Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the China Financial Futures Exchange hosted the 2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum, highlighting the resilience of China's exports due to the irreplaceability of high-end products and transshipment trade [1] - Liu Yuanchun emphasized that 2025 will be a complex year influenced by uncertainties from U.S. policies, technological innovation, real estate stabilization, and a package of incremental policy effects [1] - Despite increased external policy uncertainties, China's economy shows significant elasticity and resilience, with March and April export growth exceeding expectations, particularly to non-U.S. countries [1] Group 2 - The resilience of the RMB exchange rate is noted amidst trade policy uncertainties, while the U.S. dollar index has weakened, potentially due to changes in global capital flows and the restructuring of global capital order [2] - Concerns over the unsustainability of U.S. debt have led to rising yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds, which is a contributing factor to the dollar's weakness [2] - The current U.S. government's initiatives aim to reconstruct the manufacturing base, financial system, and global economic governance logic, with tariff policies being just the beginning of deeper challenges in the financial sector [2]

▲ATFX图 走势结构角度看，日线级别，美元指数处于中长期空头趋势之中，最新波段是下跌波段。市价运行于前 一个反弹波段的0.618分位处，有可能形成短期支撑。如果中长期趋势顺利延续，年内低点97.88是重要 点位，一旦被突破，则下跌空间打开。中期来看，96.29和95.32分别为前一个反弹波段的1.382、1.618分 位，均具有较强支撑性，可以作为突破年内低点后的目标价位。 需要提醒的是，从波浪理论角度看，美元指数的空头趋势已经出现了三轮驱动浪下跌，中期跌势可能已 经结束。如果下破年内低点失败，美元指数有可能在底部形成震荡走势，100整数关口有望成为震荡中 枢。 ATFX风险提示、免责条款、特别声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。以上内容仅代表分析师个人观点， 不构成任何操作建议。请勿将本报告视为唯一参考依据。在不同时期，分析师的观点可能发生变化，更 新内容不会另行通知。 ATFX汇市：英国、德国、法国、欧元区、美国等，今日扎堆公布制造业PMI数据。前值来看，英国、 德国、法国、欧元区、美国的制造业PMI分别为45.4、48.4、48.7、49.0、50.2，荣枯线标准为50.0，欧 元区国家均处于收缩状态，只有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The French services sector PMI has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, indicating ongoing economic challenges in France despite some improvements in manufacturing [1] Group 1: Services Sector - The preliminary services PMI in France dropped from 47.3 in April to 47.4 in May, remaining below the neutral line for nine months [1] - The overall composite PMI also stayed below the neutral line for nine consecutive months, reflecting a bleak outlook for the private sector [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI preliminary value increased to 49.5 in May, up from 48.7 in April, suggesting some improvement in this sector [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The economic challenges are attributed to domestic political instability and a fragile macroeconomic environment [1] - Despite efforts by President Macron to position France as an attractive destination for investment and R&D, the overall business outlook remains dim, particularly in the services sector [1]

21 May 2025 | 4:15PM EDT Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts Download PDF | Download PowerPoint To subscribe to Macro at a Glance, visit the page and click "Follow." Changes to flag this week: Watching Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Allison Nathan +1(212)357-7504 | allison.nathan@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 国内目前供需形势，4 月底商业库存只有 415 万吨，工业库存 95 万吨， 按照后面每月 65 万吨消费的话，到了 8 月底商业库存只有 155 万吨， 去年同期是 214 万吨，23 年炒作商业库存偏紧的年份是 163 万吨，显 然今年比 23 年还紧张（紧张的原因，配额、进口棉少了，月消费量并 不低，新疆上了很多产能），今年现货基差一直偏强就是这个原因，棉 花基本面供应是偏紧的，涨跌还得看基本面形势，这是本年度的供应形 势，09 合约偏强，短中期上涨意愿概率大。但是到了 01 合约，新棉， 目前新疆种植面积或有所扩大，新疆新开垦的地 200 万亩，去年种植 番茄其他作物，应该都改种棉花，所以预计新棉丰产至 750 万吨，新 年度供应或宽松了些，因此棉价涨幅受到限制。目前短中期棉价上涨高 度 14000-14100，中美贸易战缓和，5、6 月国内会抢出口的，6 月 30 日美国国债到期不会出现幺蛾子，是中美蜜月期，所以后面认为还会上 涨，但是到了 7、8 月份要谨慎，主要是原因是，此时又怕中美谈判不 顺，会反复，届时会价格会有回落。就目前来看，远期国内丰产缓解紧 ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 22 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

相关链接 期货热点追踪 铜价在美元走弱和美国债务问题的背景下小幅上涨，分析师表示，如果宏观经济短期内没有出现重大的 负面意外，铜价的目标是…… ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：关税并非纠正贸易逆差背后宏观经济失衡的适当手段。 ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：部分国家存在不可持续的宏观经济失衡，导致贸易逆差。 ...

Core Viewpoint - TJX Companies reported first-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations in terms of sales and earnings, but the company's guidance for future performance has led to a decline in stock price [1][3][6] Financial Performance - TJX posted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.92 on revenue of $13.11 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $0.91 EPS on $13.03 billion in sales [3] - Revenue increased by 5% year over year, while EPS declined by approximately 1% compared to the same quarter last year [4] Same-Store Sales - Same-store sales (comps) rose by 3% year over year during the first quarter, with management indicating solid momentum for the second quarter [4] Future Guidance - For the second quarter, TJX expects same-store sales to increase between 2% and 3%, with a projected pretax net income margin of 10.4% to 10.5%, down from 10.9% in the same quarter last year [5] - Full-year same-store sales are also expected to rise between 2% and 3%, with a pretax profit margin projected between 11.3% and 11.4%, down from 11.5% last year; EPS is anticipated to be between $4.34 and $4.43 [5] Analyst Expectations - The company's earnings guidance suggests annual growth between 2% and 4%, which is below the average analyst expectation of $4.49 EPS for the year [6]