1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the macro - economy will consolidate its bottom. It will be a year of weak recovery, featuring export support, stable investment, and weak consumption. Policy will remain positive, with fiscal policy staying active and a low - interest - rate environment continuing. In terms of asset allocation, stocks are preferred over commodities, and commodities over bonds [83]. - The Chinese economy is entering a new cycle from 2026, led by artificial intelligence, with new technologies evolving and being transformed into product advantages through China's industrial chain [84]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Fundamentals - **Industrial Production**: Except for automobiles, the growth rate of major industrial products remains low. The increase in automobile production this year supports the growth of industrial added value. Next year, the growth rate of domestic automobile sales may decline, but the overall automobile industry will be supported by exports, and the growth rate of automobile industrial added value is likely to fall but not decline [6]. - **Fixed - asset Investment**: The decline in fixed - asset investment growth has accelerated, and it turned negative from January to September. In 2026, more powerful policies will be introduced to boost investment, and many projects postponed this year will start construction [9]. - **Consumption**: The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods has declined, and consumer confidence is hovering at a low level. The reasons include weak income and income expectations, high household leverage, imperfect social security, and a low proportion of household disposable income in GDP [14]. - **Inflation**: The inflation situation will remain weak for a long time. Downstream commodity consumption is poor, while service consumption such as tourism performs better. PPI faces downward pressure on production material prices, and the overall manufacturing scale keeps industrial product prices under long - term pressure [20]. - **Employment**: Unemployment has seasonally increased with the entry of college graduates into the labor market. The cumulative year - on - year growth of newly - added urban employment has flattened, and creating new jobs is becoming more difficult [26]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: Manufacturing PMI has been continuously weak. In the PMI sub - items, the sub - item of the purchase price of major raw materials is above the boom - bust line, and the sub - item of purchase volume fluctuates with the production sub - item, with a larger fluctuation range. Other sub - items are below the boom - bust line [30]. - **Inventory**: Production is significantly stronger than consumption, finished - product inventory is rising, and downstream demand is weaker [34]. - **Construction and Service Industry PMI**: The PMI of the construction industry and its important sub - items are at a low level in recent years, indicating the industry's downturn [38]. - **Foreign Trade**: The growth rate of imports and exports is better than expected. Exports are resilient, and China's share in global exports is increasing. New "new three items" (robots, artificial intelligence, and innovative drugs) are becoming new drivers of industrial upgrading and foreign trade growth [41][44]. - **Chip Industry**: The effect of chip import substitution has emerged in recent years. The growth rate of chip exports is much higher than that of imports, and a complete Chinese chip industry chain independent of the US is rising. It is expected to become a net exporter in 5 - 10 years [46]. 3.2 Macro - economic Highlights - **Automobile Industry**: Automobile production, sales, and exports will reach new highs this year. Although the growth rate of domestic sales may face pressure due to the withdrawal of subsidies, it may be maintained with the launch of new technologies and models. This year's automobile exports are expected to reach 750 - 800 million vehicles, with a year - on - year growth of about 18%, and the growth rate of overseas exports is expected to remain at a good level next year [51]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits**: The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above a designated size has rebounded. From January to August, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of total profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size turned positive, and the year - on - year growth rate in August was 20%. With the implementation of "anti - involution" policies and interest - rate cuts, enterprise profits are expected to improve [54]. - **Stock Market and Economy**: When the M1 - M2 spread turns positive, PPI may also turn positive, indicating a possible bull market in both stocks and commodities. "Anti - involution" may end the decline of PPI. The growth rate of M1 is basically synchronous with the rise of the stock market [57]. - **Real Estate**: The data reflecting the scale of ongoing real estate projects has returned to the level of 2005, and housing prices are still falling month - on - month. The real estate market is in the process of bottom - building. The new housing start - up area may gradually stabilize, and there is a possibility of a retaliatory rise in housing prices in the future [60]. - **Stock Market and Asset Allocation**: There is still room for "deposit migration". The ratio of the total market value of the stock market to household deposits is low, and the trend of households allocating more assets to the stock market has just begun. A bull market can stimulate economic growth, assist economic transformation, improve the corporate financing environment, relieve debt pressure, and enhance international competitiveness [63][64]. - **Technological Progress and Stock Market**: Technologies such as artificial intelligence and robots are likely to be first applied in China. The chip industry is the last major short - board before China becomes a technological superpower. Technological innovation and manufacturing are the core of the "14th Five - Year Plan", and new technologies will promote productivity and expand industrial chain advantages [65]. 3.3 Policy Outlook for 2026 - **Fiscal Policy**: The government's leverage ratio is relatively low and there is room for further leverage. Loose fiscal policy is expected to last for a long time. Consumption subsidies are likely to continue in some form for 2 - 3 years, and other measures such as increasing the deficit scale and transfer payment intensity will also be taken [69]. - **Monetary Policy**: The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has remained low for a long time, and the money supply will remain loose with room for further decline in interest rates. The Fed's interest - rate cuts provide space for China's central bank to cut interest rates, and domestic commercial banks have already lowered deposit rates [71][82]. - **Exchange Rate Policy**: The US dollar has opened up a downward space, and bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange have turned into a surplus. Overseas hot money is flowing into China, causing the RMB to face more appreciation pressure than depreciation pressure. The RMB's share in international trade is increasing [77][79]. 3.4 Main Conclusions and Suggestions - **Economic Outlook**: In 2026, the macro - economy will be in a weak recovery. Real estate investment will gradually stabilize, infrastructure investment growth will pick up, and exports will maintain a high growth rate. Policy will remain positive, and consumption will be a lagging variable [83]. - **Economic Cycle**: The Chinese economy is entering a new cycle, with artificial intelligence leading the way, and new technologies being transformed into product advantages [84]. - **Risk Analysis**: In 2026, there may be new Sino - US trade frictions, the risk of the bursting of the US artificial intelligence bubble and its spill - over effects, and the risk of a significant correction in the Chinese stock market due to high valuations [85].

Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, the current supply - demand situation of new energy metals is favorable. Lithium carbonate leads the rise in new energy metals due to accelerated inventory reduction, and short - long opportunities in lithium carbonate are worth attention. In the long run, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to shrink, and the price center may rise. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated [2]. - The price of industrial silicon is supported by the reduction in production during the dry season and the clearance of warehouse receipts. The price of polysilicon stops falling and stabilizes after the PV Association refutes the rumors. The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate remains strong, and the price fluctuates at a high level [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is supported by the reduction in production during the dry season and the clearance of warehouse receipts [7]. - **Information Analysis**: - The spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China are stable at 9,500 yuan/ton and 9,750 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - The latest domestic inventory of industrial silicon is 461,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%. Among them, the market inventory is 185,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, and the factory inventory is 277,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% [7]. - As of October 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon is 452,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to October, the cumulative production is 3.469 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% [7]. - In September, the export volume of industrial silicon is 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume is 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [7]. - The newly installed PV capacity in September is 9.66GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76%. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed PV capacity reaches 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the dry season in the southwest leads to a rapid decline in the number of open furnaces, and most silicon plants will enter the shutdown and maintenance stage. The supply in the northwest fluctuates slightly without obvious increase. On the demand side, the demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline slightly in November. The organic silicon DMC market operates weakly and stably, and the terminal demand is still weak. The demand for aluminum alloy increases slightly. The clearance of warehouse receipts of industrial silicon supports the price [7]. - **Outlook**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate due to the reduction in production in the southwest during the dry season and the continuous clearance of warehouse receipts, as well as the continuous fluctuation of coal prices in the short term [7]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: After the PV Association refutes the false rumors, the price of polysilicon stops falling and stabilizes [8]. - **Information Analysis**: - The成交 price range of N - type re - feeding polysilicon is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and the average成交 price is 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week [8]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9,850 lots, unchanged from the previous value [8]. - In September, the export volume of polysilicon is about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume is 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. In September, the import volume of polysilicon is about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume is 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26% [8]. - From January to September 2025, the newly installed domestic PV capacity is 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative newly installed PV capacity is 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [8]. - In November, the production schedule of domestic component enterprises varies. The production schedule of leading enterprises increases slightly, while most other enterprises reduce production to clear inventory. The overall production schedule in November is expected to be less than 44.5GW [8]. - **Main Logic**: The PV Association refutes the rumors and promotes industry self - discipline. The supply of polysilicon will shrink in November due to the dry season, and the production is expected to drop below 120,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon may weaken from November, and the downstream demand is starting to decline. Overall, the supply - demand of polysilicon is still under pressure, but the production will decrease during the dry season, and there are still policy expectations. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts the price of polysilicon, but the current inventory pressure is still large, so the price is expected to fluctuate widely [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate remains strong, and the price fluctuates at a high level [11]. - **Information Analysis**: - On November 12, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 0.05% to 86,580 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 11,610 lots to 1,004,426 lots [11]. - On November 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 83,300 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 81,100 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) increased by 9 US dollars/ton to 984 US dollars/ton. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 188 lots to 28,287 lots [11]. - Australian lithium miner Liontown announced a cooperation with Metalshub to sell the spot of Kathleen Valley spodumene concentrate to global customers through its digital platform. The first auction will be held on November 19, 2025, with the target of 10,000 tons of spodumene concentrate, and a series of auction activities are planned to be launched in 2026 and later [11]. - **Main Logic**: The current market supply and demand are both strong, and inventory reduction is expected to continue from November to December. However, the supply expectation is uncertain, which may cause large price fluctuations. On the supply side, the monthly production of lithium carbonate continues to increase significantly, but there is a shortage of ore, which restricts the supply of lithium salt. On the demand side, the apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the continuation of demand and the performance in the off - season of the first quarter of next year. The optimistic expectation of energy storage consumption will generate speculative demand when the price falls, raising the price center. The social inventory continues to be reduced, and the warehouse receipts have stabilized recently, but further decline should be vigilant. In the short - to - medium term, the resumption of production of Xianxiawo is the key factor affecting the balance sheet. In the long run, with the optimistic demand, a bullish approach is recommended, and long positions can be appropriately bought after a pull - back [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: No specific monitoring content provided. - **Polysilicon**: No specific monitoring content provided. - **Lithium Carbonate**: No specific monitoring content provided. 3. Commodity Index - On November 12, 2025, the comprehensive index, the specialty index (including the commodity 20 index, the industrial product index, and the PPI commodity index) of CITIC Futures all increased. The new energy commodity index increased by 0.89% on the day, 3.80% in the past 5 days, 9.13% in the past month, and 4.22% since the beginning of the year [53][54].

Market Overview - The market showed a strong upward trend in the early session, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising nearly 2% and the ChiNext Index increasing over 2% after a low opening. The CSI A500 Index saw a rise of 1.33% [1] Sector Performance - The lithium battery industry chain experienced a significant surge, while the Fujian sector continued to rise. Conversely, the banking sector showed weak performance [1] ETF Trading Activity - By the morning close, ETFs tracking the CSI A500 Index rose over 1%. Notably, 12 CSI A500-related ETFs had trading volumes exceeding 100 million yuan, with 2 surpassing 3.1 billion yuan. The A500 ETF Fund and the CSI A500 ETF had trading volumes of 3.329 billion yuan and 3.156 billion yuan, respectively [1][2] Market Outlook - According to brokerage firms, the foundation for the current slow bull market remains intact due to ongoing global technology investment enthusiasm, the continuous promotion of "anti-involution" policies, and increased household savings entering the market. There is potential for further strengthening of the A-share index in the future [1]

Group 1: CPI Trends - In October, Sichuan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [1][2] - The average CPI from January to October in Sichuan fell by 0.4% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Fresh vegetable and fruit prices increased by 5.7% and 2.2% month-on-month in October, primarily due to seasonal factors and the demand surge during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [2][3] - Pork prices continued to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year drop of 20.2%, attributed to sufficient market supply and the timing of seasonal consumption [3] - Egg prices also fell by 1.3% month-on-month due to temporary oversupply and post-holiday demand drop [4] Group 3: Core CPI Insights - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year in October, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase from the previous month, the highest since February 2023 [4] - Service prices contributed to the core CPI increase, with notable rises in air ticket prices (10.8%), travel agency fees (7.3%), and accommodation costs (3.4%) [4] Group 4: PPI Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Sichuan fell by 2.5% year-on-year in October, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%, reflecting a shift from previous increases [7] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a month-on-month price drop of 0.5%, while electricity and heat production prices decreased by 1.5% month-on-month [7] - Despite the overall decline, some industries, such as computer manufacturing and non-ferrous metal processing, showed signs of price recovery [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - For the fourth quarter, the PPI is expected to continue operating at low levels, but the rate of decline may narrow due to improved market demand and ongoing policy support [8] - The "anti-involution" policies are positively impacting certain industries, leading to a reduction in price declines in sectors like coal and metal processing [8]

Core Viewpoint - The adipic acid industry is currently experiencing low overall profitability, situated at a historical bottom, and is undergoing a phase of survival of the fittest with further concentration of production capacity [1] Industry Summary - The adipic acid industry is facing short-term pressures such as intensified competition, unmet demand expectations, and fluctuations in raw material prices [1] - However, the release of downstream demand, driven by economic recovery and "anti-involution" policies, is expected to significantly boost the consumption growth of adipic acid products [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, with production profit repair being sluggish, supply at a historically low level for the same period, downstream deep - processing orders being generally weak and below the previous year's level, and real - estate terminal demand being weak with high inventory. The short - term expectation is for the glass market to operate in a weak and volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1053 yuan/ton to 1049 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.38%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass remained unchanged at 1036 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from - 17 yuan/ton to - 13 yuan/ton, a change of - 23.53% [5]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1036 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [10]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - There is no specific content about the cost - side analysis other than the mention of glass production profit, but no detailed data is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 75.92%, and the daily melting volume is 15.91 tons, both at historically low levels for the same period. Influenced by policies such as "anti - involution" and environmental protection, there has been capacity clearance in the float glass industry, and production losses have occurred due to "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and cold repairs in the industry [21][23]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on consuming raw glass inventory [4]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.136 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.03% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [42]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet shows production, consumption, and other data from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94%, while the consumption growth rate is - 1.15% [43]. 3.8 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of "anti - involution" and environmental protection policies, there has been capacity clearance in the float glass industry, and production losses have occurred due to "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and cold repairs in the industry [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is that glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass market will operate in a weak and volatile manner at a low level. The risk point is that the intensity of the "anti - involution" policy may exceed expectations [3].

国家邮政局监测数据显示，10月21日至11月11日，全国邮政快递企业共揽收快递包裹139.38亿件，期间 日均揽收量达6.34亿件，是日常业务量的117.8%。旺季单日业务量峰值达7.77亿件，刷新单日业务量纪 录。 方正证券认为，"反内卷"涨价叠加旺季提价，快递单价趋势向好。前期行业监管自上而下坚决落实"反 内卷"政策，提价效果已在8—9月高频数据中如期兑现。10月全国各地再度推进新一轮底价提涨政策。 随着电商正式进入旺季，预计在"反内卷"政策背书+成本要素抬升等驱动下，行业或将继续迎来多轮提 价机会，四季度头部企业盈利改善幅度将更为显著。同时关注后续旺转淡窗口期的"反内卷"监管执行力 度、末端价格结构变化、政策端奖惩机制的持续性等。 银河证券认为，当前下沉电商等新业态成为快递行业主要驱动力，且呈现显著的轻小件化趋势。"反内 卷"政策成效持续释放，多地通过设定价格底线、配套罚款机制整治低价无序竞争，伴随行业格局进一 步优化和智能网联车辆科技赋能，头部快递企业发力打造差异化竞争优势，高质量发展将继续作为未来 发展方向。 ...

Core Insights - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive year-on-year at 0.2%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of 2.1%, indicating a recovery trend in prices driven by improved consumer demand and supply-side adjustments [12][23][24] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to promote supply clearance, leading to price improvements in key sectors such as coal, new energy, and automotive industries [20][23] Industry Overview Resource Sector - Prices for most metals and coal have increased, contributing to a positive outlook for the resource sector [1][20] - The PPI for coal mining and washing narrowed its decline to -15.6%, while the PPI for non-metallic mining improved to a growth of 2.1% [20][24] Information Technology - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index remained stable, while the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index declined by 2.15%. The DXI Index increased by 36.37% [25][26] - The import and export values of integrated circuits showed a rolling year-on-year decline, indicating a mixed performance in the semiconductor sector [25][26] Midstream Manufacturing - The prices across the new energy supply chain have generally risen, with significant increases in the prices of lithium raw materials and electrolytic nickel [20][24] - The production and sales of automobiles showed a rolling year-on-year decline, while new energy vehicle production increased by 21.37% [20][24] Consumer Services - The prices of fresh vegetables and fruits improved, contributing positively to the CPI, while the prices of pork and liquor continued to exert downward pressure [14][15][23] - The tourism and medical service sectors saw price increases due to heightened consumer demand during the holiday season [15][23] Financial and Real Estate - The monetary market experienced a net withdrawal, with a decline in A-share turnover rates and daily transaction volumes [24] - The land transaction premium rates and the area of commodity housing transactions both decreased, indicating a cooling real estate market [24] Public Utilities - The ex-factory price of natural gas in China decreased, and the average daily power generation of key power plants showed a widening year-on-year decline [24][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - As of the close on November 12, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like silver, tin, and crude oil rose, while container shipping, eggs, and jujubes declined. There were also fluctuations in stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The flow of funds into and out of different contracts varied [6][7]. - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and international trade situations. For example, copper prices are affected by supply uncertainties and weak downstream demand; lithium carbonate prices are supported by supply - demand tightness; and crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ decisions and geopolitical issues [9][11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of November 12, domestic futures main contracts had mixed performance. Silver, tin, butadiene rubber, SC crude oil, rapeseed oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and iron ore rose over 1%, while container shipping, eggs, and jujubes had significant drops. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also had different trends. In terms of funds, some contracts had inflows while others had outflows [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Supply: With long - term contract negotiations approaching, there is uncertainty in long - term contract prices and settlement methods. In November, 5 smelters are expected to conduct maintenance, affecting 4.80 million tons of production. The开工 rate of copper concentrate smelters decreased, while that of smelters using scrap copper or anode copper increased. Scrap copper supply is expected to increase [9] - Demand: The peak season was weaker than previous years, and downstream demand remained weak. Copper product开工 rates declined, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Supply: In October, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China decreased year - on - year, but domestic production continued to grow. The开工 rate increased [11] - Demand: Supported by the strong performance of energy - storage batteries, downstream procurement was smooth. The production of power, energy - storage, and consumer batteries increased, and new - energy vehicle sales also grew [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ decided to increase production in December but pause in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco lowered prices for Asian markets. US crude production reached a new high, and overall oil inventories increased slightly [12] - Demand: The peak consumption season ended, and market concerns about demand increased due to factors like the decline in the US manufacturing index [12] - Geopolitical factors: US sanctions on Russian oil companies, the US - Venezuela military stand - off, and the attitude of Indian oil companies towards Russian oil all affect the market [12][14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Supply: The开工 rate decreased slightly last week, and November's production is expected to decline. Some refineries plan to resume production [15] - Demand: Downstream开工 rates mostly increased, but were restricted by funds and weather. Northern projects are rushing to work, while southern demand is affected by rain [15] 3.2.5 PP - Supply: The开工 rate of PP enterprises increased, and new production capacity was put into operation. The proportion of standard - grade production increased [16][17] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate was at a low level in the same period. Orders had limited follow - up, and the market lacked large - scale purchases [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - Supply: The开工 rate increased, and new production capacity was put into operation or in trial operation [18] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate decreased. Although the agricultural film season was in progress, the peak season was not as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness was low [18] 3.2.7 PVC - Supply: The开工 rate increased and was at a relatively high level in the same period. New production capacity was put into operation, and some enterprises' maintenance was about to end [20] - Demand: The downstream开工 rate declined slightly. Exports are expected to weaken, and social inventory increased [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Supply: Mongolian coal imports increased, but domestic production decreased. Policy - driven production cuts and environmental protection warnings made the supply in a tight - balance situation [21] - Demand: Steel mills'开工 and iron - water production decreased, and downstream demand was weak [22] 3.2.9 Urea - Supply: Factory复产 and new production increased the daily output, and high production is expected to continue this month [23] - Demand: Downstream high - price acceptance was average, but demand in the Northeast increased. The market was affected by export news, and inventory was decreasing [23]

Group 1: Inflation Data - In October, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of food items in CPI recorded a decline of -2.9%, narrowing the drop by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous value[3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI decreased by -2.1% year-on-year in October, improving by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[16] - From July to October, the PPI year-on-year declines were -3.6%, -2.9%, -2.3%, and -2.1%, indicating a trend of monthly recovery[4] - The overall industrial product PPI decreased by -2.7% from January to October[16] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The rise in both CPI and the narrowing decline in PPI suggest a potential need for further stimulus policies to boost domestic demand and sustain inflation recovery[5] - The PPI is expected to continue to recover, supported by policies aimed at reducing internal competition and improving upstream prices[5] - Monitoring marginal changes in indicators such as food prices, oil prices, and coal prices is recommended[5] Group 4: Risks - Risks include potential underperformance in consumer recovery, unexpected economic recession, and unforeseen impacts from tariffs on related industries[20]