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| E Kain K | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月16日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 上周国际油价受中东地缘风险迅速升温影响大幅上涨，布伦特08合约周度上涨12.8%，今日开盘后高开低走。周末 伊以双方延续互相袭击，以色列对伊朗最大天然气田南帕尔斯及油库进行袭击。尽管目前对能源基础设施的袭击局 限在伊朗国内供应链而非对外出口,但仍未缓和的地缘冲突及霍尔木兹海峡封锁威胁仍令市场对潜在的中东供应成 量进行定价。原油短期震荡偏强，尽管宏观及供需因素不支撑油价向上进一步突破，投资者仍可继 ...

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Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Short - term weakness, beware of macro - event disturbances [1] - Soda Ash: Bearish fundamentals, recommend light - position participation [1] 2. Core Views - Soda Ash: Demand is relatively stable, but supply is gradually increasing. With high inventory and the expectation of new capacity coming online, the overall situation is one of supply - demand surplus. Maintain a bearish view, but trade with a light position due to the relatively low price level [4] - Glass: Inventory accumulation has slightly decreased, demand remains weak before the rainy season, and recent macro risks have increased significantly. Attention should be paid to short - term risk prevention [41] 3. Soda Ash Summary 3.1 Price - Spot prices are weak this week, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remains stable. In the mainstream trading areas, North China heavy soda ash is 1400 (-50), and East China heavy soda ash is 1375 (-25). The national average price of heavy soda ash is 1350, and that of light soda ash is 1318, with a price difference of +33 (-1) [5] - Futures prices declined. The closing price of the main SA2509 contract is 1156 (-56), the 9 - 1 spread is +3 (-11), and the basis of the main 09 contract is +165 (+32) (using the national average price of heavy soda ash) [10] 3.2 Supply - Last week, soda ash production was 70.41 tons (+1.90, +2.70%), including 32.19 tons of light soda ash (+0.66) and 38.22 tons of heavy soda ash (+1.24). The operating rate was 80.76% (+2.19%), with the ammonia - soda method at 79.3% (+7.89%) and the combined - soda method at 80.41% (+3.87%) [4][16] 3.3 Demand - Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 68.56 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%; the overall production - sales ratio was 92.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.58%. Demand slightly weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid needs. Next week, float glass production is expected to increase slightly, while photovoltaic glass production is expected to decrease. In April, soda ash imports were 0.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 tons; exports were 17.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.51 tons, with a decrease in net exports [4][25] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, soda ash enterprise inventory was 168.63 tons (+5.93, +3.64%), including 81.13 tons of light soda ash inventory (+2.13) and 87.50 tons of heavy soda ash inventory (+3.80). Both light and heavy soda ash inventories increased [4][32] 3.5 Cost - Profit - Last week, the profit of the combined - soda method (double - ton) was 139.5 yuan/ton (-38.5); the profit of the ammonia - soda method was +20.70 yuan/ton (-29.2), showing a slight overall decrease [4][38] 4. Glass Summary 4.1 Price - Spot prices were stable with a weakening trend last week. The ex - factory price of Wuhan Changli's 5mm glass was 1100 (-0), and that of Shahe Anquan's 5mm glass was 1056 (-20), with a price difference of +44 (+20) [42] - The main 2509 contract closed at 996 (-21), the 9 - 1 spread was -59 (-2), and the basis of the main 09 contract was +124 (+21) (using the ex - factory price of Wuhan Changli as the spot benchmark) [41][48] 4.2 Supply - Last week, the daily production of float glass in operation was 15.57 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70%. Float glass production was 109.12 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61%. The operating rate was 75.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75%. There were 297 domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines, with 224 in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut down [41][53] 4.3 Demand - As of the end of May, the order days of deep - processing enterprises were 10.35 days, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous period. The resumption of production of tempering enterprises was slow. The recovery trend at the end of the real estate sector has significantly weakened, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.9% in the completion end from January to April, and the willingness for new construction at the front end remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.8% from January to April. According to CAAM data, in May, automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 1.15% and 3.71% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 11.68% and 11.13% respectively, which is at a relatively high level in recent years [41][63] 4.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.685 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10%. Inventory decreased slightly in North China and East China, while it increased in other regions [41][71] 4.5 Cost - Profit - Last week, the profit of coal - gas - made float glass was +80.72 yuan/ton (-10.24); the profit of natural - gas - made float glass was -182.83 yuan/ton (-12.15); the profit of petroleum - coke - made float glass was -128.47 yuan/ton (-17.17). The industry profit decreased slightly in the short term [41][84]

Group 1 - Geopolitical risks have re-emerged as a primary focus in trading, with complex reactions in currency and interest rate markets compared to traditional safe-haven assets [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently fluctuating between 143.90 and 144.74, with a strong short-term technical structure above key moving averages [4] - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain its short-term interest rate target at 0.5% until at least Q1 2026, limiting the potential for policy tightening [4][5] Group 2 - The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to rising international oil prices, providing temporary support for the USD while having a limited positive impact on the JPY [6] - The USD is expected to strengthen against the JPY, with analysts predicting a potential rise to 155 by the end of the year due to structural capital outflows from Japan and upcoming fiscal uncertainties [7] - The JPY is underperforming against other major currencies like the EUR and AUD, influenced by the stabilization of Eurozone policies and commodity price movements [6]

Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures experienced a rapid increase, with the main contract peaking at 3276.00 yuan, closing at 3260.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.87% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Ruida Futures, fuel oil prices are expected to primarily follow cost fluctuations due to ongoing geopolitical risks, including the unresolved Israel-Iran conflict and upcoming negotiations between Russia and Ukraine [2] - The demand for fuel oil is supported by the approaching summer travel peak in the U.S., while domestic supply remains low due to maintenance at the Binzhou refinery [2] - The supply of high-sulfur fuel oil is tight, leading to increased prices for supply vessels, while overall demand improvement is limited [2] Group 2: Short-term Outlook - Dayue Futures indicates that short-term geopolitical tensions are high, contributing to a generally strong performance in fuel oil [3] - The cash price spread for marine fuel has narrowed due to weak demand in the spot market, while Singapore's commercial fuel oil inventory has reached a seven-week high [3] - The expected price range for FU2509 is between 3250-3350 yuan, and for LU2508, it is between 3800-3900 yuan, indicating a strong market outlook [3]

【原油、燃料油、沥青市场受多重因素影响】以色列与伊朗冲突未结束，俄乌计划6月22日后重启和 谈，地缘风险延续。OPEC+增产推进，美国商业原油库存降幅超预期，且美国夏季出行高峰带动燃油 需求，油价获坚挺支撑。 国内原油方面，山东独立炼厂常减压周均产能利用率降至45.12%，较上周跌 1.88个百分点，同比跌6.76个百分点，因海科瑞林停工及部分炼厂二次装置降量。降雨致汽柴需求疲 软，关注国际油价影响。SC主力合约上方关注560附近压力，短线大幅反弹。 燃料油市场，滨州炼厂检 修，低硫渣油周度供应处中低位。终端航运市场商谈氛围弱，船加油需求冷清。亚洲燃料油供需变化不 大，新加坡和国内保税船供油价格随国际原油上涨。高硫燃料油供应偏紧，供船价走高。国内燃油供应 维持低位，进口或增多，需求改善有限，价格随成本波动。FU主力合约上方关注3300附近压力，LU主 力合约上方关注3950附近压力，短线均大幅上行。 沥青市场，国内沥青加工利润微降，周均值-516.1 元/吨，较上周减少51.4元/吨，成本涨但现货持稳，下游刚需采购，高价成交难。北方沥青价格相对坚 挺，南方降雨致刚需受限、库存压力增。下期山东个别炼厂计划复产， ...

沥青：高位震荡，地缘风险仍存 2025 年 6 月 16 日 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,659 | 2.95% | 3,657 | -0.05% | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,649 | 2.99% | 3,639 | -0.27% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2507 | 手 | 93,031 | 40,364 | 53,840 | (6,572) | | | BU2508 | 手 | 27,945 | 15,303 | 27,352 | (1,705) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 9451 ...

2025年06月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：美国生柴政策及地缘风险均有利好 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：国内油脂表现或弱于国际油脂 | 2 | | 豆粕：生物柴油政策利多，连粕跟随美豆偏强 | 5 | | 豆一：豆类市场偏强，跟随补涨 | 5 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 9 | | 棉花：关注外部市场影响 | 10 | | 鸡蛋：梅雨季利空释放 | 11 | | 生猪：等待现货印证 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 16 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：美国生柴政策及地缘风险均有利好 豆油：国内油脂表现或弱于国际油脂 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,140 | 涨跌幅 1.62% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,414 | 涨跌幅 3.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices rose significantly, reaching the largest single - day increase in many years on Friday with an enlarged intraday amplitude. Geopolitical risks soared due to the Israel - Iran conflict, and the risk of an upward oil price trend remains high as Israel has not proposed conditions to end the attacks and Iran has joined the counter - attack. The threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz is the biggest factor affecting crude oil. Although the actual implementation is difficult, Israel started attacking energy facilities over the weekend. The fundamentals support for prices is weaker than during the 2022 Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the absolute price is expected to fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From June 9th to 13th, WTI rose by 4.94 to 72.98, BRENT rose by 4.87 to 74.23, and DUBAI rose by 2.52 to 69.93. SC increased by 34.20 to 529.90, and OMAN rose by 3.99 to 72.08. The prices of domestic gasoline increased by 400.00 to 8180, and the difference between domestic gasoline and BRENT increased by 111.00 [3]. 2. Daily News - Germany, France, and the UK are ready to talk with Iran about its nuclear program. Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked Israel. Trump warned Iran and said the US could facilitate an agreement between Iran and Israel. Iran will no longer notify the IAEA in advance about its nuclear activities. Israel's actions against Iran are expected to last for weeks with US acquiescence. The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict may lead to a qualitative change in the Middle East situation if the US intervenes militarily [3][4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending June 6th, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3644000 barrels to 432 million barrels, a 0.84% decline. The US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 237000 barrels to 4021 million barrels, a 0.06% increase. US domestic crude oil production increased by 2000 barrels per day to 1342800 barrels per day. The number of oil drilling rigs decreased by 3 to 439 on June 13th, and the number of fracturing wells decreased by 4 to 182. The EIA gasoline inventory in the US for the week ending June 6th increased by 1504000 barrels. This week, the operating rate of major Chinese refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, and the sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories increased this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [4][5]. 4. Weekly Views - The geopolitical risk has led to a significant increase in oil prices. The core issue is that Israel has deviated from the negotiation framework and has not proposed conditions to end the attacks. The threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz poses a major risk to oil prices. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are stable, US commercial inventories continue to decline, and refined oil inventories increase. The profits of global refineries have declined this week, and the operating rate of major Chinese refineries has increased significantly. The monthly spreads of the three - market crude oil continue to soar, maintaining the WTI>Brent>Dubai pattern. The fundamentals support for prices is weaker than during the 2022 Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the absolute price is expected to fluctuate significantly in the next two weeks [6].