Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the situation where neither supply nor demand can provide strong drivers, the price trend of industrial silicon shows a pattern of "stable spot prices and fluctuating futures prices." The futures price fluctuations mainly come from cost change expectations, capital sentiment, and event disturbances. Limited supply reduction, insufficient demand, and high inventory are important constraints on price breakthroughs, while cost is an important support at the lower end. The futures price may experience short - term pulse - type increases but lacks a sustainable trend. In the short term, the industrial silicon price is likely to remain range - bound. To achieve a trending market, new drivers are needed [1][30]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Supply - side Situation - In the southwest region, after entering the dry season, due to rising electricity prices and increased costs, the operating rates of some factories in Yunnan and Sichuan have significantly decreased. The weekly output has dropped by about 50% from the annual high, which is in line with seasonal characteristics. In the northwest region, production remains strong. Due to the advantage of coal - power costs and the ability to use hedging tools, enterprises can maintain a relatively high operating rate. As a result, the weekly national total output has decreased by less than 10% from the annual high. It is estimated that there is still some room for production decline in the southwest region. According to statistics, the production cost in Xinjiang is about 8,500 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that in the southwest region. If the northwest region maintains its operation, the overall production contraction is expected to be limited, and the impact of weather on production in the northwest needs to be monitored [6]. Demand - side Situation - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures market focuses on warehouse receipts and the establishment of platform companies, with the near - month prices showing strength. However, from the perspective of the industrial chain supply - demand, the marginal change is not optimistic. In December, the production schedule of the downstream silicon wafer segment is 45.7GW, a decrease of about 16% compared to November's 54.37GW. The production schedule of the silicon material segment is 11.35 tons, with a limited month - on - month decline. The polysilicon inventory of silicon enterprises has reached 28 tons, and the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is increasing. Although the silicon material price is temporarily stable, with N - type material quoted at 50,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, it is mainly a strategic price - holding behavior. If the platform company is established, the industry operating rate is expected to remain controlled, and the actual demand for industrial silicon will be insufficient [17]. - **Organic silicon**: The organic silicon industry has a greater impact on the industrial silicon market in terms of sentiment and expectations. After facing profit pressure and weak prices, the industry held a meeting, established a coordination mechanism, and planned to implement a production - reduction plan in early December, while also raising the spot price. Before December, the production of organic silicon DMC showed a slight increase, and the subsequent production - reduction plan is expected to have a relatively limited impact on the demand for industrial silicon. After the downstream profit is restored, the willingness to suppress the price of upstream raw materials may decrease, which will improve the price expectation of industrial silicon to some extent. However, if the production - reduction plan is fully implemented, the procurement of industrial silicon will be difficult to increase in a certain period [22]. - **Silicon - aluminum alloy and exports**: Driven by the industrial manufacturing and automotive industries, the operating rate of aluminum alloy has recently increased. After the end of the export rush, the export of industrial silicon decreased significantly in October, which cannot change the overall weak demand pattern [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, with the potential positive impact of Iranian plant shutdowns materializing, the market has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term bottom is expected to have emerged. However, high supply will limit further upward movement, and the market is likely to shift to a sideways adjustment. It's recommended to wait and see on the single - side and focus on positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads [4]. - For urea, the price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. With supply remaining high and demand improving, the inventory is decreasing. It's suggested to consider buying at low prices [6][8]. - For rubber, a neutral stance is taken currently. It's recommended to wait and see or engage in short - term trading. Holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [10]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, but short - term valuation has dropped to a low level. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before substantial industry production cuts [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair potential. When the inventory reversal point occurs, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC + plan to pause production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The long - term strategy is to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. - For polypropylene, in a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in Q1 next year [22]. - For PX, it is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in December. Attention should be paid to opportunities for going long on dips [25]. - For PTA, supply disruptions are expected to decrease as processing fees stabilize. There are opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations [26][27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium term. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 4.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.06%, to 455.70 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed gasoline inventory increased by 0.84 million barrels to 8.98 million barrels (up 10.36% month - on - month), diesel inventory decreased by 1.19 million barrels to 15.08 million barrels (down 7.29% month - on - month), etc. [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a low - buy and high - sell range strategy, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Prices in Taicang, Lunan, and Inner Mongolia increased. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 1 yuan to 2136 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 21 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 96 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom is expected to have emerged. The market may shift to a sideways adjustment, and focus on positive spread opportunities for inter - month spreads [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei increased. The 01 - contract on the futures market fell 2 yuan to 1675 yuan, with a basis of - 5 and a 1 - 5 spread of - 69 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. Consider buying at low prices [6][8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fell with a short - term technical breakdown. Thai rubber - producing areas' floods receded. Exchange RU inventory was low. As of November 27, 2025, Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tire开工率 was 63.91%, up 3.34 percentage points from last week; semi - steel tire开工率 was 72.37%, down 0.40 percentage points from last week [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral stance, wait and see, or engage in short - term trading. Hold a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 4 yuan to 4553 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and ethylene increased, while caustic soda prices decreased. The overall开工率 was 80.2%, up 1.4% [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak. A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before substantial industry production cuts [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price was also unchanged, with the basis widening. The spot price of styrene was unchanged, and the futures price fell, with the basis strengthening. The non - integrated profit of styrene decreased, and the port inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with significant upward valuation repair potential. When the inventory reversal point occurs, go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price rose. The upstream开工率 was 84.12%, down 0.05%. The inventory of production enterprises and traders decreased. The downstream average开工率 was 44.8%, up 0.11% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: OPEC +'s plan may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The long - term strategy is to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price fell. The upstream开工率 was 77.97%, up 0.8%. The inventory of production enterprises, traders, and ports decreased. The downstream average开工率 was 53.7%, up 0.13% [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In a context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in Q1 next year [22]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract rose 100 yuan to 6930 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 13 dollars to 849 dollars. The Chinese PX负荷 was 88.3%, down 1.2%; the Asian PX负荷 was 78.7%, down 1% [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect a slight inventory build - up in December. Pay attention to opportunities for going long on dips [25]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract rose 62 yuan to 4762 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 75 yuan to 4710 yuan. The PTA负荷 was 73.7%, up 2.7% [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions are expected to decrease as processing fees stabilize. There are opportunities for going long on dips based on expectations [26][27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 3882 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 19 yuan to 3901 yuan. The supply - side负荷 was 73.1%, up 2.3%. The port inventory increased by 2.1 tons to 75.3 tons [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium term. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][4][7][10][12][15][16][17][19] 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and adopt a low - buying strategy on pullbacks. Monitor macro changes and supply - side recovery [1] Nickel Industry - Macro sentiment has slightly improved. Short - term upstream production cuts and valuation provide some support, but the upward drive is limited. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price will decline next month, and fundamental pressure restricts the upside space of prices. Expect the market to trade in a range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [3] Stainless Steel Industry - Policy - driven changes are difficult to have a direct impact in the short term. Fundamentals show limited improvement, cost support is weakening, demand is sluggish, and inventory reduction is difficult. The market is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,700. Follow the implementation of steel mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [4] Lithium Industry - The lithium carbonate futures market is in a wide - range shock, and market divergence is increasing. The main contract is expected to remain in a wide - range shock in the short term, with larger intraday fluctuations. Pay attention to the sustainability of demand improvement during the year - end off - season [7] Zinc Industry - As the TC declines and the export space opens up, the supply pressure eases. The downside space of short - term prices is limited, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. Prices are likely to trade in a range. Monitor the TC inflection point, refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [10] Copper Industry - In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts, with the main contract support at 86,000 - 87,000 [12] Aluminum Industry - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - range shock, with the main contract reference range of 2,650 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract reference range of 21,400 - 22,000 yuan/ton. Monitor the latest trends in the Fed's monetary policy and the sustainability of domestic inventory reduction [15] Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy market is supported by costs and demand. Short - term prices remain strong, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton. Focus on the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction [16] Industrial Silicon Industry - The industrial silicon price is expected to remain in a low - range shock, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the downstream start - up changes and the impact of the inflow of cancelled warehouse receipts into the spot market [17] Polysilicon Industry - In December, the polysilicon market is expected to have oversupply and inventory accumulation. Futures trading should be on hold, and put options can be bought when volatility is low [19] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 300,000 yuan/ton (-0.60%), and LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 2.50%. The import loss improved slightly [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2603 - 2604 decreased, while those of 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603 increased [1] - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and average smelting start - up rate increased, while refined tin imports and exports decreased [1] - **Inventory**: SHEF, social, and LME inventories all increased [1] Nickel Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose by 0.42%, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.15% [3] - **Electrowinning Nickel Costs**: The costs of integrated MHP and external - procurement methods decreased, while that of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [3] - **New Energy Material Prices**: Battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 0.32%, and battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.95% [3] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2601 - 2602, 2603 - 2604 increased, and that of 2602 - 2603 decreased [3] - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production increased slightly, imports decreased significantly, and SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME and bonded - area inventories decreased [3] Stainless Steel Industry - **Prices and Basis**: 304/2B stainless steel prices were stable or slightly decreased, and the spot - futures spread increased by 9.78% [4] - **Raw Material Prices**: Most raw material prices were stable, and the 8 - 12% high - grade nickel - iron price decreased slightly [4] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2602 - 2603 decreased, and those of 2603 - 2604 increased [4] - **Fundamentals**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, imports increased, exports decreased, and social inventories increased [4] Lithium Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.48%, and lithium spodumene concentrate price increased by 2.13% [7] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 decreased, and those of 2601 - 2602, 2601 - 2603 increased [7] - **Fundamentals**: In November, lithium carbonate production increased, and in October, demand, imports, and exports increased [7] - **Inventory**: In October, total and downstream lithium carbonate inventories decreased, and smelter inventories decreased slightly [7] Zinc Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.36%, and the import loss improved [10] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 decreased, and those of 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604 increased [10] - **Fundamentals**: In November, refined zinc production decreased, in October, imports decreased, and exports increased significantly. The start - up rates of primary processing industries were basically stable [10] - **Inventory**: Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased [10] Copper Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.36%, and the refined - scrap copper spread increased by 13.03% [12] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602 increased, and that of 2602 - 2603 decreased [12] - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production and imports decreased. The start - up rates of copper rod production decreased [12] - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased, and LME and COMEX inventories increased [12] Aluminum Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased slightly, and the import loss improved [15] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, 2602 - 2603, 2603 - 2604 increased [15] - **Fundamentals**: In November, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and in October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased slightly and exports decreased [15] - **Inventory**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased, and LME inventory decreased slightly [15] Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices were stable, and most refined - scrap spreads decreased [16] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602 decreased, and that of 2602 - 2603 increased [16] - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy production decreased, and primary aluminum alloy production increased. The start - up rates of regenerated aluminum alloy decreased, and that of primary aluminum alloy increased [16] - **Inventory**: Regenerated aluminum alloy social and daily inventories decreased [16] Industrial Silicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Most industrial silicon spot prices were stable, and the basis of some varieties decreased [17] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 increased, and those of 2603 - 2604, 2604 - 2605 changed significantly [17] - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production decreased, especially in Yunnan and Sichuan. Organic silicon DMC production increased, and polysilicon production decreased [17] - **Inventory**: Xinjiang factory inventory increased slightly, and social inventory increased slightly [17] Polysilicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, and the N - type material basis decreased [19] - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main futures contract price increased by 2.15%, and the spreads of different contracts changed [19] - **Fundamentals**: Weekly and monthly polysilicon production decreased, imports increased slightly, and exports decreased. Silicon wafer production and demand decreased [19] - **Inventory**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased, and polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased significantly [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, ethylene glycol, urea, asphalt, soda ash [1][3][5] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol, natural gas [3][5] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, glass [1][5] - **Bearish Continuation**: Soda ash [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season dominates. Geopolitical tensions ease, and prices are under pressure. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [1][8]. - **LPG**: Saudi Arabia raises CP contract price, but the market has priced it in. There is short - term correction pressure. Consider buying put options [1]. - **L**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PP**: 12 - month CP quote rises, providing cost support. Supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure. Close short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PVC**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed. Social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support. Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PX/PTA**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. Consider going long on dips [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure may ease with future device maintenance, but there is a cumulative inventory expectation in December. Lack of upward drivers, consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory is decreasing, but supply pressure is still high. Consider going long on 05 contract on dips [3]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas. Consider short positions on rebounds [3]. - **Natural Gas**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand is supported, and prices are likely to rise [5]. - **Asphalt**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are under pressure. Continue to hold short positions [5]. - **Glass**: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans. Short - term may be strong, but long - term is bearish [5]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak. Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On November 27, WTI decreased by 0.17%, Brent decreased by 0.78%, and SC increased by 1.30% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply surplus in the off - season, and geopolitical tensions ease [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply: US oil rig count decreases, and Mexican oil production declines. Demand: OPEC expects global oil demand to increase in 2025 and 2026. Inventory: US crude and refined product inventories increase [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [450 - 460] [10]. 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On November 28, the PG main contract closed at 4361 yuan/ton, up 2.16% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, downstream demand is resilient, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase the rise, buy put options. Pay attention to the range of PG [4350 - 4450] [13]. 3.3 L - **Market Review**: L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, but supply is sufficient, and demand weakens after November [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [18]. 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: 12 - month CP quote rises, supply is under pressure, and there is a high de - stocking pressure [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [22]. 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton [25]. - **Basic Logic**: Chlor - alkali profit is compressed, social inventory is high, but there is low - valuation support [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions based on capital dynamics and long - term long positions after inventory de - stocking. Pay attention to the range of V [4500 - 4700] [26]. 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 4752 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Processing fees are low, supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and downstream demand is good. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4650 - 4740] [29]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based ethylene glycol device starts to increase, but future integrated device maintenance will ease supply pressure. There is a cumulative inventory expectation in December [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3850 - 3920] [32]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Not explicitly mentioned. - **Basic Logic**: Taicang spot strengthens, port inventory decreases, supply pressure is high, and demand improves [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to pay attention to going long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the range of MA [2105 - 2145] [38]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: URO5 closed at 1743 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is large, demand is weak domestically and strong overseas, and inventory is high [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1640 - 1680] [41]. 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 27, the NG main contract closed at 4.850 dollars/million British thermal units, up 6.41% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: EU bans Russian gas imports, entering the consumption peak season, and demand is supported [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gas prices are likely to rise. Pay attention to the range of NG [4.680 - 5.000] [45]. 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 28, the BU main contract closed at 2996 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [48]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is linked to crude oil, supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2950 - 3050] [50]. 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton [53]. - **Basic Logic**: Multiple production lines plan cold - repair in December, but demand is weak [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to cold - repair implementation. Short - term may be strong, long - term is bearish. Pay attention to the range of FG [1020 - 1070] [54]. 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton [57]. - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is in a long - term high - production cycle, and demand is weak [58]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread and wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the range of SA [1140 - 1180] [58].

Group 1: Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. With the weakening of the hype about domestic production cuts and overseas floods, the supply is expected to increase seasonally, and the terminal demand improvement is weak. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material output in the peak production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex increased, and the basis of whole latex also changed. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased slightly, and there were also changes in non - standard price differences and raw material prices [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: There were changes in the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads of natural rubber contracts [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of Thailand, Indonesia, and India decreased to varying degrees, and the production of China increased. The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased, and in October, domestic tire production, export volume, and natural rubber import volume all decreased [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and there were also changes in the outbound and inbound rates of dry rubber in Qingdao [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Affected by the repeated Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations and Trump's threat to Venezuela, short - term geopolitical factors still support oil prices. However, under the pressure of continuous production increase by OPEC+ and the record - high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and Brent crude oil may fluctuate between $60 - 65 per barrel in the short term [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of US gasoline, European gasoline, Singapore gasoline, etc. changed [3]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Soda Ash**: Although the production of soda ash has decreased significantly due to some device overhauls, and the manufacturer's inventory has decreased, there is still an over - supply problem in the medium term, and the overall demand is in a contraction pattern. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern [5]. - **Glass**: In the short term, there is still some rigid demand support, but in the medium and long term, the demand is expected to shrink, and the glass price will be under pressure. The short - term disk is expected to be strong, but the 01 contract may face pressure when approaching the delivery month [5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Glass - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China changed, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of glass futures contracts [5]. - **Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained stable, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of soda ash futures contracts [5]. - **Supply**: The operating rate and weekly output of soda ash decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass also decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass and soda ash decreased, and the inventory days of soda ash in glass factories remained unchanged [5]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate showed different trends [5]. Group 4: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The supply of inland methanol increases with the restart of devices, but the profits of coal - based and gas - based production are weak. The traditional downstream operating rate has increased slightly, and winter fuel demand provides support. In the port area, due to gas restrictions in Iran, multiple devices have stopped production, and the import volume in the first quarter is expected to decline significantly, strengthening the port destocking expectation and providing bottom support for prices [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Methanol Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and spot prices in different regions changed, and there were also changes in spreads such as MA15 and regional spreads [6]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises increased, while the port inventory and social inventory decreased [6]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased, the operating rate of downstream MTO devices decreased, and the operating rates of some traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde increased [6][7]. Group 5: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase after maintenance, the inventory is being depleted faster but is still higher than in previous years, and the cost - side profit is compressed. The operating load of polyethylene is gradually increasing, the supply is on the rise, and the upstream inventory is being depleted faster but is still higher than the same period. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [9]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Polyolefin Price and Spread**: The prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 futures contracts increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as L15, PP15, and LP01 [9]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The enterprise inventories of PE and PP decreased, and the trading - company inventory of PP also decreased [9]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE devices increased, the downstream weighted operating rate decreased slightly; the operating rate of PP devices decreased slightly, the operating rate of PP powder increased, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased slightly [9]. Group 6: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Pure Benzene**: Although the supply - demand expectation has slightly improved due to some device overhauls, the current spot supply is sufficient, and there is an expectation of port inventory accumulation. The demand - side support is limited, and it is expected that the price of pure benzene will face pressure on the upside. Short - term BZ2603 is recommended to be short on rebounds [11]. - **Styrene**: Although some integrated devices are under centralized overhaul, the overall operating rate is stable, and the supply is expected to remain. The demand support is limited, but the inventory accumulation expectation is not obvious at the end and beginning of the month. Overall, the supply - demand of styrene is in a tight balance, but the upward driving force is insufficient. Short - term EB01 is expected to oscillate between 6300 - 6600 [11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Upstream Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China pure benzene changed, and there were also changes in price differences such as pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha [11]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene futures contracts and spot prices increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as EB01 - EB02 and EB - BZ [11]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash Flow**: The cash flows of downstream products such as phenol, caprolactam, and aniline changed [11]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The port inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu increased [11]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Asian pure benzene, domestic pure benzene, and some downstream products changed [11]. Group 7: Ester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **PX**: Although the supply is currently at a relatively high level, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. The demand - side support is stronger than expected. Short - term PX is expected to oscillate at a high level, and there is an expectation of improvement in the medium - term supply - demand [12]. - **PTA**: The supply reduction is greater than expected, and the demand - side support is strong. The supply - demand expectation has been significantly repaired, but the price rebound space is limited. TA01 may oscillate between 4500 - 4800 in the short term, and attention can be paid to the low - level positive spread opportunity of TA5 - 9 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The supply - side contraction is not obvious, and the demand is supported by rigid demand. It is expected to oscillate in December, and EG2601 may oscillate between 3750 - 4000 [12]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand is weak. Although the inventory pressure is not large in the short term, the absolute price driving force is limited, and the processing fee is mainly under compression. PFO2 is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the PF processing fee on the disk is recommended to be shorted on highs [12]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand is loose, and the social inventory is likely to accumulate seasonally. PR follows the cost - side fluctuation, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed [12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **Upstream Price**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene changed [12]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of CFR China PX, PX futures contracts, and PX price differences changed [12]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The prices of PTA spot and futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in the basis and processing fees [12]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectation**: The MEG port inventory remained unchanged, and the arrival expectation decreased [12]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and other industries changed [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry is still under pressure, the demand - side support is weak, and it is expected that the price of caustic soda will run weakly [13]. - **PVC**: It is expected to continue the oscillating pattern. The supply pressure remains, the demand is sluggish, and although there is an advantage in export prices, the overall demand - side support is weak, and the price is difficult to rise significantly [13]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **PVC, Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and East China calcium - carbide - based PVC changed, and there were also changes in the prices and spreads of PVC and caustic soda futures contracts [13]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation & Export Profit**: The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased, and the export profit decreased [13]. - **PVC Overseas Quotation & Export Profit**: The CFR prices of PVC in Southeast Asia and India decreased, and the export profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC in Tianjin Port changed [13]. - **Supply: Chlor - Alkali Operating Rate & Industry Profit**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased, and the profits of calcium - carbide - based PVC and northwest integrated PVC decreased [13]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of the alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries changed [13]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased, and the pre - sales volume of PVC decreased [13]. - **Inventory: Social Inventory & Annual**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC decreased [13]. Group 9: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Not provided Summary According to Relevant Catalogs - **LPG Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures contracts such as PG2512, PG2601, etc. increased, and there were also changes in spreads such as PG12 - 01, PG12 - 02, etc. [14]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The prices of FEI forward M1, M2 contracts and CP swap M1, M2 contracts decreased [14]. - **LPG Inventory**: The refinery storage ratio and port inventory of LPG decreased [14]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of upstream main refineries decreased, the sample enterprise's weekly sales - to - production ratio decreased, the operating rate of downstream PDH increased slightly, the operating rate of MTBE remained unchanged, and the operating rate of alkylation decreased [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week's view on PE is that the decline in price has not significantly compressed the valuation, monomers have rebounded slightly, and there are expectations of increased supply and decreased demand. The overall supply of PE is loose, with a 16% growth in total effective production capacity and an 18% increase in domestic production. Although imports have declined year - on - year, the ample supply is suppressing prices. The total PE operating rate is 84.5% (+1.8%). [6] - On the demand side, the operating rate of the agricultural film industry has started to decline, and orders are mostly coming to an end. The packaging film market has limited support from the e - commerce festival, and the operating rates of PE packaging film, PE pipes, and PE hollow products have all decreased. [7] - The cost - end support for PE is average. The downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid demand support, but considering the decline in the agricultural film operating rate and the increasing supply pressure at the end of the year, the market supply - demand pattern is not optimistic. Q4 may gradually enter a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, putting pressure on prices. [8] - Valuation shows that production profits are generally compressed, and the valuation compression in the monomer segment is the most obvious. The profit margins of MTO and ethylene - purchasing processes have slightly declined. In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short position on rebounds for single - sided trading, with the 01 contract having an upper pressure level of 6900 and 7000 and a lower support level of 6750. Cross - period and cross - variety trading are not recommended for now. [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyethylene Spread and Profit - **Price and Spread**: The futures price has declined, the basis in East and South China is relatively strong, and the basis in North China has gradually recovered. The monthly spread is oscillating at a low level. The Chinese CIF price has dropped by $5 - 10. The US market has stopped falling and stabilized, with low - pressure injection molding being weak; the European LD market has recovered, and the high - pressure price in Southeast Asia is relatively high. [18][25] - **Basis/Monthly Spread**: The basis has been significantly repaired, and the North China market has returned to a slight premium. However, after the futures price rebounded, the basis could not keep up, and the monthly spread weakened again at a low level. [8] - **Import Profit**: The import window is open, the non - standard import profit is at a neutral level year - on - year, and the LD import profit is at a relatively high level this year. Overseas markets are still expected to destock at the end of the year, and imports may remain at a certain scale. [32] - **Non - standard Spread**: The production of HD film is relatively low, the supply is tight, and the non - standard spread is high. In November, it attracted some petrochemical companies to switch production, and supply pressure may be realized in the middle and late months. LD has also started to weaken month - on - month recently. [35] - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil is oscillating at a low level, naphtha is moving sideways, ethylene has rebounded after a decline, and coal prices are relatively strong. [40] - **PE Production Profit**: Overall profits are compressed, and the valuation compression in the monomer segment is the most obvious. The profit margins of MTO and ethylene - purchasing processes have slightly declined. [46] 3.2 Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **New Production Capacity**: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, standard products were intensively put into production, with a nominal production capacity growth rate of 19.2% and an effective production capacity growth rate of 16.7%. Before the 2605 contract, there will be limited new capacity put into production. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of Huajin and Zhongsha Gulei refineries. [50] - **Existing Operating Rate**: From the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, the production capacity base increased, and the total supply increment was obvious. The operating rate is at a neutral level, and the maintenance volume is currently the same as last year. [51] - **Standard Product Supply**: The production capacity of LLD has been intensively put into operation, and the production ratio is at a neutral level. The maintenance in December is expected to be lower than that in November, and supply is expected to increase. [54] - **Maintenance Plan**: The scale of subsequent maintenance is expected to decline, and the monthly maintenance volume in Q4 is currently lower than the same period last year. [56] - **Imports and Exports**: Domestic production has increased significantly, and imports are at a low level year - on - year. In October, some shipments were delayed due to poor transportation turnover, and Iranian imports may increase in November. From December to January next year, overseas petrochemical maintenance will decrease, and supply will increase. The US inventory clearance pressure has been partially relieved, and imports will remain at a relatively high level. Standard product imports are at a low level, and LD imports are the same as last year. Imports from the US and Southeast Asia have decreased year - on - year. In October, imports from Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the Middle East increased slightly. [59][62][65] - **Inventory**: Supply is gradually increasing, upstream companies are actively destocking, and some downstream companies have placed orders at low prices. The inventory of standard and non - standard products at factories continues to decline, and upstream companies are actively selling at reduced prices. The middle and downstream are mainly digesting their previous inventories. [67][70] - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has maintained a high level but has weakened this week. The operating rate of the packaging industry is the same as last year, and the enthusiasm for raw material stocking is limited in the downward market. The industry profit is at a high level, but orders are slightly lower year - on - year. The demand for PE pipes has slightly improved in Q4, and the raw material inventory is slightly lower year - on - year. Overall, downstream demand shows signs of marginal decline. [72][79][86][89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is a rebound, but the upside space is narrowing. In the short term, due to factors such as Iranian plant maintenance and low port unloading leading to significant destocking, there was a concentrated exit of short - positions, driving a co - rising of futures and spot prices. In the medium term, the high domestic supply pressure of the 01 contract remains the main contradiction, and high daily production and high import volumes may limit the upside price space in December. In 2026, the overall fundamental situation of methanol may improve in the first quarter [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - **Base, Monthly Spread, and Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents historical data on the base of methanol on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE), 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 monthly spreads, and the number of warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [8][9][12]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: It shows the historical market low - end prices of methanol in Inner Mongolia, Henan, the southern region of Shandong, and the import market price in Taicang from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16][17]. - **International Spot Prices**: Historical data on the CFR prices of methanol in China and Southeast Asia, and the FOB price in Rotterdam from 2020 - 2025 are provided [18][19][20]. - **Port - Inland Price Spreads**: The price spreads between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, Henan, and the southern region of Shandong from 2020 - 2025 are presented [21][22][23][24]. 3.2 Supply - **New Capacity Summary**: From 2024 - 2025, China added significant methanol production capacity, with 400 million tons in 2024 and 830 million tons in 2025. Internationally, there was also capacity expansion, with 355 million tons in 2024 and 165 million tons in 2025 [26]. - **Maintenance Summary**: Multiple methanol enterprises had maintenance plans from 2025. The report details the annual production capacity, shutdown and startup dates, actual daily losses, and other information of each enterprise [29]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In the week of 20251121 - 1127, China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.09%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Next week, production is expected to be around 2.0728 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 91.27% [5]. - **Production by Process**: Historical production data of methanol produced by different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, and coal co - alcohol) in China from 2018 - 2025 are shown [32][33][34]. - **Capacity Utilization by Region**: The historical capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central China) from 2018 - 2025 are presented [36][37]. - **Import - Related**: It includes historical data on China's monthly methanol import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [40][41][42][43]. - **Cost and Profit**: Historical data on the production costs and profits of methanol produced by different processes (coal - based, coke oven gas - based, natural gas - based) in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are provided [45][46][47][50][51][52]. 3.3 Demand - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The historical capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE) from 2020 - 2025 are presented [55][56][57][58]. - **Downstream Profits**: The historical profit data of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, formaldehyde, MTBE, glacial acetic acid) in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are shown [62][63][66][67][68]. - **Purchasing Volume by Region**: It shows the historical purchasing volumes of methanol by methanol - to - olefins production enterprises and traditional downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [70][71][72][73][75][76][77][78]. - **Raw Material Inventory by Region**: The historical raw material inventory data of methanol downstream manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [80][81][82][83]. 3.4 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: Historical data on the weekly factory inventory of methanol in China, East China, and Northwest China from 2018 - 2025 are provided [85][86][87]. - **Port Inventory**: Historical data on the weekly port inventory of methanol in China, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong from 2018 - 2025 are presented [91][92][93].

Group 1: Market Overview - The price of scrap aluminum has shown a steady increase this week, with fluctuations ranging from 0 to 100 yuan/ton, while alloy white materials and spray coatings performed slightly better than primary aluminum and aluminum scrap [1] - The domestic recycled aluminum alloy market has seen the A00 aluminum ingot price drop to an average of 21,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton compared to November 20 [2] - The market for casting aluminum alloy futures initially declined but later rebounded, with prices returning above 20,500 yuan/ton [4] Group 2: Raw Material and Pricing Analysis - The scrap aluminum market has experienced a slowdown in price fluctuations, with prices for bright aluminum wire remaining stable between 18,500 and 19,000 yuan/ton [5] - The price of easy-open cans has remained stable, ranging from 15,700 to 16,300 yuan/ton, with a preference for these resources among aluminum enterprises due to low silicon prices [7] - The price of primary aluminum has remained relatively stable, with fluctuations between 16,300 and 17,000 yuan/ton, influenced by varying purchasing attitudes among aluminum enterprises [9] Group 3: Cost and Profit Analysis - The cost of ADC12 has seen a slight increase in the proportion of scrap aluminum usage, rising to 92.1% [11] - The production cost of ADC12 in East China is reported at 20,397.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan/ton, while South China remains stable at 21,043.8 yuan/ton [13] - The profit for domestic casting aluminum alloy ingots has decreased to -22.7 yuan/ton, a drop of 63.6 yuan/ton compared to November 20 [15] Group 4: Market Outlook - The aluminum alloy market is expected to continue its narrow range fluctuations, with limited price movements anticipated due to macroeconomic controls and weak demand [17] - The overall market sentiment has slightly improved, with expectations of a stable aluminum price range due to normal supply and moderate demand [19] - The forecast for next week suggests that the casting aluminum alloy prices may remain stable within a narrow range, with futures prices expected to fluctuate between 20,500 and 20,900 yuan/ton [19]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Anticipating Cost Support, Wait and See - Guoxin Futures Ferroalloy Weekly Report" [2] - Report date: November 30, 2025 [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Report Core View - For manganese - silicon, the futures fluctuated last week, the spot price declined slightly, and the basis dropped slightly but remained at a relatively high level. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, but the absolute price is low with strong cost support. Due to poor profits of alloy plants, production has been falling. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. - For silicon - iron, the futures were weak last week, the spot price declined slightly, and the basis rebounded slightly. The spot price of thermal coal has weakened, but the year - end electricity price reduction space is limited, providing cost support. Due to poor production profits, silicon - iron production has started to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate upward, depending on energy price changes [46]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Important news**: On November 28, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting; on November 24, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on cost determination for disorderly price competition; from January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and the steel industry turned from loss to profit; this week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.5571 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons (0.7%); the total inventory was 14.0081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 322,900 tons (2.25%); the weekly consumption was 8.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%, with building material consumption down 0.3% and plate consumption up 2.3% week - on - week [5]. - **Manganese - silicon futures and price changes**: The basis of manganese - silicon in different regions showed different year - on - year, monthly, and weekly changes. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the basis was 238, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.54%, a 30 - day decrease of 3.17%, and a one - week decrease of 0.36%. The spot price of Australian 44Mn increased by 0.76% week - on - week, while the South African semi - carbonate decreased by 0.58% week - on - week [9]. - **Silicon - iron futures and basis**: The basis situation of silicon - iron was presented, and the electricity price changes in major production areas were also shown [12][15][17]. 2. Manganese - silicon Industry Chain Overview - **Manganese ore**: Information on manganese ore price, import volume, inventory was presented, but specific numerical summaries were not given in the text [20][24][26]. - **Manganese - silicon profit, production, and demand**: The profit estimation of manganese - silicon was shown. The开工率 (capacity utilization rate) of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises nationwide was 38.09%, a decrease of 1.04% from last week, and the daily average output was 27,825 tons, a decrease of 305 tons. The demand side was related to steel production [27][46]. 3. Silicon - iron Industry Chain Overview - **Silicon - iron profit and production**: The profit estimation of silicon - iron was presented. The开工率 (capacity utilization rate) of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises nationwide was 33.41%, a decrease of 0.40% from last week, and the daily average output was 15,320 tons, a decrease of 150 tons (0.97% week - on - week). The demand was related to steel production [37][46]. 4. Summary and Future Outlook - **Manganese - silicon**: Wait and see due to weak supply - demand but strong cost support and falling production [46]. - **Silicon - iron**: Considered to fluctuate upward, relying on energy price changes with cost support at the end of the year [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows limited marginal changes in the current situation, with a weak supply - demand pattern and non - prominent contradictions. The disk price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new energy varieties, mostly showing following or compensatory fluctuations [16]. - The polysilicon market has obvious contradictions between reality and expectations, as well as among industrial upstream and downstream. The supply - demand and inventory situation remains weak, and the price is affected by factors such as warehouse receipt cancellation and the expected landing of platform companies [18]. Summaries by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand**: The weekly output of polysilicon decreased to 2.73 tons, the DMC output increased to 4.99 tons, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy from January to October was 1576.00 tons, and the cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to October was 59.80 tons [14]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 48.14 tons, with a decrease of 17.87 tons compared to the previous period, mainly due to the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts [14]. - **Price**: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon was 9350 yuan/ton, and the 421 was 9800 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 9130 yuan/ton [15]. - **Cost**: The average cost in Xinjiang was 8504.17 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9766.67 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9720 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 9000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 8.90 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons compared to the previous period [15]. 02. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged at 9350 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 421 was 9800 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2601) closed at 9130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [23]. - **Polysilicon**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical polysilicon N - type re -投料 was 52.3 yuan/kg, and the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, both remaining unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (PS2601) closed at 56425 yuan/ton, up 3065 yuan/ton [26]. 03. Industrial Silicon - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 8.90 tons, a decrease of 0.02 tons compared to the previous period. In October 2025, the output was 40.48 tons, and the cumulative output from January to October decreased by 63.79 tons year - on - year [31]. - **Output in Main Producing Areas**: Not specifically summarized in text, but data is presented in relevant charts [33][35]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price and silicon coal price in the main producing areas remained stable week - on - week. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8504.17 yuan/ton, Yunnan was 9766.67 yuan/ton, Sichuan was 9720 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia was 9000 yuan/ton [44][47]. - **Visible Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 48.14 tons, a decrease of 17.87 tons compared to the previous period. Factory inventory increased by 0.02 tons, market inventory remained unchanged, and registered warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 17.89 tons [50]. 04. Polysilicon - **Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon was 2.73 tons, showing a continuous decline. The output in November was 11.46 tons, and the cumulative output from January to November was 118.97 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.07% [55]. - **Capacity Utilization and Scheduled Production**: The capacity utilization rate in October was 50.09%, up 0.66 percentage points month - on - month. The expected output in December is 11.35 tons, showing a continuous decline [58]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 28.21 tons (Baichuan Yingfu口径), and the inventory was 28.1 tons (SMM口径) [61]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the production cost of polysilicon was 41640.63 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 8464.63 yuan/ton [64]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The weekly output was 12.02GW, showing a decline. The output in November was 54.37GW, and the cumulative output from January to November was 603.19GW, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35%. The inventory was 19.5GW, showing a slight increase, and the predicted output in December is 45.7GW, showing a significant decline [67][70]. - **Battery Cell**: The output in October was 59.27GW, a decrease of 1.7GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate in October was 57.79%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to October was 567.11GW, a year - on - year increase of 3.73%. The inventory was 12.05GW, showing an increase, and the expected output in November is 58.68GW, showing a slight decrease [76][79]. - **Module**: The output in October was 48.1GW, a decrease of 1.8GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate in October was 46.85%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to October was 477.6GW, a year - on - year increase of 0.57%. The finished product inventory was 30.2GW, remaining stable, and the expected output in December is 39.99GW, showing a significant decline [84][87]. 05. Organic Silicon - **Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the DMC output was 4.99 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons compared to the previous period. The output in October was 20.09 tons, and the cumulative output from January to October was 206.27 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.39% [94]. - **Price and Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the average price of organic silicon was 13100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the DMC gross profit was 1128.13 yuan/ton [97]. - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the DMC inventory was 4.47 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons compared to the previous period [100]. 06. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of November 28, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21910 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton compared to the previous period, and the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21330 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The cumulative output from January to October was 1576.00 tons, a year - on - year increase of 254.20 tons or 19.23%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60.2%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.5% [105][108]. - **Exports**: The cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to October was 59.80 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.97 tons or 1.66% [111]