,050 tons [1]. - **Outlook**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are beneficial. Supply and demand are expected to be loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The zinc price rose, and the LME 0 - 3M premium decreased from $224 to $163 [4][5][6]. - **Supply**: Domestic and imported TC decreased rapidly. Many smelters will undergo maintenance in December, and the production is expected to decrease by 15,000 - 18,000 tons [6]. - **Demand**: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while overseas demand in the US has increased [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for single - sided trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [6]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The nickel price decreased slightly, and the import profit improved [7]. - **Supply**: The production of pure nickel decreased slightly [7]. - **Demand**: The overall demand was weak, but the Jinchuan premium was strong [7]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and overseas inventories continued to build up [7]. - **Strategy**: With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel mining sector, short - selling opportunities on price rallies are worth attention [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained stable, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 30 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: Steel mills maintained high production [11]. - **Demand**: Demand was mainly for essential needs [11]. - **Inventory**: Inventory remained at a high level [11]. - **Strategy**: Considering the price - support motivation from Indonesian policies, short - selling opportunities on price rallies are recommended [11]. Lead - **Price**: The lead price stopped falling and rebounded to around 17,000 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: The supply of primary lead remained high, and the supply of recycled lead increased by about 4,000 - 5,000 tons this week [13]. - **Demand**: The battery production rate remained flat, and the demand is expected to weaken [13]. - **Inventory**: The five - region social inventory decreased to 23,600 tons [13]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 yuan next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [13]. Tin - **Price**: The tin price was lifted by the overall non - ferrous market [16]. - **Supply**: The processing fee of tin ore remained low, and the overseas production recovery was slow. However, high prices stimulated inventory exports [16]. - **Demand**: The demand was mainly supported by rigidity, and the downstream's acceptable price level increased [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it can be considered as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous sector in the first half of 2026 [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The market oscillated weakly, and the actual transaction price of some grades was around 9,400 - 9,500 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply**: Southwest producers reduced production to support prices, while northern producers maintained stable production [18]. - **Demand**: Terminal procurement enthusiasm was average, and transactions were mainly based on low - price point - pricing [18]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are balanced in December, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price increased slightly [20]. - **Supply**: The upstream inventory continued to decrease, and the delivery to warehouses was slow [20]. - **Demand**: Downstream material factories were mainly purchasing for essential needs, and the spot - trading activity increased as the price declined [20]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are both strong in the short - term. However, due to high inventory in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the upside potential depends on inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [20].

Core Viewpoint - As of the week ending December 11, China's methanol production reached 2,039,705 tons, reflecting an increase of 16,240 tons from the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.81%, up by 0.81% week-on-week [1] Production and Inventory - China's methanol production for the specified week was 2,039,705 tons, which is an increase of 16,240 tons compared to the previous week [1] - The capacity utilization rate for methanol production facilities was reported at 89.81%, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.81% [1] - The inventory level of sample production enterprises was 352,800 tons, which decreased by 8,700 tons, representing a 2.40% decline compared to the previous period [1] Orders and Demand - Sample enterprises had 207,500 tons of orders pending shipment, which is a reduction of 32,200 tons, indicating a 13.45% decrease from the previous period [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish on rebounds [1] - L: Bearish trend continues [1] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1] - PVC: Bearish trend continues [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid short - selling [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Bottom - side oscillation [3] - Methanol: Cautiously avoid short - selling [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish trend continues [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish trend continues [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical uncertainties, and cost - end fluctuations. For most products, there are concerns about oversupply and downward pressure on prices, while some products also face weakening demand expectations [1][3][5]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 0.36%, Brent rising 0.44%, and SC falling 1.11%. As of December 5, the US oil rig count increased by 6 to 413. The EIA expects US oil demand to be 2059 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2058 million barrels per day in 2026. As of December 5, US crude inventories decreased by 1.812 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels [7][8][10]. - **Logic**: The surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the oil price rebound is bearish. Geopolitical uncertainties in South America have increased, and the US has seized a Venezuelan oil tanker. It is the off - season with supply surplus, as the consumption off - season coincides with the OPEC+ expansion cycle, global floating storage and in - transit crude oil have surged, and US crude and refined product inventories have both increased [1][9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [435 - 445] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 10, the PG main contract closed at 4232 yuan/ton, a 1.01% decline. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4370 (-80) yuan/ton, 4424 (+32) yuan/ton, and 4440 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [13][14]. - **Logic**: The cost - end oil price drags down the LPG, and its trend is weak. The crude oil cost is in an oscillatory adjustment with a downward trend. On the supply - demand side, refinery operations have recovered, the commodity volume has increased, and downstream chemical demand has resilience. The inventory situation has improved, with port and in - plant inventories decreasing month - on - month [1][15]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4250 - 4350] [16]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton (-8); North China Ningmei was at 6730 yuan/ton (-30); the basis was +31 yuan/ton (-22); and the warehouse receipt was 11701 lots (+0) [18][19]. - **Logic**: Cost support has strengthened, the futures price has rebounded from an oversold level, but the spot price has not followed up sufficiently, and the futures price has shifted to a premium structure. Domestic operations have seasonally recovered, and the supply side remains sufficient. After late November, the peak season for shed films has gradually ended, and demand support is insufficient. The oil price still has a downward risk in the medium term, and cost support is weak [20]. - **Strategy**: Exit short positions due to improved market sentiment. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [20]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton (-52), the East China drawn wire market price was 6354 yuan/ton (-24), the basis was +89 yuan/ton (+28), and the warehouse receipt was 15518 lots (-150) [22][23]. - **Logic**: The shutdown ratio has increased, and supply pressure has eased. However, both domestic and foreign demand support is insufficient, and there is still high pressure to reduce inventory in the future. OPEC+ is still in the production - expansion cycle, and the oil price still faces a continued downward risk in the medium term. Propylene warehouse receipts have been produced for the first time, and the futures price may be weak [24]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be strong in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term, or go long on the PP processing fee 01. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] and propylene [5850 - 6000] [24]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5); the Changzhou spot price was 4510 yuan/ton (-); the 01 basis was -76 yuan/ton (-5), and the warehouse receipt was 127934 lots (+2856) [25][26]. - **Logic**: Operations have remained at a high level, and the main contract hit a record low at night. During the macro - policy window period, trading has returned to the weak fundamentals. Social inventory remains at a high level, and there is insufficient upward momentum. However, due to low - valuation support and continuous compression of the chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit, the downward space for the futures price is limited. Pay attention to the rhythm of capital position - shifting and contract - changing [27]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of V [4350 - 4500] [27]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 was at 4752 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4704 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4700 yuan/ton [28]. - **Logic**: The processing fee is generally low, and the PTA device maintenance intensity is high, which has alleviated the supply - side pressure. Downstream demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak. The cost - end support has weakened. In the short term, supply and demand are tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [29]. - **Strategy**: The 01 contract is under pressure but has bottom support. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract at low levels or conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of TA [4600 - 4660] [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The overall domestic ethylene glycol device operating load has decreased, and overseas devices have also slightly reduced their loads [32]. - **Logic**: Both domestic and overseas devices have generally reduced their loads, and demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak. Supply and demand have improved in the short term, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. The valuation of ethylene glycol is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. It fluctuates with the cost in the short term and operates in a low - level oscillation [32]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3620 - 3700] [33]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: MA01 was at 2077 yuan/ton, MA05 at 2209 yuan/ton, and MA09 at 2179 yuan/ton [34]. - **Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of the spot price. The domestic methanol device operating load has increased to a high level in the same period. Overseas devices have continuously reduced their loads. Port inventory has been continuously reduced from a high level, but the reduction speed has slowed down. The demand side has changed little, and the cost - end support has weakened. The fundamentals of methanol remain weak [35]. - **Strategy**: Cautiously bearish on the 01 contract. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract at low levels. Pay attention to the range of MA01 [2035 - 2085] [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR01 was at 1673 yuan/ton, UR05 at 1736 yuan/ton, and UR09 at 1752 yuan/ton [38]. - **Logic**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has strengthened. The daily urea output is as high as 192,500 tons. It is expected that the supply - side pressure will ease in mid - December as some gas - head enterprises stop production for maintenance. The short - term demand is relatively good but lacks sustainability. Social inventory has slightly decreased but remains at a high level in the same period. Since July, urea exports have maintained a high growth rate. In the context of the "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea price has a ceiling and a floor. The domestic urea fundamentals are still loose [39]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously. Pay attention to the range of UR [1620 - 1660] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On December 9, the NG main contract closed at 4.574 US dollars per million British thermal units, a 6.88% decline. The US Henry Hub spot was at 5.290 (-0.270) US dollars per million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot was at 9.460 (-0.173) US dollars per million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was at 4054 (-49) yuan/ton [43][44]. - **Logic**: The demand side has entered the consumption peak season. The extremely cold weather in the US has boosted heating demand, and the gas price has strengthened. However, the gas price has reached a high level in recent years, and the upward pressure has increased [45]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.425 - 4.912] [46]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 10, the BU main contract closed at 2922 yuan/ton, a 0.20% decline. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 2930 (+0) yuan/ton, 3150 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3010 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [48][49]. - **Logic**: The trend is mainly anchored to the cost - end crude oil. Recently, affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation, the oil price has dropped significantly. The South American geopolitical situation has also eased recently, and the asphalt price still has room for compression [50]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2900 - 3000] [51]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16); the Hubei market price was at 1130 yuan/ton (0); the basis was 77 yuan/ton (+16); and the SA - FG01 spread was 162 yuan/ton (+5) [53][54]. - **Logic**: The daily melting volume has declined again, and there are still plans to cold - repair multiple production lines in December. The current daily melting volume has dropped to 155,000 tons, driving the slow reduction of high - level factory inventory. In October, the real - estate price and volume accelerated their decline, and deep - processing orders remained at a low level in the same period. Weak demand restricts the rebound space [55]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair in the short term, and the futures price may continue to be strong. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of FG [1020 - 1070] [55]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton (+25); the Shahe heavy - quality soda ash market price was at 1200 yuan/ton (+30), the basis was -39 yuan/ton (+5), and the warehouse receipt was 1354 lots (+0) [57][58]. - **Logic**: Warehouse receipts have continued to increase at a high level, and industrial hedging has exerted pressure. The fundamentals show a double - reduction in supply and demand, and factory inventory has declined from a high level. Some devices have been overhauled or reduced their loads, and production has slightly declined. The cold - repair of float glass has increased, and demand has declined. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass has dropped to 248,000 tons. In the medium - to - long term, it is in the high - production - capacity cycle, and the supply will remain in a loose pattern [59]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the 01 soda - glass spread. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the domestic pure benzene has a large real - time arrival pressure, with port inventory accelerating accumulation. The overseas gasoline shortage has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market is still being repaired. Downstream提货 is weak, and downstream开工 is further decreasing in the off - season. Styrene maintains low - load maintenance, CPL开工 drops to the lowest level of the year, phenol开工 rebounds, and aniline and adipic acid开工 fluctuate within a range [3]. - For styrene, port inventory further declines, and the port basis remains strong. Styrene maintains low - level operation, port inventory continues to decrease, and downstream提货 is acceptable. The downstream开工 shows differentiation. EPS开工 rebounds slightly in the off - season but still has inventory pressure; ABS开工 decreases due to continuous finished - product inventory pressure; PS开工 continues to rise at the end of the year as the finished - product inventory pressure eases [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 130 yuan/ton (+12), and the spot - M2 paper cargo spread is - 150 yuan/ton (+35 yuan/ton). The EB main contract basis is 156 yuan/ton (- 48 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 116 US dollars/ton (+2 US dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 US dollars/ton (+1 US dollar/ton). The pure benzene US - South Korea price difference is 195.0 US dollars/ton (+14.0 US dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 140 yuan/ton (- 121 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+3.60 million tons), and styrene East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (- 13,800 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (- 8,600 tons). Pure benzene开工 rate data is not provided, and styrene开工 rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 191 yuan/ton (+153 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 9 yuan/ton (+153 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 776 yuan/ton (+89 yuan/ton). EPS开工 rate is 56.36% (+1.61%), PS开工 rate is 59.00% (+1.40%), and ABS开工 rate is 68.30% (- 2.90%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 360 yuan/ton (+90), phenol - ketone production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+25), aniline production profit is 848 yuan/ton (+95), and adipic acid production profit is - 1,129 yuan/ton (+59). Caprolactam开工 rate is 79.15% (- 7.53%), phenol开工 rate is 82.00% (+1.00%), aniline开工 rate is 77.23% (+0.04%), and adipic acid开工 rate is 60.00% (+0.60%) [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: None - Basis and Inter - period: Conduct inter - period positive arbitrage for EB2601 - EB2602 at low prices. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks, but there are many floating storage tanks. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the 01 contract will end with high inventories. It is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventories, while social inventories remain flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profits are around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. LD prices are weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [3]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profits are around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral. PDH profits are around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable.拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity commissioning and export sustainability. Near - term export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. Attention should be paid to subsequent export orders for caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profits are - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of methanol in different regions and related indicators such as import profits, basis, and MTO profits changed. For example, the import profit on December 4 was 7, and on December 10, the basis was 25 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Iranian plants have shut down, causing a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas. Ports have seen two consecutive weeks of inventory reduction, but there are many floating storage tanks. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. The 01 contract on the futures market offers an import risk - free arbitrage opportunity [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, various types of polyethylene in different regions, and related indicators such as import profits, basis, and two - oil inventories changed. For example, the import profit on December 4 was 139, and on December 10, the basis was - 30 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventories, while social inventories remain flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. Import profits are around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. LD prices are weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently [3]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asian propylene, various types of polypropylene in different regions, and related indicators such as export profits, basis, and two - oil inventories changed. For example, the export profit on December 4 was - 4, and on December 10, the basis was - 70 [3]. - **Market Situation**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profits are around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral. PDH profits are around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Future supply is expected to increase slightly [3]. PVC - **Price Data**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, various types of PVC in different regions, and related indicators such as export profits, comprehensive profits, and basis changed. For example, the export profit on December 4 was 179, and on December 10, the basis was - 20 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls. Near - term export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, which is expected to improve global liquidity in the short - term and boost risk assets. A - shares may have short - term upward opportunities, but high - level chasing should be treated with caution [3]. - The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed its peak, and the bond futures may return to a sideways trend in the short - term. There is a possibility of a phased rebound in the bond market later, and investors are advised to wait and see for now [3]. - Precious metals have increased fluctuations, and short - term gold prices need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Daily Selected Views - **Bullish**: Tin (SN2601) is expected to be sideways with an upward bias; Methanol (MA2601) and rebar (rb2501) are expected to be sideways with an upward bias at the bottom [3]. - **Bearish**: Corn (C2601) is expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3]. 3.2 All - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, short - term global liquidity expectations will improve, and A - shares have short - term upward opportunities. It is recommended to go long intraday but be cautious about high - level chasing, and consider using protective options or bull spread strategies [3]. - **Bond Futures**: The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed, and bond futures may return to a sideways trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference. Positive arbitrage opportunities between TL and TF2603 contracts can be gradually considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are fluctuating in the range of $4150 - 4260 and need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion after a rapid rise. It is recommended to use a virtual option double - selling strategy for gold and be cautious about chasing high prices for silver [3]. 3.2.2 Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices have stopped falling and are expected to continue to move sideways. Iron ore is expected to weaken from its high - level sideways movement, and coking coal and coke are also expected to be bearish [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, long - term long positions can be held. Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate decision, and it is recommended to take profits for previous long positions and then go long again. For other non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are provided according to their respective fundamentals [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Polysilicon futures are rising, while industrial silicon prices are falling. PX has support at low levels, while PTA and short - fiber are expected to be weak in the short - term. Different trading strategies are recommended for various chemical products based on their supply - demand situations [3]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is expected to be sideways with a downward bias, while soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to move in a narrow range. Palm oil has broken through support levels, and its main contract is testing the support at 8500 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to be sideways with an upward bias in the short - term due to pickling demand [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar is expected to move sideways at the bottom, cotton is expected to be sideways with an upward bias, and eggs are expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore fluctuated, the monthly spread was at a historical low, strengthened slightly on Friday, the basis weakened and then strengthened slightly on Friday; the cracking spread of European HSFO fluctuated weakly, and the EW spread fluctuated. The cracking spread of 0.5% fuel oil in Singapore weakened, with the monthly spread and basis fluctuating at low levels. [3] - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had a slight inventory draw - down, ARA's residue oil had a slight inventory build - up, Fujairah's residue oil had a significant inventory build - up, high - sulfur floating storage had an inventory draw - down, and EIA's residue oil had a slight inventory build - up. [3] - With the increasing expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, the cracking spreads of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline this week, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel continued to rebound. After the fire at Al Zour refinery on October 21, the external low - sulfur fuel oil was supported, but the short - term upside space was limited. [4] - The global heavy - oil market entered the off - season with inventory build - up. The external cracking spread was affected by crude oil fluctuations, and there was no improvement in the spot market. FU01 should be treated bearishly. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil was low but there was no driving force. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 dropped from 348.42 to 335.47, a decrease of 4.32; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 dropped from 390.01 to 381.64, a decrease of 3.04. [1] - The Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 spread changed by 0.06, the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 11.68, the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 8.64, the LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.96, and the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.28. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 dropped from 345.72 to 341.31, a decrease of 11.08; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 dropped from 350.42 to 349.84, a decrease of 9.74; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 dropped from 419.63 to 416.32, a decrease of 10.14. [1] - The price of Singapore GO M1 dropped from 83.93 to 83.59, a decrease of 1.87; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 spread decreased by 0.31, and the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 3.69. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the FOB price of 380cst dropped from 334.01 to 333.81, a decrease of 9.72; the FOB price of VLSFO dropped from 418.67 to 415.01, a decrease of 10.02. [2] - The 380 - cst basis increased by 1.18, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 0.4, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 0.3. [2] Domestic FU Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of FU 01 dropped from 2437 to 2418, a decrease of 90; the price of FU 05 dropped from 2499 to 2488, a decrease of 85; the price of FU 09 dropped from 2468 to 2464, a decrease of 70. [2] - The FU 01 - 05 spread decreased by 5, the FU 05 - 09 spread decreased by 15, and the FU 09 - 01 spread increased by 20. [2] Domestic LU Data - From December 3 to December 9, 2025, the price of LU 01 dropped from 3010 to 2989, a decrease of 82; the price of LU 05 dropped from 3021 to 3003, a decrease of 88; the price of LU 09 dropped from 3060 to 3033, a decrease of 72. [3] - The LU 01 - 05 spread increased by 6, the LU 05 - 09 spread decreased by 16, and the LU 09 - 01 spread increased by 10. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the pure benzene market, there is significant short - term arrival pressure in China, leading to accelerated accumulation of port inventories. The most critical period for overseas gasoline has passed, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market is still being repaired. Downstream提货 remains weak, and downstream operating rates are at a low level during the off - season. - In the styrene market, the port basis continues to be strong. Styrene maintains low - level operation, and port inventories continue to decline. Downstream operating rates show differentiation, with EPS operating rate rebounding slightly, ABS operating rate decreasing due to inventory pressure, and PS operating rate continuing to rise at the end of the year [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 142 yuan/ton (+48), and the spot - M2 spread is - 185 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis is 204 yuan/ton (+73 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 115 dollars/ton (+0 dollars/ton), FOB South Korea processing fee is 113 dollars/ton (+3 dollars/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 181.0 dollars/ton (+1.1 dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 19 yuan/ton (-4 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 26.00 million tons (+3.60 million tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows different trends, with CPL operating rate dropping to the lowest level of the year, phenol operating rate rising, and aniline and adipic acid operating rates fluctuating within a range [1][3]. - Styrene: East China port inventory is 146,800 tons (-13,800 tons), East China commercial inventory is 87,800 tons (-8,600 tons), and the operating rate is 68.9% (+1.6%) [1]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Products - EPS: Production profit is 38 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 56.36% (+1.61%) [2]. - PS: Production profit is - 162 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 59.00% (+1.40%) [2]. - ABS: Production profit is - 865 yuan/ton (-69 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 68.30% (-2.90%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Products - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 450 yuan/ton (+20), and the operating rate is 79.15% (-7.53%) [1]. - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 977 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate is 82.00% (+1.00%) [1]. - Aniline: Production profit is 848 yuan/ton (+95), and the operating rate is 77.23% (+0.04%) [1]. - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1188 yuan/ton (+45), and the operating rate is 60.00% (+0.60%) [1]. Strategies - Unilateral: None. - Basis and Inter - period: Go for long - short spread trading on EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。个别聚酯工厂集中补货。12月货在01-25~28有成 交，12月底个别略高在01-20~22附近，价格商谈区间在4610~4650。今日主流现货基差在01-26。中性 2、基差：现货4630，01合约基差-14，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间 ...