Report Information - Report Title: Commodities Weekly Report - Report Date: December 22, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week, with the black sector leading the gain at 3.04%, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12%. The liquidity environment is generally favorable, and the commodity market may run stably in the short - term [2][6]. - The dovish interest rate hike in Japan supported the US dollar index, but after the release of US economic and inflation data last week, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased, and short - term US dollar liquidity may remain stable. In China, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment and social retail sales slowed down in November, and economic growth continued to slow down moderately [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different short - term trends. The precious metals sector may be volatile and bullish; the non - ferrous metals sector may run stably; the black sector may fluctuate; the energy sector may fluctuate; the chemical sector's rebound space may be limited; and the agricultural products (oilseeds) sector may fluctuate [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The overall commodity market rose slightly by 0.09% last week. The black, precious metals, energy - chemical, and non - ferrous sectors rose by 3.04%, 1.9%, 0.91%, and 0.79% respectively, while the agricultural product sector fell by 2.12% [2][6]. - **Top - Gaining and Top - Losing Varieties**: The top - gaining varieties were coking coal (9%), coke (8.31%), and PTA (4.45%); the top - losing varieties were rapeseed oil (- 6.45%), soybean oil (- 3.53%), and apples (- 3.36%) [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, with only the agricultural product and precious metals sectors showing mainly declining volatility [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale decreased slightly last week, and the non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and black sectors all had net capital outflows [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data last week showed an economic cooling trend, and the November CPI data decline exceeded expectations. The core CPI reached a new low since March 2021. Fed Chair candidates Hasset and Waller believe there is still room for interest rate cuts. The sector may be volatile and bullish in the short - term [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Overseas economic data is weak, interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar index is under pressure, with the macro environment generally positive. The inventory continued to decline last week, but the decline rate narrowed, and the spot premium was mainly weakening. However, there is still a risk of smelting contraction. The sector may run stably in the short - term [3]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, the decline in hot metal production is still large, but steel mill profits are showing marginal improvement, and the production - cut trend may slow down. For raw materials, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year, and the domestic arrival volume rebounded; the total coking coal inventory increased slightly. After the oversold rebound, the market sentiment has become cautious, and the sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Energy Sector**: The Berlin negotiation between the US and Ukraine last week was very positive, leading to market concerns that an agreement may increase the supply pressure of Russian oil. EIA data showed that although crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline and distillate oil inventories increased unexpectedly. The supply - loose pattern always puts pressure on oil prices. However, the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical issue may bring phased risk premiums. Oil prices may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester varieties, the expectation of tight supply led to a significant increase in PX positions and price. Stimulated by raw material price increases, downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices, and polyester filament inventory decreased. The short - term polyester start - up rate will be maintained, but it is expected to decline later due to mid - line inventory accumulation and the Spring Festival factor. The short - term cost support is strong, but the rebound space may be limited under the background of a downward demand period [4]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Recently, the weather in South America has continued to improve, and the probability of La Nina turning into ENSO neutral in the first quarter of next year is 68%. The trading logic has returned to concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper harvest in South America. The US soybean futures price has fallen back to the previous bottom range, and soybean meal may follow the adjustment in the short - term. The global rapeseed supply - demand pattern is loose, and the weak rapeseed oil has also led to the weakening of soybean and palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil market still faces high inventory pressure. Although the production decreased month - on - month in November, the decline was small, and the demand was even worse. The oilseeds sector may fluctuate in the short - term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with the total return of gold ETFs at 0.07%. The returns of individual gold ETFs such as Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold ETF and Tianhong Shanghai Gold ETF were 1.16% and 0.98% respectively [38]. - The energy - chemical ETF (Jianxin Yisheng Zhengshang Energy Chemical Futures ETF) had a return of 2.71% [38]. - The soybean meal ETF (Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return of - 1.32% [38]. - The non - ferrous ETF (Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metals Futures ETF) had a return of - 0.66% [38]. - The silver fund (Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return of 3.47% [38]. - The total return of commodity ETFs was 0.24% [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The price spread between hot-rolled and rebar steel is at its lowest level in six years [3] - The liquidity indicators show that gold prices have reached a new high since November 2025, with the current price at 4341 USD/oz [10] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a decline in high furnace capacity utilization, which has been below last year's levels for three consecutive weeks [23] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [10] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference is -3.1 percentage points, down 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [19] - The current London gold spot price is 4341 USD/oz, reflecting a 0.97% increase from the previous week [10] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is 85%, down 1.0 percentage points month-on-month [9] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in national real estate new construction area for January to November 2025 is -20.50% [23] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales area for January to November 2025 is -7.80% [23] Price Movements - The price of rebar is currently 3320 CNY/ton, reflecting a 2.15% increase [9] - The price of titanium dioxide is 13000 CNY/ton, with a gross profit of -1795 CNY/ton [78] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 21840 CNY/ton, down 1.04% month-on-month [9] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November 2025 is 47.60%, up 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [3] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping prices is 1124.73 points, reflecting a 0.60% increase [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 76.50%, up 0.80 percentage points month-on-month [3] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.28%, while the chemical sector showed the best performance with a 2.58% increase [4] - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai Composite is currently at 0.51, with a historical high of 0.82 [4] - The report suggests that the steel sector's supply may be reasonably constrained, leading to a potential recovery in profitability to historical average levels [4]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | C | 回顾:上周央行公开市场开展了6575亿元逆回购操作,因当周有6685亿 元逆回购到期,当周实现净回笼110亿元。此外,上周有4000亿元182天 期买断式逆回购到期、800亿元国库现金定存到期,央行开展了6000亿元 182天期买断式逆回购操作。值得一提的是,央行在周四、周五各开展了 1000亿元14天期逆回购操作。 性 宏观金融数据日报 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 2025/12/22 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.27 | -0.11 | DR007 | 1.44 | 0.21 | | ह | GC001 | 1.48 | 26.00 | GC007 | 1.57 | 6.50 | | 币 | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | -0.08 | LP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tax period funds remained loose this week, and the central bank's care for cross - year liquidity led to a significant decline in short - term interest rates, raising market expectations for interest rate cuts. The interest rate cut may occur in March - April 2026 [4][35][41] - The issuance of government bonds in 2025 is nearing completion. The net financing forecast for December treasury bonds is adjusted upwards to 335.2 billion yuan, and the net financing scale of local bonds in December is expected to be about 230 billion yuan. The supply pressure of local bonds in Q1 2026 may be slightly lower than that in Q1 2025 [6][56][59] - Next week, the net payment scale of government bonds will rise, but the exogenous disturbances in the capital market may decrease, and the loose liquidity state is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to whether the average value of DR001 in December can fall below 1.3% [9][45][69] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monetary Market 3.1.1 This Week's Capital Situation Review - The central bank's 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 1.1 billion yuan this week. On Monday, 80 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured, and the central bank conducted a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation, with an excess renewal of 200 billion yuan. Despite tax - period disturbances, funds remained loose, and DR001 was maintained at around 1.27% [3][15] - The trading volume of pledged repurchase oscillated upwards, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 0.4 trillion yuan to 8.48 trillion yuan compared to last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase continued to rise, approaching the historical high in early July. The net lending of large - scale banks oscillated and slightly declined, while that of joint - stock banks and city commercial banks oscillated and rose, especially joint - stock banks reaching a new high since August last year. The overall rigid net lending of banks also continued to rise. The rigid net lending of non - banks first decreased and then increased, with an overall slight decline. The capital gap index oscillated and declined [4][22] - The cross - year progress of funds this year is late. As of Friday, the cross - year progress of the inter - bank and exchange markets is only higher than that in 2024, and the gap with previous years is widening. The cross - year progress of the entire market is 7.6%, 5.5 percentage points lower than the average of 20 - 24 [31] - The short - term interest rates represented by 1 - year policy financial bonds and IRS ended a multi - quarter continuous oscillation and significantly declined, reflecting market expectations of a downward shift in the capital interest rate center and an increase in interest rate cut expectations [35] 3.1.2 Next Week's Capital Outlook - The net payment scale of government bonds will rise from 1.61 billion yuan this week to 366.6 billion yuan. The 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity scale will decrease from 668.5 billion yuan to 457.5 billion yuan. On December 25, 300 billion yuan of MLF will mature, and the central bank is expected to continue to renew it in excess [45][69] - The new shares of Hengdongguang on the Beijing Stock Exchange will be issued online on December 23, which may cause some disturbances to the exchange capital price from Tuesday to Wednesday. After the tax period, the exogenous disturbances in the capital market may decrease, and the loose liquidity state is expected to continue [9] 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate remained unchanged at 1.65% compared to December 12. The secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 2.5 BP to 1.64% compared to last week [70] - The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased more than the maturity scale this week, with a net repayment scale of 69 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.5 billion yuan compared to last week. The net financing scales of joint - stock banks, rural commercial banks, state - owned banks, and city commercial banks were 43.1 billion yuan, 22.2 billion yuan, - 119.7 billion yuan, and - 23 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 3 - month certificates of deposit was the highest at 34%, and the issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit increased by 2 percentage points to 17% compared to last week. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 868.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 196.2 billion yuan compared to this week [10][73] - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks and joint - stock banks increased compared to last week, while those of rural commercial banks and city commercial banks decreased. Except for state - owned banks with a relatively high issuance success rate, the others are near the average level in recent years. The issuance spread of 1 - year certificates of deposit between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened [75] - The relative supply - demand strength index of certificates of deposit continued to rise this week, reaching 40.5% on Friday, an increase of 6.7 percentage points compared to last week. The supply - demand index of 1 - year varieties decreased significantly, while those of other tenors continued to rise [83] 3.3 Bill Market - Bill interest rates first rose and then fell this week. As of December 19, the 3 - month bill interest rate of national joint - stock banks increased by 4 BP to 0.49% compared to December 12, and the 6 - month bill interest rate decreased by 1 BP to 0.89% [89] 3.4 Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market oscillated strongly this week, and the spreads of credit bonds and perpetual bonds continued to widen. The willingness of large - scale banks to increase bond holdings weakened, especially for treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit within 1 year. They tended to reduce holdings of local bonds and policy financial bonds within 1 year, but the willingness to reduce holdings of perpetual bonds decreased, and they tended to increase holdings of commercial paper [92] - The overall willingness of trading - type institutions to increase bond holdings declined significantly. Among them, the willingness of fund companies and other products to increase holdings decreased significantly, the willingness of securities companies to reduce holdings increased slightly, and the willingness of other institutions to increase holdings increased [92]

小红书这篇谈名校博主价值的文章，很有借鉴意义，几个点都能平行映射到币圈 KOL 身上1/ 和国内自媒体的名校博主一样，币圈 KOL 无法独立操盘，更加没有能力进行市场化创业。大部分留守者不仅无法向外做大蛋糕，还会导致原有的蛋糕份额进一步萎缩（也就是嘴撸）。按 @Solomon_Nahhh 的说法，就是 KOL 通胀，或者说是博主通胀。虽然 KOL 越来越多了，但是市场上的流动性越来越少了，优质项目也越来越少了2/ 大部分币圈 KOL 的内容路径：擦边卖肉、AI 投研、广告带货、交易观点、宏观分析。随着二级市场的萎靡不振以及圈内信息的逐渐透明化，加之市场缺乏创新，每个人在成为他人信息茧房的强化，缺乏有价值的独立观点3/ 币圈 KOL 的一大隐性变现形式是利用婚恋市场变现，MCN 进场走雌竞路线（炒作 cp 擦边等）靠卖肉吸引币圈性压抑老哥，这确实也是公开的秘密了。可以看到这次 BBW 大批过来和 CZ 一姐合照的美女面孔，他们真的向墙内叠码吸引新鲜血液了吗？扯淡，墙内关键词都被大封杀了。这些美女，在推特卷存量，到头来吸引的还是币圈自己的流量，本质就是来吃币圈流动性的，不创造任何价值最后一点也同样，币圈面临的就是 ...

证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 年末存单利率或迎下行拐点 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：税期，资金面继续平稳 12月 15-19日，税期资金面依旧维持低位运行。周内来看，15日为税期首日， 2000 亿元 6M 买断式逆回购净投放落地，同时为保持资金利率稳定，央行在短期资 金投放上维持常规续作安排。尽管如此，税期期间隔夜利率 R001 始终维持在 1.34- 1.35%水平，7 天资金 R007 也基本稳定于 1.50%附近。 税期之后，跨年因素接替成为影响资金面的主要逻辑。18 日起拆借 14 天资金 可跨年，除了常规续作 7 天逆回购以外，央行连续两日额外投放 1000 亿元 14 天逆 回购，呵护跨年资金面，进一步推动了资金宽松预期。受此影响，18-19日 R014仅 小幅上行 7bp 至 1.62%，跨年压力整体可控。与此同时，隔夜与 7 天资金利率仍延 续此前稳态，日均波动不足 1bp，R001、R007 分别收于 1.35%、1.51%。 ►展望：年末存单利率或迎 ...

（来源：吴说） 作者：@agintender 当 BUSD 被推上历史舞台，它承载的不只是合规叙事，更是币安试图用高压手段重塑稳定币秩序的野 心——通过强制汇率、合并交易对，把竞争对手的深度直接吞进自己的账本。 2022 年的"自动转换"，是一场教科书级别的闪击战；而 2023 年情人节的监管铁拳，则让这个看似无懈 可击的帝国瞬间崩塌。双生的 BUSD 、影子般的 Binance-Peg 、监管边界的错位，共同构成了它的阿喀 琉斯之踵。 但故事并未就此结束。 从 FDUSD 到 BFUSD ，再到 United Stables （ $U ），币安并未放弃稳定币，而是在失败中进化，从霸 权式统一转向聚合式吞噬，甚至提前为 AI 经济铺路。 这是一篇关于稳定币的文章，更是一部交易所权力如何试图驯服市场、又被监管反噬的商战纪实。 第一章：热血与霸权—— BUSD 的"大一统"往事 BUSD 的故事不仅仅是合规产品的兴衰，更是一段关于交易所如何试图通过行政手段统一市场流动性 的"帝王术"。 链接：https://x.com/agintender/status/2001865496464101733 声明：本文为转载内 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 12 月 19 日 美联储如期降息，国内 ETF 转为净流出 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（1219） 上周二级市场可跟踪资金净流入，其中融资仍作为主力增量资金。上周美联储 如期降息 25bp，整体内容基本符合市场对"鹰派降息"的预期，并且重新开启 扩表、启用 RMP 补充流动性。往后看，需要关注即将公布的日本央行利率决定， 流动性的变化将持续影响市场走势。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场 SCP 范式研究之一》， 2017 年 10 月 3. 《保险资金股票投资风险因子 下调如何影响 A 股？——金融市 场流动性与监管动态周报 （1209）》 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 111.10↑ | | ETF 净申购 | 31.16↑ | | 融资净买入 | 76.43↓ | | 资金需求 | | | 限售解禁 | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【C 国贸易所得 宏观金融数据日报 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 2025/12/19 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | | DROO1 | 1.27 | -0.14 | DR007 | 1.44 | -0.31 | | | GC001 | 1.22 | -39.50 | GC007 | 1.51 | -4.00 | | | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | 0.20 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1-102 | 1年期国债 | 1.37 | -0.73 | 5年期国债 | 1.61 | -0.66 | | ﻟ | 10年期国债 | 1.83 | -0.29 | 10年期美债 | 4.16 | 1.00 | | T | | 回顾。中行昨日开展了883亿元7天期进回购授作 ...

日央行大概率加息，A 股内部预期产生分歧 2025 年 12 月 19 日 股指期货早报 2025.12.19 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 11 月未季调 CPI 年率录得 2.7%，低于预期 3.1%； 上周初请失业金人数录得 22.4 万人；低于预期 22.5 和前值 23.7 万 人。美通胀数据支持美联储鸽派的降息，美 1 月降息预期小幅上升。 隔夜资产走势来看，美元指数先跌后涨最终收涨，美债收益率短端和 长端小幅回落，黄金上涨后下跌最终收跌，美三大股指均大震荡走势 阴线收涨。纳斯达克中国金龙指数上涨，离岸人民币汇率升值。隔夜 外围表现中性。 国内盘面上看，周四大盘低开震荡上涨 0.16%，深成指下跌 1.29%，创业板指下跌 2.17%，市场呈现震荡分化走势。大盘主要是银 行和两桶油贡献，板块间呈现轮动，商业航天和消费走强，但算力硬 件又走弱，主要受外围拖累。板块上看，银行、煤炭、石油石化、军 工、轻工制造涨幅居前，电力设备、通信、电子、汽车跌幅居前。全 市场 2843 只个股上涨，2413 只个股下跌。消息上看，商务部办公厅、 财政部办公厅印发《关于做好消费新业态新模式新场景试点有关工作 的通知》。 ...