（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 前期，工业和信息化部办公厅印发《2025年度多晶硅行业专项节能监察任务清单的通知》，对41家多晶 硅企业开展节能监察。中国光伏行业协会引导企业签署自愿控产自律公约；国内头部光伏玻璃企业宣布 自7月起集体减产30%。光伏作为我国整治内卷式竞争的重要行业之一，政策方向已经较为明确，产能 淘汰有望加速。 光伏50ETF（159864）跟踪中证光伏产业指数，包括硅料硅片+组件+设备+电站，集齐光伏全产业链。 消息面，多晶硅行业或迎大整合。消息人士透露，备受关注的多晶硅重组"联合体"平台正在筹划中，收 购方案具体细节仍在商讨。目前规划预计成立700亿元左右规模的基金，经讨论后，将采用百亿资金撬 动700亿的"承债式"方式收购。 反内卷政策持续推进背景下，光伏50ETF（159864）大涨2.3%。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a strong rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the 4000-point mark, closing at 4007.76 points, up 0.97% [6] - The ChiNext Index rose by 1.84% to 3224.62 points, while the STAR 50 Index surged by 3.34% to 1436.86 points, leading the major indices [6] - The total market turnover significantly increased to approximately 2.1 trillion, a 9.6% rise compared to the previous day, indicating a shift in market sentiment from cautious to positive [6][7] Sector Performance - The leading sectors driving the market rebound exhibited a "technology + cyclical" dual-driven characteristic, with indices such as phosphorus chemical (+6.36%), optical module (+5.99%), and aluminum industry (+5.06%) showing strong gains [7] - The aluminum industry index reached a new high for the year, with companies like China Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum hitting the daily limit, while the price of aluminum closed at 21,630 RMB/ton, marking a 1.31% increase [7] - In the technology sector, companies like Cambrian Intelligence saw nearly a 10% increase, suggesting ongoing upward momentum in the AI-driven technology sector [7] Bond Market - The bond market showed a weak adjustment, with the 30-year contract declining to 116.11 RMB, down 0.28%, while the 10-year contract fell by 0.09% to 108.535 RMB [12] - Despite the weak adjustment, the bond market's decline was limited, indicating that institutions still have significant allocation needs as the year-end approaches [12] Commodity Market - The domestic commodity futures market displayed a mixed pattern, with the Nanhua Commodity Index rising by 0.47%, driven by strong performances in the black and lithium carbonate sectors [10] - Coal prices reached new highs, with coking coal leading the gains, supported by tight supply conditions in key production areas [12] - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded to 80,500 RMB/ton, driven by high demand growth in battery production, which increased by 50% year-on-year in September [13] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation strategy focusing on dividends, micro-cap stocks, and industry trends, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to perform well in the long term [14] - The bond market is anticipated to remain loose in the short term, with a focus on domestic policies and the impact of the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts in December [14] - The report highlights the ongoing effects of anti-"involution" policies in the domestic market, with strong price performances expected in commodities like coking coal and lithium carbonate [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in specific companies within the sector [6][33][46]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the oil price has shown a slight increase in Q3 2025, with Brent crude averaging $68.2 per barrel, a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 19.8% decrease year-on-year [6][22][29]. - The upstream oil and gas sector has seen improved performance due to rising oil prices, while the downstream refining sector is experiencing pressure from weak terminal demand [33][34]. - The report recommends focusing on quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [6][33][46]. Summary by Sections Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - In Q3 2025, the oil and gas extraction and oilfield services sector achieved total revenue of 1,579.75 billion yuan, a 4.0% decrease year-on-year but a 3.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [21][23]. - The net profit for the sector was 93.05 billion yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year but up 6.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.9% [21][23]. Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical industry reported total revenue of 1,670.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 5.3% decrease year-on-year but a 3.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [33][34]. - The net profit for this sector was 59.69 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.4% increase year-on-year and a 14.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 17.8% [33][34]. Price Trends and Margins - The report notes that the price spread for major petrochemical products has shown mixed trends, with some margins expanding while others contracted [15][18][34]. - The average price spread for ethylene-ethylene was $605 per ton, an increase of $38 per ton quarter-on-quarter, while the propylene-acrylic acid spread decreased by 440 yuan per ton [15][18]. Recommendations - The report suggests that the polyester sector is tightening in supply and demand, with expectations for improvement in profitability, particularly for companies like Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials [6][33][46]. - It also highlights the potential for large refining companies to benefit from cost improvements and competitive advantages due to domestic policies and overseas refinery contractions [6][33][46].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market has shown resilience and growth potential despite geopolitical risks and economic challenges, with the MSCI China Index up 36.22% year-to-date as of October 29, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Themes - Theme 1: Global Impactful Innovative Companies - China is nurturing globally influential companies, particularly in the healthcare sector, where local pharmaceutical firms are increasingly licensing intellectual property to global firms, leading to potential revenue from royalties [3]. - The cultural export capability of China is also growing, exemplified by the character Labubu, which is gaining international popularity and is expected to generate more overseas revenue than domestic by 2025 [3]. - Theme 2: Diversified Export Markets - China's global export total continues to rise, driven by strong growth in exports to Latin America and emerging Asian markets, indicating potential investment opportunities in companies focusing on non-U.S. markets [4]. - Theme 3: Industries Benefiting from "Anti-Involution" Policies - The Chinese government is implementing policies to address over-competition in various sectors, which may lead to improved pricing and profitability in targeted industries such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and agriculture [5][6]. - Theme 4: Market Share Expansion by Industry Leaders - As the Chinese economy transitions to high-quality development, local industry leaders in sectors like fintech and apparel are seizing opportunities to expand market share despite economic headwinds [7]. - Theme 5: Opportunities from Corporate Governance Reforms - Recent governance reforms in China are enhancing corporate profitability and shareholder returns, with stock buybacks positively impacting earnings per share, presenting opportunities for investors in companies exceeding market expectations in governance [8]. Group 2: Broader Emerging Market Perspective - The Chinese market, often viewed as complex, holds unique advantages and opportunities that can provide excess return potential for investors [9]. - Emerging market equities remain under-allocated and undervalued, with compelling investment stories emerging from sectors like artificial intelligence and structural reforms in countries like India [9]. - Investors are encouraged to look beyond geopolitical concerns and recognize the diversification and growth opportunities presented by China and other emerging markets [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a rational perspective on investment opportunities in the Chinese stock market, which has shown significant growth despite geopolitical challenges and economic slowdowns. The MSCI China Index has increased by 36.22% year-to-date as of October 29, 2025, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 30.42% during the same period [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Themes - Theme 1: Companies with Global Influence in Innovation - China has nurtured a number of globally influential companies, particularly in the healthcare sector, where Chinese pharmaceutical firms are increasingly licensing intellectual property to global firms. This trend is expected to generate patent royalties and is less politically sensitive compared to sectors like semiconductors [5][6]. - Theme 2: Companies Diversifying Export Markets - China's global export total continues to rise, driven by strong growth in exports to Latin America and other emerging markets, despite trade tensions with the U.S. Companies focusing on non-U.S. markets may present overlooked investment opportunities [8]. - Theme 3: Industries Benefiting from "Anti-Involution" Policies - The Chinese government has implemented policies to address over-competition, known as "involution," which aim to improve quality of life and promote sustainable economic growth. These policies are expected to positively impact industries such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and agriculture by reducing excess capacity and improving profitability [10]. - Theme 4: Industry Leaders Increasing Domestic Market Share - As China transitions to high-quality development, local industry leaders in sectors like fintech, sportswear, and functional beverages are seizing opportunities to expand their market share, demonstrating resilience against economic challenges [12]. - Theme 5: Opportunities from Corporate Governance Reforms - Recent governance reforms in China aim to enhance shareholder returns and improve corporate governance. Companies with strong governance are likely to generate substantial excess returns, as evidenced by high levels of profitability and stock buybacks in the market [14]. Group 2: Broader Emerging Market Perspective - The article suggests that emerging markets, including China, are often misunderstood but hold unique advantages and opportunities. Investors should recognize the potential for excess returns from companies benefiting from the discussed trends [16][17]. - Emerging market equities remain an under-allocated and undervalued asset class, with compelling investment narratives emerging from sectors like artificial intelligence and structural reforms in countries like India [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The imbalance between supply and demand of polysilicon has not been reversed, with spot prices remaining stagnant and the 01 contract price fluctuating widely within a range [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: The main contract price of polysilicon showed a weak and narrow - range oscillation. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 53,390 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.44%. The trading volume was 175,236 lots, and the open interest was 125,062 lots, with a net decrease of 3,814 lots [4] - Spot Price: The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [4] - Future Outlook: The profit repair of polysilicon restrains the active production reduction. The polysilicon output in October was 137,000 tons (equivalent to 68GW downstream). In November, the equipment in the southwest production area actively reduced production, and the monthly supply was about 120,000 tons (equivalent to 60GW). Downstream demand lacks increment, and terminal demand remains weak in the situation of "rush installation" and policy bearishness [4] 3.2 Market News - On November 05, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9,730 lots, an increase of 140 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - In September 2025, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25%. From January to September, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 240.27GW [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, the southwest region is reducing production, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The current industrial silicon futures are affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. With its low valuation, there may be upward space if there is policy support [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with high inventory pressure. Although production has started to decline recently and may decrease further in November, downstream production schedules may also weaken. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 5, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was volatile. The main contract 2601 opened at 8900 yuan/ton and closed at 9020 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.06%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2511 main contract was 232,849 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 46,195 lots, an increase of 372 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8700 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8700 - 8900 yuan/ton [1]. - In October 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,400 tons (7.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 17,600 tons (4%). From January to October 2025, the cumulative production was 3.4699 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. In November, the supply change mainly lies in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions, with the combined production in these two regions expected to decline by more than 50%, and the national total supply is expected to drop below 400,000 tons (a 12% decline) [1]. Consumption - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton. Affected by a sharp price increase of a Shandong monomer factory last week, some other monomer factories slightly increased their quotes by 100 - 300 yuan/ton, but the actual transaction price remained at a low level [2]. Strategy - Short - term range trading is recommended. For dry - season contracts, one can go long on dips [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 5, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 53,500 yuan/ton and closing at 53,355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44% from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 125,062 lots (128,876 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 175,236 lots [4]. - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (a 1.16% month - on - month increase), and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW (a 2.49% month - on - month increase). The weekly polysilicon production was 28,200 tons (a 4.41% month - on - month decrease), and the silicon wafer production was 14.24GW (a 3.32% month - on - month decrease) [4][5]. - In October, the polysilicon production was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will significantly decline [5]. Strategy - Short - term range trading is recommended. The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. It offers trend judgments for various commodities within different sectors, including "oscillating", "bullish", and "bearish". 2. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuous period, with A - shares lacking a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to oscillate while accumulating momentum for the next upward movement. There is strong support below the stock index due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - Different commodities in various sectors are affected by a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events, resulting in different price trends and investment outlooks. 3. Summary by Commodity Sectors Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Oscillating. A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, but there is strong support below due to policy and liquidity [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillating. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillating. The tightness of the US dollar liquidity has eased, and precious metals are stabilizing and oscillating [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Oscillating. The tightness of the US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling. Limited industrial drivers and digested macro - benefits lead to an oscillating trend [1]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating. With small production profits, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and production and inventory are both increasing, pressuring the spot price. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. The US government shutdown has increased market risk aversion. LME zinc inventory is continuously decreasing, and the risk of a short squeeze remains, but domestic fundamentals are still in surplus, so be cautious when chasing high prices [1]. - **Nickel**: Oscillating. US economic data and Fed policy expectations affect market risk appetite. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and nickel prices are mainly affected by macro factors in the short term, with high inventory pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating. Macro - sentiment is volatile, and stainless steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - **Tin**: Oscillating. Macro - benefits have been digested, and considering the raw material shortage and good new - quality demand expectations, it is recommended to pay attention to buying at low prices in the long - term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Oscillating. Northwest production capacity is resuming, and southwest production is weak. The impact of the dry season is weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Oscillating. There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Oscillating. The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, and energy - storage demand is strong, but there is hedging pressure [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Oscillating. There are concerns about weakening industrial demand in the off - season, and attention should be paid to upward pressure after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Oscillating. The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is loose, and attention should be paid to upward price pressure [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating. Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but there is an upward opportunity for far - month contracts due to good commodity sentiment [1]. - **Coke**: Oscillating. There is cost support and direct demand, but high supply and inventory accumulation put pressure on the sector, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Oscillating. Short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strong, but high supply and downstream pressure limit price rebound [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating. Coal and coke are strong due to tight supply, but downstream steel prices have weakened first, and there is a risk of the price returning to the oscillating range. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Oscillating. It is currently under the pressure of seasonal production increase and weak exports, but may rebound if export data improves in the traditional production - reduction cycle starting in November [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating. China's purchase of US soybeans may bring a loose supply expectation, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Oscillating. The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders and Canadian rapeseed harvest put pressure on the market [1]. - **Cotton**: Oscillating. Uncertainty in cotton demand exists due to the contradiction between Xinjiang's production capacity expansion and reduced spinning profit. The downside space is limited, but the new - crop basis and futures price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Oscillating. Typhoons have affected sugarcane production, and there is seasonal upward pressure, but the rebound space is limited after new - sugar listing [1]. - **Corn**: Oscillating. There is selling pressure in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to traders' inventory - building rhythm and policy changes [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating. Domestic soybean purchase and processing margins are poor, and the market may rebound to repair margins, but the supply is expected to be loose in the near and far terms, limiting the rebound height [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating. OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation has cooled, and trade policies have eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Oscillating. Similar to crude oil, affected by OPEC+ production policy, geopolitics, and trade policies [1]. - **Asphalt**: Bearish. Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be false, and supply is sufficient with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating. Supported by raw material cost, with decreasing intermediate inventory and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating. Crude oil price decline weakens the cost support of butadiene, and synthetic rubber supply is loose with high inventory [1]. - **PTA**: Oscillating. The news of the "anti - involution" policy, overseas and domestic device failures, and maintenance have affected production and prices [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Oscillating. It follows the decline of crude oil prices, but coal price increase strengthens cost support. The polyester peak season is ending without obvious decline [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating. It is affected by the PTA price and cost, with a strengthening basis [1]. - **Styrene**: Oscillating. Weak Asian benzene prices, low device operating rates, and closed arbitrage windows have affected the market [1]. - **Urea**: Oscillating. Export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from the "anti - involution" policy and cost [1]. - **PE**: Oscillating. High supply leads to large inventory pressure, weakening maintenance, and slow - growing demand [1]. - **PP**: Oscillating. Insufficient maintenance support and new device production increase supply pressure, and demand improvement is less than expected [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillating. New device production and reduced maintenance increase supply pressure, and coal price increase strengthens cost support [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating. Planned production expansion in Guangxi, reduced maintenance concentration, and potential short - squeeze risk [1]. - **LPG**: Oscillating. International oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance with different trends for each variety. For example, protein meals are strong, while some oils are weak, and other commodities are mostly in a state of oscillation [1][8]. - International factors such as US government policies, South American weather, and global trade relations, as well as domestic factors like consumer demand and import/export volumes, significantly influence the market [3][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Oils - **View**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be weak due to strong production expectations for Malaysian palm oil. Domestic oil trends were divided, with palm and rapeseed oil oscillating weakly. - **Logic**: Concerns about US soybean export demand led to a decline in US soybeans. The US government's "shutdown" affected data updates. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing well, and domestic soybean arrivals are expected to be high, slowing down the de - stocking of domestic soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil is likely to accumulate inventory in October, while Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low, and Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. Russian rapeseed harvest may increase domestic rapeseed oil supply [7]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to oscillate weakly, while soybean oil may oscillate [7]. Protein Meals - **View**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are rising, and the market remains strong. - **Logic**: The retention of the 10% tariff on US soybeans by China drove up domestic soybean meal prices, and rapeseed meal followed. Internationally, Chinese purchases are expected to boost US soybean exports in the next 2 - 3 months. The US soybean supply - demand balance may tighten further if the yield is revised down. Brazilian old - crop soybean exports decreased in October, but it has a price advantage. In China, short - term import crushing margins are still in the red, but the traditional consumption peak in the fourth quarter may drive up prices. Medium - to long - term factors such as Chinese purchases, South American weather, and consumption will determine the price increase [2][3][8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans will oscillate, and domestic soybean meal will oscillate with an upward bias [3][8]. Corn/Starch - **View**: Downstream orders support port prices, and the market oscillates. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are generally stable. In the Northeast, farmers are reluctant to sell as storage conditions improve, and transportation bottlenecks increase costs. New grain listing pressure may still affect prices later. With high yields, the cost of gathering grain at ports may decrease, and the demand for building inventories is not strong [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate, and short - term observation is recommended [10]. Pigs - **View**: Supply and demand are loose, and pig prices oscillate. - **Logic**: Futures rebounded with reduced positions, while spot prices remained weak due to high supply. Short - term, second - fattening is affected by price rebounds. Medium - term, the large number of sows in the first half of 2025 will lead to increased pig supply in the fourth quarter. Long - term, sow culling is expected to accelerate, reducing supply pressure in the second half of 2026. Demand is slightly increasing with the drop in temperature, and group farms are actively selling [10]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate weakly in the short - term, and long - term prices may be supported by sow culling [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The market oscillates and adjusts, with a bearish sentiment. - **Logic**: The market is still weak, but the decline has slowed. The difference in valuation between RU and NR may lead to a narrowing of the spread. Without new macro - level support, prices may continue to decline. However, there may still be speculation about the end of the domestic tapping season and RU warehouse receipts [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate at the bottom with high elasticity, and short - term focus is on expanding the RU - NR spread [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market rebounds from the bottom, and attention should be paid to changes in trading sentiment. - **Logic**: The BR contract rebounded after reaching a low. Lower prices increased downstream purchasing interest, and the stabilization of butadiene also supported the market. However, butadiene supply is expected to be in surplus in the next two months [13][14]. - **Outlook**: Before the supply - demand imbalance of butadiene is resolved, short - selling on rallies is recommended [14]. Cotton - **View**: The main contract oscillates, with limited upside and downside. - **Logic**: New - season cotton production in Xinjiang is lower than expected, and higher acquisition costs supported prices in October. Macro - level benefits such as improved Sino - US trade relations may promote cotton imports and textile exports in the future, but the short - term impact is limited. New cotton listings and hedging pressure may limit price increases, while cost support restricts price drops [14]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range; in the long - term, the cotton market may reduce inventory and prices may rise [14]. Sugar - **View**: The strategy of short - selling on rallies is maintained. - **Logic**: Internationally, Brazilian sugar production has passed its peak, but new sugar supply from the Northern Hemisphere will increase. Brazil's production is slightly higher than last year, and Thailand and India are expected to increase production in the new season. Domestically, demand from August to September was average, and industrial inventories increased. Although import controls and limited import quotas supported prices, the overall supply is expected to increase [15]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to long - term, prices will oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [15]. Pulp - **View**: The market rises on high volume, and the enthusiasm for cash - and - carry arbitrage increases. - **Logic**: Futures prices rose due to expectations of rising paper prices and increasing wood chip prices. However, the long - standing negative factors in the pulp market, such as low demand for softwood pulp, over - supply of hardwood pulp, and high - cost futures contracts, limit price increases. There are also some positive factors, such as rising packaging paper prices and improving cultural paper demand [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [17]. Offset Printing Paper - **View**: Spot prices are stable, and the market oscillates. - **Logic**: On November 5, prices in Shandong remained unchanged. The supply of new production capacity is stabilizing, and the supply surplus is still severe. Demand from publishing tenders has started, but social orders are not strong. Some paper mills plan to raise prices in early November, but the market is waiting and watching [18]. - **Outlook**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to new factors affecting market sentiment [19]. Logs - **View**: Spot prices are stable, and the market oscillates. - **Logic**: Log prices in ports remained stable this week. Traders' active sales and weak sales of laminated wood put pressure on prices. New Zealand's log imports may face problems such as blue - stain wood. However, the current low valuation and inventory in Jiangsu limit further price drops [21]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate at the bottom, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for speculators [21]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The special index shows that the commodity 20 index increased by 0.18% to 2526.40, the industrial product index remained unchanged at 2213.59, and the PPI commodity index decreased by 0.17% to 1335.37 [179]. - **Sector Index**: The agricultural product index on November 5, 2025, was 931.46, with a daily increase of 0.89%, a 5 - day increase of 0.52%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.01%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.44% [180].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-11-6 每日观点 玻璃： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、基本面：供给低位企稳回升，但沙河地区"煤改气"等供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单 整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱，库存高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1048元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1097元/吨，基差为-49元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6579万重量箱，较前一周减少1.24%，库存在5年均值上方运行； 偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃供给端扰动刺激，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利空： 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行 ...