文 ｜ 扈世民 张昕玥 张庆焕 ▍ 航空：波音交付扰动，供给增速或进一步降至1 ~ 2%，关注五一前布局机会。 对美关税反制提升产业链采购成本，行业供给进一步受限，2 0 2 5年国内三大航飞机引进增速或降至1%~ 2%。 中国出台一系列关于美国对华加 征关税的反制措施，目前源自美国的进口商品需缴纳1 2 5%的关税。我国在商用飞机和关键零部件方面对进口产品依赖度较高，2 0 2 4年进口航 空航天器机器零件中来自美国的商品金额占比5 0%，因此产业链受关税影响较大。一方面，面对显著上升的采购成本，我们预计国内各航司将 暂停波音飞机的引进计划。假设从4月9日起国内停止引进波音飞机但保持退出计划（按照各公司此前披露的计划，2 0 2 5~2 7年国内三大航波音 订单1 8 8架，占整体订单3 2%），则我们测算2 0 2 5 / 2 0 2 6年三者的机队增速或降低1 . 5 p c ts/ 2 . 1 p c ts至2 . 9%/ 2 . 9%，若假设延迟波音的退出计 划，则机队增速或降低0 . 3 p c t/ 0 . 8 p c t至4 . 1%/ 4 . 2%。另一方面，航司日常维修所需的进口航材也将面 ...

文 ｜ 扈世民 张昕玥 张庆焕 应对外部冲击，政策层近期高度重视"做大做强国内大循环"，采取以旧换新补贴扩容、特定群体补贴、类"消费券"政策等政策组合提振内需，关 注受益内需政策加码的航空、物流和区域集运龙头。1）航空：面对显著上升的采购成本，我们预计国内各航司将暂停波音飞机的引进计划，假 设从4月9日起国内停止引进波音飞机但保持退出计划，则我们测算2 0 2 5 / 2 0 2 6年三大航的机队增速或降低1 . 5 p c ts/ 2 . 1 p c ts至2 . 9%/ 2 . 9%。若假设 延迟波音的退出计划叠加航材采购成本上升，我们预计2 0 2 5年国内三大航飞机引进增速或降至1%~2%。关税反制进一步限制航空业供给，票价 拐点渐近，国际油价下跌释放利润空间，关注五一前航空布局机会。2）物流：以旧换新国补扩容及潜在的消费刺激政策有望传导至需求端，选 取品类相关度高的顺周期龙头。3）区域集运：复盘历史，积极的财政政策有望推动大宗商品需求的修复，2 0 2 4年内贸行业CR3接近8 0%，预计 需求变化将传导至运价端，同时潜在转运需求有望传导至亚洲区域集装箱船东，建议关注受益于内需修复弹性的内贸集运龙头 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆ indicates a slightly bullish/bearish view with weak trading operability [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ★☆★ - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ suggests a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability [1] - **Coke**: ★☆★ - **Coking Coal**: ★☆★ - **Silicon Manganese**: ★★☆ represents a clear bearish/bullish trend with an ongoing market movement [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★☆ Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic. The cost side of carbon elements is declining, and the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, inventory, and demand. Different varieties have different trends, mainly including weak trends for steel, coke, and coking coal, and a sideways trend for iron ore [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel futures market is weak today. Thread steel's apparent demand has rebounded significantly in the short term, but its sustainability is uncertain. Hot - rolled coil demand has improved, and inventory has continued to decline [1] - **Supply and Demand**: The production of thread steel has decreased slightly, and the inventory has been depleted faster. The production of hot - rolled coil has stabilized. The profit per ton of steel has declined, and the resumption of blast furnace production has slowed down [1] - **Downstream Industries**: Infrastructure and manufacturing have improved, and the decline in real - estate sales and new construction has narrowed marginally but remains weak. Exports are affected by US tariff hikes, and domestic demand policies need to be strengthened [1] - **Outlook**: The market outlook is pessimistic, and the weak market situation is difficult to change. Attention should be paid to the intensity of peak - season demand and changes in domestic and foreign macro - policies [1] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore futures market is oscillating today [2] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments have increased slightly, and domestic arrivals have decreased this period but remain above the annual average. Port inventory has been significantly depleted, and there is a seasonal growth expectation [2] - **Demand**: Terminal demand is resilient, steel mills have certain profits, and the resumption of hot - metal production has slowed but still has room for further growth [2] - **Outlook**: The overall trend of iron ore is expected to be oscillating, and the price has certain short - term support [2] Coke - **Market Performance**: The coke price has oscillated downward today [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, and coke production has also increased slightly after the first price increase. The overall inventory depletion is poor, and the inventory remains high [3] - **Outlook**: The coke futures premium has been compressed, and the price is affected by inventory and tariff disturbances. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [3] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal price has oscillated downward today [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Due to individual accidents and working - face switching, the production has been affected. The spot auction market has weakened marginally, and the terminal inventory is still high. The total inventory is basically flat, and downstream purchases are for rigid demand. Imported Mongolian coal transactions are weak [5] - **Outlook**: The carbon - element supply is abundant, and hot - metal production may reach its peak. The price is affected by inventory and tariff disturbances. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [5] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The silicon manganese price has declined today [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Manganese ore port inventory has been increasing, and the price of manganese ore has declined. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, and the supply of silicon manganese has decreased slightly from a high level. The overall inventory has increased significantly [6] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short on rebounds as the manganese ore inventory is increasing [6] Silicon Iron - **Market Performance**: The silicon iron price has declined today [7] - **Supply and Demand**: Affected by tariff policies, it follows the steel trend. Hot - metal production has increased slightly, export demand has decreased marginally, and metal magnesium production has decreased. The supply has decreased, and the inventory has increased [7] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short on rebounds due to its weak fundamentals [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a volume contraction with a mix of weight protection and structural differentiation, where defensive sectors and potential policy-driven directions are performing well [1] - China's Q1 economic data exceeded expectations, with GDP growth rate at 5.4% year-on-year and March retail sales growth at 5.9%, both surpassing previous values and forecasts [1] - March exports increased by 12.4% year-on-year, significantly higher than expectations, indicating that tariff impacts have not yet manifested [1] Group 2 - Investment focus is shifting towards policy expectations and data validation, with short-term attention on policy drivers, domestic consumption sectors, and defensive dividend assets [2] - Long-term focus includes the potential for domestic substitution in the technology sector, while also considering gold and military industries for risk hedging [2] - The real estate industry chain and large consumption sectors are expected to receive further policy support, enhancing their investment appeal [2]

4月21日，上证指数收涨0.45%，创业板指涨1.59%。黄金股掀涨停潮，宇树机器人、通用航空、跨境电 商、数字货币、AI应用、消费电子、算力、新能源车等题材表现活跃；银行股回调。市场逾4300股上 涨。高息策略指数成分股方面，焦点科技涨超7%，富奥股份、海澜之家涨超6%，威孚高科、宁波华翔 涨超3%。 相关产品：高股息ETF(563180) 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 以上内容与数据，与界面有连云频道立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 消息面上，2024年年报披露进入高峰期，上市公司分红预案总额突破1.1万亿元，多家公司股东建议分 红，以回报投资者。在新国九条"政策推动下，A股市场对长期资金的吸引力显著增强，年报后的红利 资产备受市场关注。截至4月21日，A股已累计有2262家上市公司披露2024年年报，其中1877家盈利， 385家亏损，合计营收为48.6万亿元，同比增0.17%，合计净利润为4.53万亿元，同比增5.24%。已发布 年报公司中有1696家公司还发布了年度权益分派方案（包括派息、转增及送股），其中1375家年度权益 分派方案为董事会预案，264家方案获股东大会通过，57 ...

Investment Rating - The overall industry investment rating is positive, with expectations of returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [28] Core Views - March retail sales data exceeded expectations, indicating a recovery in consumption and stabilization of fundamentals in the food and beverage sector [5][14] - The food and beverage sector saw a slight increase, with the SW food and beverage index rising by 0.32% [5][14] - The report highlights strong performance in the snack and beverage segments, with specific companies showing significant growth [6][24] Summary by Sections Sub-industry Ratings - No specific ratings for liquor, beverages, and food categories [3] - Recommended companies include: - Luzhou Laojiao: Buy - Shanxi Fenjiu: Buy - Jinshiyuan: Buy - Yingjia Gongjiu: Buy - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy - Youyou Food: Buy - Zhujiang Beer: Hold - Qingdao Beer: Hold - Yanjing Beer: Hold [3][27] Industry Performance - March retail sales total increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with restaurant income at 423.5 billion yuan, up 5.6% [5][14] - The SW food and beverage sector ranked 17th among 31 sub-industries [5][14] - Top-performing stocks included Anji Food (+50.00%), Kangbiter (+32.81%), and Maiqu'er (+24.09%) [5][14] Alcohol Sector Insights - The liquor sector is expected to see valuation recovery driven by domestic policy expectations, with a focus on companies with strong earnings certainty [18][21] - The SW liquor index decreased by 0.49%, but retail sales for tobacco and alcohol showed a recovery trend [18] - Recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jinshiyuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu [21] Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The consumer goods sector is favored due to low-level consumption elasticity, with a focus on companies with strong Q1 performance [23] - The snack segment saw significant growth, driven by innovative products and new channels [23] - Key stocks to watch include Youyou Food, Zhujiang Beer, and Dongpeng Beverage [23] Beer Sector Updates - The beer sector is expected to benefit from improved consumption data and a significant recovery in the restaurant sector [24] - The SW beer index is anticipated to recover in Q2, with low inventory levels and favorable weather conditions [24] - Recommended companies include Zhujiang Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Qingdao Beer [24][26] Beverage Sector Updates - Dongpeng Beverage reported strong Q1 results, with revenue growth of 39.2% year-on-year [26] - The company is expanding its product offerings and enhancing its market presence [26] - Other beverage leaders are also expected to perform well in the upcoming season [26]