数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 样本企业产能利用率恢复性提升。 复至常规水平，上周国内轮胎企业产能利用率环比提升，预计短期轮胎企业产能利用率小幅波动为主。ru2 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-06-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14010 | 140 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12330 | 190 | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -860 | -15 20号胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 50 | -15 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1680 | -50 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 156240 | -293 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 22667 | -3079 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -17204 | 1020 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -5862 | -3849 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 1931 ...

| 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/06/11 | 409.51 | 461.45 | -2.98 | 616.64 | -155.19 | 15.03 | 51.94 | | 2025/06/12 | 417.96 | 468.13 | -2.76 | 625.97 | -157.84 | 16.61 | 50.17 | | 2025/06/13 | 441.01 | 487.74 | -2.60 | 662.68 | -174.94 | 16.61 | 46.73 | | 2025/06/16 | 440.56 | 480.32 | -1.20 | 661. ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuates. The supply - demand pattern of rebar weakens seasonally, pressuring the steel price. However, inventory is decreasing at a low level, and the real - world contradictions are limited. The short - term trend will maintain a low - level fluctuating pattern, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4][38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuates. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils have not improved, and the price is under pressure. But overseas risks are easing, so it is expected that the price will continue the low - level fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuates weakly. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of iron ore remains unchanged, and the fundamentals are weakening, pressuring the ore price. The relatively positive factor is the large discount of the futures price. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue the weakly fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [4][39]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - From January to May 2025, Shanghai's urban infrastructure investment increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and the city's total social fixed - asset investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year [6]. - In May 2025, the production of commercial vehicles was 336,000 units (a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%), and the sales were 335,000 units (a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%). From January to May, the production and sales were 1.746 million and 1.753 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.2% and 1.2% [7]. - Australian mining company Tempest Minerals announced the test results of the Remorse iron ore project, with an iron ore grade of up to 70%, and most samples have an iron content of over 68% and extremely low impurity levels [8]. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price is 3,060 yuan, Tianjin is 3,200 yuan, and the national average is 3,229 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price is 3,190 yuan, Tianjin is 3,110 yuan, and the national average is 3,233 yuan. - Other products: The price of Tangshan billet is 2,920 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,100 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 714 yuan [9]. Futures Market | Product | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2,981 | 0.17 | 1,046,277 | - 491,145 | 2,140,997 | - 23,735 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,093 | 0.13 | 353,677 | - 249,865 | 1,522,669 | - 5,724 | | Iron ore | 699.0 | - 0.07 | 319,182 | - 219,028 | 675,663 | - 9,829 | [11] Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Includes charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory) [13][14][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Includes charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron ore concentrate inventory [20][21][26]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Includes charts of 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric furnace operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 - building material independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation [28][29][31]. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand are both declining. Supply is at a low level for the year, and inventory is decreasing, which supports the steel price. However, the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Demand is seasonally weak, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged. The short - term trend is a low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to demand changes [38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Although production has decreased due to steel mill maintenance, it is still at a high level for the year, and supply pressure is difficult to relieve. Demand is weakly stable, and industry contradictions are accumulating. Overseas risks are easing, and the price is expected to continue the low - level fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern weakens as expected, and inventory is accumulating. Steel mill production is weak in the off - season, and ore consumption is declining. Supply remains at a high level. The price is under pressure, and the futures price discount is large. The price will continue the weakly fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [39].

| | | 燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/17 | 日期 | LU 01 | LU 05 | LU 09 | LU 01-05 | LU 05-09 | LU 09-01 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/10 | 3431 | 3358 | 3518 | 73 | -160 | 87 | | 2025/06/11 | 3414 | 3348 | 3524 | 66 | -176 | 110 | | 2025/06/12 | 3496 | 3461 | 3609 | 35 | -148 | 113 | | 2025/06/13 | 3671 | 3625 | 3785 | 46 | -160 | 114 | | 2025/06/16 | 3695 | 3620 | 3829 | 75 | -209 | 134 | | 变化 | 24 | -5 | 44 | 29 | -49 | 20 | | | | | 结论观点： 本周高硫裂解震荡，原油大幅上涨，高硫伊朗供应占比较大，油品利润中表现较好。380月差 震荡， 7-8月 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot premium of zinc is moderately weak, and the inventory remains stable. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market is poor, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$22.95/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 240 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 20 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price drops by 280 yuan/ton to 21,990 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 60 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 230 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 10 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On June 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 21,745 yuan/ton and closes at 21,840 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 163,962 lots, a decrease of 27,075 lots, and the open interest is 116,264 lots, a decrease of 6,896 lots. The highest price is 21,935 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 21,660 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory is 130,225 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream raw material reserves are relatively sufficient, and the procurement enthusiasm is poor. The spot premium shows a moderately weak trend. The domestic ore TC is temporarily stable, the zinc ore import window is closed, and the overseas Q3 import ore TC is rising. The smelter's raw material inventory is still sufficient, and the long - term upward trend of the ore end remains unchanged. The smelting profit is stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy start - up rate is increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory, possibly due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" phenomenon. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market weakens, and the spot premium continues to decline [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index is affected by news in the short - term [2]. - The May economic data is mixed and difficult to provide clear direction. Future focus should be on tax periods and cross - half - year capital conditions [2]. - Geopolitical situations and Fed decisions impact gold, oil, and other commodity prices. The market has digested the Middle - East geopolitical risk, causing prices to decline [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Stock Index Futures - A - shares opened lower and closed higher, with TMT sectors rising. It is recommended to wait and consider selling put options with an exercise price of 5800 in July to earn premium [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - It is advisable to allocate long positions on dips as the 1.6% is the downward resistance level for the 10 - year bond yield [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, if the Israel - Iran conflict escalates and the price approaches the previous high of $3450 (800 yuan), or if the risk - aversion sentiment weakens and the price fails to break through the previous high, sell out - of - the - money call options [2]. Shipping Index Futures - Be cautious and wait, or consider the 12 - 10 reverse spread opportunity for the container shipping index (European line) [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - For steel, wait and consider the long - steel short - raw material spread operation. For iron ore, try shorting on rebounds with a resistance level around 720 [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - Consider the long - coking coal short - coke strategy. Coking coal's market is improving, while coke has a continued downward adjustment expectation and is close to the bottom [2]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are in bottom - range oscillations. Try shorting on rebounds to 5300 - 5400 for ferrosilicon and 5700 - 5800 for manganese silicon [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper's domestic spot trading is weak, and the US is replenishing stocks. Zinc's price center is moving down, and inventory reduction supports the price. Nickel and stainless steel are in narrow - range oscillations. Tin is in a high - level oscillation, and it is advisable to short on highs based on supply and inventory data [2]. Crude Oil - Wait and see. The resistance levels are [73, 74] for WTI, [74, 75] for Brent, and [530, 540] for SC [2]. Chemicals - For urea, take a bullish view in the short - term and consider positive spreads. PX is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6900. PTA is in a stalemate oscillation, and it is advisable to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and related products, the market is oscillating. For palm oil, it may optimistically reach 8600 in the short - term. For sugar, cotton, and eggs, short on rebounds [2]. Special Commodities - For soda ash, maintain the short - on - rebounds strategy. For glass, short in the short - term. For rubber, hold short positions [2]. Industrial Silicon and New Energy - related Commodities - Industrial silicon is in a low - level oscillation. For polysilicon, hold short positions cautiously. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to operate between 56,000 - 62,000 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the tight supply of 0.5% sulfur marine fuel, and the closure of the arbitrage window from the West to Singapore will limit cargo arrivals in the first half of July. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the seasonal demand peak of utilities in the Middle East during summer. However, sufficient supplier inventories and weak downstream bunker demand may suppress the market fundamentals in the short term. The fuel oil is expected to run strongly. FU2509 will run strongly in the range of 3250 - 3350, and LU2508 will run strongly in the range of 3800 - 3900 [3] - The market is driven by the resonance of supply - side production cuts to be observed and neutral demand. There are potential risks such as the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 474.18 dollars/ton with a basis of 219 yuan/ton; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil has a price of 543.5 dollars/ton with a basis of 120 yuan/ton, showing a spot premium over futures. The price is above the 20 - day line which is upward - sloping. High - sulfur主力 holds more long positions with a decrease in long positions, while low - sulfur主力 holds short positions with a decrease in short positions [3] - The overnight Middle East geopolitical risk first decreased and then increased. The possible US intervention in the Israel - Iran conflict raises market risk concerns [3] 3.2 Long - Short Focus - **Likely to be Bullish**: OPEC+ extends additional production cuts (implementation to be tracked), and China releases import quotas [4] - **Likely to be Bearish**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and there is a possibility of relaxation of sanctions on Russia [4] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The previous price of the FU主力 contract was 3169, and the current price is 3246, with a rise of 77 (2.43%); the previous price of the LU主力 contract was 3825, and the current price is 3854, with a rise of 29 (0.76%). The previous FU basis was 80, and the current one is 219, with a rise of 139 (173.50%); the previous LU basis was - 16, and the current one is 120, with a rise of 136 (- 827.08%) [5] - **Spot Market**: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils remained unchanged. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil rose from 445.99 to 474.18 dollars/ton (6.32%), the price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil rose from 519.50 to 543.50 dollars/ton (4.62%), the price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil rose from 426.41 to 454.08 dollars/ton (6.49%), and the price of Singapore diesel rose from 613.79 to 640.83 dollars/ton (4.41%) [6] 3.4 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory on the week of June 11 was 23.119 million barrels, an increase of 1.71 million barrels [3][8] 3.5 Spread Data - The report shows the historical data of the spread between high - and low - sulfur futures from 2021 - 09 - 07 to 2025 - 06 - 07 [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Nickel - The nickel market is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The short - term fundamentals lack drivers, and the mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside space [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main operating range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton. The supply is high, the demand is slowly recovering, and the social inventory is still high [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. The supply is sufficient, the demand is affected by policies, and the inventory is at a high level [6]. Tin - The tin price is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the long term due to the slow supply recovery and weak demand expectations. It is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points [7]. Zinc - In the long term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. The price may maintain a high - level shock if the mine supply growth is lower than expected and the downstream consumption is better than expected. Otherwise, the price may decline [10]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price is supported by the low inventory and low warehouse receipts, with the upper limit around 20,500 yuan/ton. In Q3, the price may face pressure, with the support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.64% to 120,725 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel price decreased by 0.71% to 121,775 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 0.31% to - 192 dollars/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,750 yuan/ton and 12,900 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 60,500 yuan/ton, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 58,900 yuan/ton [6]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.11% to 265,300 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.85% to - 82.5 dollars/ton [7]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.08% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 528 yuan/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.48% to 20,630 yuan/ton, and the alumina prices in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi decreased [13]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.39% to 78,645 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 912 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and the import volume increased by 8.18% to 8,832 tons. The SHFE inventory decreased by 5.39% to 25,676 tons [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and the import volume increased by 10.26% to 14.21 million tons [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate production in May decreased by 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and the demand increased by 4.81% to 93,938 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The 4 - month tin ore import increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and the SMM refined tin production in May decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. The SHEF inventory decreased by 3.59% to 7,107 tons [7]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc production in May decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons, and the import volume increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 4.41% to 7.81 million tons [10]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina production in May increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.98% to 45.80 million tons [13]. - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper production in May increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 19.06% to 25.00 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.76% to 81.28 million tons [14]. Market Analysis - **Nickel**: The macro environment is stable, the spot market sentiment is low, and the cost support is slightly weakened. The downstream demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market trading is light, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The supply is high, and the demand is slowly recovering [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures market is volatile, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is affected by policies [6]. - **Tin**: The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply recovery is slow, and the demand expectation is weak [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply - side mine is loose, and the demand - side is gradually weakening. The downstream consumption is in the off - season [10]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is supported by the low inventory, but the demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. The alumina supply is gradually increasing [13]. - **Copper**: The macro environment is weak, and the "strong reality" of the fundamentals restricts the decline. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the black building materials are expected to oscillate, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and ferromanganese [2][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] 2. Core Viewpoints - The black series as a whole has rebounded, driven by the rebound of coking coal and coke. However, due to the approaching off - season in the domestic construction and manufacturing industries, demand is hard to increase. With the large increase in iron ore shipments and the lack of obvious improvement in the supply of coking coal and coke, the market is expected to oscillate in the future [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. Steel mills' profitability and hot metal production have slightly decreased, but are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased increase in ore inventory, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][8] Carbon Element - The number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and coking coal production has declined, but the overall market supply is not tight. Coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of further decline. During the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment is poor, and the upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years. The supply contraction is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season tends to decline. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase in the short term [3] Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: There was a rumor about a mine dam failure, but it was verified that production and transportation are normal. Manganese ore prices have stabilized, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. A factory in Inner Mongolia plans to put new production capacity into operation in the second half of the month, and silicon manganese production may continue to increase. With the off - season approaching, the supply - demand of silicon manganese tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is expected to loosen. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Affected by the improvement in the energy sector, the silicon iron futures price rose from a low level. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream is about to enter the off - season, with a strong willingness to destock. The market sentiment is still cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [16] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: In the off - season, demand is declining, deep - processing demand is weakening, and the spot price is falling. There is a production line planned for cold repair, and 5 production lines are waiting to produce glass. The supply pressure remains. The market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [6][13] - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the resumption of maintenance, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the price center will decline in the long term [6][13] Individual Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the war between Iran and Israel has repaired the valuation of overseas commodities. The overall supply and demand of steel have weakened this week, but inventory is still being depleted. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: With the deepening of the off - season for building materials, the apparent demand for rebar has decreased. The supply of scrap steel is tight, but the market is pessimistic about off - season demand. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Coke**: Terminal steel demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply has decreased, but the upstream inventory is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The coke price is under downward pressure [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is pessimistic, and the supply remains loose. The production decline is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season is expected to fall. The coking coal price increase is restricted in the short term [12]