1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Alumina, Aluminium, Tin, PTA, Short - fiber [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Manganese Ore, Coke, Coking Coal, Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand, Crude Oil [1] - **Oscillating**: Equity Index, Gold, Copper, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Silicon Iron, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Printing, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Cotton, Bean Meal, Pulp, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, BR Rubber, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The results of the Sino - US trade talks exceeded market expectations, which improved market risk appetite and had a positive impact on multiple varieties, but short - term operations still need to be cautious [1]. - The weak economy and asset shortage are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged, while silver may be more resilient in the short term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Equity Index**: Yesterday, large - cap stocks led the rise. Observe whether small and medium - cap stocks can achieve resonance and make up for the rise. In a structural market, long - position investors should be cautious [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: The short - term gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - **Silver**: Generally follows gold. Unexpected tariff results will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term silver price may be more resilient than gold [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The joint statement of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, which is positive for copper prices. However, the copper price has rebounded significantly recently, so be cautious about chasing high in the short term [1]. - **Aluminium and Alumina**: Aluminium prices continue to rebound. Alumina supply has increased, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and the short - term price may further rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and the inflow of imported goods has weakened the fundamentals. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The US inflation cooled more than expected, and the Sino - US talks results exceeded expectations. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and there are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines. Nickel prices will oscillate in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel. Stainless steel futures will oscillate and rebound in the short term, but there is still supply pressure in the long term [1]. - **Tin**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, tin prices are expected to rebound. Continuously pay attention to the resumption of production in low - grade mines [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strengthening, demand is weakening, it has entered a low - valuation range, and the demand and inventory pressure have not been alleviated [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low due to the futures discounting the spot [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, inventory has continued to accumulate, and downstream buyers still maintain rigid demand purchases [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in the window period of switching from the peak season to the off - season. The cost is loose, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the driving force for price rebound is insufficient [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is an expectation that pig iron production will peak, and pay attention to the pressure on steel products [1]. - **Manganese Ore**: There is still an expectation of decline due to the expected excess of manganese ore, and the pressure of warehouse receipts is heavy [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand has become tight [1]. - **Printing**: The supply - demand is weak, and with the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price will continue to be weak [1]. - **Soda Ash**: There are many maintenance operations in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is excess supply in the medium term, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand is relatively excessive, and they are short - allocated in the sector. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 positive spread [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: The rise of crude oil and US biodiesel news drove the rise of palm oil. The Sino - US talks may drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. After the crude oil price falls, consider short - selling palm oil. The Sino - US talks are expected to be negative for soybean oil in terms of sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit. The Sino - Canadian relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it may lead to a large decline. Consider buying volatility [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainty is still strong. The domestic cotton textile industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak oscillating trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - **Corn**: The spot price increase has slowed down, and the import corn auction has a negative impact on sentiment. The port inventory has decreased but is still at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the CO7 - C01 positive spread [1]. - **Bean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market is still digesting the pressure of spot and Brazilian selling, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiations on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Natural Rubber Latex From New Zealand**: The shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased, the terminal demand is still weak, and the overall bearish pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to short after a rebound [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The pig inventory is continuously recovering, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures price is at a large discount to the spot price. Pay attention to the pace of future production capacity release and wait for spot price guidance [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil**: The results of the Sino - US trade negotiations exceeded market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. There is a demand for rebound and repair after the previous sharp decline [1]. - **Bitumen**: The cost is dragging down, the inventory accumulation slope has decreased, and the demand is slowly recovering [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The tariff negotiation is beneficial, and the cost is strongly supported. It will be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of price decline in the long term due to loose fundamentals and weak demand [1]. - **PTA**: The PX device is under intensive maintenance, the procurement demand for PX has increased, and the high load of polyester has supported the demand for PTA [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol device is under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, the basis has dropped rapidly, and market sentiment has subsided [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The slightly tight situation of PTA strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high - basis situation [1]. - **Styrene**: The improvement of Sino - US tariff policies has stimulated market speculative demand, the pure benzene price has gradually strengthened, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1]. - **Urea**: There are still positive expectations in the market, the downstream follow - up is okay, and the market negotiation focus has risen. However, due to price stability policies, the upward price space is limited [1]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strengthening, and the short - term price will oscillate strongly. The medium - long - term spot market may change from strong to weak oscillation [1]. - **PE, PP, PVC**: Macro - factors are positive, and they will oscillate strongly. PVC has a weak fundamental but may rebound in the short term [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, but the macro - positive factors support the futures price, which will oscillate [1]. - **Propane and Butane**: The CP has decreased, the MB has increased, and the regional price difference of propane has narrowed. Butane is in the seasonal off - season [1].

Group 1: Company Growth and Performance - The company anticipates new performance growth points from the gradual release of laboratory capacity established in previous periods [2] - The main business of the company, material analysis testing and instrumentation, is experiencing steady growth in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 [3] Group 2: Talent Development and Innovation - The company has developed a comprehensive internal talent training system, including expert guidance and job rotation, and collaborates with major universities to attract top talent [2] - Continuous investment in research and development is being made to enhance the capabilities of the subsidiary, Nack Microbeam, particularly in high-end scientific instruments [6] Group 3: Market Position and Competition - The company emphasizes brand building and technological accumulation to maintain its competitive edge and profitability despite aggressive pricing strategies from competitors [4] - The company aims to provide integrated solutions and expand its testing service areas while accelerating the development and upgrade of high-end scientific instruments to increase market share [6] Group 4: Laboratory Expansion and Operations - The company has established testing laboratories in various locations across China, including Jiangsu, Shandong, Liaoning, Sichuan, Shaanxi, Hunan, and Hebei, with several now in stable operation [5] - The utilization rate of the newly operational laboratories in Jiangsu and Shenyang is steadily improving as the company focuses on releasing capacity and enhancing service offerings [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant challenges due to a decline in stock price and industry competition, but it remains committed to long-term growth and innovation despite short-term fluctuations [2][3][23]. Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported a main revenue of 1.382 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a slight increase of 0.07% year-on-year [25]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -42.7699 million yuan, an improvement of 51.09% year-on-year [25]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 3.86%, indicating a modest increase in profitability [25]. Group 2: Stock and Investment Strategies - The company has been exploring stock repurchase and shareholding increase strategies but has not yet implemented significant actions [2][3][4]. - The stock price has fallen significantly, currently trading far below net asset value, raising concerns among investors [2][3][13]. - The company is considering the impact of national policies on stock repurchase and is studying further actions [2][4][18]. Group 3: Industry Context - The BOPET industry is experiencing a concentrated release of production capacity, with an annual growth rate of over 20% in capacity release over the past three years [23]. - Despite the competitive landscape, the overall market demand in the industry is still growing at a rate of over 10% annually [23]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the BOPET industry, focusing on innovation and market expansion to maintain its competitive edge [23]. Group 4: Product Development and Market Strategy - The company is actively developing new products, with 32 new product development and technology projects planned for the year [19][25]. - The MLCC release film is expected to reach a production capacity of 500 million square meters, contributing significantly to revenue [24]. - The company is also exploring strategic partnerships with leading battery manufacturers to enhance its market position [19][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure in Q1 2025 due to rising raw material prices, but it is expected to benefit from long-term capacity release and growth in both the supporting and replacement segments [1][9]. - The company has strong growth potential from its Serbia base, with a projected EPS of RMB 1.46 for 2025 and RMB 1.68 for 2026, along with a new forecast of RMB 1.86 for 2027 [4][9]. - The target price is set at RMB 20.44, based on a 14x PE for 2025 [4][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected at RMB 22.06 billion and RMB 1.75 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 9.39% and 26.01% [4][9]. - For Q4 2024, revenue and net profit are expected to be RMB 6.11 billion and RMB 0.041 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 8.41% and a significant decline in net profit of 90.59% [4][9]. - In Q1 2025, revenue is projected at RMB 5.70 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 12.92%, while net profit is expected to decline by 22.78% to RMB 0.34 billion [4][9]. Production and Sales - The company’s tyre production for 2024 is expected to reach 89.12 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.65%, with sales volume at 85.45 million units, up 9.57% [4][9]. - In Q1 2025, tyre production and sales are projected at 23.03 million and 21.41 million units, respectively, with sales volume increasing by 12.78% year-on-year [4][9]. Strategic Developments - The company is advancing its "7+5" layout strategy, with the Serbia base now in production and supplying the European market [4][9]. - A new project in Brazil is planned, which will have a production capacity of 12 million semi-steel tyres, 2.4 million full-steel tyres, and other products [4][9].

原材料涨价致业绩承压，拟建巴西项目基地 玲珑轮胎(601966) ——玲珑轮胎 2024 年报及 2025Q1 季报点评 本报告导读： 原材料涨价致 2025Q1 业绩承压，塞尔维亚项目产能快速爬坡中，兵器公司公告拟 投建巴西项目。公司将持续受益于中长期产能释放，配套和替换端发力。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 20,165 | 22,058 | 24,932 | 26,942 | 28,205 | | (+/-)% | 18.6% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 8.1% | 4.7% | | 净利润（归母） | 1,391 | 1,752 | 2,134 | 2,462 | 2,717 | | (+/-)% | 376.9% | 26.0% | 21.8% | 15.3% | 10.4% | | 每股净收益（元） | 0.95 | 1.20 | 1.46 | 1.68 | 1.86 | | ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Stock Issues - The company's stock price has significantly declined, currently far below its net asset value, raising concerns about its investment value and the lack of action from major shareholders regarding buybacks and increases [1][2][29]. - The company has conducted multiple buybacks and is considering further actions, but specific plans are still under research [1][2][29]. - The company reported a gross margin of only 3.86% in Q1 2025, despite stable product prices, indicating challenges in profitability [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Competition and Market Dynamics - The BOPET industry is experiencing intense competition, with some new entrants engaging in price wars despite a self-regulatory declaration aimed at reducing internal competition [2][3]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the BOPET market, with a comprehensive product range, but is currently facing short-term fluctuations due to industry capacity releases [2][3][4]. - The market demand for BOPET products is expected to grow at over 10% annually, driven by domestic replacements of imports and expanding applications [4][10]. Group 3: Product Development and Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve a production capacity of 500 million square meters for MLCC release films within the year, with a projected market value based on product structure [4][10]. - There are ongoing efforts to develop new products, with 32 new product and technology development projects planned for the year [8][10]. - The company is exploring strategic collaborations with leading battery manufacturers to enhance its market position [6][10]. Group 4: Financial Health and Management Responses - The company's asset-liability ratio was reported at 32.12% at the end of Q1 2025, indicating a healthy financial status despite recent challenges [10]. - Management emphasizes the need for maintaining operational stability and innovation to navigate the current market environment [10]. - The company is committed to improving investor relations and enhancing communication with stakeholders to rebuild confidence [5][10].

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨温氏股份（300498.SZ） [Table_Title] 温氏股份 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报点评： 成本优化驱动盈利反转，猪鸡双板块增长强劲 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2024 年实现营收 1049.24 亿元，同比增长 16.68%，现归属净利润 92.30 亿元，扣非后净 利润 95.73 亿元，同比均扭亏为盈；2025 年一季度实现营收 243.31 亿元，同比增长 11.37%， 实现归属净利润 20.01 亿元，同比扭亏为盈，是近四年来公司首次实现一季度盈利。我们看好 公司作为猪鸡养殖龙头企业，凭借行业领先的成本管控优势和稳健的产能释放，持续实现盈利 增长。我们预计 2025 年和 2026 年公司实现归母净利润 100 亿元、50 亿元，重点推荐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈佳 顾熀乾 SAC：S0490513080003 SAC：S0490519060003 SFC：BQT624 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 温氏股份（300498. ...

Group 1 - The company has new production lines for BOPA and diaphragm products that are gradually ramping up capacity, with total capacity expected to be released progressively [2] - In Q1, the company's revenue increased by 13.63% year-on-year to 579 million yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19.32% to 48.3 million yuan, primarily due to the high costs associated with new BOPA film and diaphragm capacity not being fully released [2] - The company has a shareholder reduction plan in place, with a commitment to not sell below 3.91 yuan per share, and emphasizes continuous profitability and cash dividends since its listing [2] Group 2 - The company's diaphragm products have entered the supply chains of leading battery manufacturers such as BYD, CATL, and Samsung SDI, and plans to further reduce BOPA film costs through new production lines [3] - The PE pipeline business will focus on urban old pipeline renovation and expansion into non-gas fields, with RTP pipes having achieved small-scale production [3]

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 579 million yuan, an increase of 13.63% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 48.3 million yuan, a decrease of 19.32% [2] - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 154.74 million yuan, while in Q1 2025, the net profit was 48.3 million yuan [4] - The company’s revenue growth in 2024 was 4.93%, reaching 2.748 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Production Capacity and Projects - The company has a current production capacity of 66,500 tons for film products, with an additional 38,000 tons from a new BOPA film project that has not yet fully released its capacity [3] - The lithium-ion battery separator project is under construction, with plans for gradual production [4] - The company has 4.9 billion square meters of existing separator capacity, with additional dry and wet separator projects planned [4] Group 3: Market Conditions and Competition - The market for PE gas pipelines has seen a decline in demand due to the economic downturn and real estate market issues, leading to a reduction in sales expectations [5] - The competition in the separator and film markets is intense, with the company maintaining a strong reputation and customer base [6] - The overall industry for separators is experiencing oversupply, although high-end separators are in tight balance [10] Group 4: Strategic Plans and Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain its PE pipeline sales target at 95,000 tons for 2025, with BOPA film sales targeted at 85,600 tons and lithium-ion battery separator sales at 85.08 million square meters [12] - Future growth points include the completion of new projects and effective capacity release [4] - The company plans to enhance brand awareness and market presence through various promotional activities [6] Group 5: Shareholder and Market Confidence - The company has consistently paid dividends since its listing, aiming to enhance shareholder value despite recent stock price declines [10] - There are no current plans for stock buybacks to boost investor confidence [11] - The management acknowledges the need for improved communication and transparency with investors regarding market performance and company strategies [14]

Summary of LiuGong Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - LiuGong Co., Ltd. reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 260 million yuan in Q1 2025, ranking 7th among steel companies, an improvement of 11 positions year-on-year, attributed to internal management optimization, capacity release at the Fangchenggang base, raw material structure optimization, and macroeconomic improvements [2][4] Key Points Financial Performance - In 2024, LiuGong achieved an operating income of 70.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 32 million yuan, reducing losses by 57.23% year-on-year, ranking 22nd among 36 steel companies, an improvement of 6 positions [4] - Q1 2025 net profit of 260 million yuan represents a significant year-on-year increase, with a ranking improvement of 11 positions [2][4] Operational Insights - The Fangchenggang base's first phase is completed, with no specific plans for the second phase yet; the focus is on consolidating reform results and improving product structure [2][7] - Steel industry demand has fluctuated in Q1 2025, with stable demand for industrial high-line and full-diameter products; however, U.S. tariff policies have negatively impacted downstream demand, particularly affecting cold-rolled plate prices [2][8] Raw Material Strategy - LiuGong has gradually increased the proportion of imported coking coal, primarily from Mongolia, Australia, and Canada, with an average import ratio of around 50% and a peak of 60% for injection coal [2][8] - The company maintains cooperation with domestic large mines to mitigate potential risks associated with raw material supply [2][8] Production and Cost Management - Q1 2025 production volume increased year-on-year, with no significant changes expected in Q2 production plans, which will depend on profitability and policy arrangements [2][9] - The cost of iron water at the headquarters is approximately 200 yuan/ton higher than that of Guangxi Steel, with expected gross profit margins for steel products declining to 6%-7% [2][11][12] Environmental Compliance and Future Investments - LiuGong has completed ultra-low emission requirements and plans to invest about 4 billion yuan in related projects in 2025, with potential reductions in future fixed asset investments [3][17] - The company will carefully consider dividend policies in light of its good performance in Q1 2025, focusing on shareholder value management [3][18] Research and Development - R&D expenses have fluctuated significantly, with Q1 2025 expenses at 160 million yuan, down from 500 million yuan in Q1 2024; future R&D spending is expected to stabilize around 3.5% of revenue, focusing on specialty steel and technological innovation [16] Market Conditions - The steel industry is experiencing downward pressure on profitability, with cold-rolled prices under pressure leading to potential shifts in production focus if conditions do not improve [12][14] Taxation - LiuGong expects to maintain a low income tax rate due to accumulated losses exceeding 2 billion yuan over the past few years, with no income tax anticipated for Q2 and Q3 2025 [13] Conclusion LiuGong Co., Ltd. is navigating a challenging steel market with strategic management improvements, a focus on raw material sourcing, and compliance with environmental regulations, while also considering shareholder returns and future investments in R&D and production capacity.