衰退交易

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【招银研究】关税超预期落地,避险情绪大幅上升——宏观与策略周度前瞻(2025.04.07-04.11)
招商银行研究· 2025-04-07 10:55
Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration has exceeded market expectations, leading to significant impacts on the U.S. economy and financial markets, with a potential annual tariff scale reaching $480 billion, covering 60% of U.S. imports [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The new tariffs could push U.S. import tax rates above 20%, marking a century-high level [2]. - Despite a downturn in various economic indicators, U.S. employment remains resilient, with March non-farm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations [2]. - The housing market in the U.S. continues to face challenges, particularly due to a shortage of labor, which is affecting supply [2]. Group 2: Financial Market Reactions - Financial markets have shifted their pricing logic from "inflation risk" to "economic recession," with significant declines in major indices and a drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield [3]. - Recommendations include increasing allocations to U.S. Treasuries and extending duration due to rising recession risks [3]. Group 3: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The U.S. dollar is expected to face downward pressure, potentially challenging the 100 mark, influenced by trade negotiations and liquidity concerns [3]. - Gold prices have seen a pullback post-tariff announcement, but the outlook remains positive as recession risks rise, suggesting a potential increase in allocation after market corrections [4][5]. Group 4: China's Economic Response - China's economy is facing increased external pressures due to the tariffs, with a cumulative 54% increase in tariffs imposed by the U.S. this year [7][9]. - Domestic consumption is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the automotive sector, while the housing market is experiencing localized improvements [8]. - China has announced retaliatory measures, including additional tariffs on U.S. imports and support for domestic demand through macroeconomic policies [9][10]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Domestic risk aversion is rising, leading to a decline in risk appetite and a downward trend in A-shares [13]. - The bond market is expected to see lower yields as risk aversion increases, with a potential return of the 10-year government bond yield below 1.7% [13]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for A-shares, focusing on technology, consumer, and dividend-paying stocks, while being cautious of overvalued sectors [14].
中信证券:关税余波尚存,聚焦核心资产
券商中国· 2025-04-06 09:09
Core Views - The uncertainty surrounding tariff developments persists, but the market is accelerating its shift towards recession trading as expectations of a downturn rise. The synchronization of the economic cycles between China and the U.S. may occur sooner than anticipated [1][5] Tariff Policy and Market Impact - The current tariff policy is seen as a negotiation tactic by the U.S., applying extreme pressure on other countries to achieve a 10% tariff increase while potentially allowing for exemptions in certain industries. This strategy may lead to a reduction in actual tariffs imposed by many countries [3] - China's retaliatory tariff measures are expected to drive domestic substitution in high-end manufacturing and consumer sectors, particularly for products heavily reliant on U.S. imports [3][4] Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - Investors are likely to lower their risk appetite in the short term, maintaining a framework focused on recession expectations. The uncertainty from the broad and high tariffs is expected to increase market volatility [4][6] - The transition from recession expectations to actual recession trading is becoming more probable, with key indicators such as U.S. corporate earnings per share (EPS) showing signs of decline [6][8] Economic Synchronization and Policy Response - The synchronization of economic cycles between China and the U.S. may lead to an earlier implementation of stimulus policies in China, with significant impacts on GDP growth and exports due to increased tariffs [7][8] - The anticipated window for investment opportunities may also arrive sooner, coinciding with external shocks and policy responses [8] Core Asset Investment Outlook - Core assets are expected to gain an advantage as the economic policy cycles align, with a focus on companies exhibiting strong operational resilience and growth potential. The GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) strategy is projected to outperform [9][10] - Short-term investment recommendations include sectors with pricing power and resilience to geopolitical disruptions, such as AI, precision optics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [11][12] Long-term Investment Trends - Long-term focus should be on global manufacturing demand recovery and the trend of Chinese technology going abroad, as geopolitical uncertainties drive countries to invest in energy, defense, and technology sectors [13]
海外研究|黄金价格创新高,但行情可能仍未结束
中信证券研究· 2025-03-31 00:06
文 | 贾天楚 崔嵘 李翀 韦昕澄 近期黄金价格再创新高,主要是海外市场衰退交易与关税恐慌交易所致。综合通胀、增长、关税、地缘等多个因素来看,当前黄金行情难言结 束。二季度至年中,海外市场或持续出现类滞胀交易的主线,并利好黄金表现,而关税和地缘冲突对黄金的扰动仍未到终点,在不确定性情绪积 聚以及释放以前,上述因素对黄金的驱动难言结束。从资金面看,黄金多头对黄金当前走向的影响程度已经来到历史最高水平,不过交投规模以 及热度并未达到历史"最拥挤"区间,资金仍有进一步加仓的空间。综合当前基本面和资金面数据,我们预计年内黄金行情可能仍未结束。 ▍ 2 0 2 5年3月2 8日,国际金价再创新高,盘中最高价录得3 0 8 6 . 0 4美元/盎司,已经达到并超越了我们此前对于黄金价格的预测区间。 对此我 们点评如下: ▍ 从基本面看,近期黄金行情主要为衰退交易与关税恐慌交易所致。 综合通胀、增长、关税、地缘等多个因素来看,当前黄金价格连续冲 高,但行情难言结束: 从通胀与增长表现来看,"类滞胀"交易或在二季度至年中持续发酵并利好黄金。同时,未来如果美国成功降低通胀,将是美元与黄金共振趋势 结束的重要关键变量。 美国通胀 ...
晨报|中国经济蓄势待发
中信证券研究· 2025-03-18 00:03
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for China in 2025, highlighting the transition from real estate to strategic emerging industries, with GDP growth expected to stabilize around 5% for the year [1]. Economic Data - In the first two months of 2025, industrial production and service sectors showed rapid growth, although domestic demand remained weak [3]. - Industrial added value growth exceeded market expectations, driven by transportation equipment, metal products, and equipment manufacturing [3]. - Investment growth was significantly above market expectations, particularly in infrastructure, while real estate investment saw a reduced decline [3]. - Consumer spending data slightly fell short of expectations, with overall consumption growth remaining flat compared to December 2024 [3]. Policy Environment - The monetary policy is expected to focus on the broad price system, while fiscal policy will maintain reasonable space to address external challenges and weak domestic demand [1]. - The article anticipates that monetary policy will support consumer demand recovery through both total and structural tools, while fiscal policy will aim for moderate expansion to enhance social security and effective investment [1]. Industry Insights - The article emphasizes the ongoing transformation in China's economic structure, with the share of real estate and its related industries declining from 18% in 2020 to an expected 10%-11% by 2024, while strategic emerging industries are projected to rise from 11.7% to 14.1% in the same period [1]. - The article suggests that the recovery in the outdoor manufacturing sector is likely, with a gradual improvement in order fulfillment and capacity utilization expected throughout 2025 [23]. Geopolitical Factors - The article notes that the geopolitical environment is becoming increasingly complex, with potential impacts on market confidence and economic policies, particularly regarding U.S.-China relations [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The article recommends focusing on sectors such as education and technology, particularly those leveraging AI and consumer recovery trends, as they are expected to present significant investment opportunities [17][18].
地缘政治|“衰退交易”下特朗普理想施政路径的抉择
中信证券研究· 2025-03-18 00:03
Core Viewpoint - The external geopolitical environment in late March is characterized by increasing disturbances, but it does not alter the recovery of market confidence [1][4] Group 1: Market Concerns and Economic Data - Recent market concerns revolve around the accelerating pace of Trump's policies, including tariffs and layoffs, exacerbated by the absence of the "Trump put" [2][3] - Despite the overall stability of current U.S. economic data, increasing uncertainty may lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy of negative expectations [2][3] Group 2: Ideal Policy Pathway - Based on historical patterns during a new president's honeymoon period and midterm election preparations, the ideal policy pathway for Trump involves quickly implementing negative policies while maintaining a high tolerance for pain, followed by a gradual reduction of shocks and the introduction of positive policies like tax cuts [2][3][4] - The ideal pathway's realization depends on several assumptions, and the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies may not dissipate quickly [3][4] Group 3: Trade and Non-Trade Policies - In trade, Trump's administration has initiated the "America First Trade Policy" memorandum, which aims to assess trade relations comprehensively, with conclusions expected by April 1 [5] - In non-trade areas, discussions within Trump's team regarding chip controls against China indicate a strong intent to enhance restrictions, which may impact certain re-exported goods from China [5] Group 4: Additional Hot Topics - The fluctuating nature of Trump's tariff threats has created ongoing market disturbances, with key upcoming dates being April 1 for the trade policy results and April 2 for details on "reciprocal tariffs" [6] - Progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and Europe's fiscal expansion are also noteworthy, as they may influence the political and economic landscape in the Eurozone [6] - The U.S. Congress has temporarily resolved a government shutdown crisis by passing a short-term spending bill, reflecting ongoing budgetary negotiations and potential resistance to Trump's fiscal policies [7]
就业数据崩了!虚惊一场还是大难临头? - 华尔街见闻-
数据创新中心· 2024-08-04 04:21
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 114,000, marking the lowest growth since December 2020, significantly below the expected 175,000 and down from the previous value of 206,000 [2][6] - The unemployment rate surged to 4.3%, exceeding expectations and the previous rate of 4.1%, triggering the Sam Rule which indicates a high probability of recession [2][3][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The increase in unemployment was primarily driven by a rise in temporary layoffs, with temporary job losses increasing by 249,000 to 1.1 million, while the number of permanent job losers remained relatively stable at 1.7 million [7][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market reacted negatively to the employment data, with expectations shifting towards a hard landing for the economy, contrasting previous assumptions of a soft landing [2][10] - The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, experienced a decline greater than the broader market, indicating a sell-off in small-cap stocks due to their weaker risk and cyclical resilience [16][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The market is increasingly favoring "defensive" stocks, such as consumer staples and utilities, which are considered essential regardless of economic conditions, as investors seek safety amid economic uncertainty [15][16] - The potential for a recession has led to a shift in market sentiment, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates more aggressively than previously anticipated [19][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management indicated that the July employment data might reflect a one-time factor due to the impact of Hurricane Barry, which caused temporary layoffs in affected regions [9][10] - There is speculation that the unemployment rate could revert to 4.1% in August, as the July data may not be indicative of a long-term trend [10][12] Other Important Information - The Sam Rule, which suggests that a 0.5 percentage point increase in the three-month average unemployment rate compared to the previous year's low indicates a recession, has been triggered by the recent data [5][6] - The market is pricing in the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the near future, reflecting heightened economic concerns [19][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the July employment data a sign of a recession? - The July employment data, while concerning, may not definitively indicate a recession, but it does increase the probability of one occurring [12] Question: What factors contributed to the rise in unemployment? - The rise in unemployment was largely due to temporary layoffs, influenced by external factors such as Hurricane Barry, which affected many businesses [9][10] Question: How is the market responding to the economic outlook? - The market is shifting towards defensive stocks and pricing in potential interest rate cuts as investors react to the increased likelihood of a recession [15][19]