转自：新华财经 在供需缺口持续增加以及国内出口配额限制等基本环境下，白银价格整体维持强势。从整体波动幅度来 看，目前银价，守稳85美元／盎司一线，如期进入85-103美元／盎司的运行区间，依据技术形态分析， 银价中期95-103美元／盎司技术目标区正在逐渐实现，100美元／盎司的整数关口需要高度警惕，谨防 再次剧烈波动。 【黄金时间】是由新华财经与中国黄金报社共同打造的一档聚焦黄金珠宝市场的专题栏目，内容全面覆 盖黄金珠宝行业的政策动态、投资资讯、风险分析等，提供权威、专业、全面的黄金珠宝领域金融信息 服务。新华财经是新华社承建的国家金融信息平台。 编辑：郭洲洋 地缘局势方面，伊朗局势暂受控制，哈马斯指责以色列违反停火协议，种种因素表明冲突格局暂缓但仍 然没有停止的迹象。 综合金融市场表现来看，地缘风险仍存，美联储货币政策依然存在宽松预期，在此市场环境下，黄金价 格在今后的较长时期内将有望保持强势，短期的调整，或将都是潜在的市场机会。 从技术面来看，黄金价格的中期涨势没有改变，连续三个交易日，金价保持在4566美元上方运行，显示 金价前高的阻力转化为重要支撑后，力度依然强劲。中期上涨技术目标指向4825美元／ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the oversupply pressure in 2026 remains the core driver of oil price movements. Geopolitical risks have fluctuated recently, with short - term price fluctuations due to the Iran situation and the Russia - Ukraine war, while the medium - term downward trend remains valid [4]. - For PX & PTA, domestic PX operating rates have increased, and future supply - demand is expected to weaken. PTA is currently in a short - term tight balance, but high operating rates may not be sustainable, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels following the cost side [4]. - For MEG, the supply pressure has eased, but the medium - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. It is expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short - term [5]. - For BZ & EB, pure benzene has high inventory pressure and is expected to oscillate widely. Styrene shows a short - term strong trend but may face callback risks due to upstream cost constraints [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The oversupply pressure in 2026 is the most core driver of oil price movements. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have intensified and then weakened, and short - term price fluctuations are dominated by the uncertainty of the Iran situation and the Russia - Ukraine war, with the medium - term downward trend remaining intact [4]. PX & PTA - PX: Domestic PX operating rates have reached a two - year high, and PX processing fees have fallen to around $320/ton. Future supply - demand is expected to weaken. The annual average domestic PX capacity utilization rate is 91.95%, up 2.83% from last week; the Asian PX capacity utilization rate is 79.84%, up 0.66% from last week. The PX - naphtha spread has dropped to around $320/ton [4][8]. - PTA: The domestic PTA device load has decreased slightly, and the production capacity utilization rate is 77.22%, down 0.19% from last week. Factory inventories have increased slightly, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The current high - operating rate may not be sustainable, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels following the cost side. The PTA spot market price is 5068 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last week [4][13]. MEG - The domestic ethylene glycol syngas device is undergoing spring maintenance, and the supply pressure has eased. The port inventory has increased again, but imports are expected to decline in January - February. In the short - term, the supply - demand is weak, with support around 3600 yuan/ton and limited rebound height. The medium - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, and it is expected to oscillate at low levels. The ethylene glycol price in East China is 3701 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from last week, and the comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 62.69%, up 0.37% from last week [5][19]. BZ & EB - Pure benzene: The port inventory has continued to accumulate to a historical high, and the supply - demand pattern is overall loose, expected to oscillate widely. The pure benzene operating rate is 74.26%, down 0.12% from last week, and the inventory has reached 32.4 tons, up 0.6 tons from last week [5][27]. - Styrene: The port inventory has decreased more than expected. The short - term trend is strong, but there is a callback risk due to upstream cost constraints. The styrene operating rate is 70.86%, down 0.06% from last week, and the port inventory is 10.06 tons, down 3.17 tons from last week [5][27]. Downstream Industry - The polyester industry's average capacity utilization rate is 86.7%, down 0.46% from last week. The inventory levels of polyester staple fibers and filaments have decreased slightly. - The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving sample enterprises is 54.94%, down 2.95% from the previous period. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 7.73 days, down 0.96 days from last week, and the average terminal weaving finished product inventory is 28.27 days, up 0.70 days from last week. The industry is in a traditional off - season, and the clothing consumption demand is weak [22].

转自：新华财经 短期支撑因素减退 近期，伊朗多地发生抗议活动，其间出现骚乱，造成人员伤亡。连日来，特朗普多次威胁军事干涉伊朗 局势。面对美国的威胁，伊朗密集展开外交沟通的同时，也提高了战备状态。紧接着多国呼吁本国公民 撤离伊朗，英国暂时关闭驻伊朗大使馆，加上伊朗暂时关闭领空等消息，更是提高了伊朗局势紧张的氛 围。 对于商品市场而言，伊朗局势紧张直接构成了推动包括原油、贵金属在内不少商品短期上涨的重要驱 动。盘面显示，上周（截至1月9日当周）国际油价后两日快速拉涨，一举扭转上周初的弱势走势，并在 1月14日盘中，WTI原油最高触及62美元／桶上方，布伦特原油更是逼近67美元／桶，均为2025年10月 以来的新高。黄金和白银则更是在避险买盘的加持下，连续刷新历史新高。 不过，不到一日，油市风云急变。 美国总统特朗普当地时间1月14日在白宫对媒体说，他已获悉伊朗国内"杀戮已经停止"，美方将"拭目以 待，观察事态发展"。被记者问及美国是否已排除对伊朗军事干涉的可能性时，特朗普说："我们将拭目 以待，观察事态发展。" 特朗普的这一表态，被市场普遍解读为美国对伊朗的军事打击已经从"极有可能"转变为"可能性较低"， 从而缓 ...

2025年底，由于不满货币贬值、物价飞涨导致生活成本飙升，中东某国多地爆发抗议活动。随着范围与 规模的不断扩大，抗议活动于2026年初演变为暴力冲突和政治抗议，成为近三年来中东某国爆发最大的 骚乱事件。美国总统特朗普对地缘局势的倾向同时引发市场关注：1月2日，特朗普威胁对该国骚乱事件 进行干涉，称美国"已做好准备"；1月8日，特朗普再次就该国骚乱事件发出威胁，称如再有人员死亡， 美国将进行"严厉打击"。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯分析师 桑潇 中东地缘风险扰动 原油价格录得五日连涨 综合来看，宏观压力与产业过剩叠加施压，2026年原油价格仍面临较大的下行压力，不过考虑到地缘局 势的频繁扰动，以及美国石油需求、美联储货币政策、欧佩克+产量政策等存在阶段性支撑，原油市场 高波动性行情料将延续，价格重心缓慢下移，欧美原油年度均值或分别在60及56美元/桶附近。市场风 险性因素，一是地缘局势，二是经济及金融系统性风险。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李铁民 美国的干预威胁加大中东地缘风险，以及由此引发的石油供应担忧，支撑原油价格连续五日上涨，累计 涨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-01-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 弱势运行 | 地缘风险弱化，原油震荡走弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛墨西哥或成为美国下一个夺取和 打击的目标。同时美国威胁或对伊朗展开新一轮军事打击，中东地缘风险再度加剧。随着美国总统 特朗普释放可能暂缓打击伊朗的信号， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that both domestic and international silver futures prices have reached historical highs, driven by expectations of loose liquidity in overseas markets and geopolitical risks [1][2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the main silver futures contract (2604) reached a peak price of 23,688 yuan per kilogram, while the COMEX silver futures contract hit a high of 93.7 USD per ounce [1] - Analysts indicate that the strong performance of silver prices is linked to a mismatch in supply and demand, with industrial demand for silver in sectors like photovoltaic panels, electric vehicles, and AI hardware continuing to grow, leading to historically low global inventories [1] Group 2 - As of January 15, the total capital in Shanghai silver futures increased to 80.867 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 230 million yuan for the day and nearly 21.5 billion yuan year-to-date, making it the second-ranked commodity in terms of capital accumulation [2] - Analysts suggest that investors should be cautious with their positions due to increased volatility following rapid price increases, recommending a reduction in leverage or risk exposure [2] - For long-term investors, it is advised to use derivative tools like options for risk hedging to mitigate potential price fluctuations, as silver's volatility is typically higher than that of gold [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum and palladium are expected to be oscillating upwards [2] Core Viewpoints - The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and platinum and palladium prices are maintaining a wide - range oscillation. The prices of GFEX platinum and palladium main contracts dropped on January 15, with platinum down 4.11% and palladium down 4.62% [1] - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks, platinum prices may continue to oscillate widely in the short term. In the future, supply in South Africa faces risks, while demand in various fields is expanding, and the "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] - The short - term palladium price may also oscillate widely. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Summary by Related Aspects Platinum - **Current Situation**: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX platinum main contract closed at 609.05 yuan/gram, down 4.11% [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks will keep the price in a wide - range oscillation. Investors are advised to manage risks and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [1] - **Long - term Outlook**: South Africa, the main supplier, faces power supply and extreme weather risks. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding jewelry and investment demand. The "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] Palladium - **Current Situation**: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 478.6 yuan/gram, down 4.62% [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: The price may oscillate widely. Investors are advised to trade cautiously and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [2] - **Long - term Outlook**: Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Commodity Index (January 15, 2026) - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2439.09, down 0.39%; the commodity 20 index was 2791.36, down 0.63%; the industrial products index was 2354.54, down 0.35% [47] Non - ferrous Metals Index (January 15, 2026) - The index value was 2854.45, with a daily increase of 0.09%, a 5 - day increase of 2.13%, a 1 - month increase of 12.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.27% [49]

Core Viewpoint - The maritime shipping route through the Red Sea and Suez Canal is set to fully resume after a two-year interruption, with Maersk Group officially restoring its Middle East-India to East Coast USA (MECL) route, citing improved stability in the Red Sea region [1][4]. Group 1: Company Actions - Maersk Group announced the resumption of the MECL route, contingent on security conditions being met [1]. - Maersk's successful navigation of a vessel through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait marks the second successful trial since December, indicating a cautious return to the region [1]. - CMA CGM, the world's third-largest container shipping group, has also resumed operations through the Suez Canal earlier this month [4]. Group 2: Market Implications - The potential full resumption of the Red Sea route could lead to a reduction in the global container fleet by 6% to 8%, shifting market balance unfavorably for carriers [1]. - The market reacted cautiously to the news, with Maersk's ADR stock price dropping over 5%, reflecting investor concerns about increased capacity leading to lower freight rates [1]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The threat from Houthi forces remains, but the implementation of a ceasefire agreement has prompted Maersk's decision to return to the Red Sea [5]. - Analysts warn of ongoing volatility in the Middle East, with recent comments from U.S. President Trump regarding military intervention in Iran raising new concerns [6]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. government actions complicates decision-making for shipping companies, as the market awaits further moves from other carriers regarding the Red Sea route [6].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 日报观点 【1】盘面表现：BU 2603主力合约日内开盘跳低后，维持低位震荡，最终收盘价3167，较昨日收盘 价-0.03%，盘中最高触及3210，最低3155。按收盘价算近7天累计+0.7%。次月合约2606较昨日收盘价 持平。远月合约抗跌性高于近月。 【2】现货市场：①山东重交沥青市场价为3100元/吨，环比持平，7天累计+0.0%。山东基差为-67元/ 吨，7天累计+7元/吨。②华东重交沥青市场价为3200元/吨，环比持平。华东基差为+33元/吨，7天累计 +7元/吨。 【3】裂解变化：①BU-Brent录得-120元/吨，7天累计+57元/吨。当日BU主力收盘+0.0%；Brent-1.7% （以下午3点收盘成交价计算）。 特朗普表示伊朗将停止"杀戮"抗议者，表态暗含了可能暂缓对伊朗抗议事件采取的军事回应。美伊地缘 风险回落使得油价从高位大跌，逐渐回吐此前的地缘溢价。短期来看，地缘不确定仍给油价带来不确 定，沥青在油价大跌时表现出相对抗性。短期裂解差持观望看待。 【4】基本面变化：据隆众现货报价统计，华东重交沥青市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic and international silver futures prices have reached historical highs, driven by expectations of loose liquidity in overseas markets and geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The main silver futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) hit a peak of 23,688 yuan per kilogram, while the COMEX silver futures for March reached 93.7 USD per ounce [1] - Concerns over future silver supply have increased, coupled with structural adjustments on both supply and demand sides, enhancing market bullish sentiment [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Silver is a critical raw material for industries such as photovoltaic panels, electric vehicles, and AI computing hardware, leading to sustained industrial demand and historically low global inventories [1] - The mismatch between supply and demand has created a "hard shortage" scenario, boosting speculative buying interest [1] Group 3: Trading Activity - As of January 15, the trading volume for the main silver futures contract reached 1.887 million lots, an increase of 284,000 lots from the previous trading day [1] - The long positions among the top twenty main positions reached 212,000 lots, with a daily increase of 3,558 lots, while short positions were at 184,000 lots, with a daily increase of 2,179 lots, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [1] Group 4: Investment Insights - The total capital in SHFE silver futures rose to 80.867 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 230 million yuan on the day, and a year-to-date net inflow of nearly 21.5 billion yuan, making it the second-ranked commodity in terms of capital [2] - Analysts suggest that investors should be cautious with their positions due to increased volatility following rapid price increases, recommending a reduction in leverage or risk exposure [2] - Long-term investors are advised to use options and other derivatives for risk hedging to mitigate potential price fluctuations [2]