1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The macro situation is improving, driving up risk appetite, but different varieties in various sectors show diverse trends and require corresponding investment strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Equity Index**: The hedging sector is strong, and the overall equity index is adjusting downward. The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center is moving up. Be cautious of chasing high [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: At the beginning of the month, the capital interest rate continued to decline, and the sentiment of treasury bond futures was strong, but the market temporarily lacked the impetus to break through the previous situation [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations again, suppressing the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut. The gold price fluctuates in the range of $3300 - 3400, and the silver price fluctuates in the range of $36 - 37 [3]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC disk shows a shock, and the EC08 main contract fluctuates in the range of 1800 - 2000 [3]. - **Steel and Black Metals**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. The black sentiment has improved, and the anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. The coal mine's resumption of production is expected to strengthen, and the spot is running strongly [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The copper price is difficult to weaken without the implementation of the 232 investigation. The high copper price restrains downstream procurement. The alumina has frequent ore - end disturbances, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to change [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Macroeconomic uncertainty and OPEC's production increase expectations drag down the disk center of gravity. Attention should be paid to the impact of summer demand changes on the market [3]. - **Chemicals**: The sentiment side is more dominant than the weak fundamentals. The supply - side optimization expectation drives the market, but there are also problems such as high valuation and weak demand expectations [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Grains and Oils**: The overall trend of oils and fats is a narrow - range shock adjustment. The overseas sugar supply outlook is relatively loose, and the downstream cotton market remains weak [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The entry of secondary fattening and the reduction of group supply make the spot sentiment strong [3]. Special Commodities Sector - **Glass and Rubber**: The market sentiment of glass has improved at the beginning of the month. The rubber price is boosted by the macro recovery and storage news, but the fundamental weakening is expected [3]. - **New Energy Materials**: The polycrystalline silicon has no further positive factors, and the lithium carbonate disk maintains a relatively strong trend under the influence of sentiment [3].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：随着美国农业部的种植面积报告和库存报告公布，数据喜忧参半，美豆期价近弱远强，美豆种 植面积低于预期兑远月美豆期价构成支撑。种植面积争议尘埃落地后，市场焦点转向 7-8 月天气扰动下单 产的调整，这也将成为影响美豆期价的核心。短期豆类期价下探空间受限，随着市场情绪逐渐回稳，豆粕 期价或转为震荡偏强运行。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：油脂市场窄幅波动，市场情绪逐渐回稳，资金变化不大 ...

2025年07月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：逢低正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：多PTA空MEG止盈 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：震荡运行格局延续 | 6 | | 沥青：窄幅震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期震荡为主 | 10 | | PP：现货下跌，成交平淡 | 12 | | 烧碱：现货降价未结束，但需关注液氯的影响 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 24 | | LPG：短期震荡运行 | 25 | | PVC：趋势偏弱 | 28 | | 燃料油：夜盘偏弱震荡，短期波动下降 | 30 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅调整，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 30 | | 集运指数（欧线）：降价拐点延后，08震荡整理；逢高布空10 | 31 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 35 | | 瓶片： ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 1 日 公众号二维码 银河农产品及衍生品 粕猪研究：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 棉禽油脂苹果研究： 刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 玉米花生：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号：Z0018389 白糖油运：黄 莹 期货从业证号： F03111919 投资咨询证号：Z0018607 原木造纸：朱四祥 期货从业证号 F03127108 投资咨询号：Z0020124 每日早盘观察 大豆/粕类 【外盘情况】 CBOT 大豆指数下跌 0.96%至 1033.25 美分/蒲，CBOT 豆粕指数下跌 0.42%至 286.5 美金/短吨 【相关资讯】 1.USDA 种植面积报告：美豆新作种植面积 8340 万英亩，市场预估 8365.5 万英 亩，前期评估为 8349.5 万英亩。 2.USDA 季度谷物库存报告：截止 6 月 1 日，美国大豆结转库存 10.1 亿蒲，市场 预估 9.7 亿蒲，3 月份预估为 19.1 亿蒲。 1.单边：低点少量布局多 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the mixed performance in the non-ferrous metals market, influenced by supply and demand factors [1] - Copper prices in Shanghai rose to 78,415 yuan, with a narrowing premium in both Shanghai and Guangdong [1] - The aluminum market showed a decline, with an increase in inventory by 15,000 tons, indicating early signs of seasonal demand weakness [1] Group 2 - The market is experiencing significant divergence, with concerns over supply disruptions easing following a ceasefire in Israel and Palestine [1] - The aluminum and casting aluminum alloy price gap remains large, while the price difference between AL_2511 and AD2511 is only around 400 yuan, suggesting potential trading opportunities [1] - Zinc supply continues to recover, but demand remains weak, leading to a bearish outlook for the zinc market despite recent price rebounds [1]

2025/06/16 -681.41 -1161.78 140 -25 130225 58075 2025/06/17 -797.78 -1366.18 140 -28 128875 58975 2025/06/18 -657.73 -1266.71 140 -30 128250 33150 2025/06/19 -583.20 -1068.47 140 -27 127475 33475 变化 74.53 198.24 0 3 -775 325 本周锌价震荡下跌，受累库预期及宏观扰动影响价格中枢下移。供应端，本周国内TC不变，进口TC小幅回升。6月相比 5月冶炼环比提升2.5万吨左右，矿端加工费月均预计提升150元/吨。需求端，内需边际走弱，华北和华南订单环比下 滑，但刚性仍存，绝对价格下跌过快时下游存在一定点价;海外，欧洲需求较弱，但部分炼厂因为加工费问题生产有一 定阻力，现货升贴水小幅提高。国内，社库震荡，绝对价格下跌升水有抬升，但价格企稳后升水又出现回落，累库加速 拐点预计在六月中旬出现。海外LME库存基本保持不变，5月后震荡去化，主要由于海外锌锭较多流入国内。策略方 面，锌空配思路不变，反弹逢高沽空; ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report covers different commodity futures and options, presenting diverse views for each variety. For example, for pork, it will likely rebound slightly in the short - term and remain weak in the medium - term; for sugar, it will stop falling and stabilize in the short - term and be weak in a volatile manner in the medium - term; for crude oil, it will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term; for PVC, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but lack strong driving forces for continuous increase in the medium - term [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Pork - **Intraday View**: Slight rebound [1] - **Medium - term View**: Remain weak after the rebound [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Short after the rebound [1] - **Core Logic**: Official measures such as state purchases, bans on secondary fattening, and stricter environmental policies have signaled market price stabilization. In the short - term, changes in the average slaughter weight should be monitored, and in the long - term, policy implementation and capacity reduction are key factors. Overall, the price will likely remain weak after a short - term rebound [1]. Sugar - **Intraday View**: Stop falling and stabilize [2] - **Medium - term View**: Weak in a volatile manner [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [2] - **Core Logic**: Internationally, the tense Middle - East situation and weather conditions in major producing countries affect supply. Domestically, although sales are fast and industrial inventory is down, imports are expected to increase, and the overall 25/26 sugar season is expected to be in surplus, leading to a short - term stabilization and medium - term weakening of sugar prices [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate at a high level [5] - **Medium - term View**: Face pressure [5] - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the profitable position of selling out - of - the - money put options on SC2508 [5] - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and OPEC+ policies affect supply. On the demand side, refinery operating rates are rising, but actual downstream demand is weak. In terms of inventory, commercial crude oil inventory is falling, while fuel inventory is rising. Overall, the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term [5][6][7]. PVC - **Intraday View**: Show a warm trend [8] - **Medium - term View**: Lack strong driving forces for continuous increase [8] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8] - **Core Logic**: Cost factors such as power rationing in Inner Mongolia affect supply. Supply has decreased due to plant maintenance. Demand from downstream enterprises has some changes, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but face pressure as demand seasons change [8][9][10].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-13 现货成交转淡，不锈钢横盘振荡 镍品种 市场分析 2025-06-12日沪镍主力合约2507开于121200元/吨，收于120000元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-1.24%，当日成交量 为109748手，持仓量为85673手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘低开后快速下跌至12万附近后横盘振荡，日盘开盘后振荡反弹，午后破位下跌至12万，收大阴 线。成交量较上个交易日有所增加，持仓量较上个交易日有所增加。6月中国精炼镍预估产量37345吨，环比增加 3.75%。现货市场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日下调约925元/吨，市场主流品牌报价均出现相应下调，日内 镍价跌破12万大关，下游企业仍以按需采购，未出现采购热潮，华南现货相对充足，目前精炼镍供应过剩格局不 改。其中金川镍升水变化-25元/吨至2425元/吨，进口镍升水变化200元/吨至500元/吨，镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前 一交易日沪镍仓单量为21041（-72.0）吨，LME镍库存为197634（126）吨。 策略 印尼镍矿供应紧缺现象难改，价格变化不大，成本支撑较强，但精炼镍应过剩格局不改。预计近期偏弱下探，中 长线仍 ...

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.06.12） 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种：铜 日内观点：78700-81000 中期观点：60000-90000 参考策略：震荡操作思路 核心逻辑： 1、宏观方面，世行在报告中预计， 今年发达经济体经济将增长 1.2%，比此前预测低 0.5 个百分点。其中，将美国经济增速从此前的 2.3%大幅下调至 1.4%。欧元区和日本的经 济增速均被下调至 0.7%。 2、供给方面，2025 年 4 月份智利国家铜业公司(Codelco)铜产量同比增加 20.5%至 11.46 万吨，得益于部分矿山技改完成。必和必拓旗下的 Escondida 铜矿 4 月份铜产量同比 增长 31%至 12.84 万吨，这反映高品位矿石的开采效率提升。由嘉能可和英美资源集团联 合经营的另一座大型铜矿 Collahuasi4 月份铜产量同比下降 13.5%至 3.66 万吨，归因于矿石 品位下降或运营调整。全球铜精矿和废铜短期的格局持续。 3、需求方面，5 月，新能源汽车表现尤为突出，单月销量达 130.7 万辆，同比增长 36.9%。电解铜现货市场方面，重庆地区下游消费进入淡季，叠加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bearish rating for plastics in the unilateral strategy, and no rating for the inter - period strategy [3] Core View - In the traditional off - season of demand, the overall performance of the polyolefin demand side is weak, with weak downstream orders, reduced factory replenishment willingness, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation due to the expected start - up of multiple previously overhauled devices and the limited cost support from the significant decline in international crude oil prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7102 yuan/ton (-4), the PP main contract closed at 6960 yuan/ton (+19), the LL North China spot was 7130 yuan/ton (-10), the LL East China spot was 7180 yuan/ton (+60), the PP East China spot was 7100 yuan/ton (+20), the LL North China basis was 28 yuan/ton (-6), the LL East China basis was 78 yuan/ton (+64), and the PP East China basis was 140 yuan/ton (+1) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate was 77.4% (+0.6%), the PP operating rate was 77.0% (+1.6%), the PE oil - based production profit was 187.4 yuan/ton (+28.1), the PP oil - based production profit was - 92.6 yuan/ton (+28.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit was - 117.3 yuan/ton (+4.8) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit was - 302.5 yuan/ton (+13.2), the PP import profit was - 472.3 yuan/ton (+3.1), and the PP export profit was 16.1 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 12.9% (-0.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 48.9% (+0.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.7% (-0.5%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.4% (+0.7%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The petrochemical inventory increased, and the upstream factory inventory and trader inventory were slowly destocked [2]