1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the black building materials are expected to oscillate, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and ferromanganese [2][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16] 2. Core Viewpoints - The black series as a whole has rebounded, driven by the rebound of coking coal and coke. However, due to the approaching off - season in the domestic construction and manufacturing industries, demand is hard to increase. With the large increase in iron ore shipments and the lack of obvious improvement in the supply of coking coal and coke, the market is expected to oscillate in the future [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. Steel mills' profitability and hot metal production have slightly decreased, but are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased increase in ore inventory, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][8] Carbon Element - The number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and coking coal production has declined, but the overall market supply is not tight. Coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of further decline. During the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment is poor, and the upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years. The supply contraction is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season tends to decline. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase in the short term [3] Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: There was a rumor about a mine dam failure, but it was verified that production and transportation are normal. Manganese ore prices have stabilized, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. A factory in Inner Mongolia plans to put new production capacity into operation in the second half of the month, and silicon manganese production may continue to increase. With the off - season approaching, the supply - demand of silicon manganese tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is expected to loosen. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3][15] - **Silicon Iron**: Affected by the improvement in the energy sector, the silicon iron futures price rose from a low level. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream is about to enter the off - season, with a strong willingness to destock. The market sentiment is still cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel procurement and production [16] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: In the off - season, demand is declining, deep - processing demand is weakening, and the spot price is falling. There is a production line planned for cold repair, and 5 production lines are waiting to produce glass. The supply pressure remains. The market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [6][13] - **Soda Ash**: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the resumption of maintenance, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the price center will decline in the long term [6][13] Individual Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the war between Iran and Israel has repaired the valuation of overseas commodities. The overall supply and demand of steel have weakened this week, but inventory is still being depleted. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - **Scrap Steel**: With the deepening of the off - season for building materials, the apparent demand for rebar has decreased. The supply of scrap steel is tight, but the market is pessimistic about off - season demand. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [9] - **Coke**: Terminal steel demand is in the off - season, and downstream procurement is cautious. The supply has decreased, but the upstream inventory is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The coke price is under downward pressure [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is pessimistic, and the supply remains loose. The production decline is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season is expected to fall. The coking coal price increase is restricted in the short term [12]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Presents the latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical percentiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios [1] Summary by Directory - **Futures - Spot Spread**: IF is - 7.78 (41.80% 1 - year, 40.00% all - time), IH is - 11.23 (- 2.16 change, 25.40% 1 - year, 19.50% all - time), IC is - 11.24 (8.69 change, 77.00% 1 - year, 67.00% all - time), IM is - 21.81 (13.61 change, 90.00% 1 - year, 48.30% all - time) [1] - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For different contracts like next - month vs. current - month, season - month vs. current - month, far - month vs. current - month, values and changes are provided for IF, IH, IC, and IM [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratio**: Such as CSI 500/CSI 300 = 1.4855 (- 0.0046 change, 60.20% 1 - year, 41.10% all - time), IC/IF = 1.4856 (- 0.0027 change, 64.70% 1 - year, 59.30% all - time), etc. [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report Core View - Shows the latest values, changes from the previous trading day, and percentiles since listing of various treasury bond futures spreads and basis [4] Summary by Directory - **Basis**: TS basis has an IRR of 1.7719 (- 0.0506 change, 33.90% percentile), TF basis has an IRR of 1.8376 (- 0.0358 change, 51.80% percentile), etc. [4] - **Inter - Delivery Spread**: For different contracts like current - season vs. next - season, values and changes are provided for TS, TF, T, and TL [4] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Such as TS - TF = - 3.7110 (- 0.0300 change, 2.00% percentile), TF - T = - 2.8450 (0.0250 change, 1.40% percentile), etc. [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Provides information on domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, price ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions of precious metals [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Prices**: Domestic AU2508 contract is 794.36 yuan/g (1.17% increase), AG2508 contract is 8791 yuan/kg (- 0.32% decrease); foreign COMEX gold is 3452.60 dollars/ounce (1.36% increase), COMEX silver is 36.37 dollars/ounce (- 0.11% decrease) [7] - **Spot Prices**: London gold is 3433.35 dollars/ounce (1.40% increase), London silver is 36.29 dollars/ounce (- 0.13% decrease), etc. [7] - **Basis**: Gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.50 (1.30 change, 12.40% 1 - year percentile), silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract is 2 (- 49 previous, 91.10% 1 - year percentile) [7] - **Price Ratios**: COMEX gold/silver is 94.93 (1.37 change, 1.47% increase), Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver is 90.36 (1.33 change, 1.49% increase) [7] - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.41% (1.1% increase), 2 - year US Treasury yield is 3.96% (1.5% increase), etc. [7] - **Inventory and Positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory is 18177 kg (1.85% increase), COMEX silver inventory is 498460011 (0.05% increase), etc. [7] Group 4: Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report Core View - Displays spot quotes, index changes, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data of the container shipping industry [11][12] Summary by Directory - **Spot Quotes**: Shanghai - Europe future 6 - week freight rates for MAERSK is 2796 dollars/FEU (- 2.03% decrease), CMA is 3857 dollars/FEU (1.88% increase), etc. [12] - **Index Changes**: SCFIS (European route) is 1622.81 points (29.53% increase), SCFI comprehensive index is 2088.24 (- 6.79% decrease) [11] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: EC2602 is 1472.8 (2.07% increase), EC2508 (main contract) is 2068.0 (4.20% increase), basis (main contract) is - 315.1 (374.1 change, - 54.28% change) [11] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply is 3247.12 million TEU (0.00% change), Shanghai port on - time rate is 42.50 (46.45% increase), etc. [11] Group 5: Trading Calendar Core View - Lists overseas and domestic data and information sources and corresponding economic indicators or financial events [13] Summary by Directory - **Overseas Data/Info**: In the agricultural product sector, includes Brazil Secex weekly report, USDA crop growth and export inspection in the US, NOPA soybean crushing [13] - **Domestic Data/Info**: For macro data, includes 70 - city housing price report, national economic operation press conference, etc.; for different commodities like iron ore, black and non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, etc., specific data such as shipments, inventories are provided [13]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the rapeseed meal industry [8] Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal is affected by factors such as low imported rapeseed inventory and the additional tariff on Canadian oil cake imports, leading to a short - term rise and then a fall. Along with the influence of soybean meal, its price will return to a range - bound oscillation in the short term [8] - The short - term supply - demand fundamentals of rapeseed meal enter a pattern of strong supply and demand in June, and the RM2509 contract may return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [44] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - Rapeseed meal's fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bearish; inventory is bullish; the price is bullish on the chart; the main position is bullish; it is expected to be range - bound in the short term [8] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight supply and rising demand in the spot market [10] - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, and China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cake, while the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [10] - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [10] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsets the decrease in Ukrainian production to some extent. Geopolitical conflicts support commodity prices [10] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil cake, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [11] - Bearish factors include the upcoming listing of domestic rapeseed in June and uncertainties in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [11] 4. Fundamental Data - Rapeseed import arrivals in June are lower than expected, and import costs are strongly oscillating [18] - Oil mill rapeseed inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, while rapeseed meal inventory has slightly declined [21] - Oil mill rapeseed crushing volume has slightly increased [23] - Aquatic fish prices are slightly fluctuating, while shrimp and shellfish prices are stable [31] - The rapeseed meal market is oscillating and rising, with spot prices firming up, and the spot discount remaining at a relatively high level [33] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continues to narrow, and the price difference of the 2509 contract remains oscillating [37] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8] 6. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal is oscillating and rising, and is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short and medium term. Future changes in China - Canada trade relations and the follow - up impact of the Sino - US tariff war will affect the market [42] - The KDJ indicator is oscillating near a high level, and the short - term market is strongly oscillating, but the upward space may be limited [42] - The MACD is oscillating and rising at a low level, but the red energy is narrowing, and the short - term market is strongly oscillating. The follow - up trend depends on rapeseed import policies and the influence of soybean meal [42] 7. Next Week's Focus - The most important factors are the planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrivals and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45] - The second - most important factors are domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the rapeseed meal inventory in domestic oil mills and downstream purchasing [46] - Other important factors include macro - factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [46]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年6月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格坚挺，矿山挺价，镍铁价格走弱，减产预期加强，倒逼 矿价的可能性更大，不锈钢交易所仓单持续流入现货，库存有所增加。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格13537.5，基差987.5，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：118383，-602，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、结论：不锈钢2508：震荡偏弱运行。 多空因素 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价偏弱运行，成交一般，下游刚需采购为主。产业链上，矿价继续坚挺，主要矿山 挺价，但镍铁价格继续下行，国内镍铁企业亏损程度进一步扩大，减产预期加强，倒逼矿价的可能性更 大。不锈钢交易所仓单继续流出， ...

Group 1 - The USDA's latest supply and demand report indicates that Malaysia's palm oil production for the 2025/26 season is projected at 19.5 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons from last month's estimate and 100,000 tons year-on-year [1] - Exports are expected to reach 16.1 million tons, up by 300,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [1] - Domestic consumption is projected at 3.635 million tons, slightly up by 50,000 tons from last month but down 4% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The ending stock is expected to be 2.194 million tons, an increase of approximately 200,000 tons from last month and slightly higher than last year's 2.18 million tons [1] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures notes that the increase in palm oil production may slow down, while export demand remains strong, with a significant rise in India's palm oil imports in May [2] - Ningzheng Futures states that the MPOB report aligns with expectations, indicating a neutral overall data trend, with domestic palm oil inventory increasing week-on-week [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 0.70%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. The supply - demand situation of rebar remained weak on both sides. Although supply contraction led to inventory reduction, demand was also weak, and the fundamentals did not improve. With low inventory and few real - world contradictions, it was expected that rebar would continue to oscillate at a low level during the off - season [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated downward, with a daily decline of 0.87%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil remained weak. Supply slightly contracted from a high level but the pressure persisted, and demand was weakly stable. With inventory continuously increasing and the Sino - US trade risk easing, it was expected that the price of hot - rolled coil would continue to oscillate at a low level [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a low level, with a daily decline of 0.21%, and both volume and open interest contracted. Although the repair of pessimistic expectations drove the discounted ore price to oscillate upward, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation led to a weak fundamental performance of iron ore. The upward driving force was not strong, and it was expected that the ore price would maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London from June 9th to 10th. Both sides reached a principle agreement on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns [6]. - Shanghai Minhang initiated the first project of purchasing existing commercial housing for affordable rental housing. The practice originated from the monetized construction mechanism of affordable housing [7]. - Roy Hill and Atlas Iron in Australia planned to merge into Hancock Iron Ore on July 1st. Roy Hill exported about 64 million tons of iron ore to the Asian market annually, and Atlas Iron mined and exported about 10 million tons annually [8]. Spot Market - For steel products, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,060 yuan, down 20 yuan; in Tianjin it was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; and the national average was 3,234 yuan, down 2 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; in Tianjin it was 3,110 yuan, down 20 yuan; and the national average was 3,244 yuan, down 5 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,920 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 yuan, up 20 yuan. The coil - rebar spread was 140 yuan, up 20 yuan, and the rebar - scrap spread was 960 yuan, down 40 yuan [9]. - For iron ore, the price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 720 yuan, down 5 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 722 yuan, down 5 yuan. The freight from Australia was 9.55 yuan, down 0.13 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.33 yuan, down 0.07 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 95.80 yuan, up 0.50 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 95.75 yuan, up 0.80 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,968 yuan, with a decline of 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,312,653 lots, a decrease of 202,202 lots, and the open interest was 2,220,025 lots, an increase of 55,793 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,080 yuan, with a decline of 0.87%. The trading volume was 490,001 lots, a decrease of 108,817 lots, and the open interest was 1,566,756 lots, an increase of 3,326 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 704.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.21%. The trading volume was 256,930 lots, a decrease of 90,128 lots, and the open interest was 716,699 lots, a decrease of 12,525 lots [13]. Related Charts - The report presented charts on steel and iron ore inventories (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore at ports and in mines), as well as charts on steel mill production (such as blast furnace operating rates, capacity utilization rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills) [15][29]. Market Outlook - For rebar, supply and demand continued to decline. Weekly production decreased by 108,900 tons, and inventory decreased. However, due to good profit per ton, the sustainability of production reduction was uncertain. Demand continued to weaken seasonally, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 124,000 tons. It was expected to continue oscillating at a low level during the off - season [38]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. Although production decreased by 41,000 tons week - on - week, it was still at a high level. Demand was weakly stable, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 10,400 tons. With the Sino - US trade negotiation making progress, it was expected to continue oscillating at a low level [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern was weakly stable. Terminal consumption was weakly stable, but demand was expected to weaken during the off - season. Domestic port arrivals continued to rise, and overseas shipments were at a high level. The ore price was under pressure and was expected to oscillate at a low level [40].

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-06-12 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11035 | -190 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 21103 | -1662 | | | 合成橡胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 190 | 10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 5470 | -100 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11550 | -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 11450 | -50 | | | | 11450 | -50 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 11, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2507 closed at 34,255 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.72%. Industrial silicon also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2507 closing at 7,560 yuan/ton and an intraday increase of 2.23% [2]. - With the full - scale reduction of hydropower prices in the southwest region and the continuous decline of silicon coal and electrodes, the cost center of industrial silicon has been continuously adjusted downwards. The operating level of silicon plants during the wet season has been reduced to the limit, and there are few variables on the demand side, so industrial silicon has stopped falling in the short term. Polysilicon has continued to reduce its load comprehensively, and there is still a possibility of expanding the production - restriction quota through industry self - discipline in the future. A new round of order signing has been completed, but the volume is limited, and from the perspective of spot trading, low - grade products are more resistant to price drops than high - grade products. Polysilicon remains weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon: The main contract 2507 closed at 34,255 yuan/ton, up 0.72% intraday, with a position reduction of 2,509 lots to 60,199 lots. The SMM N - type polysilicon material price was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest - delivery N - type polysilicon material remained stable at 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 2,245 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon: The main contract 2507 closed at 7,560 yuan/ton, up 2.23% intraday, with a position reduction of 8,591 lots to 147,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot from Baichuan was 8,750 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. The price of the lowest - delivery 553 grade dropped to 7,600 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 125 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: - Futures settlement price: The main contract increased from 7,395 yuan/ton on June 10 to 7,475 yuan/ton on June 11, up 80 yuan/ton. The near - month contract also increased by 80 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various grades remained mostly stable. The spot premium narrowed from 205 yuan/ton to 125 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipt decreased by 578 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 13,400 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: - Futures settlement price: The main contract increased from 33,955 yuan/ton on June 10 to 34,255 yuan/ton on June 11, up 300 yuan/ton, while the near - month contract decreased by 135 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various grades remained stable. The spot premium narrowed from 2,545 yuan/ton to 2,245 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 120 tons, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 60,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 100 tons [3]. - **Downstream**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices**: Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][5][7]. - **Downstream Finished Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][15][18]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, and total social inventory), DMC, and polysilicon [19][23][24]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, and the cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][26][28]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and a medium - level gold investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Although the supply of lead ore is relatively tight, it is the off - season for consumption, leading to poor downstream enterprise operations. Some smelting enterprises are resuming production, and it is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies in the range of 16,950 yuan/ton - 16,980 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On June 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.55 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead price in different regions also remained stable, and the lead scrap price was unchanged. The lead refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 11, 2025, the opening price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,850 yuan/ton, closing at 16,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 21,724 lots, a decrease of 14,490 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 43,989 lots, an increase of 21 lots. The night - session closing price was 16,855 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase [1] Spot Market Transaction - The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged. In Henan, the transaction was light; in Hunan, some enterprises raised their quotes due to inventory decline and showed a reluctance to sell. The spot market transactions showed significant differences, with some demand shifting to the primary lead market, and downstream enterprises preferred to pick up goods directly from smelters [2] Inventory - On June 11, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 50 tons compared to the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 273,525 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - **Futures Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging on rallies in the range of 16,950 yuan/ton - 16,980 yuan/ton [3] - **Option Strategy**: Put it on hold [3]

Report Date - The report is dated June 12, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various futures commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different trends such as price fluctuations, range - bound trading, and upward or downward trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Inventory reduction restricts price decline. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,290 yuan with a daily increase of 0.52%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,647 dollars with a decline of 0.80%. China's 1 - 5 month cumulative import of copper ore and concentrates increased by 7.4% year - on - year [5][7] - **Aluminum**: Need to pay attention to the progress of Sino - US negotiations. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,250 yuan. Alumina is expected to run weakly, with the Shanghai alumina main contract closing at 2,895 yuan [8] - **Zinc**: Short - term oscillation, with attention to inventory. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,140 yuan with an increase of 1.35%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,975 tons [11] - **Lead**: Range - bound trading. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,845 yuan with a decline of 0.21%. LME lead inventory decreased by 4,500 tons [14] - **Tin**: Stopped falling and rebounded. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 265,530 yuan with an increase of 0.80%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 4,800 yuan compared to the previous day [18] - **Nickel**: The reality support and weak expectation are in a game, and the nickel price oscillates. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 121,790 yuan. Stainless steel: Negative feedback leads to increased production cuts, and the steel price is range - bound. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,600 yuan [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Macroeconomic expectations are volatile, and the fundamentals remain weak. The 2507 contract of carbonate lithium closed at 61,680 yuan [28] - **Industrial Silicon**: The fundamentals are weak, and the upside space is limited. The Si2507 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,560 yuan. Polysilicon: The spot is weak, and the disk has a downward drive. The PS2507 contract of polysilicon closed at 34,255 yuan [31] - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are volatile, and it oscillates within a range. The futures price closed at 707.0 yuan with an increase of 1.22% [34] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, they are in wide - range oscillations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,991 yuan with an increase of 0.67%, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,108 yuan with an increase of 0.78% [37] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon ferrosilicon is in wide - range oscillations due to production cuts in major producing areas. The silicon ferrosilicon 2507 contract closed at 5,298 yuan. Manganese silicon is weakly oscillating as overseas miners' quotes decline. The manganese silicon 2507 contract closed at 5,472 yuan [41] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is in wide - range oscillations. Coking coal is in wide - range oscillations as safety inspections become stricter. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 783.5 yuan with a decline of 0.19%, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1,356 yuan with an increase of 0.52% [46] - **Steam Coal**: Demand is yet to be released, and it is in wide - range oscillations. The ZC2507 contract of steam coal had no trading on the previous day [51] - **Rubber**: Oscillating. The rubber main contract closed at 13,890 yuan during the day session [61] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Supported by strong crude oil, it is in short - term oscillations. The main contract of synthetic rubber (07 contract) closed at 11,225 yuan [65] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are large differences in pressure from the origin, and it is grinding the bottom in oscillations. The palm oil is in a state of range - bound trading with a focus on the pressure from the origin [58] - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force is temporarily weak, and it is in range - bound trading. The soybean oil is currently in a range - bound state with limited driving factors [58] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to good weather and a decline in US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. The soybean meal market was affected by the weather and US soybean prices [60] - **Soybean**: Due to the expectation of provincial reserve sales, the futures price declined. The soybean market was influenced by the expectation of provincial reserve sales [60] - **Corn**: Oscillating strongly. The corn market shows a relatively strong oscillating trend [62] - **Sugar**: Consolidating at a low level. The sugar market is in a low - level consolidation phase [64] - **Cotton**: Continuing to be affected by market sentiment. The cotton market is still under the influence of market sentiment [65] - **Egg**: The negative impact of the plum - rain season has been released, waiting for the confirmation of chicken culling. The egg market is waiting for the impact of chicken culling after the plum - rain season [67] - **Live Pig**: Still waiting for the confirmation of the spot market. The live pig market is awaiting the performance of the spot market [68] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market. The peanut market requires attention to the spot price [69]