Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The polyester industry chain continues to be weak due to a weak cost side. There is an imbalance between China's import demand and US exports after the National Day, along with increased Middle - East exports, leading to a supply - surplus situation. In the short term, the combination of macro and fundamental factors is pressuring the fundamentals, with no obvious drivers for a rebound. PX, TA, and demand - side conditions all face various challenges, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - It's currently in the Sino - US trade war negotiation period, and the leaders of both sides will meet around the end of the month. Attention should be paid to the progress. Also, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025, discussing the "15th Five - Year Plan", studying the current economic situation, and planning the second - half economic work [1]. Market Analysis Cost Side - After the National Day, there is a significant gap between China's slowing import demand and the increasing US exports, combined with increased Middle - East exports, resulting in a supply - surplus situation. The combination of macro and fundamental factors is pressuring the fundamentals, with no signs of a rebound [2]. - PX: The PXN was 246 dollars/ton in the previous trading session (a 5.50 - dollar/ton increase from the previous period). China's PX operating rate has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. With fewer PX maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some plants, PXN remains under pressure. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans after a significant compression of profits, so the PX supply - demand support is limited [2]. - TA: The TA main - contract spot basis was - 88 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee was 106 yuan/ton (a 23 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the main - contract on - screen processing fee was 307 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The processing fee has been further compressed due to news of new plant launches. There are many near - term maintenance plans, so the inventory - accumulation pressure is not large. However, a new plant is expected to start production next week, and the inventory - accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is abundant, and the cost - side support has weakened. The demand side is not in the peak season due to tariffs [2]. Demand Side - The polyester operating rate was 91.4% (a 0.1% decrease from the previous period). After the National Day, the market calmed down, and filament inventory increased again. Terminal raw - material procurement remains mostly cautious. The weaving and texturing load decreased again this week due to high tariffs. It's expected that the average polyester load in October can still be maintained above 91%, and there is still support from the cooling weather. Attention should be paid to whether bottle - chip production will restart when the processing fee recovers [3]. - PF: The spot production profit was 326 yuan/ton (an 18 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load remained stable. Due to the narrowing price gap in the market, the factory price advantage became prominent, and inventory decreased. The current factory inventory is low, and the quantity of goods held by traders has decreased. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw - material side, and the processing margin has expanded to over 1200. On the demand side, the production of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn was mostly stable, with some offering moderate discounts. Sales were average, inventory decreased slightly, and the load increased slightly [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip spot processing fee was 530 yuan/ton (an 11 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Fundamentally, the bottle - chip load remained stable with a slight increase this week. Large factories generally maintained production cuts. The bottle - chip factory inventory decreased. As the processing efficiency improves, attention should be paid to whether the plant load will increase and the progress of new - capacity launches [3]. Strategy Single - Side Strategy - For PX/PTA/PF/PR, cautious short - selling hedging at high prices is recommended. Currently in the Sino - US trade war negotiation period, attention should be paid to the progress. For PX, China's PX operating rate has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, with fewer fourth - quarter maintenance plans and capacity expansion of some plants, weakening the fourth - quarter supply - demand support. For TA, there are many near - term maintenance plans, and the inventory - accumulation pressure is not large, but a new plant is expected to start production soon, and the inventory - accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is abundant, and the demand side is not in the peak season due to tariffs. For PF, the demand has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has decreased to a low level. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw - material side, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate strongly. For PR, the bottle - chip fundamentals have not changed much, maintenance continues, and the demand is average. The bottle - chip spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw - material price fluctuations [4]. Cross - Variety Strategy - Go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [4]. Cross - Period Strategy - PX/PTA2601 - 2605 reverse spread [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current trading focus of the soybean meal futures market is that the US soybean market is mainly driven by export demand under the background of China-US negotiations. It will continue to fluctuate narrowly at the bottom until actual Chinese purchase orders emerge. The suspension of the US Department of Agriculture and the October USDA report's potential adjustment to the previous yield are to be followed. The soybean planting progress in Brazil is improving, and there are no major issues with the new crop's yield. The upward space of the domestic soybean complex is restricted by the high inventory pressure in the near - term, and short - term sentiment trading is affected by China - US negotiations. - The current trading focus of the rapeseed meal futures market is that with limited arrivals of rapeseed raw materials in the future, inventory will show seasonal destocking. China - Canada negotiations affect market expectations, and it will mainly follow the trend of soybean meal in the short term. The timing of accelerating long positions depends on subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.5% and a historical percentile of 34.2% over three years. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.3% and a historical percentile of 52.8% over three years [3]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs due to high protein inventory and concerns about price drops | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in case of price increases | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and cover production costs due to concerns about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - For soybean meal, the external US soybean market is export - demand - driven under China - US negotiations, with short - term USDA suspension and Brazilian planting progress to watch. The domestic market is restricted by high inventory and negotiation sentiment. - For rapeseed meal, with limited raw material arrivals, inventory will destock seasonally. It follows soybean meal in the short term, and the long - entry timing depends on warehouse receipts [4]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to supply - demand gaps. - The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - In the near - term, the inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and the soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend after the resumption of oil mill crushing. - The warehouse receipt pressure of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has increased again, making the near - term supply pressure dominate the market. - The expectations of China - US and China - Canada negotiations have led to a weakening of the meal futures market [6]. 3.6 Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 2889 | - 6 | - 0.21% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2743 | 7 | 0.26% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2860 | 7 | 0.25% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2321 | - 29 | - 1.23% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2303 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2396 | 2 | 0.08% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1032.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1233 | 0.0067 | 0.09% | [7][9] 3.7 Price Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 159 | 0 | RM01 - 05 | 45 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 117 | 0 | RM05 - 09 | - 89 | 0 | | M09 - 01 | - 42 | 0 | RM09 - 01 | 44 | 0 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2970 | 0 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 75 | 0 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2480 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 130 | - 44 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 490 | 0 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 545 | 0 | [10] 3.8 Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4397.7754 | - 59.8076 | 0.005 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 4001.68 | 33.35 | 75.73 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 715.0854 | - 8.1371 | - 1.6835 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 590.0704 | - 59.8076 | - 7.1389 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 3.5993 | 8.8209 | - 0.9582 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 766 | - 26 | - 206 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 1025 | - 29 | - 180 | [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, the port destocking rate has slowed down, domestic production capacity utilization has declined, and downstream capacity utilization has decreased. There is still inventory pressure in PA6, nylon filament, and MDI [4]. - For styrene, short - term maintenance continues, new device production impacts, downstream capacity utilization has increased but port inventory pressure persists, overseas demand is weak, and inventory pressure continues [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and Styrene Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - period - Not elaborated in the content, only figure names are mentioned such as pure benzene and styrene futures contracts, spot prices, basis, and inter - period spreads [9][10][17] 2. Styrene Supply - The arrival volume of styrene in East China is 11,900 tons (-27,300 tons). The overall styrene factory capacity utilization is 71.88% (-1.73%), with different rates in different regions: East China 71.42% (+3.35%), Shandong 62.46% (-13.08%), and South China 80.53% (-2.17%) [1]. - In the short term, maintenance continues, satellite petrochemical is under maintenance, and new device production from Jihua, Guangxi Petrochemical, etc. impacts [4]. 3. Styrene Downstream Demand - EPS capacity utilization is 62.52% (+21.78%), PS capacity utilization is 53.80% (-0.80%), ABS capacity utilization is 73.10% (+0.60%), UPR capacity utilization is 34.00% (+14.00%), and butadiene - styrene rubber capacity utilization is 70.20% (-0.20%) [1]. - EPS has a seasonal post - festival increase, PS capacity utilization continues to decline, ABS capacity utilization rebounds from a low level, and the finished product inventory pressure of the three hard plastics is still large [4]. 4. Styrene Inventory - The East China port inventory of styrene is 196,500 tons (-5,400 tons), and the factory inventory is 193,420 tons (-443 tons). The inventory of EPS sample enterprises is 34,600 tons (+4,100 tons), PS sample enterprises is 112,050 tons (+3,350 tons), ABS sample enterprises is 257,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and butadiene - styrene rubber sample enterprises is 19,000 tons (-1,500 tons) [1]. - The port inventory pressure persists, and overseas demand is weak, increasing the import pressure on China [4]. 5. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - The East China port inventory of pure benzene is 90,000 tons (-1,000 tons). The pure benzene capacity utilization is 75.48% (-3.81%), and the hydro - benzene capacity utilization is 64.53% (+1.29%) [2]. 6. Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - In the CPL industry chain, the CPL capacity utilization is 92.41% (-3.59%), the PA6 capacity utilization is 79.58% (+1.37%), and the nylon filament capacity utilization is 77.50% (-0.50%) [2]. - In the phenol - acetone industry chain, the phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 78.00% (+0.00%), the bisphenol A capacity utilization is 68.90% (-5.77%), the PC capacity utilization is 77.69% (-3.23%), and the epoxy resin capacity utilization is 50.64% (-0.25%) [2]. - In the aniline industry chain, the aniline capacity utilization is 75.73% (-1.43%), the polymer MDI capacity utilization is 96.00% (+0.00%), and the pure MDI capacity utilization is 96.00% (+0.00%) [3]. - In the adipic acid industry chain, the adipic acid capacity utilization is 59.10% (-7.80%), the spandex capacity utilization is 77.50% (+0.00%), the PA66 capacity utilization is 60.45% (-0.82%), and the polyurethane elastomer capacity utilization is 53.50% (+1.21%) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The PE supply - demand pattern remains loose. Supply is increasing as multiple devices restarted in late September, and import volume is expected to rise in October - November. Demand recovery is slow, with low downstream order follow - up and weak restocking willingness. High inventory levels add to the pressure on prices. Considering various uncertainties, it's recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range for polyethylene is predicted to be between 6800 - 7200 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.15%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 4.7% [3]. - **Inventory Management Hedging**: For high product inventory, to prevent price drops, it's recommended to short L2601 plastic futures at a 25% ratio with an entry range of 7150 - 7200 yuan and sell L2601C7200 call options at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 30 - 50 [3]. - **Procurement Management Hedging**: For low procurement inventory, to avoid price hikes, it's suggested to buy L2601 plastic futures at a 50% ratio with an entry range of 6800 - 6850 yuan and sell L2601P6700 put options at a 75% ratio with an entry range of 70 - 90 [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction Analysis - **Supply - Demand Situation**: PE supply is increasing due to device restarts and expected import growth, while demand recovery is slow. High inventory levels are putting downward pressure on prices. Due to uncertainties such as trade policies and conferences, unilateral trading should be on hold [4]. 3.3 Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The downstream demand is in the peak season, and a 50 - million - ton full - density device of Yulong stopped for about 5 days due to a fault [5]. - **Negative Factors**: New LDPE devices are expected to be put into production, device restarts have increased the operating rate, LLDPE inventory is high, and PE imports are expected to increase in October - November [7][9]. 3.4 Market Data Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: There were various changes in plastic futures prices, spreads, and basis compared to previous days and weeks [10]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in different regions and regional spreads also showed changes [10]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between non - standard and standard PE products had different changes [10]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Prices of upstream raw materials like crude oil, ethane, coal, and methanol changed, and processing profits of different PE production methods also fluctuated [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current state of strong supply and weak demand in the downstream steel industry remains unchanged, with the peak season not living up to expectations. During the National Day holiday, steel consumption declined more than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level in the past five years. Iron ore production remains high, and the steel inventory accumulation rate is higher than the same period in previous years [3]. - Although the demand data of the five major steel products rebounded regularly after the holiday, it was still lower than the pre - holiday level. The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the steel industry remained unchanged [3]. - Today, the iron ore in the furnace material end continued to fall, but the prices of coking coal and coke increased significantly. With the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd, the market still has expectations for macro - policy stimulus, leading to a slight rebound in steel prices. However, in the absence of improvement in the steel fundamentals, today's rebound is more of a rebound after a long - term decline and is driven by the coking coal and coke end, with limited rebound space [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly forecast range for the 01 contract of rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.60% and a volatility percentile of 16.5%. For hot - rolled coils, the range is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 11.76% and a volatility percentile of 12.86% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about steel price drops, they can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs. For example, short RB2501 and HC2501 with a hedging ratio of 30% at the suggested entry intervals of 3100 - 3150 and 3280 - 3350 respectively. They can also sell call options to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the steel price rises, such as selling RB2601C3400 with a hedging ratio of 20% at 30 - 40 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. For example, buy RB2601 and HC2601 with a hedging ratio of 30% at the intervals of 3000 - 3050 and 3200 - 3250 respectively. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the rebar price drops, such as selling RB2601P2900 with a hedging ratio of 20% at 35 - 45 [3]. 3.2 Market Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The Fourth Plenary Session in October and production restriction disturbances [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Steel inventory accumulation beyond the seasonal norm and the increasing pressure of negative feedback [5]. 3.3 Price and Spread Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 16, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3049, 3102, and 3141 respectively, with daily changes of 15, 12, and 191, and weekly changes of - 47, - 57, and 121. The closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3219, 3233, and 3254 respectively, with daily changes of 7, 10, and - 356, and weekly changes of - 67, - 60, and - 116. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions also showed certain changes [5]. - **Spreads**: - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: On October 16, 2025, the rebar 01 - 05 month - to - month spread was - 53, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of 10; the rebar 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was 92, with a daily change of 176 and a weekly change of 168. The hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - to - month spread was - 14, with a daily change of - 7 and a weekly change of - 7; the hot - rolled coil 10 - 01 month - to - month spread was 35, with a daily change of - 363 and a weekly change of - 49 [6]. - **Roll - Rebar Spreads**: The 01 roll - rebar spread, 05 roll - rebar spread, and 10 roll - rebar spread also had corresponding changes, and the spot roll - rebar spreads in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenyang also showed different trends [6]. - **Other Spreads**: The ratios of 01 rebar/01 iron ore, 05 rebar/05 iron ore, 10 rebar/09 iron ore, and the ratios of rebar to coke also had certain changes [8]. 3.4 Seasonal Data - The report also provides a large amount of seasonal data, including the seasonal data of rebar 01 contract basis (in Hangzhou Zhongtian, Beijing, etc.), hot - rolled coil 01 basis (in Zhangjiagang Shagang, etc.), iron ore 01 basis, coking coal 01 contract basis, coke 01 contract basis, rebar and hot - rolled coil month - to - month spreads, rebar and hot - rolled coil 01盘面利润, various steel product profits (including immediate and raw - material - lagged profits), spot roll - rebar spreads, hot - rolled coil export profit estimates, and warehouse receipt inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coils on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [9][11][17][20][21][25][31][34][37][50][57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market is currently experiencing strong supply and demand. However, after the holiday, as the atmosphere in the new energy vehicle market changes and the downstream replenishment pace slows, there is a risk of lithium salt price decline. For industrial silicon, the short - term supply and demand are okay, but there is uncertainty in the future. For polysilicon, the situation of strong expectation and weak reality continues, and the market may fluctuate due to policy news [3][5][8] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Spot Prices 1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - For lithium carbonate 11, the market is characterized by strong supply and demand with a weakening atmosphere. The upstream is recommended to seize the opportunity of selling hedging when the price surges, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stocking or buying hedging. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 75,000 - 76,000. - For industrial silicon 11, although there is an increasing expectation of demand - side production cuts, the price still has support below. It is recommended to adopt an interval trading strategy and consider long - position allocation in the current interval. The support level is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure level is 9,200 - 9,300. - For polysilicon 11, with the news of capacity control policies, long positions can be held cautiously. If one wants to increase positions, it is recommended to participate through buying call options. The support level is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure level is 52,000 - 53,000 [14] 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 72,720, with a daily increase of 0.06%, trading volume of 225,238, open interest of 188,523 (a decrease of 4,408 compared to the previous day), and 33,076 warehouse receipts. - The closing price of industrial silicon is 8,570, with a daily increase of 0.59%, trading volume of 225,068, open interest of 142,381 (a decrease of 20,293 compared to the previous day), and 50,357 warehouse receipts. - The closing price of polysilicon is 50,865, with a daily increase of 3.37%, trading volume of 276,176, open interest of 80,114 (a decrease of 1,274 compared to the previous day), and 8,050 warehouse receipts [15] Second Part: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: During the holiday week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, an increase of 119 tons compared to the previous week, reaching a new weekly production high. Except for a slight decrease in the production of lithium extracted from mica, the production of other lithium - extraction processes continued to rise. The total sample inventory of lithium carbonate last week was 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons in the past two weeks, but the inventory was still at a high level. The inventory of lithium salt enterprises increased around the holiday, the inventory in the intermediate links decreased, and the downstream inventory slightly declined [3] - **Downstream Situation**: The downstream material factories are becoming more cautious, and the overall market trading activity is average. From October 1 - 12, the wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 546,000, a year - on - year decrease of 11% and a 15% decrease compared to the same period last month [3] 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Southwest China will enter the dry season in November, and production cuts may be planned at the end of October, while large factories in Xinjiang have production increase expectations. The total production of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in October and gradually decline in November [5] - **Downstream Situation**: The traditional peak season demand is okay, and the production of the polysilicon segment continues to increase. However, considering the "production - limit and sales - control" self - discipline plan in the industry, there is great uncertainty in demand. The news of capacity control in the photovoltaic industry on Tuesday has increased the market's concern about the future demand for industrial silicon [5] 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: Driven by high profits, enterprises are highly motivated to produce, and the production of polysilicon in October will exceed expectations. However, due to weak terminal demand, downstream production cuts are gradually advancing, and the polysilicon inventory has shown an obvious accumulation trend. As of the week of October 10, the national polysilicon sample inventory was 253,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,700 tons [8] - **Downstream Situation**: The national photovoltaic new - installed capacity in August was only 7.36GW, hitting a new low this year, indicating a weak downstream demand [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The demand for propylene has weakened, and the cost side continues to drag down the propylene market. On the supply side, there is still significant pressure due to the resumption of production by some major manufacturers in Shandong and the restart of northern devices before the holiday, despite some PDH device shutdowns for maintenance. On the demand side, although downstream buyers start to purchase at low prices when propylene reaches a phased low, the enthusiasm for chasing high prices is low, and the demand follow - up has weakened. The cost side is under pressure as international oil prices decline due to weak demand and tariff disturbances, and the external propane price, though slightly rebounding, remains weak, which further drags down the propylene market. [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6079 yuan/ton (-5), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6215 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot price in North China is 6260 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in East China is 136 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis in North China is 181 yuan/ton (-15). [1] II. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 75% (-1%). The production profit and capacity utilization rate of different propylene production methods are also presented in the data, such as the PDH production method. [1] III. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is -393 yuan/ton (+30). [1] IV. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - PP powder capacity utilization rate is 40% (+2.29%), with a production profit of -85 yuan/ton (+20); epoxy propane capacity utilization rate is 72% (+5%), with a production profit of -344 yuan/ton (-115); and so on for other downstream products. [1] V. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 43390 tons (-1520). [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - hedge; - Inter - period: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for PL01 - 02 when the spread is high; - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US trade conflict has dragged down the chemical sector as a whole. For pure benzene, the port de-stocking rate has slowed down, indicating that downstream procurement has not continued after the holiday. The recovery rate of CPL and aniline operations may be limited, and there is still inventory pressure on PA6 & nylon filament and MDI. The concentrated maintenance of styrene in late October has dragged down the demand for pure benzene. For styrene, port inventory pressure persists, downstream pick-up performance remains average, and port basis has weakened slightly. EPS seasonal low operating rate awaits recovery, PS operating rate continues to decline, and the pressure on PS finished product inventory has increased after the holiday. ABS operating rate has rebounded from a low level, but inventory pressure has further increased. Supply is affected by ongoing maintenance of some plants and new device launches, and overseas demand remains weak, increasing the import pressure on China [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene main contract basis is 33 yuan/ton (-5), and the spot - M2 spread is 40 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton). EB main contract basis is 41 yuan/ton (+26 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 136 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 123 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), and the US - Korea spread is 75.5 dollars/ton (+3.0 dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 546 yuan/ton (-47 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 9.00 tons (-0.10 tons), and the operating rate is not mentioned. Styrene East China port inventory is 196,500 tons (-5,400 tons), East China commercial inventory is 121,500 tons (+5,100 tons), and the operating rate is 73.6% (+2.4%) [1]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 331 yuan/ton (+119 yuan/ton), operating rate is 40.74% (-2.37%); PS production profit is - 119 yuan/ton (+69 yuan/ton), operating rate is 54.60% (-1.70%); ABS production profit is - 15 yuan/ton (-24 yuan/ton), operating rate is 72.50% (+1.50%) [2]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 1830 yuan/ton (+90), operating rate is 96.00% (+0.00%); Phenol - acetone production profit is - 526 yuan/ton (+92), operating rate is 78.00% (-1.00%); Aniline production profit is 478 yuan/ton (+140), operating rate is 77.16% (+1.12%); Adipic acid production profit is - 1292 yuan/ton (+81), operating rate is 66.90% (+4.00%) [1]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - hedge BZ and EB on rallies. - Basis and Inter - Period: Do reverse spreads on the EB2511 - EB2512 spread on rallies. - Cross - Variety: No strategy [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of polyolefins remain in a loose pattern, and the polyolefin market continues to be weak. For PE, post - holiday inventory accumulation, weakened cost support from falling crude oil, and new device production increases drive the price down. For PP, it is mainly dragged down by the weakening of crude oil and propane prices. The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and the cost support is weak [1][2][3]. - Suggested strategies include cautious short - selling hedging for both L and PP in the single - side trading; L01 - L05 and PP01 - PP05 reverse spreads in the inter - period trading; and narrowing the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high in the inter - variety trading [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6918 yuan/ton (-65), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6602 yuan/ton (-91). The LL North China spot price is 6970 yuan/ton (-30), the LL East China spot price is 7000 yuan/ton (-80), and the PP East China spot price is 6640 yuan/ton (-30). The LL North China basis is 52 yuan/ton (+35), the LL East China basis is 82 yuan/ton (-15), and the PP East China basis is 38 yuan/ton (+61) [1]. 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 83.9% (+1.9%), and PP operating rate is 77.7% (+1.1%). PE oil - based production profit is 461.2 yuan/ton (-81.6), PP oil - based production profit is -188.8 yuan/ton (-81.6), and PDH - based PP production profit is 110.3 yuan/ton (+209.4) [1]. 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins No specific data analysis provided in the given text. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL import profit is -28.2 yuan/ton (-39.0), PP import profit is -524.0 yuan/ton (+23.8), and PP export profit is 19.9 US dollars/ton (+2.3) [1]. 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 35.6% (+2.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 52.9% (+0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.3% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.7% (+0.5%) [1]. 6. Polyolefin Inventory - For PE, post - holiday inventory of major plastic producers has accumulated significantly. For PP, there is an expectation of inventory digestion after the holiday, and traders are actively selling at discounted prices [2][3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The port basis of methanol has strengthened rapidly due to factors such as the intensification of Sino - US trade conflicts and the potential impact on Iranian methanol vessel berthing. The support from the inland to the port has weakened as the coal - based methanol operating rate has rebounded and inland inventory has increased from a low level. Traditional downstream industries have seen varying degrees of decline in operating rates [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report includes multiple figures related to methanol basis, such as the methanol Taicang basis and the basis of methanol in different regions relative to the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (MA2601 - MA2605, etc.) [7][9][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, as well as the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol and the MTO profit in East China [25][29][33] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) is presented [34][36][40] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report provides data on regional price differences, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and between different regions like Guangdong and East China [38][45][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][57] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 at low prices - Inter - variety: Narrow the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 at high prices [4]