Group 1 - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, effective from August 1, 2025, which will not impact Indian companies due to India's copper supply shortage [2][4] - India is a copper resource-poor country, with copper exports to the U.S. being only about 10,000 tons, according to the International Copper Association [3] - India's strong demand for copper is driven by initiatives in renewable energy and electric vehicles, mitigating the impact of U.S. tariffs [3] Group 2 - A planning document predicts that copper demand will grow sixfold by 2047, with a plan to add 5 million tons of smelting and refining capacity annually by 2030 [5] - India remains a net importer of copper products, necessitating strategic measures across the entire value chain to meet growing demand [6] - In 2023, India imported 1 million tons of copper concentrate, primarily from a few countries [7] Group 3 - Indonesia is the largest exporter of copper ore and concentrate to India, accounting for approximately 27% of imports, followed by Chile (25%) and Peru (14%) [8] - Together, these four countries (Indonesia, Chile, Peru, and Panama) account for about 75% of India's copper concentrate imports [9]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美国三大股指集体上涨，美债利率快速回升。 当周，标普500上涨1.6%，道琼斯工业指数上涨2.3%；10Y 美债收益率上行6.0bp至4.4%；美元指数下跌0.3%至96.99，离岸人民币升值至7.1701；WTI原油上涨1.5% 至66.5美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨1.9%至3332.5美元/盎司。 关税豁免即将到期，警惕关税升级风险。 7月9日，美国进口商品的90天"关税暂停"即将到期。贝森特6月 27日接受采访时表示，约20个谈判进展缓慢的国家将可能被恢复4月2日的初始对等关税税率，只有被认 定"诚意协商"的伙伴才有望继续获得关税豁免延长。 美国6月非农数据强于市场预期，联储7月降息概率下降。 美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人，失业率回落至 4.1%，主要驱动力为州及地方政府就业增加。市场对联储7月降息预期降温，9月降息为基准假设。鲍威 尔在欧洲央行辛特拉论坛上发言，表示关税对通胀效果或在夏天显现。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 一、 大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一） ...

中国经济网北京7月10日讯德明利（001309）(001309.SZ)昨晚披露2025年半年度业绩预告显示，报告期内，公司预计 归属于上市公司股东的净利润-8,000万元至-12,000万元，上年同期为38,764.72万元；扣除非经常性损益后的净利 润-8,450万元至-12,450万元，上年同期为36,997.57万元；营业收入为380,000万元至420,000万元，比上年同期增长 74.63%至93.01%。 2022年、2023年、2024年，德明利经营活动产生的现金流量净额分别为-3.31亿元、-10.15亿元、-12.63亿元。 | | 2024 年 | 2023 年 | 本年比上年増减 | 2022 年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(元) | 4, 772, 546, 275. 05 | 1, 775, 912, 799. 26 | 168. 74% | 1, 190, 656, 505. 59 | | 归属于上市公司股东的 净利润(元) | 350, 553, 740. 48 | 24.998. 465. 34 | 1, 302. 30% ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-07-10 裕龙石化三线检修，检修损失量增加 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7278元/吨（+33），PP主力合约收盘价为7078元/吨（+33），LL华北现货为7180 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-98元/吨（-33），LL 华东基差为-8元/吨（-33）， PP华东基差为42元/吨（-33）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为94.8元/吨（-71.4），PP油制生产利润为-295.2元/吨（-71.4），PDH制PP生产利润 为250.4元/吨（-49.8）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-109.6元/吨（-10.0），PP进口利润为-634.8元/吨（-10.3），PP出口利润为29.5美元/吨（+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.2%（-1.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - The gold market is stabilizing with spot gold and COMEX gold prices fluctuating around $3,300 per ounce, as risk aversion sentiment decreases [1] - Heraeus Precious Metals predicts that international gold prices will fluctuate between $3,150 and $3,500 per ounce in the short term, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases [1][2] - U.S. economic data remains resilient, with June non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, which has weakened the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations for July, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks continue to support gold demand, with a net increase of 20 tons of gold in May, primarily from Kazakhstan, Turkey, and Poland [2] - Despite a slight slowdown in the pace of gold purchases, market sentiment remains optimistic, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting an increase in gold holdings [2] - The demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks is rising, reflecting a structural shift in reserve management and increased diversification away from the U.S. dollar [2] Group 3: Platinum Market Dynamics - Platinum prices are maintaining strength due to demand from the jewelry sector, with prices fluctuating around $1,400 per ounce [2][3] - The platinum market is in a three-year supply-demand imbalance, with visible inventories being continuously consumed, leading to high leasing rates for platinum [3] - China's jewelry demand has significantly boosted platinum prices, with imports increasing to 12.57 tons in May, up from 11.54 tons in April, indicating strong physical demand [3]

Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices showed a rebound after hitting a near two-week low of $3282.61 per ounce, closing at $3313.38 per ounce, indicating significant recovery momentum [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is driven by rising geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainties, and U.S. fiscal expansion, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] - The U.S. dollar index remains near a two-week high, exerting short-term pressure on gold, but the decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.34% partially offsets the impact of a stronger dollar [4][11] Group 2: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - The EU is accelerating trade negotiations with the U.S. to avoid tariff increases set by the Trump administration, focusing on reducing auto import tariffs and providing export credits for EU car manufacturers [5][6] - In-depth discussions on auto tariff rates and quotas have taken place, with proposals for providing tariff credits to manufacturers producing and exporting cars in the U.S., which could benefit companies like BMW and Mercedes [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance, with most policymakers focusing on potential inflation pressures from trade tariffs, maintaining the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.50% [8][9] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July are low, but there is an increasing probability of a first cut in September, with a cumulative cut of 50 basis points by year-end being likely [9] Group 4: U.S. Treasury Market Performance - The U.S. Treasury auction of $390 billion in 10-year notes saw a strong bid-to-cover ratio of 2.61, the highest since April, indicating reduced concerns about "selling U.S. assets" [10] - The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.34% reflects alleviated worries about fiscal outlook, creating a favorable environment for gold price rebound [11] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Gold price fluctuations are influenced by trade negotiations, dollar movements, and Federal Reserve policies, with short-term pressures from a stronger dollar and Treasury yield volatility [12] - Investors are advised to monitor initial jobless claims data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches to gauge market sentiment changes [12]

Core Insights - Live e-commerce is emerging as a significant force in stimulating new consumption in China, with projections indicating that the total transaction volume will exceed 4.5 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for nearly one-third of online retail sales and contributing 80% of the growth in e-commerce [1][2][3] - The integration of live streaming and sales, driven by data and supported by platforms, enhances customer experience and stimulates consumer purchasing desires, showcasing a transformative impact on traditional business models [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The normalization of live shopping has become a primary driver of consumption growth, with online retail sales expected to grow by 7.2% in 2024, and physical goods online retail sales increasing by 6.5%, outpacing the overall retail sales growth by 3 percentage points [1][3] - The rise of "interest e-commerce" combined with short videos allows for a comprehensive display of rural specialty products, directly connecting local products with consumers and driving economic development [2] Group 2: Supply Chain and Consumer Engagement - The ability to establish deep trust with consumers through authentic video content enables live e-commerce to effectively match supply and demand, with continuous evolution of supply chain capabilities acting as a crucial competitive advantage [7][9] - Merchants are increasingly leveraging live e-commerce to enhance their understanding of consumer needs, allowing for more targeted product design and the activation of latent consumer demand [10] Group 3: Brand Development and Market Expansion - Enhanced supply chain capabilities can lead to the emergence of new brands or innovative domestic players, expanding the value boundaries of live e-commerce [11] - Live e-commerce is reshaping the retail landscape by breaking traditional limitations, allowing merchants to reach a broader consumer base and significantly increasing market reach [11][12]

光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 10 日） 光大期货金融期货日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡收跌，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.18%，成交额 1.53 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数下跌 0.27%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.41%，沪深 300 指数下跌 | | | | 0.18%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.26%。传媒板块领涨，有色金属回调，板块轮动 | | | | 继续。近期中央财经委召开第六次会议，强调："纵深推进全国统一大市场建 | | | | 设，基本要求是"五统一、一开放"。市场对于反内卷背景下企业盈利回升和 | | | | 通胀企稳的预期颇高，但与 2016 年供给侧改个不同的是，本轮"反内卷"政 | | | | 2016 策并未配套类似于 年的增量财政政策，未来对相关题材的影响还需参 | | | 股指 | 考中央财政增量政策的转导方式和规模。海外方面，"非农"强劲背景下美联 | 震荡 | | | 储降息预期稍缓，国内小盘指数受到的提振明显减弱，未来需继续关注美国 | | ...

周三(7月9日)美元指数持平，收报97.49，现货白银收报36.38美元/盎司，下跌0.99%，在现货白银下跌 之际，其他贵金属涨跌不一：现货黄金上涨0.37%，报3313.34美元/盎司，现货铂金收跌1.45%，报 1344.67美元/盎司；现货钯金收跌0.17%，至1106.33元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 Blue Line Futures首席市场策略师Phillip Streible指出，市场波动、财政担忧以及美国赤字扩大的背景 下，投资者对白银的避险需求显著增加。全球经济面临多重不确定性，包括地缘政治风险和贸易政策的 不明朗，促使资金流向黄金这一传统避险资产，为银价提供了逢低买盘的支撑。 尽管避险需求为银价提供了支撑，但美元的强势表现却在一定程度上限制了银价的上行空间。美元指数 徘徊在两周多来的高点附近，使得白银对海外买家的吸引力有所下降。 与此同时，美国10年期国债收益率从逾两周高位回落至4.34%，为银价的反弹提供了一定助力。美债收 益率的下降反映了市场对美国财政前景的担忧有所缓解，而强劲的国债标售需求也表明投资者对美国资 产的信心并未完全动摇。这种美元与美债收益率的动态平衡，成为银价短期走势的重要 ...

[Table_Invest]增持 [Table_Info1] 中广核矿业(01164.HK) 建筑材料 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-07-10 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 港股公司报告 稀缺海外铀资源平台，受益铀价上行 中广核集团海外铀资源平台。公司是中国第一、全球第三大的核电集 团中广核集团下属上市子公司之一，亦是中广核集团旗下海外铀资源 开发的投、融资的唯一平台。中广核矿业是香港主板上市产量最大的 铀业集团，同时也是东亚目前唯一的纯铀业上市公司，主要业务为核 能企业使用的天然铀资源的开发与贸易。公司将抓住全球核电复苏和 天然铀需求持续增长的机遇，获取强成本竞争力的铀资源项目，致力 于成为国际一流的天然铀供应商。2024 年，公司权益资源量 3.4 万 tU， 权益产量 1324tU，全年实现营收 86.2 亿港元，净利润 3.4 亿港元。 已签订 2026~2028 关联交易合同，预期受益铀价上行。公司 6 月 3 日 公告，与中广核铀业签订销售框架协议，期限覆盖 2026 年~2028 年； 据框架协议，中广核铀业每年采购不低于 1200t 天然铀，每磅定价机 制为 ...