瑞达期货研究院 「2025.04.30」 生猪市场周报 节日需求提高，支撑价格波动 研究员 ：柳瑜萍 期货从业资格证号 F0308127 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0012251 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：059586778969 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议：等待反弹抛空机会。 3 行情回顾：生猪价格继续下跌，主力合约周度下跌1.7% 。 行情展望：供应端，五一假期临近，部分养殖端和二育出栏大猪，出栏均重提高。标肥价差由负转正， 且养殖成本提高，二育风险提高，入场积极性减弱，关注前期二育出栏情况，供应后移产生的压力或 在5月中下旬后逐渐显现。根据生猪养殖周期，二三季度对应母猪产能处于增产周期，中期供应压力 趋增。需求端，上周屠宰厂开工率再度上升，预期五一假期期间终端需求有所好转，但节后需求或再 度降温，开工率或呈现先增后减趋势，少数地区被动入库现象犹存。总体来说，节假日需求增加，或 推动节后价格短暂反弹，但是基本面偏弱，后市将再度承压。 「 期货市场情况」 本周期货下跌 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源：文化 ...

去年稀土企业业绩下滑明显，整体不容乐观。 智通财经记者 | 田鹤琪 据界面不完全统计，中国稀土(000831.SZ)、北方稀土(600111.SH)、盛和资源(600392.SH)、厦门钨业 (600549.SH)、广晟有色(600259.SH)这五家头部稀土企业中，只有厦门钨业实现净利增长，其余四家公 司均出现显著下降。 其中，北方稀土净利降幅超五成；盛和资源净利降幅近四成；中国稀土和广晟有色则陷入亏损，亏损额 分别达2.87亿元和2.99亿元，这也是两家公司近三年来净利润首次出现亏损。 营收方面，五家公司均出现不同程度的降幅，其中广晟有色降幅最大。 | | | 五大稀土龙头2024年业绩概况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公司 | 营收 | 营收增速 | 净利润 | 净利增速 | | 广晟有色 | 126 | -39.46% | -2.99 | -246.77% | | 中国稀土 | 30.27 | -24.09% | -2.87 | -168.69% | | 盛和资源 | 113.71 | -36.39% | 2.07 | -37.73% | | 北方稀 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing changes and challenges in the five new towns surrounding Shanghai, highlighting the discrepancies between rising inventory and declining transaction volumes in the real estate market [1][4][15]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The inventory of properties in the outer ring of Shanghai has been steadily increasing, with approximately 50% of listings located outside the outer ring [4][6]. - Since 2021, the transaction share in the five new towns has been declining, indicating a potential market saturation or lack of demand [4][12]. - The data shows that while the number of listings has increased, the sales volume has not kept pace, leading to a growing inventory problem [10][18]. Group 2: Regional Analysis - Each of the five new towns—Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, and Lingang—exhibits similar trends of high listings but low sales, particularly in the mid-range price segment of 2-5 million [6][10]. - Jiading has seen a significant increase in listings from 18 in 2021 to 56 in 2023, yet sales have remained relatively stable [9][10]. - The overall market dynamics indicate that while the outer ring's inventory is rising, the transaction volume is decreasing, particularly in the five new towns [12][20]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the five new towns are under pressure due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with a notable shift in market sentiment since 2022 [16][18]. - The population influx and industrial development in these areas are critical factors, but they do not directly correlate with the current real estate transaction trends [18][20]. - The future of these new towns may depend on addressing the current inventory and transaction imbalance, as well as enhancing their attractiveness to potential buyers [22].

国内煤焦油(主要指高温煤焦油)市场经历了年内连续攀高后，3月初触顶回落，开启连续下探行情，并 于4月中下旬开始加速探底。截至4月22日，国内煤焦油主流成交价已至3100元~3300元(吨价，下同)， 相比3月初高点跌幅达24%左右，部分低端产品价格已跌破3000元，再创新低，引发业内观望气氛渐 浓。 对此，市场资深评论员邵会文表示，本轮连续下探行情主要源自需求旺季转淡、供应预期增长、下游企 业累库等利空因素，另外受惠于年初一路飙升行情的贸易企业获利了结，快速释放库存也加速行情调整 步伐。受市场惯性思维影响，不排除后市仍有调整空间的可能性。 需求由旺转淡 市场一线信息显示，4月22日安徽淮北临涣焦化股份公司高温煤焦油拍卖成交价格至3322元，首钢水城 钢铁(集团)有限责任公司高温煤焦油拍卖最终成交价格执行在2750元，西南地区成交价格跌至2750元 ~2800元，各地成交价格不断创新低。 邵会文表示，引发煤焦油价格连创新低的主要原因是需求减弱。随着金三银四旺季即将结束，下游消费 逐步进入淡季。进入4月以来，国内轮胎库存消化略显缓慢，业者对煤焦油后市价格看跌，进货积极性 较弱，随用随采。从终端市场可以看出，整个煤 ...

这种困境背后，是市场供需关系的深刻变化。一方面，新政放松限购刺激了部分刚需下场，但整体购买力依然有 限；另一方面，购房者愈发谨慎，货比三家，选择性价比最高的房源。于是，刚需房房东们只能陷入无休止的竞 价内卷，以价换量成为无奈之举。 次新房房东：坚守价格，成交僵持 与刚需房房东的困境不同，市区次新房的房东们则显得相对淡定。他们咬死价格不降，甚至逆势涨价，试图在市 场中占据主动。确实，有一部分次新房源在成交价上实现了反弹，如大虹桥蟠龙天地一期、唐镇仁恒东郊花园 等。然而，这种涨价并未得到买家的广泛认可，成交僵持成为常态。 搜狐号@商业运营小纸条 4 在楼市风云变幻的当下，上海的房东群体正经历着一场前所未有的考验。房价与房租的双重下滑，让无数房东的 心态濒临崩溃。这不仅仅是数字上的波动，更是对家庭资产、生活规划乃至心理承受能力的全方位挑战。 刚需房房东：割肉求生，竞价内卷 对于总价500万以下的刚需房房东而言，市场仿佛进入了一场残酷的"割肉"大赛。无论是市区无学区的老破小，还 是郊区的动迁房、远郊商品房，都面临着巨大的销售压力。挂牌量激增，竞品如林，房东们不得不一再降价，以 期在茫茫房源中脱颖而出。然而，即便如此， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the shipping rates are expected to return to normal levels in 2025, with a healthy supply-demand relationship supporting medium to long-term freight rates [4][5]. - The company disposed of four old MR vessels in 2024, generating asset disposal income of 267 million yuan, and currently has ten vessels on order [3][5]. - The management is exploring ways to use capital reserves to cover undistributed profits, aiming to create conditions for future dividends, which could enhance investor return expectations [5]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 64.75 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.921 billion yuan, up 23.4% [10]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.404 billion yuan, 1.562 billion yuan, and 1.732 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [6][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.29 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.44 [6].

编辑丨苏木 文丨苏木 本文陈述所有内容皆有可靠信息来源，赘述在文章结尾 "需要什么？马上帮你换，免费！" 虽然每年都有大量的人才涌入杭州这座城市，但是今年第一季度的房租和去年相比竟然降了10.7%！ 网友直呼怪不得房东都是有求必应，原来是房子实在租不出去，急了！ 真是和前几年"提灯定损"的房东形成了鲜明的对比。 那么这样的群体到达一座陌生的城市首先就需要找到一个落脚点，那么就有了租房平台和企业员工所说的"金三银四"，租房子的黄金时间。 因为租房子的人变多了，一些房产行业从业人员赚取"中介费"的机会也就随之而来。 可是今年却和往年不同，杭州的所有房东集体降低了房租的租金！俗话说，事出反常必有因，到底发生什么了让今年的租房市场如此反常呢？ 供应大于需求 根据杭州的一家房产租赁公司的数据来看，去年的时候杭州的租金基本上保持在56元左右每月每平米，但是今年的三月份开始，价格已经降到了 49元左右，相对来说，今年杭州的房租降了10.7%。 难道一直被房东拿捏的租客真的"翻身把歌唱"了吗？ 金三银四将不复存在？ 每年的三月份，杭州这座城市就会迎来一大批复工的打工人，或者是选择离开家乡，换一座城市继续打拼的外来人口。 从数 ...

Core Viewpoint - Northern Rare Earth reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2024, primarily due to falling prices of key rare earth products, yet it remains a leader in the industry with the largest market capitalization [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Northern Rare Earth's operating revenue was 32.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.58% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.004 billion yuan, down 57.64% year-on-year [1]. Production and Sales - The production of rare earth oxides decreased by 7.26% to approximately 15,500 tons, while sales increased by 6.07% to about 30,600 tons, with inventory down 39.61% to around 23,000 tons [2]. - Rare earth salts production fell by 1.60% to about 125,300 tons, with sales rising by 19.26% to approximately 104,100 tons, but inventory increased by 18.30% to about 137,600 tons [2]. - Rare earth metals production rose by 19.84% to about 36,900 tons, with sales up 13.77% to approximately 35,300 tons, although inventory surged by 78.12% to 3,606.90 tons [2]. Market Outlook - The overall rare earth market is expected to remain weak in 2024, but with gradual improvements in supply and demand dynamics, the price fluctuations of major rare earth products have narrowed compared to the past three years [1]. Future Goals - For 2025, Northern Rare Earth aims to achieve operating revenue of at least 37.217 billion yuan and a total profit of over 2.820 billion yuan, while ensuring alignment between employee income, economic efficiency, and labor productivity [2].