Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical situation remains unclear, and the A-share market is experiencing a catch - up decline. In a market of heavy - volume decline, investors should not rush to buy the dip. They need to closely monitor the latest developments in geopolitical conflicts and the dynamics of the Two Sessions, and pay attention to whether policy favorable signals will be released during the Two Sessions [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Macro - situation**: The 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held from March 4th to March 11th, 2026, with a 7 - day session. The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress will open on March 5th. Overseas, US President Trump made tough statements on multiple issues during his meeting with German Chancellor Merz, including the Iran situation, relations with European allies, and oil price trends. He also announced measures such as cutting off trade with Spain and providing insurance for oil transportation [1] - **Index adjustment**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.43% to close at 4122.68 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.57%. Most sector indices declined, with oil and petrochemicals, coal, transportation, and banking leading the gains, while national defense and military industry, electronics, computers, and media sectors leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained above 3 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices all closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 1.02% to 22516.69 points [1] - **Futures index position reduction**: In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures declined. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [1] Strategy - Due to the unclear geopolitical situation and the catch - up decline of the A - share market, investors should not be eager to bottom - fish and should focus on geopolitical conflicts and the Two Sessions [2] Chart Summary Macro - economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic major stock index daily performance**: On March 3, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.43% to 4122.68, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.07% to 14022.39, the ChiNext Index fell 2.57% to 3209.48, the CSI 300 Index fell 1.54% to 4655.90, the SSE 50 Index fell 1.06% to 3014.27, the CSI 500 Index fell 4.35% to 8281.61, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 3.95% to 8142.45 [12] Futures Index Tracking Charts - **Stock index futures trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF futures were 166,629 and 287,927 respectively, with changes of + 37,821 and + 384; for IH futures, they were 78,973 and 114,542 respectively, with changes of + 17,839 and + 1,678; for IC futures, they were 261,332 and 332,226 respectively, with changes of + 82,526 and + 20,657; for IM futures, they were 293,689 and 401,907 respectively, with changes of + 67,713 and + 18,912 [12][14] - **Stock index futures basis**: For IF futures, the basis of the current - month contract was - 4.50 with a change of + 12.97; for IH futures, it was 4.73 with a change of + 5.40; for IC futures, it was - 15.41 with a change of + 15.92; for IM futures, it was - 13.05 with a change of + 40.11 [31] - **Stock index futures inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads and their changes of different contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) are provided in the report, including spreads between different months such as the next - month minus the current - month, the next - quarter minus the current - month, etc. [38][39]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant increase in travel demand during the 2026 Spring Festival, indicating a potential shift in consumer behavior towards more robust spending patterns [2][8] - It emphasizes the importance of the upcoming "Two Sessions" in shaping economic policies and targets, particularly regarding GDP growth and inflation rates [7][8] - The analysis suggests a transformation in consumption patterns, with a notable rise in travel among older demographics and a shift towards personalized consumption experiences [3][8] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 5%, slightly lower than the previous year's target of 5.3%, reflecting a more pragmatic approach to economic management [7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) target for 2026 is expected to remain around 2%, aligning with current economic conditions and aiming for moderate inflation [7] - The report anticipates a fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in local government special bond issuance to support economic growth [7] Consumer Trends - The report identifies three unusual trends in consumer behavior during the Spring Festival: a surge in travel, increased participation from older travelers, and a shift towards more personalized consumption [8] - Travel data shows a 35% increase in flight bookings for travelers aged 60 and above, with significant growth in hotel reservations and ticket purchases for attractions [3][8] - The rise of self-driving trips and the use of new media platforms for travel planning are noted as key factors driving changes in consumer preferences [8] Policy Implications - The report underscores the need for effective fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption, with a focus on enhancing service consumption and supporting small businesses [7][8] - It suggests that the government will continue to implement measures to boost consumer confidence and spending, including personal credit repair initiatives and targeted financial support [9] - The analysis indicates that the current economic environment may lead to a greater emphasis on service consumption as disposable income increases and consumer preferences evolve [9]

Market Overview - On March 3, 2026, the A-share market opened high but experienced wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 4133 points before stabilizing and then retreating again[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.68 points, down 1.43%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.07% to 14022.39 points[8] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 31,580 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[4] Sector Performance - Strong performers included oil and gas, banking, coal, and shipping ports, while aerospace, small metals, semiconductors, and energy metals lagged behind[4] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets declined, with notable gains in oil service engineering, gas, and coal mining sectors[8] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices were 17.21 times and 53.15 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[4] - The market is expected to focus on cyclical and technological sectors as the "Two Sessions" and the "14th Five-Year Plan" are clarified[4] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy developments[4] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in banking, oil, coal, and shipping port sectors[4] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy and economic recovery delays, and international relations changes affecting the economic environment[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated and trended stronger. The central bank has completed the handling of suggestions and proposals from the "Two Sessions" in 2025, and is promoting the high - level opening - up of the financial sector in an orderly manner. The weekly output of rebar decreased this period, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 36.19%. Terminal demand has recovered, but the apparent demand is still at a relatively low level, and inventory continues to increase. With the "Two Sessions" approaching, some steel mills' blast furnaces have production - cut plans, and geopolitical tensions continue to push up oil prices, which support commodity prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are stable. It is recommended for short - term trading with risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - RB main contract closing price: 3,074.00 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] - RB main contract position: 1,881,888 lots, down 21,925 lots [2] - RB contract top 20 net position: - 33,296 lots, up 1,229 lots [2] - RB5 - 10 contract spread: - 31 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] - RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 22,828 tons, unchanged [2] - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 145 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,240.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hangzhou HRB400E 20MM (actual weight): 3,323 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guangzhou HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,450.00 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - Tianjin HRB400E 20MM (theoretical weight): 3,120.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - RB main contract basis: 166.00 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spot spread: 10.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 60.8% PB iron ore fines: 755.00 yuan/wet ton, up 5.00 yuan [2] - Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke (FOB price): 1,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel (tax - excluded): 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,910.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 17,096.31 million tons, up 153.98 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 62.59 million tons, up 7.21 million tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 675.06 million tons, down 13.52 million tons [2] - Tangshan billet inventory: 219.46 million tons, up 45.24 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 80.24%, up 0.09% [2] - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 87.48%, up 1.05% [2] - Sample steel mills' rebar output: 165.10 million tons, down 5.28 million tons [2] - Sample steel mills' rebar capacity utilization rate: 36.19%, down 1.16% [2] - Sample steel mills' rebar inventory: 232.84 million tons, up 11.77 million tons [2] - 35 - city rebar social inventory: 567.76 million tons, up 72.79 million tons [2] - Independent electric arc furnace steel mill operating rate: 11.46%, down 10.42% [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 6,818 million tons, down 169 million tons [2] - China's rebar monthly output: 1,375 million tons, up 19 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 1,078.00 million tons, up 130.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - National real estate climate index: 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment: - 3.80%, down 1.20% [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment: - 17.20%, down 1.30% [2] - Cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment: - 2.20%, down 1.10% [2] - Cumulative value of housing construction area: 659,890 million square meters, down 3,824 million square meters [2] - Cumulative value of new housing construction area: 58,770 million square meters, down 5,313 million square meters [2] - Commodity housing unsold area: 40,236.00 million square meters, down 875.00 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - The press conference of the 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held this afternoon (March 3). The conference will open at 3 pm on March 4 and close on the morning of March 11, with a duration of 7 days [2] - As of February 28, 16 cities have introduced 21 property market relaxation policies. Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan", which reduces the entry threshold for non - Shanghai - registered homebuyers, expands the home - buying eligibility of the resident - permit holders, and moderately relaxes the purchase restrictions within the outer ring road. The Shanghai new policy provides a reference sample for the whole country [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The HC2605 contract reduced positions and consolidated on Tuesday. The macro - situation includes the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the upcoming Two Sessions. The weekly production of hot - rolled coils is stable, with a capacity utilization rate around 79%. After the Spring Festival, terminal demand has increased, but inventory continues to rise. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis with the green bar shrinking. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,219 yuan/ton, unchanged; HC main contract position: 1,451,887 lots, a decrease of 7,712 lots; HC contract top 20 net position: 57,027 lots, a decrease of 6,229 lots; HC5 - 10 contract spread: - 19 yuan/ton, unchanged; HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 433,698 tons, an increase of 4,410 tons; HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged; Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,140 yuan/ton, unchanged; HC main contract basis: 31 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 10 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB powder ore: 755 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 5 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 2,910 yuan/ton, unchanged; 45 - port iron ore inventory: 17,096.31 tons, an increase of 153.98 tons; Sample coking plant coke inventory: 62.59 tons, an increase of 7.21 tons; Sample steel mill coke inventory: 675.06 tons, a decrease of 13.52 tons; Hebei billet inventory: 219.46 tons, an increase of 45.24 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 80.24%, an increase of 0.09%; 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 87.48%, an increase of 1.05%; Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil production: 309.61 tons, a decrease of 0.20 tons; Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 79.09%, a decrease of 0.05%; Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 94.78 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons; 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 357.37 tons, an increase of 16.90 tons; Domestic crude steel production: 6,818 tons, a decrease of 169 tons; Steel net export volume: 1,078 tons, an increase of 130 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.4499 million vehicles, a decrease of 0.8461 million vehicles; Automobile sales: 2.3465 million vehicles, a decrease of 0.9258 million vehicles; Air - conditioner production: 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units; Household refrigerator production: 10.0115 million units, an increase of 0.5695 million units; Household washing machine production: 11.975 million units, a decrease of 0.038 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The press conference of the 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held on March 3. The conference will open at 3 pm on March 4 and close on the morning of March 11, lasting for 7 days. On March 2, Baowu Group's Central and Southern Iron and Steel signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China Pingmei Shenma Group, aiming to promote the strategic deployment of tilting high - quality resources towards high - quality enterprises [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amid geopolitical conflicts, large - cap stock indices show resilience, and their anti - decline and stability are expected to continue in the current environment where the short - term situation is not fully clear. Overall, with the dual support of policy and capital, the independence of A - shares is prominent. Attention should be paid to the Two Sessions and the evolution of the Middle East situation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The 4th Session of the 14th National People's Congress will hold a press conference at 12:00 on March 4, 2026, at the Press Conference Hall of the Great Hall of the People. The spokesperson will answer questions from Chinese and foreign journalists regarding the agenda of the conference and relevant issues of the NPC. Regarding the "Iran's announcement to close the Strait of Hormuz", the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson urged all parties to stop military actions to prevent the regional situation from affecting the global economy. Regarding Trump's possible visit to China in March, the spokesperson said that China and the US are in communication, but no information is available for now. Trump said that the US will continue large - scale military operations in Iran, which may last 4 - 5 weeks, and the US is prepared for a longer - term operation [1] - In the spot market, the three major A - share indices opened lower and rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.47% to close at 4182.59 points, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.49%. In terms of industries, most sector indices declined. The petroleum and petrochemical, coal, non - ferrous metals, and national defense and military industries led the gains, while the media, computer, and social service industries led the losses. The market turnover exceeded 3 trillion yuan on that day. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the S&P 500 Index rising 0.04% to 6881.62 points and the Nasdaq rising 0.36% to 22748.86 points [2] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures declined. In terms of trading volume and open interest, both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased [2] 3.2 Strategy - In the context of geopolitical conflicts, large - cap stock indices show resilience. In the current environment where the short - term situation is not fully clear, the anti - decline and stability of large - cap stock indices are expected to continue. Overall, with the dual support of policy and capital, the independence of A - shares is prominent. Attention should be paid to the Two Sessions and the evolution of the Middle East situation [3] 3.3 Chart Data 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Charts - Charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][8][10] 3.3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on March 2, 2026. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.20%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.49%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.38%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.23%, the CSI 500 Index remained unchanged, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.98% [13] 3.3.3 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the trading volume of IF increased by 46,751 to 128,808, and the open interest increased by 13,048 to 287,543 [13][16] - Table 3 shows the basis of stock index futures. The basis of IF, IH, and IC all declined [36] - Table 4 shows the inter - period spreads of stock index futures, including the spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts, the next - quarter and current - month contracts, etc., with different changes in values [48][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From February 24 to March 2, the bond market experienced a significant adjustment, causing the sentiment indices of both sellers and buyers to decline, with the buyer sentiment dropping more [4]. - The future developments of real estate and inflation need further observation. There are potential opportunities arising from expectation gaps, and the bond market may rise during the Two Sessions. It is advisable to make arrangements during market adjustments [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index: Declined from February 24 to March 2 - The unweighted sentiment index from February 24 to March 2 was 0.1429, a decrease of 0.18 compared to February 10 - 24. Some institutions' views turned neutral, and the overall view is neutral - bullish. Among 30 institutions, 5 are bullish, 22 are neutral, and 1 is bearish [12]. - 18% of institutions are bullish, believing there may be trend - following opportunities in the bond market in Q2, significant allocation may occur in March, and it's advisable to allocate during adjustments. The recent significant appreciation of the RMB is favorable to the Chinese bond market, and interest rate cuts can be expected in the next two to three months [12]. - 79% of institutions are neutral, stating that the stock - bond seesaw effect will strengthen in March, market sentiment is relatively cautious, the winning probability of the bond market will increase after the Two Sessions, but further interest rate decline requires central bank rate cuts. The 10 - year Treasury bond may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.9% [12]. - 4% of institutions are bearish, suggesting that if inflation continues to rise, the capital trend may tighten, and the emergence of broad - money expectations in the market may be a selling point for bonds [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest Rate Bond Sentiment Index: Declined from February 24 to March 2 - The unweighted sentiment index from February 24 to March 2 was - 0.046, a decrease of 0.23 compared to February 10 - 24. The sentiment index dropped significantly, and the overall view is neutral - bearish. Among 22 institutions, 5 are bullish, 11 are neutral, and 6 are bearish [13]. - 23% of institutions are bullish, believing that the reduction of US Treasury bond funds in the market is beneficial to Chinese bonds. The geopolitical event between the US and Iran has reduced market risk appetite, which is favorable to the bond market. Historically, the bond market mostly declines after the Two Sessions [13]. - 50% of institutions are neutral, stating that the yields of medium - and short - term bonds will remain low and fluctuate under the expectation of loose funds, while the yields of long - term bonds will fluctuate upward and still face adjustment pressure. The profit - taking sentiment in the market has eased, and interest rates have declined, but the volatile pattern may continue [13]. - 27% of institutions are bearish, believing that the bond market sentiment weakened significantly this week, bearish sentiment intensified, the trading volume and activity of the forfaiting market in March are expected to increase significantly compared to January - February, and market interest rates also have some upward space [13].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "outperforming the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a low opening followed by a slight upward trend on March 2, 2026, with significant performance in the oil and gas, precious metals, aerospace, and electronic components sectors [3][4][8]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 17.09 times and 53.81 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [4][15]. - The total trading volume on March 2 was 30,462 billion, indicating a strong market activity level above the median of the past three years [4][15]. - The market is expected to focus on cyclical and technological sectors, especially with the upcoming "Two Sessions" and the clarification of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][15]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On March 2, 2026, the A-share market opened low but moved upward slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 4,188 points [8]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,182.59 points, up 0.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,465.79 points, down 0.20% [9]. - Over 70% of stocks declined, with notable gains in sectors like oil services, precious metals, and aerospace, while sectors such as television advertising and digital media saw declines [8][10]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The market is anticipated to maintain a slight upward trend, with investors advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data and policy changes [4][15]. - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as communication equipment, electronic components, aerospace, and non-ferrous metals [4][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week after the Spring Festival (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.27), the market rebounded moderately, with broad - based indexes approaching previous highs. Pro - cyclical sectors like real estate and chemicals rose due to price increase expectations, while the consumer sector回调 after concentrated holiday consumption. AI and other growth sectors spread to upstream semiconductor components. Before the specific policy directions are determined, the market may engage in games around the Two Sessions themes, and the macro - environment is generally optimistic before Trump's planned visit to China at the end of March [3][11][12]. - Last week (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.28), the bond market continued to fluctuate. Although there was an increase in the willingness to take profits after the festival, the sudden geopolitical conflict on Saturday led funds to flow into the bond market for safety, causing the yield to maturity to decline. In the short - term, the bond market is likely to continue the range - bound pattern [4][13]. - On February 27, 2026, the first four products under the new mutual - recognition fund regulations were approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, including two stock funds and two bond funds, which released the sales potential of mutual - recognition funds in the Chinese mainland [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - In the first week after the Spring Festival (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.27), the market rebounded moderately. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, ChiNext, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 rose by 1.98%, 1.08%, 1.05%, 4.32%, and 4.34% respectively. The total market trading volume rebounded to 2.5 trillion. However, several broad - based index ETFs faced slight capital outflows, with the share of some ETFs decreasing by over 2 billion [11]. - Pro - cyclical sectors like real estate and chemicals rose due to the relaxation of real - estate policies in Shanghai and the geopolitical situation in Iran. AI and other growth sectors spread to upstream semiconductor components, while the consumer sector回调 after the holiday [11]. - Geopolitical events may bring short - term investment opportunities in the stock market, but attention should be paid to whether the conflict will escalate. The market is in a policy observation window before the Two Sessions, and the "wait - and - see" attitude of investors is the core reason for the market's lack of a clear main line [12]. 3.1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Last week (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.28), the bond market continued to fluctuate. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 0.23BP to 1.32%, the 10 - year Treasury yield fell 1.46BP to 1.78%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield rose 2.66BP to 2.27%. The short - term adjustment was mainly concentrated in the ultra - long end, and the 10 - year yield recovered quickly [13]. - The sudden geopolitical conflict on Saturday led funds to flow into the bond market for safety, causing the yield to maturity to decline. In the future, the risk of short - and medium - term adjustment is limited, and the short - term is likely to continue the range - bound pattern [13]. - Last week (2026.02.23 - 2026.02.27), U.S. Treasury yields declined across the board. The 1 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell 3BP to 3.48%, the 2 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell 10BP to 3.38%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell 11BP to 3.97% [14]. - Last week (2026.02.24 - 2026.02.27), the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 1.08% to 1035.78 points. In the primary market, 10 new public REITs made progress [14][15]. 3.1.3 Public Fund Market Dynamics - On February 27, 2026, the first four products under the new mutual - recognition fund regulations were approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, including Morgan Asia Equity High - Yield Fund, Taiping Greater China New Dynamic Equity Fund, Fidelity Global Investment Fund - Hong Kong Bond Fund, and Huaxia Select RMB Investment - Grade Income Fund, covering two stock funds and two bond funds [16]. - The new regulations relaxed the sales ratio limit from 50% to 80%, releasing the sales potential of mutual - recognition funds in the Chinese mainland [16]. 3.2 Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Strategy Theme Index - **Active Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds according to performance competitiveness and style stability, and the style distribution is balanced according to the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI). The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [19][20]. 3.2.2 Investment Style Index - **Value Equity Fund Selection**: The index includes deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [23]. - **Balanced Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects 10 funds with relatively balanced and value - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [23]. - **Growth Equity Fund Selection**: The index aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies. It selects 10 funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth (H30355.CSI) [27][28]. 3.2.3 Industry Theme Index - **Pharmaceutical Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 15 funds. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [30][31]. - **Consumer Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative consumer - related indexes. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the consumer theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [31]. - **Technology Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative technology - related indexes. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [35][36]. - **High - end Manufacturing Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative high - end manufacturing - related indexes. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [40][41]. - **Cyclical Equity Fund Selection**: The index selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative cyclical - related indexes. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [43][44]. 3.2.4 Money Market Enhancement Index - **Money Market Enhancement Strategy**: The index aims for liquidity management and pursues a curve that exceeds money market funds. It mainly allocates money market funds and passive index - type bond funds (inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds). The performance benchmark is the CSI Money Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [46]. 3.2.5 Pure Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection**: The index aims for liquidity management and pursues a smooth curve on the basis of controlling drawdown. It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute return capabilities. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index+50% * Ordinary Money Market Fund Index [50]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection**: The index invests in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, aiming for stable returns while controlling drawdown. It selects 5 funds, balances coupon strategies and band - trading operations, and adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [52]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Income Plus Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection**: The index has an equity center of 10% and selects 10 funds each period. It focuses on funds with an equity center (total equity position after considering convertible bond and stock holdings) within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [55]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection**: The index has an equity center of 20% and selects 5 funds each period. It selects funds with an equity center between 15% and 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [58]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Selection**: The index has an equity center of 30% and selects 5 funds each period. It selects funds with an equity center between 25% and 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [61]. 3.2.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible Bond Fund Selection**: The index selects bond - type funds with an average proportion of convertible bond investment in bond market value of not less than 60% in the latest period and not less than 80% in the past four quarters. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds [63]. - **QDII Bond Fund Selection**: The index selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration conditions. The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds [67]. - **REITs Fund Selection**: The index selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type. The underlying assets of REITs are mainly infrastructure projects [68].

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The market experienced a mild rebound in the first week after the Spring Festival (February 24-27, 2026), with major indices approaching previous highs. The Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, ChiNext, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 saw gains of 1.98%, 1.08%, 1.05%, 4.32%, and 4.34% respectively. The total market turnover rebounded to 2.5 trillion yuan [5][6] - The easing of real estate policies in first-tier cities like Shanghai and geopolitical tensions in Iran boosted cyclical sectors such as real estate and chemicals, which rose on price increase expectations. Growth sectors like AI are beginning to extend from tight computing power to upstream semiconductor components and other supply chain segments, with price hikes observed in sub-sectors like electronic fabrics and capacitors [5][6] - Consumer sectors began to pull back after a concentrated realization of gains during the holiday [5] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market continued to fluctuate during the week (February 24-28, 2026). The 1-year government bond yield rose by 0.23 basis points to 1.32%, while the 10-year yield fell by 1.46 basis points to 1.78%. The 30-year yield increased by 2.66 basis points to 2.27%. Despite a rise in profit-taking sentiment post-holiday, a sudden geopolitical conflict led to a flight to safety, causing yields to drop [7][8] - Looking ahead, as profit-taking gradually exits and external uncertainties increase, even if the upcoming Two Sessions introduce economic targets and policies, there remains potential for exceeding expectations. The risk of mid-term adjustments may be limited, with a high probability of continued range-bound fluctuations in the short term [7][8] Public Fund Market Dynamics - On February 27, 2026, the first batch of four products under the new mutual recognition fund regulations was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. These include Morgan Asia High Dividend Fund, Taiping Greater China New Power Fund, Fidelity Global Investment Fund-Hong Kong Bond Fund, and Huaxia Selected RMB Investment Grade Income Fund, covering two equity funds and two bond funds [9]