投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-23 延续股强债弱格局 股指期权方面，昨日成交额70.28亿元，相较前一交易日上升30. 20%，流动性进一步上行。情绪指标方面，前一日提到持仓量PCR短期动量 效应仍存，同时各品种偏度数据基本延续前一日低位，看涨预期偏强， 因此方向层面仍可随市布局上涨。操作建议上，中短期可布局牛市价差， 主线维持备兑。 国债期货方面，债市延续偏弱表现，其背后仍受风险偏好抬升以及股 市表现偏强导致的股债跷跷板效应的影响。从资金面来看，昨日继续有所 转松，资金利率继续有所下行，DR001和DR007加权利率分别由1.36%和1. 49%降至1.31%和1.47%。不过资金面的转松并未对债市情绪形成太大提 振。后续来看，债市整体或仍需维持谨慎，短期利空因素较多，尤其是长 端可能受影响较大，可适当关注长端空头套保操作。 风险因子：1）增量资金不足；2）期权流动性超预期；3）关税超预 期；4）供给超预期；5）货币宽松超预期 股指期货：沪指继续新⾼ 股指期权：⽇内⾼振幅带动短线交易 国债期货：股债跷跷板继续演绎 股指期货方面， 昨日整体飘 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The market sentiment for various commodities and financial products shows different trends due to a combination of supply - demand factors, policy expectations, and macro - economic conditions. Some products are expected to be strong in the short - term, while others face downward pressure or uncertainty [1][2][4][5][6][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance, causing concerns about demand slowdown and supply increase, leading to a weak and volatile market. High - level short - selling operations are recommended [4]. - **PTA**: With average device maintenance, expected new production, strong downstream polyester factory reduction expectations in July, and weak terminal demand, the supply - demand outlook is weak, and the driving force is also weak [4]. - **Rubber**: Weather disturbances in production areas keep raw material prices firm, and the demand side is improving. However, due to difficult inventory reduction, there is still upward pressure on prices in the short - term. A cautious short - long approach is recommended [5]. **Metals** - **Silver**: The conflict between the Trump administration and the Fed over interest rate cuts creates uncertainty. The decline of the US dollar index drives gold up, and silver follows. A bullish outlook is maintained before the end - of - July interest rate meeting [8]. - **Gold**: US trade negotiations with other countries increase global economic downward pressure and volatility in tariffs, increasing risk - aversion sentiment. The decline of the US dollar index is beneficial to gold. Attention should be paid to the US dollar - gold seesaw effect [8]. **Industrial Goods** - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to increase, and downstream replenishment is active. With the fermentation of anti - involution policy expectations, the short - term futures market is strong. The reference support level for the 2509 contract is 980 yuan/ton [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Steel production remains high, and the demand for silicon iron is resilient. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [2]. **Agricultural Products** - Not covered in the provided content. **Financial Products** - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: The capital market becomes more liquid, and short - term interest rates are expected to decline, which is beneficial to short - term bonds. However, the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6]. - **Medium - and Long - term Treasury Bonds**: Policy support for infrastructure construction is expected to increase in the second half of the year, which is negative for the bond market. The main logic of the bond market is the stock - bond seesaw [6].

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term trends of various commodities are diverse. For example, coke and steel prices may be strong in the short - term, while asphalt may be weak, and some commodities like PX and iron ore are expected to be in a high - level oscillation state. For financial products, the bond market is affected by multiple factors such as infrastructure investment and the stock - bond seesaw effect, and precious metals like gold are influenced by tariff and trade factors [2][3][5]. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Coke**: On July 21, the market price was strong. Mainstream market coke prices planned to increase, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton from July 22. With smooth shipments, low inventories at coke enterprises, rising coking coal prices, and high iron - water production at steel mills, coke is expected to be strong in the short - term [2]. - **Steel (Thread Steel)**: On July 21, domestic steel prices rose significantly. With improved steel mill benefits, increased blast - furnace iron - water production, and rising coking coal prices, but considering coal production resumption and weak downstream demand in the off - season, steel prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments are rising, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level, and port inventories may decline slightly. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [6]. - **Silver**: There is a struggle between the Fed and the White House over interest rate cuts. With the dollar index falling, silver follows gold and is expected to be bullish before the end - of - July interest - rate meeting [10]. - **Gold**: Due to tariff fluctuations, possible EU - US trade frictions, and a falling dollar index, gold prices are rising. Attention should be paid to the dollar - gold seesaw effect [12]. - **Alkali (Soda Ash)**: The mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is in a downward oscillation. With increased production and inventory, stable float - glass production, and falling glass inventory, the soda ash market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with an upper pressure at 1330 [13]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Iran will hold nuclear negotiations, and the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. The impact on supply is expected to be small. Oil prices are in a multi - empty stalemate, with OPEC+ maintaining an increase in production but limited actual supply growth. Short - term observation is recommended [5]. - **Asphalt**: Domestic asphalt production has increased, with inventory rising and demand weak. It is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Methanol**: With stable coal prices, expected high - level increase in domestic methanol production, weak downstream demand, and possible port inventory accumulation, the methanol market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a lower support at 2390 [12]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: On July 21, the pork price rose. With some areas' price support and increasing second - fattening, but weak terminal demand, short - term prices will oscillate. Short - term long trading is recommended, and farmers can choose to hedge [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of major oils has increased. With the digestion of positive news and weak demand, palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [7][8]. - **Soybean Meal**: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean meal has increased. With sufficient downstream inventory, prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [8]. Chemicals - **PX**: The supply of PX has changed slightly, with weak demand support and limited oil - price support. It is expected to oscillate, with some pressure on spot prices but cost - side support [6]. - **Polypropylene**: With falling production, sufficient supply, and stable inventory, under policy support, the PP 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a lower support at 7070 [10]. Bonds - **Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: Infrastructure investment increases economic expectations, which is negative for the bond market. Whether the ten - year Treasury bond can break through the high - level oscillation range needs further observation. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July and the stock - bond seesaw effect [9]. - **Short - Term Treasury Bonds**: With the central bank's net investment, the tight money situation has improved. Short - term bond prices are expected to rise more strongly than long - term bonds, but the bond market is still affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a resurgence, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, leading to a shift in wealth management dynamics as deposit rates decline and investors seek alternative investment opportunities [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The balance of existing wealth management products at China Merchants Bank reached 1.62 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 31.4%, the highest among the six major state-owned bank wealth management subsidiaries [3]. - The wealth management market is projected to reach 30.97 trillion yuan by June 2025, an increase of 1.3 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year, indicating a significant shift in domestic wealth management logic [2]. Group 2: Investment Preferences - Investors are increasingly favoring low-risk fixed-income products due to low interest rates and heightened market volatility, leading to a surge in demand for deposit alternatives [3][5]. - The average annualized yield of fixed-income wealth management products reached 2.79% in the first half of the year, significantly exceeding the one-year deposit rate of major state-owned banks, which has fallen below 1% [3][5]. Group 3: Product Innovation - China Merchants Bank has launched three fixed-income, five-year closed-end pension wealth management products, with a total scale exceeding 4 billion yuan and an annualized average yield of 4.88%, ranking second in the market [6]. - The issuance of ESG-themed wealth management products has also seen growth, with 11 such products existing by June 2025, and a 54.59% increase in the scale of these products compared to the previous year [6]. Group 4: Challenges in Distribution - The promotion of wealth management products through internet channels faces challenges, including regulatory restrictions and the lack of direct sales qualifications for many platforms, limiting their ability to convert traffic into sales [9]. - Competition for customer attention is intense, with major traffic concentrated in third-party channels like Ant Group and Tian Tian Fund, making it difficult for wealth management companies to compete [9]. Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - To address these challenges, companies are advised to build a "content + companionship" system for investor education, leverage technology for precise user engagement, and utilize the advantages of third-party distribution channels [9][10].

Group 1 - The report argues that an increase in the equity market does not necessarily lead to a rise in interest rates, indicating a potential for a simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds [5][8][15] - Historical patterns show that both scenarios of rising equity markets with either rising or falling interest rates have occurred, suggesting that the underlying reasons for stock market increases are crucial [9][11] - The current stock market rise is attributed to improved governance expectations and economic transformation, rather than a significant increase in household deposits moving into equities [11][13] Group 2 - The report highlights that the fixed income market is experiencing a high issuance of interest rate bonds, with an expected issuance of 940.8 billion yuan this week, indicating a robust supply environment [16][18] - Recent data shows a significant increase in reverse repos and a net injection of liquidity by the central bank, which has implications for bond market dynamics [23][24] - The report notes that the leverage ratio in the bond market has risen above seasonal averages, reflecting increased trading activity and potential adjustments in investor strategies [13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current core combination of "weak fundamental recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the loose capital situation continues to support the bond market, with limited adjustment space. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of treasury bond futures in the short term and make allocations after stabilization. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: On July 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL主力 contracts decreased by 0.01%, 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.46% respectively; the trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL主力 contracts were 88,280, 72,060, 31,667, and 118,236 respectively, with increases of 3,602, 700, 91, and 6,587 respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TF09 - T09 showed changes, with TL2512 - 2509 decreasing by 0.05, T2512 - 2509 decreasing by 0.03, and TF09 - T09 remaining unchanged. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, and TL主力 increased by 2,166, 3,892, and 962 respectively, while the position of TS主力 decreased by 1,247. [2] 3.2 CTD Bond Data - The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, and 240020.IB decreased, with 220010.IB dropping by 0.1004, 250007.IB dropping by 0.0632, and 240020.IB dropping by 0.1193. [2] 3.3 Treasury Bond Active Bond Yields - The yields of 1 - 7Y treasury bonds increased by 0.25 - 1.60bp, while the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds increased by 1.05bp and 1.50bp respectively, reaching 1.67% and 1.89%. [2] 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 3.99bp to 1.3601%, and the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 9.60bp to 1.3660%. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The central bank is soliciting opinions on canceling the regulation of freezing the collateral for bond repurchase until August 17. [2] - In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. [2] - The LPR quotes in July remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. [2] 3.6 Market Analysis - Domestic: In June, industrial added value and social retail sales slightly rebounded, fixed - asset investment remained stable, and the unemployment rate was flat. Social financing exceeded expectations, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Exports and imports rebounded significantly, but price levels were under pressure. [2] - Overseas: The US core CPI in June was continuously lower than expected, but inflation risks continued to rise. The Fed's internal differences on the impact of tariffs on the inflation path increased, and the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut decreased. [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On July 21 at 22:00, the US June Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate will be released. - On July 23 at 17:15, the Bank of England Governor and other officials will speak at the UK Parliament's Treasury Committee. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Commodities**: Different commodities show various trends. Some are expected to be bullish (e.g., short - term coal, iron ore), some bearish or lack upward momentum (e.g., plastic), and others are expected to oscillate (e.g., crude oil, glass, methanol) [1][2][4][5][6][10][11] - **Livestock**: The short - term pig price is expected to be slightly stronger, and short - term long trading is recommended [8] - **Agricultural Products**: For rapeseed meal, it is recommended to go long at low prices; palm oil is expected to be strong in high - level oscillations [9] - **Bonds**: The long - term bond market is facing a critical choice, and short - term bonds may have stronger upward momentum [12] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in oscillations [13] 3. Summaries by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: The EU approved sanctions on Russia, and the US drilling rig count decreased. OPEC+ maintains an increase stance, but actual supply growth is limited. Short - term observation is recommended [6] - **Fuel Oil**: In the short term, the price may be supported by the peak power generation season in the Middle East, showing a tight supply - demand balance. An oscillation strategy is recommended [8] Metals - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, port arrivals increased, and steel mill profitability and molten iron production increased. The price is expected to be strong in oscillations [5] - **Steel**: The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by policies, the short - term market is expected to be strong in oscillations [4] - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, there is uncertainty. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in oscillations [13] Chemicals - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply is expected to increase, demand is in the off - season, and cost provides some support. The L09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [2] - **Methanol**: Coal prices are expected to be stable, domestic methanol production is expected to increase, and demand is expected to be weak. The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - **PTA (Bottle Chip)**: Supply is decreasing, but downstream inventory - building willingness is low. An oscillation strategy is recommended [7] - **Glass**: The daily melting volume of float glass enterprises is stable, terminal demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. The glass 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: Canadian rapeseed exports increased, but its addition ratio in feed is low. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9] - **Palm Oil**: Indonesian palm oil production is expected to decrease, and it is expected to be strong in high - level oscillations [9] Livestock - **Pig**: Pig prices rose slightly on weekends. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, and short - term long trading is recommended. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [8] Bonds - **Long - term Bonds**: Bank - to - bank regulation is strengthening, and there are uncertainties in the long - term bond market. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [12] - **Short - term Bonds**: The short - term interest rate is expected to decline, and short - term bonds may have stronger upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the direction choice near the 60 - day moving average [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, bond yields declined slightly, partially offsetting the increase from the previous week due to restrictions on rural commercial banks' bond purchases. However, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect still restricts the downward space of bond yields in the short term. There are two types of stock market bull runs: fundamental - driven and liquidity - driven. The fundamental - driven bull run causes a shift in risk preference between stocks and bonds, while the liquidity - driven bull run benefits both asset classes. Given the current economic data, the fundamental - driven bull run logic requires third - quarter data for verification and will not lead to an obvious reversal of the "stock - bond seesaw" effect but will make it difficult for bond yields to break through key points. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will range from 1.65% - 1.7%, presenting allocation opportunities [2][16] - Overseas markets continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries had a weaker upward movement than the long - end. Global central banks face challenges in coordinating policies due to regional supply - demand imbalances during the "re - globalization" process, and the view of relying on external monetary easing may underestimate the regional characteristics of this imbalance [3][17] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Viewpoints - **Bond Market Downward Space Analysis**: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond decreased by 0.2bp from 1.666% to 1.664%. Throughout the week, various economic data and events influenced bond yields. On Monday, better - than - expected economic data led to a slight increase in bond yields, but the central bank's positive attitude towards bond - buying and liquidity injection later caused yields to decline. Tuesday's mixed economic data and a stock market decline drove bond yields down. Wednesday's rise in US CPI data slightly negatively affected the bond market. Thursday saw both the stock and bond markets oscillating. Friday's end of the tax period and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect had mixed impacts on bond yields [1][14][15] - **US Economic Data and Bond Yield Outlook**: This week, overseas markets continued the previous week's direction, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries had a weaker upward movement than the long - end. Market concerns about Trump's tariff policies and the use of short - term US Treasuries as stablecoin reserves support the short - end of US Treasuries. Global central banks face challenges in coordinating policies due to regional supply - demand imbalances [3][17] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open Market Operations**: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the total net injection in open - market operations was 12,011 billion yuan [36] - **Money Market Interest Rates**: Compared with the previous week, most money market interest rates remained stable, with only a slight increase in the 14 - day interest rate [38] 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **US Economic Data**: In June 2025, the US CPI exceeded market expectations, while the PPI was lower than expected. The July Michigan Consumer Index continued to rise, with the confidence index reaching a five - month high. The number of initial jobless claims continued to decline, while the number of continued claims increased slightly but was lower than expected. Fed Governor Waller hinted at potentially opposing a rate cut [5][20][21] - **Domestic Economic Data**: Steel prices increased, and the total commercial housing transaction area decreased across the board [61][64] 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 60 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 251.183 billion yuan, including 62.137 billion yuan in refinancing bonds, 161.424 billion yuan in new special bonds, and 27.622 billion yuan in new general bonds. The total repayment amount was 100.685 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 150.499 billion yuan. The main investment direction was comprehensive [72] - 11 provinces and cities issued local bonds this week, with Fujian, Liaoning, and Yunnan having the top three issuance amounts [77] 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the local bond stock was 52.04 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 38.5779 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.74%. The top three most actively traded provinces were Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan, and the top three most actively traded maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [90] - The local bond yields generally declined this week [92] 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan No specific content provided. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 344 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 281.266 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 236.046 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 45.22 billion yuan, which was 43.124 billion yuan less than last week [96] - Specifically, local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bonds had a net financing amount of - 12.414 billion yuan, while industrial bonds had a net financing amount of 57.634 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing amount of - 26.401 billion yuan, medium - term notes had 47.259 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had - 37.02 billion yuan, corporate bonds had 33.198 billion yuan, and private placement notes had - 51.34 billion yuan [99][103] 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - This week, the actual issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds all decreased [110] 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 543.018 billion yuan [111] 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bank bonds, short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and LGFV bonds generally declined this week [113][115][116][117] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - This week, the credit spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and enterprise bonds all narrowed, while the credit spreads of LGFV bonds generally narrowed [118][123][126] 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - This week, the grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, while the grade spreads of LGFV bonds generally widened [130][135][138] 3.4.7 Trading Activity - This week, the top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed in the report, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by the public utilities, finance, materials, and energy sectors [141][142] 3.4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - The credit ratings or outlooks of several companies, including Qingdao Caito Group Co., Ltd. and Wuhan East Lake High - tech Group Co., Ltd., were upgraded this week [146]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF from Bosera has shown a mixed performance with a slight increase in value, while new listings of technology innovation bond ETFs have significantly boosted the market size and liquidity [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 17, 2025, the Bosera credit bond ETF has increased by 0.28% this month, ranking 1 out of 4 among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF's latest price is 101.36 yuan, with a trading volume of 50.33 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [3]. - Over the past six months, the net value of the Bosera credit bond ETF has risen by 1.36%, placing it 23 out of 477 in the index bond fund rankings [4]. Group 2: Fund Size and Liquidity - The Bosera credit bond ETF has reached a new high in size at 129.32 billion yuan, ranking 2 out of 4 among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has seen a significant increase in shares, with a growth of 297,000 shares over the past two weeks, also ranking 2 out of 4 [3]. - The recent inflow of funds has been stable, with a total of 4.86 billion yuan attracted over the last ten trading days [4]. Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The maximum drawdown since inception for the Bosera credit bond ETF is 0.89%, with a recovery time of 26 days [4]. - The ETF has a historical monthly profit probability of 75.96% and a 100% probability of profit over a six-month holding period [4]. - The management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [4]. Group 4: Tracking and Precision - The Bosera credit bond ETF closely tracks the Shenzhen benchmark market-making credit bond index, reflecting the operational characteristics of the credit bond market [5]. - The tracking error for the ETF this year is 0.009%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of the upward movement of bond yields in this round may shift from the previous "tightening of funds by the central bank → upward movement of bond yields" to "trend - upward movement of the stock market → upward movement of bond yields" [5] - If the economy is relatively stable in the second half of the year and inflation recovers moderately, the funds rate may rise with a lag, and this kind of funds tightening is irreversible, pushing the yields to rise continuously in a step - by - step manner [5] - If the economy does not decline significantly in the second half of the year, funds in the bond market may gradually flow out, and the flow pattern may be "stock market rise → lagged rise in bond yields → final rise in the funds rate". For the convertible bond market, if the economy does not decline significantly, off - market funds may flow in trend - wise [6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Three Dimensions of the Stock - Bond Seesaw - Intraday seesaw: When the bond lacks a main - line logic, the risk preference of the stock market may affect the bond trend, but it is mainly a short - term disturbance [2] - Periodic seesaw: It is often related to the short - term and drastic flow of funds. When the stock market rises significantly, it may lead to the concentrated redemption of bond funds and the inflow into stock funds, causing a short - term and obvious adjustment in the bond market [2] - Trend - based seesaw: For example, in 2017 and from May to December 2020, the stock market rose and bond yields went up; in 2018, the stock market fell and bond yields declined [2] 2. Essence of the Trend - based Stock - Bond Seesaw - Except for the period from 2014 - 2015, the trend - upward movement of the stock market usually occurs when the economy is improving, corresponding to the trend - upward movement of bond yields [3] - The trend - upward movement of the stock market leads the upward movement of bond yields. For example, in November 2008, the stock market started to rise, while for bonds it was January 2009 [3] 3. Four Logics for the Stock Market's Leading Role - The stock market is more sensitive to the economy as stock trading is often bottom - up and more sensitive to changes in micro - entities [4] - The stock market represents the market - based endogenous driving force. Only when market expectations continue to improve will the stock market show a trend - upward movement [4] - Bond investors have strong stickiness because of the coupon income of bond assets. As long as the yields do not rise significantly, holding bonds to obtain coupons is often the dominant choice [4] - Due to the relative - return - based assessment mechanism of bond funds, bond investors have difficulty in reducing the duration [4]