Group 1 - The "anti-involution" trend is gaining momentum across various industries, including automotive, photovoltaic, cement, and steel, driven by ongoing policy efforts [2][4] - The photovoltaic sector has shown particularly strong performance, with both Hong Kong and A-shares in this sector seeing cumulative gains of over 5% in the last five trading days [2] - Key photovoltaic stocks, such as Yamaton and GCL-Poly, have experienced cumulative price increases exceeding 10% over the same period [2] Group 2 - The Chinese government has released multiple "anti-involution" policies this year, signaling a new round of supply-side reforms [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need to combat "price wars" in the automotive industry, with major automotive companies committing to limit payment terms to suppliers [5] - In the photovoltaic sector, a meeting was held to address low-price competition, and significant production cuts have been announced, indicating a shift towards healthier market dynamics [5] Group 3 - Various securities firms have differing views on the sustainability of the "anti-involution" trend, with some suggesting it may only provide short-term opportunities [6][7] - Industry self-discipline and production cuts are expected to help narrow supply-demand gaps in the short term, while the overall impact of the policies may take time to materialize [7] - The potential phases of the "anti-involution" trend include initial policy-driven expectations, followed by resource price increases, but the actual realization of these phases depends on effective policy implementation and capacity reduction [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the Chinese government's ongoing efforts to address "involution" in various industries, particularly focusing on the steel sector, through policy reforms aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics and reducing excess capacity [1]. Policy Developments - Since 2025, multiple policies have been introduced to combat "involution," including the emphasis on market-oriented resource allocation and the elimination of local protectionism and market segmentation [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) proposed a plan on May 20 to address "involution" by intensifying efforts to dismantle local protection and market segmentation, as well as curbing the disorderly expansion of outdated production capacity [1]. - A report released by the NDRC on March 13, 2025, outlined revisions to capacity replacement implementation methods in industries like steel, aiming to facilitate the gradual exit of inefficient production capacity and maintain control over crude steel output [1]. Industry Implications - The policies are expected to accelerate capacity regulation, which could benefit the steel industry by improving the supply-demand balance [1]. - The only ETF tracking the steel industry, the Steel ETF (515210), follows the CSI Steel Index, which includes listed companies involved in steel manufacturing, processing, and related services, reflecting the overall performance of the steel sector [1]. - The index components cover upstream and downstream enterprises in the steel industry, showcasing significant industry concentration characteristics [1].

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-09 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 宏观情绪放缓，黑色震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪放缓，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3063元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3191元/吨。现货方面，钢材现货成交整体一般，螺纹 相对偏弱，整体环比上一日略有好转，低价成交为主。昨日，全国建材成交9.6万吨。 综合来看：建材进入消费淡季，建材产量小幅回升，库存维持低位；板材产量环比小幅回升，整体利润尚可，目 前板材产销表现出较强韧性，市场担忧后期抢出口情绪退坡后影响板材消费，但是当前出口仍保持高位。中央财 经委开会讨论治理"无序竞争"和"落后产能有序退出"，市场情绪得到提振，但由于目前市场缺乏投机性需求，淡季 弱需求将持续压制钢材价格。 跨品种：无 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场谨慎观望，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格震荡运行。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于733元/吨，涨幅0.14%。现 货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳，贸易商报价积极性一般，市场交投情绪偏不佳，钢厂采购多 以刚需为主。本期45 ...

| 可能做 | | | | 日時 策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 业分格号:F025192 | | | | 发布日期 2025/07 | | 行业板块 | 品种 | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | | | 短期内,国内外利多因素平平,市场情绪和流动性尚可,股指或 呈现偏强震荡格局。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | | 否间。 | | | | 黄金 | | 震荡 | 市场不确定性仍存,金价短期料震荡为主。 | | | T 自银 | | 農汤 | 市场不确定性仍存,银价料震荡为主。 | | | | | | 美国非农大超预期,打压降息预期,叠加海外挤仓风险有所降 | | | | | 温. | 铜价存在回调风险。 | | | | | 看空 的。 | 美联储降息预期降温,叠加高价压制下游需求,铝价存在回落风 | | | 氧化铝 | | 辰川 | 国内反内卷政策提振供给侧改革预期,氧化铝价格企稳回升。 | | | | | | 宏观情绪改善下锌价企稳,基本面上累 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Neutral" from a previous rating due to limited valuation attractiveness after a significant stock price increase [2][7]. Core Views - The approval of a private placement will alleviate the company's financial pressure, with plans to raise RMB 3.5 billion, primarily for a solar cell project [7]. - The company is expected to significantly reduce losses in Q2 2025 due to a higher sales proportion of premium BC components in overseas markets [7]. - The supply side of the photovoltaic industry is anticipated to improve following recent government meetings aimed at regulating low-price competition and enhancing product quality [7]. - The target price for the company has been raised to RMB 16.50, reflecting an increase in valuation from 14 times to 18 times the 2026 earnings [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a decline in 2023 to RMB 27,170 million, followed by a significant drop in 2024 to RMB 11,155 million, before rebounding to RMB 22,800 million in 2025 [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to be negative in 2024 at RMB (5,319) million, with a gradual recovery projected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 2,622 million by 2027 [3][11]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be negative in 2024 at RMB (2.91), with a return to positive EPS of RMB 1.43 by 2027 [3][11]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 35.3 in 2023, with a significant drop to 10.2 by 2027, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [3][11]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 32.76%, with a 52-week high of RMB 16.49 and a low of RMB 7.39 [6][10]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 78.98 million shares, indicating active trading interest [6].

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/07/09 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 严志妮：Z0022076 张泫：F03118257 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 780-900 | 31.17% | 60.79% | | 焦炭 | 1350-1500 | 23.97% | 44.10% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存套保 | 焦炭盘面大幅升水现货，交割利润可观 | 多 | 做空J2509 | J2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1425-1450 | | | | | | | | 50% | 1450-1500 | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 9 日 今日焦点 | 爱旭股份 | | 600732 CH | | --- | --- | --- | | 定增获批缓解资金压力，股价大涨后估值吸引 | | 评级: 中性↓ | | 力有限，下调至中性 | | | | 收盘价: 人民币 14.63 | 目标价: 人民币 16.50↑ | 潜在涨幅: +12.8% | | 文昊, CPA | bob.wen@bocomgroup.com | | | 恒指技术走势 | | | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 24,148.07 | | 50 天平均线 | 23,825.43 | | 200 天平均线 | 22,414.89 | | 14 天强弱指数 | 55.31 | | 沽空 (百万港元) | 26,626 | | 资料来源： FactSet | | 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 公司定增 7 月 4 日获得上交所审核通过。公司 1Q25 资产负债 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 7 月 9 日星期三 敬请参阅文后的免责声明 期市有风险投资须谨慎 | | | | 铁矿：近期铁矿石盘面受情绪影响低位反弹，矿山季末冲量基本结束，澳 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 洲和巴西发运量均有一定程度下降，近端到港量也环比下行，后续供应依 | | | | | 然宽松。产业端淡季，五大钢材产量增，铁水淡季不淡，铁矿港口库存仍 | | | 铁矿石 | 反弹 | 旧在去库，240 以上的高铁水仍旧能驱动港口去库，关注后续铁水见顶情 | | | | | 况。供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。中 | | | | | 长期看，铁矿石中长期看整体呈现供应逐步回升、需求相对低位、港口库 | | | | | 存步入累库通道的局面，供需过剩格局不变，介于短期情绪扰动，短期反 | | | | | 弹为主，铁矿 2509 合约关注 740 元/吨一线能否有限突破。 | | | | | 煤焦：供给侧改革消息扰动叠加唐山限产带动黑色价格上涨，原料跟涨。 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 消 ...

打破光伏内卷困境，展望后内卷时代投资机会 20250708 摘要 光伏行业面临供给侧改革与产能出清挑战，多晶硅料环节尤为突出，价 格逼近龙头企业现金成本线，行业普遍亏损，亟需构建产业命运共同体， 约束低于成本价销售行为。 市场对光伏政策存在分歧，主要集中在政策有效性、最低成本价定义以 及执行方式上，导致对未来走势看法不一，需密切关注政策动向。 未来光伏行业发展前景取决于供给端优化措施的落实，政府层层加码显 示改革决心，但具体实施细节仍存疑虑，需关注政策动向以调整投资策 略。 当前光伏板块投资机会在于政策落地后的布局，关注财务指标健康的企 业如福斯特和阳光电源，以及无银少银技术相关企业和一体化企业。 预计到 2030 年全球光伏装机增速有望维持在 15%至 20%的水平，受 益于全球电力需求增长和供需关系改善，长期发展前景依然乐观。 2025 年光伏抢装导致下游组件价格上涨，但多晶硅价格未反弹，各环 节价格再次探底，多晶硅库存高企，硅片和电池片库存相对健康。 光伏行业市净率处于历史低位，未来随着供需平衡调节及政策限制产能 扩张，有望迎来供需拐点，多晶硅料价格回升将显著修复厂商盈利能力。 Q&A 致市场对于未来走 ...

反内卷，怎么反？ 总量联合行业投资机会全解析 20250708 摘要 当前反内卷政策强调结构性调整，旨在通过提高高质量供给比例实现产 业升级，与 2016 年钢铁、煤炭行业去产能政策不同，后者主要解决周 期性供求失衡，而当前问题更多是结构性的，有质量好的供给不足，有 质量差的供给过剩。 新修订的《反不正当竞争法》增加了关于治理内卷式竞争的规定，明确 禁止地方政府违法违规补贴行为，并要求严格执行公平条例，加强对低 价、低质产品及偷工减料等行为的监管，规范市场环境。 2023-2024 年中国工业用电量增长远快于工业增加值，但目前工业增 加值在增长，用电量在下降，表明投资放缓，产能出清顺应时局。传统 行业如钢铁、化工可能通过自发出清和政府帮助改善供给格局。 光伏产业面临硅料环节产能过剩、全产业链亏损销售等挑战。监管层可 能加强对低价销售的惩罚措施，并关注硅料产能收储整合平台公司的设 立。风电、储能、新能源车等子行业也有望受益。 Q&A 反内卷政策的背景和主要目标是什么？ 反内卷政策的背景源于 2025 年 7 月 1 日召开的二十届第六次财经委会议，会 议的主要议题是共同推进全国统一大市场建设，具体聚焦在综合整治 ...