1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The main contracts of rebar and iron ore futures are in the sideways consolidation stage, and corresponding grid trading strategies are recommended [7][33] 3. Summary by Directory Rebar Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - According to the comprehensive analysis of the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent big - data quantitative strategy model, the main contract of rebar futures is in the sideways consolidation range. The weekly output of rebar is 2.13 million tons, the apparent consumption is 1.92 million tons, the inventory of major steel mills is 1.78 million tons, and the social inventory is 7.25 million tons. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the consolidation stage, with the antenna at 3330, the ground line at 2882, the grid spacing at 32, and the number of grids at 14 [7] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the main contract of rebar futures entered the shock consolidation range. This week, according to the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent big - data quantitative strategy model, it has entered the sideways consolidation range, and a large - grid trading strategy can be considered. Spot enterprises are advised to wait and see until the mid - term trend is clear [10][11][12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The data sources of this report are Wind, MySteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department. The variety diagnosis shows that the long - short flow is 44.2 (the main force is slightly bullish), the capital energy is 10.6 (the capital is basically stable), and the long - short divergence is 75.2 (there is a certain risk of market reversal) [26][16] Iron Ore Futures 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - According to the comprehensive analysis of the Great Wall Futures AI intelligent data model, the main contract of iron ore futures is in the sideways consolidation stage. In terms of supply, the global shipment volume of iron ore last week was 2.756 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major ports in China was 2.443 million tons, the inventory of steel enterprises was 8.995 million tons, and the inventory at major domestic ports was 13.842 million tons. A grid trading strategy can be considered during the consolidation stage [33] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week, the mid - term price of iron ore was in the shock consolidation stage. This week, the AI intelligent system suggests implementing a grid trading strategy during the consolidation stage, with the antenna at 872, the ground line at 732, the grid spacing at 10, and the number of grids at 14 [36][37] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - The data sources of this report are Wind, MySteel, and the Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [49]

2025.10.13-10.17 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于大区间震荡运行。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货价格维稳，截至10月10日新疆地区421#价格9100元/吨， 云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格10000元/吨。长城期货 AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在横盘阶段。资金方面， 主力多头阵营略占优势。 预计工业硅2511合约运行区间在7700—10000之中。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 为了控制国庆长假期间的不确定性风险，建议轻仓 或空仓过节。 本周策略建议 工业硅大区间运行，以逢低做多为主。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据 ...

此外，氧化铝期货的交易单位为20吨/手，报价单位为元（人民币）/吨，交易代码为AO，合约月份覆盖 全年1至12月，交易时间包括日盘和夜盘，充分满足了国内外投资者的参与需求。 氧化铝期货的最小变动价位是1元/吨。 这是上海期货交易所（SHFE）在其官方业务细则中明确规定的合约参数之一。这意味着在交易过程 中，氧化铝期货合约的价格每次最小波动单位为1元人民币，对应每手合约（20吨）盈亏变化为20元。 例如，当价格从3000元/吨上涨到3001元/吨时，持有一手多头合约的投资者将盈利20元。 这一最小变动价位的设定，兼顾了市场流动性与价格发现效率。较小的变动单位有助于提高市场参与者 的报价频率，增强市场活跃度，同时也使得价格更能灵敏地反映供需变化。对于产业客户而言，1元/吨 的变动单位也便于其进行精细化的套期保值操作，更准确地对冲现货市场的价格波动风险。 ...

Group 1: Palm Oil - Indonesia's Energy Minister announced a mandatory B50 biodiesel policy to be implemented by 2026, leading to expectations of reduced palm oil exports from Indonesia [1] - MPOA data indicates a 2.35% decrease in Malaysia's palm oil production for September 1-30, with market surveys suggesting a potential decline in palm oil inventory for the first time in seven months due to increased exports and decreased production [1] - Concerns exist regarding India's potential increase in vegetable oil import tariffs, and domestic demand is under pressure following the end of the dual festival stocking period [1] Group 2: Gold - Concerns about a potential U.S. federal government shutdown have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with the World Gold Council reporting a 12% year-on-year increase in global central bank gold purchases in Q3 [1] - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes indicated a consensus on the necessity of another interest rate cut this year, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - Factors to watch include changes in inflation statements, adjustments to the balance sheet plan, and developments in geopolitical conflicts [1] Group 3: Copper - Global copper supply is tightening, exacerbated by production cuts at Chile's Escondida copper mine, with LME copper inventory dropping below 150,000 tons, the lowest level since 2005 [1] - Traditional sectors are experiencing weak demand, which may suppress downstream replenishment intentions due to high copper prices [1] - Key events to monitor include labor negotiations at Chile's Antofagasta copper mine and the resumption progress at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine [1] Group 4: Live Pigs - The inventory of breeding sows remains high, leading to sufficient supply of market pigs, while post-festival demand recovery has not met expectations [1] - National breeding sow inventory is being gradually reduced, with plans to decrease by 1 million heads within six months [1] - Events to watch include policy intervention signals, slaughter rhythm and weight, and the impact of weather changes on transportation and consumption demand [1] Group 5: Shipping - A ceasefire agreement in Gaza has been confirmed, and global fleet capacity is expected to grow by 6.3% by 2025, creating significant pressure from new ship deliveries [1] - The period from late Q3 to early Q4 is traditionally a low season, with spot rates continuing to decline [1] - Risks include potential seasonal demand for Christmas stocking, which may lead to a temporary increase in cargo volume, and ongoing threats from Houthi forces in Yemen [1] Group 6: Coking Coal - Weekly inventory of coking coal has decreased by 132, reaching 36.324 million tons, with recent mining accidents raising concerns about production capacity [2] - The long-term contract price for Mongolian coal has increased by $3.8 per ton in Q4, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards traditional peak season demand [2] - Key events to monitor include the maintenance of high iron water production capacity and the fulfillment of steel demand [2] Group 7: Industrial Silicon - The southwestern region is approaching a dry season, with expectations of rising electricity prices pushing production costs higher [2] - Institutions forecast a 5.95% month-on-month increase in October's polysilicon output to 142,500 tons, with a 3.7% increase in operating rates to 50.05% [2] - Events to watch include the progress of polysilicon storage plans and discussions on revising energy consumption standards for industrial silicon [2]

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 20 加 | 【行情复盘】 昨日尿素主力合约 2601 价格下跌 57 元至 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish/bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term bullish/bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the trading floor, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Logs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - Cotton & Cotton Yarn: Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. Xinjiang cotton purchase price fluctuated during the National Day. Pure cotton yarn prices were stable but weak. The new year has a strong production increase expectation, supply may increase significantly, and demand remains weak. It's advisable to wait and see [2] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production data is bearish, and domestic sugar is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The market focus is on the next season's production estimate, and the production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3] - Apple: The futures price rose and then fell. The listing and sales of new - season Red Fuji were affected by rain. The supply lacks bullish drivers, and the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, so a bearish strategy is maintained [4] - 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber: During the National Day, international rubber futures prices fluctuated, and today's prices rose. Supply pressure is high, demand declined during the holiday, inventory reduction is difficult, and the strategy is to rebound due to the end of risk - aversion sentiment [6] - Pulp: The pulp futures price continued to fall to a new low. The inventory decreased slightly, but the supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. It's advisable to wait and see [7] - Logs: The futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to remain low, demand in the peak season is emerging, inventory pressure is small, and a bullish strategy is maintained [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded, and new cotton's fixed - price quotes decreased compared to before the holiday [2] - Xinjiang cotton purchase price first fell and then rose during the National Day, with normal - moisture purchase prices mostly in the 6 - 6.2 yuan/kg range [2] - Pure cotton yarn prices were stable but weak, and the peak - season performance was not strong [2] - Since mid - September, the continuous decline of Zhengzhou cotton has had a negative impact on cotton purchase prices, and ginners are cautious in purchasing [2] - The new year has a strong production increase expectation, supply may increase significantly, and demand remains weak [2] - Macroscopically, pay attention to the China - US negotiation at the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October [2] - It's advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - During the holiday, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian sugar production data in the first half of September was bearish, with increased cane crushing and sugar production [3] - Although this year's cane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increased sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss in sugar production, and Brazil's sugar production will remain high [3] - Domestic Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile. The sales rhythm this year was fast, and the spot pressure was relatively light [3] - The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate [3] - After July, rainfall in Guangxi was good, and the sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3] - Sugar prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [3] Apple - The futures price rose and then fell [4] - The new - season Red Fuji's listing was delayed due to rain in the production area, and the sales speed slowed down [4] - The spot market had high expectations for the opening price of early - maturing apples [4] - The apple production in the 25/26 season is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply lacks bullish drivers [4] - In Shaanxi, farmers are bullish, and the reserved fruit volume increased. The cold - storage inventory of new - season Red Fuji may be higher than expected [4] - A bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - During the National Day, Singapore and Japanese rubber futures prices fluctuated sharply, and international crude oil futures prices first fell and then rose [6] - Today, RU&NR&BR prices rose, and market sentiment improved [6] - Domestic natural and synthetic rubber prices generally rose, and the port price of butadiene overseas was stable [6] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period [6] - Before the holiday, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline significantly, with some plants shutting down for maintenance and some restarting [6] - The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased [6] - During the National Day, tire enterprises had holidays, and the domestic tire operating rate decreased [6] - Before the holiday, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 45.65 tons, with a slight decrease in bonded - area inventory and a large decrease in general - trade inventory [6] - The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber continued to fall to 1.22 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory in China rose to 2.78 tons [6] - During the National Day, demand decreased, supply pressure was high, inventory reduction was difficult, and geopolitical risks decreased. The strategy is to rebound due to the end of risk - aversion sentiment [6] Pulp - The pulp futures price continued to fall to a new low [7] - As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports decreased by 7.9 tons to 203.3 tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease [7] - The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian needles still suppress the near - term contracts [7] - The current import inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, and the pulp supply is relatively loose [7] - Pulp demand is still average, and downstream paper mills continue to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies [7] - It's advisable to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated, and the spot price was stable [8] - The arrival volume before the holiday increased, and the price of New Zealand radiata pine in October was raised [8] - The domestic spot price was weak, and traders' import willingness decreased [8] - The overseas price was still high, and the domestic spot price was difficult to improve, increasing traders' pressure [8] - The domestic supply is expected to remain low in the short term [8] - The port inventory reduction before the holiday was significant, and the peak - season demand emerged, with smooth inventory reduction [8] - The original inventory was low, and inventory pressure was relatively small [8] - A bullish strategy is maintained [8]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 9 日星期四 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 节前焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1126.0；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收于 1623.0。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、本周，五大品种钢材总库存量 1600.72 万吨，环比增 127.86 万吨。其中，钢厂库存 | | | | 量 | 472.56 万吨，环比增 58.63 万吨；社会库存量 1128.16 万吨，环比增 69.23 万吨。 | | | | | 2、国庆长假期间，钢厂主要以消耗原有库存为主，节后为了维持连续性生产，存在阶 | | | | | 段性的补库需求。但是考虑到目前钢厂普遍面临利润空间有 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating weakly" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic urea start - up has rebounded this week. Agriculture is still in the off - season, and industrial demand is rising slowly. Upstream factories continue to accumulate inventory, and there is still pressure on upstream orders before the holiday. The short - term urea price will oscillate at a low level, with a reference range of 1620 - 1720 yuan/ton. Traders should hold a light position or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2601 dropped by 9 yuan to 1664 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area remained stable at 1610 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 8102 lots to 191,900 lots, and short positions decreased by 7699 lots to 234,900 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 199,400 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous working day. The current operating rate is 85.2%, an increase of 0.08% compared to 85.13% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2182 million tons, an increase of 52,900 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.54%. The inventory of the urea port sample is 496,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 35.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%, and the operating rate of melamine is 56.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% [1] - Policy: The fourth batch of quotas in China is expected to be mainly distributed to production enterprises, especially those using natural gas as raw materials, similar to the second - batch quota recipients. The total quantity is estimated to be 500,000 - 600,000 tons, with a low proportion for trading enterprises. The specific distribution time is expected to be around the National Day [1] - Economy: The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an upward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate in 2026 will slow down to 2.9%, the same as the June forecast [1] Market Logic - The short - term urea price will oscillate at a low level due to the increase in domestic urea start - up, off - season agriculture, slow - rising industrial demand, and inventory accumulation in upstream factories [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should hold a light position or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market has entered a short - term slight oscillation phase. The international soybean market supply remains loose with significant overall pressure, and the upward space for US and Brazilian soybeans is limited. The domestic soybean meal supply - demand is relatively loose with inventory pressure. The rapeseed meal inventory is at a relatively low level, but the demand is also average, and the price lacks obvious fluctuations. The rebound space of the soybean meal inter - monthly spread may be limited, and the rapeseed meal inter - monthly spread may continue to show some downward pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Today, the US soybean market oscillated. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal also oscillated slightly. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal changed little. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined slightly [4]. - For futures prices, soybean meal contract 01 closed at 2933, down 4; contract 05 at 2743, down 8; contract 09 at 2852, down 6. Rapeseed meal contract 01 closed at 2416, up 11; contract 05 at 2323, down 4; contract 09 at 2407, unchanged [4]. - For spot basis, the basis of soybean meal in Tianjin remained at 40, in Dongguan increased from - 50 to - 40, and in Zhangjiagang remained at - 60. The basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased from 65 to 44, in Guangdong decreased from 95 to 84, and in Guangxi decreased from 85 to 74 [4]. - For inter - monthly spreads, the 15 - spread of soybean meal increased from 186 to 190, the 59 - spread decreased from - 107 to - 109, and the 91 - spread decreased from - 79 to - 81. The 15 - spread of rapeseed meal increased from 78 to 93, the 59 - spread decreased from - 80 to - 84, and the 91 - spread decreased from 2 to - 9 [4]. - For cross - variety spreads, the 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 532 to 517, the 09 spread decreased from 451 to 445, and the 01 oil - meal ratio remained at 2.779 [4]. - For spot spreads, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased from 328 to 332, the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal increased from 538 to 542, and the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal remained at 230 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the US, the ending stocks of the old - crop soybean balance sheet were slightly increased. The new - crop production slightly decreased in yield but increased in planted area, with overall supply slightly increasing. The price decline space is limited, and the market is mainly affected by exports [5]. - In South America, the old - crop soybean supply - demand is loose. The production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crushing volume by 8.21 million tons. The Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, and the price pressure exists, but the high price is due to optimistic export expectations [5]. - Internationally, the supply pressure of soybean meal is obvious. The annual crushing volume of major producing areas is expected to increase by 21.536 million tons, while the import volume of major importing countries only slightly increases [5]. - Domestically, the spot market of soybean meal is loose. As of September 26, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2672 million tons, the operating rate was 63.28%, the soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, up 3.63% from last week and 14.38% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, down 4.86% from last week and 3.04% year - on - year [7]. - The demand for domestic rapeseed meal is gradually weakening. As of September 26, the crushing volume of rapeseed in coastal oil mills was 20,000 tons, the operating rate was 5.33%, the rapeseed inventory was 26,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons, down 2,500 tons [7]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The Sino - US Madrid negotiation was completed. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is worried about the uncertainty of subsequent supply. However, China's long - term demand for US soybeans exists, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [8]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short a small amount of soybean meal [9]. - For arbitrage, a long spread between M11 and M1 is recommended [9]. - For options, a short strangle strategy is suggested [9]. 3.5 Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit varies by origin and shipping date. For example, for Argentine soybeans with an 11 - month shipping date, the crushing profit was - 31.91, down from 0. For Brazilian soybeans, the crushing profit also changed with different shipping dates [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase beyond expectations this year, while ginneries have average enthusiasm for purchasing, and large - scale rush purchases are not expected. Some market expectations put the purchase price around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As new cotton is listed in large quantities, there will be certain selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the improvement is limited, so the peak season this year is expected to be mediocre, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [8]. - It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend. It is recommended to trade opportunistically. For arbitrage and options, it is advised to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), prices decreased, with CF01 closing at 13350, down 55; for棉纱 futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), CY01 closed at 19485, down 65. Trading volumes and open interest also changed. For example, the trading volume of CF01 was 245,440, an increase of 49234, and the open interest was 530,559, a decrease of 4260 [3]. - Spot: The CCIndex3128B price was 14953 yuan/ton, down 90; the Cot A price was 0.00 cents/pound, down 77.70. The prices of other spot products such as polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber also had corresponding changes [3]. 3.1.2 Spreads - Cotton inter - delivery spreads: The spread between January and May was - 10, down 10; the spread between May and September was - 170, up 10. - Cotton - yarn inter - delivery spreads: The spread between January and May was - 90, down 19640. - Cross - variety spreads: The spread between CY01 and CF01 was 6135, down 10. - Domestic - foreign spreads: The domestic - foreign cotton spread (1% tariff) was 1092, down 48 [3]. 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of September 15, 2025, the cumulative new cotton listing volume in Pakistan in the 2025/26 season reached 311,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. However, due to the early harvest of dry - land cotton and concentrated precipitation in July and August, the quantity and quality of later - listed cotton may be affected [6]. - As of September 27, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.999 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%. The planting areas in major producing areas such as Maharashtra and Gujarat decreased, while that in Telangana increased [7]. - The pre - sale quotes of new cotton in the 2025/26 season continued to increase. The mainstream sales basis of 41 - grade non - lightly spotted polluted double - 29 machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang with impurities within 3.5 was around CF01 + 1100, with higher quotes ranging from 1200 to 1300, for delivery before mid - October [7]. 3.2.2 Cotton Trading Logic - With new cotton gradually entering the acquisition stage, the market focus is shifting to the opening price of new cotton. The expected increase in Xinjiang cotton output and the average enthusiasm of ginneries for purchasing lead to the expectation of no large - scale rush purchases. The expected purchase price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As new cotton is listed in large quantities, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the peak season is expected to be mediocre [8]. 3.2.3 Cotton Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend. It is recommended to trade opportunistically. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [9]. 3.2.4 Cotton - yarn Industry News - Over the weekend, the trading atmosphere in the pure cotton - yarn market was average, with few new orders for enterprises, and downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand. Cotton - yarn prices remained stable. As the decline in cotton prices was greater than that in yarn prices, the cash flow of enterprises improved. The peak season in September was mediocre, weaker than the same period in previous years, and market confidence was insufficient. - In the all - cotton grey fabric market in September, both volume and price lacked peak - season characteristics. Orders for grey fabric factories were average, with thick - type fabrics being the main products in production. Conventional and high - count orders were few. Export orders were average, with intense competition and extremely low profit margins [11]. 3.3 Options - The implied volatility of CF601C14000.CZC was 13.1%, and its price decreased by 33.6%. The implied volatility of CF601P13600.CZC was 12%, and its price increased by 5.7%. The implied volatility of CF601P13400.CZC was 12.3%, and its price increased by 5.1%. The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day [13]. - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7310, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.7294. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to wait and see for options [14][15]. 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the domestic - foreign cotton spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 and CF05, the spread between CY01 and CF01, and the spreads between different delivery months of cotton futures [18][25][26].