Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: The market is trading on the logic of port pressure being transmitted to the inland. Although there is seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment in the inland later, the port will continuously cause reverse flow impact. Currently, the price is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Reverse flow can relieve port pressure but will impact inland valuation. With average valuation, inventory, and weak drivers, it's necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2]. - **Plastic**: For polyethylene, the inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increment for now. Pay attention to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025, so focus on new device commissioning [6]. - **PP**: For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price difference is neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price difference is neutral. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production start - up is stable. Subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, supply pressure can be relieved to a neutral level [8]. - **PVC**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, but the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest devices have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and Q1 high - production levels. In Q4, focus on production capacity commissioning and export continuity. Near - term export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide's profit is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. PVC's comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [8]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The price of江苏现货 decreased from 2261 to 2285, 华南现货 decreased from 2248 to 2270, 鲁南折盘面 decreased from 2545 to 2500, 西南折盘面 decreased from 2525 to 2500, 西北折盘面 decreased from 2695 to 2683. The import profit remained at 326, and the盘面MTO profit remained at - 1255 [2]. Plastic - **Price Data**: From September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, the price of东北亚乙烯 decreased from 810 to 785, 华北LL decreased from 7080 to 6890, 华东LL decreased from 7215 to 7075, 华东LD remained at 9500 (except for a short - term increase to 9525), 华东HD remained at 7350 (except for a decrease to 7250 on October 14). The import profit was - 6 on September 30 and - 6 on October 14, with fluctuations in between. The主力期货 decreased from 7153 to 6918, and the仓 single decreased from 12736 to 12717 [6]. PP - **Price Data**: From September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, the price of山东丙烯 increased from 6350 to 6260 (with fluctuations), 华东PP decreased from 6720 to 6540, 华北PP decreased from 6740 to 6570, 山东粉料 decreased from 6670 to 6520, 华东共聚 decreased from 7002 to 6916. The export profit remained at - 21 on September 30 and October 14, with fluctuations in between. The主力期货 decreased from 6852 to 6602, and the仓 single decreased from 14098 to 13814 [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, the price of西北电石 decreased from 2550 to 2425, 山东烧碱 decreased from 807 to 835 (with fluctuations). The price of电石法 - 华东 remained at 4640 (except for an increase to 4660 on October 10), 乙烯法 - 华东 remained at 5500, 电石法 - 华南 remained at 5450, 电石法 - 西北 decreased from 4400 to 4370. The进口美金价 (CFR中国) remained at 700, and the出口 profit remained at 419 on October 13 and 14 [8].

Group 1: Spot Market - The spot prices in North China are at 6890 (-60), East China at 6950 (-50), and South China at 7130 (-50), indicating a general decline of around 50 [1] - The market sentiment is weak, with low transaction volumes primarily driven by essential demand [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Inventory Data - The capacity utilization rate stands at 81.24%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% [2] - The average operating rate of downstream PE is at 44.36%, with a minor increase of 0.23% [2] Group 3: Inventory and Market Outlook - Upstream equity inventory has accumulated to 105,900 tons [3] - The peak of PE maintenance has been observed, with significant inventory pressure expected in October due to the return of maintenance facilities and increased imports, while downstream demand remains lackluster [3] Group 4: Strategy - The current market strategy is to remain observant [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Report Core Views - **Methanol**: The trading logic is the pressure transmission from ports to the inland. The inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increment from Lianhong, but port backflow will impact the inland. Currently, the price is benchmarked against inland prices. Xingxing is expected to start operations in early September, but inventory is still accumulating. Backflow can relieve port pressure but will affect inland valuation. Valuation, inventory, and driving forces are average, so bottom - fishing should wait [2]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are destocking, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw - material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price differences are fluctuating. LD is weakening. September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production has decreased. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure in 2025 is significant [5]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production is stable.拉丝 production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average, and raw - material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to have a slightly excessive supply pressure. If exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is frequent, supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - delivery basis is - 480. Downstream开工 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Summer northwest device seasonal maintenance has a load center between spring maintenance and Q1 high production. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity realization and export sustainability. Near - end export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profit is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The export counter - offer for caustic soda is FOB380. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Current static inventory contradictions are accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工 [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: The daily changes of methanol include 0 for动力煤期货, 72 for江苏现货, 75 for华南现货, - 12 for鲁南折盘面, 0 for西南折盘面, 0 for河北折盘面, 0 for西北折盘面, 0 for CFR中国, 0 for CFR东南亚, 0 for进口利润, 45 for主力基差, and 0 for other aspects [2]. Polyethylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 29 to October 13, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene decreased from 815 to 785,华北LL decreased from 7100 to 6950,华东LL decreased from 7215 to 7150,华东LD remained at 9500 (except for a small increase on October 9),华东HD remained at 7350, LL美金 remained at 830 (except for a decrease to 820 on some days), LL美湾 decreased from 785 to 767,进口利润 remained at - 42,主力期货 decreased from 7181 to 6983,基差 remained at - 50 (except for - 40 on October 9),两油库存 increased from 56 to 86 and then remained at 85, and仓单 decreased from 12736 to 12729 [5]. Polypropylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From September 29 to October 13, 2025,山东丙烯 decreased from 6370 to 6200,东北亚丙烯 remained at 750,华东PP decreased from 6735 to 6635,华北PP decreased from 6750 to 6620,山东粉料 decreased from 6700 to 6570,华东共聚 decreased from 7002 to 6916, PP美金 remained at 840 (except for a decrease to 835 on some days), PP美湾 remained at 925,出口利润 remained at - 33,主力期货 decreased from 6903 to 6693,基差 increased from - 160 to - 90,两油库存 increased from 56 to 86 and then remained at 85, and仓单 decreased from 14098 to 13970 [6]. PVC - **Price and Profit Data**: From September 29 to October 13, 2025,西北电石 decreased from 2550 to 2450,山东烧碱 increased from 807 to 850,电石法 - 华东 decreased from 4780 to 4640,乙烯法 - 华东 remained at 5500,电石法 - 华南 remained at 5450,电石法 - 西北 decreased from 4400 to 4370,进口美金价 (CFR中国) remained at 700,出口利润 remained at 362,西北综合利润 remained at 356,华北综合利润 remained at - 244, and基差 (高端交割品) remained at - 150 (except for - 120 on some days) [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the br2511 contract is a price fluctuation between 10,800 - 11,400 yuan/ton. With the restart of previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants and increased production, and sufficient supply of butadiene, as well as the expected increase in tire enterprise capacity utilization, the market situation is expected to change accordingly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The main contract position is 32,013 lots, an increase of 3,155 lots. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 245 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,870 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers shows a downward trend. The basis of synthetic rubber is 280 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 62.73 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.49 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 576.75 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.5 dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 785 dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 dollars/ton. The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,020 dollars/ton, a decrease of 25 dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 58.9 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.61 dollars/barrel. The market price of butadiene in Shandong is 8,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.54 million tons/week, an increase of 0.01 million tons/week. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.37%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 27,750 tons, unchanged. The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.43%, a decrease of 3.06 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 66.41%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 544 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons. The manufacturer's inventory and trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber are unchanged [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 55.26%, a decrease of 18.32 percentage points. The weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 50.87%, a decrease of 14.85 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, an increase of 280,000 pieces. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, an increase of 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.87 days, an increase of 0.36 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.7 days, a decrease of 0.23 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 9, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a decrease of 17.50 percentage points compared to the previous period and 36.62 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a decrease of 13.83 percentage points compared to the previous period and 0.78 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Some enterprises carried out shutdown and maintenance during the holiday, which affected the overall capacity utilization rate. In September 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase from the same period last year. From January to September, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a 20% increase compared to the same period last year. In September 2025, the output and capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber slightly declined. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 69.91%, a decrease of 0.49 percentage points compared to the previous period and an increase of 12.16 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - The previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and the domestic output has increased. Some plants have also increased their production loads, and the overall output is expected to increase month - on - month. In October, although there are maintenance plans for butadiene plants of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical, the supply of butadiene is still abundant due to the recovery of previously under - loaded plants and imports. During the holiday, some domestic tire enterprises carried out maintenance, which significantly reduced the enterprise capacity utilization rate. As the maintenance enterprises resume production, the device capacity will be gradually released, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is expected to increase significantly this week [2].

Core Insights - The polysilicon price index this week is 52.36 yuan/kg, influenced by various market factors [1] - The production of polysilicon remains stable with a weekly output of 31,000 tons, while demand is expected to decrease in Q4 due to production cuts by wafer manufacturers [1] Supply and Demand - The N-type polysilicon re-investment material is priced between 50.1 - 55 yuan/kg, and granular silicon is priced at 50 - 51 yuan/kg [1] - The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase by 3,000 to 5,000 tons month-on-month in October, with the current weekly production at 31,000 tons [1] - Wafer manufacturers are maintaining normal production during the National Day holiday, leading to a tight balance in supply and demand for September and October [1] Inventory Levels - Polysilicon inventory has increased to 240,000 tons, reflecting a 6.2% month-on-month change, while silicon wafer inventory stands at 16.78 GW, with a 3.4% increase [1] Cost Structure - The overall cost for most companies remains around 45,000 yuan/ton, with some benefiting from lower electricity prices, bringing costs below 40,000 yuan/ton [1] Market Strategy - The industry is facing significant inventory pressure due to self-discipline in production cuts and weak consumer performance, making price transmission difficult [1] - The futures market is under pressure from the cancellation of November warehouse receipts and slow policy progress, with short-term price fluctuations expected between 47,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The threat of Trump to impose significant additional tariffs on China is uncertain, and market sentiment needs further clarification. For copper, overseas mine production cuts and reduced domestic refined copper output may support prices. If the trade situation is a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline [2][3]. - The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations is uncertain. For aluminum, if the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the domestic aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity [5][6]. - For lead, the apparent inventory of lead ore has slightly increased, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead has decreased, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [8][9]. - For zinc, domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [10][12]. - For tin, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term [13][14]. - For nickel, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices [15][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations [19][20]. - For alumina, the short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22][24]. - For stainless steel, the market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [26][27]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [29][30] Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Trump's tariff threat causes market panic, leading to a 3.73% drop in LME copper 3M to $10374/ton and a fall in SHFE copper to 83030 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreases by 75 to 139000 tons, and domestic SHFE inventory increases by 15000 tons compared to before the holiday [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tariff threat is uncertain. From the fundamental perspective, supply tightening supports prices. If it's a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline. The operating range of SHFE copper is 82000 - 85500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is $10200 - 10700/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations causes aluminum prices to weaken. LME aluminum 3M drops 1.31% to $2746/ton, and SHFE aluminum closes at 20755 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories increase slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum billets declines [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 21100 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is $2700 - 2790/ton [6] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rises 0.12% to 17142 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rises to $2027.5/ton. Domestic social inventory decreases to 3.58 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The apparent inventory of lead ore increases slightly, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead decreases, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [9] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index falls 0.18% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S falls to $2997/ton. Domestic social inventory increases slightly to 15.02 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [11][12] Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fall due to Sino - US trade frictions. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and Indonesia cracks down on illegal mining, increasing supply concerns. The downstream new - energy vehicle and AI server industries are booming, but traditional consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries are weak. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season drives marginal improvement in consumption [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of domestic tin is 280000 - 300000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $36000 - 39000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuate and fall at night due to Sino - US trade frictions. The spot market trading is average, and the cost of nickel ore is stable. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and the price of MHP is high [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On October 10, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate is flat at 73011 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72500 - 74000 yuan, and that of industrial - grade is 71500 - 72000 yuan. The price of LC2511 contract falls 0.82% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 68800 - 73800 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 10, the alumina index falls 0.66% to 2861 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong falls to 2865 yuan/ton, and the overseas FOB price in Australia rises to $324/ton. The import window is close to closing, and the futures warehouse receipts increase [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23][24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closes at 12860 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi are stable. The raw - material prices are stable, and the social inventory decreases [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Aluminum alloy prices rise and then fall following aluminum prices. The AD2511 contract falls 0.41% to 20465 yuan/ton. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 rises slightly, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the main domestic markets decreases [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being liberalized. In September, manufacturing production accelerated with the PMI rising to 49.8%, and the business climate continued to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, and the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, despite the repeated US tariffs [2]. - The copper market in 2024 will have a slight surplus, while it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The supply side is disturbed, and the PMI in September shows an improved business climate. It is considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 86,675 with a basis of 775, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 10, copper inventory decreased by 75 to 139,400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons compared to last week. It is considered neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and the escalation of the trade war are the logical factors affecting the market, but specific bullish and bearish factors are not detailed [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - **Overall Situation**: There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - **China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2018 - 2024, China's copper production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance are presented in the table. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, import is 3.73 million tons, export is 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [22].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Asphalt Morning Report" [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: October 13, 2025 [3] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Contracts - The closing prices of BU contracts on October 10, 2025, showed varying degrees of decline compared to previous days, with the BU01 contract dropping by 57 to 3248, and the BU11 contract down 47 to 3328 [4]. - The trading volume on October 10 was 323,321, an increase of 107,262 from the previous day and 47,323 from the previous week [4]. - The open interest on October 10 was 322,594, an increase of 2,486 from the previous day but a decrease of 71,983 from the previous week [4]. Spot Market - The market prices of asphalt in different regions showed different trends, with the Shandong market price remaining unchanged at 3490, the North China market price dropping by 30 to 3560, and the Northeast market price falling by 10 to 3800 [4]. - The basis and monthly spreads of asphalt also changed, with the Shandong basis (+80) increasing by 17 to 172, and the 10 - 11 monthly spread rising by 56 to 112 [4]. Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt - Brent crack spread on October 10 was 98, an increase of 51 from the previous day but a decrease of 42 from the previous week [4]. - The asphalt - Marrow profit on October 10 was 22, an increase of 46 from the previous day but a decrease of 38 from the previous week [4]. - The comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries on October 10 was 449, an increase of 36 from the previous day but a decrease of 88 from the previous week [4]. - The comprehensive profit of Marrow - type refineries on October 10 was 833, an increase of 39 from the previous day but a decrease of 25 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit from South Korea to East China on October 10 was - 225, a decrease of 2 from the previous day and 49 from the previous week [4]. - The import profit from Singapore to South China on October 10 was - 960, a decrease of 3 from the previous day and 13 from the previous week [4]. Related Commodity Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on October 10 was 65.2, a decrease of 1.0 from the previous day but an increase of 0.7 from the previous week [4]. - The market price of gasoline in Shandong on October 10 was 7433, a decrease of 25 from the previous day and 84 from the previous week [4]. - The market price of diesel in Shandong on October 10 was 3803, an increase of 60 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week [4]. - The market price of residue oil in Shandong on October 10 was 3743, a decrease of 10 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate mainly due to the resonance of macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory build - up, along with potential uncertainties from Indonesian news [1]. - The stainless - steel price is likely to fluctuate weakly next week as macro and real - world factors exert pressure, and while cost restricts its elasticity, the cost marginally declines [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Macro - sentiment and refined nickel inventory build - up put pressure on the nickel market. Trade war escalation and expected new pure - nickel production in the second half of the year increase supply, while alloy use of nickel - iron instead of nickel plates suppresses demand. Although non - standard nickel fundamentals improve marginally, the inventory build - up problem in refined nickel remains. Indonesian news may increase market concerns about nickel - ore supply governance, and the nickel - ore premium shows signs of stabilization and a slight increase [1]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 5,190 tons to 45,630 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,254 tons to 237,378 tons [5]. Stainless - Steel Market Analysis - **Fundamentals**: The demand for stainless steel is suppressed by tariffs and weak post - real - estate cycle consumption. The overall apparent demand growth rate has converged. The trade - war resurgence may pressure long - term demand. Supply is expected to increase slightly, but actual production may fall short of expectations. The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers due to significant holiday inventory build - up, high upstream inventory, and weak peak - season demand. Cost provides a bottom - support, but short - term nickel - iron price drops may lead to cost adjustments [2]. - **Inventory**: In September, SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.532 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 1%. Steel Union's stainless - steel social inventory was 1.054 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 8% [5]. New Energy Market Inventory - On October 10, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by +1, - 1, and 0 months - on - month to 5, 9, and 7 days respectively. On September 26, the precursor inventory changed by - 0.6 months - on - month to 14.0 days. On October 9, the ternary material inventory changed by - 0.1 months - on - month to 7.1 days [5]. Market News - In September, due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the PT WedaBav Nickel mine. The Indonesian government also sanctioned 190 mining companies for non - payment of reclamation deposits. The Indonesian government requires companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget online from October 1 to November 15 [6][7]. - Trump announced on October 10 that he may impose an additional 100% tariff on China starting from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [7]. Futures Research Data - **Prices and Volumes**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,180, down 2,300; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,780, down 80. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 159,070, an increase of 28,206; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 160,027, a decrease of 17,063 [9]. - **Industry Chain Data**: Data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, nickel - bean premium, and various product price spreads and import profits are provided [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the event at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and improved manufacturing PMI in September. Overall, it is considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 85750, with a basis of - 1000, indicating a discount to futures, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 9, copper inventory increased by 275 to 139475 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3745 tons to 95034 tons compared to last week. Overall, it is considered neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the copper price is expected to remain strong [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned as logical factors, but no clear classification of bullish or bearish factors is given [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [23].