Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - For Shanghai Nickel 2512, it is expected to operate in a volatile and weak manner, testing cost support [2] - For Stainless Steel 2512, it is expected to operate in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Nickel - **Fundamentals**: The external market continues to decline. Nickel ore prices are firm, the Philippine rainy season is approaching, tender prices are firm, and shipping costs are stable. Nickel iron prices continue to fall, and the cost line loosens and moves down. Stainless steel inventories rise slightly. Primary nickel accumulates inventory both at home and abroad. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the overall boost is limited. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2] - **Basis**: The spot price is 120,950, and the basis is 920, indicating a bullish signal [2] - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 253,128 (+378), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 32,929 (+1,977), indicating a bearish signal [2] - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [2] Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless steel price remains flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, shipping costs are stable, nickel iron prices fall, the cost line loosens further, and stainless steel inventories rise slightly [4] - **Basis**: The average stainless steel price is 13,700, and the basis is 1,165, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 73,300 (unchanged), indicating a neutral signal [4] - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [4] Price and Inventory Data - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Prices**: On November 5, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,030 (up 330 from the previous day), the LME nickel was 15,015 (down 45), the stainless steel main contract was 12,535 (down 10). Spot prices of various nickel products and stainless steel cold - rolled coils mostly declined [11] - **Nickel Inventory**: As of October 31, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 36,751 tons, with futures inventory at 31,388 tons, an increase of 676 tons and 4,578 tons respectively. On November 5, LME inventory was 253,128 (up 378), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 32,929 (up 1,977) [13][14] - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On October 31, the Wuxi inventory was 598,700 tons, the Foshan inventory was 306,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,031,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,700 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 651,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons. On November 5, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 73,300 (unchanged) [19][20] Cost - related Data - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices**: On November 5, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58 US dollars/wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 30 US dollars/wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. Shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained stable. High - nickel wet - ton prices were 920 yuan/nickel point (down 2), and low - nickel wet - ton prices were 3,050 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional cost was 12,765, the scrap steel production cost was 12,893, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 16,538 [25] - **Nickel Import Cost**: The converted import price was 120,425 yuan/ton [28] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The firm ore price provides cost support [6] - **Negative Factors**: Domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, and the strong US dollar index suppresses copper prices. After the reduction of interest rates and tariffs, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes may be the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and Sino - US tariff situation. - The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the spot TC of copper ore stays at a low level. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall, there may be a phased reduction in smelting production. The downstream's psychological price ceiling for copper prices gradually moves up. The downstream demand for copper is resilient, and there are still many purchase orders after price declines. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is not substantially relieved, the demand is weak, and the cost support is gradually shifting down. Pay attention to the supply recovery progress of Guinea's bauxite, the impact of domestic environmental policies on production, and the inventory depletion rhythm. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak reality in the short - term. The 21500 yuan/ton pressure level is crucial. If the inventory continues to accumulate, there is a risk of price correction to the 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton range [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market followed the aluminum price to rise and then fall. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the demand shows a mild recovery. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the supply of scrap aluminum, procurement costs, and inventory depletion [4]. Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level. The supply of zinc is generally loose, but the subsequent production increase may be limited. The demand has no extraordinary performance, and the LME's low inventory causes squeezing risks, which support zinc prices. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and relatively strong in the short - term, with the main reference range of 22300 - 23000 [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement of supply within the year is limited. The demand is weak, and the contribution of new fields such as AI and photovoltaics is small. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Pay attention to macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a weak and volatile state. The macro - sentiment is weak, and the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is affected by the rainy season and typhoons, while that from Indonesia is relatively loose. The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the demand for ternary materials has limited sustainability. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 118000 - 124000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is running weakly. The supply pressure still exists, the demand is not significantly boosted, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. The short - term market is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main operating range of 12500 - 13000. Pay attention to macro - expectations and steel supply [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is weakly volatile. Although the short - term fundamentals are strong, the trading logic has switched, and the news and capital drives are stronger. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main reference range of 78000 - 82000 yuan [15]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 1.45% to 85335 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton. The premiums of other copper types also changed to varying degrees. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 3.20%, and the import profit and loss improved by 163.21 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 50 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.94 million tons (-2.62%), and in September, the import volume increased by 7 million tons (26.50%). The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports decreased by 7.67%, and the social inventory increased by 8.46% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.65% to 21300 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of different regions of alumina showed different trends, with some remaining stable and some decreasing. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 170 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the alumina production increased by 2.39%, the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%, and in September, the import volume increased by 13.57%. The开工 rates of various aluminum products decreased to varying degrees, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and its regional varieties decreased, with the decline ranging from 0.23% to 0.47%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions decreased. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 35 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06%. The开工 rates of recycled aluminum alloy decreased, while that of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.35% to 22500 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 21.34 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the refined zinc production increased by 2.85%, and in September, the import volume decreased by 11.61%, while the export volume increased by 696.78%. The开工 rates of galvanizing and zinc oxide increased slightly, while that of die - casting zinc alloy decreased slightly. The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased by 1.10% [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.44% to 281300 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 12.16%. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased by 0.34%, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 280 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 230 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the refined tin production decreased by 31.71%. The SHEF inventory increased by 2.65%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.11% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.70% to 120950 yuan/ton, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 200 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved by 6.68%. - **Electrolytic Nickel Cost**: The costs of different production methods of electrolytic nickel decreased to varying degrees. - **New Energy Material Prices**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly, while the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.32%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 50 yuan/ton. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In October, China's refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, and the import volume increased by 124.36%. The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.48% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends, with the Foshan price decreasing by 0.78%. The futures - spot price difference increased by 2.35%. - **Raw Material Price**: The prices of most raw materials remained stable, with the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreasing by 0.22%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2601 - 2602 increased by 5 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The import volume increased by 2.70%, and the export volume decreased by 6.55%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 0.55% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the prices of CIF battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea also decreased. The lithium - spodumene concentrate price decreased by 1.18%. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 180 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2511 - 2601 increased by 260 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73%, the demand increased by 8.70%, and the total inventory decreased by 10.90%. The capacity increased by 0.80%, and the开工 rate increased by 1.82% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports 2. Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil futures may weaken to 4000 ringgit due to potential negative impacts from MPOA production growth and a significant decline in exports in the first five days of November. After the release of the MPOB supply report, it may gradually stop falling and start to recover. In China, it may test the 8500 yuan support level. - CBOT soybean oil has limited upside and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, demand is weak, and the basis quote has limited fluctuation space [1]. Sugar Industry - The expected increase in the supply surplus, combined with weakening energy prices and favorable weather in major producing areas, has led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. Chinese sugar prices are also under pressure but are relatively resistant to decline. The spot market remains tepid, and prices will generally fluctuate at a low level [4]. Corn Industry - In the short - term, corn prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The supply in the Northeast is sufficient, and farmers are reluctant to sell. In the long - term, imports remain low, demand is resilient, and policy regulation will support prices [5]. Cotton Industry - The cost of new cotton provides strong support for cotton prices, but there is also hedging pressure. Downstream demand is weak, but finished - product inventory pressure is not large. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [8]. Egg Industry - In the short - term, the egg market has a supply - demand imbalance, and prices may be in a state of being difficult to rise or fall. With the slow recovery of demand, prices may gradually start to rise, and are expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [10]. Meal Industry - The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China is at a high level, but the cost - side support is strengthening. The downside space is limited, and the support for soybean meal is expected to increase [12]. Pig Industry - The pig market supply is relatively loose, and pig prices have weakened. However, the slowdown in the planned November slaughter volume may boost prices. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 inverse spread and operate with caution [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On November 5, the price of Jiangsu Grade - 1 soybean oil was 8420 yuan, down 0.48% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8108 yuan, up 0.37%. The basis was 312 yuan, down 22.44% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8616 yuan on November 5, down 0.30%. The futures price of P2601 was 8590 yuan, down 0.23%. The basis was - 46 yuan, up 13.04% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of Jiangsu Grade - 3 rapeseed oil was 9750 yuan on November 5, down 0.20%. The futures price of OI601 was 9407 yuan, down 0.38%. The basis was 343 yuan, up 4.89% [1]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil was 188 yuan, up 10.59%; that of palm oil was - 106 yuan, down 32.50%; and that of rapeseed oil was 345 yuan, down 4.96% [1]. Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of sugar 2601 was 5441 yuan/ton, down 0.73%; sugar 2605 was 5393 yuan/ton, down 0.70%; ICE raw sugar was 14.12 cents/pound, down 0.63% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5700 yuan, down 0.18%; in Kunming was 5660 yuan, down 0.35%. The Nanning basis was 307 yuan, up 10.04%; the Kunming basis was 267 yuan, up 7.23% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%; sales were 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17%. The national industrial inventory was 68.21 million tons, down 41.20% [4]. Corn Industry - **Corn**: On November 5, the price of corn 2601 was 2134 yuan, down 0.05%. The basis was 16 yuan, up 6.67%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 101 yuan, down 4.12% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2451 yuan, up 0.29%. The basis was 59 yuan, down 10.61%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 104 yuan, unchanged [5]. Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of cotton 2605 was 13620 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; cotton 2601 was 13612 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The ICE US cotton was 65.07 cents/pound, down 0.12% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14627 yuan, down 0.09%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14825 yuan, down 0.11% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, up 68.4%; the industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 4.3%. The import volume was 10.00 million tons, up 42.9% [8]. Egg Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of the egg 12 - contract was 3217 yuan/500KG, up 2.32%; the 01 - contract was 3385 yuan/500KG, up 1.44% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price was 2.88 yuan/jin, up 0.22%. The basis was - 333 yuan/500KG, down 25.10% [10]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.80 yuan/feather, up 5.66%; the price of culled chickens was 4.11 yuan/jin, down 4.20% [10]. Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: On November 5, the price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 3030 yuan, down 0.66%. The futures price of M2601 was 3073 yuan, up 1.92%. The basis was - 43 yuan, down 222.86% [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2550 yuan, up 0.79%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2537 yuan, up 1.60%. The basis was 13 yuan, down 60.61% [12]. - **Soybeans**: The price of Harbin soybeans was 3920 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the soybean - 1 main contract was 4123 yuan, up 1.68%. The basis was - 203 yuan, down 50.37% [12]. Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: On November 5, the price of the pig 2605 contract was 12040 yuan/ton, up 1.52%; the 2601 contract was 11945 yuan/ton, up 2.23%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 95 yuan, up 45.71% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 11800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in Shandong was 12100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Sichuan was 11400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 159258, up 0.79%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.70 yuan/kg, up 1.25% [15].

Core Insights - Since mid-October, both coking coal futures and spot prices have risen, with futures reaching a peak of 1818.5 yuan/ton, approaching the year's high. However, recent market sentiment has weakened, leading to a price pullback while remaining at relatively high levels [1] - Coking coal supply remains stable at high levels, with average daily production at 645,900 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 73.44%. Despite a slight decrease in production, the overall supply remains robust due to downstream steel mills' restocking and decent shipment conditions from coking enterprises [2] - Coking coal demand continues to weaken, with average daily pig iron production dropping to 2,363,600 tons, marking a five-week decline. The profitability of steel mills has deteriorated, with only 45.02% of mills reporting profits, a drop of 23.38 percentage points over 12 weeks [3] Supply Dynamics - Coking coal supply is stabilizing at high levels, with production costs rising due to increasing coking coal prices. Despite price hikes by coking enterprises, profitability remains poor, with 64% of coking enterprises reporting losses [2][5] - The average daily production of coking coal is 1,903,300 tons, with a utilization rate of 84.78%. The low supply has led to a decrease in coal inventories, with raw coal inventory at 4,316,100 tons, down 122,600 tons from the previous month [5][8] Demand Trends - The demand for coking coal is declining, exacerbated by production cuts in steel mills. The overall steel industry remains under pressure, with high inventory levels and significant de-stocking pressure [3] - Despite a seasonal uptick in steel demand, it has not alleviated the underlying issues within the steel industry, leading to a continued decline in coking coal demand [3] Price Outlook - The coking coal market is characterized by a weak supply-demand balance, which is expected to exert downward pressure on coking coal prices. However, strong cost support from rising production costs may lead to a range-bound price movement [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Red stars represent a predicted trending upward, green stars represent a predicted trending downward. One star means a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease but limited trading opportunities on the market. Two stars indicate a clear long/short position with an ongoing market trend. Three stars signify a more distinct long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities at present. White stars suggest a short - term equilibrium in the long/short trend and poor market operability, advising to wait and see [9] - For example, propylene, plastic, PTA, methanol, PVC, and soda ash are rated ★☆☆; polypropylene, benzene - ethylene, short - fiber, bottle - chip, urea, and caustic soda are rated ★★★; glass is rated ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - The overall situation in the chemical industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and changing market expectations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures' main contract declined. Shandong PDH plant shutdowns had limited support for supply. Supply was overall abundant, production enterprises' sales weakened, and downstream demand decreased [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts also declined. For polyethylene, cost support weakened, supply was stable, and downstream demand was average. For polypropylene, production enterprises cut prices, and downstream new orders were limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The intraday price of unified benzene fluctuated around 5400 yuan/ton, with East China spot prices and Sinopec's listed price dropping. Port inventory increased, and the load of pure benzene plants rose slightly. The market was expected to be bearish in the medium - term [3] - Styrene futures' main contract declined. New plants were in normal production, and product inflows increased. The short - term price was expected to remain weak [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated widely. PX and PTA supply increased, and PTA had inventory accumulation pressure. The downstream demand was expected to weaken in the medium - term [4] - Ethylene glycol's weekly output decreased slightly, but supply was expected to increase. It was expected to continue accumulating inventory in the medium - term [4] - Short - fiber had no new investment pressure, and its inventory was expected to increase in mid - to late November. Bottle - chip demand weakened, and the processing margin was under pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures declined continuously and stabilized in the afternoon. Port inventory was high and continued to accumulate. Downstream demand was weak, and the market needed supply reduction and demand improvement [5] - Urea futures fluctuated strongly. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase. Production enterprises had slight inventory accumulation. The market was expected to continue range - bound [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was at a low level. Enterprises' inventory increased, and social inventory decreased, but the industry's inventory pressure was still high. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was expected to decline [6] - Caustic soda continued to decline. The industry's inventory was high, downstream demand was average, and cost support weakened [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Unified soda ash fluctuated. Supply increased, and inventory was high. The consumption of soda ash decreased due to float glass shutdowns, and the price was under pressure [7] - Float glass futures declined from a high level. Production line shutdowns led to inventory reduction expectations. Cost increased, and the profit margin narrowed. The market was expected to have limited downside [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, the US dollar index is strong, and copper prices weakened yesterday. In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases suppress demand. The support for the main contract is at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices will likely fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term, and there is a risk of a callback to 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton if inventory accumulates [4]. Aluminum Alloy - ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices will show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc. It may maintain range - bound oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000 [8]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they are expected to continue the strong trend [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be weakly adjusted, with the main contract reference range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [17]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 86590 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 685 yuan/ton, up 186.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was 30 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; in September, imports were 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 21440 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2608 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 21400 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 115 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 22580 yuan/ton, up 1.03% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 4758 yuan/ton, down 276.57 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month; in September, imports were 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [8]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin was at 285400 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium was 74.00 dollars/ton, up 85.00% from the previous day [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 310 yuan/ton, down 66.07% from the previous day [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 121800 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 was - 212 dollars/ton, down 3.25% from the previous day [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, up 0.84% month - on - month; imports were 38164 tons, up 124.36% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was at 12800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The futures - spot price difference was 425 yuan/ton, up 25.00% from the previous day [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 80608 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate benchmark) was 280 yuan/ton, down 83.53% from the previous day [17]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 1480 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month; demand was 126961 tons, up 8.70% month - on - month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Recently, the decline in iron ore prices has led to a rapid drop in steel prices. The iron element supply is in a loose pattern, and the decrease in hot metal production suppresses iron ore prices. It is expected that steel mills will actively reduce production in winter to ease the pressure of winter storage. The single-side prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to test the support levels of 3000 and 3200 respectively. The strategy of longing coking coal and shorting hot-rolled coils can continue to be held [2]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures showed a weak downward trend. The supply side has a rebound in port arrivals, while the demand side sees a decline in hot metal production and weakening restocking demand from steel mills. The inventory pressure is increasing. The iron ore driving force is weakening. The strategy is to short iron ore 2601 on rallies, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [4][6]. Coke Industry - The coke futures fluctuated downward. The spot price has been raised for the third time, and there is still an expectation of further increases. The cost is supported by the rebound of coking coal prices, but the demand is suppressed by environmental protection restrictions and low steel mill profits. The overall inventory is slightly increasing. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures fluctuated downward, with a divergence between the futures and the spot. The domestic coking coal market continues to be strong, but traders are becoming cautious. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weakening. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the rebar 05 contract decreased by 37 to 3108, and the hot-rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 32 to 3272 [2]. Cost and Profit - The steel billet price decreased by 20 to 2930, and the plate billet price remained unchanged at 3730. The profits of hot-rolled coils in East China and North China decreased by 10, while the profit in South China remained unchanged [2]. Production - The daily average hot metal production increased by 3.5 to 239.9, with a growth rate of 1.5%. The production of five major steel products increased by 10 to 875.3, with a growth rate of 1.2% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 41.1 to 1513.7, with a decline rate of -2.6%. The rebar inventory decreased by 19.6 to 602.5, with a decline rate of -3.1% [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 9.3, with a decline rate of -5.4%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.7 to 916.4, with a growth rate of 2.7% [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The costs of various iron ore warehouse receipts decreased. For example, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipts decreased by 6.6 to 829.3, with a decline rate of -0.8% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ores in Rizhao Port decreased. For example, the price of PB powder decreased by 6 to 782, with a decline rate of -0.8% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrivals increased by 1189.3 to 3218.4, with a growth rate of 58.6%. The global shipments decreased by 174.6 to 3213.8, with a decline rate of -5.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, with a decline rate of -1.5%. The national pig iron monthly production decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6, with a decline rate of -5.4% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 171.6 to 14714.08, with a growth rate of 1.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 to 8849.9, with a decline rate of -2.5% [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1612. The coke 01 contract decreased by 43 to 1729, with a decline rate of -2.4% [7]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, with a growth rate of 0.2% [7]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, with a decline rate of -1.5% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0, with a growth rate of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.2 to 59.9, with a growth rate of 2.1% [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 1.8 to -3.6, with a growth rate of 49.2% [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1420. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 32 to 1253, with a decline rate of -2.5% [7]. Supply - The raw coal production increased by 3.8 to 851.8, with a growth rate of 0.4%, and the clean coal production increased by 1.5 to 434.9, with a growth rate of 0.3% [7]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, with a growth rate of 0.2% [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9.2 to 81.1, with a decline rate of -10.2%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 to 1052.5, with a growth rate of 2.2% [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas market liquidity is tightening, and the US dollar index is strong, suppressing copper prices. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may inhibit demand. The subsequent focus is on demand changes and overseas liquidity, with the main contract supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract ranging from 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term, and there is a risk of correction if inventories continue to accumulate [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend, with the main contract ranging from 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction [6]. Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level. In the short term, zinc prices will be oscillating and relatively strong, but the fundamentals may limit the upward space, with the main contract ranging from 22300 - 23000 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. With a strong fundamental outlook, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Future trends depend on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [11]. Nickel - Macro sentiment is stable, and cost has some support, but the overall fundamentals are flat. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upward space of prices. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term market is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term strong fundamentals support the price, but the trading logic has switched recently. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted, with the main contract ranging from 76000 - 82000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86590 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 685 yuan/ton, up 186.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Monthly Spread - The 2512 - 2601 spread was 30 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month. In September, imports were 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 21440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2608 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The scrap - to - refined price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum was 1789 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day [6]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 115 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22580 yuan/ton, up 1.03% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 4758 yuan/ton, down 276.57 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month. In September, imports were 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was 74 dollars/ton, up 85% from the previous day [11]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, down 66.07% from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month, and SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121800 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 212 dollars/ton, down 3.25% from the previous day [13]. Monthly Spread - The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, up 0.84% month - on - month. Imports were 38164 tons, up 124.36% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The futures - spot price difference was 425 yuan/ton, up 25% from the previous day [15]. Monthly Spread - The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month. Imports were 12.03 million tons, up 2.70% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 80608 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate benchmark) was 280 yuan/ton, down 83.53% from the previous day [17]. Monthly Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 1480 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month. The total inventory was 84234 tons, down 10.90% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the products in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, and asphalt [2][4][6]. - Natural gas is rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [6]. - Glass is rated as "Bearish with Rebound" [6]. - Soda ash is rated as "Bearish with Consolidation" [6]. Core Viewpoints - The industry is generally affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and geopolitical risks. Most products face downward pressure due to oversupply or weakening cost support, while natural gas has upward potential due to increased demand in the consumption season [2][4][6]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.80%, Brent down 0.69%, and SC unchanged from the previous period [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply in the off - season. OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause production increases in Q1 next year. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating the accumulation [10][11]. - **Strategy**: Hold existing short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [455 - 470] [12]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 4, the PG main contract closed at 4,266 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [14][15]. - **Basic Logic**: It follows the cost - end oil price. The cost is bearish as Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price again. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical industry's operating rate has increased, but the inventory at ports has risen [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [17]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton [20]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory is slowly decreasing, and cost support is weakening. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is in the peak season but lacks restocking motivation [21]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices and hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6750 - 6900] [21]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories are at the same - period high. The demand is at the end of the "Silver October", and there is a high pressure to destock. The oil - based cost support is insufficient [25]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices and hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6450 - 6600] [25]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost support is weakening as the price of calcium carbide falls. The social inventory is stable, and the fundamentals maintain a high - inventory and high - warrant structure [29]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a high contango. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious when short - chasing. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4550 - 4700] [29]. PX - **Market Performance**: - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has domestic production cuts and overseas production increases. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high. The cost - end oil price rebounds but the supply - demand pattern remains loose [30]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of PX at [6550 - 6650] [31]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA01 closed at 4,586 yuan/ton [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low, and the later - stage device maintenance efforts are expected to increase, which will relieve the supply pressure. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory accumulation in November [33]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4530 - 4590] [34]. MEG - **Market Performance**: - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an expected inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver [36]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3870 - 3950] [37]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the spot price rebound. The supply pressure is large, and the demand performance is average. The cost support is weakly stable [40]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices and consider the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Pay attention to the price range of MA at [2091 - 2141] [42]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 closed at 1,625 yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory is at a high level but has decreased recently. The valuation is low [44]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long - term. Pay attention to the price range of UR at [1610 - 1640] [46]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 4, the NG main contract closed at 4.501 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 3.02% [48][49]. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical risk of sanctions on Russia has been released, and the demand for heating has increased with the temperature drop, which supports the gas price [50]. - **Strategy**: The rising demand in the consumption season supports the gas price, but the supply is sufficient, and the upward pressure is increasing. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.262 - 4.458] [51]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 4, the BU main contract closed at 3,193 yuan/ton, down 1.24% [53][54]. - **Basic Logic**: It follows the cost - end oil price. The cost support is decreasing, and the supply and demand are both weakening. The inventory has decreased [55]. - **Strategy**: The valuation is high, and the supply is sufficient. The medium - to - long - term trend is bearish. Lightly short - allocate. Pay attention to the price range of BU at [3100 - 3200] [56]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton [59]. - **Basic Logic**: The daily melting volume has increased slightly, the fundamentals are in a loose pattern, and the capital game is intense. The inventory in factories is slowly decreasing but remains high [60]. - **Strategy**: The loose pattern is hard to change, and the medium - to - long - term rebound is bearish. Pay attention to the price range of FG at [1060 - 1110] [60]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton [63]. - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory is slightly decreasing but still at a high level. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply is in a loose pattern due to high - production periods [64]. - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell - hedge at high prices. The single - side rebound is bearish. Pay attention to the price range of SA at [1170 - 1220] [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - The steel market has poor sentiment, and steel prices continue to decline. The iron ore market has weakening demand expectations, and prices are oscillating downward. The coking coal and coke market has average sentiment, and prices are oscillating downward. The动力煤 market has prices rising, with short - term upward momentum [1][3][5][7]. Summary by Commodity Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main contract of rebar closed at 3044 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3265 yuan/ton. The overall spot steel trading was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9.27 tons. The trading volume in the East China region decreased significantly, while that in the North and South increased slightly [1]. - Supply and demand logic: The cost of rebar still provides support, and there is a possibility of more favorable policies. The profit of hot - rolled coil is better than that of rebar, so the output is relatively high. As steel mills have profits, the willingness to cut production is low. In November, the number of planned maintenance and production cuts by steel mills increases, and there are occasional environmental protection restrictions in the North [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly [2]. Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price oscillated downward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 146.1 tons, a 12.99% increase from the previous period; the forward - looking spot trading volume was 72.2 tons, a 22.57% decrease [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The arrival volume of iron ore this week increased significantly by 58.6%. The overall iron ore valuation is neutral, the supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening and generally loose, and the ore price is under downward pressure. However, supported by downstream restocking demand, there is no clear trend in the short term. With steel mills' loss - driven production cuts, the resilience of iron ore demand has weakened, and the price faces correction pressure [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly [4]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The black commodity sector oscillated weakly, and the closing prices of coking coal and coke futures both declined slightly. The customs clearance volume of imported Mongolian coal continued to rise to a high level, and the trading atmosphere was average, with downstream players mainly in a wait - and - see mode [5]. - Logic and view: For coking coal, due to safety inspections, the supply in some producing areas has not fully recovered, and the overall output is low, with the supply shortage pressure not significantly alleviated. On the demand side, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand, but the expectation of a new round of coke price increases has risen, and the inventory - building willingness of some enterprises has increased. For coke, affected by the rising coal price, coke enterprises are still operating at a loss, and some have maintenance plans, so the supply has contracted to some extent. On the demand side, the price of finished steel has declined recently, and the profit of steel mills has shrunk significantly, but the market's expectation of rising raw material prices has increased, and the procurement plan has increased compared with before, providing some support for the coke price [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillating [6]. - Coke: Oscillating [6]. 动力煤 Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the producing areas, the coal price is still strong. Affected by safety inspections, the supply is tight. Downstream procurement is active, and the inventory of coal mines is decreasing. Miners believe that due to safety inspections and heating demand, the supply - demand mismatch will continue, and the price is difficult to decline in the short term. At ports, affected by the rising upstream prices, the quoted prices are firm, but downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand and is resistant to high - priced coal. Although railway transportation has increased and port inventory has accumulated, the accumulation rate is low. With the continuous price increase of upstream coal mines, the arrival cost has risen, so there is a shortage of low - priced coal resources, and the price will continue to rise in the short term. In the import market, the price is also strong, and the price difference between domestic and imported coal is still large, so imported coal still has an advantage [7]. - Demand and logic: Affected by the situation in the producing areas, the price will oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is still in a loose pattern, but with the approaching of the winter heating season, attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [7]. Strategy - No strategy provided [7].