Group 1 - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) has shown a bullish signal after three months, entering a relatively certain bullish cycle, with continuous fund inflows [1] - The ETF's underlying index includes six components: copper (approximately 50%), aluminum (approximately 16%), nickel (approximately 11%), tin (approximately 8%), lead (approximately 8%), and zinc (approximately 8%), all maintaining bullish signals at the daily level [1] - As of July 1, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF has seen a net inflow of 81.7191 million yuan over the past five days, reaching a new high in scale at 966 million yuan and a new high in shares at 565 million [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities analysis indicates that the refined copper market remains in a tight balance due to limited production guidance and declining TC/RC fees, with support for copper prices from China's economic stability and a soft landing in the U.S. economy [2] - Current market prices for copper are considered reasonable, with potential for further upward movement contingent on domestic macro policies and overseas economic recovery [2] - Expectations of rising inflation, interest rate cuts, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar index may support copper prices in maintaining a strong oscillating trend [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant rise in copper and aluminum stocks, with companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Northern Copper reaching their daily limit, and Zijin Mining increasing by over 3% [1][3] - The Copper sector is expected to see prices peak at approximately $10,050 per ton by August 2025, driven by tightening supply outside the U.S. and a significant drop in available inventory at the London Metal Exchange, which has decreased by about 80% this year [3] - The Aluminum sector is crucial for manufacturing and high-tech development, with China's aluminum production projected to reach 67.83 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.61% [3] - The Rare Earth sector is viewed positively due to export controls and supply chain adjustments, with increasing demand anticipated from downstream applications like humanoid robots and low-altitude economies [3] Group 2 - The "Metal Heart" of modern industry is represented by the diversified exposure of the leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876), which tracks the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with weights of 25.5% for copper, 17.5% for gold, 16.2% for aluminum, 9.3% for rare earths, and 8.1% for lithium [4] - This diversified approach helps mitigate risks compared to investing in single metal sectors, making it suitable for inclusion in investment portfolios [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the sustained upward trend in gold prices driven by ongoing U.S. fiscal pressures and geopolitical issues, while silver is expected to enter a phase of catch-up growth [1][2] - The report predicts that the precious metals market will continue to benefit from a weakening U.S. dollar credit system, with gold's price center expected to rise due to multiple converging factors [2][3] - Silver's supply-demand dynamics are projected to maintain a deficit throughout the year, creating a favorable environment for price increases, especially as the gold-silver ratio is expected to converge downward during the easing cycle [1][2] Group 2 - The industrial metals sector is anticipated to experience price increases due to a combination of limited supply and low inventory levels, particularly for copper and aluminum, which are expected to see demand elasticity release [2][3] - The report highlights that the global economy is likely to remain in a loose monetary environment, which will support industrial metal prices and enhance demand driven by domestic policy [2][3] - The energy metals sector is currently in a clearing phase, with demand from sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics expected to remain resilient, although the overall supply-demand balance is still skewed towards excess [3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies with significant cost advantages and expected volume growth in the coming years, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tianshan Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, Huayou Cobalt, and Zhongjin Resources [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][108]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to unresolved negotiations for long-term contracts, with recent price changes of +0.83% for London copper, -0.03% for Shanghai copper, and +1.74% for New York copper. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring financial aspects such as U.S. import investigations and economic data [5][25]. - Aluminum prices are also fluctuating, with a decrease in alumina prices by 3.35% to 3170 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum prices are stable at 20525 CNY/ton, supported by ongoing inventory depletion [5][36]. - Lithium prices are stabilizing at the bottom, with carbonate lithium prices down 0.41% to 60400 CNY/ton, and the report suggests waiting for supply-side reductions and seasonal demand support [5][77]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rebound due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to raw material shortages in Q4 [5][90]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index down 3.57%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.07 percentage points [11]. - The report notes that the U.S. retail sales for May fell by 0.9%, which was below expectations, while initial jobless claims were in line with forecasts [9]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices increased by 0.83%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.03%. The report indicates a significant drop in London copper inventory by 13.34% [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - The report states that aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility, with a recent increase in aluminum profits by 3.60% to 4383 CNY/ton [36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices saw a slight increase of 0.23% in London, while zinc prices rose by 1.91% in London [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have shown minor fluctuations, with London tin prices up by 0.08% and Shanghai tin prices down by 1.26% [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are under pressure, with carbonate lithium down 0.41% to 60400 CNY/ton, and the report suggests that the market is waiting for supply-side adjustments [77]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are stable domestically, with a slight decrease in MB cobalt prices by 0.32% to 15.63 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices remain unchanged at 23.50 CNY/ton [90].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：地缘冲突升级， 坚守贵金属投资 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 16 日 贵金属：金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [7] Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 1.18% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 12th among 31 first-level industries [2][14] - Precious metals have shown strong performance due to heightened market risk aversion influenced by global geopolitical conflicts and inflation data from the U.S. [5] - The report highlights a divergence in the prices of strategic minor metals, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in this area [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 1.18% from May 26 to June 6, 2025, with small metals and new metal materials leading the gains at 4.56% and 3.93% respectively [2][14] - Precious metals, energy metals, and industrial metals saw changes of 1.41%, 0.38%, and 0.06% respectively during the same period [14] Precious Metals - As of June 6, COMEX gold closed at $3,331 per ounce, down 0.80% over the past two weeks but up 24.70% year-to-date [22] - COMEX silver closed at $36.13 per ounce, up 7.40% over the past two weeks and 20.49% year-to-date, driven by unique attributes and market sentiment [27][24] Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,795 per ton, up 2.08% over the past two weeks and 12.77% year-to-date [31] - LME aluminum closed at $2,432 per ton, down 0.23% over the past two weeks and down 4.12% year-to-date [31] Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price reached 172,500 CNY per ton, up 4.86% over the past two weeks and 20.84% year-to-date [36] - Antimony ingot (99.65%) price was 215,000 CNY per ton, down 3.37% over the past two weeks but up 53.30% year-to-date [36] Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was 183.45 as of June 6, up 3.09% over the past two weeks and 12.01% year-to-date [47] - Neodymium praseodymium oxide closed at 449,000 CNY per ton, up 4.66% over the past two weeks and 12.81% year-to-date [47] Energy Metals - As of June 6, electrolytic cobalt averaged 233,550 CNY per ton, down 0.98% over the past two weeks but up 36.98% year-to-date [52] - Sulfuric acid cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 48,375 CNY per ton, down 1.28% over the past two weeks and up 81.18% year-to-date [52] Major Events - Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, diversified its portfolio into rare metals by acquiring Vostok Engineering, which holds a development license for a rare earth deposit estimated at 154 million tons [4][59]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：国际局势莫测下 应坚守贵金属避风港 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 09 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 贵金属 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.88% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking seventh among 31 first-level industries [2][13] - Precious metals showed strong performance due to heightened market risk aversion influenced by global geopolitical conflicts and inflation data [5] - The report highlights the importance of strategic minor metals investment opportunities amid intensified international market purchasing [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 1.88% from May 12 to May 23, 2025, with industrial metals and precious metals leading the gains at 2.87% and 2.45% respectively [2][13] Precious Metals - As of May 23, COMEX gold closed at $3,357.70 per ounce, reflecting a 4.75% increase over the past week and a 25.70% rise year-to-date [21][23] - COMEX silver closed at $33.64 per ounce, up 3.73% over the past week and 12.19% year-to-date [21][26] Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,595 per ton, up 1.15% over the past two weeks and 10.47% year-to-date [30] - LME aluminum closed at $2,437 per ton, increasing by 1.50% over the past two weeks but down 3.90% year-to-date [30][32] Minor Metals - The price of antimony ingots (99.65%) was reported at 225,000 yuan per ton, down 5.32% over the past two weeks but up 58.65% year-to-date [36][37] - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was priced at 164,500 yuan per ton, down 1.79% over the past two weeks and up 15.24% year-to-date [36] Rare Earths - The rare earth price index stood at 177.95, up 0.55% over the past two weeks and 8.65% year-to-date [47] - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide was priced at 429,000 yuan per ton, up 1.42% over the past two weeks [47] Energy Metals - Electrolytic cobalt averaged 235,850 yuan per ton, down 2.54% over the past two weeks but up 38.33% year-to-date [51] - Sulfuric cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 49,000 yuan per ton, down 0.71% over the past two weeks and up 83.52% year-to-date [51] Major Events - China issued export licenses for rare earths to at least four producers, marking the first such issuance since export controls were implemented in April [4][58]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Guozheng Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) increased by 0.32% as of May 20, 2025, with notable gains from component stocks such as China Rare Earth (000831) up 2.58%, Guocheng Mining (000688) up 1.78%, and Shandong Gold (600547) up 1.27% [1] - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) rose by 0.47%, with the latest price at 1.07 yuan [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - The Guinean government is restructuring mining rights, significantly impacting bauxite supply, as Guinea accounts for 33% of global bauxite production in 2024, with the affected mines representing 12% of Guinea's total output [2] - The revocation of mining rights is seen as a warning regarding overdue mining fees and slow progress in alumina construction, rather than targeting major Chinese mining companies [2] Group 3: Investment Insights - A prominent figure in the copper market, the chairman of Zhongcai Futures, has accumulated nearly 90,000 tons of futures positions over 10 months, indicating strong confidence in copper and the Chinese economy despite geopolitical tensions [3] - Goldman Sachs previously projected that copper prices could reach $10,000 per ton by the end of 2025, supporting long-term investment strategies in the sector [3] Group 4: Index Composition - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) include Zijin Mining (601899), Northern Rare Earth (600111), and China Aluminum (601600), collectively accounting for 52.1% of the index [3]

有色金属 证券研究报告 供给端存收紧预期，氧化铝价格底部反弹 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 11 日 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2025/5/5-2025/5/9） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜：铜价窄幅震荡，等待后续宏观催化。本周伦铜/沪铜/美铜涨跌幅分别为 +0.80%/+0.30%/-0.93%，沪铜在 7.7-7.8 万之间窄幅震荡，正如我们前期所判断的 美国关税造成的流动性冲击缓解后铜价迎来反弹修复，铜价波动率逐步下降 ...