Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel products may show a volatile trend after challenging the previous low support level, as the arrival volume of iron ore at ports has increased significantly, port inventories are accumulating, iron ore valuations are relatively high, the consumption demand for finished products has entered the off - season, and the subsequent improvement in apparent demand is difficult. Additionally, recent macro - sentiment has weakened, and iron ore prices have declined while coking coal prices have corrected [3]. - The iron ore market is in a short - term pattern of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". With high global shipments, accumulating port inventories, shrinking steel mill profits, falling hot metal production, and high finished product inventory pressure, the upside potential for iron ore prices is limited [22]. - The demand for coking coal and coke has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustments. However, in the long - term, due to policies restricting coking coal supply elasticity and upcoming winter storage, the downward adjustment space for coking coal spot prices may be limited. If coking coal supply tightens in the fourth quarter and winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black industry may rise [34]. - Ferroalloys are expected to be volatile, as they have returned to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand after the macro - sentiment subsided, but are supported by the cost side [46]. - The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken due to the renewed expectation of glass cold repair. Although the cost side is expected to be firm, without production cuts, the valuation has limited upward elasticity. The medium - to long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the upper - and middle - stream inventories are high, restricting prices, but there is cost support below [55]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe will be gradually implemented this month, which may affect market supply and sentiment, but its impact is considered limited as the off - season approaches and the middle - stream inventory is high. The 01 contract of glass may continue to be highly contested until near delivery. Structurally, without unexpected production cuts, the price of the 01 contract of glass will tend to decline, but with cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3034, 3095, and 3132 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price changes compared to November 6. The closing prices of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3245, 3254, and 3276 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The spot prices of螺纹钢 and热卷 in different regions also showed certain changes on November 7 compared to November 6. For example, the汇总 price of螺纹钢 in China was 3226 yuan/ton, and the汇总 price of热卷 in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton [10][12]. - The卷螺差 and基差 of螺纹 steel and hot - rolled coils also had corresponding values and changes [16][10]. - The ratios of螺纹/铁矿 and螺纹/焦炭 remained stable on November 7 compared to November 6 [19]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 760.5, 740, and 722 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding基差 values. The prices of different iron ore varieties such as日照PB粉,日照卡粉, and日照超特 also decreased compared to November 6 [23]. - **Fundamentals**: - The日均铁水产量 was 234.22 million tons on November 7, showing a decreasing trend compared to previous periods. The 45港到港量 increased significantly, and the 45港库存 also continued to accumulate [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the仓单 costs and基差 of coking coal from different sources (such as唐山蒙5,口岸蒙5, etc.) and coke (such as日照港湿熄,晋中湿熄, etc.) had corresponding values and changes [37]. - The期货月差 of coking coal and coke also showed certain trends [37]. - **Fundamentals**: - The即期焦化利润 improved slightly, but most coking plants still suffered serious losses. The demand for coking coal and coke has reached a phased peak, and the number of steel mills under maintenance has increased [34]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - On November 7, 2025, the硅铁基差 in Ningxia was - 26, and the spot prices in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc. remained stable or decreased slightly compared to previous periods. The仓单 quantity increased [46]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - The硅锰基差 in Inner Mongolia was 210 on November 7, and the spot prices in different regions also showed certain changes. The仓单 quantity increased significantly [48]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of纯碱01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1210, 1294, and 1363 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding月差 values. The基差 values in different regions such as沙河 and Qinghai also changed [56]. - The重碱 and轻碱 market prices in different regions had corresponding values on November 7, and the价差 between重碱 and轻碱 also varied by region [59]. - **Fundamentals**: - The glass cold - repair expectation may lead to a weakening of the rigid demand for soda ash. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the medium - to long - term, and the upper - and middle - stream inventories are high [55]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of玻璃01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1091, 1225, and 1315 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding月差 values. The基差 values in different regions such as Shahe and Hubei also changed [84]. - **Fundamentals**: - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may affect market supply and sentiment, but the impact is limited due to the approaching off - season and high middle - stream inventory. The 01 contract of glass may continue to be highly contested until near delivery [83].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the domestic urea market showed a "first decline then rise" trend, affected by weather, supply - demand, and policy. Currently, the urea price is relatively low, and with the expected stabilization of coal prices, the downside space is limited. However, the supply will remain at a high level year - on - year, the demand is in the off - season, and the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern persists. In the fourth quarter, the urea market will face continuous supply pressure, lack strong demand drivers, and is likely to fluctuate at a low level [2][26] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - In mid - and early - October, after the National Day holiday, continuous rainfall delayed agricultural activities, weakening terminal purchasing willingness and increasing enterprise inventories. With the weakening of export support, prices declined. In mid - and late - October, prices reached a low of 1460 - 1470 yuan/ton, then demand increased, and positive policy signals boosted confidence, leading to price recovery. As of October 31, the Shandong Linyi market price was 1590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the urea 2601 contract closed at 1625 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.69% [6] Agricultural需求季节性推迟 - In October, agricultural urea demand was "delayed" due to continuous rainfall, which postponed corn harvest and wheat sowing, delaying fertilizer demand. Farmers adopted a "buy - as - you - use" strategy, increasing supply - demand imbalance. In the compound fertilizer sector, production and capacity utilization decreased in October, with a production of 362.87 million tons, a 22.16% month - on - month decline, and an average capacity utilization of 28.18%, down 8.02% month - on - month and 1.94% year - on - year. In September, urea exports were strong, with 137.12 million tons, but exports may decline in October [10][11][12] Supply高位运行 - In October, China's urea production was 588.19 million tons, an increase of 13.42 million tons from the previous month and a decrease of 0.71 million tons from the same period last year. There were new device overhauls and new capacity resumptions, with a slight reduction in overhaul losses, leading to production growth [17] Factory库存压力较大 - In October, domestic urea factory inventories first rose and then fell. In mid - and early - October, rainfall reduced demand and increased inventories. In mid - and late - October, inventories decreased slightly but remained high. At the end of October, factory inventories were 155.43 million tons, a 33.82% month - on - month and 30.30% year - on - year increase. Port inventories decreased significantly, ending at 21 million tons, a 57.69% month - on - month and 4.11% year - on - year decrease [19][20] 后市展望 - In terms of cost, coal prices are expected to stabilize, and cost support for urea prices may emerge. In terms of supply - demand, gas - based urea enterprises will enter the overhaul period in November, but coal - based production will remain high, and supply pressure persists. In November, agricultural demand enters the off - season, with demand mainly supported by reserves. Overall, the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern remains, and the market is likely to fluctuate at a low level in the fourth quarter [26]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 6810 yuan/ton, closed at 6805 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.38%), with a trading volume of 305,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 25,025 lots to 578,172 lots [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 6891 yuan/ton, closed at 6886 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.36%), with an open interest of 84,049 lots and an increase of 4,698 lots [5] - Plastic 2609: Opened at 6930 yuan/ton, closed at 6935 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.40%), with an open interest of 2,088 lots and an increase of 68 lots [5] - PP2601: Opened at 6490 yuan/ton, closed at 6471 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.57%), with an open interest of 652,784 lots and an increase of 8,183 lots [5] - PP2605: Opened at 6605 yuan/ton, closed at 6592 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.38%), with an open interest of 147,404 lots and an increase of 1,154 lots [5] - PP2609: Opened at 6624 yuan/ton, closed at 6622 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.45%), with an open interest of 7,179 lots and a decrease of 46 lots [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - LianSu L2601 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 6805 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.38%), with a trading volume of 305,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 25,025 lots to 578,172 lots. PP2601 closed at 6471 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.57%), with an open interest of 652,800 lots and an increase of 818,000 lots [6] - Futures remained weak, which was negative for market sentiment. Most trade offers fell, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, with only rigid demand purchases [6] - There are no new investment plans in November. Some maintenance devices will be restarted one after another, and the device operating load may continue to increase, and the pressure of new capacity expansion will intensify the imbalance between supply and demand [6] - The seasonal peak of agricultural film production has passed, and the demand for pipes has increased first and then decreased. The production of PP woven bags has been boosted by packaging demand, and BOPP enterprises are mainly digesting inventory. The downstream is dominated by fear of falling prices, and the willingness to stock up is low, which further drags down the transaction price [6] - In general, under the dual effects of weak cost support and continuous loose supply and demand, the downward pressure on polyolefin prices is expected to continue [6] Group 4: Industry News - On November 6, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 695,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (-2.11%) from the previous working day; the inventory at the same time last year was 720,000 tons [7] - The PE market price continued to be weak. The price of LLDPE in North China was 6,780 - 7,000 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,900 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,150 - 7,500 yuan/ton [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 5,650 - 5,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The downstream demand continued to be weak, and the willingness of production enterprises to sell at a discount was obvious. The decline of propylene price widened, and the downstream factories were more wait - and - see, and the overall market transaction was still average [7] - The PP market remained weak, and the prices of some grades dropped by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 6,220 - 6,450 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,330 - 6,550 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,390 - 6,550 yuan/ton [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Market Overview - As of November 6, the number of manganese silicon futures warehouse receipts recorded 12,758, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. However, there was a cumulative increase of 4,658 receipts over the past week, representing a growth rate of 57.51%. In contrast, there was a cumulative decrease of 42,103 receipts over the past month, indicating a decline of 76.74% [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the Yunnan production area, the official entry into the dry season has led to a significant increase in electricity costs from 0.37 yuan/kWh during the wet season to 0.5 yuan/kWh. Additionally, six silicon manganese thermal furnaces have been shut down for maintenance since October 31, while three furnaces are operating at reduced capacity, collectively affecting daily output by 880 tons [1]. - According to recent data, the latest bidding price for silicon manganese alloy from a steel mill in East China is 5,798 yuan/ton, including tax and discounts [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, despite a reduction in production in the main manganese silicon production areas last week, overall output remains relatively stable. The demand from sample steel mills is still at a relatively low level, with limited willingness to sell at low prices. The cost side remains firm, with a slight decrease in manganese ore shipments, and miners are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices. Inventory pressure is evident, with 63 sample enterprises accumulating stock exceeding 300,000 tons, reaching a peak not seen since April 2024. Overall, market sentiment has been somewhat boosted, but the fundamental driving force remains limited, necessitating ongoing attention to market sentiment changes, with expectations of a predominantly volatile market in the short term [3]. - Guoxin Futures notes that the manganese silicon industry chain is characterized by overall overcapacity and the introduction of new production capacity, alongside relatively loose manganese ore supply and low steel demand, leading to a predominantly weak supply-demand dynamic. However, with manganese silicon prices at low levels and production profits being poor, there is limited room for further market decline. The recent rise in coal prices suggests a potential for a moderate bullish outlook on manganese silicon [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight and the US dollar index is high, suppressing copper prices. After the interest rate cut and tariffs are implemented, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes are likely to be the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, while short - term rapid increases may suppress demand [2]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. Aluminum prices are expected to face a game between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the 21,500 yuan/ton pressure level can be effectively broken through. If inventory accumulates, there is a risk of price correction to the 20,500 - 20,800 yuan/ton range [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend under the dual effects of rigid cost support and a tight supply - demand balance. Key factors to monitor include scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction progress [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of concerns about a short squeeze in LME zinc, Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to be volatile and strong, but the fundamentals may limit the upward momentum. The key for upward breakthrough lies in better - than - expected demand and improved non - recessionary interest rate cut expectations, while downward breakthrough may occur if refined zinc inventory accumulates [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Market sentiment has improved, and the fundamentals are strong. Low - position long orders can be held, and a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted. The follow - up focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [8]. Nickel - The macro sentiment is weak, and the cost is still supported by firm ore prices. However, the overall fundamentals are dull, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro drivers are weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. Supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is insufficient. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, strong fundamentals provide support for prices. However, the trading logic has shifted, and the current news and capital drivers are stronger than the fundamentals and valuation logic. Prices are expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.77% to 85,995 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread and other indicators also showed certain changes [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, imports were 0.3343 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.28% to 21,360 yuan/ton. Alumina prices showed regional differences, with northern prices stabilizing and southern prices falling [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, alumina production was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,350 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference of some varieties changed [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.645 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots in September was 0.286 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,500 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss and other indicators changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, refined zinc production was 0.6172 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, imports were 0.0227 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.53% to 282,800 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 39.23% [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. SMM refined tin production in September was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.37% to 120,500 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss and other indicators changed [10]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in October was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Refined nickel imports were 38,164 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous value [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 12.64% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.8217 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The production in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 0.4235 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.12% to 80,400 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread and other indicators changed [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. Demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report about industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, and the strong US dollar index suppresses copper prices. The market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November, and subsequent attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and Sino - US tariff situation. - The shortage of copper ore supply remains unchanged. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall, there may be a phased reduction in smelting production. The psychological price ceiling of downstream users for copper is gradually rising. - In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. In the short - term, excessive price increases may inhibit demand. [2] Aluminum - The alumina market shows regional differentiation. The northern market shows signs of bottoming out, while the southern market continues to decline. The supply pressure has not been substantially relieved, and the demand side faces multiple pressures. - The recent rise in the aluminum price is mainly driven by events, with potential risks of short - term range corrections. Attention should be paid to the actual production progress of Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects, the supply recovery progress of Guinean bauxite, and the inventory depletion rhythm. [4] Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market followed the aluminum price to rise, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and the supply of scrap aluminum is short, leading to a contraction in industry supply. - The demand side shows a mild recovery, and the ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend under the dual effects of cost support and supply - demand balance. [5] Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, the Shanghai zinc price oscillated at a high level. The supply is generally loose, but the subsequent increase in supply may be limited, and attention should be paid to the inflection point signal of supply changing from loose to tight. - The demand side has no unexpected performance. The low overseas inventory supports the zinc price, and the domestic zinc supply is relatively loose. The zinc price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term and may maintain a range - bound trend. [7] Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply is limited this year. The demand side is still weak, and although some consumption is driven by AI and the photovoltaic industry, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. - The market sentiment has improved, and the long - term low - position orders can be held. The follow - up should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [8] Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated and repaired slightly. The macro - market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia. - The refined nickel production is still at a high level, with new projects put into production and some projects planning to reduce production. The nickel ore supply in the Philippines is affected by the rainy season, while that in Indonesia is relatively loose. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the overall fundamentals are flat, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range. [10] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly, with weak market information. The macro - driving force is weakened, and the nickel ore supply in the Philippines is reduced, while that in Indonesia is relatively loose. - The ferronickel price is under pressure, and the chromium - iron market is weakly stable. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile. [12] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market was generally strong. The production increased slightly last week, mainly driven by lithium - spodumene and mica. The downstream demand is more optimistic than expected, but the news - side uncertainty and capital impact may put pressure on the price. - The price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 660 yuan/ton to 85,995 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.77%. - The import profit and loss improved by 21.88 yuan/ton to - 500 yuan/ton. [2] Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, the import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50%. - The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory decreased by 5.2 million tons to 62.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.67%. [2] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 21,360 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.28%. - The import profit and loss improved by 98.7 yuan/ton to - 2349 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%. - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 62.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. [4] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,350 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 1729 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10%. [5] Fundamental Data - In October, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 64.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. In September, the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 28.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%. - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.1 million tons to 5.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.82%. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,500 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 525.27 yuan/ton to - 4212 yuan/ton. [7] Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, the import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61%. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons to 15.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.73%. [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1500 yuan/ton to 282,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.53%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 25.5 dollars/ton to 39.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 39.23%. [8] Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import was 8714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71%. - The SHEF inventory increased by 153 tons to 5919 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.65%. [8] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. - The futures import profit and loss decreased by 374 yuan/ton to - 1701 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.18%. [10] Supply and Inventory - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The import volume was 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36%. - The SHFE inventory increased by 676 tons to 36,751 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.87%. [10] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton. - The spot - futures price difference decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.64%. [12] Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 enterprises) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.32 million tons to 48.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%. [12] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 80,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%. - The SMM electric - carbon - industrial - carbon price difference remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton. [14] Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. The demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70%. - The total lithium carbonate inventory in October was 84,234 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.90%. [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.40%. Currently, rebar supply has declined, but demand has also decreased. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions remain unresolved, inventory reduction is limited, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate and find the bottom. Pay attention to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.22%. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil has declined from a high level, but demand is also poor. In the situation of weak supply and demand, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, and hot - rolled coil prices continue to be under pressure. Given the cost support, the subsequent trend will show a pattern of fluctuating and finding the bottom, and the trend will be weaker than that of building materials. Breaking the deadlock depends on steel mills increasing production cuts [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated and stabilized, with a daily increase of 0.65%. Currently, iron ore supply remains high, while demand continues to decline. In the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, industrial contradictions in the ore industry lead to accelerated inventory accumulation, and ore prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is the short - term market recovery. The subsequent trend will continue to be weakly fluctuating. Pay attention to the performance of steel products [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In October 2025, the average monthly working hours of major construction machinery products in China was 80.9 hours, a year - on - year decrease of 9.03% and a month - on - month increase of 3.62%. The monthly average working hours of excavators was 68.6 hours. The monthly start - up rate of major construction machinery products was 55%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The start - up rate of excavators was 55.1% [7]. - In October 2025, the total bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 76.9%. Affected by the low base in the same period last year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises increased significantly. From the perspective of financing structure, the credit bond financing of the real estate industry was 32.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 50.7%, accounting for 63.8%; overseas bond financing was 2.85 billion yuan, accounting for 5.6%; ABS financing was 15.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 115.8%, accounting for 30.6%. The average bond financing interest rate was 2.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points. In the first 10 months of this year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises was 488.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.6% [8]. - In the third quarter of 2025, the iron ore production of Canadian mining company IOC was 4.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The year - on - year significant increase was mainly due to the impact of a 11 - day shutdown after forest fires in the third quarter of 2024. The salable iron ore production (concentrate + pellets) was 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% and a month - on - month decrease of 6% [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,160 yuan, 3,190 yuan, and 3,220 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270 yuan, 3,190 yuan, and 3,318 yuan respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,170 yuan; the coil - rebar price difference was 110 yuan; the rebar - scrap price difference was 990 yuan [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 785 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 803 yuan; the sea freight from Australia was 9.63 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.15 yuan; the SGX swap (current month) was 104.33 yuan; the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.90 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,037 | 0.40 | 3,042 | 3,017 | 884,740 | - 264,825 | 2,020,353 | - 11,428 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,256 | 0.22 | 3,271 | 3,241 | 462,037 | 14,203 | 1,365,348 | - 7,743 | | Iron Ore | - | 777.5 | 0.65 | 779.5 | 771.0 | 259,605 | - 22,010 | 537,495 | - 7,164 | [14] 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17][23]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, including inventory changes, seasonal inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel mills [22][25]. - **Steel Mill Production Situation**: There are charts showing the blast furnace start - up rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace start - up rate, profitability of steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [31][32][35]. 3.5后市研判（Translated as Future Market Judgment） - **Rebar**: Both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 40,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk again but is still at a relatively high level this year, with high inventory levels and supply pressure not relieved. At the same time, rebar demand has weakened as expected, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 136,600 tons month - on - month. Speculative demand is weak due to weak steel prices. Both are at low levels in recent years, and downstream conditions have not improved. As the off - season approaches, demand is likely to continue to weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate and find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand are weakening. Affected by production restrictions, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 54,000 tons month - on - month, with a limited decline, and it is still at a relatively high level this year. High inventory levels and unrelieved supply pressure continue to suppress hot - rolled coil prices. At the same time, hot - rolled coil demand has begun to weaken, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 175,900 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency transactions remaining sluggish. The production of the main downstream cold - rolled products has continued to decline, and industrial contradictions have not been alleviated, continuing to drag down hot - rolled coils. In addition, the improvement in external demand is limited, and the resilience of hot - rolled coil demand is weakening. It is expected that the subsequent trend will show a pattern of fluctuating and finding the bottom, and the trend will be weaker than that of building materials. Breaking the deadlock depends on steel mills increasing production cuts [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Affected by production restrictions, the terminal demand for ore has continued to decline. Last week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased month - on - month, and the decline continued to expand, indicating an obvious trend of weakening demand. Considering that the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated, coupled with frequent seasonal production - restriction disturbances, ore demand is expected to continue to decline, and weak demand is likely to drag down ore prices. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has rebounded as expected, while the shipments of overseas miners have declined. Both are at relatively high levels, and domestic ore supply has increased, increasing the supply pressure of ore. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to be weakly fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View The supply of coke remains stable at a high level, demand continues to weaken, and the supply-demand pattern is weak, suppressing coke prices. However, the cost support for coke is strong, and the "weak reality" and "high cost" continue to compete. It is expected that coke prices will continue to fluctuate within a range [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Performance - Since mid - October, coke futures and spot prices have risen synchronously. The futures main contract reached a maximum of 1,818.5 yuan/ton, approaching the annual high. Recently, due to weaker market sentiment, the futures price has declined but remains at a relatively high level. The spot price is also strong, with the third round of price increases by coke enterprises implemented, and the cumulative increase in port spot ex - warehouse prices reaching 150 yuan/ton [2] Supply Situation - Coke supply is stable at a high level. As of the week ending October 31, the daily average coke output of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 64.59 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 73.44%, down 2.17 tons and 2.48 percentage points respectively compared to mid - September. The daily average coke output of 247 steel mills was 46.21 tons, rising for two consecutive weeks. The combined daily average output of steel mills and coking plants was 110.80 tons, down 2.27% from the previous high. However, due to poor profitability of coke enterprises and production restrictions in some areas, short - term supply is difficult to increase significantly [3] Demand Situation - Coke demand continues to weaken. Although steel demand has rebounded during the peak season, it has not alleviated the contradictions in the steel industry. With production restrictions, steel mills have increased production cuts, and the demand for raw materials such as coke has continued to decline. As of the week ending October 31, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 236.36 tons, declining for five consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills was 45.02%, declining for 12 consecutive weeks with a cumulative decline of 23.38 percentage points [4] Cost Support - Rising coal prices have continuously increased the production cost of coke, providing strong support for its price. As of the week ending October 31, the approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.78%, and the daily average raw coal output was 190.33 tons, down 1.72 percentage points and 3.80 tons respectively compared to the end of September. Low supply has led to continuous depletion of coking coal inventory, and the current raw coal and clean coal inventories have reached new lows. The low - supply state of domestic coking coal is expected to continue, and with low inventory, coking coal prices are relatively firm [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [7] Core View of the Report - As the off - season begins, the expectation of weakening steel demand remains unchanged, and the inventory depletion is expected to slow down, putting pressure on steel prices. With the weakening of environmental protection restrictions, the weekly hot metal output is expected to stop falling and rise, supporting the demand for furnace materials. The coal mine production remains restricted this week, and the coal mine inventory continues to decline at a low level. The coking coal fundamentals are still supported, corresponding to the price stop - falling and rising since yesterday. The strong furnace material prices further support the steel cost. With no new changes in macro and policies, the prices of short - term sector varieties will maintain an oscillatory operation [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of Iron, Carbon, and Alloy Elements - **Iron Element**: This week, hot metal output shows signs of stopping decline, but considering the seasonal maintenance of steel enterprises in the traditional off - season, the overall downward trend of hot metal remains unchanged, corresponding to the marginal weakening of iron ore fundamentals. However, there are still disturbances from internal and external macro and policy expectations, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. The short - term finished product prices are under pressure, and scrap steel prices are expected to follow the finished products [3]. - **Carbon Element**: After three rounds of coke price increases, the profit pressure on steel mills is relatively large, so the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is currently small. Given the strong cost support for coke and the continued procurement demand from steel mills, the coke price is expected to oscillate. This week, both domestic coking coal supply and upstream inventory have decreased, and the coking coal fundamentals remain relatively healthy. It is expected that coking coal supply will still be difficult to improve in the future. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, coal mine inventory has dropped to a low level in recent years, and the short - term fundamentals remain healthy. The coking coal price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Alloy**: In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand continues to have a pessimistic expectation, and there is insufficient driving force for the price increase of ferromanganese - silicon. The strong short - term cost trend supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, suppressing the upward price space [3]. 2. Glass and Soda Ash - Supply disturbance expectations have fermented again, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. However, the inventory of middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If the production and sales continue to be weak, the price will return to an oscillatory and weak state. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the market refocuses on fundamentals, the price may continue to oscillate downward. Recently, downstream enterprises have started to replenish inventory as they think the price is appropriate. After the inventory of soda ash plants is depleted, the price has slightly increased, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [4][7]. 3. Specific Analysis of Each Variety - **Steel**: The spot market transactions are generally weak, mainly at low prices. Recently, the profit of steel mills has marginally improved, but affected by environmental protection restrictions and seasonal maintenance of steel mills, hot metal output has declined from a high level, and steel production shows a downward trend. As the peak season is coming to an end, the demand side faces the pressure of falling from a high level. Steel inventory continues to be depleted, but the depletion speed has slowed down, and the inventory level remains higher than the same period last year. The short - term macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure for adjustment, but the cost side still has support, and the downward space of the futures market is limited [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The port transactions have decreased, and the spot market transactions have weakened. From a fundamental perspective, the overseas mine shipping end is relatively stable, and the arrival volume has fluctuated greatly in the past month, but the average arrival volume basically meets expectations. The demand side has a slight increase in the daily consumption of sintered powder ore, and there is an expectation of a month - on - month increase in hot metal, but the profitability rate of steel mills continues to weaken, and the peak season is gradually ending, which may limit the recovery space of hot metal. In terms of inventory, under sintering restrictions, the inventory of sintered powder ore has increased month - on - month, and the production and inventory of sintered ore have slightly decreased. The market sentiment is weak, but the price still has support when the demand does not weaken significantly [9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume of scrap steel has increased slightly this week, approaching the level of the same period last year. The demand has also increased, with an increase in the daily consumption of electric furnaces in various regions. The overall daily consumption of scrap steel in 255 steel mills has decreased. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term finished product prices are under pressure. Scrap steel prices are expected to follow the finished products [11]. - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the spot price in Rizhao Port remains unchanged. After three rounds of price increases, the supply of coke is difficult to increase due to environmental protection and maintenance. The demand side is affected by environmental protection in Tangshan, and hot metal has declined significantly in the short - term. If the environmental protection inspection intensity weakens in the future, hot metal may still have a slight upward trend. The overall supply - demand of coke is relatively healthy, and the fundamentals have no major contradictions. After three rounds of price increases, the profit pressure on steel mills is large, so the expectation of a fourth - round price increase is small. Given the strong cost support and the continued procurement demand from steel mills, the coke price is expected to oscillate [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures market oscillates, and the spot price has increased. The supply of domestic coking coal and upstream inventory have both decreased this week. The import volume at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, but high - quality resources at the port are still in short supply. The downstream coking enterprises still have the enthusiasm to replenish inventory, and the coal mine inventory has dropped to a low level in recent years. The short - term fundamentals remain healthy, and the coking coal price is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Glass**: The supply disturbance expectation has fermented again, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. However, the inventory of middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If the production and sales continue to be weak, the price will return to an oscillatory and weak state. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The downstream has started to replenish inventory at low prices, and the spot price has slightly increased. The supply side has a daily output of 104,000 tons, and some manufacturers are under maintenance, with the output remaining unchanged month - on - month. The demand side has a stable and good demand for heavy soda ash, and the downstream procurement of light soda ash has recovered to some extent. The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline [15][17]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The futures market price has slightly increased, and the cost support and supply - demand pressure are in a stalemate. The spot market is waiting for the performance of the new round of steel tenders, and the manufacturers' shipment situation is average, with the downstream's price - cutting sentiment remaining. The short - term cost is firm, supporting the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand continues to have a pessimistic expectation, and there is insufficient driving force for the price increase [17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures market price is strongly oscillating, and the settlement electricity price increase strengthens the cost support, but the loose supply - demand suppresses the increase in the futures market. The spot market remains stable, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices due to cost pressure. The short - term cost trend is strong, supporting the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and there is insufficient driving force for the price to rise [18].