1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw materials are strong while the steel products are weak, leading to the compression of steel - making profits [3] - The "Three Red Lines" constraint has been alleviated, and the real - estate market expectation has improved. The macro - environment is generally warm [5] - The black industry chain: Steel mills are replenishing stocks for winter storage, and there are still low - level buying orders for steel - making raw materials. The supply - demand pattern of steel is loose, but the cost provides support, and the price fluctuates widely. Currently, steel production and inventory are being reduced, creating conditions for subsequent positive feedback [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Data - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: The report provides supply, demand, inventory data, as well as spot and futures prices and spreads for various steel products such as iron water, scrap steel, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate on January 30, 2026, including week - on - week and year - on - year differences [4] 3.2 Rebar Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3250 (-20) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price was 3128 (-14) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was 122 (-6) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -49 (-3) yuan/ton. It shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage [13][17] - **Demand**: New - home sales remain at a low level, indicating low market confidence. Second - hand home sales remain at a high level, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains at a low level. It is the traditional off - season, and demand has declined [18][21] - **MS Weekly Data**: Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is healthy. It also shows the supply and inventory data of long - and short - process rebar [23][25] - **Production Profit**: Last week, the rebar spot profit was 129 (-32) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 130 (-12) yuan/ton. Due to the expected resumption of production by steel mills and inventory replenishment, the disk profit has shrunk [28] 3.3 Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - **Basis and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3270 (-20) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract futures price was 3288 (-17) yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was -18 (-3) yuan/ton, and the 05 - 10 spread was -23 (-4) yuan/ton. It shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with basis and spread reverse arbitrage [32][36] - **Demand**: Demand is flat. It is the traditional off - season, and demand has declined. The profit window for exports has not opened, and export orders have decreased [37][38] - **MS Weekly Data**: Hot - rolled coil inventory is high, and production and inventory are being reduced. Production is maintained at a low level [43][44] - **Production Profit**: Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was -13 (-31) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 140 (-15) yuan/ton. Due to the expected resumption of production by steel mills and inventory replenishment, the disk profit has shrunk [46][49] 3.4 Variety Regional Differences - The report shows the regional price differences of rebar, cold - rolled coil, hot - rolled coil, and medium - thick plate, including the price differences between different regions such as Shanghai - Tianjin, Tianjin - Guangzhou, and Shanghai - Guangzhou [55] 3.5 Cold - Rolled and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - It provides the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate from 2022 to 2026 [63][64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a slight decline in daily molten iron production, with the average dropping to 227.9 thousand tons, while steel production has seen a minor increase [13]. - Total steel inventory has expanded, with a week-on-week increase of 1.7%, indicating a growing supply in the market [23]. - Apparent consumption of steel has weakened slightly, with rebar demand decreasing by 13.4% week-on-week [39]. - Iron ore prices are trending downwards, influenced by increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, alongside rising port inventories [48]. - The current steel price index has decreased by 0.2% week-on-week, reflecting a general weakening in the market [72]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 0.2 thousand tons to 227.9 thousand tons, with a slight recovery in steel production [13]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is at 85.5%, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week but up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [17]. 2. Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products has increased by 1.7% week-on-week, with social inventory rising to 890.7 thousand tons [25]. - Rebar social inventory has increased by 7.7% week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil inventory has decreased by 1.0% [25]. 3. Demand - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has decreased by 1.0% week-on-week, with rebar consumption down by 4.9% [49]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel has dropped to 67 thousand tons, a decline of 13.4% [41]. 4. Raw Materials - Iron ore prices have weakened, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $103.2 per ton, down 1.4% week-on-week [58]. - The total port inventory of iron ore has increased by 1.5% week-on-week, indicating a supply surplus [58]. 5. Prices and Profits - The comprehensive steel price index has decreased to 121.6, reflecting a 0.2% decline week-on-week [72]. - The current profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils are negative, indicating cost pressures in the industry [74].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return below the growth threshold[3][7]. - The new export orders index and new orders index for January are 47.8% and 49.2%, respectively, down 1.2 and 1.6 percentage points from last month, both remaining below the growth threshold[5][13]. - The production expansion speed has slowed, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, still above the growth threshold[16]. Group 2: Inventory and Pricing Dynamics - The finished goods inventory index for January is 48.6%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, slightly above seasonal levels; the raw materials inventory index is 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, below seasonal levels[17][21]. - The price scissors difference between raw material purchase prices and factory prices is 5.5%, up 1.3 percentage points from last month, indicating further compression of profit margins for enterprises[20][23]. - The main raw material purchase price index is 56.1%, up 3.0 percentage points from last month, reflecting significant price increases in the commodity market[20]. Group 3: Demand Weakness and Risks - External demand is weakening due to changes in trade policies and a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index, which fell from 94.2% to 84.5%, the lowest since May 2014[15]. - Internal demand is also showing signs of weakness, with the difference between new orders and new export orders dropping from 1.8% in December 2025 to 1.4% in January 2026[15]. - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy measures, unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations, and measurement errors in PMI indicators related to anti-involution industries[40].

Manufacturing Sector - January Manufacturing PMI index decreased to 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from December, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[1] - New orders index fell to 49.2%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, while new export orders index dropped to 47.8%, down 1.2 percentage points[1] - Production index stood at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points; raw material inventory index at 47.4%, down 0.4 percentage points; finished goods inventory index increased to 48.6%, up 0.4 percentage points[1] - Employment index decreased to 48.1%, down 0.1 percentage points; supplier delivery time index slightly declined to 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points[1] Price and Demand Indicators - Major raw material purchase price index remained high at 56.1%, up 3.0 percentage points; manufacturing output price index increased by 1.7 percentage points[2] - The demand for black metal smelting and specialized equipment manufacturing showed improvement in new orders, indicating potential growth in fixed asset investment[2] - January non-manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in the service sector[3] Construction Sector - January construction PMI index dropped to 48.8%, a significant decline of 4.0 percentage points; new orders index fell to 40.1%, down 7.3 percentage points[3] - Employment index in construction slightly improved to 41.1%, up 0.1 percentage points; business activity expectation index decreased to 49.8%, down 7.6 percentage points[3]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 01 日 1 月 PMI：生产蓄力开门红 —2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 1 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，重返 收缩区间。从结构上看，制造业企业生产指数有所放缓但仍处于扩张区间， 而市场有效需求仍显不足，生产存在蓄力开门红特征。从行业角度来看，消 费品制造业生产指数放缓拖累较多，但装备制造业、高技术制造业为代表的 新动能仍处于扩张区间。 1 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.8%，非制造业商务活动指数亦有所回落。 综合来看，随着春节临近，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，建筑业景气下降， 1 月经济活动相较上月总体放缓。 ❑ 1 月生产放缓但仍处于扩张区间，蓄力开门红 1 月生产指数 50.6%，比上月回落 1.1 个百分点，仍处于扩张区间，表明制造业生 产活动保持扩张，此外，生产相关的原材料库存量回落、用工景气平稳。1 月生产 指数下降的首要原因是消费品制造业生产指数较上月下降超过 4 个百分点至 50% 以下，拖累整体生产指数运行，显示消费品制造业 ...

Group 1 - The underlying logic of the non-ferrous metals, liquor, and large refining sectors is interconnected, driven by the anticipated liquidity from the Federal Reserve's QE in 2026, which is expected to enhance the super cycle of commodities [1][10] - The current investment in the large refining sector is likened to the investment in non-ferrous metals last year, with expectations of a significant price increase in oil and chemical products by 2026, following the patterns observed in the non-ferrous sector [2][14] - The "anti-involution" trend in China is contributing to the upward momentum in the large refining sector, as capital expenditure is being restrained, leading to a significant slowdown in new capacity additions and a clearing of inventories, which supports future price elasticity [3][16] Group 2 - The large refining sector is still at a low valuation level, with significant room for valuation recovery compared to the non-ferrous sector, which has already experienced a systematic valuation increase [4][21] - Recent inflows from public funds, foreign investments, and ETFs into the large refining sector indicate a timely opportunity for investment, as the sector is positioned for a major upward trend [6][27] - The upcoming Federal Reserve QE in 2026 is expected to create a favorable environment for the large refining sector, alongside the anticipated recovery in consumer demand and high-end manufacturing sectors [7][37]

1、黄金主题基金总规模已近3800亿元。今年以来，国际金价持续走强，黄金主题基金的吸引力不断提升。 Wind数据显示，截至1月28日，53只黄金主题基金总规模已近3800亿元，较去年年底增长近1000亿元，涨幅 达35.7%。其中，排名首位的产品规模已突破1200亿元，成为全市场首只跻身千亿元级的黄金主题基金。同 时，从业绩表现来看，有18只产品年内净值增长超过30%。 2、工信部召开光伏行业座谈会强调"反内卷"，推动行业良性竞争。工信部召开光伏行业企业家座谈会指 出，"反内卷"是当前光伏行业规范治理的主要矛盾，将综合运用产能调控、价格执法、防范垄断风险等市 场化、法治化手段，推动行业回归良性竞争与理性发展轨道。 3、中小银行自营理财面临规模压降或进入彻底清退的倒计时。银行理财市场2025年大幅增逾3.3万亿元之 际，中小银行自营理财面临规模压降或进入彻底清退的倒计时。银行业理财登记托管中心近日披露的数据 显示，去年银行机构自营理财压降逾1万亿元。截至去年末，银行机构理财产品（即自营理财）存续规模为 2.58万亿元，同比下降29.12%，降幅约1.06万亿元。 4、字节跳动与阿里将发布新AI模型，国内AI模型 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 关注"价"的积极信号 ——1 月制造业 PMI 点评 1、制造业 PMI：短期因素叠加，景气重返收缩区间 （1）新订单：1 月新订单降至 49.2%，再度回到收缩区间，反映上月需求透 支效应。在 12 月冲刺之后，1 月需求释放透支。下游春节提前放假、降温天 气也导致需求放缓。另外，新出口订单环比降幅低于新订单总体，显示内需订 单放缓的力度相对更大。 （2）生产：生产节奏放缓，但仍在扩张区间。受需求端承压影响，生产相应 波动，增势有所放缓。其中，消费品制造业生产指数下滑 4pct 至荣枯线以下 是主要拖累，而代表新动能的行业生产仍在高景气，分化有所加大。 （3）外贸：进口偏强、出口订单转弱。新出口订单环比-1.2pct 至 47.8%，收 缩再度加剧。1 月美国针对部分高技术制造品类加征关税，美欧贸易关税摩擦 也有波动，叠加临近春节，新出口订单增势环比放缓。进口环比+0.3pct 至 47.3%，生产景气对进口需求或有一定支撑。 （4）价格：原材料购进价格、出厂价格环比+3.0pct、+1.7pct 至 56.1%、50.6%， 其中后者自 2024 年 5 月以来首次回 ...

第 1页 共 4页 2026 年中国经济形势展望——新质驱动， 能级跃迁-ciic 中智咨询 一、研究背景评估 二、范围与边界确认 三、核心摘要提炼 四、关键数据抓取与呈现 五、风险与机遇诊断 第 2页 共 4页 一、研究背景评估 三、核心摘要提炼 | 序 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 号 | | 第 3页 共 4页 | 序 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 号 | | | 1 | 经济增长换挡提质：2026 年 GDP 预计保持 5%左右增速，从高速增长转向高质量发展，依赖 | | | 新质生产力驱动。 | | 2 | 投资结构剧变：投资从房地产驱动转向"两重"建设（国家重大战略项目与重点安全能力建设） | | | 与高技术制造，设备更新、绿色能源、新基建成为关键。 | | 3 | 消费呈现"沙漏型"分层：消费升级与降级并存，高端体验与高性价比两端走强，中端市场承 | | | 压，服务消费、县域消费、银发经济等成为新增长点。 | | 4 | 外贸韧性增强：出口从"新三样"向"新新三样"升级，市场从欧美向"一带一路"多元化拓 | | | 展，进口服务于产业升级与消费升级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is undergoing significant regulatory changes in 2026, impacting competition in the food delivery and retail sectors, with a shift from aggressive price wars to a focus on service quality and consumer trust [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The State Council's Anti-Monopoly Committee announced investigations into the food delivery platform market and the alleged monopolistic behavior of Ctrip, indicating increased regulatory scrutiny [1][2]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration will eliminate VAT export rebates for solar products starting April 1, 2026, reflecting a broader regulatory tightening [1]. - The market supervision authority released a list of major cases related to "involution" competition, highlighting ongoing efforts to address unfair practices in various industries [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape in the food delivery sector is shifting from a "burning money" model to a focus on optimizing user experience and sustainable business practices [2][3]. - Major platforms are transitioning from merely delivering food to providing a broader range of retail services, indicating a strategic pivot towards becoming comprehensive retail infrastructures [4][5]. - The competition is expected to evolve into a "full-scenario retail war," integrating offline experiences, supply chain efficiency, and product quality [4][5]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly rejecting "involution" products characterized by extreme price cuts, signaling a demand for better quality and service [6][7]. - The market is anticipated to segment into two layers: one focused on efficiency and cost-effectiveness, and another on emotional and personalized experiences [8][12]. - The rise of local and individual creators is fostering a diverse ecosystem, enhancing consumer engagement and satisfaction [12][14]. Group 4: Food Safety and Transparency - Regulatory efforts are shifting from reactive measures to proactive prevention in food safety, aiming for a comprehensive regulatory framework to ensure consumer trust [9][10]. - New standards and regulations are being developed for pre-packaged food, emphasizing transparency and accountability in the food supply chain [9][10]. - The implementation of traceability systems and enhanced monitoring is expected to improve food safety and consumer confidence [10][11].