Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price recovered from its low, with a daily increase of 0.32%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Before the holiday, rebar demand is rising while production remains stable, and the supply - demand situation has improved slightly. However, downstream performance is still sluggish, and the fundamentals are unlikely to improve substantially. The upward momentum is weak, but cost support is a positive factor. It is expected that rebar prices will continue to fluctuate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in open interest [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.24%, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. Currently, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are weak due to the situation of weak supply and demand, and the high - supply pressure persists, putting pressure on prices. The positive factor is the rising cost. It is expected to continue to fluctuate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to demand performance [6]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.25%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, ore demand is decent, supporting the ore price. However, demand is expected to weaken, while supply is rising, and the supply - demand situation is expected to deteriorate. The high - valued ore price has limited upward momentum, and it will continue to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday. Attention should be paid to changes in open interest [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - The OECD raised the global growth forecast for this year to 3.2% from 2.9% in June, but warned of tariff and inflation risks. The forecast for 2026 remains at 2.9%, both lower than the 3.3% growth rate in 2024. Global exports to the US face a maximum tariff rate of 50%, and some countries are negotiating new trade frameworks [8]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development announced that in 2025, the plan is to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to August, 21,700 such projects have started. Regions like Hebei, Liaoning, and others have completed all planned projects [9]. - South Korea imposed temporary anti - dumping duties on carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils from China and Japan on September 23, 2025. The duty rate for Chinese exporters is 33.10%, and for Japanese exporters, it ranges from 31.58% to 33.57%. The measure is valid for four months until January 22, 2026, with some product exclusions [10]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,260, 3,230, and 3,306 respectively. For hot - rolled coils (Shanghai, 4.75mm), the prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average are 3,400, 3,330, and 3,439 respectively. The price of Tangshan billet (Q235) is 3,030, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) is 2,160. The coil - rebar price difference is 140, and the rebar - scrap price difference is 1,100 [11]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 796, and Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) is 798. The ocean freight from Australia is 10.82 and from Brazil is 25.21. The SGX swap (current month) is 105.70, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) is 106.50 [11]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Increase (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,167 | 0.32 | 3,175 | 3,152 | 883,015 | - 322,137 | 1,870,449 | - 11,775 | | Hot - rolled coil | - | 3,358 | 0.24 | 3,362 | 3,343 | 337,428 | - 130,346 | 1,369,716 | 1,955 | | Iron ore | - | 805.5 | 0.25 | 808.0 | 799.5 | 191,183 | - 11,238 | 529,740 | - 9,319 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventories (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories), iron ore inventories (including 45 - port and 247 - steel mill inventories), and steel mill production (including blast furnace operating rates, electric furnace operating rates, and steel mill profitability) [15][20][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally. Rebar production increased slightly week - on - week, but due to poor profitability, the short - term production increase momentum is weak. Demand has improved, but high - frequency trading is weak, and both supply and demand are at low levels compared to previous years. Before the holiday, demand is rising, supply is stable, but downstream performance is still sluggish. The fundamentals are unlikely to improve substantially, and the upward momentum is weak. Cost support is a positive factor. It is expected to continue to fluctuate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in open interest [39]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand situation remains weak, with increasing inventories. Production decreased slightly week - on - week, and the supply pressure is still high. Demand is losing its resilience, with a slight week - on - week decline in apparent demand and a drop in high - frequency trading. Although the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products has increased significantly, industrial contradictions persist, and external demand improvement is limited. The positive factor is the rising cost. It is expected to continue to fluctuate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to demand performance [40]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand situation has changed. Steel mill production is stable, and ore consumption has continued to rise, with daily pig iron production and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills increasing slightly week - on - week. Pre - holiday restocking has supported the ore price. However, steel market contradictions are accumulating, and steel profits are shrinking, so demand resilience will weaken. At the same time, port arrivals in China have increased significantly, overseas shipments have decreased slightly but remain at a relatively high level, and domestic ore supply has recovered, increasing supply pressure. It is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in open interest [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical sector may continue to rebound in the short - term due to geopolitical disturbances. Many chemical products are at a difficult stage, with compressed valuations and heavy profit pressures on chemical enterprises in the fourth quarter. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical concerns and supply pressures, showing an overall trend of weakening oscillations. Each sub - sector has different performances and trends, mainly affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Energy and chemical products may continue to be affected by geopolitical disturbances in the short - term and continue to rebound. Many chemical products are approaching their darkest moments, with compressed valuations. The days of chemical enterprises in the fourth quarter will still be difficult [1][2] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical concerns resurface, and supply pressure persists. - **Main Logic**: The EU plans to impose tariffs on Russian oil, and Ukrainian drones attack Russian energy facilities. EIA data shows a slight decline in US crude oil and refined oil inventories last week. In the context of OPEC+ accelerating production increases, crude oil faces the dual pressures of refinery start - up peaking and falling and OPEC+ accelerating production increases. Geopolitical factors dominate the fluctuation of geopolitical premiums. - **Outlook**: Consider oil prices to be in a weakening oscillation, and pay attention to short - term geopolitical disturbances [7] 3.2.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt - fuel oil price difference is rapidly declining. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, causing oil prices to rise sharply while asphalt futures prices increase slightly, compressing profits. The asphalt - fuel oil price difference is rapidly falling, and the planned asphalt production in October increases by 19% year - on - year. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [8] 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Geopolitical disturbances drive a sharp increase in fuel oil futures prices. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, causing fuel oil futures prices to rise sharply. Geopolitical disturbances may cause the expected Russian fuel oil exports to decline significantly. With the increase in refinery start - up, the demand for fuel oil processing is gradually increasing, but the demand for gasoline in the US is weak, and the demand for residue processing is sluggish. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical escalation will only cause short - term price disturbances. Pay attention to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [9] 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, but the resistance level of 3500 is temporarily effective. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Fundamentally, the reduction of domestic refined oil export tax rebates and the cancellation of UCO export tax rebates increase the supply pressure of domestic refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is subject to green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it fluctuates with crude oil [10] 3.2.5 Methanol - **View**: The port inventory has decreased, and methanol futures prices fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, methanol futures prices fluctuated. The shipping price in northern Ordos, Inner Mongolia increased slightly, mainly supported by the start - up of olefin plants, transportation restrictions, and pre - holiday stockpiling. The port inventory decreased, but there is still a large pressure on the near - month port inventory, and there is a contradiction between the near and far months. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, there may still be opportunities to go long at low levels from September to October. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [23] 3.2.6 Urea - **View**: The pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change. After the futures prices have been under long - term pressure along the cost line, they rebound briefly. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the daily production and start - up rate of the supply side remained at a high level, and there was insufficient support on the demand side, but the export expectation improved due to policy and macro news, causing the futures prices to rebound briefly. - **Outlook**: The fundamental supply - demand situation remains loose. If the policies such as export windows and batches and changes in Indian tenders are true, they may bring considerable benefits, but currently be vigilant about unimplemented information. Urea is expected to oscillate and sort out, waiting for other positive factors [24] 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: The shipment performance is average, and it fluctuates with cost and sentiment. - **Main Logic**: Before the festival, the overall shipment performance was average, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol was rising from a low level. The increase in oil prices during the day slightly repaired the commodity sentiment, and ethylene glycol stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, there are limited variables, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the National Day. The supply - demand situation is in a marginally weakening pattern, and the price mostly fluctuates with cost and sentiment, with a limited rebound height at a low level. - **Outlook**: The short - term price stops falling slightly, but the rebound height is limited. Operate within a range [18][19] 3.2.8 PX - **View**: Cost supports the price, but the supply - demand side is relatively under pressure, and profits are compressed. - **Main Logic**: The rebound of crude oil prices drives the increase of naphtha prices, strengthening cost support. Driven by sentiment, the sales of polyester products increase, further supporting the increase of PTA prices. There are frequent rumors of device disturbances in the market, increasing sentiment - side disturbances. Before specific device changes, the overall supply - demand pattern remains in a weakly oscillating pattern, and PX profits are still under pressure in the short term. - **Outlook**: The marginal weakening of supply - demand and cost support compete, and it oscillates in the short term [12] 3.2.9 PTA - **View**: The basis continues to weaken, and the willingness to hold goods is low. - **Main Logic**: The futures prices rebound following the cost side. Some polyester filament manufacturers have different mentalities, and some offer promotions, leading to an increase in the sales of polyester filaments. However, the spot basis still runs weakly, and the number of warehouse receipts increases sharply. It is expected that the basis will still be under pressure in the short term. Although there is a certain reduction in supply, the strong willingness of mainstream manufacturers to ship goods limits the overall repair of processing fees. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate under the game between its own supply - demand and cost. - **Outlook**: Oscillate following the cost, and pay attention to the TA01 - 05 reverse arbitrage [13][14] 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The sentiment of the upstream to stop falling has improved slightly, and the downstream demand has improved slightly. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials stop falling and rebound, and short - fiber prices follow the increase. The downstream demand has improved slightly, and the downstream stockpiling behavior has improved slightly with the improvement of upstream sentiment. However, the sustainability of the overall situation is still worthy of attention. - **Outlook**: The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with the raw materials, and it oscillates in the short - term at the bottom [20][21] 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: Typhoons in South China affect the operation of plants. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw material futures rise slightly, and polyester bottle - chip factories follow the increase. The cost has a certain supporting effect. It is expected that the price will still fluctuate following the upstream in the short term. - **Outlook**: Oscillate, and the absolute value fluctuates with the raw materials [21][22] 3.2.12 PP - **View**: The chemical sentiment turns slightly warmer, and PP should pay attention to the support strength of the previous low. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the PP main contract rebounded slightly. Oil prices oscillate, and geopolitical concerns dominated by the Russia - Ukraine situation still have a fermenting trend, supporting the bottom of the range. The downstream trading volume still increases after the short - term decline of PP futures prices. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" and the double festivals of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, although the downstream start - up improvement is still slow, considering the current low absolute price, there is still some willingness of downstream manufacturers to replenish stocks. However, the PP supply side is still under pressure, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches still exists. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [27][28] 3.2.13 Propylene (PL) - **View**: Fluctuate following PP, and PL oscillates and falls in the short term. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the PL main contract oscillated and fell. The mentality in the market was slightly boosted, and the willingness to continue to offer discounts was not strong, but the market still had a bearish expectation for the future, so the operation was cautious. The price fluctuated, and the downstream maintained rigid demand for replenishment, with general overall trading. The PP - PL price difference oscillated around 500, and the volatility of PL may increase marginally compared with before. - **Outlook**: PL oscillates weakly in the short term [28] 3.2.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and downstream manufacturers still have stockpiling demand before the festival, so plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the plastic main contract rebounded slightly. Oil prices rebound, and geopolitical concerns dominated by the Russia - Ukraine situation still have a fermenting trend, supporting the bottom of the range. The downstream trading volume still increases after the short - term decline of plastic futures prices. Entering the "Golden September and Silver October", although the downstream start - up improvement is still slow, considering the current low absolute price and the fact that downstream manufacturers still have some willingness to replenish stocks before the double festivals of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the demand may still have a certain support. However, the plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure, the daily production is still at a high level, and the inventory is gradually decreasing from a high level, and the supply side still has a certain pressure. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited support, and it oscillates in the short term [26] 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - **View**: The disturbances of crude oil and anti - involution reappear, and pure benzene rebounds. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the inventory in East China ports decreased. Near the double festivals, downstream industries had a certain demand for replenishment. The news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance boosted the sentiment of pure benzene and styrene. The expectation of consumption stimulus policies also made the futures market stronger. Later, with the realization of the interest rate cut benefit, as well as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. According to the current maintenance and production - start plans of pure benzene, it will be difficult to reduce the inventory before the end of the year, and the import pressure in October is relatively large, with the most obvious inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: If the styrene maintenance is implemented from September to October, the supply of pure benzene will exceed the demand again, and the inventory will accumulate [14][15] 3.2.16 Styrene - **View**: The disturbances of crude oil, anti - involution, and plants reappear, and styrene rebounds after a decline. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance boosted the sentiment of styrene. The expectation of consumption stimulus policies also made the futures market stronger. Later, with the realization of the interest rate cut benefit, as well as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the styrene price declined. The current contradiction of styrene is that the high inventory of upstream and downstream industries is difficult to reduce. Although styrene is in a de - stocking pattern from September to October, it has limited effect on the current high inventory, and it will return to the end - of - year inventory - accumulation cycle from November to December, with insufficient positive support. In addition, the increase of pure benzene imports in the far - month also drags down the styrene price. - **Outlook**: The profit has reached a low level. You can try to widen the styrene profit. The idea of short - selling on rebounds remains unchanged [17] 3.2.17 PVC - **View**: The market sentiment warms up, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is yet to be implemented, and overseas countries have entered an interest - rate cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost increase slows down. Specifically, the autumn maintenance of upstream plants increases in mid - September, reducing PVC production; the downstream start - up rate improves month - on - month, and the low - price procurement volume increases; the PVC order - signing situation improves this week; the impact of power rationing on the start - up of calcium carbide plants is short - term, and the pre - festival stockpiling of PVC enterprises is coming to an end, so the increase of calcium carbide prices may slow down; supported by the stockpiling of alumina, the caustic soda spot price stabilizes, and the static cost of PVC increases to 5280 yuan/ton, and the dynamic cost may remain stable. - **Outlook**: PVC oscillates. The pressure comes from the long - term weakening of fundamentals, and the support comes from the increase of dynamic cost and the warming of market sentiment [30] 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures market oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is yet to be implemented, and overseas countries have entered an interest - rate cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the caustic soda fundamentals still have pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The pressure is manifested in the high receiving volume of caustic soda by Weiqiao and the reduction of the receiving price; the non - aluminum start - up rate remains stable, and the pre - festival stockpiling enthusiasm is average; the maintenance in October decreases, and the caustic soda production will increase. The support comes from the strong expectation of stockpiling caustic soda for the production of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026, and the stable rebound of the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong. - **Outlook**: Oscillate in the long - term. The spot price stabilizes weakly before the festival, and the futures market may still rebound due to the strong expectation of stockpiling for alumina production in Q4 [31] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Provides the latest values and changes of cross - period spreads for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [32] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Lists the basis, changes, and warehouse receipt numbers of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [33] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Presents the latest values and changes of cross - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [34] 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the provided content, only lists the names of varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [35][48][60] 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities increased by 0.56% on September 24, 2025. - **Characteristic Index**: The commodity 20 index increased by 0.54%, the industrial products index increased by 0.72%, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.35%. - **Sector Index**: The energy index increased by 1.93% on September 24, 2025, decreased by 1.22% in the past 5 days, increased by 0.37% in the past month, and decreased by 2.06% since the beginning of the year [277][278]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel market is oscillating with unclear unilateral direction. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading, and the positions for phased basis buying hedging can be rolled for profit - taking [3]. - The sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, but there are still concerns in the fundamentals. Industrial customers are advised to focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage [3]. - The coking coal spot is strong. It is suggested that the long - side open positions be gradually liquidated before the holiday, and sell - hedging should be carried out when the price rises again [3]. - There are still supports for iron ore before the holiday. A long - at - low strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts (September 24th)**: RB2605 closed at 3227.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan (0.22%); HC2605 at 3365.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan (0.21%); I2605 at 783.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan (0.26%); J2605 at 1871.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan (1.30%); JM2605 at 1312.00 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan (0.85%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (September 24th)**: RB2601 closed at 3164.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan (0.03%); HC2601 at 3357.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan (0.24%); I2601 at 803.50 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 at 1730.00 yuan/ton, up 19.50 yuan (1.14%); JM2601 at 1224.50 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan (1.24%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios (September 24th)**: The spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 63.00 yuan/ton; the spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was - 8.00 yuan/ton; the spread between I2601 and I2605 was 20.50 yuan/ton; the spread between J2601 and J2605 was - 141.00 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2601 and JM2605 was - 87.50 yuan/ton. The coil - to - rebar spread was 193.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.94, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.41, the rebar futures profit was - 84.53 yuan/ton, and the coking futures profit was 101.42 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products (September 24th)**: Shanghai rebar was 3290.00 yuan/ton, up 12.40 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 3030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Platts Index was 106.50, up 0.30. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3420.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3430.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3390.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 260.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 792.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan [1]. - **Other Products (September 24th)**: The price of Super Special Powder was 710.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the price of mixed powder at Qingdao Port was 745.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1285.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan [1]. - **Basis (September 24th)**: The basis of HC was 63.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan; the basis of RB was 126.00 yuan/ton, up 31.00 yuan; the basis of I was 26.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of J was - 157.37 yuan/ton, down 12.50 yuan; the basis of JM was 90.50 yuan/ton, up 48.00 yuan [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Steel**: The futures price was stable on Wednesday, and the spot price slightly stabilized. The trading volume increased moderately compared with Tuesday. The data from Steel Valley Network showed that both supply and demand increased, but the inventory did not decline significantly, indicating that the peak - season demand was not strong. The macro - level US interest rate cut is beneficial to liquidity and risk appetite in the medium - term, but there is no obvious expected trading in the short - term. The peak - season demand for steel is not strong, and the improvement in the apparent demand for building materials is not significant, which cannot drive a strong rebound. The cost support exists due to high pig iron production and pre - National Day furnace charge replenishment, but the high production of building materials increases potential concerns in the long - term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly. The anti - involution policy leads to tidal - style trading, and the trading style of the black - metal sector changes quickly. The two silicon alloys follow the market. The industry has turned from large losses to profits, and the supply continues to increase. With the arrival of the peak season, the terminal demand needs to be verified, and the risk of a decline in pig iron and electric - arc furnace operations is accumulating, which may impact the demand for the two alloys. The inventory is gradually accumulating, and the overall inventory level is still high [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading of coke at ports is weak, but the coking coal auction has good results due to pre - holiday replenishment, and most prices have risen. The futures market oscillates. From a macro perspective, there are signs of "all good news being priced in". From an industrial perspective, the supply - demand of steel has improved marginally before the holiday, and the cost support is effective. However, considering the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, the upward drive from the industry is limited. It is recommended to gradually liquidate long - side positions before the holiday and sell - hedge when the price rises [3]. - **Iron Ore**: After the iron ore meeting last week, there were many market rumors. The pig iron production has slightly increased to 240.02 million tons (+0.47). The profitability of steel mills has declined by 1.3% to 58.87%. The steel mills' replenishment for the National Day holiday is almost over. The transfer of iron ore inventory from ports to mills in the next week will support the price. The apparent demand for steel has slightly increased, mainly from rebar, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil has slightly declined. The steel mills have reduced rebar production, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to slight depletion. There is still support for iron ore before the National Day holiday, but the upside depends on the steel demand [3].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon increased last week, with a weekly supply of 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week. The demand also rose, reaching 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral, and the price of Industrial Silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 8,890 - 9,150 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Polysilicon**: The production of polysilicon decreased last week, with a weekly output of 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease. The production of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is generally increasing, and the overall demand is showing a continuous recovery. The cost support is relatively stable. The price of Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 50,405 - 52,355 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is increasing, the demand is rising, and the cost support is weakening. The market shows a complex situation with factors such as inventory increase and positive and negative factors in the basis and main positions. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [6][7]. - **Polysilicon**: The production is decreasing, but the downstream demand is recovering. The cost is stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a specific range [9]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Rising costs and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon. The main reason is the capacity mismatch [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The report provides detailed data on prices, inventory, production, and capacity utilization of industrial silicon and its downstream products such as organic silicon and aluminum alloy. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon is 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase from the previous week [15]. - **Polysilicon**: It presents data on the production, cost, price, and inventory of polysilicon and its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. For instance, the weekly inventory of polysilicon is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% decrease [9][17]. 3.3 Market Trends and Balance Sheets - **Industrial Silicon**: Multiple charts show the trends of price - basis, inventory, production, capacity utilization, and supply - demand balance of industrial silicon. The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets are also provided [19][25][35][38]. - **Polysilicon**: There are charts depicting the price trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon and its downstream products [22][59][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Grasberg mine accident intensifies concerns about tight global copper mine supply, and copper prices are expected to benefit from potential Fed rate cuts. In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions support copper prices, with the short - term price rising due to mine disturbances. The main focus is on the 81000 - 81500 support level [2]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a "high supply, high inventory, weak demand" pattern, with short - term prices expected to oscillate between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to show high - level oscillations after a decline, with the main contract in the 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton range [5]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy futures prices oscillate with aluminum prices. Cost rigidity and pre - holiday stocking support prices, but weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation restrict price increases. Short - term ADC12 prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton range [7]. Zinc - Due to the expectation of loose supply, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. Short - term prices may rise due to macro - drivers, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main reference range is 21500 - 22500 [10]. Tin - Supply is tight, providing support for tin prices, which continue to oscillate at high levels in the 265000 - 285000 range. The focus is on the supply recovery situation in Myanmar [12]. Nickel - The macro - environment is stable, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, restricting the upside space of prices. The main reference range is 119000 - 124000 [14]. Stainless Steel - Raw material prices are firm, providing cost support, but the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main operating range at 12800 - 13200 [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance. Strong peak - season demand supports prices, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate and sort out, with the main price center in the 70000 - 75000 range [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 80045 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the refined - scrap price difference is 1879 yuan/ton, up 4.45% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; alumina prices in various regions show different degrees of decline [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; various regions' price differences show different degrees of decline [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 21820 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 3230 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; imports were 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price is 271400 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 13025.42 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, tin ore imports were 10278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the futures import profit and loss is - 1374 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the futures - spot price difference is 375 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) in August was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports were 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average is 856 dollars/ton, down 0.47% [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [18].

Report Overview - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 24, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy market include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, cost support with electricity price hikes and manganese ore supply disruptions, the contradiction between the improvement of the term structure and capital withdrawal, and the contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the ferroalloy market. Positive factors include potential policy - driven supply reduction and cost support, while negative factors include weak downstream demand and high inventory in some cases [7][8][9] Key Points by Section Ferroalloy Price and Hedging - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.78% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.1%. For silicon manganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 12.0% [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM. For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3] Core Contradictions - **High Supply and Weak Demand**: Ferroalloy production profit declined in early September, but has since recovered. Production remains at a five - year high, while downstream demand shows no significant improvement, and there may be a "no - peak season" situation [4] - **Cost Support**: Ningxia's electricity price has been raised by 2 cents to 0.4 yuan/degree, and there are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October. Although current manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, short - term disruptions need attention [4] - **Term Structure and Capital Withdrawal**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, but the term structure of coking coal has worsened. Ferroalloy positions are decreasing, with silicon ferroalloy's total position at 396,000 lots (down 6% week - on - week) and silicon manganese's at 551,400 lots (down 2.75% week - on - week) [4] - **Anti - Involution Expectations and Weak Reality**: There are expectations of supply reduction, but lack of substantial actions, leading to a high risk of price reversals [5] 利多解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: There are rumors of an increase in the standard for metallurgical industry submerged arc furnaces, and an important article in the "Qiushi" magazine may address industry competition issues. Silicon ferroalloy enterprise inventory is 63,400 tons (down 9.3% week - on - week), and total inventory is 151,500 tons (down 0.53% week - on - week) [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: Strict government policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industry restructuring. There are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October, which may affect silicon manganese costs [7] 利空解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Silicon ferroalloy enterprises maintain high operating rates, while downstream demand is weak [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about steel demand. Silicon manganese inventory is increasing, with enterprise inventory at 198,900 tons (up 19.24% week - on - week), total inventory at 502,300 tons (up 5.97% week - on - week), and Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September silicon manganese price down 200 yuan/ton compared to August [9] Daily Data - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 18, down 100 day - on - day and 68 week - on - week. The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5480 yuan/ton, up 30 day - on - day and 30 week - on - week [10] - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 198, down 12 day - on - day and up 62 week - on - week. The spot price in Ningxia was 5680 yuan/ton, down 20 day - on - day and 20 week - on - week [11]

Core Viewpoint - The PTA futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract showing a price range between 4560.00 and 4630.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a gain of approximately 1.27% [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side: Recent stability in production facilities has led to an increase in operational load, resulting in a gradual rise in overall supply pressure [1]. - Demand side: Polyester demand remains stable, but the traditional peak season is showing lackluster performance, with general terminal order conditions being average [1]. - Inventory: Industry inventory continues to decrease, although there is an accumulation in the polyester product line [1]. Cost Factors - Cost dynamics: A significant rebound in crude oil prices has been observed, which is expected to drive short-term strength in TA valuations [1]. - PX supply: The restart of domestic and international PX maintenance facilities is leading to a gradual increase in PX supply, putting pressure on PXN [1][2]. Market Outlook - Overall market sentiment: The PTA market is anticipated to experience weak fluctuations, with a focus on the balance between cost support and ample supply [2]. - Trading strategy: Recommendations suggest a bearish trading approach, with reference pressure levels for the 2601 contract set between 4700 and 4750 CNY/ton [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel have corrected, with reduced spot trading volume and a still weak market sentiment. Macro - level, US interest rate cuts are beneficial for mid - cycle liquidity and risk appetite, and the follow - up of domestic policies needs to be observed. Industry - level, steel demand in the off - season is not strong, and the improvement in building materials' apparent demand is not significant. There is cost support due to high hot metal production and pre - National Day furnace charge restocking, but high production of building materials poses a potential risk. Futures trading suggests waiting and seeing, and for basis - stage buying hedging positions, consider rolling profit - taking before the National Day according to spot exposure [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has improved, but there are concerns in the fundamentals. The industry's average profit has been restored, and supply continues to increase. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", terminal demand needs verification, and the risk of a decline in hot metal and electric furnace start - up accumulates, which may impact demand. Current industry inventories are still high, and there is pressure to reduce inventories [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal spot prices are strong. Before the National Day, due to restocking, coking coal auction transactions are good, and prices mostly rise. Futures are oscillating. Although there are positive macro - news, the market shows a "sell - on - news" sign. From an industry perspective, the cost support is verified, but due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, the upward driving force is limited. It is recommended to gradually liquidate long positions before the National Day and use selling hedging when prices rise [3]. - **Iron Ore**: There are many rumors in the market during the iron ore conference week. Steel mills' hot metal production has slightly increased, and the profit rate has declined. Steel mills' restocking for the National Day is almost over. Before the National Day, factors such as restricted circulation of mineral resources and restocking support iron ore prices, but the upside depends on steel demand. The long - term view is to buy on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 23, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3212 yuan/ton (- 33 yuan, - 1.02%), HC2605 at 3351 yuan/ton (- 42 yuan, - 1.24%), etc.; for near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3155 yuan/ton (- 32 yuan, - 1.00%), HC2601 at 3340 yuan/ton (- 45 yuan, - 1.33%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: On September 23, the spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 57 yuan/ton (+ 2 yuan), the spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was - 11 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan), etc. The coil - to - rebar spread was 185 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.93 (- 0.01), etc. [1]. Spot Market - **Prices**: On September 23, Shanghai rebar was 3250 yuan/ton (- 40 yuan), Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton (- 70 yuan), etc. [1]. - **Basis**: On September 23, the basis of HC main contract was 30 yuan/ton (- 30 yuan), the basis of RB main contract was 95 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan), etc. [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish on px - mx [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [4] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [4] Core Views - The geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market have led to a short - term rebound, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged, and the price is under downward pressure [1][7][9]. - LPG is affected by the cost - end rebound and weak downstream demand, showing a weakening trend [1][12][13]. - L has improved cost support, short - term stop - falling, with strong supply and demand fundamentally but insufficient upward drive [1][18]. - PP has improved cost support, short - term stop - falling, with supply pressure expected to ease and slow - rising demand [1][23]. - PVC has good cost support and strong exports, but the supply - demand situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [1][28]. - PX's supply - demand tight - balance expectation is loosening, and it is expected to be weak [1][31][32]. - PTA's supply - side pressure may ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [2][35][36]. - Ethylene glycol's supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, but the low inventory provides some support [2][40][41]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure is still large, but the demand has improved, and the downward space may be limited [2][43][45]. - Urea's supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, and the inventory is accumulating [2][48][50]. - Natural gas in the US has seen an unexpected inventory build - up, leading to a weakening price, but the cooling weather provides some support [4]. - Asphalt is under pressure due to the weak cost - end and loose supply - demand situation [4]. - Glass has a weak reality and strong expectation, with supply under pressure and demand insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. - Soda ash's supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.81%, Brent up 1.52%, and SC down 1.84% [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances and unexpected inventory draw - down in the US provided short - term support, but the long - term supply is in surplus [7][8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, focus on the break - even point of shale oil new wells around $60 [9]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4,247 yuan/ton, down 1.07% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has a supply surplus, and the demand for downstream chemicals has weakened, with high warehouse receipts [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,300] yuan/ton [13]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,130 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, short - term stop - falling, with abundant supply and strengthening demand [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to basis repair and wait for dips to go long, focus on the range of [7,100 - 7,200] yuan/ton [18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,873 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, short - term stop - falling, with supply pressure expected to ease and rising demand [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices, do not chase short at low absolute prices, focus on the range of [6,800 - 6,950] yuan/ton [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, exports were strong, but supply was stronger than demand, and inventory was accumulating [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips due to low valuation, focus on the range of [4,800 - 5,000] yuan/ton [28]. PX - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side changes were small, demand was expected to weaken, and the supply - demand tight - balance expectation was loosening [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focus on the range of [6,515 - 6,600] yuan/ton [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PTA price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season was underperforming, and the demand was weak [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short at high prices, focus on the range of [4,550 - 4,600] yuan/ton [36]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, demand was weak, but low inventory provided some support [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,250] yuan/ton [41]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure was still large, but demand had improved, and cost support was stabilizing [43][44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract, focus on the range of [2,335 - 2,365] yuan/ton [45]. Urea - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton [47]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was relatively loose, demand was weak at home and strong abroad, and inventory was accumulating [48][49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to go long at low valuations, focus on the range of [1,650 - 1,670] yuan/ton [50]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: As of the week of September 12, the US natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2,433 billion cubic feet [4]. - **Basic Logic**: Unexpected inventory build - up led to price weakening, but cooling weather provided some support [4]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end was weak, supply - demand was loose, and the valuation was high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was under pressure, demand was insufficient, and inventory was expected to increase [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was expected to be loose, and demand was mostly for rigid needs [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical issues, supply - demand imbalances, and policy uncertainties across different commodities. Each commodity has its own unique situation, with some showing short - term fluctuations and others having long - term supply - demand challenges. Overall, most commodities are expected to have a range - bound performance in the short term [1][2][4] Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - US commercial crude inventory decreased by 3.821 million barrels in the week ending September 19, 2025. Year - to - date, US crude inventory has increased by 1.5 million barrels. The stalemate in the agreement to resume oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan and reports of Russia considering additional fuel export restrictions have boosted oil prices. However, there is still pressure from supply surplus. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Rubber - Thai raw material prices showed mixed trends. The 18th typhoon "Huksa" may land in the central and western coastal areas of Guangdong. The typhoon disrupts rubber tapping, and downstream pre - holiday restocking has ended with slow inventory reduction. China's natural rubber inventory is at a low level, and a larger and more sustained market requires demand - side support. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and it should be treated with a range - bound view [2] Manganese Silicon - The开工率 of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 45.68%, a decrease of 1.70% from last week, and the daily output is 29,825 tons, a decrease of 765 tons. The overall production cost of manganese silicon has declined, and the industry profit has been slightly repaired. Steel mills' profits are okay, and the output of finished products in the peak season is expected to rise. However, the supply of manganese silicon is still high, and the difficulty of inventory reduction is increasing. The short - term peak - season expectation supports the price, but the price may decline after the peak season [4] Lithium Carbonate - The market has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Macro - policies affect futures fluctuations. Some mines in Jiangxi have not given responses on the supply side, while the energy - storage demand is on an upward trend. High inventory suppresses the price. It is recommended to go long on LC2511 at low prices, with an expected operating range of 68,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton [5] Rebar - On September 23, domestic steel prices turned from rising to falling. To deal with the typhoon, "five - stop" measures were implemented in Guangdong, which hindered logistics and transportation. The supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market before the holiday improved little, with general and unstable trading and low market confidence. Steel prices have fallen from high levels [6] PTA - This week, domestic PTA production was 1.4309 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 77.29%. Supply is expected to increase. Polyester and terminal loads are slowly recovering, providing short - term support, but the expectation of new orders and load improvement is limited. PX supply is increasing, and PXN is under pressure. Crude oil is fluctuating. PTA should be regarded as range - bound and weak [6] Live Pigs - On September 23, the average price of pork in the wholesale market increased by 0.1%. The previous continuous decline in pig prices has led to increased market resistance, and local second - fattening inquiries have increased, slowing down the decline. However, the slaughter pressure on the breeding side remains, and the price has not stopped falling. After continuous price drops, the breeding side's willingness to support prices is rising. Short - term long positions can be tried, but the upside space is limited [7] Palm Oil - From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% compared to the same period last month, and exports decreased by 16.1%. The cancellation of Argentina's export tariff impacts international vegetable oil prices, while China and India's low - price replenishment boosts exports. It is recommended to go long at low prices and keep an eye on Argentina's soybean exports [8] Rapeseed Meal - Canadian rapeseed exports decreased to 45,500 tons from the previous week. The decline in US soybean futures prices has dragged down the cost of imported soybeans in China. After the market sentiment caused by Argentina's tariff cancellation fades, rapeseed meal prices will fluctuate in the short term. Key factors to watch include China - Canada trade policies, upstream production, and downstream procurement [9] Methanol - The domestic methanol operating rate has decreased from a high level, while downstream demand has increased. The expected import volume in September remains high, and port inventory continues to accumulate. The inland methanol market has declined, and port market trading is average. It is expected that the methanol 01 contract will be range - bound and weak in the short term, with resistance at 2,375 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [10] Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, indicating a looser money supply, which is beneficial to the bond market. In the third quarter, there are still disturbances from bond supply - demand and the stock market. A range - bound view should be taken for short - term Treasury bond futures [10] Silver - Powell's remarks about high US stock valuations led to a decline in US stocks overnight, which is negative for silver. Silver has a short - term callback demand but is still range - bound and bullish. The impact of gold on silver should be monitored [11] Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased by 2.02% week - on - week, and inventory has decreased by 2.33%. The float - glass operating rate is stable, and demand is weak. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high supply and limited demand fluctuations. It is expected that the soda ash 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1,250 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [12] Gold - There are significant differences within the Fed regarding future monetary policy. Geopolitical risks are increasing, and the safe - haven sentiment is driving up the price of gold. Gold is range - bound and bullish [13] Plastics - The price of LLDPE in North China has declined. Production has increased by 3.21% week - on - week, and enterprise inventory has decreased. Downstream operating rates are expected to rise, but pre - holiday restocking is not active. The cost side provides strong support. It is expected that the L2601 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with support at 7,090 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on pullbacks [13]