Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: July 28, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent rise in ferroalloys is due to strong policy expectations and coal price support. Last Friday, influenced by the news of an anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises, both ferroalloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment drive and capital game, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the significant decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which also exerts downward pressure on ferroalloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. The inventory of ferrosilicon is high but starting to gradually reduce, and the inventory reduction rate of ferromanganese is relatively fast. The ferroalloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high [4]. Summary by Relevant Contents Ferroalloy Price and Volatility - Ferrosilicon price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 25.65%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 69.0% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.48%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 28.5% [3] Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, SM: 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, SM: 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [3] Core Contradiction - **Reasons for Rise**: Strong policy expectations and coal price support, and the news of the anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises [4] - **Risks**: High risk of chasing high in the short term, downward pressure from the decline of coking coal futures, and weak fundamental resonance drive [4] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Low operating rate, high but gradually decreasing inventory of ferrosilicon, and relatively fast inventory reduction of ferromanganese [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia production areas increased; enterprise inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week, while warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.73% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 0.29% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.5% week - on - week [8] - **Ferromanganese**: Enterprise inventory decreased by 5.22% week - on - week, warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.85% week - on - week, and total inventory decreased by 3.69% week - on - week; the demand of five major steel products increased by 0.24% week - on - week [9] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises increased by 0.88% week - on - week, and the weekly output increased by 2.3% week - on - week; coking coal prices dropped significantly [9] - **Ferromanganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black sector as a whole is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferromanganese [9] Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 316 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 412 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 388 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions remained stable compared with July 25, 2025, but increased compared with July 21, 2025; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 28 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 54 compared with July 21, 2025 [10] - **Ferromanganese**: On July 28, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was - 364 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 446 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 540 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions had certain changes; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 52 compared with July 25, 2025, and decreased by 1150 compared with July 21, 2025 [11] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data of ferrosilicon market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, as well as seasonal data of ferromanganese market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory are provided, including data from different years and different contracts [12][25][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Macroeconomic sentiment affects commodities, supply - side disturbances are gradually intensifying, and the market is generally strong. - Medium - to long - term: As lithium salt prices gradually rise, corporate profits will increase, and the operating rate is expected to gradually rise in the future. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: In the early third quarter, improved macro sentiment, supply disturbances, and the phenomenon of a non - typical off - season will cause futures prices to fluctuate upward; in the fourth quarter, after technological upgrades are completed and production capacity is released, futures prices will fluctuate downward. [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The closing price of the weighted index contract on Friday was 79,578 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 14.66%. The trading volume was 2.39 million lots, a week - on - week increase of 62.6%. The open interest was 908,100 lots, a week - on - week increase of 247,400 lots. The spread between the LC2509 - LC2511 contracts maintained a back structure. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,996 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,757 lots. [1] 3.1.2 Industry Performance - Supply: This week, the price increase of the mining end intensified, with an average increase of over 19%. The SMM Australian ore 6% CIF was quoted at $860/ton, and African ore was quoted at $801/ton, with an overall increase of over 17%. The price increase in the lithium salt market was smaller than that at the mining end, with lithium carbonate prices rising by about 9% and lithium hydroxide by about 5%. The basis quotes in the trader segment continued to weaken. The weekly operating rate of sample lithium salt factories decreased by 1.96% week - on - week, and lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.54% week - on - week. - Demand: This week, the quotes of downstream material factories were differentiated, with price increases lower than those of lithium salts and lithium ores. The quotes of the lithium iron phosphate system increased by about 4%, and those of the ternary material system increased by about 2%. The quotes of the electrolyte end were stable. The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate remained flat week - on - week, with a slight decrease in production; the production of ternary materials increased week - on - week; the production of lithium manganate decreased slightly, and the production of lithium cobaltate enterprises remained flat week - on - week. - Terminal: The quotes in the battery cell market were stable. This week, battery cell production remained stable. - Inventory: This week, domestic lithium ore inventories decreased week - on - week, lithium carbonate inventories increased by 0.39% week - on - week, the inventories of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased week - on - week, and the inventories of lithium manganate and lithium cobaltate increased week - on - week. [2] 3.1.3 Core Logic - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are all under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is progressing slowly. The medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated. - There are two short - term logics in the current market: In the price decline cycle, the clearing pressure caused by the overcapacity of lithium salts is transmitted upstream to the mining end, and the loosening of ore prices in turn exacerbates the downward inertia of lithium salt prices, forming a negative feedback loop risk of "lithium salt decline - ore price loosening - further lithium salt decline". When the futures rebound is driven by macro expectations and supply - side disturbances, it creates a certain hedging window for lithium salt enterprises, stimulates the release of production enthusiasm, drives the consumption of lithium ore, and promotes the rise of lithium ore prices, forming a step - by - step upward chain of "futures rise - capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price follow - up". As lithium salt prices rise, corporate profits gradually increase, the operating rate will gradually increase in the future, and finally return to the fundamental situation of demand - based pricing. - Enterprises are continuously optimizing the production process through production line technological upgrades, driving the continuous decline of production costs. The steep cost curve formed by cost differences in the past is gradually flattening. This "collapse - style" cost reduction not only weakens the support of traditional high costs for prices but also becomes the core force driving the decline of lithium carbonate prices. [2][4] 3.1.4 Nanhua's Viewpoint - Short - term: Macroeconomic sentiment affects commodities, supply - side disturbances are gradually intensifying, and the market is generally strong. - Medium - to long - term: As lithium salt prices gradually rise, corporate profits will increase, and the operating rate is expected to gradually rise in the future. [4] 3.1.5 Strategy Recommendations - Enterprises should seize the window period for planned production; speculative investors are advised to adopt a strategy of short - term long and long - term short. [4] 3.1.6 Bullish Interpretations - As lithium ore and lithium salt prices continue to decline, the probability of supply - side disturbances gradually increases. - The current situation of high open interest and low warehouse receipts is being traded in the market. - The production scheduling on the demand side has increased more than expected. [4] 3.1.7 Bearish Interpretations - The future production capacity of lithium ore is still expected to be large, and high inventories are suppressing ore prices. If ore prices further loosen, it will drag down the cost of lithium carbonate. - Both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are high and still in an inventory accumulation trend. - Industrial technology upgrades and iterations have led to a decrease in the costs of some high - cost technology routes, delaying the capacity clearing. [4] 3.2 Price and Spread - The report provides detailed weekly price data for the lithium - battery industry chain, including futures, lithium ore, lithium salts, downstream materials, and terminal products, showing price changes, week - on - week changes, etc. For example, the closing price of the lithium carbonate weighted index contract was 79,578 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 10,175 yuan and a week - on - week increase of 14.66%. [5] 3.3 Lithium Ore 3.3.1 Import - The report presents the seasonal chart of the total monthly import volume of lithium concentrate and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate by country (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, Rwanda). [11] 3.3.2 Production - It shows the seasonal charts of the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and sample lithium mica mines in terms of lithium carbonate equivalent. [13] 3.3.3 Inventory - The report provides the inventory data of Chinese lithium ore (including total inventory, warehouse inventory, and trader's spot inventory at major ports) and the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of lithium ore samples in lithium salt factories in terms of LCE equivalent. [15] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Operating Rate - The operating rate of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 1.96% week - on - week to 48.6%. Among them, the operating rate of lithium spodumene enterprises decreased by 0.64% to 52.61%, the operating rate of lithium mica enterprises increased by 2.97% to 58.18%, the operating rate of salt lake enterprises decreased by 13.25% to 56.22%, and the operating rate of recycling material enterprises decreased by 0.34% to 20.5%. [23] 3.4.2 Production - The weekly production of sample lithium carbonate enterprises decreased by 2.54% week - on - week to 18,630 tons. Among them, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene decreased by 0.64% to 9,264 tons, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium mica increased by 0.3% to 5,115 tons, the production of lithium carbonate from salt lake materials decreased by 13.25% to 2,847 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate from recycling materials decreased by 0.4% to 1,404 tons. [31] 3.4.3 Import - The report shows the seasonal charts of the total monthly import volume of lithium carbonate (cumulative value since the beginning of the year and monthly value) and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate by country (Chile and Argentina). [32][34] 3.4.4 Inventory - The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.39% week - on - week to 143,170 tons. Among them, smelter inventories decreased by 4.57% to 55,385 tons, downstream inventories increased by 3.74% to 42,815 tons, and other inventories increased by 3.83% to 44,970 tons. [38] 3.4.5 Profit - The report provides charts of the production profit of purchasing lithium ore externally (including the profit of the sulfate method and the sulfuric acid method for lithium carbonate), the import profit of lithium carbonate, and the theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate. [39][42] 3.5 Demand 3.5.1 Operating Rate - The report shows the seasonal charts of the operating rates of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, lithium cobaltate, and electrolyte. [44][46] 3.5.2 Production - It presents the seasonal charts of the total production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, lithium cobaltate, and electrolyte. [48][51] 3.5.3 Inventory - The report provides the seasonal charts of the total inventories of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate industries. [53][55] 3.5.4 Profit - It shows the profit charts of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate, as well as the theoretical cost chart of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte. [57][58] 3.6 Terminal Battery Cells 3.6.1 Production - The report shows the production data of SMM lithium batteries (total production, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries, production of SMM ternary batteries, and production of other types of batteries), the monthly production data of SMM power battery cells (total, ternary, lithium iron phosphate, and other types), the seasonal chart of the monthly production of SMM power battery cells (total), and the seasonal chart of the monthly production of Chinese energy - storage battery cells. [60] 3.6.2 Installation Volume - It presents the seasonal charts of the total installation volume of Chinese lithium batteries, the installation volume of LFP batteries, and the installation volume of NCM batteries. [63][64] 3.6.3 Battery Cell Inventory - The report provides the inventory data of Chinese lithium batteries (including lithium iron phosphate batteries, ternary batteries, energy - storage batteries, and power batteries), the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of Chinese power battery cells (lithium iron phosphate), and the seasonal chart of the monthly inventory of SMM Chinese power battery cells (ternary). [66][68]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current period is the off - season for consumption, with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers are more willing to sell, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. The market expects prices to rise from late July to early August, which may cause more concentrated sales and keep the spot market weak. The macro sentiment is strong recently, but the premium on the futures market has increased, and hedging profits have risen significantly. Piglet purchases will enter the off - season in August, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,230 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan's is 13,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,440 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [4] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2509 contract is 14,365 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton year - on - year; the生猪2511 contract is 14,210 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; and the生猪2601 contract is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 79,187 lots, down 42,372 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 62,464 lots, down 4,839 lots; the生猪2511 contract has a trading volume of 21,662 lots, down 22,162 lots, and an open interest of 46,374 lots, down 732 lots; the生猪2601 contract has a trading volume of 27,110 lots, down 22,001 lots, and an open interest of 39,822 lots, up 1,068 lots [4] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the生猪2509 contract is - 135 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton year - on - year; the生猪2511 contract's basis is 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the生猪2601 contract's basis is - 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 155 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton; and the 11 - 1 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [- 2,2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [5]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino-US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Attention should be paid to China's purchases and weather in US soybean-producing areas. The domestic soybean complex is expected to continue the positive spread logic, and the rapeseed complex is strong due to short - term warehouse receipt supply - demand mismatch. Short - term contradictions cannot drive the market to strengthen significantly, and the far - month supply - demand gap is the focus for layout [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include Sino - US peace talks expectations, strong far - month bullish sentiment in the weather market, and cost support from Brazil's export premium for far - month contracts. Bearish factors involve spot supply pressure on the basis, expected soybean arrivals, and the impact of the Indian rapeseed issue and potential supply recovery of rapeseed [5][6]. 2. Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, it is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1266 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0718 [3]. Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory can short M2509 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2509 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans can short M2509 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - The closing prices and daily changes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are as follows: Soybean meal 01 closed at 3116, up 12 (0.39%); Soybean meal 05 at 2769, up 9 (0.33%); Soybean meal 09 at 3095, up 9 (0.29%); Rapeseed meal 01 at 2444, up 7 (0.29%); Rapeseed meal 05 at 2383, up 6 (0.25%); Rapeseed meal 09 at 2758, up 22 (0.8%) [7][9]. Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the basis and spot spreads, are presented in the report. For example, the M01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 347, up 3 [10]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4766.8495 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8.7627 and a weekly decrease of 0.004. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 173.8811 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40.4599 and a weekly increase of 0.9124. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed is also provided [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market has found support at key integer levels, but Sino - US talks and weather conditions can no longer drive the market to rebound. Future focus should be on China's purchases and weather in US soybean - producing areas. The domestic soybean complex is expected to continue the positive spread logic, and the rapeseed complex is strong due to short - term warehouse receipt supply - demand mismatch. Short - term contradictions cannot drive the market to strengthen significantly, and the long - term supply - demand gap is the key for layout [4]. - Positive factors include the expectation of Sino - US talks supporting the US soybean market, strong long - term bullish sentiment under weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums supporting long - term contract prices from the cost side [5]. - Negative factors involve supply pressure on the spot side mainly reflected in the basis, the need to monitor the departure of long - position funds in the near - term contracts for futures - spot convergence, expected soybean arrivals with a gap after December, and the impact of the Indian rapeseed meal issue and potential Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks on the market [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 14.1%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1642 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2531 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Traders**: With high protein inventory and concerns about falling meal prices, they are advised to short 25% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Feed Mills**: With low regular inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, they are recommended to buy 50% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - **Oil Mills**: Worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices, they should short 50% of soybean meal futures (M2509) at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover costs [3]. 3.2 Futures Prices - **Soybean Meal**: The closing prices of soybean meal 01, 05, and 09 are 3104, 2760, and 3086 respectively, with daily increases of 17, 8, and 17, and daily growth rates of 0.55%, 0.29%, and 0.55% [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The closing prices of rapeseed meal 01, 05, and 09 are 2437, 2377, and 2736 respectively, with daily increases of 22, 11, and 9, and daily growth rates of 0.91%, 0.46%, and 0.33% [7][9]. - **Others**: CBOT yellow soybeans closed at 1026.75 with no change, and the offshore RMB was at 7.1714, down 0.0071 or 0.1% [9]. 3.3 Spreads - **Soybean Meal Spreads**: M01 - 05 is 344 (up 9), M05 - 09 is - 326 (down 9), M09 - 01 is - 18 (unchanged). The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2900 (unchanged), and the basis is - 186 (down 17) [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: RM01 - 05 is 60 (up 11), RM05 - 09 is - 359 (up 2), RM09 - 01 is 299 (down 13). The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2590 (down 84), and the basis is - 137 (down 89) [10]. - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spreads**: The spot spread is 310 (unchanged), and the futures spread is 350 (up 8) [10]. 3.4 Import Costs and Pressing Profits - **Import Costs**: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4770.043 yuan/ton (up 51.5218), and that of Brazilian soybeans is 3927.66 yuan/ton (down 29.05) [11]. - **Profits**: The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 853.473 yuan/ton (up 51.5218), the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 133.4212 yuan/ton (down 20.3779), the import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 301 yuan/ton (down 4), and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 292 yuan/ton (down 8) [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term domestic cotton is supported by post - pricing of textile enterprises and low inventory, with a strong trend, but the terminal finished product inventory pressure is accumulating in the off - season, which may limit the upside space of cotton prices. The far - month has a high - yield expectation, and the change of Sino - US tariffs after August 1st needs attention [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The monthly price range of cotton is predicted to be 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0629 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0675 [3]. - For inventory management with high inventory, it is recommended to sell CF2509 futures at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell CF509C14400 call options at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. - For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy CF2509 futures at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell CF509P13600 put options at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [3]. Core Contradictions - Domestic cotton is supported by post - pricing and low inventory in the short - term, but the terminal inventory pressure and far - month high - yield expectation may limit the price increase. Attention should be paid to the import quota policy and Sino - US tariffs [4]. 利多解读 - Cotton imports have decreased significantly this year, and the de - stocking of Xinjiang cotton is fast. The national cotton industrial and commercial inventory is 342.45 million tons as of July 15, with an expected tight - balance at the end of the year [5]. - Post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5]. 利空解读 - Downstream gauze factories continue to reduce production, and the terminal sales are not smooth, with the inventory of grey cloth accumulating [6]. - Xinjiang's new cotton is growing well, and there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year's output [6]. Futures and Price Index - Cotton 01 closed at 14,030, up 40 (0.29%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,990, up 45 (0.32%); Cotton 09 closed at 14,225, up 40 (0.28%); Yarn 01 closed at 20,235, up 20 (0.1%); Yarn 05 closed at 20,190, unchanged; Yarn 09 closed at 20,430, up 40 (0.2%) [7][8]. - The cotton basis is 1,324, down 80; Cotton 01 - 05 is 40, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 is - 235, up 5; Cotton 09 - 01 is 195, unchanged; The cotton - yarn spread is 6,215, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread is 1,797, up 104; The domestic - foreign yarn spread is - 444, unchanged [9]. - CCI 3128B is 15,549, down 40 (- 0.26%); CCI 2227B is 13,638, down 37 (- 0.27%); CCI 2129B is 15,866, down 28 (- 0.18%); FCI Index S is 13,886, down 99 (- 0.71%); FCI Index M is 13,693, down 99 (- 0.72%); FCI Index L is 13,432, down 99 (- 0.73%) [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino-US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is still a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and the overall meal prices will reach an inflection point this year. From a valuation perspective, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and with the expectation of a resilient Brazilian premium, the far - month futures prices are expected to receive marginal upward driving forces [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 13.2%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1637 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.25 [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs | M2509 | Sell | 25% | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | To prevent rising meal prices from increasing procurement costs, buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2509 | Buy | 50% | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | To prevent losses from excessive imported inventory, short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and cover production costs | M2509 | Sell | 50% | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino - US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and meal prices will reach an inflection point. The downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and far - month futures prices may rise [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors No relevant content provided. 3.5 Bearish Factors - The supply pressure at the spot end is mainly reflected in the basis. The futures market lacks short - selling pressure due to the roll - over of hedging positions. - The arrivals in July, August, and September are 11.5 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10 million tons respectively, with a gap after December. - The rapeseed meal inventory is increasing slightly, the near - month futures warehouse receipt pressure is easing, and there are short - term supply rhythm issues. The market has rebounded. The market has repeatedly priced in the information of Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian meetings, and attention should be paid to the recovery of rapeseed supply [6]. 3.6 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3087 | 9 | 0.29% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2752 | 8 | 0.29% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3069 | 13 | 0.43% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2415 | 21 | 0.88% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2366 | 14 | 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2727 | 5 | 0.18% | [7] 3.7 CBOT and Exchange Rate - CBOT yellow soybeans are at 1035 with no change (0%). The offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1785, down 0.0001 (0%) [10]. 3.8 Spreads - The spreads between different soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as the spreads between spot and futures prices and basis are provided in the report [11]. 3.9 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4809.2202 | - 41.4821 | 0.0444 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3956.71 | 21.56 | 62.69 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 781.987 | - 5.4181 | - 21.3411 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 903.0352 | - 41.4821 | - 78.2827 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 153.7991 | 0.0531 | 0.1373 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 301 | - 4 | - 3 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 292 | - 8 | 0 | [12]

Core Viewpoint - The waste copper market experienced significant price fluctuations over a week, driven by futures market dynamics, supply chain adjustments, and policy changes [2][6]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations - On July 10, the price of bright copper dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 72,200 yuan/ton, with a nationwide average falling to 65,000 yuan/ton, marking a single-day decline of 600 yuan, the lowest of the year [2]. - The futures market saw the main copper contract (CU888) drop over 500 yuan/ton from July 9 to 10, leading to panic selling in the waste copper market [2]. - By July 16, the main copper contract stabilized at 78,020 yuan/ton, prompting a recovery in waste copper prices, with the national average rising to 70,630 yuan/ton [2]. Group 2: Regional Price Competition - As of July 17, the price of bright copper wire in Nanyang and Xi'an reached 70,690 yuan/ton, only 10 yuan lower than Shanghai, with a previous price difference of 150 yuan a month prior [4]. - The transportation time for waste copper from North China to East China decreased from 5 days to 3 days, reducing transportation costs by 30 yuan/ton [4]. - The competition reshaped price tiers, with Nanyang and Xi'an in the top tier (70,680-70,690 yuan/ton) due to strong demand from local motor manufacturing [5]. Group 3: Quality Differentiation - On July 17, the average price of bright copper wire was 70,645 yuan/ton, while crushed yellow brass was priced at 68,230 yuan/ton, showing a price difference of 2,415 yuan [5]. - High-purity waste copper, such as bright copper wire, is increasingly viewed as "hard currency" in the market due to its critical role in battery-grade copper foil production [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Policy Impact - The relationship between futures and waste copper prices is defined as: waste copper price = futures copper price × 90% - processing fee ± regional premiums [6]. - The implementation of new recycling regulations in Shanghai benefits compliant companies through a VAT refund policy, saving 420 yuan per ton of waste copper [6]. - Technological advancements, such as the use of laser sorting machines, have significantly improved waste copper recovery efficiency and purity, further driving up prices for high-grade copper [6].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - Fundamentally, the near - term surplus pattern of pure benzene remains unchanged, but new downstream production news strengthens the expectation of improved future demand for pure benzene. Styrene ports have significantly accumulated inventory, large traders started to sell near - month goods this week, and the near - month basis has weakened rapidly. Also, there have been frequent news of styrene plant overhauls this week, disturbing market sentiment. The pure benzene and styrene futures generally showed a volatile and weakening trend [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price forecast for pure benzene is 5800 - 6400 yuan/ton, and for styrene is 6900 - 7500 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 85.8% [3] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about styrene price drops, it is recommended to short styrene futures (EB2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7250 - 7350 yuan/ton to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. Also, sell call options (EB2509C7500) with a 50% hedging ratio at 70 - 90 to collect premiums and reduce capital costs [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy styrene futures (EB2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (EB2509P7100) with a 75% hedging ratio at 80 - 110 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3] Core Contradiction Analysis - The near - term surplus of pure benzene remains, but future demand improvement is expected. Styrene port inventory has increased, large traders sold near - month goods, and the near - month basis weakened. Frequent plant overhaul news disturbed the market, and the overall trend of the two futures was volatile and weak [4] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - There was a problem with Shenghong's fluidized bed, resulting in a 30% reduction in reforming and atmospheric - vacuum distillation loads, a decrease of 10,000 tons in pure benzene output and 30,000 tons in PX output, and the planned overhaul will last until the end of the month [5] - There were market rumors this week that the POSM unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical had a malfunction, resulting in a loss of 10,000 tons of styrene, and Jieyang Petrochemical's styrene plant will start an overhaul at the end of August, expected to last for half a month [5] - The prices of coking coal and coke were strong today, providing strong cost - side support [5] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - As of July 14, 2025, the styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports was 138,500 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons or 24.22% from the previous period. Styrene inventory has significantly increased this week, large industrial traders started to sell near - month goods, and near - term liquidity has improved [6] - The styrene downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and downstream factories mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand without the intention to stockpile [6] - The latest production schedules of three major white - goods have been significantly revised down compared to the previous period, and the terminal's consumption demand expectation for the third quarter is pessimistic [8] Basis and Spread Analysis - The daily changes in the pure benzene basis showed a weakening trend, such as the华东 - BZ03 basis changing from - 202 to - 244, a decrease of 42 [8] - The daily changes in the styrene basis also showed a weakening trend, such as the华东 - EB07 basis changing from 140 to 50, a decrease of 90 [8] - The pure benzene - styrene industrial chain spreads showed various changes, for example, the styrene spot - pure benzene spot spread increased from 1450 to 1520 yuan/ton [8] Price Data - Brent crude oil price was 69.65 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day and down from 70.63 dollars/barrel last week [9] - Among various pure benzene prices, the FOB Korea price was 722 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton from the previous day [9] - Among styrene prices, the EB2507 price was 7350 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous day [9] - The profits of related products showed different trends, such as the EB non - integrated profit remaining at - 51.4985 yuan/ton, and the EPS profit decreasing from 429 to 329 yuan/ton [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - BZ futures maintain a certain premium, with strong downstream demand for pure benzene, leading to a decline in pure benzene port inventory from a high level. High开工 rates of styrene and CPL support demand, and the increase in polymer MDI开工 drives up aniline开工. However, the sustainability of high CPL开工 is questionable due to the decline in PA6 and nylon filament开工. On the supply side, the pressure of South Korean exports to China remains, and domestic开工 is still high, resulting in the continued weak consolidation of pure benzene processing fees. - For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly, and the EB basis is further weakening. Domestically, EB maintains a high开工 rate. In terms of demand, EPS开工 is increasing, but there is still inventory pressure on PS and ABS, suppressing their开工 rates. - The recommended trading strategies are to remain on the sidelines for pure benzene, and to sell short styrene at high prices for hedging. For basis and inter - period spreads, conduct reverse hedging for near - month BZ paper goods against distant - end BZ2603 futures at high prices; conduct reverse inter - period spreads for EB2508 - 2509 and EB2509 - 2510. For cross - variety spreads, narrow the EB - BZ spread at high prices [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 202 yuan/ton (+4), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 85 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton). The spread between the first - month contract and the third - month contract is also provided in the figures [1][11]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 116 yuan/ton (- 61 yuan/ton), and the inter - period spreads between EB2508 - 2509 and EB2509 - 2510 are recommended for reverse hedging [1][3]. 3.2 Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 160 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton), and the FOB South Korea processing fee is 143 dollars/ton (+2 dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 128.9 dollars/ton (- 24.1 dollars/ton). Downstream production profits include - 1818 yuan/ton (+42) for caprolactam, - 667 yuan/ton (+0) for phenol - acetone, - 97 yuan/ton (+74) for aniline, and - 1428 yuan/ton (- 14) for adipic acid [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 54 yuan/ton (- 87 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The EB - BZ spread is recommended to be narrowed at high prices [1][3]. 3.3 Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 16.40 million tons (- 1.00 million tons), and the开工 rate of downstream products such as caprolactam is 91.72% (- 4.00%), phenol is 81.00% (+3.00%), aniline is 75.86% (+4.96%), and adipic acid is 64.80% (- 0.90%) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 138,500 tons (+27,000 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 45,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and the开工 rate is 78.3% (- 0.9%) [1]. 3.4 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 324 yuan/ton (+119 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 53.18% (+2.12%). - PS production profit is - 126 yuan/ton (+69 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 50.60% (- 0.50%). - ABS production profit is 490 yuan/ton (+77 yuan/ton), and the开工 rate is 65.90% (+0.90%). The downstream开工 is at a seasonal low [2]. 3.5 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam开工 rate is 91.72% (- 4.00%), and the production profit is - 1818 yuan/ton (+42). - Phenol - acetone开工 rate is 81.00% (+3.00%), and the production profit is - 667 yuan/ton (+0). - Aniline开工 rate is 75.86% (+4.96%), and the production profit is - 97 yuan/ton (+74). - Adipic acid开工 rate is 64.80% (- 0.90%), and the production profit is - 1428 yuan/ton (- 14) [1].