Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with various factors influencing different commodities. Geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic conditions are the main drivers of price movements. For example, geopolitical conflicts often provide short - term price support, but in the long run, supply - demand fundamentals play a dominant role [1][21]. - Many commodities are in a state of supply - demand adjustment, with some facing oversupply (e.g., alumina), while others have potential supply shortages (e.g., nickel in the future). Market sentiment and expectations also have a significant impact on prices, such as the impact of减产 expectations on polycrystalline silicon [5][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Due to attacks on Russian ports and slow repairs, Kazakhstan's December CPC crude exports will hit a 14 - month low. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling. Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term price rebounds, but the long - term trend is towards a lower price center due to loose supply [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil rose sharply, mainly driven by geopolitical news. However, in the medium term, supply is abundant. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak as supply increases [20]. - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is marginally loose. Geopolitical conflicts boost prices from the cost side, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured pattern due to supply - demand [21]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, domestic precious metals are strong. Volatility is high in the short term [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Domestic spot supply - demand gives copper price adjustment pressure, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals have limited contradictions. It follows the rise of other metals, and long positions can be held with the 40 - day line as support [4]. - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and the price is weak until significant production cuts occur [5]. - **Zinc**: The bottom support is strong, and the price range is expected to be 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton in January [7]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton under the game of cost and consumption [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Policy news has a major impact. Wait for market disturbances to end and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the MA10 moving average. There are risks at high levels, and it is recommended to configure out - of - the - money put options for spring contracts [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong [11]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene supply is loose, and the prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are under downward pressure [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may run in a low - level range, and caustic soda is expected to have limited upward space [27]. - **PX & PTA**: PX has a strong expected pattern, and PTA's upward drive comes from PX. Keep a long - term long - allocation idea [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It oscillates at a low price, and the supply - demand may improve in the second quarter [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The trading logic returns to concerns about US soybean exports and South American production expectations. Soybean meal will follow the trend of US soybeans [34]. - **Vegetable Oils**: The macro - sentiment is improving, and the fundamentals of palm oil are less bearish. Pay attention to South American crop weather [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed is in excess globally. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds in the medium term and a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [36]. - **Corn**: The futures contract may oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [38]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of the main contract is expected to be weak in the first half of next year [39]. - **Eggs**: Take a long - term long - position view, but beware of rapid price increases due to capital front - running [40]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is supported by factors such as fast sales and low commercial inventory. Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price rebound may be limited [42]. - **Apples**: The market is bearish, and a short - position strategy is recommended [43]. Others - **Industrial Silicon**: Driven by the expectation of concentrated production cuts in the North, the futures price may maintain an oscillating pattern [13]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply pressure is gradually relieved, but the downstream demand is still weak. The market may continue to oscillate [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the demand has some resilience. The prices are likely to oscillate [15][16]. - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [17][18]. - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The spot price has risen, but there may be price fluctuations in the future. Pay attention to shipping companies' strategies during the Spring Festival [19]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the market is strongly oscillating [22]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, the price may oscillate weakly in a range, and a long - position strategy for the 5 - 9 spread can be considered in the long term [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates at the bottom. Consider a long - position strategy for the month - spread in the medium term [24]. - **Styrene**: The supply pressure is difficult to reverse, and the market purchases are mainly for rigid demand [25]. - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term upward space is limited, and the port inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is rising, and the index futures are also up. Pay attention to the relationship between the US dollar, precious metals, and domestic policies [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to become steeper [47].

钢材淡季延续去库，钢⼚复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，炉料下⽅存在 ⽀撑。但热卷库存压⼒尚存，下游补库意愿偏低，铁矿港⼝库存累 积，煤焦产业链库存增加，基本⾯乏善可陈，盘⾯表现承压。 钢材淡季延续去库，钢厂复产叠加冬储补库预期仍存，炉料下方存在 支撑。但热卷库存压力尚存，下游补库意愿偏低，铁矿港口库存累 积，煤焦产业链库存增加，基本面乏善可陈，盘面表现承压。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水基本持稳，港口库存大幅累积，钢厂少量补 库，上下游博弈较强，短期矿价预计震荡运行。废钢供弱需稳，钢厂 去库，基本面边际转强，短期电炉利润尚可，短流程钢企废钢需求仍 有支撑，预计现货价格震荡。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端已有企稳迹象，且进入一月后钢厂有复 产预期，随着中下游冬储补库逐渐开启，焦炭供需结构或将逐渐变 紧，基本面对价格支撑仍在，盘面预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关 将近，冬储力度逐渐加大，且进入一月后进口压力将有所缓解，焦煤 基本面将延续边际改善，盘面估值仍拥有修复空间。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-26 现实端压⼒尚存，盘⾯表现承压 3. 合金方面：锰硅供需宽 ...

芳烃市场周报： 成本支撑，PX表现偏强 （PX，纯苯，苯乙烯） 姜周曦琳 F03114700 Z0022394 金融研究院 2025年12月25日 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 近期PX市场 数据来源：WIND、钢联、隆众数据、弘业期货金融研究院 • 成本：国际油价反弹，PX外盘价格连续上行，近期期现货价格偏强。中石化12月PX挂牌价格小幅上调至7000元/吨，11月中石化PX结算价格 6840元/吨。截止到12月24日，亚洲PX收于901美元/吨，较三季度末上涨92.17美元/吨，PX和石脑油价差收于360.75美元/吨，较三季度末上涨 143.67美元/吨。 • 供给：本周PX产量为74.82万吨，环比+0%。国内PX周均产能利用率89.21%，环比+0%。中化泉州80万吨PX装置11月25日停机检修，预计检修两 个月。福佳大化一套70万吨PX装置3月下旬停机，仍处于停机状态。PX工厂的生产积极性仍维持较好，海内外开工均处于高位，暂无装置变动。 • 需求：下游PTA周均产能利用率至73.81%，环比持平，同比-8.41%。本周国内装置无新调整。 • 总结与展望：自四季度起，下游需 ...

钯金供应在中期仍然短缺，库存低于多年低位，缓冲能力较弱。另外，俄罗斯占全球矿产供应40%以 上，地缘政治或贸易风险(如美国232调查)等仍将存在。除此之外，钯金ETF持仓量虽然从量级上较铂金 ETF仍有较大差距，但在今年以来被持续增持，显示投资者情绪回暖，随着国内铂钯期货上市，投资热 情有望扩大。低库存+高供应集中度+潜在投资流入，使得钯金成为高波动性博弈产品。若关税落地或 供应链中断，价格短期反弹幅度可能较大，但缺乏长期基本面支撑，不建议重仓持有。 瑞达期货（002961）：钯金价格或加剧高位回落风险 钯期货主力跌近10%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 新湖期货 钯期货不建议重仓持有 瑞达期货 钯金价格或加剧高位回落风险 新湖期货：钯期货不建议重仓持有 12月25日盘中，钯期货主力合约封跌停板。截止发稿，钯主力合约报515.65元，跌幅9.99%。 钯金在汽车催化剂领域的过度集中化，以及新能源汽车的持续普及，使其需求端预期走弱，钯金市场正 逐步由供不应求转向供应过剩，供需格局预期较为宽松，但降息预期所带动的偏多情绪或给予价格一定 支撑，钯金当前偏低的价格可能使其重新成为具备成本优势 ...

光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 光大期货能化商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美元至 | | | | 58.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.64%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.31 美元 | | | | 至 62.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.50%。SC2602 以 442.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 0.6 元/桶，涨幅为 0.14%。受圣诞假期影响，贝克休斯本周提前三 | | | | 天发布钻机数量报告。数据显示，截至 12 月 23 日当周，作为未 | | | | 来产量先行指标的油气钻机总数增加 3 座，至 545 座，但仍较上 | | | | 年同期减少 44 座，降幅为 7.5%。贝克休斯表示，本周美国石油钻 | | | 原油 | 机数增加 3 座，至 409 座；天然气钻井数持平于 127 座。美国商 | 震荡 | | | 务部经济分析局公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国 | | | | GDP 环比按年率计算增长 4.3 ...

近期贵金属市场表现亮眼，白银价格持续刷新历史纪录，黄金价格同步走高，呈现强劲上涨行情。 截至周一生效数据，现货白银价格上涨1.84%至68.3995美元/盎司，现货黄金价格攀升至4383美元/盎司附近，突破10月份4381美元的历史高位，此 前两周已呈稳步上行态势。这波历史性行情背后，是供需格局、资金流向与政策预期的多重作用。 供需失衡与市场流动性紧张，是白银价格领涨的核心动力 10月份市场出现历史性轧空行情后，白银供应紧张局面持续，进一步放大价格上涨动能。交易端数据显示，本月初上海白银期货总成交量大幅攀 升，接近此前供应紧张时期的高位水平，反映出市场对白银的关注度与交易活跃度明显提升。白银需求端持续激增，主要交易中心出现供需错 位，供需缺口对价格上涨形成支撑。 宽松货币政策预期升温，为贵金属市场注入活力 市场对全球主要经济体货币政策宽松的预期不断强化，交易员普遍押注核心经济体明年实施两次降息。对于黄金、白银这类无利息收益资产，宽 松货币环境下持有成本降低，吸引力相应提升。近期公布的系列经济数据未明确经济前景，市场对政策宽松的预期已转化为实际买盘，推动贵金 属价格稳步走高。 大规模资金持续流入，是贵金属价格上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Natural Rubber**: With geopolitical tensions affecting supply in Thailand and domestic产区 entering the off - season, there is support at the bottom of rubber prices. However, due to high production and sales pressure and the seasonal demand slump, the market is weak. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely between 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the supply may increase with the potential output from new projects, and demand is shrinking, so the price is expected to continue to decline with occasional technical rebounds. For glass, the spot price is stable but facing weakening demand in the north and high inventory in the middle - stream, so the futures price may be under pressure and continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda industry still has supply - demand pressure, and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market is affected by high supply, low demand, and cost pressure, and is expected to maintain range - bound trading and then weaken after a rebound [4]. - **Polyolefins**: The market is trading on the expectation of high production in 2026 and weak current conditions. Both PE and PP are facing downward pressure on prices, with the price center expected to decline further [6]. - **Methanol**: Although the port may face inventory accumulation in December, there is an expected shift to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland market is expected to be stable with prices fluctuating slightly [10]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term driving force for pure benzene is weak due to weak downstream demand and cost support, but there is an expectation of improvement after the spring maintenance. Styrene is expected to oscillate between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton due to sufficient supply and weak cost support [13]. - **LPG**: The LPG market shows a pattern of stable prices, inventory reduction, and some improvement in downstream demand. The price is expected to be relatively stable with some fluctuations [15]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, it may continue to be strong unless there is substantial production reduction in the polyester sector. PTA is expected to follow the raw material price with limited independent movement. MEG is expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - fiber prices follow the raw material, and the processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to be compressed [17]. - **Crude Oil**: The market is dominated by geopolitical factors. With high supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the price of Brent crude at $60 per barrel [18]. - **Urea**: The futures price is weak, while the spot price is rising. The Indian tender is beneficial for exports, but high supply and weak demand in the domestic market lead to a difficult price trend. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 1680 - 1730 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned rubber, Thai - standard mixed rubber, etc. have decreased. The basis and inter - contract spreads have also changed. For example, the all - milk basis decreased by 25.93% [1]. - **Production and Supply**: Thailand's production decreased slightly in October, while India's increased. China's production decreased. The opening rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly, and tire production and exports increased in November [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda ash in different regions were mostly stable, with some futures prices decreasing. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, while the melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased slightly, the soda ash factory inventory increased slightly, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the V - basis increased by 2600% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's supply - demand pressure remains, and the PVC industry has high supply and low demand. The opening rates of related industries changed slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory increased while the total social inventory decreased [4]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE, PP futures and spot decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the LP01 spread decreased by 39.39% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: The PE and PP enterprise inventories and social inventories changed, and the device opening rates of PE and PP also changed [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures and spot decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the MA15 spread increased by 23.81% [8]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [9]. - **Production and Supply**: The upstream and downstream opening rates of methanol changed slightly [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures and spot changed slightly, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 0.3% [13]. - **Inventory and Production**: The pure benzene inventory remained unchanged, and the opening rates of related industries decreased [13]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures and spot changed slightly, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.83% [15]. - **Inventory and Production**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio remained stable, the port inventory decreased, and the upstream and downstream opening rates changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as PX and downstream polyester products changed. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed. For example, the PX - naphtha spread increased by 12.4% [17]. - **Inventory and Production**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the opening rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the Brent - WTI spread increased by 3.40% [18]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as RBOB, ULSD, and Gasoil changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [18]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of urea decreased slightly, and the spreads between different contracts changed. The spot price increased [20]. - **Inventory and Production**: The urea production is at a high level, the factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [20].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 周末钢材现货价格弱稳运行，成交表现偏弱，相应的螺纹钢供需两端有所企稳，螺纹供应回升 但依旧是年内低位，给予钢价支撑，持续性有待跟踪。与此同时，螺纹钢需求同样企稳，高频需求 指标有所增加，但仍是近年来同期低位，而下游行业也未好转，需求延续季节性走弱，继而承压钢 价。目前来看， ...

从销售净利率来看，A股部分行业存在费用控制与需求不足并存的现象 。多数行业销售毛利率下降反映出终端需求弱、价格传导不畅的问题，而销售净利率的回升 则得益于期间费用优化，尤其是财务费用和销售费用。从资产周转率和资产负债率来看，A股行业运营效率有所企稳，同时杠杆维持稳健。资产周转率过去一年整 体回落但Q3边际改善，与产能利用率的回升一致。 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 核心观点 我们聚焦2025Q3万得全A的盈利分析，通过杜邦分解和供需格局等视角，寻找上市公司盈利数据背后的宏观线索，以辅助宏观经济的跟踪与研判，可以发现：1） ROE的企稳主要靠销售净利率提升（费用控制）支撑，但销售毛利率持续承压，说明宏观需求偏弱的背景下企业更多依赖"节流"而非"开源"来稳定盈利；此外，从 资产周转率和资产负债率来看，上市公司运营效率有所改善，同时杠杆水平维持稳定。2）我们通过产能利用率与资本开支/折旧摊销来观察行业供需格局，观察到 17个行业中有10个行业处于产能利用率低且资本开支/折旧摊销低的状态，在宏观上意味着多数行 ...

黄金价格失守关键点位，投资窗口再度开启？ 最近，黄金市场的热度再次被推高，国内金价报到每克976元，沪金期货一度冲上982.92元的高点；国际市场上，金价也站稳在每盎司4371.4美元附近，从年 初算起，黄金价格累计上涨已超过60%，市场成交明显放大，多空资金在高位展开激烈拉锯。 上海黄金交易所的报价屏幕上，AU9999黄金价格定格在976元/克，距离"千元关口"仅差一步，期货市场的走势更为剧烈，价格在高位上下反复震荡，全天 成交量突破21万手，大量资金正在这个位置完成换手，有人继续追涨，也有人选择获利离场。 国际市场同样不平静，纽约黄金期货价格收在4371.4美元，单日小幅上涨，美元持续走弱，是推动这一轮上涨的重要原因之一，美元指数较年初已下跌接近 一成，使得以美元计价的黄金显得更具吸引力，这轮行情自2024年延续至今，金价多次刷新历史高点，涨势时间之长，在近年并不多见。 全球规模最大的黄金ETF，持仓量在10月达到高点后开始小幅回落，说明部分机构投资者正在趁高位减仓，从技术图形来看，金价的上涨动能有所减弱，短 期存在调整压力。 支撑金价长期走高的力量，首先来自各国央行持续买入黄金，数据显示，央行已连续13 ...