1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - The supply of industrial silicon last week was 71,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.41%. Demand was 60,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20%. Demand remained sluggish. The cost support increased during the dry season. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,275 - 8,465 [6]. - The overall fundamental situation is bearish, but there are positive factors such as rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production. Negative factors include the slow recovery of demand after the holiday and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [13][14]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon production last week was 20,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. The scheduled production in February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.93%. The overall demand shows a continuous decline. The cost support remains stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,075 - 50,285 [8][11]. - The fundamental situation is bearish, but there are positive factors such as the net long position of the main contract (with a decrease in long positions) and the spot price premium over the futures price [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 71,000 tons, down 13.41% week - on - week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 60,000 tons, down 20% week - on - week. The inventory and profit status of downstream products vary: polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level; organic silicon inventory is at a low level with a production profit of 2,570 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02%, flat week - on - week and lower than the historical average; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On February 11, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 830 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 562,000 tons, up 1.44% week - on - week; sample enterprise inventory was 206,000 tons, down 1.43% week - on - week; major port inventory was 136,000 tons, down 1.44% week - on - week [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level. Demand recovery is emerging. Cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,275 - 8,465 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 20,100 tons, down 0.49% week - on - week. The scheduled production in February is 79,700 tons, down 20.93% month - on - month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, down 11.65% week - on - week, with an inventory of 283,200 tons, up 3.77% week - on - week, and the production is currently in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows a downward trend, but battery cells and components are currently in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average production cost of N - type polysilicon is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,920 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On February 11, the price of N - type dense material was 52,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 4,470 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [11]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 341,000 tons, up 2.40% week - on - week, at a neutral level compared to the historical average [11]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling continues to decrease, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,075 - 50,285 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The report provides the price, change, and inventory data of various industrial silicon contracts and spot products, including different grades of silicon in East China, contract prices from 01 to 12, and various inventory data such as social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory [17]. Polysilicon - It presents the price, change, and inventory data of polysilicon contracts, as well as the price, production, and inventory data of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - The report also includes multiple charts and data on the price, production, inventory, and cost of industrial silicon and its downstream products (organic silicon, aluminum alloy, polysilicon, etc.). These charts show the historical trends and current situations of various indicators, providing a comprehensive reference for analyzing the market situation of industrial silicon and related industries [21][24][27] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな女' [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな☆' and 'ななな' [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined, represented by 'ななな' [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined, represented by '文文文' [1] - Zinc: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な☆☆' [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not clearly defined, represented by '立☆☆' [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な女女' [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined, represented by 'ななな' [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな☆' [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な女女' [1] 2. Core Views - The copper market continues to have a narrow - range shock, and it is advisable to continue the reverse arbitrage idea. The post - holiday seasonal inventory accumulation may first pressure the price and then the price may rise again based on the demand expectations [2]. - The aluminum market has a weak fundamental situation, with inventory performance significantly weaker than in previous years. There is still adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price fluctuations but has weak follow - up ability. The alumina market has a reduced operating capacity and production, but the oversupply prospect remains unchanged [3]. - The zinc market has a short - term structural contradiction, with the external market being strong and the export window about to open, which eases the downward pressure on Shanghai zinc. The market is waiting for the guidance of non - farm data [4]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market has a rebound in nickel prices but weak trading. The social inventory continues to increase, and the market is mainly driven by policy sentiment [7]. - The tin market continues to rebound with the upper resistance at the MA20 moving average. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday supply and consumption trends [8]. - The lithium carbonate market has a rebound but weak trading. The inventory structure has changed, and there is a high inventory in the mid - stream. The short - term uncertainty is high [9]. - The industrial silicon market price weakens after breaking through 8400 yuan/ton. The supply is in a phased contraction, and the demand from downstream industries is expected to decline. The price is expected to continue a weak trend [10]. - The polysilicon market has a slight increase in futures prices with narrowed fluctuations. The production decreases, and the market is expected to have a slight de - stocking. The price is expected to continue an oscillating trend [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper has had a narrow - range shock for three consecutive trading days, and the 0 - 1 month spread has expanded to 440 yuan. It is recommended to follow the reverse arbitrage idea. The post - holiday seasonal inventory accumulation may first pressure the price and then it may rise again based on demand expectations [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum oscillates. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan are - 190 yuan, - 290 yuan, and - 40 yuan respectively. The aluminum bar processing fee is less than 100 yuan. The inventory is significantly weaker than in previous years, and there is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price but has weak follow - up ability. The domestic alumina operating capacity drops to around 9400 yuan, with a phased production decline, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3] Zinc - The SMM zinc average price is 24460 yuan/ton, with a real - time premium of 20 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The spot trading is light. There is a short - term structural contradiction, the external market is strong, and the zinc ingot export window is about to open, which eases the downward pressure on Shanghai zinc. The market is waiting for the guidance of non - farm data [4] Aluminum - The aluminum price is at a low level. The production cuts of primary and recycled aluminum smelters increase, and most downstream enterprises are on holiday. The spot market shows a situation of double - decline in supply and demand. The SMM1 aluminum average price is 16575 yuan/ton, and the discount to the near - month contract narrows to 35 yuan/ton. The overseas aluminum ingots are in surplus, and the import window remains open. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a low level within the price range of 16,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel rebounds, but the market trading is light. The news about the Indonesian quota causes speculation. The social inventory of nickel and stainless steel continues to increase. The market confidence declines, and the transaction is light. The pure nickel inventory increases by 3000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increases by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons. The market is in a pre - festival state, waiting for a clear situation [7] Tin - The Shanghai tin continues to rebound, with the upper resistance at the MA20 moving average. The overseas LME tin inventory continues to increase, and the LME spot discount is 159 US dollars. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday supply trend and peak - season consumption rhythm [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate rebounds, but the market trading is light. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase. The total market inventory decreases by 2000 tons to 105,000 tons. The short - term uncertainty is high [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price weakens after breaking through 8400 yuan/ton. The supply has a phased contraction, but there is a复产 expectation after the festival. The downstream polysilicon is expected to reduce production by more than 20,000 tons, and the organic silicon may reduce the demand for industrial silicon by about 90,000 tons if the emission reduction target is implemented. The December export volume is 59,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8%. The social inventory rises to 562,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8000 tons. The price is expected to continue a weak trend [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rise slightly, and the market fluctuations narrow. The industry's fully - cost - inclusive tax for silicon materials is about 54,125 yuan/ton. The February production decreases by more than 20% month - on - month, and the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease by 3%. The market is expected to have a slight de - stocking. The latest silicon material manufacturer inventory is 341,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons. The price is expected to continue an oscillating trend [11]

Core Viewpoint - The current decline in pork prices is attributed to an oversupply situation, despite an increase in consumption as the Spring Festival approaches [2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The increase in slaughterhouse operating rates has risen to over 40%, but this is still below the expected levels of over 50% typically seen during the Spring Festival [5]. - Overall pork consumption is declining, influenced by changing dietary habits towards healthier options and a more dispersed consumption pattern due to the later timing of the Spring Festival this year [5]. - There is an unexpected increase in the number of pigs being sold ahead of the Spring Festival, contrary to the usual practice of holding back livestock for peak demand [6][8]. Market Sentiment - Despite the current drop in prices, the sentiment among farmers remains optimistic regarding future price increases, as indicated by rising prices for piglets [10]. - The market has experienced a phenomenon where both price increases and decreases occur earlier than expected, driven by emotional responses from market participants [11]. Future Outlook - The expectation is that while there may be a decline in prices post-Spring Festival, the pressure on prices will not be severe due to reduced selling pressure after the holiday [8]. - The market is anticipated to experience a rebound in prices around April or May, as the emotional exuberance among farmers may lead to a premature price increase [11].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Shandong reformed aromatics market is expected to experience a "dual decline" in supply and demand, with an overall oversupply situation persisting, leading to a downward trend in prices for reformed aromatics, which may remain weak in 2026 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The oversupply situation is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, as gasoline consumption peaks and the demand for raw materials in the market declines. The capacity utilization rate for reformed aromatics is projected to be 31.85%, down 8.58 percentage points year-on-year, with a production volume of 2.4841 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.24% [2] - The demand for reformed aromatics is anticipated to continue declining in 2025, with a projected demand of 2.45 million tons, representing a nearly 25% year-on-year decrease. This decline is attributed to the strong substitutability of the raw materials and a decrease in gasoline production from independent refineries in Shandong [2] Seasonal Demand Characteristics - The demand for reformed aromatics aligns closely with gasoline consumption patterns, which have shown weakened seasonal characteristics in recent years. Traditional peak seasons around the Spring Festival and from May to October have not resulted in significant price movements for reformed aromatics [3] Price Trends and Seasonal Index - The price of reformed aromatics is expected to fluctuate in five distinct phases throughout 2025: 1. January to February: Prices are expected to rise due to pre-holiday stocking and stable demand [6] 2. March to May: Prices are projected to decline as gasoline consumption falls short of expectations, leading to a weak demand for raw materials [6] 3. June: Prices may rise due to fluctuations in international oil prices, although demand remains generally weak [6] 4. July to October: Prices are expected to decline, with weak gasoline demand and a lack of traditional peak season characteristics [7] 5. November to December: Prices may stabilize with overall steady demand, leading to a slight upward trend [7] Future Market Predictions - In 2026, no new production facilities for reformed aromatics are planned, leading to limited fluctuations in supply. The overall refining capacity in China may decline year-on-year, with a projected decrease in gasoline output, further exacerbating the oversupply situation. Consequently, the demand for reformed aromatics is expected to continue its downward trend, with prices likely to experience a range-bound fluctuation [9]

Report Date - The report is dated February 10, 2026 [1] Steel Report Core View - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level, while the production of electric furnaces has significantly decreased seasonally due to the Spring Festival. Terminal demand has further shrunk, with transactions showing a situation of "prices but no market". Inventory has continued to accumulate, with the accumulation rate of rebar accelerating year-on-year, and hot-rolled coils having shifted from destocking to stockpiling. The significant increase in hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts has exerted upward pressure on coil prices. Overall, finished steel products are oscillating weakly and may test the lower limit of the box-shaped oscillation [3]. Price Data - Rebar: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,133 yuan/ton, 3,052 yuan/ton, and 3,097 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Hot-rolled coils: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,263 yuan/ton, 3,220 yuan/ton, and 3,239 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Spread Data - Rebar spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 81 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was -45 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was -36 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026 [4]. - Hot-rolled coil spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 43 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was -19 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was -24 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026 [4]. Iron Ore Report Core View - The supply and demand situation is significantly weak. Overseas shipments have seasonally decreased, and attention should be paid to the impact of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere on Australian shipments. Steel mills have decent profits, and molten iron production is expected to steadily increase. Terminal steel consumption has entered the pre - holiday off - season. The accumulation rate of social inventory is slower than in previous years, and port inventory has continued to accumulate above the seasonal level, facing significant pressure. Market risk appetite is low, and prices are under pressure [21]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 732 yuan/ton, 761.5 yuan/ton, and 744 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, and 1 yuan/ton respectively, and the weekly changes were -17, -16, and -16 yuan/ton respectively [22]. Fundamental Data - On February 6, 2026, the average daily molten iron production was 228.58 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 341.08 tons, and the global shipment volume was 2,535.3 tons [26]. Coking Coal and Coke Report Core View - As the Chinese New Year approaches, domestic mines have reduced production, and the supply of coking coal has seasonally shrunk. The domestic and foreign prices of imported coal are inverted, and the arrival volume is at a low level. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and coking profits have improved. The resumption of production of blast furnace steel mills has been slow, and the short - term supply and demand are relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival. There may be a supply - demand mismatch under the background of tight seaborne coal imports [33]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was -175 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was -77.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 252.5 yuan/ton [34][36]. - On February 10, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coke was -94 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was -74.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 168.5 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy Report Core View - Cost support and the pressure of the downstream terminal steel inventory accumulation are in a game. Silicon manganese is facing its own high - inventory pressure, and the manganese ore quotation provides bottom support. Ferroalloy production is already at a low level, and it is difficult to see a significant reduction in production. The resumption of production of steel mills may drive an increase in molten iron, but the demand increase is limited due to the off - season inventory accumulation of terminal steel products. The decline in finished steel products suppresses prices, and in the short term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [48]. Price Data - For silicon iron on February 9, 2026, the basis in Ningxia was 26 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5,370 yuan/ton, 5,390 yuan/ton, 5,300 yuan/ton, 5,400 yuan/ton, and 5,400 yuan/ton respectively [49]. - For silicon manganese on February 10, 2026, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 182 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5,570 yuan/ton, 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,700 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, and 5,700 yuan/ton respectively [50][53]. Soda Ash Report Core View - There is an expectation of weakening rigid demand, and soda ash is oscillating weakly, with industrial contradictions still accumulating. If the futures price rises, there is a certain restocking space for middle - stream players such as those involved in futures - cash arbitrage, but the demand elasticity is limited due to the general demand situation. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In terms of supply and demand, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the expectation of high - level long - term supply of soda ash remains unchanged. The inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, the daily melting volume is temporarily stable, and the overall rigid demand is moderately weak. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. Soda ash exports remain at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to a certain extent [68]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash were 1,171 yuan/ton, 1,234 yuan/ton, and 1,282 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were -10 yuan/ton, -9 yuan/ton, and -4 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily decline rates were -0.85%, -0.72%, and -0.31% respectively [69]. Glass Report Core View - According to market news, due to environmental protection pressure, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe may undergo cold repair before the Spring Festival, with a total daily melting volume of 2,700 tons. There may be more definite news in the next few days. Coupled with the 1,200 - ton cold repair of Dongtai Zhongbo last week and the expectation of 1,000 - ton cold repair of Deyang Xinyi before the Spring Festival, it means that float glass will experience concentrated cold repair before the Spring Festival, slightly exceeding expectations. The daily melting volume will decline to around 146,000 - 147,000 tons. Although there are many new production lines to be ignited in the Shahe area, even the earliest ones will not be implemented until after the Spring Festival, and it will take several months to produce products. This wave of pre - Spring Festival concentrated cold repair will help relieve the inventory accumulation pressure and spot price pressure after the Spring Festival. In terms of supply and demand, float glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Regardless of how the supply expectation changes, the high inventory of the glass middle - stream is a risk point. Currently, it seems that the terminal may not be able to digest it, so once a negative feedback occurs, the spot price pressure will be significant [91]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass were 1,087 yuan/ton, 1,189 yuan/ton, and 1,224 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 23 yuan/ton, 19 yuan/ton, and -9 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily increase/decrease rates were 2.16%, 1.62%, and -0.73% respectively [92].

（钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： 周一油价重心继续上移，其中WTI 3月合约收盘上涨0.81美元至64.36美元/桶，涨幅1.27%。布伦特4月合 约收盘上涨0.99美元至69.04美元/桶，涨幅1.45%。SC2604以475.2元/桶收盘，上涨9.2元/桶，涨幅 1.97%。美国向途经霍尔木兹海峡的商船发布最新指南。据美国交通部海事管理局发布的指导意见，该 机构建议"悬挂美国国旗的商船尽可能远离伊朗领海，并在被伊朗军队要求登船时口头拒绝，如果伊朗 军队登船，船员不应强行抵抗"。OPEC1月石油产量下降，抵消了包括委内瑞拉在内的部分成员国产量 增幅--此前美国抓获马杜罗、石油封锁结束。调查显示OPEC1月原油产量为2834万桶/日，较12月减少6 万桶/日，其中尼日利亚降幅最大。欧盟提议将对俄罗斯的制裁扩大到格鲁吉亚和印尼处理俄罗斯石油 的港口，这是欧盟首次将目标对准第三国的港口。这份提案显示，将把格鲁吉亚的库列维Kulevi和印尼 的卡里蒙Karimun列入制裁名单，禁止欧盟公司和个人与这两 ...

Group 1: Natural Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price increased to 16,100 CNY/ton, up by 200 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - Thai 20 mixed rubber price rose to 15,200 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day [4] - As of February 8, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade reached 606,800 tons, an increase of 15,100 tons, or 2.55% [4][31] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 89.5%, while Asia's industry load rose by 0.8 percentage points to 82.4%, indicating a stable supply [5][32] - Demand from downstream PTA facilities is expected to decrease due to planned maintenance, leading to a shift towards a looser supply-demand balance in February and March [5][32] - The Brent crude oil price has risen due to geopolitical risks, which may provide support for PX prices in the second quarter [5][32] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load increased by 1.0 percentage points to 77.6%, but remains below historical levels [6][33] - Demand from terminal enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is declining, with operating rates expected to drop to annual lows by mid-February [6][33] - The anticipated adjustment of U.S. tariff exemptions for Bangladeshi textiles may lead to increased investment by Chinese textile manufacturers in Bangladesh [6][33] Group 4: EG Market - Ethylene glycol industry load increased by 1.7 percentage points to 76.1%, but the supply remains adequate despite a decrease in import volumes [8][35] - February is expected to see significant inventory pressure, but a potential improvement is anticipated in March [8][35] - Current prices are not sufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts, indicating limited upward momentum [8][35] Group 5: PR Market - The bottle-grade PET industry load remained stable at 66.1%, with ongoing production cuts supporting a tightening supply [10][39] - The demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, with limited room for production recovery in February [10][39] - Supply-side reductions are expected to drive inventory depletion and support processing fees [10][39] Group 6: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures experienced a slight decline, with stable spot prices [13][40] - Recent production has decreased by 0.9 million tons to 774,000 tons, while downstream demand has slightly weakened [13][40] - The market sentiment is turning weaker due to increased supply and reduced demand [13][40] Group 7: Glass Market - Glass futures saw a slight increase, with stable spot prices [15][42] - Recent glass production has decreased, while inventory has slightly increased by 25,000 tons to 2.653 million tons [15][42] - The construction sector is facing challenges, with a year-on-year decline in housing completion area [15][42] Group 8: Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda futures increased by 75 CNY/ton to 1,937 CNY/ton [16][50] - The market is experiencing steady prices for 32% and 50% caustic soda, with some slight declines in specific areas [16][50] - Demand remains subdued, leading to a stable but slightly declining market price [16][50] Group 9: PVC Market - PVC futures decreased by 103 CNY/ton to 5,052 CNY/ton, with ongoing supply pressure [19][46] - The market is facing a reality versus expectation battle, with high operating rates contributing to supply pressure [19][46] - Short-term improvements are limited, but optimistic expectations remain due to potential policy changes [19][46]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - The report highlights that the online demand for Moutai has shown strong explosive growth, supporting the price stability of Moutai. Additionally, some inventory replenishment demand has amplified the price fluctuations of Moutai. On the supply side, changes in the delivery rhythm have also caused certain disturbances to Moutai's wholesale prices [2][7] Summary by Sections Moutai Price Fluctuations - Since the beginning of 2026, Moutai's wholesale prices have experienced volatility. The price of original Moutai bottles dropped to around 1505 CNY per bottle at the start of 2026 but subsequently broke through the 1600 CNY and 1700 CNY thresholds by the end of January. As of February 5, 2026, the price rose to 1660 CNY per bottle [6][17] - For bulk Moutai, the price initially fell to 1490 CNY per bottle, then rose to 1650 CNY by the end of January, before dropping to 1570 CNY in early February, and finally rebounding to 1610 CNY by February 5 [6][17] Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand: The "i Moutai" app had over 15.31 million active users in January 2026, with more than 1.45 million users purchasing desired products, resulting in over 2.12 million transactions. The explosive online demand has supported Moutai's strong price performance. Additionally, some channel replenishment and purchasing demand have further increased price volatility [7][18] - Supply: During the Spring Festival peak season, demand is favorable, but the overall supply of Moutai is tight, with limited channel inventory. Some regions have applied for additional quotas, and certain distributors have begun selling March quotas for Moutai [7][18] Short-term and Long-term Price Outlook - In the short term, Moutai is expected to achieve a narrow bottom fluctuation as supply is gradually controlled, and demand is recovering. The acceleration of pre-holiday supply will help control prices post-holiday. In the long term, Moutai's price fluctuations will be determined by economic growth and supply growth factors [8][21] - The report emphasizes that Moutai's price fluctuations are fundamentally driven by supply and demand relationships. Demand is closely related to residents' income and consumer confidence, while supply is influenced by Moutai's pricing strategy. Since 2009, the number of Moutai bottles that urban residents can purchase monthly has fluctuated around a historical average of 2 bottles [8][22]

目录 LPG液化气周报：重点关注美伊谈判 研究员：赵若晨 期货从业证号：F03151390 投资咨询证号：Z0023496 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 87/87/87 【策略】 单边：宽幅震荡。 套利：观望。 期权：观望。(观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据) 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周液化气在前期一波下跌后区间震荡。海外市场来看，中东货源仍然持续偏紧，3月沙特CP价格再次上行，叠加伊 朗局势的不明朗，中东价格仍然居高不下。欧美方面，寒潮导致美国丙烷持续去库，前期价格在天然气的带领下驱动上 行，但供应充足。国内方面，供应端虽到港量偏少，但是炼厂外放气增加；需求端，燃烧需求仍在旺季，但化工需求方 面偏弱，由于进口价格较高，利润较差，PDH开工率较历史同期低位。 后市来看，炼厂外放气或有小幅下降， ...

Market Overview - From late January to early February, significant global events disrupted asset pricing, leading to fluctuations in gold and silver prices, and a notable decline of 2.48% in the Shanghai Composite Index on February 2[20] - The domestic bond market saw a window for growth, with the yield on 30-year government bonds decreasing by 4 basis points (bp) to 2.22%[20] Bond Market Characteristics - The current bond market is characterized by three main features: a decline in risk appetite, ample liquidity, and favorable supply-demand dynamics[2] - Risk appetite has weakened, with the performance of risk assets declining compared to mid-December to mid-January, leading to a shift of funds back to fixed income[2] - Despite an increase in bond supply in February, demand remains strong, with government bonds seeing good subscription rates and a high coverage ratio of over 12 times for some issuances[2] Inflation Concerns - Inflation remains a key concern, with January's Producer Price Index (PPI) expected to show a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.3%, driven by rising commodity prices[3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to rebound significantly in February due to the effects of the Spring Festival, with both year-on-year and month-on-month growth expected to rise[3] Yield Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield is currently stable at around 1.80%, indicating resistance to a systemic decline in interest rates[20] - The yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds has compressed from 48bp to 44bp, driven by buying interest from funds and smaller banks[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy shifts that could impact market stability[5]