Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper was oscillating strongly, up 0.11% to $9,649/ton, while SHFE copper主力 declined 0.08% to 78,140 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import window remained closed. US economic data was weak, and the probability of a June interest rate cut was low. LME copper inventory decreased, while Comex and SHFE copper inventories increased. Due to the off - season and high prices, downstream procurement was cautious. The weak dollar and potential US tariffs on copper provided some support. The copper price was facing a directional choice, and if it effectively broke through the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton resistance range, it might rise further [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum were oscillating strongly. Alumina supply and demand both increased, and the cost of the ore end provided short - term support. Electrolytic aluminum demand had structural resilience, and the increase in US import aluminum tariffs supported the aluminum price [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.94%, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.29%. Nickel ore prices were stable. The stainless - steel industry chain had weak demand, and the supply side had production cuts. The new energy sector had weak supply and demand. The market was mainly in a short - term oscillating state, lacking new driving factors [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzed price trends, macro - economic data, inventory changes, demand situations, and factors affecting prices, and gave price resistance range [1]. - **Aluminum**: Analyzed price trends, supply - demand relationships of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and factors supporting the price [2]. - **Nickel**: Analyzed price trends, inventory changes, and the supply - demand situation of the stainless - steel and new energy industries, and judged the market state [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Provided price, inventory, and other data of copper in different markets and time points, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [3]. - **Aluminum**: Presented price, inventory, and other data of aluminum, such as changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [4]. - **Nickel**: Offered price, inventory, and other data of nickel, including changes in electrolytic nickel, nickel iron, and nickel ore prices, and inventory levels [4]. - **Zinc**: Showed price, inventory, and other data of zinc, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [5]. - **Tin**: Displayed price, inventory, and other data of tin, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Included charts of spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Contained charts of SHFE near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [12][15][18]. - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Had charts of LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Included charts of SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Contained charts of social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Included charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][45]. 4. Team Introduction - Introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, professional qualifications, and achievements [48][49][50].

Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Core Views - The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, but the overseas trade situation remains volatile. The upward stimulus to US copper prices from the increase in US aluminum tariffs lacks long - term emotional support. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the marginal stability of processing fees and the widening of the refined - scrap spread have alleviated supply concerns. With weakening consumer resilience, the resistance to copper price increases has grown [1]. - The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, leading to a rebound in aluminum prices. Low inventory levels support aluminum prices, but the increase in US aluminum tariffs has pressured demand expectations, and short - term aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly [3]. - The demand for lead ingots is weak, while primary lead production is rising. The开工 rate of secondary lead enterprises is declining, and if secondary lead production cuts lead to greater scrap price drops, it may deepen the downside space for lead prices [4]. - The processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising, and the expectation of zinc ore oversupply persists. With increasing zinc ingot production and weak terminal consumption, zinc prices face significant downward risks [6]. - The slow resumption of production in Myanmar and concerns about tin ore supply have led to a sharp rebound in tin prices. However, the supply release trend is inevitable, and with no significant increase in demand, the rebound space for tin prices is limited [7]. - Macro uncertainties are high for nickel. Although the short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, they remain bearish overall. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed substantially, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the commodity market sentiment, changes in positions, and supply disruptions [10]. - The alumina market has continuous ore - end disturbances, but the over - capacity situation persists. It is recommended to short at high prices lightly, with the ore price being the core factor [13]. - The cost of stainless steel has strong support, but the market is in a supply - surplus situation, and trade - based price support is weak [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 0.11% at $9649/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78140 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 77500 - 78600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9550 - 9700 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2500 to 141350 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 3.2 million tons [1]. - Premium: The domestic copper spot import loss widened to about 1000 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 0.67% at $2487/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20110 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 19900 - 20200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2450 - 2510 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: The three - location aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons to 39.1 million tons, and the two - location aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 8.0 million tons. SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 4.9 million tons [3]. - Premium: The spot premium in East China decreased to 100 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.59% at 16665 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 19 to $1988.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased to 4.49 million tons, and SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 4.17 million tons [4]. - Premium: The refined - scrap spread was - 25 yuan/ton, and the lead ingot import loss was - 887.96 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 1.21% at 22331 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 49.5 to $2722.5/ton [6]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 7.74 million tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.14 million tons [6]. - Premium: The Shanghai basis was 510 yuan/ton, and the zinc ingot import loss was - 491.89 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - Price: Tin prices rebounded significantly. The expected operating range for domestic SHFE tin this week is 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is 28000 - 31000 dollars/ton [7][8]. - Reason: Slow resumption of production in Myanmar and concerns about tin ore supply [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices fluctuated. The short - term expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. - Supply and demand: Refined nickel production is at a historical high, while stainless steel demand is weak, and downstream acceptance of high - priced nickel is limited [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index was flat at 60537 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed up 1.90% at 61080 yuan. The expected operating range for the LC2507 contract is 59700 - 62100 yuan/ton [10]. - Market: The short - term fundamentals have not changed substantially, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.11% to 3055 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton [12][13]. - Inventory: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.96 to 10.24 million tons [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices lightly, with the ore price as the core factor [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12720 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The Foshan market's Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price was 12950 yuan/ton, and the Wuxi market's Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price was 13100 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: Futures inventory decreased by 5299 to 124391 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.61% to 109.96 million tons [15]. - Market: The cost has strong support, but the market is in a supply - surplus situation, and trade - based price support is weak [15].

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices declined overnight, with Brent 08 contract down 1.07%. Saudi Arabia aims to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and lower the official price premium for light crude oil sold to Asia in July. The supply disruption caused by wildfires in Canada has partially recovered. Consider shorting opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may lead to a co - weakening of high - sulfur fuel oil cracking and EFS. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil due to weak supply and demand [20]. - The discount of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel. Supply increase lacks momentum, demand is seasonally improving, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. The BU cracking spread faces short - term回调 pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [21]. - In June, the decline in CP is relatively small. Although the Middle - East supply is abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment. The supply pressure has weakened, and the market is stabilizing, maintaining a low - level shock [22]. - Urea agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest break period, and the market trading sentiment is weak. Production enterprises are continuously accumulating inventory. Exports are gradually liberalized, but inspections are still restricted. The market weakens within the range [23]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold showed a strong - side oscillation overnight, while silver had limited fluctuations. The US economic data is weak, and the Fed's attitude is cautious. Gold prices should be bought on dips based on the strong support at $3000 [3]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper showed a solid form with inventory decreasing rapidly and logistics shifting to the US. Consider short - selling on rebounds or active position - swapping [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Demand is facing seasonal decline and trade frictions. There is resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Participate in short - selling on rallies [4]. - The bauxite mine incident in Guinea has temporarily subsided. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. Consider short - selling after the futures discount is gradually repaired [5]. - The zinc market's fundamentals are shifting from weak supply - demand to increasing supply and weakening demand. Continue the strategy of short - selling on rebounds [6]. - The actual consumption of lead is not optimistic. The cost - side support is strong, and the lower limit of Shanghai lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan per ton [7]. - The nickel market is affected by trade conflicts. The supply of stainless steel is high, and the inventory situation is mixed. Short - sell on rebounds [8]. - The tin price continued to rise overnight. The low - grade tin production may be slower than expected. Hold previous high - level short positions and swap positions on rebounds [9]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices slightly declined at night. Rebar demand has short - term resilience but is under pressure in the off - season. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand have both increased, and inventory has decreased. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [13]. - Iron ore prices oscillated strongly overnight. Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The rebound space is expected to be limited [14]. - Coke prices rebounded significantly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price may continue to rise in the short term [15]. - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly. The current rebound is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a reversal signal [16]. Group 5: Chemicals - Methanol prices stopped rising and oscillated at night. The industry is accumulating inventory, and prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the inventory in Jiangsu [24]. - Styrene prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation. Some enterprises plan to reduce production [25]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term decline space is limited. The demand off - season continues [26]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level due to expected supply increase and export decline. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at a high level [27]. - PX and PTA prices are under pressure due to changes in supply - demand patterns. Pay attention to terminal orders and polyester production cuts [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices continue to decline. The market sentiment is weakening [29]. Group 6: Grains and Oils - Soybean meal futures oscillated flat, with weak upward drive. Supply is expected to be abundant. Short - term bearish, pay attention to weather changes from June to August [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate within a range. The market is affected by policy expectations, supply pressure, and weather [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are under short - term pressure. Pay attention to trade policies and overseas weather [36]. - Domestic soybeans oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the auction results and weather [37]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Demand is weak, and new wheat may replace some corn demand [38]. Group 7: Livestock and Poultry - Hog futures oscillated weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the later stage, and short - term prices may continue to decline [39]. - Egg futures hit a new low. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may continue to decline [40]. Group 8: Textiles - Cotton prices: US cotton may benefit from rainfall, but the planting progress is behind. Domestic cotton has tight inventory expectations, and the market is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [41]. - Sugar prices: International sugar supply expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar has less inventory pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42]. - Apple prices oscillate. Market demand has declined, and the focus is on the new - season output estimate [43]. Group 9: Others - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [44]. - Pulp prices slightly declined. Inventory is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and pay attention to import data. Consider buying on significant dips [45]. - Stock index futures rebounded. Due to geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, the market may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to domestic policy signals [46]. - Treasury bond futures closed up. Overseas budget expansion and domestic bond issuance acceleration may affect the market. The short - term long - side may maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and pay attention to curve - steepening opportunities [47].

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 6 月 5 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 东莞菜油贸易商报价：东莞三菜 09+50 （6 月），一菜 09+250（6 月）。华 东市场豆油基差价格：一豆：6 月上 ...

Production Side - As of the fourth week of May, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.89%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 42.64%, increasing by 0.83 percentage points month-on-month[3] - The cement mill operating rate was at a low level of 41.83%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The inventory of rebar was 186.42 million tons, down 0.69 percentage points month-on-month[3] Demand Side - In May, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 201.56 million square meters, down 2.12% month-on-month[60] - The land transaction area was 903.48 million square meters, down 5.97% month-on-month[60] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 60,823 units, up 18.85% month-on-month[89] Price Trends - The average price of cement was 368.33 yuan/ton, down 1.61% month-on-month[72] - The price of rebar was 3,077.13 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month-on-month[73] - The PPI for copper was 77,042 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month-on-month[99]

化工日报 | 2025-06-04 青岛港口库存小幅下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13450元/吨，较前一日变动+45元/吨。NR主力合约11810元/吨，较前一日变动-55 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13400元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13500元/吨， 较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1670美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1610美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11400元/吨，较前一日变动-300元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11200元/吨，较前一日变动-200元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex最新数据显示，1-4月，越南出口混合橡胶合计28.2万吨，较去年的27万吨同比增加4.4%。 其中，SVR3L混合出口6.1万吨，同比增33%；SVR10混合出口21.8万吨，同比降2%；RSS3混合出口0.33万吨，同 比降6%。 针对于2025年"端午节"假期轮胎企业检修计划情况，隆众资讯对部分样本企业进行了调研，由于5月初部分企业已 经在"劳动节"假期 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 3 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约下跌 0.13%至 77650 元/吨。节 日期间美关税影响再起，金融市场再现动荡，短期将对铜价增添不利的 情绪影响。上游进口铜精矿市场整体交投氛围清淡，现货市场 TC 价格持 稳-43 左右，冶炼厂对加工费的接受度已达极限，后续继续下行阻力较 大。卡库拉矿山地震虽未影响近期发运，但节后若持续停产减少发运或 带来供应冲击。下游节前备货需求较为一般，新增订单有限，但炼厂发 货较少，节前库存再度表现下降，但去库幅度较小。节后，考虑节假期 间市场到货量预计有所增加，下游消费逐渐由旺转淡，近月高 BACK 月 差结构以及关税不利情绪影响再起，铜价上行空间将受到限制。但基于 目前库存仍维持低位，供应端扰动仍存，下跌空间同样有限。沪铜近期 或仍维持震荡格局。关注近月合约持仓状况。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 3 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约下跌 1.12%至 19860 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，后续关注是否有复产 可能。几内亚矿端扰动尚未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击， 其影响要等到 7 月份才能体现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity atmosphere has improved, but the overseas trade situation is volatile. Different metals show different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices may face resistance in rising, aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, zinc prices have a large downward risk, and tin prices may see a downward shift in the center of gravity [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Different Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.24% to $9638/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,180 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 77,500 - 78,800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9500 - 9700/ton [1]. - **Industry Situation**: LME inventory decreased by 4600 tons to 143,850 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio increasing to 51.7%. During the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic social inventory increased by over 10,000 tons. The SHFE copper warrant decreased by 0.3 to 31,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, while in Guangdong, the spot changed from premium to discount. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained around 800 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1330 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum fell 0.1% to $2470/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 19,990 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 19,850 - 20,150 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2440 - 2500/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 0.8 to 523,000 lots, and the futures warrant slightly decreased to 51,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 to 519,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in the mainstream areas decreased slightly. The spot in East China remained at a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 368,000 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio declined to 12.5% [3]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index rose 99.74% to 16,568 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S rose to $1969.5/ton [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic social inventory increased to 44,900 tons. The demand for lead ingots is weak, the production of primary lead is increasing, while the production of recycled lead is decreasing due to factors such as limited raw material inventory and high finished - product inventory [4]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.24% to 22,065 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose to $2673/ton. Zinc prices still have a large downward risk [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The zinc concentrate processing fee increased again, and it is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in June 2025 will be 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons or 7.43%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.13%. The terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory of zinc ingots is accumulating [5]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 230,000 - 260,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $28,000 - 31,000/ton. The tin price center may shift downward [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The mine restart is progressing. The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) started phased restart in late April, and the first batch of tin concentrates has entered the logistics. The Wa State tin mine restart was approved in late April, and actual production is expected to resume from July to August. The smelting end has a low operating rate due to raw material shortage. The downstream demand has not increased significantly, but there is some demand for replenishment at low prices [6][7]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The refined nickel production is at a historical high. The stainless - steel market is mediocre, and the downstream acceptance of high - price nickel is limited. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore is stable, the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore is difficult to rise due to demand, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore is stable after a decline [8]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index closed at 60,537 yuan, a decrease of 0.33%. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2507 contract is 59,200 - 61,200 yuan/ton. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index rose 1.18% to 2992 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short lightly at high prices [11][12]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some regions increased. The import window is open. The futures inventory decreased. The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [11][12]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The cost support is high, but under the pattern of oversupply, the market is pessimistic [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some markets remained stable. The raw - material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased to 1.1177 million tons, with a 0.85% month - on - month increase. The 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42% [14].

Group 1: Iron Ore and Coal Market - Global iron ore shipments totaled 34.31 million tons from May 27 to June 2, an increase of 2.42 million tons month-on-month. Shipments from Australia and Brazil accounted for 28.69 million tons, with Australia alone contributing 19.21 million tons, a decrease of 0.93 million tons [1] - Mongolia's ER company held an online auction for coking coal on June 3, with a starting price of 750 CNY/ton for Mongolian 3 premium coal. The auction for 12,800 tons ended with no bids, marking the 18th consecutive failed auction since April 22 [1] Group 2: Soybean and Palm Oil Market - As of late May, commercial soybean inventories in major oil mills in China rose to nearly 7 million tons due to concentrated imports. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, followed by 9.5 million tons in July and 8.5 million tons in August, indicating sufficient domestic supply [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports in May reached 1,230,787 tons, a 13.21% increase from the previous month [1] - India's edible oil imports in May surged by 37% to 1.18 million tons, the highest level in five months, with palm oil imports skyrocketing by 87% to 600,000 tons, the highest in six months [2] Group 3: Oil Prices and Wood Inventory - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted upward by 65 CNY and 60 CNY per ton, respectively, effective from June 3. The average increase for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel is 0.05 CNY per liter [2] - As of May 30, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China decreased by 20,000 cubic meters to 341,000 cubic meters, a reduction of 0.58% week-on-week, reaching a three-and-a-half-month low [2] Group 4: Aluminum and Lead Production - In May 2025, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production increased by 2.66% month-on-month and 4.06% year-on-year. The built production capacity was approximately 11.08 million tons, with actual operating capacity declining by 0.46% and an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 CNY/ton as of May 30 [2] - A medium-sized lead smelting plant in Yunnan is expected to undergo routine maintenance in mid-June for 30-40 days, which will reduce lead production by nearly 2,000 tons in June, while silver production is expected to remain normal [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, the psychological price of nickel ore has decreased, and the cost support for refined nickel has slightly weakened. In the medium term, the supply remains loose, which restricts the upside potential. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the news from the ore end still affects short - term market trends. The nickel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is affected by the weak operation of nickel. The spot market trading atmosphere is weak, and the terminal purchases mainly for rigid demand. The overall supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the demand is slowly recovering. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure has eased. The market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is bearish. The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is difficult to boost. The raw material cost support is weakening, and the fundamental supply - demand contradiction is clear. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract price ranging from 56,000 to 60,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The zinc supply side shows a long - term loosening trend, but the short - term TC increase is weak. The demand side is stable, but there is a weakening expectation after the peak season. The inventory decline supports the price. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy can be considered. The main contract price is expected to range from 21,500 to 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. Aluminum - For alumina, the current inventory reduction and tight spot supply support the price, with a short - term support level of 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the low inventory supports the price, but the lack of macro - positive factors and the pressure on the demand side limit the upside. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate between 19,500 and 21,000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The strong fundamentals limit the downside, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price focusing on the range of 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - The tin supply is expected to be restored, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the supply - side raw material recovery rhythm [14]. Summary by Directory Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.40% to 121,525 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1.31% to 122,625 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 13.64% to 2,500 yuan/ton [1]. Cost - The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel decreased by 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production of electrowinning nickel increased by 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 6.08% to 36,300 tons, and imports decreased by 68.84% to 8,164 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.24% to 27,742 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.14% to 44,151 tons [1]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesia's production decreased by 6.67% to 42 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 3.80% to 51.08 million tons [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.98% to 60,900 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.00% to 59,300 yuan/ton [5]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65% to 73,810 tons, and demand increased by 3.02% to 89,627 tons. The total inventory increased by 6.81% to 96,202 tons [5]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,830 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, refined zinc production increased by 1.55% to 55.54 million tons, and exports increased by 75.76% to 0.25 million tons. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 6.72% to 7.50 million tons [8]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.15% to 20,380 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [11]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% to 360.60 million tons. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 8.26% to 51.10 million tons [11]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.03% to 78,485 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 150 yuan/ton [12]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32% to 112.57 million tons, and imports decreased by 19.06% to 25 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 4.81% to 78.03 million tons [12]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.23% to 259,000 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.52% to 15,200 tons. SHEF inventory increased by 0.33% to 8,445 tons [14].