Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The steel market's supply and demand may shift from weak to strong as the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches. The focus in the next two weeks is to observe the steel's apparent demand, and the futures price valuation is neutral [2]. - The short - term trading style of the double - silicon market changes rapidly, following the black sector. Fundamentally, the industry's profit has recovered, supply is increasing, and demand may be under pressure, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is oscillating. Although the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, the downside of the futures market may be limited. There are opportunities for mid - line low - position long - position layout [5]. - Guinea's policy affects the market's expectation of iron ore supply increment. The short - term upward breakthrough of iron ore prices allows early low - position long - positions to take profit. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - On September 10, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were presented. The current futures price valuation is neutral, and the basis is briefly favorable for end - users' buying hedging. The market is waiting for the performance of this week's apparent demand [1][2]. - The trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and close the cash - and - carry arbitrage [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the double - silicon market follows the black sector. The industry's profit has recovered, supply is increasing, and terminal demand may be difficult to improve significantly, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [3]. - Industrial customers are advised to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - On September 10, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of coking coal and coke and their changes were shown. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, but the futures market's previous low may have priced in 2 - 3 rounds of cuts. The downside may be limited. Mid - line investors can consider low - position long - position layout based on last week's low [1][5][7]. Iron Ore - Guinea's policy affects the market's expectation of iron ore supply increment. The iron ore price has broken through upward, and early low - position long - positions can take profit. In September, there is support from the demand side due to pre - holiday restocking. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below [6]. - The trading strategy is to continue the low - position long - position idea [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report predicts that domestic cotton futures prices will continue to fluctuate before a large amount of new cotton hits the market. The domestic supply of old - crop cotton is tight, and demand is marginally improving. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 13,835 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price was 19,870 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 26,540 lots, an increase of 8,105 lots; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions were - 105 lots, a decrease of 64 lots [2]. - The main contract's cotton position was 502,476 lots, down 2,390 lots; the main contract's cotton yarn position was 22,143 lots, down 626 lots [2]. - The cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 5,159 sheets, down 163 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity was 91 sheets, an increase of 1 sheet [2]. 现货市场 - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,249 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 20,745 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,319 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count was 21,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding tax) was 14,176 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn for pure - combed 32 - count fine - combed was 22,814 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,496 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan; the national industrial cotton inventory was 870,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 50,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - The profit of imported cotton was 1,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82 yuan; the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 0.7081 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, a decrease of 0.69 days; the gray fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, a decrease of 1.1 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output was 2.7 billion meters, a decrease of 0.079 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 1.9915 million tons, a decrease of 0.0735 million tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, a decrease of 10.4955 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, a decrease of 44.4198 million US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 11.25%, an increase of 0.16%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 11.28%, an increase of 0.2% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.82%, a decrease of 0.75%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 6.88%, an increase of 0.06% [2]. Industry News - As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,472 lots, an increase of 3,012 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 118,684 lots, an increase of 13,618 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 48,212 lots, an increase of 10,606 lots from the previous week [2]. - At the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 0.7081 million tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34% [2]. International Situation - ICE cotton futures rose to near a two - week high on Wednesday, boosted by the weakening US dollar. The ICE December cotton futures contract rose 0.21 cents, or 0.32%, to settle at 66.67 cents per pound [2]. - The USDA's report shows that the estimated cotton output in Brazil for the 2025/26 season is revised up to 18.1 million bales (about 3.94 million tons), a 1.6% increase from the initial forecast and a 6.5% increase from the 2024/25 season, mainly due to the expansion of the planting area [2]. Domestic Situation - The domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, and imports have decreased significantly year - on - year. Before the new cotton is listed, the supply is tightening [2]. - The market has certain expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season. As of now, the operating load of mainstream spinning enterprises is around 60%, a significant increase from the previous period, and peak - season orders are slowly recovering [2].

Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View Steel prices are maintaining a weak trend, with the demand for steel remaining at a low level during the off - season and showing no signs of recovery. Steel inventories are accumulating at a low price level from August to September. There is an expectation that the demand will pick up during the peak season, and the inventory accumulation will slow down. The steel supply - demand situation has not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage. Future steel prices will mainly follow the supply - side expectations of coking coal. For trading, focus on the support levels of 3100 for the January contract of rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions (East China, North China, South China) and futures contract prices (05, 10, 01) all showed a downward trend, with a decline of 10 yuan/ton for most spot prices and 1 - 14 yuan/ton for futures contract prices [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar remained stable. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, North China hot - rolled coils increased by 20, and South China hot - rolled coils increased by 10. The profits of rebar in different regions showed different trends, with North China's rebar profit decreasing by 10 [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 11.1 to 229.0, a decline of 4.6%. The output of the five major steel products decreased by 24.0 to 860.7, a decline of 2.7%. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 32.8 to 1500.7, a rise of 2.2%. The rebar inventory increased by 16.6 to 640.0, a rise of 2.7%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.9 to 374.3, a rise of 2.4% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 9.3, a decline of 8.3%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 29.9 to 827.8, a decline of 3.5%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View As of the close of trading yesterday afternoon, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a stable and volatile trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume has significantly declined from its annual high, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. It is expected that the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. The sharp decline in shipments is mainly due to the decline in Brazilian shipments. On the demand side, after the major events ended, the pig iron output will significantly increase this week, and the steel mills' restocking demand will increase. It is expected that both supply and demand will pick up this week. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has slightly increased, the cargo clearance volume has decreased, and the steel mills' equity ore inventory has decreased. In the future, due to the relatively high profitability of steel mills, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. Pay attention to the production control situation of steel mills in the fourth quarter. For trading strategies, iron ore is still in a tight - balanced pattern, with a bullish view on the single - side volatility, and the range is between 780 - 830. It is recommended to buy on dips for the iron ore 2601 contract and reduce the long - iron - ore and short - coking - coal arbitrage [3]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore varieties (Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, Jinbuba fines) all decreased by 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.4%. The basis of the 01 contract for different varieties has increased significantly, with an increase of 41.7 - 41.8 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.6%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.6%, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port (Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, Jinbuba fines) all decreased by 3 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.3 - 0.4%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap increased by 1.5 to 106.8, a rise of 1.4%, and the Jinshi 62% Fe increased by 2 to 107.7, a rise of 1.8% [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 78.0 to 2448.0, a decline of 3.1%. The global shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a decline of 22.5%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3, a decline of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8, a decline of 4.7%. The 45 - port daily average cargo clearance volume decreased by 0.9 to 317.8, a decline of 0.3%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 110.8 to 7079.7, a decline of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decline of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, a rise of 0.2%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 67.3 to 9007.2, a decline of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1 to 21, a rise of 5.0% [3]. Report on the Coking Coal and Coke Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core View As of the close of trading yesterday afternoon, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. The spot auction prices were stable to weak, and the Mongolian coal quotes were weak. The coke futures showed a volatile rebound trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. After the first - round price cut of coke spot, it remained stable, and the port trade quotes followed the futures. In the future, as the coking profit improves and the production restrictions are lifted, the supply of coke will gradually become more abundant, with an expected 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts. The coking coal price may continue to decline in September. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take profits on short positions for both coking coal and coke, with a neutral view on the volatility. The trading range for coke is 1550 - 1650, and for coking coal is 1070 - 1170. Reduce the long - iron - ore and short - coking - coal/coke arbitrage, and pay attention to the risks of large price fluctuations [5]. Summary by Directory Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal contracts (01, 05) decreased, with the 01 contract decreasing by 7 yuan/ton and the 05 contract decreasing by 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract increased by 7 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract increased by 10 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 8 to 424, a decline of 1.9% [5]. Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke contracts (01, 05) increased, with the 01 contract increasing by 6 yuan/ton and the 05 contract increasing by 7 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract decreased by 6 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton. The steel - union coking profit decreased by 11 to - 24 [5]. Overseas Coal Prices and Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price increased by 0.1 to 201, a rise of 0.1%. The Jingtang Port Australian prime coking coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 70 to 1560, a decline of 4.5%. The Guangzhou Port Australian steam coal ex - warehouse price decreased by 4.7 to 739, a decline of 0.64% [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3, a decline of 0.34%. The raw coal output decreased by 43.1 to 860.5, a decline of 5.0%, and the clean coal output decreased by 25.4 to 444.5, a decline of 5.74% [5]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.2 to 228.8, a decline of 4.74%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3, a decline of 0.34% [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 7.8 to 895.3, a rise of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.2 to 66.5, a rise of 1.8%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 13.6 to 623.7, a rise of 2.2%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 41.2 to 967.3, a decline of 4.34%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 16.1 to 811.9, a decline of 2.04% [5]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 4.9 to - 0.8 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC fluctuates mainly with macro - sentiment. Supply is expected to increase, demand remains weak, exports are expected to decline in Q4, inventory is accumulating, and there is still room to compress chlor - alkali profits. The short - term trend is macro - led, and policy progress needs attention [3]. - Caustic soda spot prices are stable with a slight decline. Supply increases, demand from major downstream industries varies, and cost support remains. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment rhythms and Guangxi alumina production start - up [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,857 yuan/ton (+10), the East China basis is - 207 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China basis is - 97 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Spot price: East China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,650 yuan/ton (+0), and South China calcium carbide method is quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (+50), the calcium carbide profit is - 14 yuan/ton (+50), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 421 yuan/ton (-22), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 671 yuan/ton (-43), and the PVC export profit is 14.7 dollars/ton (+1.7) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: PVC factory inventory is 31.6 million tons (+0.4), social inventory is 53.3 million tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide method operation rate is 77.65% (+2.41%), the ethylene method operation rate is 72.59% (+3.93%), and the overall operation rate is 76.18% (+2.85%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.1 million tons (-2.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,576 yuan/ton (+7), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 143 yuan/ton (-7) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda is 1,360 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 824.5 yuan/ton (-120.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 542.53 yuan/ton (-70.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,418.45 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.78 million tons (+0.83), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 million tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda operation rate is 84.20% (+1.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 84.38% (-1.20%), the dyeing operation rate in East China is 65.63% (+0.90%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 87.10% (+1.08%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Domestic PVC plant overhauls continue to decrease, and supply is expected to increase. With new production capacity coming on - stream, supply remains abundant [3]. - Demand: Downstream product operation rates remain low, with enterprises making rigid purchases. Attention should be paid to downstream raw material replenishment willingness during the peak season. Export orders and deliveries decline, and Q4 export expectations weaken due to Indian policies [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory level is high. Futures warehouse receipts are rising, and hedging pressure suppresses prices [3]. - Profit: There is still room to compress chlor - alkali profits, and supply - demand remains weak. "Anti - involution" affects the market, and the short - term market is macro - led [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The operation rate of chlor - alkali enterprises increases slightly and is at a high level [3]. - Demand: The purchase price of Shandong's main downstream alumina factories is stable, and delivery volume is rising. Attention should be paid to purchase prices and pre - holiday stocking demand. Non - aluminum downstream operation rates increase, with rigid purchases [3]. - Cost: Shandong's electricity price increases slightly in September, and downstream resistance emerges after the reduction of liquid chlorine subsidies. It is expected that liquid chlorine subsidies will increase, and cost support remains [3]. - Profit: Chlor - alkali profits are at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment [4]. - Inter - delivery: Recommend gradually building long positions in the positive spread when V01 - 05 is below - 300 [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread on dips [4]. - Inter - commodity: None [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy changes in Beijing's real estate market have led to a significant increase in sales activity, particularly in the outer districts, as developers prepare to capitalize on the "Golden September and Silver October" sales season [3][4][13]. Group 1: Market Response to Policy Changes - The new policy allows eligible families to purchase an unlimited number of properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, which has encouraged previously hesitant buyers to make purchases [3][4]. - Following the policy announcement on August 8, there has been a noticeable uptick in property visits and transactions, with new home registrations in Beijing showing a three-week consecutive increase [3][4]. - In August, new residential sales in Beijing reached 2,824 units, a month-on-month increase of 2.3%, while second-hand residential sales totaled 13,119 units, up 4.1% [4]. Group 2: Developer Strategies - Developers are actively launching new projects and marketing campaigns to take advantage of the favorable policy environment, with several companies holding promotional events and opening model homes [2][7]. - Companies like China State Construction and others have reported significant increases in sales volume, with some projects experiencing a doubling of transactions shortly after the policy was implemented [6][9]. - Adjustments to project plans and configurations are also being made to enhance appeal, such as increasing the number of residential units and optimizing layouts [8]. Group 3: Buyer Behavior and Preferences - There is a shift in buyer behavior, with many customers becoming more selective and focused on quality, particularly in terms of amenities like gardens and clubhouses [10][11]. - The demand for properties with high-quality features is evident, as developers are investing in upscale amenities to attract discerning buyers [11][12]. - The market is seeing a mix of buyers, including those looking for specific property types and those returning to the market after previous unsuccessful attempts [9][10].

Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices increased on Wednesday, with WTI October contract closing at $63.67 per barrel, up $1.04, a rise of 1.66%. Brent November contract closed at $67.49 per barrel, also up $1.10, a rise of 1.66% [2] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels as of the week ending September 5. U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [2] - The geopolitical risks are influencing oil prices, leading to fluctuations in the market [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2510 rose by 1.44% to 2827 yuan/ton, while the low-sulfur main contract LU2511 increased by 0.48% to 3383 yuan/ton [3] - An increase in supply from Singapore has been noted, with more low-sulfur fuel oil components flowing from Western markets to Asia [3] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is weakening due to low demand for raw materials ahead of the autumn refinery maintenance season [3] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2510 closed up 0.55% at 3463 yuan/ton. Domestic asphalt inventory levels increased to 27.11%, a rise of 0.66% week-on-week [4] - The operating rate of domestic asphalt plants decreased to 39.59%, down 0.63% week-on-week [4] - The upcoming demand peak in September is expected to ease supply-demand conflicts, potentially leading to further price increases [4] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2601 rose by 40 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, while NR main contract fell by 20 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton [5] - China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons, a decline of 0.57% [5] - The market is expected to remain strong due to stable demand and inventory depletion [5] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4698 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, while EG2601 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [6] - PX main contract closed at 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with spot prices at $838 per ton [6] - The PX supply is recovering, and downstream TA is expected to improve as maintenance is completed [6] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2295 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $261-$265 per ton [7] - Domestic supply is expected to gradually recover as production resumes, while Iranian shipments remain stable [7] - The market is anticipated to reach a temporary bottom as inventory levels peak after mid-month [7] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China PP were between 6750-6960 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [8] - Demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the "golden September and silver October" demand season [8] - The market is transitioning towards a balanced supply-demand scenario, but cost pressures remain [8] PVC - PVC market prices in East China are stabilizing, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4620-4730 yuan/ton [9] - Domestic construction activity is recovering, but overall demand remains weak compared to last year [9] - The market faces high inventory pressure, leading to a gradual compression of production profits [9] Urea - Urea prices continued to trend weakly, with the main contract closing at 1669 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [10] - The supply level remains stable, but demand sentiment is weak, with low sales rates reported [10] - The market is under pressure due to inventory increases and limited new export expectations [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices remained firm, with the main contract closing at 1281 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [12] - The market is stable, with production levels declining due to increased maintenance and equipment changes [12] - Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, but macro sentiment continues to support prices [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed stability, with the main contract closing at 1181 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [13] - The domestic float glass market average price was 1164 yuan/ton, with a slight increase [13] - Demand sentiment remains positive, but no significant improvements in supply-demand balance are observed [13]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating provided in the report. 2) Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [3] -铝锭预计价格短期偏强震荡，关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **成材** -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省6家短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [2] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比下降40.3%，同比增长43.2% [3] -成材昨日震荡下行，价格创新低，供需双弱，市场情绪悲观，冬储低迷，价格重心下移 [3] **铝锭** -昨日铝价偏强震荡，8月美国PPI意外环比下跌，市场预计美联储本月降息25个基点概率为90% [2] -上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业整体开工率环比上升1个百分点至61.7%，各版块复苏态势向好 [3] -9月8日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存63.10万吨，较上周四增长0.5万吨，较上周一上涨0.8万吨 [3] -宏观降息预期即将兑现，当下过渡到金九银十，宏观与基本面利好共振，预计价格支撑力度加大 [4]

沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘小幅反弹，20均线压力较大。产业链上，矿价部分小幅回落，镍铁价格稳中有升，成 本线坚挺。不锈钢库存继续回落，期待金九银十的表现，关注库存变化。新能源汽车产销数据较好，但 三元电池装车量同比下降，总体需求提振受限。短期关注反内卷的再次影响，中长线过剩格局不变。偏 空 2、基差：现货121550，基差700，偏多 3、库存：LME库存221094，+3024，上交所仓单22304，-295，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：震荡运行，下方成本线有支撑。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views Steel - Steel maintains a weak trend, with iron ore and coking coal showing divergent trends. Steel apparent demand remains at a low level in the off - season and has not recovered. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation at low prices from August to September, and the apparent demand is expected to pick up in the peak season, with slower inventory accumulation. The steel supply - demand situation has not deteriorated to the negative feedback stage. Future steel prices will more likely follow the supply - side expectations of coking coal. For the January contract, pay attention to the support levels of 3100 for rebar and 3300 for hot - rolled coils [1] Iron Ore - As of the previous afternoon's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a stable oscillating trend. On the supply side, the global shipment volume of iron ore has dropped significantly from its annual high, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. It is estimated that the subsequent average arrival volume will first increase and then decrease. On the demand side, the steel mill profit margin has slightly declined, and after major events, the hot - metal production will significantly rebound this week, increasing the steel mills' restocking demand. It is expected that supply and demand will recover simultaneously this week. In terms of inventory, port inventory has slightly increased, the port clearance volume has decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' equity iron ore inventory has decreased month - on - month. Looking ahead, due to the still high profit margin of steel mills, hot - metal production will remain at a relatively high level in September, and the low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. The iron ore market is currently in a slightly tight balance, and it is recommended to take a long position on dips for the iron ore 2601 contract and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal arbitrage [3] Coking Coal and Coke - As of the previous afternoon's close, coking coal futures showed an oscillating downward trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. The spot auction price was stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotation was weak. For coke, futures showed an oscillating rebound trend, with sharp price fluctuations recently. After the first round of price cuts in the coke spot market, it has temporarily stabilized, and the port trade quotation follows the futures. On the supply side of coking coal, due to the shutdown of main - producing area coal mines last week, coal mine production decreased significantly month - on - month, but after the end of the parade, production restrictions were lifted, and the main - producing areas gradually resumed production. For coke, due to the previous consecutive price increases, coking profits improved, and northern coking enterprises quickly resumed production after being restricted by major events. On the demand side, the hot - metal production of blast furnaces dropped significantly last week, and steel mills will resume production this week, leading to a rapid rebound in hot - metal production. In terms of inventory, coking plant and steel mill inventories have slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased for coke; for coking coal, last week, coal mines, coal preparation plants, coking plants, and steel mills reduced their inventories, while ports and border crossings slightly increased their inventories. The overall inventory is at a medium - low level. It is recommended to take profit on short positions, treat the market with an oscillating view, and reduce the position of the long - iron - ore short - coking - coal/coke arbitrage [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions have generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton each, and most rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also declined [1] Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar remained unchanged. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils remained unchanged, while the profit of North China hot - rolled coils increased by 20 yuan, and the profit of South China hot - rolled coils increased by 10 yuan. The profit of rebar in different regions showed different changes, with North China's rebar profit decreasing by 10 yuan [1] Production - The daily average hot - metal production decreased by 11.1 to 229.0, a decrease of 4.6%. The production of five major steel products decreased by 24.0 to 860.7, a decrease of 2.7%. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased, with rebar production dropping by 1.9 to 218.7 (a decrease of 0.9%) and hot - rolled coil production dropping by 10.5 to 314.2 (a decrease of 3.2%) [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 32.8 to 1500.7, an increase of 2.2%. The rebar inventory increased by 16.6 to 640.0, an increase of 2.7%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.9 to 374.3, an increase of 2.4% [1] Transaction and Demand - The daily average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.8 to 9.3, a decrease of 8.3%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 29.9 to 827.8, a decrease of 3.5%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased, with rebar's apparent demand dropping by 2.1 to 202.1 (a decrease of 1.0%) and hot - rolled coil's apparent demand dropping by 15.4 to 305.4 (a decrease of 4.8%) [1] Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, with a decrease of about 0.4%. The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore powders increased significantly, for example, the basis of the 01 contract for PB powder increased by 41.7 to 39.7, a significant increase of 2108.3%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.5 to - 66.5 (an increase of 3.6%), the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 2.5 to 42.5 (a decrease of 5.6%), and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [3] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, with a decrease of about 0.3% - 0.4%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increased by 1.5 to 106.8 (an increase of 1.4%), and the Jinshi 62% Fe price increased by 2.0 to 107.7 (an increase of 1.8%) [3] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 78.0 to 2448.0, a decrease of 3.1%. The global shipment volume decreased by 800.6 to 2756.2, a significant decrease of 22.5%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3, a decrease of 1.2% [3] Demand - The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8, a decrease of 4.7%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume decreased by 0.9 to 317.8, a decrease of 0.3%. The national monthly pig - iron production decreased by 110.8 to 7079.7, a decrease of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude - steel production decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8, a decrease of 4.2% [3] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 24.3 to 13849.65, an increase of 0.2%. The import iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 67.3 to 9007.2, a decrease of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 1.0 to 21.0, an increase of 5.0% [3] Coking Coal and Coke Prices and Spreads - For coking coal, the 01 contract price decreased by 7 to 1124, a decrease of 0.6%, and the 05 contract price decreased by 10 to 1205, a decrease of 0.8%. For coke, the 01 contract price increased by 6 to 1603, an increase of 0.3%, and the 05 contract price increased by 7 to 1733, an increase of 0.4% [5] Supply - The weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.2 to 64.3, a decrease of 0.34%. The daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.3 to 228.8, a decrease of 4.7%. The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 43.1 to 860.5, a decrease of 5.0%, and the clean coal production decreased by 25.4 to 444.5, a decrease of 5.74% [5] Demand - The weekly hot - metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 11.2 to 228.8, a decrease of 4.74%. The weekly coke production demand also decreased, with the full - sample coking plant daily average production decreasing by 0.2 to 64.3, a decrease of 0.34% [5] Inventory Changes - For coke, the total inventory increased by 7.8 to 895.3, an increase of 0.9%. The coking plant inventory increased by 1.2 to 66.5, an increase of 1.8%, and the 247 - steel - mill inventory increased by 13.6 to 623.7, an increase of 2.2%. For coking coal, the Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory increased by 6.8 to 116.7, an increase of 5.8%, while the full - sample coking plant inventory decreased by 41.2 to 967.3, a decrease of 4.34%, and the 247 - steel - mill inventory decreased by 16.1 to 811.9, a decrease of 2.04% [5] Supply - Demand Gap - The calculated coke supply - demand gap increased by 4.9 to - 0.8, indicating a slight improvement in the supply - demand situation [5]

Group 1 - The 2025 Haibao Group Autumn Auto Show will officially open on September 11 at the Hainan International Convention and Exhibition Center, featuring multiple automotive brands and significant purchase discounts, with over 80% of the exhibited vehicles being new energy vehicles [2][3] - The auto show is a key driver for automotive sales in Hainan, coinciding with the "Golden September and Silver October" sales peak, as evidenced by a notable improvement in national passenger car sales, which reached approximately 2 million units in August, showing a clear month-on-month increase [2][3] - In Hainan, new energy vehicles accounted for over 60% of new car sales from January to July this year, with some months approaching 70%, reflecting a growing trend in the local automotive market [2][3] Group 2 - The auto show has a history of 19 years since its inception in 2007, becoming one of the most influential auto shows in Hainan, with nearly 3 million attendees and over 99,000 vehicles sold, generating a transaction amount of 12.5 billion yuan [4] - Various automotive brands are offering substantial purchase incentives, such as ICAR providing a discount of 2,000 yuan for a purchase of 1.2 million yuan, and BYD offering multiple promotional activities, indicating a competitive market environment [3] - The event also features a large rest area for visitors, providing diverse dining options to enhance the overall consumer experience, showcasing local culinary specialties [3]