高层楼房林立的北京郊外住宅区（2025年2月，北京市） IMF以政府的宏观经济政策和中美双方11月实施的关税下调为由上调了预测值。由于中国政府提出 了"反内卷"政策等，预计2025年平均为0%的通货膨胀率到2026年将上升至0.8%…… 12月10日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）公布了关于中国经济的年度报告，预测中国2025年增长率为 5.0%，2026年为4.5%。与10月发布的世界经济展望相比，分别上调0.2个百分点和0.3个百分点。 中国政府提出了2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增长率定为5%左右的目标。IMF以政府的宏观经济政策 和中美双方11月实施的关税下调为由上调了预测值。 由于中国政府提出了遏制过度降价、生产和投资的"反内卷"政策等，预计2025年平均为0%的通货膨胀 率到2026年将上升至0.8%。 报告指出，持续的房地产不景气、地方政府的财政恶化、消费者心理低迷正在导致内需疲软和通货紧缩 压力。从中期来看，生产率低下和老龄化将拖累经济增长率。 报告建议称，作为政府的政策，有必要优先考虑"摆脱对出口和投资的过度依赖，转向消费主导的增长 模式"。为了扩大内需，需要采取财政刺激政策和社会保障制度，加 ...

花旗预计多晶硅价格下行空间有限，主要是有成本水平的支持。在中国光伏领域，更看好逆变器 (inverter)厂商，例如阳光电源和大宇，它们受益于储能系统的高需求增长;同时，多晶硅制造商也受益 于预计在2026年出台的反内卷措施，这些措施旨在缓解产能过剩。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，本周光伏产品价格相对稳定，有成本水平可能起到支撑作用，尽 管光伏玻璃产品价格下调2-3%,主要原因是库存压力以及需求疲软。 截至12月4日,光伏企业的平均库存期较9月底的15天，增至31.1天，是9月底的两倍多。由于今年底没有 安装高峰期，近期中国太阳能装置需求较低。除多晶硅产能恢复外，大多数组件的月度需求预计在12月 将下降，因为计划减产。 ...

报告建议称，作为政府的政策，有必要优先考虑"摆脱对出口和投资的过度依赖，转向消费主导的增长 模式"。为了扩大内需，需要采取财政刺激政策和社会保障制度，加快房地产部门改革。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）盐崎健太郎 北京报道 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 高层楼房林立的北京郊外住宅区（2025年2月，北京市） IMF以政府的宏观经济政策和中美双方11月实施的关税下调为由上调了预测值。由于中国政府提出 了"反内卷"政策等，预计2025年平均为0%的通货膨胀率到2026年将上升至0.8%…… 12月10日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）公布了关于中国经济的年度报告，预测中国2025年增长率为 5.0%，2026年为4.5%。与10月发布的世界经济展望相比，分别上调0.2个百分点和0.3个百分点。 中国政府提出了2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增长率定为5%左右的目标。IMF以政府的宏观经济政策 和中美双方11月实施的关税下调为由上调了预测值。 由于中国政府提出了遏制过度降价、生产和投资的"反内卷"政策等，预计2025年平均为0%的通货膨胀 率到2026年将上升至0.8%。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the economic indicators related to inflation, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for November, along with implications for the banking and real estate sectors [2][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **CPI and PPI Trends**: - November CPI increased year-on-year to 0.1%, driven by rising food prices, particularly fresh vegetables, while core CPI remained stable at 1% [2][4]. - November PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year but showed a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating weaker-than-expected performance [2][4][6]. - The overall inflation environment remains subdued, with significant reliance on base effects for any recovery in CPI and PPI [2][9]. - **Sector Performance**: - The banking sector faces regulatory pressures due to the accumulation of long-term bonds, impacting their willingness to hold such assets and potentially affecting yield recovery [2][10][11]. - Recent divergence in performance between real estate stocks and bank stocks reflects market uncertainty regarding the authenticity of real estate sector news, such as mortgage subsidy policies [2][12]. - **Real Estate Sector Dynamics**: - Multiple turning points are identified in the real estate sector, including the emergence of non-performing loans in development loans and anticipated risks in mortgage loans expected to peak between late 2025 and 2026 [2][14]. - Current conditions favor bank stock investments due to their priority in collateral claims over insurance companies [2][14][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Commodity Prices and Market Sentiment**: - A general decline in commodity prices, including glass and coal, is noted, with market expectations for the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference affecting sentiment [2][9]. - The potential impact of international oil prices and the performance of the non-ferrous metals sector on domestic industry differentiation is highlighted [7][8]. - **Future Monitoring Points**: - Key areas to monitor include the sustainability of food prices, particularly fresh vegetables, and the performance of livestock and poultry products [7]. - The effectiveness of anti-involution policies in sectors like photovoltaic and lithium batteries is also crucial for future economic recovery [8]. - **Global Market Influences**: - Upcoming decisions from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, are expected to have significant implications for global markets, particularly concerning interest rates and currency valuations [3][16]. - **Investor Sentiment**: - The recent decline in bank stocks is attributed to irrational market reactions rather than fundamental weaknesses, suggesting potential buying opportunities as prices stabilize [2][18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and sector-specific dynamics.

Inflation Data Summary - November CPI year-on-year increased by 0.7%, matching expectations, and up from 0.2% in the previous month[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained at 1.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[1] - PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.2%, slightly worse than the expected -2.0%, and unchanged from the previous month[1] Key Drivers of CPI Changes - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, significantly above the seasonal average of -0.5%, primarily driven by a 7.2% increase in fresh vegetable prices due to supply shocks[2] - Non-food items showed resilience, with clothing prices up 0.7% and medical services prices increasing by 0.3% for eight consecutive months[2] - Service prices fell by 0.4% month-on-month, negatively impacting core CPI, particularly due to a 5.7% drop in tourism-related prices[2] PPI Insights - PPI has shown a month-on-month increase of 0.1% for two consecutive months, indicating stabilization in industrial product prices[3] - The mining sector saw a significant month-on-month increase of 1.7%, while the raw materials sector experienced a decline of 0.2%[3] - Manufacturing prices in high-weight sectors like photovoltaic equipment and lithium-ion batteries showed reduced year-on-year declines, supporting PPI stability[4] Future Outlook - December inflation readings are expected to remain stable, with CPI likely holding at 0.7% year-on-year if month-on-month changes align with seasonal trends[7] - PPI year-on-year may narrow to -2.0% if the recovery trend continues[7] - The necessity for monetary policy adjustments may increase due to inflation trends and PMI remaining below the growth threshold[7]

展望后市，CPI回升需关注以下两个方面：一是随着南方本地菜逐步上市、北方设施蔬菜供应增加，市 场供需紧张局面有望局部缓解，因此后续的蔬菜价格涨幅可能不及11月，考虑到猪肉对CPI的拖累仍在 延续，鲜果价格增长较为平稳，食品CPI的拖累可能略有放大。二是扩内需政策下部分消费品需求前置 导致价格呈现走弱的态势，或需进一步扩大国补使用范围，并强化服务消费相关政策，才能更持续地带 动消费品和服务价格回升。考虑到"十五五"规划将"扩大优质消费品和服务供给"列为扩大内需战略的关 键支撑，因此我们对后续CPI的回升持谨慎乐观的预期。 11月份CPI环比微跌0.1%（前值0.2%），同比上涨0.7%（前值0.2%），其中翘尾因素较上月改善约0.6 个百分点。整体来看翘尾因素叠加食品拖累减弱是CPI回升主因。食品价格环比上涨0.3%（前值 0.7%），过去五年环比均值为-0.4%；同比下降2.9%(前值-4.4%)，影响CPI同比下降约0.54个百分点。非 食品价格环比上涨0.2%（前值-0.1%），过去五年环比均值为0.1%。核心CPI环比微跌0.1%，同比上涨 1.2%。 鲜菜价格上涨仍是食品CPI的主要贡献，猪肉仍是拖累 ...

Group 1 - In November, economic activity showed signs of weak improvement, with inventory levels decreasing, which may lead to a more orderly recovery in production [1][7] - The manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% in November, indicating that production constraints from high inventory levels are still present [1][7] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% in November, with a faster pace of inventory reduction potentially easing the impact of high inventory on future production [1][7] Group 2 - Demand recovery appears to be stronger, supported by the easing of short-term supply disruptions, which positively impacted exports, rising to 5.9% in November after a decline in October [1][13] - The increase in working days in November contributed to the export rebound, as the "production rush" effect from previous months diminished [1][13] Group 3 - Domestic demand highlights include improvements in investment and service consumption, with the easing of debt repayment pressures potentially benefiting investment [2][22] - Service consumption is expected to remain high due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite some pressure from the decline in "trade-in" programs [2][22] Group 4 - Challenges remain, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where companies are accelerating debt repayments, which may further constrain investment [3][28] - The real estate sector continues to drag on the economy, with expectations of further declines in real estate investment and sales in November [3][42] Group 5 - Inflation indicators showed improvement, with the CPI expected to rise to 0.7% in November, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables and gold [4][57] - The PPI is projected to slightly decline to -2.2% in November, reflecting the lagging effects of the "anti-involution" policies on price recovery in the downstream sectors [4][69] Group 6 - Overall, November's economic indicators suggest improvements in both quantity and price, with actual GDP growth estimated at 4.4%, indicating resilience in growth [4][78] - The demand-side improvements are more pronounced, with short-term factors positively impacting exports and easing investment pressures from debt repayment [4][78]

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 11 月 CPI 同比增幅扩大，各类挖机、装载机销量同比改善 ——行业景气观察（1210） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在部分资源品、消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源 品中，金属价格多数上涨，水泥价格改善；中游制造领域，11 月各类挖掘机、装 载机销量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。信息技术中，11 月集成电路进口、出口同比 增幅扩大，10 月全球半导体销售额同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，11 月服装、 鞋类 CPI 同比增幅扩大，中药材价格上涨。11 月 CPI 同比增幅扩大，PPI 降幅 略有扩大，"反内卷"政策持续推动供给出清。推荐景气较高或有改善的有色、 建材、工程机械、中药、纺织服饰、造纸、存储器、集成电路等。 ❑【本周关注】11 月 CPI 同比增幅扩大，PPI 降幅略有扩大，"反内卷"政策持续 推动供给出清，PPI 回暖趋势不变。细分项目中：1）受极端天气与季节性供应收 缩驱动，鲜菜鲜果价格同比转正，为 CPI 回暖贡献主要增量，粮食、奶类、酒类、 畜肉类降幅均有不同程度收窄；2）受换季需求提振，服装鞋帽价格改善，旅游、 教育、交通工具等出行消 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking the highest growth since March 2024, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [1][2] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a shift in food prices from decline to increase, with fresh vegetable prices surging by 14.5% year-on-year [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2%, indicating stable performance and the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies [1][2] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, reflecting seasonal demand increases and the impact of "anti-involution" policies [4] - The rise in PPI was influenced by increased demand for coal and gas during winter, with coal mining prices rising by 4.1% month-on-month [4] - The "anti-involution" policy has played a significant role in improving PPI data, with prices in emerging industries like photovoltaic equipment and lithium-ion batteries showing reduced year-on-year declines [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the price level will continue to rise moderately from a low base, with CPI expected to increase by around 0.8% year-on-year in 2026 [5] - Core CPI is anticipated to rise to over 1.5% by the end of the year, with potential for CPI to approach 1.0% and possibly reach 2.0% in 2026 [6] - The overall economic environment is expected to support a stable recovery in domestic demand, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and employment continuing to be implemented [6]

Group 1 - In November, economic activity showed signs of weak improvement, with inventory levels decreasing, which may lead to a more orderly recovery in production [1][7] - The manufacturing PMI rose slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2% in November, indicating that production constraints from high inventory levels are still present [1][7] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9% in November, with a faster pace of inventory reduction potentially easing the impact of high inventory on future production [1][7] Group 2 - Domestic demand highlights are seen in investment and service consumption, with the negative impact of debt reduction on investment potentially easing [2][22] - Investment indicators showed a general performance in November, despite a year-on-year decline of approximately 16% in construction and installation investment in October [2][22] - Service consumption is expected to improve due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite pressures from the decline in trade-in programs [2][22] Group 3 - Economic growth pressure remains focused on the manufacturing sector, primarily due to companies accelerating debt repayments, which further constrains investment [3][28] - The real estate sector continues to drag on the economy, with November seeing further declines in real estate investment and commodity housing sales [3][42] - The sales area of commodity housing in November fell by 33.1% year-on-year, indicating a significant downturn in the real estate market [3][42] Group 4 - Inflation indicators showed improvement in November, with CPI rising to 0.7% year-on-year, supported by price increases in fresh vegetables and gold [4][57] - The PPI is expected to remain stable, with upstream commodity prices continuing to support it, although the recovery in mid- and downstream prices is slower [4][51] - The overall economic growth in November is projected to be around 4.4%, indicating resilience in growth despite challenges [4][78]