Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - EB2601 fell and then rebounded, closing at 6,549 yuan/ton. Last week, the impact of the shutdown of Sinochem Quanzhou's 450,000 - ton plant expanded, and Tianjin Bohua's 450,000 - ton plant had a short - term shutdown. Styrene production and capacity utilization decreased month - on - month. Downstream operating rates varied, and the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased slightly. Factory and port inventory changes were inconsistent, and the de - stocking pace slowed down. Non - integrated process losses decreased, and integrated process profitability deepened. Recently, Dongming's 200,000 - ton new plant was put into operation, and Lianyungang Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton plant will restart this week. Domestic styrene supply is expected to recover. In December, the impact of styrene maintenance will weaken marginally, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise. In the short term, the downstream demand load will be slightly adjusted, with little overall change. The tight balance between supply and demand of styrene may gradually turn into a loose balance, and price support will weaken. In terms of cost, the actual supply of international oil prices continues to be stronger than demand. There are still uncertainties in the geopolitical situations of Russia - Ukraine and the US - Venezuela. The market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December to increase, and there is a long - short game in international oil prices. In the short term, EB2601 is expected to show a volatile trend, and the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 6,460 and the resistance around 6,620 [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active contract for styrene was 6,549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan; the futures trading volume was 270,098, a decrease of 20,251; the long - position volume of the top 20 holders was 316,499 hands, a decrease of 21,219 hands; the 1 - month contract closing price was 6,549 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan; the futures open interest was 308,914 hands, a decrease of 6,808 hands; the net long - position volume of the top 20 holders was - 46,463 hands, an increase of 4,741 hands; the short - position volume of the top 20 holders was 362,962 hands, a decrease of 25,960 hands; the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 hands, a decrease of 100 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 6,656 yuan/ton, unchanged; the FOB Korea intermediate price was 811 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars; the CFR China intermediate price was 821 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars; the mainstream price in the Northeast region was 6,375 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the South China region was 6,790 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan; the mainstream price in the North China region was 6,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the East China region was 6,605 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 741 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 721 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price of ethylene was 641.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar; the FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 658 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.33 US dollars; the spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf's FOB was 273 cents/gallon, unchanged; the spot price of pure benzene in Rotterdam's FOB was 714 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars; the market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of pure benzene in the East China market was 5,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan; the market price of pure benzene in the North China market was 5,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 190,430 tons, an increase of 2,334 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 164,200 tons, an increase of 15,900 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 94,200 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 54.75%, a decrease of 1.52 percentage points; the operating rate of ABS was 71.2%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points; the operating rate of PS was 57.6%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points; the operating rate of UPR was 37%, unchanged; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 75.99%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points [2] Industry News - From November 21st to 27th, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 334,700 tons, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66 percentage points month - on - month. From November 21st to 28th, the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene was 268,800 tons, a decrease of 0.3% month - on - month. As of November 27th, the styrene plant inventory was 190,400 tons, an increase of 1.24% from the previous week. As of December 1st, the styrene inventory in the East China port was 160,600 tons, a decrease of 2.19% from the previous week; the inventory in the South China port was 9,500 tons, a decrease of 39.1% from the previous week. As of November 26th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was - 159 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 208.76 yuan/ton [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of logs has been adjusted downward, with the prices of various specifications generally dropping by 10 - 20 yuan per cubic meter. The arrival volume at ports on the supply side continues to rise, and the port inventory is higher than in the past two years. Although the outbound volume remains resilient, it will face pressure in the future. Currently, the futures price is at a relatively low level, and cost support limits the downside. Overall, the reality of the 01 contract is weak, and the willingness to take delivery is low. The futures market is expected to run weakly [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On November 28th, the prices of log futures contracts LG2601, LG2605 remained unchanged, while LG2603 increased by 2.0 yuan to 776.5 yuan, with a gain of 0.26%. The 01 - 03 spread decreased by 2.0 to -11.5, and the 03 - contract basis decreased by 2.0 to -26.5. The prices of various types of spot logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged [2]. - The CFR prices of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce in the external market also remained unchanged on November 28th compared to previous dates [2]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On November 28th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.071 yuan, and the import theoretical cost was 806.36 yuan, a decrease of 0.28 yuan from the previous day, with a change of 0% [2]. Supply: Monthly - In October, the port shipping volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters or 13.99% compared to September. The number of ships at the port (New Zealand → China, Japan, South Korea) was 54, an increase of 8 or 17.39% compared to the previous period [2]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of November 21st, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 303 million cubic meters, an increase of 8 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 195.4 million cubic meters, an increase of 11.1 million cubic meters; the inventory in Jiangsu was 83.18 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.5 million cubic meters [2][3]. Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume (Weekly) - As of November 21st, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.44 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.12 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The outbound volume in Shandong was 3.59 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters; the outbound volume in Jiangsu was 2.36 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters [2][3]. Forecast of Arrival at Ports - From November 24th to November 30th, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 6, a decrease of 7 compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 54%; the total arrival volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [3].

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20251201：区间整理 | | | --- | --- | | 2025/12/1 指标 单位 今值 变动 | | | 16,975.00 0.44% SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,090.00 0.80% | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -115.00 -60.00 | | | 20.00 - 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | | | 美元/吨 -81.80 1.00 | | | 元/吨 -35.00 -25.00 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 10.00 10.00 | | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -20.00 5.00 | | | 手 43,419.00 -24.23% 期货活跃合约成交量 | | | 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 47,922.00 -0.43% | | | 成交持仓比 / 0.91 -23.90% | | | 沪锌近月-沪锌连一 元/吨 -40.00 -5.00 | | | 沪伦铅价比值 / 0.92% | 8. ...

Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced a significant pullback this week, with short-term bonds supported by central bank liquidity and demand, maintaining stable yields[1] - Long-term bonds faced pressure due to policy concerns and profit-taking, but later recovered as fundamental expectations solidified and institutional buying resumed[1] - The recent actions of major banks to withdraw large-denomination certificates of deposit have raised expectations for interest rate declines, providing policy support for a potential bond market recovery[1] Group 2: Market Performance Overview - From November 22 to November 29, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.65%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.54%, and the S&P 500 gained 3.73%[2] - The 10-year China bond yield increased by 2.47 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.72%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.49%[2] Group 3: Inventory and Fund Behavior - The latest weekly crude oil inventory stood at 44,355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest week saw a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 177 contracts, while short positions increased by 1,611 contracts[3] - The gold ETF size rose to 3,361 million ounces, an increase of 160,000 ounces from the previous week[3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated with an upward bias, and domestic spot imports remained in a loss. The US market was closed for Thanksgiving, reducing its guiding role. The Fed's Beige Book showed that the US economic activity has nearly stalled recently, the job market continues to weaken, and inflationary pressures persist, posing challenges to monetary policy. LME copper inventory increased by 675 tons to 157,175 tons, Comex copper inventory remained at 378,904 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons, and BC copper decreased by 300 tons to 5,502 tons. The demand for copper showed a slow recovery as downstream acceptance improved despite high prices. The stabilization of domestic and international stock markets and a significant increase in the annual long - term copper contract price pushed up the copper price. However, the "inventory dam" will still limit the upside of copper prices this year. It is recommended to monitor the performance of copper prices at high levels, maintain the view of high - level fluctuations for now, but be aware that an effective upward breakthrough may lead to a new round of volatility increase and bullish sentiment [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated with an upward bias, with AO2601 closing at 2,730 yuan/ton, a 0.55% increase, and open interest increasing by 3,459 lots to 359,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, with AL2601 closing at 21,480 yuan/ton, a 0.28% decrease, and open interest increasing by 223 lots to 257,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract AD2601 closing at 20,715 yuan/ton, a 0.31% decrease, and open interest decreasing by 182 lots to 5,334 lots. In the spot market, the SMM alumina price dropped to 2,831 yuan/ton, the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to 20 yuan/ton, and the Foshan A00 quotation rebounded to 21,380 yuan/ton, at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the Wuxi A00 price. Aluminum rod processing fees remained stable in many places, while those in Xinjiang, Nanchang, and Wuxi decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The processing fees of 1A60 - series aluminum rods remained stable, and the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods in Yunnan increased by 75 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections have started in the north, mainly targeting the mining end. Some northern alumina plants have undergone phased maintenance, but there has been no large - scale production cut. The warehouse capacity in Xinjiang is approaching full, and the social inventory of alumina has been slightly relieved. Downstream raw material inventory backlogs continue to put pressure on prices. As the expectation of US interest rate cuts declines, the macro - sentiment has become more cautious. The decline in the aluminum price center and the temporary lifting of environmental production restrictions in Henan have led to the partial resumption of processing production lines, increasing the outbound volume of aluminum ingots. The initial tightness in Xinjiang's shipments and the limited decline in molten aluminum have helped the aluminum ingot inventory continue to decline slightly, providing short - term support for the aluminum price, but there is still an upper limit [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.03% to $14,840/ton, while Shanghai nickel rose 0.21% to 117,160 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 930 tons to 255,450 tons, and SHFE warrants decreased by 396 tons to 33,548 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The benchmark price of nickel ore decreased slightly, but the premium remained relatively stable. In the nickel - iron to stainless - steel industry chain, the transaction price center of nickel - iron has shifted downwards, weakening the raw material support. The weekly inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the market is sluggish. In the new energy industry chain, the tight supply of raw materials provides a bottom - support, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more apparent. Considering the cost of producing electrowon nickel from SMM's integrated MHP at 110,000 yuan/ton as support, one may consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances, potential production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 27, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 87,035 yuan/ton, up 425 yuan from the previous day; the flat - copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 78,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong was 2,854 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan; the price of oxygen - free copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai was 87,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of low - oxygen copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai was 83,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 156,500 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons, the total SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,620 tons to 378,900 tons, and the domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 28.1 million tons. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton to - 49.8 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading remained at 45.5 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 380 yuan to - 1,210.4 yuan [4]. - **Lead**: On November 27, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,960 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 1 lead ingot premium in East China remained at - 60 yuan; the price difference between the first and second - month contracts of Shanghai lead remained at 0; the price of tax - included recycled refined lead (≥pb99.97) was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of tax - included recycled lead (≥pb98.5) was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of tax - included reduced lead in Shandong was 14,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The arrival price of 50% lead concentrate in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the processing fees remained unchanged. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 264,975 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 1,159 tons to 27,495 tons, and the SHFE inventory (weekly) decreased by 3,869 tons to 38,921 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 7.2 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 90 dollars/ton, and the active contract import profit was 68 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Aluminum**: On November 27, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Nanhai aluminum price was 21,380 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference was - 70 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot premium was - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of low - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at 615 yuan/ton, and the price of high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at 655 yuan/ton; the FOB price of alumina remained at 320 dollars/ton; the price of Shandong alumina remained at 2,775 yuan/ton; the price difference between domestic and foreign alumina remained at 213 yuan; the price of pre - baked anodes remained at 6,717 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 6063 aluminum (φ90) in Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan to 410 yuan/ton, and the processing fee of 1A60 aluminum rods in Guangdong remained at 350 yuan/ton; the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China remained at 21,350 yuan/ton. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 541,725 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 76 tons to 66,909 tons, the total SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 8,817 tons to 123,716 tons, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory (weekly) decreased by 1.7 million tons to 59.6 million tons, and the alumina social inventory (weekly) increased by 0.1 million tons to 14.1 million tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 49.65 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 90 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss was - 1,786 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Nickel**: On November 27, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 121,300 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi nickel was 4,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price difference between 1 imported nickel and Wuxi nickel was 650 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained at 3,300 yuan/ton; the price of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port remained at 465 yuan/ton, and the price of 1.8% nickel ore from the Philippines at Lianyungang decreased by 1 yuan to 652 yuan/ton; the price of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi remained at 12,150 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B stainless steel coils (both rough - edged and trimmed) in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged; the price of domestic nickel sulfate (≥22%) was 32,300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of domestic 523 - series and 622 - series precursors decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 254,520 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 396 tons to 33,548 tons, the SHFE nickel inventory (weekly) decreased by 778 tons to 39,795 tons, SHFE stainless - steel warrants decreased by 253 tons to 45,451 tons, the social nickel inventory (weekly) decreased by 855 tons to 52,259 tons, and the social stainless - steel inventory (Foshan + Wuxi) decreased by 12 tons to 940 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 228 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 85 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss was - 1,937 yuan/ton, down 610 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: On November 27, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 22,475 yuan/ton, up 0.5%; the LmeS3 price was 2,505.5 dollars/ton, up 0.0%; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.97; the near - far month price difference was - 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the SMM 0 spot price was 22,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the SMM 1 spot price was 22,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the domestic spot average premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the imported zinc average premium was 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME 0 - 3 premium was 2.5 dollars/ton, down 1.75 dollars/ton; the price of zinc alloy Zamak3 was 23,125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of zinc alloy Zamak5 was 23,675 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) remained at 21,500 yuan/ton. The weekly TC of 50% domestic zinc concentrate remained at 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and that of 50% imported zinc concentrate remained at 240 dollars/dry ton. The SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, the LME inventory remained at 49,925 tons, and the social inventory (weekly) decreased by 1.13 million tons to 14.04 million tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 2,502 tons to 69,118 tons, the LME registered warrants decreased by 525 tons to 44,425 tons, and the active contract import profit was 0 yuan/ton, up 5,180 yuan from the previous day [7]. - **Tin**: On November 27, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 300,440 yuan/ton, up 1.5%; the LmeS3 price was 27,540 dollars/ton, down 2.1%; the Shanghai - London ratio was 10.91; the near - far month price difference was - 360 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the SMM spot price was 301,800 yuan/ton, up 6,600 yuan; the price of 60% tin concentrate was 287,200 yuan/metal ton, up 1,700 yuan; the price of 40% tin concentrate was 283,200 yuan/metal ton, up 1,700 yuan; the domestic spot average premium remained at 200 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 50 dollars/ton to 185 dollars/ton. The SHFE inventory (weekly) decreased by 29 tons to 6,229 tons, the LME inventory remained at 3,125 tons, the SHFE registered warrants increased by 34 tons to 6,219 tons, the LME registered warrants decreased by 65 tons to 2,780 tons, the active contract import profit was 0 yuan/ton, up 29,136 yuan from the previous day, and the tariff was 3% [7]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][11] - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the price differences between the first and second - month contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][19][20] - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27] - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34] - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40] - **Smelting Profit**: Charts depict the historical trends of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47] 3. Introduction to the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the current director of non - ferrous

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - With the peak of autumn maintenance in European and American refineries passing, their operations are gradually resuming, and the most critical period for gasoline supply may have passed. The rhythmic arrival of pure benzene at ports has increased pressure, leading to a further rise in port inventories and suppressing the performance of pure benzene processing fees. Downstream operations remain at a low level during the off - season, with styrene maintaining low - load maintenance, CPL operations dropping further from a low level, and the operations of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid slightly increasing, but terminal demand remains weak [3]. - Overseas, South Korea's Daehan, Lotte, and Hyundai have officially announced a merger and will shut down Lotte's 1.1 million - ton cracking unit. Attention should be paid to whether Lotte's styrene units in South Korea will stop production. In China, port inventories have risen again. Although styrene is still in a low - operation maintenance stage and the resumption plan has been postponed, downstream operations during the off - season are still low. The operation of EPS, which has obvious seasonality, continues to decline, the operation of PS rebounds but inventory pressure remains, and the finished - product inventory pressure of ABS remains high while its operation stays at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Relevant figures include the basis of the pure benzene main contract, the price of the pure benzene main futures contract, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene, the trend and basis of the EB main contract, the basis of the EB main contract, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [7][10][15] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Relevant figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB South Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, the production profit of non - integrated styrene units, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB South Korea pure benzene, the difference between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, the difference between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, the difference between FOB US Gulf styrene and CFR China styrene, and the difference between FOB Rotterdam styrene and CFR China styrene [18][21][36] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - Relevant figures involve the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports, the operating rate of pure benzene, the inventory of styrene in East China ports, the operating rate of styrene, the commercial inventory of styrene in East China, and the factory inventory of styrene [38][40][43] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Relevant figures include the operating rate and production profit of EPS, the operating rate and production profit of PS, and the operating rate and production profit of ABS [51][56][58] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Relevant figures cover the operating rates of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid, as well as the production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular - spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [62][71][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices will fluctuate due to the combined impact of supply increases and weak demand. OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable oil production policies in Q1 2026 and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms [1]. - Fuel oil prices will oscillate. The immediate supply is relatively sufficient, but high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by downstream demand [3]. - Asphalt prices will experience low - level oscillations. The supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, but the price has shown relative stability around 3000 yuan/ton recently [3]. - PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate. PX has a strong fundamental expectation but a weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level [4]. - Rubber prices have support. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price is expected to be supported after the concentrated cancellation of natural rubber warehouse receipts [7]. - Methanol prices will oscillate with a short - term upward bias. The supply from Iran will decline, leading to a reduction in port inventory and a price rebound, but there is an upper limit to the price [7][9]. - Polyolefin prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply will remain high, and demand will weaken, but the low valuation may prompt downstream buying [9]. - PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but the export situation improves, and the basis is repaired [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, Brent January contract closed up $0.21 to $63.34/barrel, a 0.33% increase; SC2601 closed at 451.6 yuan/barrel, up 6.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.46% increase. OPEC+ meetings are planned on Sunday, with expectations of stable Q1 2026 production policies and an agreement on evaluating maximum production capacity mechanisms. Russia's oil revenue is under pressure, and the price will oscillate due to supply and demand factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 rose 0.82% to 2471 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 1% to 3033 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujeirah inventories increased. November's western - sourced low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals in Singapore are expected to be higher, but high freight rates may affect December arrivals. The price will oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 fell 1.41% to 3007 yuan/ton. This week's domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises declined. Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price will oscillate at a low level [3]. - **PTA, EG, PX**: TA601 closed down 1.11% at 4632 yuan/ton; EG2601 closed down 0.59% at 3873 yuan/ton; PX01 closed down 0.83% at 6718 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expectation but weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 85 yuan/ton to 15280 yuan/ton, NR rose 40 yuan/ton to 12205 yuan/ton, and BR rose 40 yuan/ton to 10400 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price has support [7]. - **Methanol**: The domestic supply is stable, but Iranian plants are shutting down due to gas restrictions. Port inventory is expected to decline from mid - December to early January, driving the price to rebound, but there is an upper limit [7][9]. - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the price of polyolefin products was low, and production was in a loss - making state. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price in the East China market was adjusted upwards. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but export obstacles are basically eliminated, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on November 27, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable Q1 2026 oil production policies and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms. Eight OPEC+ countries that increased production in 2025 are expected to keep their production suspension policies unchanged in Q1 2026 [16]. - Russia's Ural crude oil discount has widened, and the US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, increasing pressure on Russia's oil revenue [16]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [18][20][24] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [47][53] - **Inter - product Spreads**: Charts cover spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of LLDPE and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experience [77][78][79]

Group 1: Report's Core Views - Singapore high - sulfur cracking weakened rapidly this week, the monthly spread ran at a historical low, the basis weakened and then oscillated at a historical low, the 380 basis weakened and then rebounded on Friday, and the European HSFO cracking dropped rapidly. The EW strengthened this week [4]. - Singapore 0.5% cracking weakened oscillatively this week, the monthly spread weakened oscillatively, and the basis strengthened slightly [4]. - In terms of inventory, global residue inventory increased, Singapore residue inventory decreased, high - sulfur floating storage increased significantly, ARA residue inventory increased, Fujairah residue inventory decreased slightly, high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly, and EIA residue inventory increased [5]. - The expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks strengthened, the prices of external gasoline and diesel dropped significantly, and the price difference between low - sulfur fuel oil and diesel rebounded this week [5]. - After the Al Zour refinery caught fire and shut down on October 21, the Singapore basis started to rebound recently [5]. - Global residue has entered an inventory accumulation cycle, external cracking is expected to be supported by the decline in crude oil prices, showing a short - term oscillatory pattern. Maintain a high - short idea for the internal and external prices of FU01, and consider arranging 1 - 2 reverse spreads. The short - term downward space for low - sulfur fuel oil is limited [5]. Group 2: Data Changes Rotterdam Fuel Oil | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | 8.19 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | 0.57 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | 0.30 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | 14.12 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 13.55 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 1.50 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | - 7.62 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 5.26 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 1.93 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 4.81 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 1.12 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | - 0.40 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | - 3.48 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 1.25 | | FOB VLSFO | 5.98 | | 380 basis | - 1.23 | | High - sulfur internal - external price difference | 2.1 | | Low - sulfur internal - external price difference | - 3.8 | [3] Domestic FU | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 4 | | FU 05 | 0 | | FU 09 | - 6 | | FU 01 - 05 | 4 | | FU 05 - 09 | 6 | | FU 09 - 01 | - 10 | [3] Domestic LU | Type | Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 0 | | LU 05 | 19 | | LU 09 | 9 | | LU 01 - 05 | - 19 | | LU 05 - 09 | 10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 9 | [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 6707 yuan/ton, closed at 6699 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-0.61%), with a trading volume of 270,000 lots and an open interest of 495,726 lots, a decrease of 1,873 lots [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 6768 yuan/ton, closed at 6763 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.46%), with an open interest of 232,562 lots, an increase of 10,864 lots [5] - Plastic 2609: Opened at 6809 yuan/ton, closed at 6804 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.41%), with an open interest of 4,234 lots, an increase of 376 lots [5] - PP2601: Opened at 6261 yuan/ton, closed at 6295 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.03%), with an open interest of 557,253 lots, a decrease of 29,319 lots [5] - PP2605: Opened at 6360 yuan/ton, closed at 6393 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.11%), with an open interest of 263,547 lots, an increase of 19,590 lots [5] - PP2609: Opened at 6431 yuan/ton, closed at 6435 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.29%), with an open interest of 12,254 lots, an increase of 661 lots [5] Spot Market Quotes - PE Market: Prices continued to be weak. LLDPE prices in North China were 6720 - 7000 yuan/ton, in East China were 6850 - 7300 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6980 - 7350 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market: The mainstream price in Shandong was 6050 - 6050 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The cost of polypropylene was under pressure, and the demand support for propylene weakened [7] - PP Market: Prices were stable to weak, with a decline of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6130 - 6300 yuan/ton, in East China was 6220 - 6400 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [7] Market Analysis Market Review and Outlook - Linear futures opened lower and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere changed little. Traders sold at discounted prices, and most spot prices declined slightly. Downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines [6] - The load of previously restarted plants increased slowly, and the weekly supply decreased. There were no new maintenance plans this week, so the weekly supply might increase month-on-month [6] - The peak demand season was ending, follow-up orders were slow, and most factories had already stocked up. Downstream sentiment was bearish, and purchasing enthusiasm weakened [6] - Crude oil prices fell again due to the easing of geopolitical risks. There was pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, which put pressure on prices. The cost support for plastics and chemicals was hard to find, and combined with the weak fundamentals, the price center declined weakly [6] Industry News - On November 27, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 650,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons (-0.76%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 605,000 tons [7] Data Overview - The report includes charts such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate [9][12][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [2]. - For methanol, with the potential bullish factors from Iranian plant shutdowns materializing, the market has stopped falling and stabilized. However, high supply will limit further upside, and the market is expected to turn to a sideways adjustment after the bullish factors are exhausted [3]. - For urea, the price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. With supply remaining high and demand improving, the downside is limited, and it's recommended to consider buying on dips at low prices [5][7]. - For rubber, a bullish short - term trading approach is suggested, and partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [8]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it's still difficult to support the current supply - demand imbalance. Medium - term short - selling opportunities are worth attention [11]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [15]. - For polyethylene, the PE valuation has limited downside, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the off - season, the long - term contradiction has shifted, and it's advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [18]. - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [20]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [22]. - For PTA, with the stabilization and repair of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. The load may remain high in the short term, but there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak. The inventory build - up may slow down in the short term, but it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [27]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 4.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.08%, to 447.60 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 20.00 yuan/ton, or 0.82%, to 2471.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 30.00 yuan/ton, or 1.00%, to 3033.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.77 million barrels to 426.93 million barrels, a 0.65% increase [1][5][6]. - **Strategy**: A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The price in Taicang increased by 17, in Lunan by 15, and remained flat in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 20 yuan to 2114 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9. The 1 - 5 spread was + 13, at - 94 [2]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to turn to a sideways adjustment after the bullish factors are exhausted, and waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The price in Shandong increased by 10, in Henan by 20, and remained stable in Hubei. The 01 contract on the futures market rose 14 yuan to 1668 yuan, with a basis of - 38. The 1 - 5 spread was + 5, at - 59 [5]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range, and buying on dips at low prices is recommended [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Thailand is experiencing floods, and rubber prices have rebounded. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber is 14550 (+50) yuan, STR20 is reported at 1820 (0) dollars, and STR20 mixed is 1810 (0) dollars. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and cis - polybutadiene in North China remained unchanged [7]. - **Strategy**: A bullish short - term trading approach is suggested, and partial positions can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [8]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 28 yuan to 4517 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 is 4450 (+10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 67 (-18) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread is - 281 (+12) yuan/ton. The cost side remained stable, the overall operating rate was 78.8%, a 0.3% increase, and downstream demand decreased [10]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, and medium - term short - selling opportunities are worth attention [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of pure benzene remained unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene fell, and the futures price also declined, with the basis weakening. The BZN spread rose, and the non - integrated plant profit of styrene decreased. The supply side's operating rate declined, and the port inventory increased, while the demand side's overall operating rate rose [13][14]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is high, and the price may stop falling periodically [15]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract's closing price was 6699 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, the basis strengthened, the upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly, and the LL1 - 5 spread narrowed [17]. - **Strategy**: The PE valuation has limited downside, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. With the arrival of the off - season, the long - term contradiction has shifted, and it's advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract's closing price was 6295 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price remained unchanged, the basis weakened, the upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased. The downstream average operating rate increased slightly, and the LL - PP spread narrowed [19]. - **Strategy**: In a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation on the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [20]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract fell 56 yuan to 6718 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 3 dollars to 826 dollars. The basis increased, and the 1 - 3 spread decreased. The operating rate in China and Asia increased, some plants restarted, PTA's operating rate rose, and imports from South Korea to China increased. The inventory increased in September [21]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract fell 56 yuan to 4632 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4610 yuan. The basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased. The PTA operating rate increased, the downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [23]. - **Strategy**: With the stabilization and repair of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. The load may remain high in the short term, but there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 23 yuan to 3873 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 4 yuan to 3900 yuan. The basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged. The supply - side operating rate increased, the downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the port inventory remained flat [25]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand outlook is weak. The inventory build - up may slow down in the short term, but it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [27].