Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a gradual upward trend, with a notable recovery in market risk appetite, approaching the 3500-point mark, supported by a low interest rate environment and expectations of policy stimulus [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a broad-based rally, with over 4200 stocks rising, indicating a strong profit-making effect and increased trading volume [3]. - The market's upward movement is a response to the U.S. adjusting tariff rates for 14 countries, reflecting a desensitization to tariff impacts [1]. - Key sectors leading the gains include telecommunications, power equipment, electronics, and construction materials, while banking and utilities experienced declines [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trajectory due to low interest rates and a recovering risk appetite, particularly in high-risk sectors like non-bank finance, media, and military industry [1]. - July is anticipated to be driven by event-based themes, with potential high-low sector rotations, particularly in consumer goods and robotics, as well as semiconductor localization trends [2]. - The innovation drug sector is projected to reach a turning point in fundamentals by 2025, following a period of adjustment [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by Trump's tariff policies, leading to increased policy uncertainty and market volatility [14][15] - Various commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, such as the impact of tariff threats on palm oil exports, the production pressure on Ferrexpo's iron ore, and the adjustment of the expected price of polysilicon [2][30][42] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US June 1 - year inflation expectation was 3.02%, lower than the expected 3.13% and the previous value of 3.20%. Trump intends to impose a 50% tariff on copper, and the equal - tariff is postponed to August 1. Gold lacks the impetus to break through and rise, and there is a risk of decline in the short term [9][10][11] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - Dollar Index) - Trump will impose a 50% tariff on copper, threatens to impose sanctions on Russia, and the tariff deadline on August 1 will not be postponed. Market risk appetite is affected, and the dollar is expected to strengthen in the short term [12][13][16] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - National leaders inspected Shanxi, and 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative. The A - share market sentiment is high, and it is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly [17][18][19] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US June one - year inflation expectation dropped to a five - month low. Trump threatens to impose a 50% copper tariff, and tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are expected. The industry tariff pressure increases, and there is a risk of US stock market correction [20][21][23] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 690 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 620 billion yuan. Treasury bond futures are expected to rise marginally from July to August, and long positions can be held and bought on dips [24][25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Vietnam's textile and clothing exports in June increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Brazil's cotton harvesting progress was 7.3%, and the US cotton growth progress was slightly slow but the excellent rate was higher. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term [26][27][29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Due to US tariff threats, Indonesia's palm oil exports to the US are expected to decline. Palm oil prices rose significantly yesterday, and it is recommended to buy on dips after a callback [30][31] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises in production areas are in a loss state, and the starch inventory cycle changes rapidly with high uncertainty [32] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The import corn auction on July 8 cooled down, and it is recommended to enter short positions on new crops lightly in advance [33][34] 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price difference between imported and domestic steam coal exists. The daily consumption of steam coal is high in the short term, and the price is expected to remain stable in July [35] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales of excavators in June increased year - on - year, and 33 construction companies issued an "anti - involution" initiative. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies in the spot market [36][38][39] 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Ferrexpo's iron ore production in the second quarter was under pressure. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the valuation repair of coking coal [40] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead was at a discount. The lead price center may gradually rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the external reverse arbitrage opportunity [41] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The expected price of polysilicon was significantly increased, but there are still problems in reality. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc was at a discount, and the zinc market is expected to accumulate inventory from July to August. It is recommended to short on rallies, arrange medium - term positive arbitrage, and maintain the medium - term positive arbitrage idea externally [44] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The output of organic silicon increased. The industrial silicon price may face a downward risk, and it is recommended to short on rallies [45][46][47] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel raw materials began to weaken, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is recommended to short on rallies [48][49] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium carbonate project's environmental impact assessment was accepted. It is recommended to buy on dips and arrange positive arbitrage [50][51] 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - EIA lowered the forecast of US crude oil production growth this year, and API crude oil inventory increased. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [52][53][54] 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX prices rose slightly, and it is expected to adjust in the short term and the supply gap will widen in the medium term [54][55] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices fluctuated, and the basis declined. It is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the impact of PX maintenance on the supply - demand gap in the medium term [56][57] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices were lowered, and it is recommended to increase the processing fee of bottle chips on dips [58][59][60] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong rebounded, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [60][61][62] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp fluctuated, and it is expected to fluctuate in the market [62] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device is expected to be put into production. The pure benzene futures were listed, and the styrene - pure benzene spread narrowed. There may be a long - term allocation opportunity for pure benzene [63][64][66] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - PVC prices fluctuated slightly, and the market is expected to have limited upside [67] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The construction of national zero - carbon parks was launched, and CEA prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [68][69] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices were weak and fluctuating, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [70] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market were stable. It is recommended to use the cross - variety arbitrage strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [71][73]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, in the short - term, it is expected to decline; in the medium - term, it will fluctuate; and the intraday view is weakly fluctuating, with a suggestion of waiting and seeing. For copper, in the short - term and medium - term, it is expected to rise; and the intraday view is strongly fluctuating, with a short - term bullish outlook [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term view: decline; medium - term view: fluctuation; intraday view: weakly fluctuating; reference view: wait and see. Core logic: US non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, leading to a stronger dollar and putting pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, the decline in market risk appetite since last Friday and the high - level adjustment of US stocks increased short - term safe - haven demand for gold, providing support for gold prices [1][3] Copper - Short - term and medium - term view: rise; intraday view: strongly fluctuating; reference view: short - term bullish. Core logic: Last week, the macro environment cooled, the US interest - rate cut expectation decreased, and tariff concerns increased, causing copper prices to fall. On Monday, copper prices continued to decline with reduced positions. On the industrial side, supply is expected to decrease due to smelter losses and policy expectations, and demand is strong but marginally declining. Technically, attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average support [1][5]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250704 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：6 月美国非农大超预期，"大而美"法案过关待签署 海外方面，美国 6 月非农新增就业 14.7 万人，连续四月超预期，4-5 月合计上修 1.6 万 人；失业率意外降至 4.1%，平均时薪环比放缓至 0.2%，市场基本消化 7 月不降息，风险偏 好再度打开，美股齐涨，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.34%，金价下跌。然而从结构上看仍存隐忧： 6 月非农新增岗位中近半数来自政府部门，私营部门就业增长依旧疲弱，与此前爆冷的 ADP 就业数据（私营部门）相呼应。美国"大美丽"法案仍在众议院险些过关，特朗普预计将于 周六清晨正式签署。 国内方面，A 股缩量上涨，两市成交额回落至 1.33 万亿，风格上创业板、深证成指表 现占优，行业上电子、生物科技领涨，美越关税协议落地、对华科技制裁放松，均有助于修 复市场风险偏好。在内需乏力、物价依旧偏低迷的背景下，供给侧优化正逐步落地并加快推 进，工信部：依法整治光伏 ...

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 4 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美非农就业高于预期，美元反弹， 铜价承压 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 观点参考 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日夜盘沪金低开震荡运行。美国非农就业高于市场 ...

Group 1 - The divergence between the ADP employment data and non-farm payroll data in June indicates a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with the ADP data unexpectedly contracting [3] - The non-farm payroll data for June showed a seasonally adjusted increase of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations, which diminishes the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July [4] - The market is now shifting its expectations for a potential rate cut to September, as the strong non-farm data suggests continued high interest rates [4] Group 2 - Despite the Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut rates, the U.S. stock market continues to rise, with indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching historical highs, indicating a strong market performance [5] - The high interest rate environment may lead investors to prefer U.S. Treasury securities over equities, as the average dividend yield of listed companies rarely exceeds Treasury yields [5] - The recovery of the stock market after a significant decline earlier in the year suggests a strong rebound, although uncertainties remain regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions [6] Group 3 - The stock market's ability to recover quickly from earlier losses may be attributed to the influence of major technology companies and the resolution of issues like the debt ceiling, which positively affects market risk appetite [5][6] - The market's valuation levels have increased again, raising concerns about the return of valuation bubbles, while the underlying risks remain unaddressed [6] - The ongoing speculation about the Federal Reserve's rate decisions continues to drive market behavior, with potential volatility if unexpected events occur [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PE, PVC [1] - **Bearish**: Silver, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Carbonate Lithium, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Sinter, Ferroalloy, Glass, Soda Ash, Bitumen, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, PE, PP, PVC, Chlor - Alkali [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, market trading volume is gradually shrinking, and with mediocre domestic and foreign positive factors, the stock index faces resistance in breaking upward and may show an oscillating pattern. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space. The price of gold is supported by factors such as renewed tariff uncertainties and the passage of the US tax - reform bill in the Senate, but the slowdown of the US dollar index decline requires vigilance against the suppression of the gold price by a staged rebound. The macro and commodity attributes support the silver price, but the fundamentals limit its upside. Copper prices are strong in the short term due to the recovery of market risk appetite and the fermentation of the squeeze - out situation of US copper and LME copper. Aluminum prices are strong due to the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventories and the improvement of market risk appetite. The overall market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the progress of tariffs and changes in domestic and foreign economic data [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term upward breakthrough is difficult, may oscillate, and follow - up focus on macro incremental information [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term upward space is restricted by interest - rate risk warning [1] - **Gold**: Supported by tariff uncertainties and tax - reform bill, but beware of the impact of the US dollar index rebound [1] - **Silver**: Supported by macro and commodity attributes, but limited by fundamentals [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Strong in the short term due to risk - appetite recovery and squeeze - out situation [1] - **Aluminum**: Strong due to low inventory and improved market sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Maintains a strong operation [1] - **Zinc**: Affected by news in the short term, beware of risks in short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Rebounds in the short term but limited upside, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillating rebound, long - term supply pressure remains [1] - **Tin**: Rebounds due to improved macro sentiment, follow - up focus on imports [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bullish due to production cuts and high market sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates due to stable supply and weak downstream procurement [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Oscillates due to short - term factory production restrictions [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillates due to short - term factory production restrictions [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates with limited upside due to factory production restrictions and high short - term demand [1] - **Sinter**: Price is under pressure due to increased short - term production and weakening demand [1] - **Ferroalloy**: Excess pressure remains due to cost and demand factors [1] - **Glass**: Supply is stable in the short term, demand is resilient, but medium - term supply - demand surplus exists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is disturbed, but demand is weak, and cost support is weakened [1] - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on futures premium for selling hedging [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the short term, follow - up focus on hearings and supply - demand reports [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Similar to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Similar to palm oil [1] - **Cotton**: Expected to oscillate weakly, affected by trade negotiations and weather in the short term, and macro uncertainties in the long term [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian production is expected to increase, and pay attention to the impact of crude oil on the sugar - production ratio [1] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate, with limited decline in the futures market, and C01 can be shorted at high prices [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Near - term inventory is expected to accumulate, and MO1 can be bought at low prices [1] - **Pulp**: Bearish due to falling prices, increased shipments, and weak domestic demand [1] - **Logs**: Weak due to off - season and limited supply decline [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures are stable due to the continued recovery of inventory and limited decline in spot prices [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillates due to geopolitical cooling, possible OPEC+ production increase, and consumption - season support [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Bearish due to cost drag, possible tax - refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Natural Rubber**: Bearish due to weakening demand, expected production increase, and inventory increase [1] - **BR Rubber**: Weak in the short term, follow - up focus on price adjustments and de - stocking progress [1] - **PTA**: Oscillates due to weakening basis, delayed plant maintenance, and strong PX floating [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish due to large expected arrivals and negative macro - sentiment impact [1] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillates, with low warehouse - receipt registration and cost following closely [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish due to weakening speculative demand, increased device load, and strong basis [1] - **PE**: Oscillates strongly due to good macro - sentiment, many overhauls, and rigid demand [1] - **PP**: Oscillates strongly due to limited overhaul support, rigid orders, and market sentiment [1] - **PVC**: Oscillates strongly due to policy support, upcoming new - device production, and seasonal demand changes [1] - **Chlor - Alkali**: Oscillates, follow - up focus on liquid - chlorine changes [1] - **LPG**: Bearish due to price cuts, seasonal demand decline, and narrow price difference [1] - **Container Shipping European Line**: Expected to peak in mid - July, with sufficient subsequent capacity [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market's focus is on the negotiations before the deadline of reciprocal tariffs, and short - term macro - sentiment will continue to dominate the oil market. Although oil prices and risk assets rebounded due to the US - Vietnam trade agreement, the crude oil fundamentals had no obvious positive news and EIA data was bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's August - delivery light crude oil futures rose $2.00 to $67.45 per barrel, a 3.06% increase; September - delivery London Brent crude oil futures rose $2.00 to $69.11 per barrel, a 2.98% increase. SC crude oil's main contract closed up 2.11% at 509 yuan per barrel [1]. - As of the week ending June 30, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 19.156 million barrels, up 36,000 barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory increased by 749,000 barrels to 7.487 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 678,000 barrels to 2.722 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.391 million barrels to 8.947 million barrels [1]. - For the week ending June 27 in the US, EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was - 1.493 million barrels (previous value - 464,000 barrels); EIA crude oil inventory was 3.845 million barrels (expected - 1.809 million barrels, previous value - 5.836 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 239,000 barrels (previous value 237,000 barrels). US crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day to 2.305 million barrels per day. Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 239,000 barrels to 402.8 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.93% increase [1]. - Indonesia plans to achieve a daily crude oil production target of 1 million barrels by 2029 or 2030. Currently, its daily crude oil consumption is 1.6 million barrels, while daily production is between 580,000 and 600,000 barrels [1]. - Goldman Sachs believes that if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market may not react significantly. It expects the production increase in August to be the last one, but there is a risk of further quota increases after August [1]. Investment Logic - Driven by the US - Vietnam trade agreement, oil prices and risk assets such as US stocks rebounded. However, there was no obvious positive news in the crude oil fundamentals, and EIA data was bearish, indicating that short - term macro - sentiment will continue to dominate the oil market [2]. Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Aluminum, Alumina, Stainless Steel, Nickel, Copper, Zinc [1] - **Bearish**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Shandong Gasoline, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, PVC, LPG [1] - **Neutral or Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Benzene, Styrene, Chlor - Alkali, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the stock index is likely to fluctuate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - The market uncertainty has resurfaced, and the gold price has stabilized and rebounded. The macro and commodity attributes may still support the silver price, but the fundamentals may limit its upside [1] - The recent improvement in market sentiment and the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventory have led to a strong aluminum price. The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has boosted market risk appetite and commodity prices [1] - The supply - side impact of some metal - related events is limited, and metal prices are affected by macro - sentiment and related metal price movements [1] - For agricultural products, factors such as production forecasts, policy changes, and price differentials affect market trends. For example, Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and domestic corn and soybean meal have different outlooks [1] - In the energy and chemical sectors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors influence prices. For instance, the cooling of the Middle East situation and OPEC+ actions affect oil prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is likely to fluctuate strongly driven by sentiment and liquidity, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Currently in a period of asset - liability and weak economy, but the central bank's recent interest - rate risk warning suppresses the upside [1] - **Gold**: The market uncertainty has resurfaced, and the price has stabilized and rebounded [1] - **Silver**: The macro and commodity attributes may still support the price, but the fundamentals may limit its upside [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Recently, the market risk appetite has recovered, and the short - term price is strong due to the squeeze - out situation of US copper and LME copper [1] - **Aluminum**: The recent improvement in market sentiment and the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventory have led to a strong price [1] - **Alumina**: The Fed's expected interest - rate cut has boosted market risk appetite and commodity prices, and it is short - term strong [1] - **Zinc**: Affected by news, it fell in the short term, but rebounded with the sharp rise in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - sentiment [1] - **Nickel**: After the improvement in commodity sentiment, the price rebounded from the short - term bottom, but the upside is limited. In the long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot trading has improved periodically, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Short - term operation is recommended [1] - **Tin**: The supply of mines is difficult to recover in the short term, and the price rebounded with the improvement of macro - sentiment [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: There are short - term factory production restrictions. Temporarily wait and see [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term production has increased slightly, demand is weakening, supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Focus on selling hedging opportunities when the futures are at a premium [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: According to Malay high - frequency data, it is likely to accumulate inventory in June, which is bearish [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Before the anti - dumping investigation result of Canadian rapeseed is announced, it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums; in the long term, macro - uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the long - term production may be affected by the crude oil price [1] - **Corn**: The short - term is affected by import and auction news, and the C09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly later [1] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to be tight, and the domestic soybean meal price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: The Middle East situation has cooled, OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and the long - term supply - demand tends to be loose [1] - **Shandong Gasoline**: Affected by cost and demand factors, it is bearish [1] - **Natural Rubber and BR Rubber**: The downstream demand is weakening, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is bearish [1] - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol**: The market is affected by factors such as device maintenance, supply - demand, and cost [1] - **PVC and Chlor - Alkali**: After the end of maintenance, new devices are put into production, and the supply pressure increases, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - **LPG**: The 7 - month CP price has been lowered, and the short - term price has a downward space [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: The freight rate is expected to peak in mid - July, and the subsequent capacity deployment is sufficient [1]

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for June is at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery trend in manufacturing sentiment[8] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is at 50.2%, rising 0.4 percentage points, signaling a return to expansion[9] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is at 51%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, reflecting ongoing recovery in production[12] Employment and Market Sentiment - The employment index within the manufacturing PMI is at 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment sentiment[14] - Small enterprises show a PMI index of 47.3%, down 2 percentage points, highlighting challenges in the employment market[13] - The overall employment market sentiment is showing signs of slowing down, with expectations for income and employment potentially weakening[26] Inflation and Pricing Trends - The PPI year-on-year growth rate is estimated to be around -3.4% for June, indicating a continued decline in producer prices[18] - The gap between new orders and production PMI narrowed slightly to -0.8%, suggesting a minor improvement in supply-demand balance[18] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion, with construction sector PMI at 52.8%, reflecting strong growth driven by fiscal policies[20] - The service sector PMI is at 50.2%, showing a slight decline, likely due to seasonal factors following holiday periods[24] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in market risk appetite, supported by easing concerns over U.S. tariff policies and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September[27] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is assessed to be higher than in July, with current market expectations indicating a 76% chance of a 25 basis point cut[28]