Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on non-ferrous metal stocks, suggesting to buy on dips [2][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that the recent decline in metal prices has ended, leading to increased purchasing activity from downstream buyers. It emphasizes a long-term bullish view on non-ferrous resources, particularly copper, gold, silver, aluminum, rare earths, tungsten, antimony, and cobalt [1][3]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen a significant performance with a 1-month absolute return of 5.9%, a 6-month return of 24.7%, and a 12-month return of 88.3% [3]. - The report highlights the recent fluctuations in metal prices, with copper inventory increasing by 0.46 thousand tons to 148.9 thousand tons, while LME copper inventory decreased by 5,075 tons to 148 thousand tons [3][6]. - The report notes that the price of gallium has increased by 3.74% due to tight supply and demand dynamics, while molybdenum prices have decreased by 2.40% due to weakened demand [3][6]. Key Metal Insights - **Copper**: The report anticipates a decrease in copper inventory due to pre-holiday stocking, supporting copper prices in the medium to long term. Key companies to watch include Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Jiangxi Copper [3][6]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a slight increase in aluminum inventory but expects a positive trend in aluminum prices and profits due to improved downstream consumption [3][6]. - **Cobalt**: The report mentions that the Democratic Republic of Congo is considering extending its cobalt export ban for two more months, which could lead to a supply shortage and price increases for cobalt intermediates [6][3]. Stock Performance - The report identifies the top-performing stock in the non-ferrous sector as Boqian New Materials, which saw a weekly increase of 14.76%, while Xianglu Tungsten experienced the largest decline at -12.66% [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend since August, with significant increases in indices and market enthusiasm for buying [2] Group 1: Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly companies focused on computing power and optical modules, has been the main driver of the recent index rise, with leading firms like Cambricon and Zhongji Xuchuang seeing their stock prices double in just half a month [4] - Xinyisheng's stock price surged threefold in a month and a half, setting a benchmark in the technology sector [4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Nonferrous Metals - The nonferrous metals sector is emerging as a potential investment opportunity, with a focus on three key commodities that have strong demand and price increase expectations [5][6] - The traditional consumption peak in September and October, combined with a loose macroeconomic environment, supports a strong upward trend in copper prices, driven by recovering demand in key downstream industries such as electricity, home appliances, and new energy [6][7] Group 3: Lithium Demand Outlook - The rapid development of the electric vehicle and energy storage industries is expected to drive strong and sustained demand for lithium, with the penetration rate of electric vehicles in China nearing 50% [10] - By 2025, global lithium demand is projected to reach 139.7 thousand tons of LCE, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%, with the electric vehicle sector being the core growth driver [10][11] Group 4: Cobalt Market Dynamics - The cobalt market is anticipated to experience a new round of price increases due to tight supply and strong demand, with recent price increases observed in cobalt-related products [12] - The supply side remains constrained, with high raw material prices and cautious production schedules among companies, leading to a tight inventory situation that is unlikely to ease in the short term [12] Group 5: Overall Investment Value of Nonferrous Metals - In the context of a global interest rate cut cycle, the nonferrous metals sector is increasingly recognized for its investment value as a typical cyclical industry [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector has performed well this year, but investors need to consider various risks before making investment decisions [1] - The biggest common risks facing the non-ferrous metal sector include the impact of a strong US dollar on metal prices, changes in demand from sectors like real estate and new energy vehicles, and policy factors including geopolitical changes [1][2] - For aggressive investors, it is suggested to focus on upstream resources due to the increasing market risk appetite, while conservative investors may find more stable opportunities in midstream and downstream sectors related to processing and manufacturing [2] Group 2 - There are currently eight main indices related to non-ferrous metals or rare earths, most of which have seen significant gains exceeding 30% this year, with industrial metals like copper and aluminum being key sub-sectors [3] - When selecting related ETF products, it is crucial to pay attention to industry distribution, as different ETFs may have varying exposures to industrial metals, rare metals, precious metals, or energy metals [4] - Investors should also consider the scale of the ETF, its fee structure, and the issuing company when making investment decisions [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a rise due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to increased prices for metals like cobalt, copper, and rare earths [1] - As of September 4, 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) increased by 0.80%, with significant gains in stocks such as Yunnan Zhenye (3.71%) and Ganfeng Lithium (3.60%) [1] - The Pacific Securities report indicates that the prices of most non-ferrous metals were strong in the first half of 2025, resulting in improved performance for many companies in the sector [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index accounted for 50.35% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth [2] - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index and reflects the overall performance of listed companies in this sector [1][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, driven by various factors including supply constraints and recovering demand in the domestic market [1] - The aluminum sector is supported by low social inventory and a rebound in real estate and automotive orders, with expectations of high aluminum prices due to rising interest in Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are gaining attention as U.S. employment data shows downward pressure, increasing the probability of a rate cut in September, which enhances gold's investment appeal [1] Group 2 - The copper market faces production disruptions in major overseas mining regions, with declining resource grades and insufficient capital expenditure limiting long-term supply, while demand from the renewable energy sector is expected to create additional growth opportunities [1] - Macro-level support comes from ongoing domestic growth stabilization policies, increased infrastructure investment, and a recovering manufacturing sector, alongside expectations of loose overseas liquidity, which could catalyze the metal sector [1] - Overall, the non-ferrous metal industry is on an upward trend in terms of prosperity, with attractive investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400.SH) [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Cobalt Industry - Global cobalt demand is expected to grow, reaching 240,000 to 250,000 tons by 2025, with the U.S. storage plan having a noticeable impact on market demand, particularly in the metal cobalt sector [1][2][3] - The supply-demand dynamics in the cobalt industry are shifting due to the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), leading to reduced supply, while the U.S. storage plan and demand for ternary materials from large cylindrical batteries are driving demand [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise significantly starting in September, with projections indicating an increase from the current price of 260,000 CNY/ton to over 350,000 CNY/ton, representing a rise of more than one-third [1][8] - The strategic nature of cobalt is increasing, similar to the transition seen in the rare earth and tungsten markets, suggesting a favorable outlook for the cobalt sector [1][6] - The recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve have boosted the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting investment opportunities in cobalt and tungsten [1][7] Company-Specific Insights - Huayou Cobalt is highlighted as a key investment target, with expected profits of around 6 billion CNY in 2025 and a market capitalization increase from 70 billion CNY to 80 billion CNY, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 13 times [1][9] - Other companies such as Tengyuan and Hanrui are also noted for their potential, although their benefits may diminish in the third quarter due to the DRC's export ban [1][10] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The overall valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector remains low, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum maintaining low price-to-earnings ratios, making cobalt and other small commodities particularly attractive for investment [1][11] - The copper market is expected to recover in demand during the third quarter, with no significant increase in global copper supply, indicating a favorable window for copper price increases [1][14][15] Additional Important Insights - The cobalt market is sensitive to strategic metal attributes, and the U.S. procurement plan for cobalt, which includes 7,500 tons over five years, will have a significant impact on the metal cobalt market despite its small overall industry share [2][10] - The supply situation is expected to tighten in September due to the DRC's export ban, leading to a relative vacuum in supply and subsequent price increases [1][5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.093 billion RMB for H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 12.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.062 billion RMB, up 32.76% year-over-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 12.34%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points year-over-year, with Q2 gross margin at 13.06%, showing a slight quarter-over-quarter growth of 1.2% [2] - The company is actively expanding its mining resources and has announced a stock buyback plan to enhance investor confidence [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.365 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 9.53% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 16.82% [1] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 562 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 18.76% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 12.61% [1] - The company’s total production of non-ferrous metals in H1 2025 reached 181,300 tons, including 48,100 tons of tin, 69,800 tons of zinc, 62,500 tons of copper, and 937 tons of lead [2] Market Conditions - Domestic refined tin social inventory decreased from 6,320 tons in January to 4,950 tons by the end of July 2025, while global exchange inventory fell from over 13,000 tons in April to below 10,000 tons in August [3] - The tight supply of tin resources is expected to support tin prices, with a positive outlook for price trends in 2026-2027 due to ongoing resource scarcity [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company has a tin smelting capacity of 80,000 tons per year and is planning to develop additional copper-tungsten mining capacity of 1.5 million tons per year [4] - The stock buyback plan announced on June 12, 2025, is expected to involve 100 million to 200 million RMB, aimed at boosting investor confidence [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted upwards to 2.262 billion RMB, 2.599 billion RMB, and 2.838 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.37 RMB, 1.58 RMB, and 1.72 RMB [5] - The target price for the company is set at 21.72 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 15.86 times for 2025 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector continues to experience oscillations. With the easing of geopolitical tensions, there is a rise in optimistic sentiment, and domestic industrial products, especially those priced in the domestic market, are showing a warming trend, benefiting related non - ferrous metal varieties. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is increasing, and the US dollar index is falling. Each metal variety has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. For example, the copper market is gradually entering a pattern of strong supply and demand, while the zinc market shows a situation of increasing supply and weak demand. [3][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector oscillates. The implementation of the anti - involution policy in multiple domestic industries has affected the non - ferrous metals sector. The suspension of a 24% tariff between China and the US for 90 days, along with signs of easing geopolitical situations, has led to a partial recovery of non - ferrous metals. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased, and the US dollar is relatively weak. [11] - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal**: - **Copper**: Supply is abundant in the short term, but demand is gradually picking up. It is advisable to gradually buy at low prices. The short - term upper pressure range is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the lower support range is 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton. [3] - **Zinc**: In the short term, it may fluctuate and rise, but in the medium term, it is advisable to short at high prices. The upper pressure is around 22,800 - 23,000 yuan, and the lower support is around 21,800 - 22,000 yuan. [4] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: It is recommended to wait and see. For the 09 contract, the upper pressure range is 21,000 - 21,200 yuan, and the lower support range is 20,000 - 20,200 yuan. [5] - **Tin**: It is advisable to conduct short - term high - selling and low - buying operations. The upper pressure range is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan, and the lower support range is 250,000 - 255,000 yuan. [6] - **Lead**: It is advisable to hold long positions at low prices in the short term. The lower support is around 16,500 - 16,600 yuan, and the upper pressure is around 17,200 - 17,400 yuan. [7] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel can be shorted on rebounds in the medium term, while stainless steel shows a short - term upward trend. For nickel, the upper pressure is 123,000 - 125,000 yuan, and the lower support is 115,000 - 116,000 yuan. For stainless steel, the support is around 12,800 - 13,000 yuan, and the upper pressure is around 13,500 - 13,600 yuan. [8] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 79,020 yuan with a 0.00% change, zinc at 22,630 yuan with a 0.18% change, etc. [15] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, and changes in net long and short positions of various non - ferrous metal contracts are provided, along with the influencing factors such as changes in the positions of major players. [17] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, aluminum, and alumina are given. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 79,200 yuan/ton with a - 0.01% change. [18][20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each metal, relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fee changes, and price trends, which help to understand the supply - demand relationships and cost factors in the industry chain. [22][26][29] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various arbitrage - related charts for non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the ratio changes between domestic and foreign markets, basis trends, and price differences between different contracts, which can be used for arbitrage operations. [60][61][63] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for non - ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, and aluminum are provided, which can assist in option trading strategies. [77][79][82]

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to stimulate overall demand recovery and drive up metal prices [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The hydropower project is anticipated to enhance demand for tungsten, particularly in the production of cutting tools and wear-resistant tools, with medium to long-term tungsten terminal demand expected to show steady growth [1] - The Nonferrous Metals 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (930708), which selects representative companies from the nonferrous metals industry in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering precious metals and industrial metals [1] - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Index reflects the overall performance of the nonferrous metals industry in the Chinese A-share market, exhibiting strong cyclicality and commodity attributes [1] Group 2: Investment Options - Investors without stock accounts may consider the Guotai CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link C (013219) and Guotai CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF Initiated Link A (013218) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent implementation of a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products by the U.S. has had a weaker-than-expected impact on China's copper prices, leading to significant gains in leading copper companies in China [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Leading copper companies such as Tongling Nonferrous Metals surged over 9%, Yunnan Copper rose more than 3%, and other companies like Jiangxi Copper and Northern Copper increased by over 2% [1]. - The ETF tracking leading non-ferrous metal companies, known as the Non-ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876), saw its price peak at 0.77% during trading, reflecting a positive market sentiment towards the sector [1]. Group 2: Tariff Impact Analysis - The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on various semi-finished copper products starting August 1, but raw materials like cathode copper and scrap copper are exempt from these tariffs [3]. - Analysts believe the tariff's impact on domestic copper prices is limited, as only 30,000 tons of the 578,000 tons of copper imported by the U.S. in 2024 will come from China, accounting for just 5.2% [3]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Guotai Junan Securities is optimistic about investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly for gold, which is expected to benefit from a weakening U.S. dollar and anticipated interest rate cuts [3]. - The copper market is expected to see a price increase due to constrained supply and resilient demand, with projections for gradual export openings and continuous demand growth [3]. Group 4: Sector Performance - As of July 31, the non-ferrous metal sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.91%, making it the top-performing sector among 31 major industries [4]. - The current price-to-book ratio of the non-ferrous metal index is at a historically low level of 2.36, indicating potential for valuation recovery [4]. Group 5: ETF Composition - The Non-ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) and its associated funds are diversified across various metals, with copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium making up significant portions of the index [6].