1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities having different trends. Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical factors, seasonal changes, and policy expectations. Investors need to pay attention to different influencing factors for each commodity and adjust their investment strategies accordingly, especially during the National Day holiday to control risks [2][3][44] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly. The supply side is in a multi - empty intertwined state. The oil inventory accumulation process is clear, with a 2.4% increase in the third quarter. It's recommended to hold a protective strategy combining futures shorts and call options [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Iraq's crude oil export recovery and OPEC +'s increasing production expectations put pressure on oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten due to geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weaker fundamental situation [20] - **Asphalt**: Market pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm increased. The overall inventory level decreased. The 10 - month production plan was in line with expectations, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Due to typhoon weather in South China, the import volume decreased. Supply - demand improved marginally, and the LPG price rebounded slightly from the bottom [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals continued to be strong. The medium - term upward trend remains, but there is high volatility risk during the National Day holiday, so it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices rose. The market is digesting the supply impact. Technically, LME copper shows potential for a trend breakthrough, and SHFE copper enters the high - price area. However, there are negative demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight non - ferrous metals were strong, but SHFE aluminum was relatively stable. The consumption in September was lower than expected, and it faces resistance at the March high. Pay attention to the peak - season feedback after the holiday [5] - **Zinc**: As the National Day holiday approaches, the zinc fundamentals weakened. Shorts increased positions significantly. Pay attention to the support at 21,500 yuan/ton, and be vigilant against potential short squeezes in the outer market [8] - **Lead**: The supply of lead exceeded demand in the short term, and the price dropped significantly. Pay attention to the cost support at around 16,500 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel is in a weak state. The inventory of pure nickel and nickel iron decreased, while the stainless - steel inventory increased. Wait for the external copper price to drive the market [10] - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices rose rapidly. Pay attention to the impact of Indonesia's policy and the changes in refined tin production rate and inventory after the holiday [11] - **Manganese Silicon & Silicon Iron**: With the "Three - Carbon" concept, there is an upward driving force for prices. The demand from molten iron production is rising, and it's recommended to go long at low prices [18][19] Chemicals - **Urea**: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and the supply exceeds demand. The inventory of production enterprises continues to accumulate. Pay attention to policy adjustments [23] - **Methanol**: The methanol market is expected to be weak. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [24] - **Pure Benzene**: The real - world fundamental situation is okay, but the oil - price collapse and future demand decline expectations drag down the market [24] - **Styrene**: The cost - side support from oil prices is strengthening, but high inventory suppresses prices [25] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of polypropylene is under pressure, and the price is always under pressure. For polyethylene, the downstream has stocking demand before the holiday, but there is de - stocking pressure after the holiday [26] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak and oscillating state due to high supply and inventory. Caustic soda may oscillate due to weak current situation and strong future expectations [27] - **PX & PTA**: The strong expectations of PX are weakened, and the supply - demand situation of PTA is still under pressure after the holiday [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply pressure is not large in the short term, but the supply - demand may be weak in the fourth quarter [29] - **Short Fibre & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber demand is boosted during the peak season, and bottle - chip prices are affected by short - term factors [30] Building Materials - **Glass**: Pay attention to the downstream restocking sentiment. If capacity reduction does not occur, the market may return to a weak state [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related Products**: U.S. soybeans face seasonal and export pressures. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle. Mid - term, soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range. Consider protective call strategies [34] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Due to the holiday, market sentiment is cautious. Rapeseed meal demand is suppressed, while rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines before the holiday [35] - **Domestic Soybeans**: Domestic soybeans are performing better than imported ones in the short term. Pay attention to the performance after the listing of domestic soybeans [36] - **Eggs**: Egg futures have significantly reduced positions. After the National Day, demand will weaken. Consider long positions in far - month contracts next year [38] - **Cotton**: U.S. and Chinese cotton prices are falling. Xinjiang cotton may have a bumper harvest, and domestic demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [39] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the market focuses on the next - crop - season yield estimate in China [40] - **Apples**: Although the spot market is good, the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, so maintain a short - selling mindset [41] - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. Maintain a long - buying mindset [42] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices hit a new low. The inventory in Chinese ports is relatively high, and the demand is average. Stay on the sidelines [43] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index showed strength. The external liquidity environment for the Greater China stock index is positive. Mid - term, increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors, and moderately increase the allocation of cyclical sectors in the short term [44] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures closed down. The economic operation faces challenges, and the yield - curve steepening probability increases [45] Livestock - **Hogs**: Hog futures dropped. The supply is abundant, and the government has carried out small - scale purchases. The industry is in a loss state. Pay attention to the impact of re - entry in the fourth quarter [37] - **Eggs**: Egg futures reduced positions significantly. The demand will weaken after the National Day. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for next year [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rebounded after a correction last week, with an overall increase of 0.43%. Precious metals led the gains at 4.48%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 0.73%. Energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined by 0.06%, 1.23%, and 1.95% respectively. [2][7] - Due to uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate cut path and the non - realization of expected domestic interest - rate cut policies, short - term liquidity is disrupted, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2] - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may fluctuate; non - ferrous metals may remain stable; black commodities may fluctuate weakly; energy may fluctuate; chemical products face pressure; and agricultural products and oilseeds may fluctuate. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Performance**: The commodity market rose 0.43% last week. Precious metals led with a 4.48% increase, non - ferrous metals rose 0.73%, while energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined. [2][7] - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, fuel oil, and copper had the highest increases at 6.63%, 4.36%, and 3.28% respectively. Rapeseed meal, coking coal, and coke had the largest declines at 4.64%, 2.88%, and 2.65% respectively. [2][7] - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, especially for oilseeds. [2][7] - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased slightly, with net inflows in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. [2][7] 3.2 Outlook - **Precious Metals**: PCE data met expectations, reducing pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Uncertainties in interest - rate cut expectations may lead to short - term fluctuations. [3] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The stronger US dollar after the interest - rate meeting suppresses the sector, but domestic demand expectations and pre - holiday restocking support prices. The Grasberg copper mine accident affects supply and copper prices. The sector may remain stable in the short term. [3] - **Black Commodities**: Rebar demand improved, production stabilized, and inventory decreased. Steel mills have thin profits, and raw material supply is stable. The sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] - **Energy**: US inventory declines and geopolitical risks support oil prices. Geopolitical risks may rise around the National Day, but the rebound space is limited. The sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] - **Chemical Products**: Polyester sales increased, reducing inventory pressure, but inventory accumulation and low profits continue to pressure the industry. [4] - **Agricultural Products**: Argentina's agricultural policy changes and China's increased soybean purchases reduce the supply gap risk next year. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and the oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with a combined scale increase of 1.83% and a combined trading volume increase of 4.52%. [39] - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.63% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.81% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.82% return, and the silver futures fund had a 5.72% return. [39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Crude oil supply is in a mixed state of immediate increase and geopolitical risks, with a clear inventory accumulation process. Oil prices have limited upside space, and a protective strategy combining short futures and call options is recommended [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors, showing a short-term strong trend. Low-sulfur fuel oil has abundant supply and weak demand, mainly following cost fluctuations [2]. - Asphalt market has increased pre-holiday stocking enthusiasm, with a decline in overall inventory levels. The subsequent demand is boosted by seasonal factors, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [3]. - Liquefied petroleum gas has a marginal improvement in supply and demand, with an expected increase in overall consumption. The LPG futures price has rebounded slightly from the previous bottom [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply is in a multi - empty intertwined state with inventory accumulation of 2.4% in the third quarter, including 0.5% for crude oil and 5.5% for refined oil. The inventory structure has shifted to upstream crude oil. A protective strategy is recommended [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: Middle East shipments are high, but geopolitical factors cause concerns about supply reduction, supporting the FU trend [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [2]. Asphalt - Pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm has increased, with a decrease in refinery and social inventories. The October production plan has a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Import arrivals in the South China region have decreased due to typhoons, and overall consumption is expected to increase. The LPG futures price has rebounded slightly [3].

Group 1: XAU/USD Analysis - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices experienced fluctuations, breaking through 3783.6 before retreating, with a daily range of 493 points and a small bullish close [3] - Current early morning prices have breached the 3791 to 3798.6 range, approaching the 3800 mark, supported by geopolitical risks, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and de-dollarization trends [3] - Key resistance levels are identified at 3810/3815, with support at 3758/3735, suggesting a strategy of selling at 3810/3815 and buying on dips to 3760 [4] Group 2: EUR/USD Analysis - The analysis notes a loss on a short position due to the price reaching 1.1707, with a daily close showing a small bullish trend influenced by rising French debt and EU trade proposals [6] - Resistance levels are set at 1.180/1.184, while support is at 1.161/1.166, with a recommendation to buy at 1.169/1.170 [8] Group 3: GBP/USD Analysis - The GBP/USD analysis highlights a loss on a short position as the price reached 1.3412, with attention on inflation impacts and US-UK tariff negotiations [10] - Resistance levels are identified at 1.350/1.355 and support at 1.332/1.337, with a buy recommendation at 1.337/1.338 [12] Group 4: GBP/JPY Analysis - The GBP/JPY market saw upward movement with a high of 200.5 before retreating, maintaining an upward trend above key support levels [14] - Resistance is noted at 201.3/200.7, with support at 199.1/198.6, and a buy recommendation on dips to 199.8-199.9 [15] Group 5: Fundamental Reminders - Key economic indicators to watch include UK mortgage approvals, Eurozone economic sentiment, US existing home sales, and comments from Federal Reserve officials [17]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength due to factors such as interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical risks [1][4][6]. Precious Metals Performance - As of September 28, silver prices surged past $46 per ounce, marking a 1.91% increase and reaching a 14-year high. Platinum rose by 15.4% over the week, surpassing $1500 per ounce, a 12-year high [1]. - Gold has set new historical highs 36 times this year, with a cumulative increase of 43%. The largest gold ETF, SPDR, has seen its holdings rise to 1005.72 tons, the highest since August 2022 [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The increase in gold prices is attributed to lower opportunity costs for holding gold due to interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have boosted market risk aversion [6]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to trend upwards, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [6][7]. Gold ETF Activity - SPDR significantly increased its holdings in September, adding 18.9 tons on September 19, 6.01 tons on September 22, and 8.87 tons on September 26, pushing its total holdings above 1000 tons [6]. - The overall increase in gold ETFs this year has exceeded 37%, with Shanghai gold ETFs rising over 45% and gold stock ETFs increasing by more than 77% [9]. Gold Mining Stocks - The gold sector has seen a remarkable increase of 67.5% this year, with some stocks like Western Gold, Chao Hong Ji, and China Gold rising over 150% [13]. - Several gold companies, including Zijin Mining and Chao Hong Ji, are planning to go public or have recently listed, indicating strong market interest [10][11]. Shareholder Activity - Despite the rising stock prices, some shareholders are taking profits, as evidenced by recent share reductions by Schroders PLC and other stakeholders in various gold companies [13][14].

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strong performance, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1][2] - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% and a year-to-date rise of 59%, outperforming most commodities [2][3] - Platinum also saw significant gains, with a weekly increase of 11.5%, breaking through $1500 per ounce, marking a 12-year high [1][5] Group 2: Silver Price Dynamics - The average silver price for 2024 is projected at $28.27 per ounce, compared to $23.35 per ounce in 2023 [3] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and loose liquidity [3][4] - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, significantly higher than historical averages, indicating potential for price correction in silver [4] Group 3: Platinum and Gold Performance - Platinum prices surged to $1584 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 73%, driven by demand in automotive catalysts and electric vehicle batteries [5] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [5][6] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date, indicating robust demand for gold [5][6] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility following rapid increases [7][8] - The macroeconomic environment, including expectations of continued monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to support silver prices, but risks remain regarding speculative profit-taking and changes in U.S. inflation data [7][8] - The outlook for gold is mixed, with short-term fluctuations expected due to market adjustments to interest rate expectations, while long-term trends may favor upward movement due to central bank purchases and global liquidity conditions [8]

Group 1 - Silver prices surged to a 14-year high, exceeding $46 per ounce, with a six-month increase of over 30%. Platinum also saw a significant rise, breaking through $1500 per ounce, marking a 12-year high. This surge is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and escalating geopolitical risks [2][4][12] - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for four consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%. Analysts suggest there is still room for further rate cuts within the year, potentially leading to lower mortgage rates [2][4] - The first batch of new floating-rate funds has shown impressive performance, with 23 out of 26 funds achieving positive returns since inception, and three funds exceeding a 40% return rate. The performance differences are attributed to various factors including benchmarks and fund manager capabilities [2][4] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing high valuations, as noted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who indicated that stock prices appear overvalued based on several metrics. However, he did not signal any imminent interest rate cuts, which disappointed the market [5][19] - Recent data indicates a mixed performance in global stock markets, with Chinese indices showing gains while U.S. indices experienced declines. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell by 1.57% [6][12] - In the bond market, the one-year Chinese government bond yield slightly decreased by 0.75 basis points, while the ten-year U.S. government bond yield rose by 6 basis points [8][9]

Group 1 - Gold prices have surged 120% over the past three years, with a 40% increase in the first half of this year alone, surpassing last year's 26% rise [1][3] - Institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with some predicting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce [3][4] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank purchasing gold for ten consecutive months, leading to a significant shift in reserve strategies [6][8] Group 2 - The decline in interest rates makes holding gold more attractive, as it reduces the opportunity cost of not holding interest-bearing assets [10][12] - Geopolitical risks, such as tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are driving investors towards gold as a safe asset [12][14] - Historical data shows that gold prices tend to rise significantly during crises, averaging a 5.5% increase within 8-20 days after such events [14][18] Group 3 - Analysts have mixed views on the future of gold prices, with some predicting continued upward momentum while others caution against chasing high prices [16][21] - Goldman Sachs reports a historic high in the number of investors bullish on gold prices [19] - Predictions for gold prices in the short to long term vary, with potential ranges from $2,500 to $4,500 depending on various economic factors [22] Group 4 - Consumers are advised to approach gold investments cautiously, considering options like gold ETFs or physical gold bars, while avoiding high-risk instruments like futures [27][29] - Young consumers looking to purchase gold jewelry are exploring alternatives due to rising prices, such as buying gold bars directly or using old gold for exchanges [30][31] - Retailers in the gold jewelry sector are facing challenges, with significant declines in sales and store closures attributed to high gold prices [33]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength, driven by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1][3] - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% [1][3] - Platinum prices surged by 11.5% in one week, breaking through $1500 per ounce, marking a 12-year high [1][3] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's recent price surge is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and loose liquidity [4][5] - The average price of silver is projected to be $28.27 per ounce in 2024, up from $23.35 in 2023 [4] - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, indicating that silver is still undervalued and has significant price recovery potential [5] Group 3: Platinum and Gold Performance - Platinum prices have increased significantly, with a year-to-date rise of over 73%, driven by demand in automotive catalysts and electric vehicle batteries [7] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [7][8] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date [7] Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility at high levels [10][11] - The macroeconomic environment, including expectations of continued monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to support silver prices [10][11] - Central bank gold purchases are anticipated to remain a long-term strategic behavior, aimed at optimizing foreign exchange reserves and hedging against global uncertainties [8]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented strength due to factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increasing geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Silver Market Performance - On September 26, silver prices surpassed $46 per ounce, reaching a 14-year high, with a six-month increase of over 30% and a year-to-date rise of 59%, outperforming most commodities [2][3] - The average silver price for 2024 is projected at $28.27 per ounce, compared to $23.35 per ounce in 2023 [4] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal, benefiting from economic conditions such as rising inflation and liquidity [4][5] Group 2: Platinum and Gold Market Trends - Platinum prices also surged, with a 2.5% increase on September 27, reaching $1584 per ounce, marking an 11.5% weekly rise [7] - Gold remains strong near historical highs, with a current price of $3783 per ounce, supported by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties [8] - In September, global gold ETF inflows reached a record $10.5 billion, with total inflows exceeding $50 billion year-to-date [8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current gold-silver ratio is approximately 82 domestically and 85 internationally, significantly higher than historical averages, indicating potential for silver price recovery [5] - Analysts suggest that while silver has strong upward momentum, caution is advised due to potential price volatility and the impact of changing economic conditions [9][10] - The outlook for gold remains optimistic due to ongoing central bank purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization, with expectations of a gradual price increase [10]