地缘冲突余波未平！黄金多头还有机会吗？订单流给出什么进场信号？阿汤哥正在实时分析，点击观看 订阅期货大宗商品趋势 +订阅 相关链接 实时黄金订单流分析 ...

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, with coking coal futures experiencing fluctuations and a current increase of approximately 1.25% [1] - Coking coal production is declining due to safety inspections and environmental checks, leading to a slight increase in spot auction prices and a decrease in terminal inventory [1] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements remains ample, and despite the seasonal downturn in downstream iron and steel production, there is a certain level of optimism in the market [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures indicates that the supply-demand imbalance for coking coal is easing, and geopolitical conflicts are providing support for energy commodities, suggesting potential for further upward movement in the short term [2] - However, downstream enterprises lack confidence in future demand, and the current rebound has not significantly improved spot market sentiment, with ongoing pressure from high upstream inventory levels [2] - Zhonghui Futures notes that while domestic coking coal prices have slightly rebounded, the overall supply-demand situation remains loose, and geopolitical disturbances may lead to short-term price fluctuations, but mid-term trends are expected to remain within a range [2]

II GERIK 航运衍生品数据日报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | 卢钊毅 | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | | 2025/6/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | | | | | | | (== | 现值 | 1870 | 1342 | 2772 | 2908 | 5352 | 1832 | | Alle | 前值 | 2088 | 1243 | 4120 | 2185 | 6745 | 1844 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -10.47% | 8.00% | -32.72% | 33.08% | -20.65% | -0.49% | | ​​​ | | S ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 LPG：地缘冲突加剧供应担忧，盘面风险攀升 | | 陈鑫超 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 | | chenxinchao@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | LPG 基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | PG2507 | 4,550 | 0.18% | 4,538 | -0.26% | | | PG2508 | 4,540 | 0.60% | 4,522 | -0.40% | | 期货 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2507 | 98,652 | 11037 | 29,448 | -5242 | | | PG2508 | 83,832 | 20596 | 73,624 | 12941 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价差 | 广州国产气对07合约价差 | 150 | | 158 | | | 广州进口气对07 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Cost continues to support the rise in PX valuation. The unilateral trend is expected to be strong, and the positive spread of the monthly difference should be held. PXN is strengthening [3]. - **PTA**: The unilateral price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take profit on the positive spread of the monthly difference at high levels. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [3]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is strong, but the upside space may be limited. Hedge by going long on PX and short on MEG [4]. 3. Summary by Sections **Fundamental Tracking** - **Daily Price Changes**: On June 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, and MEG decreased by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.8% respectively, while PF increased by 0.4%, and SC decreased by 0.8% [1]. - **Monthly Difference Changes**: The daily changes in the monthly differences of PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), and MEG (9 - 1) on June 20 were -40, -26, and -9 respectively, while PF(7 - 8) increased by 28, and PX - EB07 increased by 11 [1]. - **Inter - Variety Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the spreads of PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, etc. on June 20 showed various trends, such as an increase of 2 in PTA09 - 0.65PX09 and an increase of 28 in PTA09 - MEG09 [1]. - **Basis and Inventory Changes**: The PX basis increased by 18 on June 20, while the PTA basis decreased by 60. The PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 43,123, and the PX warehouse receipts decreased by 5 [1]. **Market Overview** - **Geopolitical Factor**: The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the highest security agency needs to make the final decision [3]. **Market Views** - **PX**: The core driver of the current market remains on the cost side. Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, multiple PX plants have shut down for maintenance, tightening the supply in the Middle - East and potentially affecting China's PX imports. Domestic PX operating rates are expected to decline further [3]. - **PTA**: It is still a cost - driven market. The risk of the war between the US and Iran escalating may lead to a rise in crude oil prices, providing strong cost support for PTA. Fundamentally, PTA has entered a pattern of inventory accumulation [4]. - **MEG**: The domestic supply has room for growth. Although the profit margins of some devices have been compressed, the overall load has increased to 70%. Overseas, multiple Iranian plants have shut down, with the impact on China's imports expected to be reflected in the far - month contracts [4]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [5].

黄金、原油开盘拉涨 受上周末中东局势升级影响，现货黄金周一高开，最高至3398美元/盎司；WTI原油高开3.7%。布伦特原油期货开盘上涨5.7%，至81.4美元/桶。截至发 稿，黄金、原油价格均有所回落。 此外，中东地区天然气供应也会受到干扰，并与其他能化品种产生共振效应。据了解，以色列6月15日对伊朗南帕尔斯气田的空袭已导致该地区日产气量 下降，随着冲突进一步扩大，欧洲TTF天然气基准价格和亚洲LNG现货价格可能被进一步推高。"油气价格具有强相关性，天然气供应紧张不仅会强化原 油市场的看涨情绪，还将增加中东甲醇和尿素的生产成本，导致相关生产装置运行不稳。"苗扬称。 "美伊正面冲突已成现实，中东冲突呈现加速扩大化趋势。"广发期货分析师苗扬认为，美国从幕后支援转向直接打击伊朗战略核资产，标志冲突性质转变 为地区大国与世界强权间的军事对抗。 "美军直接介入伊朗核设施打击，符合此前机构推演。"海通期货能化负责人杨安表示，当前冲突暂限于核设施层面，但美国入局已为油价注入5～10 美元/ 桶的地缘溢价。"风险度提升是确定的，虽暂未失控，但市场情绪可能引发剧烈波动。" 在紫金天风期货分析师汤剑林看来，伊朗作为能源输出国， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts intensify supply concerns, and market volatility risks are rising. From June 14th to 20th, supported by the increase in crude oil prices and the expected decline in supply, the international liquefied gas market rose strongly across the board. In China, the price of civil gas first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, the market was supported by news, but the demand was weak, and the upstream faced pressure in sales and prices declined. The price of etherified C4 continued to rise during the week due to the increase in the operating rate of downstream MTBE. As of June 20th, the market price of etherified C4 in Shandong was 5,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton from last Friday. In terms of supply, the domestic liquefied gas production decreased slightly, and the increase in propane arrivals was less than expected due to typhoon weather. In terms of demand, the chemical demand recovered significantly. The operating rate of propane dehydrogenation units increased by 1.90% to 66.20% week-on-week, and the MTBE operating rate increased by 4.01% to 63.71% week-on-week. Next week, Wanda Tianhong's PDH plans to conduct maintenance and stop production, but the previously opened manufacturers will gradually increase their loads. Therefore, it is expected that China's PDH operating rate will increase slightly next week. In summary, this week's PG changes were mainly dominated by the expected decline in market supply caused by geopolitics. Fundamentally, the civil demand remained seasonally weak, and the overall chemical end's operation continued to recover. It is expected to have a certain boost in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent geopolitical developments, PDH unit operations, and import arrivals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price & Spread - The document presents various price and spread data of LPG and related propane contracts, including the main LPG contract, APS propane main contract, AFE propane main contract, their forward curves, and the spreads between different contract months of LPG and propane. It also shows the domestic spot prices and basis of different regions, such as East China, South China, and Shandong, for imported gas, civil gas, and etherified C4, as well as historical data on regional price premiums, discounts, and freight rates [7][9][13]. 3.2 Supply - **US Exports**: The document shows the historical data of US propane exports to different regions, including Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea, from 2019 to 2025 [30][32]. - **Middle East Exports**: It presents the historical data of LPG exports from the Middle East and major countries such as Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar from 2019 to 2025 [35][39]. - **Imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea**: The historical data of LPG imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea from 2019 to 2025 are provided [42]. - **Domestic Supply in China**: The domestic liquefied gas production was 528,000 tons (-0.30%), and civil gas was 224,900 tons (-1.75%). The domestic propane supply was 374,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.82%. Domestically, the total commercial volume of refineries was 40,900 tons, an increase of 1.74% from last week. The international ship arrivals were 333,300 tons, mainly in East China. Due to typhoon weather, the actual arrivals this week were far lower than expected [44][48]. 3.3 Demand - Chemical demand showed significant recovery. The operating rate of propane dehydrogenation units increased by 1.90% to 66.20% week-on-week, and the MTBE operating rate increased by 4.01% to 63.71% week-on-week. The document also presents historical data on the operating rates and profits of alkylation, MTBE, and PDH [52][53].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 日期：2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | 进出口 | | | 炼厂开工 | 国内外燃料油需求数据 | 全球燃料油现货库存 | 亚太区域现货FOB价格 | 国内燃料油进出口数据 | | | 全球炼厂检修 | | | 欧洲区域现货FOB价格 | 全球高硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | 国内炼厂产量与商品量 | | | 美国地区燃料油现货价格 | 全球低硫燃料油进出口数据 | | | | | | 纸货与衍生品价格 燃料油现货价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油裂解价差 | | | | | | | 全球燃料油纸货月差 | | Special report on Guot ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 地缘冲突的涟漪 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ► 行情回顾：地缘冲突的涟漪 6 月 9-13 日，权益市场高位回落。截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日， 万得全 A 收盘价为 5087.26，较 6 月 13 日下跌 1.07%。 小微盘行情显著承压，是本周市场较为关键的边际变化，这 或是在主动调和积累已久的结构性矛盾。5 月底中证 2000 拥 挤度达到历史高位，这对小微盘行情的支撑逻辑提出了更高 的要求。而地缘冲突的加剧则给了市场主动释放风险的窗 口，中证 2000 加速下跌。 ► 海外线索：以伊冲突延续，美联储继续暂停降息 本周以伊冲突延续，未见缓和迹象。同时，美联储继续暂停 降息，表态略偏鹰，预测偏向"滞胀"，推动美元走强。此 外，美国核心零售韧性仍存，汽车零售大幅放缓。日本方 面，日本央行维持利率不变，明年起削减购债规模。 整体来看，海外"乱纪元"的叙事并未改变，继关税之后， 中东地缘冲突爆发，美国搅入其中，进一步推升不确定性。 此外，距离 ...

甲醇周报 | 2025-06-22 港口供应方面：海外甲醇开工率52.07%（+0.00%）；中国进口甲醇周频到港量25.70万吨（-20.33），其中华东到港 量24.11万吨（-13.82），华南到港量1.59万吨（-6.51）。 内地供应方面：中国甲醇开工率88.65%（+0.67%），其中煤制甲醇开工率83.90%（+3.01%）、天然气甲醇开工率48.36% （-0.52%）、焦炉气甲醇开工率60.28%（+0.17%）；西北开工率92.49%（+2.04%），华北开工率68.71%（-5.33%）， 华中开工率94.27%（-0.09%），华东开工率80.03%（-3.69%），西南开工率87.29%（+5.30%）。 港口需求方面：太仓周均提货量1521吨/天（-864），华东MTO企业周度采购量187300吨（-153800），外采甲醇MTO 企业开工率80.46%（-5.39%）。 内地需求方面：甲醇企业待发订单量274780吨（-27310）。传统下游样本企业原料采购量30300吨（-2500），甲醛开 工率51.23%（-1.02%）、醋酸开工率88.33%（-3.27%）、MTBE外销 ...