Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/04 Commentary: Rapeseed Meal, Crude Oil, Aluminum Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in policy trends. 宏观：中欧出口管制对话磋商在布鲁塞尔举行。 China Futures Daily Note 期货：11 月 3 日，股指期货涨跌不一，多数国债期货下跌；商品期货涨跌不一，幅度有限。 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Co ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The divergence within the Fed has increased, making the December interest rate cut more uncertain. With the easing of Sino - US relations, the safe - haven sentiment has cooled significantly, and gold may迎来 a major cycle inflection point. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the medium term [1]. - For rubber, although the overall shipment pressure remains high in November and the utilization rate of production capacity is restricted, the low inventory and low warehouse receipts in China provide medium - term support, and the downward space of rubber prices may be limited [2]. - Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the digestion of macro - positive news, the low - level operation of the real estate market, the end of the traditional peak demand season, and the expected reduction of blast furnace hot metal production [4]. - The coke spot market is running strongly. Although the coking profit is under pressure and the steel mill's production is restricted, the hot metal is expected to rebound after a short - term decline, and the third round of price increase has started [5]. - For silicon iron, the high cost and high steel output support the price, but the loose supply - demand relationship restricts the upward space [6]. - The economic downward pressure increases, and the bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in the medium term due to factors such as the need for counter - cyclical adjustment and the possible open - market operation of government bonds [6]. - For silver, the short - term is in a shock, and it is still bullish in the long term due to the increasing economic downward pressure in the US and the increasing demand for counter - cyclical interest rate cuts [7]. - For rapeseed meal, the rigid shortage of supply and low inventory of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of price decline, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. - Palm oil is expected to run weakly in the short term due to the significant increase in Malaysian palm oil production in October and the expected inventory accumulation [8]. - The price of live pigs is expected to adjust weakly in the near future due to the increase in supply and insufficient demand growth [9]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2160, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - PX should be treated with a shock perspective. Although the load of Asian and domestic PX will remain at a relatively high level and the PXN processing fee is under pressure, the stable crude oil provides support for the lower price [11]. - Crude oil prices have stabilized, but there is still supply pressure in the remaining period of the year, and the price may be in a shock state. Only when the geopolitical conflict intensifies can the price center rise [13]. - Polypropylene is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 6590, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - Soda ash is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1205, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Gold**: The divergence within the Fed makes the December interest rate cut uncertain. Sino - US relations ease, and gold may迎来 a major cycle inflection point. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the medium term [1]. - **Silver**: The US economic downward pressure increases, which is bearish for silver in the short term, but the increasing demand for counter - cyclical interest rate cuts is bullish in the long term. It is in a shock - bullish state with limited downward space [7]. - **Steel (including rebar)**: Steel prices may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to factors such as the digestion of macro - positive news, the low - level operation of the real estate market, and the expected reduction of blast furnace hot metal production [4]. - **Coke**: The coke spot market is running strongly. The third round of price increase has started, and the futures price is expected to be stable [5]. - **Silicon Iron**: The high cost and high steel output support the price, but the loose supply - demand relationship restricts the upward space [6]. Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rigid shortage of supply and low inventory of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of price decline. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade policies [8]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil production increased significantly in October, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. The domestic market is weak in the short term [8]. - **Live Pigs**: The price is expected to adjust weakly in the near future due to the increase in supply and insufficient demand growth [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The overall shipment pressure is high in November, but the low inventory in China provides medium - term support, and the downward space of rubber prices may be limited [2]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure at 2160, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **PX**: It should be treated with a shock perspective. The high load of Asian and domestic PX and the pressure on PXN processing fees coexist with the support from stable crude oil [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price has stabilized, but there is still supply pressure in the remaining period of the year, and it may be in a shock state [13]. - **Polypropylene**: It is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 6590, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [13]. - **Soda Ash**: It is expected to run in a shock in the short term, with the upper pressure at 1205, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic downward pressure increases, and the bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in the medium term due to factors such as the need for counter - cyclical adjustment and the possible open - market operation of government bonds [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Stocks**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long positions [2][3] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation and rebound, cautious long positions [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long positions [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long positions [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term oscillation, cautious long positions [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level correction, cautious wait - and - see [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US economic data shows signs of cooling, but the market has doubts about the Fed's further interest rate cuts this year, leading to a stronger US dollar and a decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, the manufacturing prosperity level in October declined, and economic growth slowed down, but the policy stimulus expectation increased after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and the quality of economic growth, with the short - term upward macro - drive weakening [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions. For example, stocks are expected to oscillate in the short term, precious metals are in a short - term high - level correction, and various commodities have different trends and investment strategies based on their fundamentals [2][3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, with weak demand, employment, and cooling inflation. The US job market shows signs of cooling, and corporate lay - offs this year have reached a new high since 2020. The US dollar index has strengthened, and global risk appetite has declined. Domestically, China's manufacturing prosperity level in October declined, and economic growth slowed down. Policy stimulus expectations increased after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2]. - **Stocks**: Driven by sectors such as film and television theaters, short - drama games, and oil and gas, the domestic stock market rose. The manufacturing prosperity level in October declined, and economic growth slowed down, but policy stimulus expectations increased. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term oscillation and rebound, cautious long positions [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market declined slightly on Monday night. The market is waiting for US private - sector employment data to assess the possibility of the Fed's further interest rate cuts this year. Short - term oscillation, long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Short - term wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3]. 3.2 Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets declined slightly on Monday, and trading volume remained low. Real - world demand improved marginally in late October, and speculative demand also increased. Supply decreased due to losses in some varieties and environmental protection restrictions. The short - term steel market is expected to return to fundamentals and oscillate within a range [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined more on Monday. With the narrowing of steel mill profits and the upgrading of environmental protection restrictions, pig iron production continued to decline, and steel mill ore inventories decreased. The global iron ore arrival volume increased significantly this week, and port inventories continued to rise. Iron ore prices are expected to decline further [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot price of silicon iron declined slightly, and that of silicon manganese remained flat on Monday, with the futures prices oscillating. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for ferroalloys was fair. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to continue to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated within a range on Monday. Supply increased this week, and there are capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter, with supply remaining loose. Demand remained stable. In the long - term, supply - side contradictions will drag down prices, and a bearish view is recommended [7]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass opened high and closed low on Monday, affected by news from Shahe. Supply remained stable, demand was weak year - on - year, and inventory was relatively high. With the support of anti - involution policies, glass is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand during the year - end completion peak [7]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Multiple Fed officials oppose interest rate cuts. US copper inventories are at a historical high, which restricts future import demand. There is a possibility of the Panama copper mine restarting. Domestically, refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The shutdown of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine will support futures prices, and short - term high - level oscillation is expected [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, Shanghai aluminum rose sharply to a one - year high. There is no clear news, and the rise may be due to the repair of the copper - aluminum price ratio and concerns about supply after overseas smelter accidents. The current rise has deviated from fundamentals, and attention should be paid to risks. LME aluminum inventories increased last Friday, and domestic aluminum social inventories de - stocked slowly [9]. - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate increased significantly and then decreased slightly, remaining at a high level. Supply is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and high prices suppress physical demand. However, due to previous low inventories, some downstream enterprises replenished stocks, and inventories decreased. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium and short term [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate declined on Monday. The current supply and demand are both strong, and social inventories are de - stocking rapidly. There was a rumor of the resumption of production in Jiangxi, which led to a decline in the weighted contract. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait for the "emotional bottom" [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon declined on Monday. Demand is relatively stable, and social inventories are slightly increasing at a high level. Supported by the cash - flow cost of large enterprises and the rising coal price, the market is expected to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Monday. With strong policy expectations and weak reality in a stalemate, the spot price of polysilicon is supported, but terminal demand is weak. Affected by the rumor of polysilicon storage and the resonance of the photovoltaic sector, it is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buy on dips [12][13]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is weighing OPEC+'s plan to suspend production increases next quarter. There are concerns about oversupply next year. The short - term upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to window trading [14]. - **Asphalt**: The cost support of asphalt weakened, and the basis narrowed. There is a slight inventory accumulation pressure, and it is approaching the demand off - season. Although the profit is slightly increasing, the supply pressure will increase later. Attention should be paid to the rebound space of crude oil under geopolitical risks [14]. - **PX**: Crude oil price rebound slowed down, and PX oscillated. PTA's high start - up rate provides some demand support. PX remains in a tight supply situation, and short - term price changes are mainly driven by crude oil costs [15]. - **PTA**: Downstream start - up increased slightly, and winter weaving demand increased. However, the supply remains high, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure in November [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventories accumulated again, and the downstream start - up is neutral. There is a large inventory accumulation pressure in November, and the price is testing the previous low support with limited rebound drive [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber oscillates with the polyester sector in the short term, but the later pressure is large. Terminal orders are seasonally declining, and inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [16]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market shows regional differentiation. Port inventories are slightly decreasing, while inland inventories are accumulating. In the short term, the market sentiment is bearish, but the downward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate later [17]. - **PP**: The supply growth rate of PP is higher than the demand recovery rate, and the inventory is relatively high. However, demand shows marginal improvement, and the rebound of crude oil prices supports the cost. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. - **LLDPE**: The core contradiction in the polyethylene market is the increasing supply pressure. Demand is expected to decline after the peak in early November, and the cost support is weak. The price is expected to continue to be under pressure [17]. - **Urea**: Urea supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Agricultural demand is approaching the end, and industrial demand is weak. Export is expected to remain at a low level [18]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT soybean futures rose overnight. Sino - US agricultural trade is expected to improve, and the USDA may raise the export forecast. If the yield per unit decreases, the US soybean ending inventory will shrink, strengthening the cost - recovery logic [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The pressure of concentrated soybean arrivals in China is increasing, and soybean meal supply is sufficient. The repair of Sino - US agricultural trade relations may lead to higher import costs and potential inventory accumulation of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal prices rose, and the spread between soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow [19][20]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil has entered a technically oversold stage. Although there is short - term supply disturbance, it has entered the production - reduction cycle, and the seasonal de - stocking trend remains unchanged. It is running weakly in China [21]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean oil is adjusting weakly. The supply is strong, but it is relatively resistant to decline due to the increase in import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory is high, but rapeseed inventory is low, and the base price is supported by trade concerns [22]. - **Corn**: The pressure of wet corn sales has weakened, and the spot price is stable. The futures price is running weakly, but the bottom - range market may provide support [22]. - **Hogs**: The overall slaughter volume of pig groups is expected to increase in November. The breeding profit is in the red, and the pig price is unlikely to rebound significantly before the winter solstice bacon - curing consumption peak in December [22].

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at historically low levels, with asphalt plant operating rates at 31.5%, cement dispatch rates at 37.4%, and grinding mill operation rates at 37.2% compared to historical averages[13][14]. - Industrial production is at a historically high level, with PX operating rates at 86.3% and PTA rates at 76.5%[24][25]. - Demand for construction materials is weak, with rebar, wire rod, and building materials at historical lows, and automotive sales showing a decline[32][33]. Price Trends - International commodity prices have rebounded, with crude oil and copper prices increasing, while gold prices have decreased[41][43]. - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing mixed trends, with iron ore and rebar prices rising, while chemical products are showing weakness[44][50]. Real Estate Market - New housing transactions have seen a year-on-year decline, with a 21% increase in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, but still down 34% and 33% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[64][66]. - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with year-on-year declines of 24%, 16%, and 31% in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen respectively[68][69]. Export Performance - October exports are projected to show a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.9%, with port throughput up 8.9% compared to 2024[71][72]. Liquidity Conditions - Recent weeks have seen an upward trend in funding rates, with R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.46% as of October 31[76][78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the demand for crude oil may recover to some extent driven by heating stockpiling. The low inventory of crude oil and the decision of OPEC+ to suspend production increase in Q1 2026 support the oil price to stand firm at the WTI $60 support level. Without macro - shocks, the oil price has an upward - repair drive. In the medium term, due to the surplus contradiction within the year, the upside space is expected to be limited, and it may maintain a wide - range shock pattern within the year, with the price center likely to rise next year [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Analysis 3.1.1 Crude Oil Price Trends - In October, the oil market was mainly dominated by geopolitics and macro - factors, showing a V - shaped reversal of first falling and then rising. As of October 31, the average monthly settlement prices of WTI and Brent were $60.04/barrel (- 5.55%) and $63.95/barrel (- 5.36%) respectively; the average monthly settlement price of INE SC was 453.86 yuan/barrel (- 6.74%) [9]. 3.1.2 Financial Aspects - In October, the US government shutdown delayed the release of non - farm data, but the market's expectation of interest rate cuts remained strong, with a preventive interest rate cut of 25 basis points. As of October 31, the S&P 500 index reached 6840, hitting a new high since mid - April, and the VIX volatility was 17.44, significantly lower than when the tariff policy was first implemented and still at a low level this month [14]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index - As of October 31, the crude oil volatility ETF was 36.2, and the dollar index was 99.7308. In October, geopolitical and macro - factors repeatedly disturbed the crude oil market, causing the overall crude oil volatility to rise. Although the expected interest rate cut was implemented in October, the Fed emphasized it was a preventive cut and accompanied by the exit from QE, so the dollar index rose instead of falling under the narrative of the US stock market [18]. 3.1.4 Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions - As of October 28, the net long positions of Brent managed funds decreased by 28,600 contracts to 173,900 contracts month - on - month, a monthly decline of 14.1%; the net long positions of ICE diesel decreased by 38,100 contracts to 79,300 contracts, a monthly decline of 32.5%. In October, it was a seasonal off - season, and the net long positions decreased significantly under the weak fundamental situation [22]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis 3.2.1 OPEC Overall Production - In September, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 524,000 barrels per day to 28.44 million barrels per day compared with the previous month. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading the pace. The eight core OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production had their production still below the plan in August, but the production increase speed has accelerated [28]. 3.2.2 OPEC+ Production Cut Situation - According to the IEA statistical caliber, the production of 9 OPEC member countries in September was 23.87 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 barrels per day. The UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still over - produced significantly, but the overall over - production amplitude of the 9 countries decreased compared with the previous month. The core 7 countries updated the compensation production cut plan, and the concentrated production cut volume was postponed to the first half of next year [32]. 3.2.3 Saudi and Iranian Crude Oil Production - In September, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 248,000 barrels per day to 9.961 million barrels per day; Iran's crude oil production increased by 45,000 barrels per day to 3.258 million barrels per day. Iran was sanctioned again, and the 12 - day Israel - Iran war in June also affected its subsequent oil production [35]. 3.2.4 Main Oil - Producing Countries' Production Changes - The production of major oil - producing countries such as Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait showed different trends. The data shows the production changes of these countries over time [39]. 3.2.5 Russian Crude Oil Supply - According to the OPEC statistical caliber, Russia's crude oil production in September was 9.321 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 148,000 barrels per day; according to the IEA statistical caliber, it was 9.21 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 70,000 barrels per day. With the continuous expansion of sanctions on Russia by Europe and the US, although Russia's production is expected to gradually recover under the production increase plan, it may still be at a low level [43]. 3.2.6 US Crude Oil Rig Count - As of the week of October 31, the number of online drilling oil wells in the US was 414, a decrease of 8 compared with the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 65. The improvement of drilling and well efficiency allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditures [47]. 3.2.7 US Crude Oil Production - As of the week of October 24, US crude oil production rebounded to 13.644 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 15,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.07%. The high oil prices since June seem to have boosted the enthusiasm of oil producers [50]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis 3.3.1 US Total Petroleum Product Demand - As of the week of October 24, the total daily demand for refined oil products in the US was 20.753 million barrels per day, a decrease of 144,000 barrels per day compared with the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 0.91%. In October, the demand for oil products bottomed out and rebounded after a seasonal weakening, and it is expected to peak again in November [54]. 3.3.2 US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data - In October, US crude oil production increased by 1.03% month - on - month, consumption increased by 2.01%, refinery processing volume decreased by 5.87%, and refinery operating rate decreased by 5.25%. The import volume of crude oil decreased by 13.41%, and the export volume increased by 16.26% [58]. 3.3.3 US Gasoline, Diesel, and Kerosene Four - Week Average Consumption - As of the four weeks of October 24, the average demand for gasoline in the US decreased by 114,000 barrels per day to 8.688 million barrels per day compared with the previous month, a year - on - year decrease of 4.19%; the average demand for distillates increased by 172,000 barrels per day to 4.002 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%; the average consumption of kerosene increased by 124,000 barrels per day to 1.764 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 7.63% [59]. 3.3.4 US Gasoline and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of October 31, the gasoline crack spread was $19.64/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $41.13/barrel. In October, the crack spreads of these two products rebounded, which was in line with the seasonality of each oil product [63]. 3.3.5 European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads - As of October 31, the ICE diesel crack spread was $32.95/barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $32.67/barrel. In the third quarter, European diesel performed better than heating oil due to low inventory and peak - season replenishment demand. Driven by diesel, the overall oil products were in a warm atmosphere, and the crack spreads continued to rise [67]. 3.3.6 China's Oil Products and Refinery Situation - In September, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 3.963 million tons year - on - year to 62.69 million tons (+ 6.75%); the import volume increased by 1.76 million tons year - on - year to 47.25 million tons (+ 3.87%). Currently, China's demand has entered an off - season, and the processing volume, import volume, and refinery operating rate have all declined [71]. 3.3.7 Institutions' Forecasts of Demand Growth - In October, EIA, IEA, and OPEC predicted that the global crude oil demand growth rate this year would be 1.1 million barrels per day (↑), 700,000 barrels per day (↓), and 1.3 million barrels per day (-) respectively; next year, the growth rates would be 1.1 million barrels per day, 700,000 barrels per day, and 1.4 million barrels per day respectively [74]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis 3.4.1 US Crude Oil Inventory - In October, US commercial crude oil first accumulated and then decreased. As of October 24, EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 415.97 million barrels compared with the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 2.24%; SPR inventory increased by 533,000 barrels to 409.1 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.334 million barrels to 22.565 million barrels [75]. 3.4.2 Inventory Changes - As of the week of October 24, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 1.025 million barrels per day to 690,000 barrels per day. The refinery processing volume decreased by 1.078 million barrels per day to 15.219 million barrels per day compared with the end of the previous month, and the refinery operating rate dropped to a minimum of 85.7% in October and decreased by 2% to 86.6% last week [79]. 3.4.3 WTI Monthly Spread - The WTI monthly spread generally maintained a back structure. As of October 31, the WTI M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.38/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $0.99/barrel. The monthly spread index bottomed out and rebounded. In the first half of October, the demand for refined oil products in the US bottomed out, and the spread continued to decline. In the second half of the month, the spread widened slightly under the background of rising geopolitical tensions and increasing heating demand [82]. 3.4.4 Brent Monthly Spread - The Brent monthly spread still maintained a back structure. As of October 31, the Brent M1 - M2 monthly spread was $0.3/barrel, and the M1 - M5 monthly spread was $1.37/barrel. The Brent monthly spread, like the WTI monthly spread, still showed a positive - carry pattern but was relatively stronger due to the expected tighter supply in the European region caused by sanctions on Russia [85]. 3.5 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Differences 3.5.1 Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the EIA's October monthly report forecast, in 2025, the global oil supply is 105.85 million barrels per day, and the demand is 103.99 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.88 million barrels, which continues to increase compared with the previous month. This year, the supply side is affected by the gradual production increase of OPEC+, and the demand side is restricted by the US tariff policy, showing a clear surplus pattern [88]. 3.5.2 Term Structure - The US fundamental data shows that the off - season has arrived, and the term structure continues to flatten. Due to geopolitical factors, the supply of Brent still has a tight expectation, and the positive - carry structure can be supported on the basis of good crack profits. Currently, international oil products can maintain the positive - carry term structure. Although the demand off - season is coming, OPEC's willingness to continue increasing production has decreased, and it is expected that the positive - carry pattern of Brent may weaken but still be maintained [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Copper - After the interest rate cut and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. The copper supply shortage supports the price, and downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the 86000 - 86500 support level [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November. The electrolytic aluminum market was strong in October, and it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern in November with limited upside potential. Although high aluminum prices have inhibited some consumption and exports, the overall macro environment is positive [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the cast aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and was strong. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the peak season but with a mediocre performance. It is expected that the ADC12 price will remain strongly volatile in November, with an operating range of 20200 - 21000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is gradually shifting from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. The smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is not outstanding, but the low overseas inventory may cause a short squeeze on LME zinc, supporting the price. The zinc price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and may remain range - bound [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut, the tin price may decline in the short - term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The future trend depends on the macro situation and the supply recovery in Myanmar [13]. Nickel - The nickel futures market fluctuates within a range. The production of refined nickel is high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures were strong last week, but there was news of potential supply increases, which affected the market sentiment. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in production and an improvement in demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in November, with a reference range of 78000 - 87000 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 87570 yuan/ton, down 0.56% from the previous day. The electrolytic copper production in October was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month [2]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of electrolytic copper in September was 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month. The inventory of various types showed different changes, such as SHFE inventory increasing by 10.83% week - on - week [2]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price was 21280 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The alumina production in October was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month [4]. Fundamental Data - The electrolytic aluminum production in October was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month. The full - scale market inventory of alumina increased by 31.27 million tons to 437.55 million tons as of October 30 [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM Southwest ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in September was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots in September was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22280 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day. The refined zinc production in October was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month [11]. Fundamental Data - The import volume of refined zinc in September was 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month. The LME inventory increased by 1.15% [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 284400 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous day. The domestic tin ore import in September decreased by 15.13% month - on - month [13]. Fundamental Data - The SMM refined tin production in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of SHEF increased by 2.65% week - on - week [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 121950 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The production of Chinese refined nickel increased by 1.26% month - on - month [14]. Supply and Inventory - The SHFE inventory increased by 1.87% week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 1.43% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel decreased by 0.99% month - on - month [17]. Fundamental Data - The stainless steel import volume increased by 2.70% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 80220 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day. The lithium carbonate production in October was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month [20]. Fundamental Data - The lithium carbonate demand in September was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.38% [20].

Domestic Macro - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined from previous highs but remains near the critical zone, indicating a temporary pullback rather than a trend weakening due to high base effects post-holiday[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index returned to the expansion zone, reflecting resilient domestic demand, with continued growth in service consumption and travel activities[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index saw a slight decline, primarily influenced by last week's significant expansion base effect[1] - The Export Sentiment Index remained stable, indicating a diversified trade structure buffering against weak external demand[1] - The Production Sentiment Index also experienced a pullback due to high base effects, with corporate orders and operational conditions returning to normal[1] Global Macro - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% and announced the end of balance sheet reduction on December 1[5] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with a slight increase in the economic growth forecast for the fiscal year to 0.7%[5] - The European Central Bank kept the main interest rate at 2%, citing weak economic recovery in the Eurozone due to trade and geopolitical uncertainties[6] - Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, surpassing the market expectation of 0.1%, with France showing a growth of 0.5%[6] Market Focus - The ADP reported an average of approximately 14,000 new jobs added weekly in the private sector over the past four weeks, indicating a need for more timely employment data[7] - The U.S. government shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of $18 billion, with potential GDP impacts of 1.5% to 2% if the shutdown extends beyond six to eight weeks[7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the fundamentals of polypropylene are slightly better than those of polyethylene, but the boost from fundamentals to polyolefins may still be limited. If there is no substantial improvement in the macro - level, polyolefins are likely to continue to fluctuate [7] - The domestic macro - level has expectations of warming up, and the international macro - level also has the possibility of improvement [23] Summary by Directory 1. Macro - level China - In late September 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. In September 2025, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 300 billion yuan [8] - In October 2025, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [8] - In September 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.3% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month [10] - From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of new commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The sales volume of new commercial housing was 6304 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7229.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. In September, the real estate development climate index was 92.78 [12][14] - In September 2025, macro - economic data was still weak, showing weak demand. Except for the improvement in PPI, other economic indicators were weak, especially the real estate data [16] International - In September 2025, the CPI in the US increased by 0.1% from the previous month to 3%, and the CPI in the eurozone increased by 0.2% from the previous month to 2.2%. The eurozone faces greater economic recession pressure with lower inflation. The US inflation is still some distance from the 2% target range due to continuous tariff disturbances, but both are at relatively low levels, which is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost the economy [17] - On October 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate from 4.00% - 4.25% to 3.75% - 4.00%, a decrease of 25 basis points. This is the second interest rate cut within the year and the second consecutive cut since September. The main refinancing rate in the eurozone has dropped to 2.15% [20] - The Fed will end the reduction of its total securities holdings on December 1, 2025, ending the three - and - a - half - year balance sheet reduction [19] - High tariffs and high interest rates still have a certain negative impact on the US economy, but the US economy remains resilient. In September 2025, the US manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to 49.1%, and the service industry PMI decreased by 2 percentage points from the previous month to 50% [21] 2. Fundamental - level PE - In October 2025, the production and capacity utilization rate of polyethylene increased. The capacity utilization rate was 82.05%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points from the previous period, and the output was 2.8851 million tons, an increase of 6.6 percentage points. The increase in output was mainly due to the new ExxonMobil device and the reduction of maintenance volume by 15% [24][25] - In October 2025, the overall downstream industry start - up rate of polyethylene was 44.92%, an increase of 2.35% from the previous month. The average monthly start - up rate of the PE packaging film industry was 52.27%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.08% and a month - on - month increase of 0.79%. The overall start - up rate of agricultural film increased by 15.8% month - on - month [27] - In October 2025, the social inventory of polyethylene increased. At the end of the month, the inventory in social sample warehouses was 527,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 167,000 tons. Due to the increase in domestic production and imports, polyethylene was in a situation of oversupply, and the social inventory increased during the peak season [30] PP - In October 2025, the total production of polypropylene in China was 3.5058 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.69% and a year - on - year increase of 15.37%. Although the loss data of polypropylene was still high, the overall start - up level of production enterprises increased, leading to an increase in total production [35] - In October 2025, the total consumption of polypropylene increased slightly month - on - month. The estimated apparent consumption in China was 3.5158 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.37% and a year - on - year increase of 11.56%. The start - up rates of downstream products increased month - on - month, especially in the modification, non - woven fabric, and plastic weaving industries, with increases of 5.45%, 4.41%, and 2.50% respectively. The demand for impact - copolymer polypropylene was driven by the new energy vehicle market, and the start - up rates of plastic weaving and non - woven fabrics were supported by stable orders. However, the growth of PP pipes and BOPP was small due to the weak real estate market and oversupply in the film factory [36][38] - At the end of October 2025, the inventory of polypropylene production enterprises was 595,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.39%. The inventory of polypropylene traders was 213,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.13%. The increase in inventory was mainly due to the accumulation during the National Day holiday and the failure to meet the peak - season demand expectations [41] 3. Market Outlook PE - In November 2025, the new Guangxi Petrochemical device of polyethylene will put pressure on the domestic supply, and there is an expectation of an increase in imports. The demand for northern greenhouse films will decrease with the cold weather, and the demand for packaging films will return to normal. The overall situation of polyethylene in the fourth quarter is oversupply [7][45] PP - In November 2025, the demand for polypropylene will continue to improve. The decrease in import arrivals and the decline in production will relieve the supply pressure, and the inventory will continue to be depleted. The demand in various industries will increase due to Double 11, Double 12, and Christmas orders, and the terminal consumption may reach a new high this year. The market supply and demand will maintain a tight balance, and the price is expected to stop falling and have a weak rebound [7][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices reached a record high this week and then declined. Although the long - term demand outlook for copper is optimistic due to factors such as tight copper concentrate supply and increasing demand from computing power construction, short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract of Shanghai Copper operating in the range of 85,000 - 89,000. It is recommended to exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. - Aluminum prices are in a high - level upward oscillation. However, as the rainy season in Guinea ends and alumina prices weaken, there is downward pressure on ore prices. The operating capacity of alumina has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits at high levels for aluminum - related products [2]. - Zinc prices are in a relatively strong oscillation. Although the processing fees of zinc ore have decreased, the production enthusiasm of smelters is high, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain at a high level. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will maintain an oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 23,000, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [2]. - Lead prices are in a sideways oscillation. Supply is decreasing, but downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices. Considering the strong production and consumption demand and the temporary truce in the Sino - US trade war, lead prices may continue to rise after consolidation. It is recommended to go long at low levels within the range of 17,100 - 17,800 [2]. - Nickel prices are in an intra - range oscillation and decline. The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market remains in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai Nickel operating in the range of 119,000 - 123,000; for stainless steel, it is also recommended to hold short positions at high levels, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,400 - 12,900 [3]. - Tin prices are in a high - level oscillation and overall upward trend. Although tin ore supply is expected to improve, downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai Tin 12 contract being 275,000 - 295,000, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. - Industrial silicon prices are in an oscillatory adjustment. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products such as polysilicon and organic silicon have changed. It is recommended to conduct range trading or wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the polysilicon storage platform and production reduction [3]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and downstream demand is strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining certificates in Yichun and the resumption of production of the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - From October 27th to November 2nd, important economic data were released. China's industrial enterprise profits in September increased by 21.6% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showed good growth. The Sino - US leaders held a meeting, and the Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus on tariff and export control measures. China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the eurozone's GDP in the third quarter increased by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding expectations. The US Senate passed a resolution to terminate Trump's comprehensive tariff policy, but it is expected to face difficulties in the House of Representatives [11][12][13][14][15][16][17]. 3.2 Copper - Price trend: Reached a record high and then declined, expected to be in a high - level oscillation in the short term [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply of copper concentrate is tight, but short - term high prices are suppressing downstream demand, and inventory is accumulating [2]. - Investment advice: Exit long positions at high levels or conduct short - term trading within the range [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - Price trend: High - level upward oscillation, with the oscillation range broken through [46]. - Fundamental factors: The rainy season in Guinea ends, alumina prices weaken, the operating capacity of alumina decreases, and the inventory increases. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases slightly, and downstream demand is affected by the transition from peak to off - peak season [2]. - Investment advice: Reduce positions and take profits at high levels [2]. 3.4 Zinc - Price trend: Relatively strong oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Zinc ore processing fees have decreased, smelter production enthusiasm is high, terminal consumption is weak, and inventory is at a high level [2]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [2]. 3.5 Lead - Price trend: Sideways oscillation [2]. - Fundamental factors: Supply is decreasing, downstream procurement is cautious due to high prices, but production and consumption demand are strong [2]. - Investment advice: Go long at low levels within the range [2]. 3.6 Nickel - Price trend: Intra - range oscillation and decline [3]. - Fundamental factors: The cost of the nickel industry is relatively stable, but the nickel market is in a surplus situation, with continuous inventory accumulation [3]. - Investment advice: Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 3.7 Tin - Price trend: High - level oscillation and overall upward trend [3]. - Fundamental factors: Tin ore supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumption is weak [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - Price trend: Oscillatory adjustment [3]. - Fundamental factors: The production and inventory of industrial silicon and related products have changed, and the production of polysilicon is expected to decrease in November [3]. - Investment advice: Conduct range trading or wait and see [3]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - Price trend: Wide - range oscillation [3]. - Fundamental factors: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, downstream demand is strong, and there are uncertainties in mining certificates [3]. - Investment advice: Trade cautiously [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Copper - After interest rate cuts and tariff implementation, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next key macro events are the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm and China - US tariff situation. - The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price floor. If by - product prices like sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is price - aversion sentiment, there is still significant procurement after price drops. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price floor, but short - term sharp increases may suppress demand. Pay attention to marginal changes in demand and US tariff conditions, with the main support level at 86,000 - 86,500 [2]. Aluminum - In October, the alumina futures price was under pressure, and it is expected to remain weakly volatile in November with limited rebound space. The market should focus on whether large - scale production cuts will occur if prices continue to fall. - In October, the electrolytic aluminum market was strong. In November, the Shanghai aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile with limited upside. Although high prices may suppress downstream procurement, the overall macro environment is positive. However, domestic supply is under pressure due to high operating capacity and expected import arrivals, and downstream demand is not strong enough [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In October, the casting aluminum alloy futures followed the aluminum price and strengthened. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, squeezing enterprise profits. In November, the ADC12 price is expected to remain strong and volatile, with an operating range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to scrap aluminum supply, downstream demand, and policy implementation [6]. Zinc - The supply - loosening logic has spread from the zinc ore end to the zinc ingot end. Supply growth may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. Demand has no unexpected performance, but the low overseas inventory creates a risk of a short squeeze on LME, supporting the zinc price. The domestic zinc ingot supply is relatively loose, and export windows are intermittently open. In the short - term, the zinc price will be volatile and strong, but the fundamentals may limit its upward movement. It is expected to remain range - bound between 22,000 - 23,000 [11]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply may be limited this year. Demand is weak, and although some consumption is driven by AI and photovoltaics, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. In the short - term, the tin price may fall due to the Fed's hawkish stance. If the supply from Myanmar recovers well, the price may weaken; otherwise, it will remain strong [13]. Nickel - The nickel market is range - bound with no clear one - way trend. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the demand for stainless steel is weak, while the demand for ternary materials has inventory - building needs but may not be sustainable. The market should pay attention to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia. The price is expected to be range - bound between 118,000 - 126,000 [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is volatile, with supply pressure and insufficient demand improvement. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of ferronickel is under pressure. The chromium iron market is weakly stable. The supply of 300 - series stainless steel remains high, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. In the short - term, the price is expected to be range - bound between 12,500 - 13,000 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures were strong, but the market was affected by supply - side news. The fundamentals are currently strong, with a slight decrease in weekly production and an unexpected improvement in downstream demand. In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited, and the price is expected to be widely volatile between 78,000 - 87,000 [20]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.56% to 87,570 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 10.31% to 3,966 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss improved by 89.84 yuan/ton to - 793 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a decrease of 2.62% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, an increase of 26.50% from the previous month [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.38% to 21,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 44.7 yuan/ton to - 2,471 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.01 to 7.45 [4]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, an increase of 2.39% from the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, an increase of 3.52% from the previous month. In September, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 2.90 million tons, an increase of 13.07% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM Southwest ADC12 price increased by 0.47% to 21,400 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 95 yuan/ton to - 145 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, an increase of 7.48% from the previous month, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, an increase of 4.43% from the previous month [6]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.13% to 22,280 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 483.90 yuan/ton to - 4,273 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, an increase of 2.85% from the previous month. In September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a decrease of 11.61% from the previous month [11]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.14% to 284,400 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 247.83% to 40 US dollars/ton. - The import profit and loss decreased by 1.75% to - 15,516.50 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread decreased by 7.14% to - 600 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8,714 tons, a decrease of 15.13% from the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71% from the previous month [13]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.20% to 121,950 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,550 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss improved by 7.21% to - 1,429 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In October, the Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26% from the previous month. The refined nickel import volume in the relevant period decreased by 3.00% [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.39% to 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 monthly spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production in 43 factories was 176.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.99% from the previous month, and the stainless steel export volume was 41.85 million tons, a decrease of 6.55% from the previous month [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.69% to 80,220 yuan/ton, and the SMM electric - carbon - industrial - carbon price difference remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton. - The basis (based on SMM electric carbon) increased by 167.93% to 1,250 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 monthly spread remained unchanged at - 1,420 yuan/ton [20]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, an increase of 5.73% from the previous month, and the lithium carbonate demand in September was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28% from the previous month [20].