Chief Executive Group最新发布的数据表明，美国企业界领导人的看法正在发生转变，因为他们正在密 切关注特朗普关税政策的不断变化。许多大型企业并未改变其盈利预期，他们指出，对于总统最终的贸 易政策会包含哪些内容以及不会包含哪些内容，目前仍存在不确定性。 特朗普在 4 月份公布了一项针对众多国家和地区实施大规模且高额征税的计划，此举导致美国金融市场 大幅波动。市场参与者担心这会抑制消费者支出。不过，他随后暂停了其中许多征税措施，这使得市场 得以部分挽回损失。在这一暂缓措施即将于下月初到期之际，白宫一直在与各国进行谈判。例如，特朗 普政府已与英国达成协议。 智通财经APP获悉，周一公布的数据表明，美国商界领袖对美国经济衰退的预期有所减弱，此前在特朗 普宣布加征关税后，这种预期曾一度飙升。根据Chief Executive Group上周对超过 270 位首席执行官 (CEO)进行的调查，不到 30% 的CEO预计未来六个月会出现轻度或重度经济衰退。这一比例低于 5 月 份的 46% 和 4 月份的 62%。 本月接受调查的CEO中，预计美国经济将出现一定程度增长的比例也飙升至 40% 以上，这一比 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The global risk appetite has generally increased due to the easing of trade tensions and better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data. In China, although May exports were slightly lower than expected, the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see; different commodity sectors also have corresponding trends and investment suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Global and Domestic Situation**: Overseas, the hope of easing trade tensions and better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data alleviated concerns about an impending economic slowdown, increasing global risk appetite. In China, May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [3]. - **Asset Performance and Suggestions**: The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see. Among commodities, black commodities are expected to rebound at a low level in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; non-ferrous metals are expected to rebound with fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemical products are expected to rebound with fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to be long; precious metals are expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to be long [3]. Stock Index - **Market Performance**: Driven by sectors such as biomedicine, football concepts, and rare earths, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly [4]. - **Fundamentals and Suggestions**: China's May exports were slightly lower than expected, but the trade surplus was higher than expected, and the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism continued, releasing positive signals, which boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term. The market's trading logic mainly focuses on changes in US trade policies and the progress of trade negotiations. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [4]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold rose slightly due to the weakening dollar, and silver maintained a strong upward trend. - **Fundamentals and Suggestions**: May's non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but there were concerns in employment data. The ISM manufacturing PMI was at a low level, and inflation expectations remained high, accumulating stagflation risks. There is still uncertainty in the trade situation. Silver has a demand for technical breakthrough and catch-up growth, and the gold-silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Pay attention to the weekly CPI price index to judge the Fed's policy path [5]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continued to rise on Monday as the new round of China-US trade negotiations brought the possibility of easing global trade tensions. The market is also closely watching the progress of US-Iran negotiations. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6][7]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rose slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Demand has recovered to a certain extent, but the recovery amplitude is still limited. The basis in major consumption areas has declined significantly, and the futures structure has weakened following the spot. Inventory destocking has stagnated recently, and it is advisable to continue to follow the high-level fluctuations of crude oil in the short term [7]. - **PX**: PTA's start-up has increased slightly recently, and the demand for PX will increase in the future. The supply pattern will remain tight, but the PX price has declined recently, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [7]. - **PTA**: The basis of PTA remains high, but the monthly spread has declined significantly. The supply of the upstream of the polyester end will increase in the short term, and the pattern of downstream load reduction is unlikely to change. The basis has probably reached a stage high recently [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The visible inventory of ethylene glycol has not been significantly destocked, and the cost pricing logic still exerts pressure on the futures market. The supply of ethylene glycol will increase significantly in the future, and the downstream start-up has decreased month-on-month. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern recently [8]. - **Short Fiber**: Short fiber generally maintains a weak and volatile pattern. The recovery speed of terminal orders is significantly lower than expected, and the price of short fiber has begun to weaken. It is expected to continue to operate weakly and volatile in the short term [8]. - **Methanol**: The market price of methanol at the port maintains a volatile trend, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The inventory in the inland and at the port has increased simultaneously. It is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term, and the price still has room to decline in the medium and long term [8]. - **PP**: The domestic market quotation of PP is mainly stable, and the inventory has increased after the holiday. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and the futures price is expected to be under pressure and the center of gravity will move down [9]. - **LLDPE**: The price of the polyethylene market has been adjusted, and the inventory has increased. The production expectation suppresses the price, and the price center of gravity is expected to move down [9][10]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The China-US negotiation has entered a deep stage, and it is difficult to exceed expectations greatly. The copper mine supply is relatively tight, but the production of electrolytic copper is at a high level. The demand is approaching the off-season, and there is a risk of marginal decline in demand. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory of aluminum ingots has continued to decline significantly, but the market expectation is weak. The demand may weaken marginally, and the inventory destocking will slow down or even accumulate [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight in the domestic real market, and the production rate has declined. The demand is in the off-season, and the inventory has decreased. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed, and the tin price is expected to continue to repair in the short term, but the upside space is under pressure [12]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the net selling of CBOT grain commodity funds increased. The meteorological conditions in the US soybean producing areas are good, and the sowing progress is fast. The USDA's June supply and demand report may have a neutral impact on the market. Pay attention to the end-of-month report on the estimated soybean planting area [13]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: China's soybean imports in May increased significantly year-on-year. The pressure of concentrated arrivals of domestic imports has been realized, and the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has been quickly repaired. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal lack a stable upward driving force [13][14]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The opening of oil mills has returned to normal, and the inventory of soybean oil has continued to rise. The supply of rapeseed oil in the spot market has increased. Pay attention to changes in China-Canada trade policies [15]. - **Palm Oil**: The energy market is under pressure to decline in the medium and long term, and the external油脂 market is under pressure. The domestic import profit is inverted, and the inventory is low. The inventory has increased slightly recently [15]. - **Live Pigs**: As the incremental supply of group farms and the expectation of weight reduction and pressure release in the market are gradually realized, pig prices may continue to be weakly adjusted. There may be a supplementary increase in the near-month contract [16]. - **Corn**: The corn market is affected by wheat policies and is quoted strongly. The short-term upward pressure on the spot and futures prices still exists, but after the wheat harvest, the corn demand will return, and it is still an easy-to-rise and difficult-to-fall market [16].

摘要 主要观点：关税的数据验证是下半年美国经济的主要矛盾，短期更需关注通胀的走向 特朗普关税现状、展望如何？ 5月12日中美协议后，全球贸易不确定性有所回落，但仍然处于历史极值水平。美国平均进口关税税率仍在16%左右。中国对 美国税率降至27%。美国对等关税、对华关税暂停期分别将在7月9日、8月12日结束。截止5月末，美国进口关税税率较高的行业为服装、金属等，且与其他 经济体的关税谈判进展缓慢。后续继续关注关税谈判进展以及美国立法、政治阻力。 关税的经济效应： 关税对通胀、增长影响何时体现？ 随着中-美集装箱预订量大幅提升，新一轮"抢进口"已然开启。但是，随着库存累积、 内需走弱、关 税"休战"到期，下半年美国"抢进口"动力或受掣肘；通胀方面，关税对美国通胀的推升效应已经出现，但效果尚不显著，三、四季度可能进入通胀上行期； 投资方面，制造业PMI、资本开支意愿调查、地产销售均指向更弱的私人投资；消费方面，近期居民收入受"暂时性"因素推升，居民"抢购"意愿已有所下滑； 就业方面，失业金等数据已出现恶化迹象，警惕失业率上升风险。 动态而言，关税对于经济的影响是从"滞胀"到"放缓"，具体取决于关税冲突如何演绎。 在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations, indicating the continuous impact on demand and inflation. Despite weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies remain stable, and short - term policies may focus on existing measures. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. The April trade deficit was lower than expected, mainly due to demand front - loading and a sharp increase in Sino - US tariffs. Factory orders declined more than expected. The June "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in economic activity, and the economic outlook was described as "slightly pessimistic and uncertain". However, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed is expected to keep the benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic: Current policies remain stable, and short - term policies may focus on existing measures. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and its price is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal policies will implement established measures [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks should be noted. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Pay attention to option market liquidity. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong. Pay attention to changes in the capital market and policy expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The progress of Sino - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short - term. Pay attention to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Pay attention to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases. Pay attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: The fundamental contradictions are limited, and the price is mainly driven by costs. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Iron ore: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is boosted by the macro - environment. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Coke: Molten iron production continued to decline, demand was weak, and the third round of price cuts was inevitable. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Coking coal: Supply was slightly disrupted and contracted, and the supply - demand improvement was not obvious. Pay attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price fluctuated at a high level. Pay attention to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [7]. - Alumina: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the alumina price fluctuated at a high level. Pay attention to unexpected delays in ore复产 and unexpected increases in electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Aluminum: The trade tension has eased, and the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. Pay attention to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Zinc: Zinc ingot inventory continued to decline, and the zinc price rebounded slightly. Pay attention to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [7]. - Lead: There is still cost support, and the lead price fluctuated. Pay attention to supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Nickel: The supply - demand situation is generally weak, and the nickel price fluctuated widely in the short - term. Pay attention to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price rebounded slightly, and the price fluctuated. Pay attention to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Tin: The inventory in both markets continued to decline, and the tin price fluctuated. Pay attention to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Industrial silicon: The flood season is approaching, and the silicon price is still under pressure. Pay attention to unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - Lithium carbonate: The warehouse receipts decreased slightly, and the lithium price rose with reduced positions. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and pay attention to macro and geopolitical disturbances. Pay attention to OPEC+ production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - LPG: Demand remains weak, and the rebound space of PG may be limited. Pay attention to the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Asphalt: Profits continue to expand, and the downward pressure on the asphalt futures price increases. Pay attention to unexpected demand. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: As the crude oil price rises, the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil declines. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates with the crude oil price. Pay attention to crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term trend is expected to decline [9]. - Methanol: The coal price stabilizes, the port basis strengthens, and methanol fluctuates. Pay attention to the macro - energy situation and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Urea: The futures price is weak, and wait for the callback opportunity after agricultural demand is released. Pay attention to market trading volume, policy trends, and demand realization. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - Ethylene glycol: Terminal demand is less than expected, and inventory reduction through maintenance is reflected in the monthly spread. Pay attention to ethylene glycol terminal demand. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [9]. - PX: Polyester production cuts disrupted the market, and the PX price declined. Pay attention to crude oil price fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - PTA: Polyester production cuts disrupted the market, and the PTA price declined. Pay attention to polyester production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Short - fiber: Textile and clothing demand is less than expected, and the processing fee of short - fiber is compressed at a high - level of production. Pay attention to terminal textile and clothing exports. The short - term trend is expected to rise with volatility [9]. - Bottle chips: Production was at a high level, supply was in surplus, and low processing fees will continue. Pay attention to future bottle - chip production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - PP: The oil price rebounded, and pay attention to maintenance changes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Plastic: The raw material end provides support, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Styrene: The real - world situation is still poor, and the styrene price fluctuates weakly. Pay attention to the oil price, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - PVC: Short - term sentiment improved, and PVC rebounded weakly. Pay attention to expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Caustic soda: The spot price reached the peak and declined, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. Pay attention to market sentiment, production, and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Oils and fats: The Sino - US trade negotiations boosted market sentiment, and there is a demand for soybean and palm oil to rebound. Pay attention to South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Protein meal: The spot price declined, the basis weakened, and the technical rebound of the futures price is expected to be limited. Pay attention to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. 3.3 Agriculture - Corn/Starch: The spot market is stable, and the futures price continues to rise. Pay attention to less - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Live pigs: Supply and demand are loose, and the pig price fluctuates at a low level. Pay attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term trend is expected to decline with volatility [9]. - Rubber: There are no new variables, and the futures price stabilizes. Pay attention to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures price stabilizes temporarily. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Pulp: There is no major driving force for pulp, and it mainly fluctuates. Pay attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Cotton: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the macro - environment releases positive signals to boost the futures price. Pay attention to demand and production. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Sugar: The sugar price fluctuates and consolidates, and pay attention to the 5700 support level. Pay attention to abnormal weather. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9]. - Logs: The delivery game is intense, and the futures price fluctuates more. Pay attention to shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [9].

2025 年的美国正站在历史的十字路口。从洛杉矶街头的硝烟到华尔街的博弈，从国会山的政治角力到波罗的海的军事对峙，这个超级大国正在经历着经济 转型的阵痛、社会结构的裂变与国际秩序的重构。这是一个充满矛盾的时代 —— 技术革命带来的繁荣与传统行业的衰退并存，公民权利意识的觉醒与政治 极化的加剧共生，全球领导力的式微与单边主义的回潮交织。 二、社会裂变：街头冲突背后的政治重构 特朗普政府的政策正在撕裂美国社会。自 2025 年 1 月重返白宫以来，其推动的削减开支、打击移民和加征关税等政策引发了多轮大规模抗议。4 月 5 日的 "Hands Off" 示威覆盖全美 50 个州，1400 场游行中旧金山湾区近万人要求总统下台。5 月 1 日的 "50501" 运动更是将抗议推向高潮，洛杉矶市中心 5000 民 众抗议驱逐外来劳工的政策。 这种社会分裂已突破传统左右分野。皮尤研究中心数据显示，43% 受访者认为 "持不同政见者构成生存威胁"，较 2020 年翻番。芝加哥大学测算的政治倾向 居住隔离指数已达 1968 年种族隔离巅峰期的 83%。更令人担忧的是，占总人口 12% 的 "双重武装群体" 正在重塑冲突形态， ...

首席点 评： 白银闪亮，黑色暗淡 贵金属 ：金银走势分化，黄金延续震荡，白银连续走强。中美高级官员在伦敦展开新一轮贸易谈判。 美国 5 月非农就业新增 13.9 万，超市场预期 13 万，失业率稳定在 4.2% ，工资增长超出预期。短期降 息预期降温，黄金出现回落，而白银在金银比价高位、行情突破走高、已经景气景气好于预期的带动下 继续走强，金银比价进一步修复。此前美国总统特朗普将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从 25% 提 高至 50% ，市场担忧关税会进一步蔓延至贵金属。美国众议院以微弱优势通过税改法案，对美国债务 问题和经济压力的担忧发酵。 5 月开始公布的经济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈 现更将明显的滞胀态势，不过近期数据所显示关税政策的冲击比担忧中的要小。短期内美联储难有动 作，但随着政策框架的修改，或为未来宽松进行铺垫。考虑市场正处于期待关税冲突降温的阶段，而美 联储短期内难有快速降息。黄金长期驱动仍然明确提供支撑，短期内如有有关美国债务问题发酵或是美 联储重新 QE 等动作，或提供反弹动力，整体上呈现震荡态势。白银突破后短期延续强势。 钢材 ： 当前钢厂盈利率持平未明显降低，铁水 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are reassessing the impact of tariffs on the market and inflation ahead of the upcoming US May Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, leading to a shift in market consensus [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Hedge fund trader Gang Hu believes that even if inflation data is poor, the stock market is likely to maintain an upward trend due to tariffs being viewed as "lagging but predictable" [1] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite indices had previously dropped to 52-week lows after the implementation of a 10% tariff on most imported goods, but the market has since absorbed the short-term impacts of such trade policies [1] - Hu predicts that the core CPI monthly increase may rise from 0.2% in April to over 0.4% in August, before dropping below 0.2% in November and December, and then rising again to about 0.3% by March next year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - Despite a surge in unemployment claims and unexpected contraction in service sector activity raising concerns about economic slowdown, the US economy has not entered a recession as feared [2] - The stock market remains stable, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new highs since February, closing at 6005.88 and 19591.24 points respectively [2] - Barclays analysts warn that "stagflation" signs are re-emerging in the data, and upcoming inflation data may clearly show price pressures from tariffs [2] Group 3: Inflation Dynamics and Future Outlook - Hu has a track record of accurate inflation predictions, having previously indicated that inflation would last longer than expected and that the Federal Reserve would maintain high interest rates until at least September 2024 [3] - Tariffs are seen as a "double-edged sword" that could either sustain inflation and keep the Fed's rates high or slow economic growth and trigger a recession, creating significant uncertainty in policy direction [3] - Economists generally expect the May CPI year-on-year rate to be 2.5%, with a core CPI month-on-month rate of 0.3%, indicating a relatively mild change compared to April [3]

摘要 小微企业受关税及摩擦成本影响显著，利润空间受挤压，海外订单新增 受阻，美国进口商持谨慎态度，对小微企业造成较大冲击。 中国房地产市场一季度短暂回升后再次进入低位徘徊，表明财政刺激政 策力度减弱，内需和外需均不积极，经济基本面在低位企稳。 中美谈判聚焦稀土出口和技术封锁，关税进一步下调难度大。陆家嘴论 坛或将公布金融政策，如推动中长期资金入市、提高企业分红等，并可 能出台生育补贴和新型政策性金融工具。 港股市场受益于新消费与新科技资产占比高，以及美元例外论瓦解后非 美元资产上涨的趋势，在全球资本外溢中具备优势。 美国 5 月褐皮书显示经济温和增长，但贸易政策不确定性对餐饮、零售、 旅游及制造业产生压力，企业对未来招聘持谨慎态度，价格压力依然存 在。 美国企业面临需求疲软导致价格上涨无法完全转嫁给消费者的问题，利 润空间受挤压，贸易政策不确定性影响企业和消费者信心。 美国 PMI 数据显示新订单急速下跌，通胀明显抬升，滞胀压力显现。美 股上涨与关税缓和预期相关，美债收益率小幅上升，美元保持反弹。 Q&A 近期国内经济的主要变化和市场策略有哪些？ 近期国内经济数据虽然整体稳定，但出现了一些微妙变化。例如，5 ...

白银补涨，金银比高位回调 ——黄金行业周报 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：任恒 执业证书编号：S0740525010001 Email：renheng@zts.com.cn 分析师：谢鸿鹤 执业证书编号：S0740517080003 Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn 风险提示：宏观波动、政策变动、金属价格波动风险、产业政策不及预期的风险、下游消 费不及预期的风险、研究报告中使用的公开资料可能存在信息滞后或更新不及时的风险等。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 投资建议：白银补涨，金银比高位回调，维持行业"增持"评级。 美国经济数据不及预期，市场对美联储降息预期提升，但中美贸易缓和使得避险需求 下行，黄金价格短期预计维持震荡。中长期来看，美国粘性通胀挥之不去，2025 年已 然进入"滞胀-衰退"阶段，且日债大跌背后更多是央行持债占比过高带来的市场流动 性问题，美元信用体系的重塑已经成为趋势，金价有望持续走高，维持行业"增持" 评级。 基本状况 行情回顾：贵金属板块跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.70pct。本周贵金属板块环比上涨 3.58%， 跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.70pct；跑输申万有色金属指数 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货大面积收涨，白银涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20250609 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读 本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 1、宏观精要 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...