1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil in Malaysia is expected to have a record - high production in 2025, pressuring the benchmark price. However, Indonesia's B85 policy provides support. Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise in the short - term but could face resistance below 9000 yuan. For soybeans, the US soybean production cut in the USDA report was less than expected, causing CBOT soybeans to decline. In China, soybean oil inventory is at a high level, and downstream demand is weak, with a possible short - term correction for Dalian soybean oil [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance due to factors like farmers' reluctance to sell and transportation issues, leading to a price rebound. But considering the large supply during the new - season harvest, the upward movement is limited, and attention should be paid to the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. 2.3 Sugar - India's sugar export in the 25/26 season may face short - term difficulties, and Brazil's supply is in a relaxed state. The raw sugar price is expected to fluctuate around 14 cents/pound. The domestic sugar market is likely to remain volatile next week [7][8]. 2.4 Cotton - The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton. Globally, production has increased, and demand has only slightly risen, leading to an increase in ending inventory. In China, new cotton supply is high in the short - term, and downstream demand is weak, but some local products offer support. Short - term cotton prices may be under pressure [9]. 2.5 Meal - The USDA's November supply - demand balance sheet for soybeans met market expectations. There is a lack of substantial positive factors for US soybeans, and China's high soybean inventory and reserve rotation expectations suppress the market. Bean meal is expected to trade in a wide range [11]. 2.6 Eggs - The supply of eggs remains high due to stable laying - hen inventory, and demand is in a seasonal slump. Although the decline in egg prices has slowed, the market is expected to be weak and volatile this week [15]. 2.7 Pigs - The spot price of pigs is weak, but the market may strengthen tomorrow. The overall November pig - selling progress is slow, which may support prices. The market is in a range - bound pattern, with limited upside and downside in the short - term. A 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan, up 0.35% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan, down 0.72%. The basis of Y2601 increased by 36.89% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8590 yuan, up 0.23%. The futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan, down 1.23%. The basis of P2601 increased by 70.33%. The import cost and profit decreased [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan, up 0.29%. The futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan, down 0.52%. The basis of OI601 increased by 28.77% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port fluctuated. The basis increased by 78.57%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.63%. The import profit increased by 5.00% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 decreased slightly. The basis increased by 66.67%. The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged, and the starch - corn 01 spread decreased by 0.31% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 decreased by 0.76%, and sugar 2605 decreased by 0.53%. ICE raw sugar increased by 2.91%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 16.46% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The basis in Nanning and Kunming increased. The import prices of Brazilian sugar decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, while the national sales rate decreased. The industrial inventory in some regions increased [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 decreased by 0.19%, and cotton 2601 decreased by 0.30%. ICE US cotton decreased by 0.68%. The 5 - 1 spread increased by 300.00% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Xinjiang and the CC Index decreased slightly. The basis increased [9]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory, import volume, and some other indicators increased, while textile exports decreased [9]. 3.5 Meal - **Bean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.33%, and the futures price of M2601 increased by 0.68%. The basis decreased by 52.38%. The import crushing margin decreased significantly [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the futures price of RM2601 decreased slightly. The basis increased by 25.00% [11]. - **Soybeans**: The price of the soybean No.1 futures contract increased by 2.08%, and the soybean No.2 futures contract increased by 0.37%. The basis of both decreased [11]. 3.6 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 12 - contract decreased by 0.23%, and the 01 - contract decreased by 0.92%. The 12 - 01 spread increased by 10.22% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price decreased by 0.34%. The basis decreased by 6.54% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: Egg - chick prices remained unchanged, and the egg - feed ratio decreased. The breeding profit decreased [15]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The price of the pig 2605 decreased by 0.33%, and the 2601 decreased by 0.72%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 12.00%. The basis increased by 103.57% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions fluctuated. The daily slaughter volume decreased by 0.74% [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The weekly white - strip price remained unchanged, and the piglet price increased slightly. The self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits decreased [17].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251116 [1] Report Core View - The macro - situation is short - term bearish, the fundamentals are acceptable, and the copper market is in a volatile state [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Copper spot trading improved slightly, and the premium/discount remained stable overall [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium/discount strengthened compared to the previous period [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.17/ton week - on - week to - $42.21/ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 18,200 tons week - on - week to 647,900 tons [19] - The change in the refined scrap price difference was limited week - on - week [22] - The estimated output of electrolytic copper in China in November will decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [25] - From January to October in China, the import volume of copper ore and its concentrates was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [27] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased week - on - week, while the bonded area inventory increased [28] - LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, mainly due to the callback of the previous week's market and the concentrated release of new orders [32] - From November 1st to 9th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 5% year - on - year [34] - In November, the production schedules of domestic component enterprises varied, and the overall production schedule is expected to decline month - on - month [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In October in China, the new social financing was 810 billion yuan, the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - In October in the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for eight consecutive months, while the service PMI reached an eight - month high [43] - Fed officials took a hawkish stance, and the probability of an interest rate cut in December decreased [47]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [2] - L: Bearish rebound [2] - PP: Bearish rebound [2] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Bearish on rallies [4] - Natural Gas (LNG): Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [7] Core Views - The oil market is facing supply - demand imbalances with OPEC+ expansion and the approaching consumption off - season, leading to downward pressure on oil prices. Other energy - chemical products are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory, showing different trends [2][11][17] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On November 14, WTI rose 2.15%, Brent rose 2.19%, and SC rose 0.31%. The latest prices of WTI, Brent, and SC were $59.95/barrel, $64.39/barrel, and $458.9/barrel respectively [9][10] - **Basic Logic**: The off - season leads to supply surplus and accelerated global crude oil inventory accumulation, pressuring oil prices. Geopolitical factors such as the restart of Russia's Novorossiysk port and the uncertainty in South America also impact the market. OPEC and IEA predict an increase in global oil supply in the future, while demand growth is relatively limited. As of the week of November 7, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels [11][12] - **Strategy**: Partially close previous short positions. Focus on the range of SC [450 - 470] [13] LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 14, the PG main contract closed at 4376 yuan/ton, up 1.70% [16] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil. Recently, due to geopolitical disturbances, crude oil has rebounded, but its upward space is limited. The supply of LPG has decreased, and the demand side shows certain resilience. The inventory of ports and factories has been decreasing [17] - **Strategy**: Buy put options. Focus on the range of PG [4300 - 4400] [18] L - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the L2601 contract was 6818 yuan/ton (+30) [21] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has been repaired, and the market has stabilized and rebounded. However, the supply at home and abroad remains loose, and the demand side lacks the motivation to replenish inventory. The medium - term decline risk of oil prices weakens the cost support [22] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rallies to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of L [6800 - 6950] [22] PP - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the PP2601 contract was 6429 yuan/ton (-51) [25] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak, following the cost - end. The upper - middle stream inventory is at a high level, and the demand support is insufficient. OPEC+ is still in the production - increasing cycle, and oil prices may continue to fall in the medium - term [26] - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions in the short - term. Wait for rallies to go short in the long - term. Focus on the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the V2601 contract was 4586 yuan/ton (+5) [29] - **Basic Logic**: The market is in a premium structure, and the warehouse receipts have reached a new high. The short - term macro - policy window period has passed, and the market has returned to weak fundamentals. Although the low valuation provides support, the downward space is limited [30] - **Strategy**: The industry should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling. Focus on the range of V [4500 - 4650] [30] PTA - **Market Performance**: The prices of TA05, TA11, and TA01 were 4762 yuan/ton, 4644 yuan/ton, and 4700 yuan/ton respectively [31] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is generally low. Some new device startups and increased maintenance efforts have alleviated the supply pressure. The downstream demand is relatively good but has a weakening trend. The cost - end PX has reduced its load both at home and abroad. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November - December [32] - **Strategy**: Focus on the opportunity to expand the processing fee (long PTA, short PX). Focus on the range of TA [4680 - 4760] [33] MEG - **Market Performance**: The prices of EG05, EG11, and EG01 were 3922 yuan/ton, 3832 yuan/ton, and 4013 yuan/ton respectively [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based device maintenance has increased, and the start - up load has decreased. Overseas devices have slightly increased their loads. The downstream demand is relatively good but may weaken. The social inventory has slightly increased. The cost - end crude oil is under pressure, while coal prices are expected to rise [35] - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rallies. Focus on the range of EG [3880 - 3950] [36] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned [37] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices. The supply pressure is large, and the demand performance is average. The cost support is weak and stable [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully. Pay attention to the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [39] Urea - **Market Performance**: The prices of UR05, UR09, and UR01 were 1727 yuan/ton, 1748 yuan/ton, and 1652 yuan/ton respectively [42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly weakened. The domestic inventory is still at a high level, but the export has maintained a high growth rate since July. There are upper and lower limits for urea prices under the "export quota system" and "supply - guarantee and price - stability" background [43] - **Strategy**: Be vigilant against the risk of the market falling after rising. Look for opportunities to short on rallies. Focus on the range of UR [1635 - 1665] [44] LNG - **Market Performance**: On November 14, the NG main contract closed at $4.843/million British thermal units, up 2.09% [46] - **Basic Logic**: As the global temperature drops, the demand for natural gas for combustion and heating has increased, supporting gas prices. The domestic LNG retail profit has increased. The supply in some regions has increased, while the overall demand has slightly decreased. The US natural gas inventory has increased [47] - **Strategy**: Although gas prices are likely to rise, the upward space is limited. Focus on the range of NG [4.393 - 4.583] [48] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 14, the BU main contract closed at 3037 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [50] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - end crude oil. As the geopolitical risk is released, the oil price has回调, reducing the cost support. The supply is expected to be relatively sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season [51] - **Strategy**: Continue to hold short positions. Focus on the range of BU [2980 - 3080] [52] Glass - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the FG2601 contract was 1053 yuan/ton (-16) [55] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak, and the market is looking for support downward. The daily melting volume remains stable, and the coal - based process is still profitable, so the supply is unlikely to decline further. The factory inventory is at a high level, and the demand support is insufficient [56] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, cold - repair provides support. In the long - term, the real estate demand is weak, and the market is likely to be short on rallies. Focus on the range of FG [1030 - 1080] [56] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the SA2601 contract was 1239 yuan/ton (+25) [59] - **Basic Logic**: The increase in the daily melting volume of photovoltaic and device maintenance has led to a decline in the high - level warehouse receipts, and the market has stabilized and rebounded in the short - term. The factory inventory has slightly decreased but is still at a high level. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply will remain loose in the long - term [60] - **Strategy**: The industry should sell and hedge at high prices. In the short - term, the technical aspect is bullish, and in the long - term, short on rallies. Focus on the range of SA [1180 - 1230] [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental driver of methanol is downward. In the short - term, methanol remains in a state of high domestic supply, while the MTO industry faces increased fundamental pressure, compressing profit margins and suppressing the upward space of methanol. Under inventory pressure, production profits are squeezed. With the weakening of macro - drivers and the weak industrial chain fundamentals, methanol has been operating weakly recently [4]. - As the processing profit of coal - to - methanol is gradually compressed, the pricing logic weight of the cost side of methanol has slightly increased. The cost center of coal - to - methanol is expected to gradually stabilize. In the future, a decline in inventory caused by production enterprises reducing their operating rates may support prices [4]. - The unilateral center of methanol oscillates downward, with the upper pressure of contract 01 at 2160 - 2170 yuan/ton and the lower support at 2000 - 2020 yuan/ton. For the 1 - 5 month spread, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage at high levels. The spread between MA and PP is in an oscillating pattern [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - The report presents multiple price - related charts, including the basis, monthly spreads (1 - 5, 5 - 9), and the number of warehouse receipts of methanol. It also shows domestic and international spot prices of methanol, as well as port - inland price spreads [7][11][15][18] 3.2 Supply - **New Capacity**: From 2024 - 2025, there have been multiple new methanol production capacity projects in China, with a total expansion of 4000000 tons in 2024 and 8300000 tons in 2025. Internationally, the total expansion was 3550000 tons in 2024 and is expected to be 3300000 tons in 2025 [23]. - **Maintenance**: There are multiple domestic methanol plant maintenance cases, with a total affected capacity of 4700000 tons/year, and a total actual loss of 1893120 tons [26]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: From October 31 - November 6, 2025, China's methanol production was 1992055 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 87.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.36%. It is expected that next week's production will be around 2008400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be around 88.51% [4]. - **Import - related**: The report shows charts of China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit [37][38][39][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report presents the production costs and profits of different methanol production processes in various regions, including coal - to - methanol, coke oven gas - to - methanol, and natural gas - to - methanol [42][43][44][46][47][48][49] 3.3 Demand - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The report shows the capacity utilization rates of various methanol downstream industries, including methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc. [52][53][54][55] - **Downstream Profit**: It shows the production profits of methanol downstream industries such as MTO, formaldehyde, MTBE, and glacial acetic acid in different regions [59][60][63][64][65] - **Procurement Volume**: It includes the procurement volumes of MTO production enterprises in different regions and the raw material procurement volumes of traditional methanol downstream industries in different regions [67][68][69][70][72][73][74][75] - **Raw Material Inventory**: It shows the raw material inventories of traditional methanol downstream industries in different regions [77][78][79][80] 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: The report shows the factory inventories of methanol in China and different regions (East China, Northwest China, Inner Mongolia) [82][83][84][85] - **Port Inventory**: It shows the port inventories of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) [88][89][90]

Group 1: Market Trends - The peak period for the opening of amortized bond funds is from November 2025 to the first half of 2026, with a total opening scale exceeding 400 billion yuan[12] - In December 2025, the opening scale will reach 107.7 billion yuan, and in March 2026, it will exceed 116 billion yuan, primarily focusing on 3-year and 5-year products[12] - The demand for 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds will continue to be released, maintaining a strong short-term performance[14] Group 2: Fund Allocation Changes - The proportion of credit bonds in amortized bond funds has increased significantly, reaching 14.9% by the end of Q3 2025, up from 1.8% at the end of 2024[13] - Bank wealth management has replaced bank proprietary trading as the core incremental funding source, with holdings in amortized bond funds rising from 17.1 billion yuan to 93 billion yuan, a growth of over 5 times[13] - 84% of the increased funding from wealth management is directed towards products with a closed period of 3 years or less, reinforcing the demand for short- to medium-term credit bonds[13] Group 3: Market Structure Differentiation - The credit bond market is experiencing structural differentiation, with medium- to high-grade credit bonds benefiting significantly, while certain bonds are excluded from the amortized bond fund allocation due to SPPI testing[14] - Long-term credit bonds are less favored due to maturity mismatches and profit-taking by banks, while policy financial bonds are seeing reduced compression dynamics due to the shift towards credit bonds[14] - The overall market is characterized by a notable divergence in performance among different bond types[14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly, squeezing smelter profits and potentially reducing supply pressure. Overseas warehouse receipts remain low with high premiums, and domestic inventories are falling, and micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish while the macro background remains positive [4] Key Data Summary Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $128.30/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 40 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,590 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 80 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 13, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,630 yuan/ton, closed at 22,740 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,686 lots, and the position was 102,938 lots. The highest price was 22,760 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,550 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of November 13, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 157,900 tons, down 1,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 37,800 tons, up 1,925 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis Summary - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses. Overseas warehouse receipts are still low, and domestic inventories are falling [4] Strategy Summary - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found. Core View of the Report - Soybean meal is expected to rise in the short - term following the import cost, with the profit from oil extraction recovering, which will stimulate vessel bookings. In the medium - term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is still to sell on rallies [4]. - For palm oil, it is recommended to view it with a sideways perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [8]. - For sugar, it is advisable to wait for the weakening of the rebound momentum and then look for opportunities to short [10]. - Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. - Egg prices are expected to be mainly firm in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upper resistance and wait for opportunities to short [17]. - For live pigs, the current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait for rallies to short [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The USDA has resumed data release and announced the schedule for the soybean sales report. The Brazilian soybean planting rate as of last Thursday reached 61% of the expected level, lower than 67% in the same period last year. In the next two weeks, rainfall in the southeastern part of the Brazilian soybean - producing area will be uneven and scarce, while it will be normal in other areas. The domestic soybean inventory is at the highest level in history, and the soybean meal inventory is large [2]. - **Strategy**: The import cost is mainly in a volatile state. It is expected that soybean meal will rise in the short - term following the import cost, with the profit from oil extraction recovering. In the medium - term, the strategy is still to sell on rallies as the global soybean supply is expected to be loose [4]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: From November 1 - 10, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. The production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, and from November 1 - 10, it decreased by 2.16% compared with the same period last month. India's palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil imports in October all decreased compared with September. Indonesia plans to start road tests on vehicles using biodiesel with a 50% palm oil content in early December and implement the "B50" mandatory measure in the second half of next year. Domestic oils showed a divergent trend on Thursday, with palm oil being weak and rapeseed oil being strong [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to view palm oil with a sideways perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [8]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The production of sugar in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of October is expected to increase by 7.8% to 1.92 million tons. Datagro has lowered its forecast for the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season [9]. - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait for the weakening of the rebound momentum and then look for opportunities to short [10]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. As of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%, showing a decline. On November 12, the Xinjiang machine - picked cotton purchase index remained unchanged, while the hand - picked cotton purchase index decreased [12]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline yesterday. The supply is sufficient, and the market demand is average [15]. - **Strategy**: Egg prices are expected to be mainly firm in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium - term, pay attention to the upper resistance and wait for opportunities to short [17]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: The domestic live pig price continued to decline yesterday. The demand side shows no sign of improvement, and the upstream breeding side is reluctant to sell at low prices [18]. - **Strategy**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait for rallies to short [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Protein Meal**: The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing margin will recover, which will stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still recommended to sell on rebounds [5]. - **Oils**: Palm oil is recommended to be viewed with a range - bound perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [10]. - **Sugar**: After the rebound strength of Zhengzhou sugar fades, look for opportunities to short [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - **Eggs**: In the short term, the price is expected to be relatively strong, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [19]. - **Pigs**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait to sell on rebounds [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable on Wednesday, and the cost of imported soybeans remained unchanged. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 2,990 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL statistics showed that the domestic port soybean inventory exceeded 10 million tons last week. MYSTEEL predicted that the soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1579 million tons, compared with 1.8057 million tons last week [2]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to rise with the import cost, and the crushing margin will recover, which will stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the expectation of a loose global soybean supply remains unchanged, and it is still recommended to sell on rebounds [5]. Oils - **Market Information**: ITS and AMSPEC data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month. SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, and the production from November 1 - 10 decreased by 2.16% compared with the same period last month. The 2025/26 annual rapeseed production in Australia is expected to be 6.3 million tons. Malaysia's 2025 crude palm oil production will increase by 3.4% year - on - year to a record 20 million tons. On Wednesday, the domestic oil prices showed a differentiated trend [7]. - **Strategy**: Palm oil is recommended to be viewed with a range - bound perspective. If there are signals of a decline in production, a bullish approach can be adopted [10]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The survey showed that the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil is expected to increase by 7.8% to 1.92 million tons in the second half of October. Datagro lowered its forecast for the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season to 1 million tons [12]. - **Strategy**: After the rebound strength of Zhengzhou sugar fades, look for opportunities to short [13]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 13,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. As of the week of November 7, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.4%. On November 11, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 6.23 yuan/kg, and the purchase index of hand - picked cotton decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 6.92 yuan/kg [15]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline yesterday. The average price in the main production areas dropped by 0.01 yuan to 2.95 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the market demand was average, and it is expected that today's egg price will be mainly stable with a few narrow adjustments [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the price is expected to be relatively strong, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading. In the medium term, pay attention to the upper pressure and wait to sell on rebounds [19]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly declined yesterday. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.14 yuan to 11.84 yuan/kg, in Sichuan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 11.43 yuan/kg, and in Guangxi dropped by 0.13 yuan to 11.46 yuan/kg. The demand was weak, and it is expected that today's pig price will continue to decline [21]. - **Strategy**: The current strategy first recommends reverse spreads, and second, wait to sell on rebounds [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth shows that the destocking of steel is slower than the seasonal norm, with production - side开工率普遍回升 and demand - side facing various situations such as slow steel destocking and uneven performance in different sectors. - Inflation is characterized by a weak rebound in pig prices at the bottom, along with different price trends in CPI and PPI components [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Steel Destocking Slower than Seasonal Norm 3.1.1 Production: General Increase in Operating Rates - **Power Plant Daily Consumption Seasonal Rebound**: On November 10, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 796,000 tons, up 4.3% from November 3. On November 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 1.879 million tons, up 4.1% from October 30, driven by winter heating and industrial electricity load recovery [4][12]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate Recovered to Pre - Restriction Level**: On November 7, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.2%, up 1.4 percentage points from October 31, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.8%, down 0.8 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 91.9%, up 23.5 percentage points from October 31. However, the subsequent maintenance and production - cut efforts may increase due to weak downstream markets [4][16]. - **Tire Operating Rate Moderately Rebounded**: On November 6, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 65.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from October 30, and that of semi - steel car tires was 73.7%, up 0.3 percentage points. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continued to be strong [4][19]. 3.1.2 Demand: Steel Destocking Slower than Seasonal Norm - **Improvement in New Home Sales in 30 Cities on a Month - on - Month Basis**: From November 1 - 11, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 197,000 square meters, up 65.7% from October, but down compared with the same periods in previous years. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all declined year - on - year [4][24]. - **Weak Start in the Automobile Retail Market**: In November, retail sales were down 19% year - on - year, and wholesale sales were down 22% year - on - year. The high base last year and tightened subsidy policies contributed to the low growth [4][28]. - **Weak Fluctuation in Steel Prices**: On November 11, compared with November 4, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled prices changed by + 0.3%, + 1.4%, - 0.9%, and - 0.4% respectively. Steel destocking was slower than the seasonal norm, with the inventory of five major steel products at 1.075 million tons on November 7, down 2,100 tons from October 31 [4][33]. - **Regional Differentiation in Cement Prices**: On November 11, the national cement price index rose 0.1% from November 4. The prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions showed different trends. The year - on - year decline in cement prices widened [4][34]. - **Weak Decline in Glass Prices**: On November 11, the active glass futures contract price was 1,062 yuan/ton, down 3.7% from November 4. The year - on - year and month - on - month declines in glass prices were significant [4][39]. - **End of Four - Consecutive - Increase and Turn to Decline in Container Shipping Freight Index**: On November 7, the CCFI index rose 3.6% from October 31, while the SCFI index fell 3.6%. The container shipping market is in the traditional off - season, but there may be a replenishment wave in late November and December [4][41]. 3.2 Inflation: Weak Rebound in Pig Prices at the Bottom 3.2.1 CPI: Weak Rebound in Pig Prices at the Bottom - **Weak Rebound in Pig Prices at the Bottom**: On November 11, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.1 yuan/kg, up 0.5% from November 4. Although the supply pressure will be gradually released, the overall consumption environment is still weak [4][47]. - **Moderate Increase in Agricultural Product Price Index**: On November 11, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.5% from November 4. Different agricultural products showed different price trends, with chicken having the highest increase [4][52]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Price Rebound after Decline - **Oil Price Rebound after Decline**: On November 11, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $64.4 and $61.0 per barrel respectively, with Brent down 1.7% and WTI up 0.8% from November 4. Supply - side and demand - side factors jointly affect the oil price [4][55]. - **Moderate Increase in Copper and Aluminum Prices**: On November 11, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum rose 1.7% and 0.2% respectively from November 4. The domestic commodity index's month - on - month decline narrowed [4][59]. - **Mixed Month - on - Month Price Changes in Industrial Products**: Since November, industrial product prices have shown different trends, with some rising and some falling. Most of the year - on - year declines in industrial product prices have converged, except for cement and glass [4][61].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, some devices are restarted, and supply is expected to increase slightly, but due to the expected increase in future domestic supply, the cost of butadiene rubber remains weak. The situation where downstream terminals firmly press prices is difficult to change, and the inventories of producers and trading enterprises may increase slightly. [2] - Last week, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most enterprises will keep production stable this week to meet order needs. It is reported that an individual enterprise has a maintenance plan in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. [2] - The short - term price of the br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,000 - 10,500. [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 190 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 76,397, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,644. [2] - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is 35 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,990 tons, with no week - on - week change. [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan/ton. [2] 3. Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 65.16 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.1 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is at 61.04 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.91 US dollars/barrel. [2] - Naphtha CFR Japan is at 576.75 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 740 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the middle price of butadiene CFR China is 790 US dollars/ton; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 6,975 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 75 yuan/ton. [2] - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 155,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 70.32%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.26 percentage points. [2] - The port inventory of butadiene is 29,800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 52.45%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,300 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 65.85%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points. [2] - The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 539 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 118 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 29,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. [2] - The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,770 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,430 tons; the trader's inventory is 3,520 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 160 tons. [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.67%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.26 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.46%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.12 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 2.19 million pieces. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.2 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.23 days. [2] 5. Industry News - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. [2] - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 137,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, or 5.52% month - on - month and 24.07% year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. In October, the output and capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber declined slightly. [2] - As of November 6, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous period, or a 5.15% week - on - week decrease. [2]