黄金市场的"冰与火之歌"：关税风暴与降息迷雾下的央行扫货潮 华尔街的资深交易员们最近可能集体患上了"黄金眩晕症"。 6月15日，全球央行以三年来的最快速度囤 积黄金，仿佛在进行一场无声的竞赛。 但与此同时，黄金价格却像坐上了过山车，从每盎司3300美元 的高位一路俯冲至3200美元附近，上演了一出"冰与火之歌"。 这场魔幻现实主义大戏的幕后，是两股强大力量的激烈角逐：挥舞关税大棒的贸易政策，以及美联储降 息预期的步步逼近。 美联储主席鲍威尔看似稳坐钓鱼台，但美联储内部的19位决策者却在激烈的争论中几乎掀翻了房顶。 六月份的议息会议纪要显示，至少有6人投票支持立即降息，而7人则坚称通胀尚未完全消退，不能轻举 妄动。 剩下的6人则持折衷立场，认为可以在九月前降息两次。 这种"一桌三派"的局面，在过去十年中实属罕见。 市场却早已先行为主，大举押注年内降息100个基 点，赌盘上的资金堆积如山。 7月12日公布的CPI数据更是火上浇油——美国CPI突然降至3.1%，比上个月大幅下降0.6%。 随着联邦 基金利率降至3.75%，10年期国债收益率更是跌至3.4%。 关税的回旋镖：延时引爆的成本炸弹 今年五月，当特朗普政府 ...

截至2025年7月16日 10:54，中证稀土产业指数下跌0.46%。成分股方面涨跌互现，华宏科技领涨 7.19%，盛和资源上涨4.18%，奔朗新材上涨3.83%；京运通领跌，三川智慧、宁波韵升跟跌。稀土ETF 嘉实(516150)下修调整。拉长时间看，截至2025年7月15日，稀土ETF嘉实近1周累计上涨6.05%。 流动性方面，稀土ETF嘉实盘中换手3.58%，成交9933.64万元。拉长时间看，截至7月15日，稀土ETF嘉 实近1周日均成交2.79亿元，居可比基金第一。 规模方面，稀土ETF嘉实最新规模达27.64亿元，创近1年新高，位居可比基金第一。份额方面，稀土 ETF嘉实最新份额达21.93亿份，创近1年新高，位居可比基金第一。资金流入方面，稀土ETF嘉实最新 资金净流入1.55亿元。 中信建投证券近期研报观点指出，稀土海外高价将传导至国内市场，叠加金九银十消费旺季原料采购前 置，下游补库预期下，稀土价格易涨难跌。参考过往出口管制金属走势，海外高价往往带动国内价格上 涨，企业利润增厚，板块有望迎来估值+利润双击。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。稀土ETF嘉实连续4天获杠杆资金净买入，最高单日获得1 ...

如果PPI数据进一步确认通胀压力，降息预期可能继续降温，金价可能面临进一步下行风险。然而，若 全球贸易紧张局势加剧，黄金的避险需求可能被重新点燃，推动价格反弹。对于投资者而言，当前的黄 金市场既充满挑战，也蕴含机遇。短期内，金价可能继续在3300美元至3400美元的区间内震荡，但长期 来看，地缘政治风险、通胀预期以及货币政策的宽松趋势都可能为金价提供上行动力。建议投资者密切 周三（7月16日）亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微涨，目前交投于3330美元/盎司附近，特朗普称将很快对小 国发送关税信函，税率或略高于10%，给金价提供避险支撑。美元指数在过去四个交易日连续上涨，周 二最高触及98.70，创6月23日以来新高。美元的强势使得以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的投资者变 得更加昂贵，从而对金价构成压力。然而，市场对美元的上涨更多解读为技术性调整，而非长期趋势的 转变。美元指数正在逼近50日移动平均线和100整数关口，这可能只是短期内的技术性整理，黄金市场 仍有回暖空间。 关注即将公布的PPI数据以及特朗普政府关税政策的最新进展，同时保持对美元和债券收益率走势的关 注，以把握黄金市场的投资机会。 尽管金价在短期内呈现回 ...

Group 1 - The uncertainty surrounding the ruling party's ability to secure a majority in the upcoming July 20 Senate elections has led to selling pressure on the yen [1] - The yen's exchange rate against the dollar fell to the 149 yen range for the first time in three months, indicating market concerns about the ruling party's potential loss of majority [1] - A survey conducted by the Nikkei on July 13-15 revealed that the ruling coalition's ability to secure the necessary 50 seats has become precarious, raising fears of increased government debt if they need to cooperate with opposition parties advocating for expansionary fiscal policies [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, up from 2.4% in May, which has cooled expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The confirmation of accelerating inflation has contributed to a stronger dollar against various currencies, further exacerbating the selling pressure on the yen [2]

最近黄金的价格走势，自4月中旬以来，围绕3150美元/盎司至3450美元/盎司运行，高位震荡明显，这和前文黄金的价格分析预期基本上一致。 边缘政治冲突不断，贸易摩擦接踵而来，黄金价格是不是仍继续向上呢？或者说，最近的随着消息面消化，避险情绪下降，黄金价格会转而下行呢？ 个人认为多重因素下，黄金价格可能不同的时间，价格的变化有所差异，这里我们从时间的维度来分析黄金的价格走势。 黄金价格仍承压，有下行的动能。主要表现在美元与美债收益率走强，黄金价格的跷跷板效应，压制黄金价格上行。 美国6月CPI环比上涨0.3%，为1月以来最大涨幅），推动美元指数创近三周新高，同时美债收益率升至六周高位，压制无息资产黄金的吸引力。 另一方面，市场对美联储9月降息预期从80%降至53%，若后续PPI数据进一步确认通胀压力，降息预期可能继续降温，金价或承压。 黄金价格的潜在支撑仍然存在，这也是近期黄金在高压之下，仍上行的主要动力。 在风云变幻的金融市场中，黄金价格走势犹如海上孤舟，牵动着无数投资者的心。自4月中旬以来，黄金价格在3150 - 3450美元/盎司区间高位震荡，与前期 预期基本相符。当下，边缘政治冲突与贸易摩擦不断，黄金价 ...

投资者等待美国周三将公布的生产者物价指数(PPI)，寻找更多美联储动向的线索。 周三（7月16日）亚市早盘，现货黄金小幅上涨，目前黄金价格交投于3330美元附近，昨日金价在CPI 数据公布后回吐日内涨幅，一度下破3320美元关口，最终收跌0.60%，收报3322.99美元/盎司，为连续 第二个交易日走低。 美国周二发布的数据显示，美国6月CPI同比增长2.7%，符合预期，但高于5月份的2.4%。美国6月CPI环 比增长0.3%，与市场预期一致，但高于前值0.1%，为今年1月以來最大增幅。 此外，美国6月核心CPI同比增长2.9%，增幅高于5月份的2.8%，而6月核心CPI环比增长0.2%。 市场普遍认为，美国总统特朗普的关税政策增加了物价压力，促使美联储按兵不动，静待其后续影响。 美联储主席鲍威尔此前曾表示，预期夏季物价将上升。 联邦基金期货交易显示，今年底前预估降息幅度为44个基点，低于通胀数据公布前的48个基点，市场仍 预期首次降息将于9月启动。 美债收益率的持续上涨在周二也打压金价走势。周二美国10年期公债收益率上涨至4.487%，创6月11日 以来最高，30年期公债收益率触及5.022%的六周峰值。收 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 16 日星期三 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，伦敦金在 CPI 数据公布后回吐日内涨幅，一度下破 3320 美元关 | | 研究员：王伟 | 口，最终收跌 0.58%，收报 3323.29 美元/盎司，为连续第二个交易日走低；伦敦银回落 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 至 38 美元关口下方，最终收跌 1.12%，报 37.686 美元/盎司。受外盘影响，沪金主力合 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 约收跌 0.42%，报 774.92 元/克，沪银主力合约收跌 0.26%，报 9160 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数持续拉升，最终收涨 0.54%，报 98.62。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率攀升，收报 4.488 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年07月16日08时17分 报告导读： 二季度及上半年经济数据公布，房地产方面的数据仍偏弱，显示目前该行业仍处于震荡筑底的过程中 。另外，中央城市工作会议在京举行，并无上 周传闻的所谓的重磅利多。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，上周螺纹产量有所下降，厂库回升，社库继续下降，总库存继续下降，表观需求 环比有所回落，数据显示目前处于供需双弱的状态 。从需求的季节性规律看，随着高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱，且库存预计将会小幅回升 。整体来看，目前市场交易的是弱现实和强预期 ，但是强预期主要是"反内卷"可能带来的新一轮供给侧改革，对政策的乐观预期也有所加强。从技 术上看，期价脉冲式上涨后遇阻，上方有前期的跳空缺口以及年线等的压制 。 操作建议： 维持观望 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 目前钢厂盈利率尚可，样本钢厂盈利面接近 60%，上周 247 家钢厂铁水产量 239.8 万吨，环比上周下降 1.0 万吨。随着下游消费高峰期结束以及钢 厂的限产，预计近期铁水产量将进一步回落 。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the weakening of the near - month spread, stubborn CPI in the US, and potential sanctions on Russia, with short - term volatility and a mid - term bearish outlook [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a neutral - to - high valuation, with short - term supply - demand weakness and expected high - level fluctuations in unilateral prices and a strengthening trend in crack spreads [3][5]. - The liquefied gas market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to run weakly [5][8]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see higher prices due to strong demand and increased LNG exports, while the European market is expected to be volatile due to stable supply and weak demand [8][9]. - The fuel oil market has different situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [10][12]. - The PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PR, and other polyester - related markets are expected to fluctuate and be sorted out, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [13][15][16]. - The styrene market is expected to show an oscillating trend due to factors such as supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [23][25]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand situation, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term, while the caustic soda market has a reduced upward drive, and short - term long positions are recommended to take profits on rallies [26][28]. - The PP and PE markets have a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term [29][31]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a relatively strong performance in price, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [32][35]. - The glass market is affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, and attention should be paid to possible logical conversions [35][37]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading and selling call options [37][40]. - The urea market is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation due to factors such as supply, demand, and export policies [40][42]. - The log market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [43][46]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [46]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [48][50]. - The pulp market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point on Tuesday [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point last Thursday [54][56]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets have a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high points, and the RU2509 - NR2509 spread can be considered for intervention [57][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $66.52, down $0.46/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.69%; Brent2509 contract settled at $68.71, down $0.50/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.72%. SC main contract 2509 fell 2.6 to 509.3 yuan/barrel, and at night it fell 3.7 to 505.6 yuan/barrel. The Brent main - to - next - month spread was $0.94/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: US June CPI rebounded to 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year. There are potential sanctions on Russia, and the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 19.1 million barrels in the week ending July 11, 2025 [1][2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The near - month spread of crude oil weakened, the short - term supply - demand contradiction was slightly weakened. The US CPI in June was still stubborn, the expectation of interest rate cuts was weakened, and the uncertainty of the macro - economic outlook increased. Potential sanctions on Russia may increase market disturbances [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility is weak, and pay attention to the support around $68.2 for Brent. Gasoline and diesel crack spreads are stable, and options are on hold [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3612 points at night (- 0.14%), BU2512 closed at 3433 points at night (- 0.17%). The spot price in Shandong on July 15 was 3550 - 4070 yuan/ton, and in the East China region it was 3670 - 3800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different regions were stable, with some price adjustments due to factors such as supply and demand and weather [3][4]. - **Logical Analysis**: Oil prices fell from a high level, the asphalt crack spread increased passively, the industrial chain profit was repaired, and the valuation was neutral - to - high. The supply and demand were weak in the short term, and both were expected to increase before the peak season at the end of the third quarter [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level fluctuations, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4106 at night (- 1.3%), PG2509 closed at 4016 at night (- 1.06%). The spot prices in different regions varied [5]. - **Related News**: The market trends in different regions were different, with fluctuations and adjustments [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply decreased last week, the international ship arrivals increased, the demand in the combustion and chemical fields was weak, and the inventories at ports and factories increased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly [8]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 34.445 (- 2.85%), HH closed at 3.521 (+ 1.64%), JKM closed at 12.3 (- 2.88%) [8]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased last week, the production increased, the demand was strong, and the LNG export volume increased, so the price was expected to rise. In Europe, the supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price fell [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For HH, buy on dips; for TTF, it is expected to oscillate [9]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 22873 at night (+ 0.21%), LU09 closed at 3642 at night (- 0.14%). The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads [10]. - **Related News**: Malaysia will implement regulations on illegal ship - to - ship crude oil transfers, and the sales volume of marine fuel oil in Singapore in the first half of 2025 decreased slightly [11]. - **Logical Analysis**: The high arrival of domestic high - sulfur spot hit the domestic high - sulfur price. The high - sulfur feed demand was expected to increase, and the low - sulfur supply increased with no specific demand driver [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [13]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2509 main contract closed at 6688 (- 90/- 1.33%) yesterday and 6712 (+ 24/+ 0.36%) at night. The spot price of PX decreased [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PX was still tight, the downstream demand was lack of support in the off - season, and it was expected to oscillate following the cost side [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA509 main contract closed at 4696 (- 44/- 0.93%) yesterday and 4702 (+ 6/+ 0.13%) at night. The spot basis was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PTA was expected to increase, the downstream demand was weak, and the processing fee was compressed [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4322 (- 35/- 0.80%) yesterday and 4301 (- 21/- 0.49%) at night. The spot basis was stable [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [17]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of ethylene glycol was expected to increase, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation in August - September, which would put pressure on the price [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2508 main contract closed at 6368 (- 68/- 1.06%) during the day and 6358 (- 10/- 0.16%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [18]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [18]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - fiber price followed the decline of polyester raw materials, the processing difference continued to expand, and the production and sales were average [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided, wait and see attitude implied [19]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: The PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 50/- 0.84%) yesterday and 5874 (+ 4/+ 0.07%) at night. The spot market trading atmosphere was average [19]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was slightly reduced [19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The raw material futures fell, the bottle - chip processing fee strengthened, and the production was reduced. It was expected to oscillate and sort out following the raw material end [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract closed at 6144 (- 45/- 0.73%) during the day and 6164 (+ 20/+ 0.33%) at night. The EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (- 138/- 1.85%) during the day and 7332 (- 8/- 0.11%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene and styrene changed [23]. - **Related News**: The styrene inventory in the East China main port increased, and some styrene devices were shut down for maintenance [23][24]. - **Logical Analysis**: The pure benzene price was expected to oscillate and sort out, and the styrene price was expected to show an oscillating trend due to supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot market was slightly weak, and the caustic soda spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased [27]. - **Logical Analysis**: The PVC supply and demand were weak, the inventory increased, and there was a risk of new device production. The caustic soda price had a peak - season expectation, but the upward drive was reduced [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, take profits on rallies for short - term long positions; for PVC, be bearish on the price in the medium and short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. PP and PE - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price was slightly weak, and the PP spot price in different regions decreased [29]. - **Related News**: The PP and PE maintenance ratios increased [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: There was a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand was weak, and the price was bearish in the medium and short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bearish on the price in the medium and short term, wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton (- 27/- 2.2%), and at night it closed at 1211 yuan (- 15/- 1.22%). The spot price in different regions changed [32]. - **Related News**: The domestic soda ash factory inventory increased, and some devices had maintenance or production plans [33]. - **Logical Analysis**: The soda ash supply decreased, the demand was weak, the inventory increased, and the profit decreased. The market expected the real - estate sector to adjust [33][34]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be relatively strong, wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1071 yuan/ton (- 31/- 2.81%), and at night it closed at 1069 yuan/ton (- 13/- 1.2%). The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [35]. - **Related News**: The glass market price was stable with some increases, and the deep - processing order days decreased [35][37]. - **Logical Analysis**: The glass price was affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, the supply decreased last week, and attention should be paid to production and sales in the short term and cost and cold - repair in the medium term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to possible logical conversions, wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2374 at night (- 18/- 0.75%). The spot price in different regions varied [37][38]. - **Related News**: The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in the Northwest increased [39]. - **Logical Analysis**: The international methanol device start - up rate increased, the import recovered, the domestic supply was loose, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fell to 1731 (- 33/- 1.87%). The spot price decreased slightly [40][41]. - **Related News**: The urea daily production increased, and the new Indian tender price was announced [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: The urea supply was large, the demand was weak, the inventory was high, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options on rallies [42][43]. Log - **Market Review**: The log spot market was stable with some price decreases. The 9 - month contract price rose slightly [43][44]. - **Related News**: The import volume of logs and sawn timber in June decreased, and the real - estate development data was not good [43]. - **Logical Analysis**: The downstream demand was weak, and the price support and trading volume needed to be considered. The scale difference supported the disk price [44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread, and wait and see for options [46]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The corrugated and box - board paper market was stable with some individual adjustments [46]. - **Related News**: The price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [46]. - **Logical Analysis**: The corrugated paper market was in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply and weak demand [46

市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 6月CPI同比0.1%、PPI同比-3.6%，CPI符合预期，PPI明显低于预期。 海外市场 美国公布新一轮关税函，对欧盟加墨巴西关税税率提升至30%-50%不等，对等关税谈判截止日延期至8 月1日。全周标普下跌0.3%，10年美债上行8BP。 权益市场 受房地产政策预期、反内卷等影响，上周万得全A延续前两周上涨趋势，地产、建材等板块领涨，银行 受短线筹码影响，周五大幅度冲高后回落，后续银行板块或转为震荡行情。具体而言，万得全A涨 1.71%，创业板指收涨2.36%，沪深300上涨0.82%。A股周度日均成交量小幅放量至接近1.5万亿水平， 较上周增长547.48亿元。截至2025年7月10日，全A融资余额18604.95 亿，较7月3日增加141.13亿，融资 余额连续4个交易日净增长。 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为2932亿、2318亿和1650亿，净融资额为1931 亿、1102亿和1590亿。非金信用债共计发行规模2775亿，净融资额958亿。可转债新券发行1只，预计融 资规模49亿元。 二级市场回顾 上周利率有所上行。主要影响因素包括：资金边际收 ...