Report Overview - Report Name: PTA&MEG Morning Report - July 11, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0015557 - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - PTA: The short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. The supply is expected to increase in July, while the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the polyester factories have inventory pressure, which is negative for the PTA spot market [5]. - MEG: The supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The price will be mainly sorted in the low - range, and attention should be paid to the return efficiency of the supply side and cost changes [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **PTA Daily View** - Fundamental: The PTA futures followed the cost side to fluctuate and close higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened. The 7 - month cargo was traded at 09 + 0~20, and the price negotiation range was around 4720 - 4750. The current mainstream spot basis is 09 + 7 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4735, and the 09 - contract basis is - 7, with the futures price at a premium [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing [5]. - Expectation: In July, there are few maintenance plans, and the Sanfangxiang PTA device is expected to be put into production. The supply increases year - on - year, while the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the polyester factories have inventory pressure. The PTA spot market is bearish, and the price follows the cost [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - Fundamental: On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated upward, and the market trading was acceptable. The intraday disk fluctuated upward, and the near - term cargo negotiation was around a premium of 68 - 71 yuan/ton over the 09 - contract. The afternoon spot was traded at a high of 4400 yuan/ton [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4386, and the 09 - contract basis is 61, with the futures price at a discount [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 53.20 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared to the previous period [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - Main Position: The net short position is decreasing [6]. - Expectation: The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The price will be mainly sorted in the low - range, and attention should be paid to the return efficiency of the supply side and cost changes [6]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol total production, supply, polyester consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - **Price and Basis Data**: It includes the price changes of spot and futures of PTA, MEG, and related products on July 10 and July 9, 2025, as well as the basis and profit data [14]. 5. Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Iran confirmed a cease - fire, and the terminal demand is in a downward trend due to the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand [10]. 6. Current Main Logic and Risk Points The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an inventory accumulation expectation at the raw material end. Attention should be paid to the upper resistance level after the disk rebounds [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals remain in a tight - balance. Crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - Methanol is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. With the improvement of domestic commodity sentiment, the upward and downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] - The supply and demand of domestic urea are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [5] - For rubber, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy [8][12] - PVC is expected to have strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. It will be under pressure in the future [14] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17] - The price of polyethylene is expected to remain volatile [19] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July [20] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23] - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the demand side is slightly under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24] - For ethylene glycol, the fundamentals are weak, and pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.42, or 2.08%, to $66.87; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.30, or 1.85%, to $68.88; INE main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan, or 0.54%, to 522.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.37 million barrels to 12.00 million barrels, a 2.97% decrease; diesel inventory decreased by 0.15 million barrels to 9.74 million barrels, a 1.51% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.33 million barrels to 24.71 million barrels, a 5.68% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 46.46 million barrels, a 1.78% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 26 yuan/ton to 2398 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 8 [3] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate continued to decline by 3.89%, coal - to - methanol profit increased slightly, and overseas plant operating rate returned to medium - high levels [3] - **Demand**: Port MTO load decreased slightly, traditional demand operating rates varied, and it is currently the off - season. Downstream profit levels are generally low, and methanol valuation is still high [3] - **Inventory**: Both port and enterprise inventories increased during the off - season [3] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 10, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1777 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 53 [5] - **Supply**: Domestic operating rate increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.6 tons, and the overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level [5] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers has bottomed out and rebounded, and exports are still ongoing. Future demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Due to the bullish expectations in the real estate market, most industrial products rose, and NR and RU rose significantly [8] - **Long - Short Views**: Bulls believe that factors in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Industry Situation**: As of July 10, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.54%, up 0.81 percentage points from last week and 5.59 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, up 2.51 percentage points from last week and down 6.36 percentage points from the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipment rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure [9] - **Inventory**: As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 tons, a 0.3% decrease. As of July 7, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.52 (- 0.14) tons [10] - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14150 (+ 300) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1735 (+ 30) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1740 (+ 30) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9100 (+ 50) yuan, and North China butadiene was 11200 (0) yuan [11] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 77 yuan to 5040 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4860 (+ 70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 180 (- 7) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 103 (- 8) yuan/ton [14] - **Cost**: The price of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 620 (- 10) yuan/ton, ethylene was 820 (0) dollars/ton, and the cost remained flat. The spot price of caustic soda was 820 (+ 10) yuan/ton [14] - **Supply**: The overall PVC operating rate was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.8%, a 0.2% decrease; the ethylene method was 68.5%, a 1.9% decrease [14] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase [14] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 38.6 tons (- 0.9), and social inventory was 59.2 tons (+ 1.7) [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices remained unchanged, while futures prices rose, and the basis weakened [17] - **Cost**: The operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was relatively abundant [17] - **Supply**: The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation increased, and the operating rate of styrene continued to rise. Port inventory increased [17] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products decreased [17] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space [19] - **Supply**: The upstream operating rate was 77.82%, a 0.34% increase. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 tons to 49.31 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.09 tons to 6.05 tons [19] - **Demand**: In the off - season, the demand for agricultural films was weak, and the overall operating rate fluctuated downward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose [20] - **Supply**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover, increasing the supply of propylene [20] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the off - season, both supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 58 yuan to 6782 yuan, and PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 852 dollars. The basis was 240 yuan (- 45), and the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan (- 10) [22] - **Supply**: The operating rate in China was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants reduced production, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads [22] - **Demand**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase [22] - **Inventory**: In late May, the inventory was 434.6 tons, a 16.5 - ton decrease from the previous month [23] - **Valuation**: PXN was 261 dollars (+ 9), and the naphtha crack spread was 84 dollars (+ 11) [23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 24 yuan to 4742 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4735 yuan. The basis was 7 yuan (- 29), and the 9 - 1 spread was 12 yuan (- 16) [24] - **Supply**: The PTA operating rate was 79.7%, a 1.5% increase. Some plants increased production, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted [24] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [24] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 213.5 tons, a 1.9 - ton increase [24] - **Valuation**: The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan to 128 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 14 yuan to 293 yuan [24] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4325 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 27 yuan to 4374 yuan. The basis was 70 (- 1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 33 yuan (- 4) [25] - **Supply**: The EG operating rate was 68.1%, a 1.5% increase; among them, the syngas - based method was 73.1%, a 3.8% increase; the ethylene - based method was 64.2%, a 0.6% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted [25] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate was 88.9%, a 1.3% decrease. Some plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25] - **Inventory**: The import forecast was 9.6 tons, and the East China port outbound volume on July 9 was 1.24 tons. Port inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 58 tons [25] - **Valuation**: The profit of naphtha - based production was - 644 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 704 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 951 yuan [25]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June increased by 0.1% year-on-year, ending a four-month decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a mixed price trend in the economy [3][4][16] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month and reaching a 14-month high, reflecting improvements in supply-demand structures in certain industries [3][17] - The persistent low prices in the market are attributed to an oversupply situation, which could lead to a negative cycle affecting corporate expectations and investment, potentially dragging the economy into a "low inflation trap" [5][18] Group 2 - The decline in PPI is primarily driven by seasonal factors and the construction progress of infrastructure projects, along with an oversupply of raw materials like steel and cement, which has negatively impacted production material prices [4][17] - Key factors contributing to the current supply-demand imbalance include a decline in real estate investment, high tariff barriers affecting exports, and weak consumer income expectations leading to insufficient consumption willingness [4][18] - The overall economic recovery is influenced by a combination of supportive incremental policies and complex external environments, with expectations for CPI to show a trend of low-to-high throughout the year [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The decision by President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper is shocking in both timing and scale, significantly impacting the copper market and global supply chain [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the tariff, COMEX copper prices surged by 17%, reaching historic highs, while LME copper prices experienced volatility, with a price range between $9,769.50 and $9,553.00 per ton [1][4]. - Analysts predict that the price differential between New York and London copper will continue to widen, potentially reaching 50% as U.S. importers rush to purchase copper ahead of the tariff implementation [5][6]. Group 2: Supply Chain Implications - The U.S. is heavily reliant on copper imports, with the U.S. Geological Survey estimating a consumption of 3.4 million tons in 2024, nearly half of which will be imported [1][2]. - The U.S. domestic copper production is only 1.1 million tons, a 3% decline year-on-year, which is minimal compared to the global production of 23 million tons [1][2]. Group 3: Long-term Industry Outlook - Analysts express concerns that the U.S. has underinvested in copper mining and refining for decades, making self-sufficiency nearly impossible in the short term [2]. - The International Energy Agency forecasts global copper demand to reach 26.7 million tons in 2024, with a 7% increase over the past three years and a projected 17% growth by 2030 [4]. Group 4: Economic Impact on U.S. Companies - U.S. companies are expected to bear the brunt of the tariff, leading to increased costs for copper, especially as the dollar has depreciated by approximately 15% this year [6][7]. - The uncertainty created by the tariff announcement has left many in the copper trading and production sectors confused, with potential negative implications for all domestic copper consumers [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend. PP's maintenance losses continue to increase, PE's domestic maintenance has peaked, and PE's import is expected to be low. The weighted valuation has recovered significantly, and the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, but there is still overall pressure. Short - term attention can be paid to the support brought by de - stocking. For PP, it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [1]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices are oscillating strongly, mainly due to a large increase in US crude oil inventories and new sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Although the increase in US EIA inventory data is bearish, it is temporarily overshadowed by geopolitical risks and peak - season demand. Geopolitical risks have limited continuity in disturbing the market, and oil prices are likely to enter a wide - range oscillation after rising. It is recommended to adopt a short - term trading strategy [6]. Methanol Industry - The inland methanol market is supported by centralized maintenance in July, with limited short - term downside. The port market faces dual pressures: the resumption of Iranian plants and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which is expected to lead to a slight inventory build - up in July and stronger price suppression [31]. Urea Industry - The core drivers of the fundamentals and macro - news are the market confidence boost from the Indian tender price. Although there is no follow - up substantial news on exports, the market has short - term expectations of export benefits. The short - term market shows an oscillating upward trend, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed, and long positions should not be overly chased [36]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Under the influence of PXN repair, domestic plant maintenance delays, and overseas supply recovery, PX is under pressure, but considering new PTA plant commissioning and other factors, the supply - demand is still expected to be tight. Short - term long positions can be considered around 6600 for PX09. - **PTA**: The supply - demand is expected to weaken, but cost support is strong. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - term long positions can be considered below 4700. - **MEG**: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is expected to be in balance in July and build up inventory from August to September. Short - term attention should be paid to the 4400 resistance level for EG09. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. It is recommended to expand the processing margin when it is low. - **Bottle - chip**: There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement, and the processing margin is gradually recovering. The absolute price follows the cost. [41] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: It has rebounded recently, supported by crude oil and styrene prices. However, due to high import expectations and high port inventories, its upward potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread. - **Styrene**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken, with increasing port inventories. Although the absolute price is supported by strong oil prices and a favorable commodity atmosphere, the increase is limited. Short positions can be considered around 7500 for EB08 [45]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices - L2601 closed at 7254, up 29 (0.40%); L2509 at 7278, up 33 (0.46%); PP2601 at 7034, up 28 (0.40%); PP2509 at 7078, up 33 (0.47%) [1]. Spreads - L2509 - 2601 spread increased by 4 (20.00%); PP2509 - 2601 spread increased by 5 (12.82%) [1]. Spot Prices - East China PP wire drawing spot was 7100, up 10 (0.14%); North China LDPE film material spot was 7170, unchanged [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 million tons (12.48%); PE social inventory increased by 1.04 million tons (2.05%). PP enterprise inventory increased by 1.11 million tons (1.95%); PP trader inventory increased by 0.48 million tons (3.21%) [1]. Crude Oil Industry Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude was at $70.19, up $0.04 (0.06%); WTI was at $68.15, down $0.23 (- 0.34%). Brent - WTI spread increased by $0.23 (12.71%) [6]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB was at 219.05 cents/gallon, up 0.26 cents (0.12%); NYM ULSD was at 241.14 cents/gallon, up 0.22 cents (0.09%) [6]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - US gasoline crack spread was at $23.85, up $0.34 (1.44%); European gasoline crack spread was unchanged at $14.13 [6]. Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2434, up 14 (0.58%); MA2509 at 2372, down 1 (- 0.04%). MA91 spread decreased by 15 (31.91%) [31]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.5% (1.31%); methanol port inventory increased by 4.5 million tons (6.72%); methanol social inventory increased by 5.0% (4.86%) [31]. Operating Rates - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 2.5% (- 3.19%); overseas upstream enterprise operating rate increased by 10.7% (20.19%) [31]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - 01 contract closed at 1736, up 13 (0.75%); 05 contract at 1736, up 9 (0.52%); 09 contract at 1770, up 7 (0.40%) [33]. Spot Prices - Shandong (small - grain) urea was at 1840 yuan/ton, up 20 (1.10%); Henan (small - grain) was at 1840 yuan/ton, up 30 (1.66%) [37]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.20 million tons (1.03%); urea production plant operating rate increased by 0.86% (1.03%) [37]. Polyester Industry Chain Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 6700 yuan/ton, down 60 (- 0.9%); FDY150/96 price was 6975 yuan/ton, unchanged [41]. PX - related - CFR China PX was at $10610/ton, unchanged; PX spot price (in RMB) decreased by 0.8% [41]. PTA - related - PTA East China spot price was 4750 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 1.0%); TA2509 closed at 4718 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [41]. MEG - related - MEG port inventory was 58.0 million tons, down 3.5 million tons (6.4%); MEG to - arrive expectation was 9.6 million tons, up 8 [41]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.1% (1.5%); China PX operating rate increased by 3.3% [41]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude (September) was at $70.19, up $0.04 (0.1%); CFR Japan naphtha was at $598/ton, up 11 (1.9%) [45]. Styrene - related - Styrene East China spot was 7640 yuan/ton, up 60 (0.8%); EB2508 closed at 7350 yuan/ton, up 74 (1.0%) [45]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene East China port inventory was 17.50 million tons, up 1.10 (6.7%); styrene East China port inventory was 13.30 million tons, up 3.67 (38.1%) [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance state. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. - The methanol market is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is difficult for the price to have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The domestic urea supply and demand situation is acceptable, with support at the bottom but limited upside due to high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [7]. - The natural rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. The market is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish mindset is recommended for the medium - term, and a neutral mindset for short - term operations [9][11]. - The PVC market is expected to face strong supply and weak demand. The main logic of the market is inventory reduction and weakening. The price will still face pressure in the future [13]. - The styrene price is expected to fluctuate downward. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN may recover [16]. - The polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction [19]. - The polypropylene price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season [20]. - The PX market is expected to continue inventory reduction in the third quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [23]. - The PTA market will see a slight inventory reduction in July, and the processing fee has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [24]. - The ethylene glycol market has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $0.11, or 0.16%, to $68.29; Brent main crude oil futures rose $0.15, or 0.21%, to $70.18; INE main crude oil futures rose 9.00 yuan, or 1.76%, to 519.7 yuan [2]. - **Data**: US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 7.07 million barrels to 426.02 million barrels, a 1.69% increase; SPR replenished 0.24 million barrels to 403.00 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.66 million barrels to 229.47 million barrels, a 1.15% decrease; diesel inventories decreased by 0.83 million barrels to 102.80 million barrels, a 0.80% decrease; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.45 million barrels to 21.83 million barrels, a 2.03% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.91 million barrels to 44.24 million barrels, a 2.01% decrease [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 9, the 09 contract fell 1 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 17 yuan/ton, with a basis of +13 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Upstream maintenance increased, and the operating rate declined from a high level. Iranian plants restarted, and the overseas operating rate returned to a medium - high level. The demand side saw a decline in port olefin load, and the traditional demand off - season led to a decline in operating rate. The methanol spot valuation is still high, and the upside space is limited in the off - season [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 9, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 1770 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of +50 [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term domestic operating rate declined, and the supply pressure eased. The demand for compound fertilizers continued to decline, but is expected to pick up with the pre - sale of autumn fertilizers. Exports are still ongoing, and port inventories have increased significantly [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest situation, and policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and the price usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has worsened, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may be less than expected. Tire operating rates are at a neutral level, and inventory pressure exists [9][10]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 69 yuan to 4863 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4790 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 173 (- 49) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 95 (+12) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Recently, maintenance increased, but production remained at a high level, and there are expectations of multiple plant startups in the short term. Downstream demand is weak compared to previous years and is entering the off - season. Exports are expected to weaken in July due to potential anti - dumping measures from India. The cost - side support is expected to weaken [13]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The cost - side pure benzene operating rate increased, and supply was abundant. The styrene operating rate continued to rise, and port inventories increased. In the off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products declined [16]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: After the OPEC+ meeting, crude oil oscillated downward. The spot price remained unchanged, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Traders' inventories continued to increase at a high level, and demand from the agricultural film sector was weak [19]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the propylene supply is expected to increase. Downstream operating rates declined seasonally. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to be bearish in July [20]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 28 yuan to 6724 yuan, PX CFR rose 3 dollars to 850 dollars, the basis was 285 yuan (- 3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 74 yuan (- 20) [22]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Chinese PX operating rate decreased by 2.8% to 81%, and the Asian operating rate increased by 1.1% to 74.1%. Some domestic plants reduced production or were under maintenance, while some overseas plants restarted or increased loads. PTA operating rate increased by 0.5% to 78.2%. In the third quarter, due to the startup of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction [22][23]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 8 yuan to 4718 yuan, the East China spot price fell 50 yuan to 4750 yuan, the basis was 36 yuan (- 55), and the 9 - 1 spread was 28 yuan (- 30) [24]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA operating rate increased by 0.5% to 78.2%. Some plants adjusted their loads. Downstream operating rates declined, and terminal demand weakened. In July, inventory is expected to decrease slightly, and the processing fee has support [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 16 yuan to 4283 yuan, the East China spot price rose 2 yuan to 4347 yuan, the basis was 71 (0), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 29 yuan (- 2) [25]. - **Supply and Demand**: The ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 0.7% to 66.5%. Some domestic and overseas plants had maintenance or restarted. Downstream operating rates declined, and port inventories increased. The fundamental situation is weak, and inventory reduction is expected to slow down [25].

2025年7月9日 星期三 股债 数据体现我国经济韧性,市场避险情绪缓和,建议股指多头持有。市场利率 盘整,国债走势窄幅反弹,国债多头轻仓持有。 黑色 临汾地区部分停产煤矿陆续复产,"反内卷"下成材供应或有望收缩,关注 政策的具体文件落地,需求侧暂无明显增量,螺纹供需弱平衡。 黄金 东南亚产区天气趋于缓和,割胶工作逐步恢复,胶水系需求拖拽,与原料杯 胶价格表现分化。轮胎样本企业产能利用率下行。供需两端矛盾未有明显缓 解,天然橡胶价格仍延续承压。 特朗普延长关税暂缓期,贸易谈判显示乐观情绪,但仍存不确定性。市场对 美联储最早降息时间推至10月,关注本周美联储会议纪要。预计黄金维持高 位震荡。 原木 现货市价格偏稳运行,到港量预计环减,供应中枢下移,供应压力减缓,日 均出库量维持在6.7万方左右,供需矛盾不大,关注原木期货交割对原木价格 的影响。 橡胶 生猪 当前养殖端挺价情绪较强,北方多地生猪走货顺畅,猪价短期或延续涨势, 进入7月后,南方生猪供应预计偏紧,或接棒北方引领新一轮行情上涨。 - 浙江新世纪期货有限公司 - 客服热线:400-700-2828 关注#新世纪期货#微信公众号 了解更多 油粗 美豆种植面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of July 7, 2025, the crude oil market showed mixed characteristics. Short - term oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with the central price likely to rise by $2 - 3. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical risks offset each other, and the actual production increase effect depends on Saudi Arabia's production release rhythm [2][3]. - The inventory structure shows regional differentiation. The tension in the Middle East may delay the crude oil shipping cycle, and the disruption of Red Sea transportation may trigger European refineries' restocking demand [3]. - The demand in the Indian market provides support. In June, gasoline consumption increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and the total fuel consumption reached 20.31 million tons. The increasing willingness of Asian refineries to start operations drives the cracking profit to expand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price Performance**: SC crude oil futures prices fell slightly by 0.24% to 502.3 yuan/barrel, but the post - market main contract rebounded 2.13% to 512 yuan/barrel. WTI slightly declined by 0.06% to 66.46 dollars/barrel, while Brent rose 1.59% to 69.6 dollars/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened by 56% to 3.14 dollars/barrel, and the SC - Brent cross - regional arbitrage space narrowed by 77% to 0.41 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Supply - side**: OPEC+ plans to approve a production increase of 550,000 barrels per day in September on August 3, but the implementation effect is questionable. The Israeli air strike on the oil facilities in the port of Hodeidah has intensified the supply - chain risks in the Red Sea route [2]. - **Demand - side**: In June, India's gasoline consumption increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and the total fuel consumption reached 20.31 million tons. The increasing willingness of Asian refineries to start operations drives the cracking profit to expand, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 2% during the day [2]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory structure shows regional differentiation. The SC spread (SC continuous 1 - continuous 3) narrowed to 14.8 yuan/barrel, and the Brent monthly spread structure remained steep [3]. - **Price Forecast**: Short - term oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with the central price likely to rise by $2 - 3. The production increase decision of OPEC+ and geopolitical risks offset each other. Technically, Brent has the momentum to rise further after breaking through the $69 resistance level, while WTI faces strong pressure around $67.5 [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of SC, WTI, and Brent futures showed different trends. Key spreads such as Brent - WTI and SC - Brent changed significantly. The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.93%, and the Cushing inventory decreased by 6.72%. The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.21% [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of various fuel oil futures and spot products showed different changes. The Singapore inventory increased by 3.91%. The Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 2.60% [6]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: OPEC+ oil - producing countries will approve a significant production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September on August 3 [7]. - **Demand**: In June, India's diesel sales increased by 1.6% year - on - year, gasoline sales increased by 6.9% year - on - year, and the fuel sales reached 20.31 million tons [9]. - **Inventory**: The main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose 2.00% during the day. The futures warehouse receipts of fuel oil and medium - sulfur crude oil remained unchanged [10]. - **Market Information**: As of 2:30 on July 8, the SC crude oil main contract rose 2.13%. The Brent crude oil futures price rose more than $1 during the day, and the night - session futures main contracts of the crude oil series all rose [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil market is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of both supply and demand weakening. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will hardly have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [4] - Regarding urea, the domestic urea supply - demand situation is acceptable, with support at the lower price level, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [6] - For rubber, it is expected to be easier to rise than fall in the second half of the year. A long - position mindset should be maintained for the medium - term, and long positions should be gradually established in batches. For the short - term, a neutral mindset is recommended, with short - term operations and quick in - and - out trading. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [10] - In the PVC market, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is still inventory reduction and weakening. The market is currently rebounding driven by the rebound of the black building materials sector, but will still be under pressure due to the weak fundamental expectations [12] - The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN is expected to recover [14] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain volatile. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there are no new capacity commissioning plans in July [17] - The price of polypropylene is expected to be bearish in July. However, the LL - PP spread has formed a bottom and is expected to gradually widen in the second half of the year [18] - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [20][21] - For PTA, in July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight inventory reduction, and the processing fee has support. The demand side is slightly under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [22] - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction in ports is expected to gradually slow down. The fundamental situation is weak, but it may be stronger in the short - term due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting on rallies [23] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI's main crude oil futures closed down $0.18, a 0.27% decline, at $67; Brent's main crude oil futures closed down $0.34, a 0.49% decline, at $68.51; INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.80 yuan, a 0.55% decline, at 503.5 yuan [1] - **Data**: European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 0.21 million barrels to 9.15 million barrels, a 2.23% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 0.55 million barrels to 14.35 million barrels, a 4.00% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.57 million barrels to 6.10 million barrels, an 8.48% decrease; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.39 million barrels to 5.23 million barrels, a 6.89% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 0.76 million barrels to 6.10 million barrels, an 11.03% decrease; the total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.37 million barrels to 40.93 million barrels, a 3.23% decrease [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes on July 4**: The 09 contract fell 15 yuan/ton to 2399 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of +46 [4] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level. Overseas plant operating rates have returned to medium - high levels. The market has gradually priced in the overseas supply disruptions, and market fluctuations have narrowed. On the demand side, the olefin plants at ports have reduced their loads, and it is the off - season for traditional demand, with the operating rate declining. After the recent decline in methanol prices, the downstream profit has improved, but the overall level is still low, and the methanol spot valuation is still high. It is expected that the upside space is limited in the off - season [4] Urea - **Market Quotes on July 4**: The 09 contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 1735 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of +55 [6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The short - term domestic operating rate has declined, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, and cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. On the demand side, the compound fertilizer operating rate has continued to decline, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound with the start of autumn fertilizer pre - sales. Export container shipping is still ongoing, and port inventories have increased significantly. The subsequent demand is concentrated on compound fertilizer autumn fertilizers and exports [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have adjusted downward in a volatile manner [8] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber forest conditions, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts, and rubber prices usually rise in the second half of the year. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, it is the seasonal off - season for demand, and the production cut may be less than expected [8] - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: As of July 3, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.73%, 1.89 percentage points lower than the previous week and 1.55 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 70.04%, 7.64 percentage points lower than the previous week and 9.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Tire enterprises' shipping rhythm has slowed down, and inventory is under pressure. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 million tons, a 0.7 - million - ton increase, or a 0.6% increase; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 78.9 million tons, a 1.2% increase; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 50.5 million tons, a 0.3% decrease. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.66 (+1.19) million tons [9][10] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 8 yuan to 4906 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4800 (+20) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 106 (+28) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 97 (+13) yuan/ton [12] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The overall operating rate of PVC this week was 77.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 42.9%, a 0.1% increase. Factory inventories were 38.6 million tons (-0.9), and social inventories were 59.2 million tons (+1.7). The corporate profit pressure has further increased, and there are many maintenance plans recently, but the production volume remains high, and there are expectations of multiple plant commissionings in the short - term. The domestic operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is gradually entering the off - season. In July, India's anti - dumping measures are expected to be implemented, and exports are expected to weaken. The cost support is expected to weaken as the calcium carbide production restriction eases [12] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot prices have fallen, while futures prices have risen, and the basis has weakened [14] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase over the weekend. The cost of pure benzene has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. The profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has increased, and the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have increased. It is the seasonal off - season, and the overall operating rate of the three S products on the demand side has decreased. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and BZN is expected to recover. It is expected that the styrene price will fluctuate with a downward bias [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have fallen. The主力 contract closed at 7282 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan decrease [17] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The market is awaiting the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase. The spot price of polyethylene has fallen, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. Traders' inventories at a high level have started to decline marginally, which provides some support for prices. It is the seasonal off - season, and the order volume of agricultural films on the demand side has decreased marginally, with the overall operating rate fluctuating downward. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there are no new capacity commissioning plans in July. The polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile [17] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices have risen. The主力 contract closed at 7078 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase [18] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. It is expected that the polypropylene price will be bearish in July. The LL - PP spread has formed a bottom and is expected to gradually widen in the second half of the year [18] PX & PTA & MEG PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 68 yuan to 6672 yuan, and PX CFR fell 9 dollars to 840 dollars. The basis was 254 yuan (-5), and the 9 - 1 spread was 90 yuan (-40) [20] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The Chinese PX operating rate was 81%, a 2.8% decrease; the Asian operating rate was 74.1%, a 1.1% increase. Some domestic plants have reduced their loads or undergone maintenance, while some overseas plants have restarted or increased their loads. In June, South Korea's PX exports to China were 34 million tons, a 3.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of May was 434.6 million tons, a 16.5 - million - ton decrease month - on - month. The PXN was 271 dollars (-11), and the naphtha crack spread was 73 dollars (+8). After the end of the maintenance season, the PX load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue inventory reduction. The current valuation is at a neutral level [20][21] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 36 yuan/ton to 4710 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 55 yuan to 4835 yuan. The basis was 97 yuan (-30), and the 9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan (-24) [22] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.5% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.6%, a 0.8% decrease. Some downstream plants have undergone maintenance or reduced their loads. On June 27, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 211.7 million tons, a 0.3 - million - ton decrease. The spot processing fee of PTA fell 7 yuan to 292 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 9 yuan to 333 yuan. In July, the expected increase in maintenance volume will lead to a slight inventory reduction, and the processing fee has support. The polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and it is not expected to significantly reduce production, but the bottle - chip plants have plans to reduce production. The demand side is slightly under pressure [22] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 4277 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4365 yuan. The basis was 76 (0), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 36 yuan (0) [23] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The ethylene glycol operating rate was 66.5%, a 0.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas plants have undergone maintenance or restarted. The downstream operating rate was 90.6%, a 0.8% decrease. Some downstream plants have undergone maintenance. The import arrival forecast was 15 million tons, and the East China departure volume on July 3 was 1 million tons. Port inventories were 54.5 million tons, a 7.7 - million - ton decrease. The naphtha - based production profit was - 483 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 828 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 1028 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 850 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 490 yuan. It is expected that the port inventory reduction will gradually slow down, and the fundamental situation is weak, but it may be stronger in the short - term due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants [23]