Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The caustic soda market is currently under weak real - world pressure, but cost support is strong, and the market may show wide - range fluctuations [3]. - The current caustic soda futures are affected by the spot pressure of Shandong 32% caustic soda, and there are intertwined long - and short - term expectations that cannot be falsified in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - On September 29, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price was 2528, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was - 91 [1]. 2. Spot News - On September 26, the local liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable. With the approaching of the long holiday, most enterprises were eager to reduce inventory, and the short - term market was still weak [2]. 3. Market Condition Analysis - The spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is still under pressure, but the optimistic expectation brought by future alumina production cannot be falsified in the short term. The price of 50% caustic soda has risen due to regional arbitrage, and the inventory pressure of 50% caustic soda has been greatly relieved, limiting the further short - term decline of the spot price [3]. - The high - output and high - inventory pattern of alumina has compressed profits, and the marginal production capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there is a demand for 5.6 million tons of new capacity in Guangxi from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, the low - profit pattern may also lead to a decline in the inventory level of other alumina plants [3]. - Before the inventory - building starts, it is difficult to judge the gap caused by inventory - building, so the futures market is still trading the weak reality. The export situation has slightly improved compared with the previous period, and the Shandong - South China regional arbitrage also supports the 50% caustic soda market. The cost of caustic soda is strongly supported by the increase in Shandong's grid electricity price in October [3]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: In the fourth quarter, the downside space is limited. Although the current downstream demand is mainly based on rigid - need purchases, there may be procurement willingness after the National Day due to low prices. In the fourth quarter, there may be concentrated stocking behavior, and the spot liquidity may tighten [2]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, pay attention to cost support. Although the supply is in an over - capacity situation, exports have alleviated some pressure. The cost side provides bottom support, and the downside space during the peak season is limited [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the PXN has a compression expectation. The price will be under pressure due to weak cost - side support and weak supply - demand expectations [6]. - **PTA**: In the fourth quarter, it is difficult to have an independent market and may follow the cost side to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: In the fourth quarter, it is expected to enter a period of inventory accumulation as it enters the demand off - season [6]. Polyolefin Industry - **LLDPE and PP**: For LLDPE, the current maintenance is at a high point, and the inventory of the upper - middle reaches is being depleted. For PP, unplanned maintenance has increased due to losses, and the inventory has decreased. However, after the festival, there is a large inventory pressure, and the new capacity release limits the upside space [9]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol**: In the short term, it will continue the volatile pattern. The supply side has a game between the expected supply reduction and the relatively healthy inventory structure. The demand side is weak as the traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the new polyolefin device production expectations suppress the MTO demand [21]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price driving force is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the oil price trend and macro - market sentiment [25]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical and macro - news [26]. Fertilizer Industry - **Urea**: The futures price fluctuates downward. The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the export situation is uncertain [31]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil**: In the fourth quarter, the oil price will likely maintain a wide - range volatile pattern. Unilateral trading is recommended to use a band - trading strategy, and arbitrage is recommended to use a positive - spread strategy [33][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some products such as East China PVC by calcium carbide method decreased slightly, and the prices of some caustic soda products remained unchanged [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC were mostly stable, but the export profit of caustic soda decreased by 26.3%, and that of PVC increased by 323.8% [2]. - **Supply**: The overall PVC start - up rate increased by 0.9%, while the data of caustic soda start - up rate was not available [2]. - **Demand**: The start - up rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly, and the PVC pre - sales volume increased by 0.5% [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China factories and Shandong, and PVC upstream factories increased, while the total PVC social inventory remained unchanged [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, while the prices of some products such as CFR Japan naphtha decreased [6]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of CFR China PX and PX spot in RMB decreased [6]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA spot price in East China increased slightly, and the PTA futures price decreased [6]. - **MEG - Related Prices and Spreads**: The MEG spot price in East China decreased, and the MEG futures price also decreased [6]. Polyolefin Industry - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of L2601, PP2601 and other futures decreased slightly, and the price of East China PP raffia decreased by 0.3% [8][9]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the start - up rates of PE and PP devices increased [9]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased slightly, and the regional spreads changed [21]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, port and social inventories of methanol decreased [21]. - **Start - up Rates**: The start - up rate of upstream domestic enterprises increased, while the start - up rates of some downstream industries decreased [21]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 26, compared with September 25, the prices of some upstream products such as CFR China pure benzene decreased, and the import profit of pure benzene decreased [25]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of styrene in East China spot and futures decreased slightly [25]. - **Inventory and Start - up Rates**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased, while the styrene inventory increased. The start - up rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [25]. Fertilizer Industry - **Fertilizer Prices**: The prices of various fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and sulfur are provided on September 26 [28][29]. - **Urea Data**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea are presented. The daily output is high, and the demand is weak [31]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 29, compared with September 26, the prices of Brent, WTI and SC crude oil decreased, and the spreads changed [33]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD decreased, and the spreads also changed [33]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of some refined oil products such as US gasoline and diesel changed [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Nickel: The contradiction between pure nickel inventory accumulation and mine - end issues may increase medium - term volatility, and short - term prices may continue to oscillate within a range [4] - Stainless steel: Short - term supply - demand and cost factors are in play, steel prices will oscillate, and long - term buying at low prices has better cost - effectiveness [5] - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment has cooled significantly, and attention should be paid to the downward driving force of the market [27] - Polysilicon: Upstream inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to the policy implementation time [27] - Lithium carbonate: The increase in imported ore has slowed down the destocking of lithium carbonate, and prices will oscillate within a range [61] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel futures price closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,610 yuan/ton; the stainless steel futures price closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 90 yuan/ton [12] Fundamental Analysis - Nickel: Indonesian nickel mine issues have increased market concerns, while global refined nickel inventory has increased steeply. The supply of pure nickel is increasing while demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [4] - Stainless steel: Demand is suppressed by tariff pressure and weak real - estate consumption, while supply is expected to increase. The surplus has narrowed, but the upstream inventory is still high, and the steel price lacks upward momentum but has limited downside space [5] Inventory Changes - Refined nickel: Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased by 959 tons to 40,440 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 1,680 tons to 230,124 tons [7] - Nickel - stainless steel: SMM nickel - iron inventory decreased by 14% month - on - month to 28,652 tons, and stainless steel factory and social inventories showed different trends [7] Market News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period, and some nickel - iron smelting plants have suspended production due to losses. China has suspended a non - official subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia [8][9][11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - Industrial silicon: The futures price has fallen from a high, and the spot price has risen. The SMM - reported Xinjiang 99 - silicon price is 9,000 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton week - on - week) [27] - Polysilicon: The futures price first fell and then rose, and the spot price remained stable. The futures price closed at 52,700 yuan/ton on Friday [27] Fundamental Analysis - Industrial silicon: Supply: The weekly output decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. Demand: Downstream polysilicon and organic silicon support consumption, while the aluminum alloy and export markets are stable [28] - Polysilicon: Supply: The short - term weekly output remains high, and the upstream inventory is accumulating. Demand: The silicon wafer production is expected to decrease, and the next restocking may occur in mid - October [29][30] Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment will decline, and the price may test the cost line of Xinjiang small factories. It is recommended to short at high prices, with an expected price range of 8,500 - 9,100 yuan/ton next week [31][32] - Polysilicon: Policy expectations have cooled, and the market has returned to fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see, with an expected price range of 49,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton next week [32] Lithium Carbonate Market Conditions - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated within a range. The 2511 contract closed at 72,880 yuan/ton, down 1,080 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose 100 yuan/ton to 73,600 yuan/ton [61] Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The weekly output reached a new high of 20,516 tons, and the Australian ore shipment increased significantly [62] - Demand: The domestic energy - storage market has exceeded expectations, and the cathode materials are accumulating inventory [62] - Inventory: The weekly inventory decreased to 136,800 tons, and the destocking speed has slowed down for three consecutive weeks [62] Market Outlook - The price will oscillate within a range. It is expected that the futures price will be between 70,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended for arbitrage, and upstream factories are advised to increase hedging [63][64][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of alloys provides support, and their price trends are volatile. The high - level demand and rising cost of alloys this week offer some price support. However, due to the strong risk - aversion sentiment before the holiday and the game on the capital side, the price trends are volatile. Attention should be paid to the demand support from steel mills' production rhythm, and beware of intensified supply - demand contradictions and price declines if demand falls short of expectations [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Manganese silicon production has been slightly decreasing, with a weekly output of 20.64 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 tons (- 1.1%), and a weekly operating rate of 44.18%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week. Some regions show signs of production conversion, but new production plans create a strong bearish sentiment [18]. - **Demand**: Steel mills are conducting centralized steel tenders and pricing, and pre - holiday restocking has accelerated procurement. From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remains at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week is 90.86%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points from last week, and the average daily hot metal output is 242.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons. The overall demand for manganese silicon is weakly stable [23][24]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 26, the number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts is 56,113, a decrease of 4,563 week - on - week, with a converted inventory of 280,565 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 22,815 tons. - In September, the average available days of steel mills' manganese silicon inventory is 15.93 days (+ 0.95 days). - The inventory of 63 manganese silicon sample enterprises is 233,800 tons, an increase of 34,900 tons from a week ago [29][30][33]. - **Cost**: Overseas mining companies have raised their quotations, and the port inquiry atmosphere is active. The chemical coke quotation has increased, and the manganese ore port quotation is stable. The cost side supports the manganese silicon price [37][50]. 3.2 Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Ferrosilicon supply has been increasing, with a weekly output of 11.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 tons, and a weekly operating rate of 35.33%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points. Ningxia region's factories maintain high - load operation [54][55]. - **Demand**: - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remains at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week is 90.86%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points from last week, and the average daily hot metal output is 242.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons. - Non - steel demand: In August, the stainless - steel crude steel output was 290.28 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.87 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25%. The stainless - steel crude steel production plan for September is expected to increase by 4.4%. In August, the total output of magnesium metal was 6.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.58%. In August, the ferrosilicon export volume was 3.50 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [70]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 26, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises is 61,460 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,930 tons. - The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts is 17,373, a decrease of 255 week - on - week, with a converted inventory of 86,865 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 1,275 tons. - In September, the average available days of steel mills' ferrosilicon inventory is 15.52 days (+ 0.85 days) [71]. - **Cost**: The prices of semi - coke and oxidized iron scale have been rising, and the production cost in the north has increased month - on - month [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report expects PX, PTA, and PR to run strongly, with a view score of 1 for each [2] Core Viewpoints - International crude oil has risen to a seven - week high, and it is predicted that PX, PTA, and PR will run strongly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - On September 24, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $64.99 per barrel, up 2.49% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $69.31 per barrel, up 2.48% [1] - The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $606 per ton, up 1.42%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $672 per ton, up 2.05% [1] - The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $812 per ton, up 0.95%; the closing price of CZCE TA main contract was 4,626 yuan per ton, up 1.54% [1] - The CCFEI price index of PTA inner - market was 4,520 yuan per ton, up 1.16%; the outer - market was $600 per ton, down 1.48% [1] - The closing price of CZCE PX main contract was 6,602 yuan per ton, up 1.10%; the closing price of CZCE PR main contract was 5,784 yuan per ton, up 1.15% [1] - The CCFEI price index of polyester bottle - grade chips was 5,750 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,725 yuan per ton, up 0.26% [2] Supply and Demand and Market Conditions - An 700,000 - ton PX plant in Northeast China has been under maintenance since September 18, expected to last about 45 days [2] - Geopolitical risks have increased, and overnight crude oil rebounded after a short adjustment. The cost - end oil market rebounded slightly, driving up PX cost momentum. However, there are still concerns about the domestic PX fundamentals, and the monthly spread is small [2] - The increase in PX supply due to short - process capacity increase and postponed maintenance is obvious, while the demand for PX has decreased more than expected due to the delay of new PTA plant commissioning and multiple PTA maintenance. The PX profit will remain low in the short term [2] - The cost support for PTA has recovered slightly. The typhoon has affected the operation of a PTA plant in Zhuhai, which is temporarily beneficial to the PTA market. But the end - of - month shipment pressure of production enterprises is large, and the polyester product sales are flat [2] - The polyester bottle - chip market has a warm - oscillating trend in terms of raw materials and futures. The supply - side quotation has risen, but the downstream terminal trading has weakened, and the trading atmosphere is light. Some bottle - chip plants have shut down briefly due to the typhoon, with limited impact on market supply [2] Production and Sales and Operating Rates - On September 24, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 85.57%, unchanged; the PTA plant load rate was 78.12%, down 1.26 percentage points; the polyester plant load rate was 87.73%, down 1.27 percentage points [1] - The sales rate of polyester filament was 80.65%, up 41.74 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 67.04%, up 18.96 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 143.48%, up 85.45 percentage points [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Olefins: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - PX: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Bottle Chips: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - PTA: ★☆★ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Short Fibers: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Viewpoints - The market conditions of various chemical products are complex, with factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and downstream demand influencing their price trends. Each product has its own unique situation, including both short - term and long - term influencing factors [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Olefin futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly during the day. The market news was mixed, with supply - demand dynamics in play. Downstream factories were hesitant, and overall market trading was average [2] - Polyethylene had tight spot resources at the end of the month, with upstream suppliers holding firm on prices. Downstream factories had completed stocking, and market caution persisted. Supply - demand was weakly stable, and prices fluctuated within a range [2] - For polypropylene, international oil prices were strong recently, strengthening cost support. Supply - side device maintenance was high, downstream industry开工 increased, and some factories stocked up before the holiday. The market focused on reducing inventory through cautious price cuts [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The intraday price of unified benzene futures fluctuated around 5900 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China declined slightly, and trading volume in Shandong decreased. Overall operation slightly increased, processing margins oscillated at a low level, downstream industries stocked up before the holiday, and port inventories decreased. However, high import volumes and expected future demand decline limited the rebound of pure benzene [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly during the day. Jiangsu port inventories increased before the National Day, reaching a high level in the same period in the past five years. Downstream rigid demand was stable, but spot demand was weak. Pre - holiday stocking was lower than expected, hindering price increases [3] Polyester - PX's upward momentum weakened, and its valuation declined, releasing negative factors. Crude oil's rebound drove synchronous rebounds in PX and PTA. As the long holiday approached, positions on the futures market were continuously reduced. PTA's profitability improved slightly but remained poor. TA - PX spreads narrowed. The polyester filament market saw a significant increase in sales at the end of the day, fulfilling pre - holiday stocking expectations. However, future supply - demand remained under pressure [5] - Domestic ethylene glycol operation decreased slightly, and port inventories continued to decline. The supply pressure was not significant in reality, but supply - demand was expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread was under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations. Risks included low port inventories and uncertainties in the trial runs of two new devices [5] - Short - fiber new production capacity was limited, production was at a high level, and inventories decreased. The recovery of peak - season demand improved industry expectations. Pre - holiday downstream stocking benefits were realized, and long - short spreads should be exited at high levels [5] - A major bottle - chip device in South China stopped production due to seawater backflow caused by a typhoon, making the bottle - chip trend slightly stronger. Long - term over - capacity was a pressure, and the processing margin recovery space was limited. Attention should be paid to the restart schedule of the stopped device [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol imports were temporarily low, and the operation of coastal MTO devices increased. Some low - end imported goods flowed to the surrounding inland areas, resulting in port inventory reduction. Pre - holiday downstream stocking demand supported the market, but high port inventories and expected inventory accumulation limited the upward potential of the market. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of overseas device gas restrictions [6] - After a slight increase in urea prices, downstream follow - up was cautious. Agricultural demand was weak, and industrial compound fertilizer demand was insufficient. Daily production remained high, overall demand was less than supply, and enterprise inventories continued to accumulate. The oversupply situation persisted, and the export window was approaching its end. Attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC continued to have a high - supply and high - inventory pattern. This week's operation increased month - on - month, with new devices being tested and put into mass production, resulting in high supply pressure. Domestic downstream pre - holiday stocking intention was low, and foreign demand was weak. The industry continued to accumulate inventory. Chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and cost support was not obvious. PVC might show a weakening oscillating trend [7] - Caustic soda was in a situation of weak reality and strong expectations. The downstream demand for 32% caustic soda in Shandong was poor, and inventories continued to increase. Alumina plants had low unloading efficiency, and the enthusiasm of traders and downstream customers to receive goods decreased. Device maintenance and restart coexisted, operation fluctuated slightly, and supply continued to be under high pressure. Downstream profits shrank, and there was resistance to high prices. In the short term, Shandong downstream purchases reduced prices, showing a weak reality. However, there might be stocking demand before the future downstream alumina production, and the strong expectation could not be disproven. The futures price might oscillate [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was weak during the day. Recently, manufacturers reduced inventory, and supply was at a high level. The photovoltaic industry's fundamentals improved in August, with increased production capacity, driving up the demand for heavy soda ash. However, the photovoltaic industry had cooled down, and the expected increase in heavy soda ash demand was limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and opportunities to short at high levels should be sought, but caution was needed near the cost level [8] - Glass weakened during the day. Prices continued to rise today, and manufacturers' overall sales were good. The melting rate was oscillating at a relatively high level. Processing orders improved month - on - month but were still insufficient, and some project orders increased. The actual situation of whether Zhengkang coal - made gas would be centrally used in Shahe should be continuously monitored. In the short term, market sentiment was high, and with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's mention of glass production capacity control, the futures price was expected to oscillate strongly. In the long term, if production capacity reduction did not materialize, the market might return to a weak - reality trading pattern [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the ferrosilicon market is driven by stable demand and cost support, with a stable supply - demand balance and a trend of oscillating upward prices. In the long term, as production capacity is gradually released and the risk of overcapacity intensifies, the ferrosilicon market may face price adjustment pressure. Investors are advised to seize short - term market fluctuations and pay attention to the impact of power policies and raw material price changes on costs [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Background - Since the anti - involution sentiment swept the commodity market, the ferrosilicon price has shown an oscillating upward trend, and production in various regions has gradually recovered. From August to mid - September 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon remained at a historical high, and the operating rate was stable. The weekly output of Ningxia, a major production area, reached a new peak, and the spot price continued to rise. In mid - to late September, the research team conducted a survey on ferrosilicon production in Ningxia, focusing on key production enterprises and warehousing and logistics, to provide data support for industry decision - making and price analysis [8]. 3.2 Ferrosilicon Market Research Summary 3.2.1 Ferrosilicon: Stable Capacity Release in Major Production Areas and Tight In - Factory Inventory - Ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia and surrounding areas generally use large - capacity electric furnaces for off - peak production. The unit power consumption is 7500 - 8500 kWh/ton, and the electricity price is mostly 0.39 - 0.42 yuan/kWh. Most enterprises can reduce costs through waste heat power generation. September was the last month of power subsidies, with a standard subsidy of 0.011 yuan/kWh·month. In October, Ningxia entered the power spot trading month, and most manufacturers believed the trading results would offset the reduction in subsidies. Currently, not all furnaces in Ningxia are operating at full capacity. Some manufacturers are under maintenance, and some operate only 30% of their total capacity. The inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises is low, with 10 - 20 days of raw materials. Except for large enterprises, the finished product inventory is very low. The sales model in Ningxia is different from that in Inner Mongolia, with a large proportion supplied to futures - cash traders, mainly in a "production by order + trade supply" mode. Most ferrosilicon factories in Ningxia have production orders until early October, and some until the end of October. They purchase raw materials locally. There is no plan to add new production capacity for now, but if the futures price exceeds 6000 yuan/ton, some furnaces will resume operation [10]. 3.2.2 Cost Side: Rising Prices of Semi - coke and Electricity in September Support the Bottom of Ferrosilicon Prices - The production cost of ferrosilicon enterprises mainly consists of semi - coke, silica, and electricity, with electricity accounting for the largest proportion. The power cost in August and September increased compared to July but remained stable due to government subsidies. In October, with the end of subsidies and the start of power spot trading, the actual electricity price change is expected to be around 1 cent/kWh. In the short term, the marginal cost fluctuation is mainly in the semi - coke segment. During the research period, the ex - factory price of semi - coke in Fugu was 700 - 710 yuan/ton (plus freight of 110 - 140 yuan/ton). Some enterprises had cost advantages by stocking up at low prices. As of September 26, the price of small - sized semi - coke increased by about 50 yuan/ton, which may increase the ferrosilicon smelting cost by 60 yuan/ton. The silica price at the factory is mostly between 160 - 240 yuan/ton. The comprehensive power consumption is generally 8000 kWh/ton, and the electricity price is mostly 0.41 - 0.42 yuan/kWh. Some enterprises can reduce costs through waste heat power generation and power spot trading. The total cost of labor and depreciation is about 450 - 500 yuan/ton. The full cost in Ningxia during the research period was concentrated in the range of 5200 - 5650 yuan/ton. With the current offer of 5800 yuan/ton from HBIS, the profit margin is still tight, and the cost side may continue to support the bottom of ferrosilicon prices [11][13]. 3.2.3 Supply Side: High Elasticity of Capacity Release and Continuous Order Placement - The total designed annual production capacity of the seven surveyed ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia exceeds 1.4 million tons. The furnace types are mainly medium - and large - sized submerged arc furnaces of 33000KVA - 45000KVA, producing both common ferrosilicon and 75 ferrosilicon, with some focusing on low - aluminum and low - titanium ferrosilicon. Driven by profits, some manufacturers said the profit of producing 75 ferrosilicon is relatively high. If the futures price fluctuates slightly, future production will focus on 75 ferrosilicon. If the price exceeds 6000 yuan/ton, the idle capacity will fully produce common ferrosilicon, increasing supply pressure. Currently, the actual operating rate of most enterprises is lower than the designed full - production level, affected by market prices, power costs, and off - peak policies. The monthly output of the seven enterprises is about 85,000 tons, with an overall operating rate of about 73%, accounting for about 40% of the total output in Ningxia. The downstream orders are stable, and the production orders extend from September to November. Some enterprises have expanded overseas markets through exports. Overall, the production model of enterprises in Ningxia and surrounding areas is "production by order + low inventory", ensuring stable supply without increasing inventory. The supply side features large capacity, high elasticity of release, and continuous order placement, and can stably meet market demand in the short term [15][16]. 3.2.4 Detailed Research Minutes - **Ningxia A Enterprise**: Main products are common silicon and high - silicon. It has 8 furnaces of 40500KVA and 2 of 16500KVA, with an annual full - production capacity of 350,000 tons. Currently, 4 furnaces are operating, and 6 are shut down. Production orders are until the end of September. The raw material inventory is about one month, and it purchases raw materials every half - month. The sales model is mainly futures - cash trading, with an average monthly volume of 4000 tons and long - term contracts of about 2000 tons. The full production cost is 5500 - 5650 yuan/ton [18]. - **Ningxia B Enterprise**: Mainly produces low - aluminum, low - titanium, high - silicon ferrosilicon (70% of capacity) and 75 ferrosilicon. It has 2 furnaces of 40500KVA and 1 of 20000KVA, with an annual full - production capacity of 100,000 tons. Currently, 1 furnace of 40500KVA and 1 of 20000KVA are operating, with a full - production capacity of 160 - 170 tons/day and an off - peak production capacity of 130 - 140 tons/day. There is no inventory in the factory, and it produces by order, ensuring a monthly output of 3000 tons. Current production orders are nearly 25 days. The sales model is mainly long - term contracts, supplying low - aluminum, low - titanium ferrosilicon to steel mills such as HBIS at an average monthly volume of 300 - 400 tons, with a price of the HBIS common ferrosilicon tender price plus 900 yuan/ton. It also exports to countries such as Japan and Turkey through the supply chain platform. 75 ferrosilicon is sold to magnesium enterprises for magnesium ingot production. The full production cost of common ferrosilicon is 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton [19]. - **Ningxia C Enterprise**: Mainly produces common ferrosilicon (adjusts production of 75 ferrosilicon as needed). It has 6 furnaces of 35000KVA, with an annual full - production capacity of 220,000 tons. Currently, all 6 furnaces are operating without off - peak production, with an average electricity cost of 0.41 - 0.419 yuan/kWh and a monthly output of 18,000 tons. Production orders are until November. If the futures price rises to 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton, it will hedge at most one - month's order volume. The sales model is mainly order - based production, with a maximum monthly order volume of 15,000 tons. It currently sells some silicon powder at a price about 600 yuan/ton lower than that of common ferrosilicon [20]. - **Ningxia D Enterprise**: Mainly produces common ferrosilicon. Currently, it operates 1 furnace of 33000KVA and 1 of 45000KVA (alternating for off - peak production), with an annual full - production capacity of 80,000 tons and a current monthly output of 6000 tons. Production orders are until the end of October. The raw material inventory is 10 - 15 days. It requires 50 - 60% advance payment for sales. The comprehensive power consumption is 8000 kWh/ton, and the current electricity cost is 0.41 yuan/kWh. During the spot trading month, it can reach 0.38 yuan/kWh. Waste heat power generation can save 200 - 300 yuan/ton in costs [21]. - **Ningxia E Enterprise**: With an annual full - production capacity of 100,000 tons, it mainly produces 75 ferrosilicon recently. It has 2 furnaces of 33000KVA and 1 of 25000KVA. Currently, 1 furnace of 33000KVA and 1 of 25000KVA are operating, with the 25000KVA furnace producing 72 ferrosilicon, and a monthly output of 5000 tons. Production orders are until the end of September, and there is currently 700 - 800 tons of inventory. It has a large inventory of low - price semi - coke. The comprehensive power consumption of 72 is 7800 kWh/ton, and the electricity cost is 0.417 - 0.42 yuan/kWh. The comprehensive power consumption of 75 is 8100 kWh/ton, and the full production cost is 5580 - 5600 yuan/ton [21]. - **Ningxia F Enterprise**: With an annual full - production capacity of 80,000 tons, it mainly produces 75 ferrosilicon. It has 2 furnaces of 33000KVA, and currently 1 is operating. The second furnace is expected to start next month. The sales model is mainly long - term contracts, with a limited - volume and fixed - price monthly supply of 1500 tons. The comprehensive power consumption of 75 ferrosilicon is 8000 kWh/ton [22]. - **Ningxia G Enterprise**: With an annual full - production capacity of 450,000 tons, it mainly produces common ferrosilicon. It has 8 furnaces of 45000KVA and mainly controls raw material and spot inventory. Its in - factory inventory is relatively sufficient compared to others [22]. 3.3 Ferrosilicon Market Expectation: Short - Term Oscillation Upward, Long - Term Overcapacity Warning - The surveyed enterprises generally believe that the main contract of ferrosilicon may be affected by the coking coal market and anti - involution funds, with the futures price oscillating upward, driving up the price of semi - coke and increasing the cost of ferrosilicon. There is a growing call for eliminating backward production capacity, and small - sized furnaces in Qinghai and Inner Mongolia may accelerate the capacity replacement process. However, after the market sentiment stabilizes, high supply and inventory may suppress the futures price. Two points should be continuously monitored: (1) The change in the hot metal output on the steel - making demand side. If the demand in the fourth - quarter peak season remains high and the hot metal output stays at a high level, the ferrosilicon inventory can support consumption. (2) The change in the demand for magnesium. Historically, the supply of magnesium increases in the fourth quarter, supporting the demand for ferrosilicon. Currently, low - price magnesium is scarce. The profit of producing 75 ferrosilicon is much higher than that of 72. If the supply of magnesium recovers, some manufacturers may switch to producing 75 ferrosilicon. If the demand for magnesium is lower than expected, the high supply and inventory of 72 ferrosilicon may compress profits and force enterprises to shut down and reduce production [23].

Core Viewpoints - Aluminum oxide futures are experiencing downward pressure due to high operational capacity and accumulating inventories, leading to a supply surplus [1][2] - The market is expected to maintain low-level fluctuations influenced by weak demand and high supply [1][2] - Short-term strategies suggest a wait-and-see approach, monitoring macroeconomic sentiments and supply-side policies [2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The operational capacity for aluminum oxide is at a historical high, nearing 98 million tons per year, contributing to a clear supply surplus [1] - Social and factory inventories are continuously accumulating, indicating a persistent oversupply situation [1] - Downstream electrolytic aluminum plants are maintaining high operating rates due to strong profits, but overall demand is underperforming expectations [1] Group 2: Price Outlook - The price of aluminum oxide is currently reported at 2922.0 yuan, with a slight decline of 0.17% [1] - Future price movements may be constrained by cost support, limiting the extent of potential declines [1] - The market is likely to remain under pressure from inventory accumulation, supply expansion, and weak demand, with potential price stabilization if production cuts are triggered by cost line breaches [1][2] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Companies are advised to adopt a cautious stance in the short term, awaiting further developments in macroeconomic conditions and supply-side policies [2] - The reference operational range for the main contract AO2601 is suggested to be between 2800-3100 yuan per ton [2] - Continuous monitoring of geopolitical events, particularly in Guinea, and U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy is recommended as they may impact market dynamics [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: Steel market is oscillating without a clear single - side direction. Although the Steel Union data improved on Thursday with a short - term continuation of the structure of both supply and demand rising, there are still pressures such as high inventory and insufficient de - stocking slope. Suggest to wait and see or conduct range trading, and consider taking profit on basis long positions before National Day according to spot exposure [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are still concerns in the fundamentals. The industry has turned from losses to profits, supply is increasing, and terminal demand verification is pending. There is a risk of a decline in iron - water and electric - furnace start - up, and high inventory needs to be de - stocked [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The first round of coke price increase has started comprehensively, and coking coal spot prices continue to strengthen. The market is concerned about pre - holiday furnace material replenishment, but due to limited terminal demand improvement, the upward drive is limited. It is recommended to gradually close long positions before the holiday and use selling hedging if prices rise again [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: There are continuous disturbances from bullish rumors. Support exists before the holiday, but the upside depends on steel demand. It is advisable to wait and see for now, and maintain the long - term view of buying on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes on September 25**: - **Rebar (RB)**: RB2605 closed at 3225 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.25%; RB2601 (near - month contract) closed at 3167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.32% [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil (HC)**: HC2605 closed at 3366 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%; HC2601 closed at 3358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24% [1]. - **Other Contracts**: I2605 closed at 785.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.51%; J2605 closed at 1900 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan or 1.63%; JM2605 closed at 1328 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.91%. For near - month contracts, I2601, J2601, and JM2601 also had corresponding price changes [1]. - **Spread and Ratio**: - **Cross - month Spread**: RB2601 - 2605 was - 58 yuan/ton on September 25, with a change of 5 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 8 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - **Other Spreads and Ratios**: The coil - rebar spread was 191 yuan/ton, the rebar - ore ratio was 3.93, the coal - coke ratio was 1.43, the rebar disk profit was - 99.83 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 118.12 yuan/ton on September 25, with corresponding changes [1]. Spot Market - **Prices on September 25**: - **Rebar**: Shanghai rebar was 3300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3210 yuan/ton with no change; Guangzhou rebar was 3330 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3420 yuan/ton, Hangzhou was 3430 yuan/ton, and Guangzhou was 3390 yuan/ton, all with no change [1]. - **Other Spot Goods**: Tangshan billet was 3030 yuan/ton with no change; the Platts Index was 106.1, up 0.4; various iron ore and coking coal spot prices also had specific values and changes [1]. - **Basis**: - On September 25, the basis of HC was 62 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the basis of RB was 133 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the basis of I was 26 yuan/ton with no change; the basis of J was - 187.37 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of JM was 80.5 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner in the short - term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On September 25, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $64.98 per barrel, down 0.02% from the previous value; Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $69.42 per barrel, up 0.16%. Naphtha spot price (CFR Japan) was $608.50 per ton, up 0.41%. The spot price of isomeric xylene (FOB South Korea) was $676.00 per ton, up 0.52%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $817.00 per ton, up 0.57% [1] - **PTA**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,678 yuan per ton, up 1.12%; the settlement price was 4,658 yuan per ton, up 1.30%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 4,640 yuan per ton, up 1.18%; the settlement price was 4,630 yuan per ton, up 1.58%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,597 yuan per ton, up 0.81%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,585 yuan per ton, up 1.44%; the external price index was $609.00 per ton, up 1.50% [1] - **PX**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,674 yuan per ton, up 1.09%; the settlement price was 6,640 yuan per ton, up 1.10%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,678 yuan per ton, up 0.69%; the settlement price was 6,470 yuan per ton, down 2.03%. The domestic PX spot price remained unchanged at 6,382 yuan per ton. The spot price (CFR China Taiwan) was $813.00 per ton, up 1.12%; the spot price (FOB South Korea) was $796.00 per ton, up 1.02%. The PXN spread was $208.50 per ton, up 1.05%; the PX - MX spread was $141.00 per ton, up 0.84% [1] - **PR**: On September 25, 2025, the closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,840 yuan per ton, up 0.97%; the settlement price was 5,816 yuan per ton, up 1.04%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,874 yuan per ton, up 1.31%; the settlement price was 5,856 yuan per ton, up 1.00%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70%; in the South China market, it was 5,870 yuan per ton, up 0.69% [1] - **Downstream**: On September 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,475 yuan per ton, down 0.59%; the price index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 1.44%; the price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,425 yuan per ton, up 0.23%; the price index of polyester chips was 5,755 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,790 yuan per ton, up 0.70% [2] Device Information - A 7 - million - ton PX plant in the Northeast has been under maintenance since September 18, with an expected maintenance period of about 45 days [2] Market Analysis - **PX**: Geopolitical and sanctions around Russia are the main factors driving international crude oil prices. The expected pressure of supply glut has not been reflected in the market, and oil prices were stagnant during the Asian session. The CFR China price of PX on September 25 was $817 per ton, and international oil prices continued to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories. The domestic PX operating load was stable, and the demand side was waiting for the implementation of the expected changes in PTA plants. The cost support led to a slight price recovery. The PX2511 contract closed at 6,674 yuan per ton (up 1.61%), with a trading volume of 185,500 lots. The increase in PX supply due to the increase in short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of some plant maintenance was obvious, while the demand for PX decreased more than expected due to the delay of new PTA plant commissioning and multiple PTA plant maintenance. The supply - demand situation did not change significantly, and the PX profit would remain low in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The cost support slightly recovered, and the TA2601 contract closed at 4,678 yuan per ton (up 1.74%), with a trading volume of 701,000 lots. The sales of polyester filament on Wednesday evening were around 149% and 175% on Thursday, which was positive for the PTA market. The cost support was strengthened, and there was a strong expectation of PTA plant maintenance due to low processing fees. The leading polyester factories adjusted the production rhythm to stabilize market supply, but the production enterprises faced great pressure to sell at the end of the month. The new orders of weaving enterprises improved, and the shipment speed of grey cloth continued to improve, but the overall inventory pressure in the grey cloth market still existed, leading to the lack of confidence of downstream enterprises in the future market. As the National Day holiday approached, the sentiment in the downstream market was clearly divided, and some enterprises expected the market to improve after the holiday [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang market was 5,800 - 5,900 yuan per ton, up 55 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The prices of PTA and bottle - chip futures rose, and the supply - side quotation of bottle chips mainly increased, but the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream terminals was not high, and the trading atmosphere was light. The PR2511 contract closed at 5,840 yuan per ton (up 1.46%), with a trading volume of 28,600 lots. The operating rate of the bottle - chip industry was expected to gradually recover, and the market supply of goods was relatively abundant. The purchasing intention of downstream terminals was not high, and the market trading atmosphere was light [2] Production and Sales and Operating Conditions - **Operating Conditions**: On September 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 85.57%, unchanged from the previous value; the load rate of PTA plants in the PTA industry chain was 78.12%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester plants was 87.81%, up 0.08 percentage points; the load rate of bottle - chip plants was 69.37%, up 0.27 percentage points; the load rate of Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms was 69.19%, up 1.64 percentage points [1] - **Production and Sales**: On September 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 175.16%, up 94.51 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 88.58%, up 21.54 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 152.51%, up 9.03 percentage points [1]