农产品日报 | 2025-07-16 近期市场资讯，苹果产区交易多按需进行，客商拿货仍显谨慎，多挑拣拿货。西部部分冷库水烂点货源面积扩大， 部分持货商开始存急售心理，部分现货商发自存货源，早熟果目前仍以大荔、运城等地晨阳、华硕、秦阳为主， 整体上量有限，对行情影响不大。山东产区仍以发市场为主，价格小幅松动后走货依旧不快。销区市场走货一般， 消暑类水果存在冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。山 东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.8-3.5元/斤，80#一二级条纹4.0-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.5-4.0 元/斤。 市场分析 昨日苹果期价收涨，产区库存交易相对稳定，西部产区客商询价增多，后续关注早熟果上市情况。上周全国主产 区走货速度环比前周变动不大，同比去年同期仍较慢，当前库存仍处于近五年低值。产区方面，周内晚富士市场 表现整体稳中偏弱，交易清淡。产区客商调货心态谨慎，按需发自存货源为主，实际成交量有限。分产区来看， 上周山东产区部分持货商及果农略有急售心理，周内好货变动不大，一般及以下货源价格小幅下 ...

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-07-16 上半年经济稳步增长 ——中国 2025 年 6 月经济数据图景 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 7 月 15 日国家统计局数据显示，初步核算，上半年国内生产总值 660536 亿元，按不变 价格计算，同比增长 5.3%。分产业看，第一产业增加值 31172 亿元，同比增长 3.7%； 第二产业增加值 239050 亿元，增长 5.3%；第三产业增加值 390314 亿元，增长 5.5%。 分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长 5.4%，二季度增长 5.2%。从环比看，二季度 国内生产总值增长 1.1%。 核心观点 通货膨胀：6 月 CPI 同比由降转涨 0.1%，结束连续 4 个月下降趋势。CPI 整体呈现 "能 源拖弱、食品分化、工业品与服务双驱动" 特征，需警惕猪肉产能过剩及 PPI 工业通缩 向消费端传导的风险。6 月 PPI 同比降幅扩大至 3.6%，环比降 0.4%。上半年 PPI 呈现 "内需疲软拖累加深、新旧动 ...

内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤425元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润650元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1975元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差189元/吨（+10），内蒙南线1970元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2283元/吨（-3），鲁 南基差97元/吨（+8）；河南2170元/吨（-10），河南基差-16元/吨（+0）；河北2175元/吨（+0），河北基差49元/吨（+10）。 隆众内地工厂库存356900吨（+4620），西北工厂库存228000吨（+4500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单221240吨（-12010）， 西北工厂待发订单100000吨（-10400）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2385元/吨（+5），太仓基差-1元/吨（+15），CFR中国277美元/吨（+4），华东进口价差-52元/ 吨（-22），常州甲醇2390元/吨；广东甲醇2400元/吨（+0），广东基差14元/吨（+10）。隆众港口总库存718900吨 （+45240），江苏港口库存395000吨（+62000），浙江港口库存175500吨（-1000），广东港口库存112000吨（-8500）； 下游MTO开工率85.1 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-16 基本面维持供需宽松格局 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7221元/吨（-63），PP主力合约收盘价为7015元/吨（-52），LL华北现货为7190 元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7230元/吨（-40），PP华东现货为7080元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为-31元/吨（+53），LL 华东基差为9元/吨（+23）， PP华东基差为65元/吨（+32）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为77.8%（-1.7%），PP开工率为76.6%（-0.8%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为172.1元/吨（+88.6），PP油制生产利润为-237.9元/吨（+88.6），PDH制PP生产利 润为192.5元/吨（-38.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-133.0元/吨（+0.3），PP进口利润为-648.1元/吨（-19.7），PP出口利润为31.2美元/吨（+2.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.6%（+0.5%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.1%（-0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.0%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.6% ...

Research Views Corn - Corn futures on the September contract first rose and then fell on Tuesday, closing with a small negative line. Last week, the main corn contract broke through support and declined rapidly, with futures significantly at a discount to spot prices. On Monday, this attracted buying, driving up the futures price. Over the weekend, corn prices in Northeast China declined, and in North China, prices continued to fall due to high arrivals at deep - processing plants and enterprises' price - cutting purchases. Traders sold actively to realize profits, and the market supply was relatively abundant. With continuous import corn auctions and poor trading results, the market's bullish sentiment weakened. Technically, the September contract should pay attention to the price pressure in the previous intensive trading area of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton, and the recommendation is to continue shorting after the rebound ends. The view is bearish [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans fell on Tuesday due to good growth of US soybeans. The crop report showed that the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans increased to 70%, 4 percentage points higher than last week and higher than the market expectation of 67%. NOPA data indicated that the US soybean crush volume in June was 185.709 million bushels, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 5.8% year - on - year increase. US soybean oil inventory dropped to 1.366 billion pounds, a 0.5% month - on - month and 15.8% year - on - year decline. In the domestic market, oil mills maintained a high operating rate, but terminal demand was weak, and soybean meal inventory accumulated rapidly. Some factories either suspended spot quotes or adopted a price - supporting strategy. The market is closely watching the development of Sino - US relations and the fourth - quarter oilseed procurement. The view is oscillating weakly, and it is recommended to hold long spreads for the September - January and January - May contracts of soybean meal [1]. Fats and Oils - BMD palm oil fell 2% on Tuesday due to profit - taking and weak export data. High - frequency data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 5.3% - 6.2% compared with the same period last month, indicating weakening export demand. The decline in crude oil prices also exerted pressure on palm oil. India's palm oil imports in June reached an 11 - month high. In the domestic market, the fats and oils market continued to oscillate, with palm oil and soybean oil slightly rising and rapeseed oil slightly falling. The decline in overseas fats and oils prices led to profit - taking by long positions. The spot demand for soybean oil was strong, and inventory was accumulating. Palm oil inventory increased steadily due to low arrivals, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased, but the improvement in rapeseed crushing margins limited the price of rapeseed oil. It is recommended to conduct intraday trading for single - side positions and hold long spreads for the September - January contracts [1]. Eggs - On Tuesday, the main egg contract shifted from August to September. The August 2025 contract continued to oscillate, closing down 0.38%, while the September 2025 contract rebounded slightly from a low level, closing up 0.36% at 3615 yuan/500 kg. Spot prices remained flat. Terminal demand was normal, and most traders bought and sold in line with the market. After the plum - rain season, eggs will gradually enter the peak demand season, but considering supply pressure, the expected price peak will be lower than last year. With the contract roll - over, the September contract rebounded slightly from a low level, and its subsequent performance should be monitored. The view is oscillating [1][2]. Pigs - On Tuesday, the main pig contract for September 2025 first rebounded in the morning and then declined, closing down 0.25% at 14,250 yuan/ton. The average daily price of live pigs in China was 14.54 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day. In the benchmark delivery area of Henan, the average price increased by 0.04 yuan/kg, while prices in Guangdong remained flat, and those in Shandong, Sichuan, and Liaoning decreased slightly. Farmers' selling enthusiasm was fair, but downstream orders were weak, and slaughterhouses were operating at a loss. With supply slightly exceeding demand, pig prices continued to decline. In the short term, the fundamental situation remains unchanged, and the view is that pig prices will oscillate. Attention should be paid to the impact of feed prices and market sentiment on futures prices [2]. Market Information - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the conditions of US crops mostly improved in the past week. As of the week ending July 13, the good - to - excellent rate of corn remained at 74%, that of soybeans increased by 4 percentage points to 70%, and that of spring wheat increased by 4 percentage points to 54%. Analysts expect favorable weather conditions for crops to continue [3]. - Shipping survey agencies ITS and Amspec reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased by 6.16% and 5.29% respectively compared with the same period last month [3]. - A US Bank survey of global fund managers in July showed that 47% of respondents expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, about one - third expect one cut, 10% think the rate will remain unchanged, 8% expect three cuts, and only 1% predict more than three cuts [3]. - The Minister of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China emphasized at a meeting on July 15 the need to achieve the annual grain output target of about 1.4 trillion catties, strengthen high - standard farmland construction, and prevent disasters [4]. - The IMEA reported that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state, Brazil, from July 7 - 11 was 443.58 reais/ton, down from 458.28 reais/ton in the previous week. The state's soybean meal price was 1482.06 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 5879.53 reais/ton [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis charts, including those for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads and basis is provided in the given text [5][6][8][9][12][13][14][20][24][25].

纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-174元/吨（+50）。纯苯港口库存16.40万吨（-1.00万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费148美元/ 吨（-7美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费130美元/吨（-8美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差147.0美元/吨（+4.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-55元/吨（+20元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1895元/吨（-5），酚酮生产利润-631元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润-171元/吨（-305）， 己二酸生产利润-1423元/吨（-55）。己内酰胺开工率95.72%（+0.00%），苯酚开工率78.00%（-0.50%），苯胺开工率 70.90%（+1.66%），己二酸开工率65.70%（+1.40%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差175元/吨（-62元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润23元/吨（-204元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存138500吨（+27000吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存45000吨（+6000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率79.2%（-0.8%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润310元/吨（+198元/吨），PS生产利润-190元/吨 ...

7月15日，IDC发布初步数据显示，2025年第二季度中国智能手机市场出货量为6900万部，同比下降 4.0%。华为出货量1250万部，以18.1%的市场份额重回首位；vivo（1190万部）、OPPO（1070万部）、 小米（1040万部） 、苹果（960万部）分列二至五位。此前，中国信通院在月初发布的数据显示，5月 份国内市场智能手机出货量为2252.6万部，同比下降21.2%，占同期手机出货量的95%；1-5月，智能手 机出货量为1.09亿部，同比下降4.9%，占同期手机出货量的92.3%。 | Company | 2025Q2 Shipments | 2025Q2 Market Share | 2024Q2 Shipments | 2024Q2 Market Share | YOY Growth | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. Huawei | 12.5 | 18.1% | 12.9 | 18.0% | -3.4% | | 2. vivo | 11.9 | 17.3% | 13.3 | 18.5% | -10.1% | | 3. OPPO | ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-16 多空因素交织，板块整体震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13850元/吨，较前一日变动-25元/吨，幅度-0.18%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15286元/吨，较前一日变动+4元/吨，现货基差CF09+1436，较前一日变动+29；3128B棉全国均价15302元/吨， 较前一日变动+7元/吨，现货基差CF09+1452，较前一日变动+32。 近期市场资讯，截止7月13日，美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花现蕾率为61%，较去年同期慢1个百分点；近五年同期 平均水平在62%，较近五年同期平均水平慢1个百分点。美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花结铃率为23%，较去年同期 慢3个百分点；近五年同期平均水平在22%，较近五年同期平均水平慢1个百分点。美棉15个棉花主要种植州棉花优 良率为54%，较去年同期高9个百分点，较五年均值高8个百分点。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续震荡。国际方面，7月USDA供需报告上调全球棉花产量及期末库存，调整方向偏空。目前来看 今年供应端天气的叙事性不足，考虑到巴西和中国的增产预期，25/26年度全球棉市仍将处于供应 ...

策略 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-16 近月仓单博弈较大，碳酸锂盘面振幅加剧 市场分析 2025年7月15日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于66140元/吨，收于66660元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价上升0.21%。当 日成交量为764028手，持仓量为342146手，较前一交易日减少14015手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳1760 元/吨。所有合约总持仓622936手，较前一交易日减少12117手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少303785手，成 交量926362，整体投机度为1.49。当日碳酸锂仓单11203手，较上个交易日减少1手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月15日电池级碳酸锂报价6.38-6.6万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.025万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.28-6.38万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.025万元/吨。根据SMM调研，受长协订单覆盖及客供比 例较高等因素影响，下游企业对现行市场价格接受度较低，采购需求持续疲软。上游锂盐企业虽已出现试探性调 价举措，但成交主要集中于贸易商环节。从市场成交情况来看，当前实际成交仍以贸易商为主导。 整体来看，仓单注销 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-16 马士基WEEK31周运价沿用，马士基8月份新增两艘加班船 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹31周价格为1855/3110；HPL 7月下半月船期报价2035/3335，8月上半月船 期报价2235/3535。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹7月份下半月船期报价2060/3440；ONE7月下半月船期报价2604/3343； HMM上海-鹿特丹7月下半月船期报价1915/3400; YML7月下半月船期报价降至1800/3100。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹7月下半月船期报价2035/3645，8月份船期报价2585/4745，8月下半月船期报价 3085/5245；EMC 7月下半月船期报价介于3300-3660美元/FEU；OOCL 7月下半月船期报价2100/3500。 地缘端： 也门胡塞武装15日宣布，其部队出动3架无人机对以色列两地实施"同步"军事行动，成功达成既定目标。 也门胡塞武装发言人叶海亚·萨雷亚当天通过该组织控制的马西拉电视台发表声明说，军事行动中 ...