Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Cost continues to support the rise in PX valuation. The unilateral trend is expected to be strong, and the positive spread of the monthly difference should be held. PXN is strengthening [3]. - **PTA**: The unilateral price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take profit on the positive spread of the monthly difference at high levels. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [3]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is strong, but the upside space may be limited. Hedge by going long on PX and short on MEG [4]. 3. Summary by Sections **Fundamental Tracking** - **Daily Price Changes**: On June 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, and MEG decreased by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.8% respectively, while PF increased by 0.4%, and SC decreased by 0.8% [1]. - **Monthly Difference Changes**: The daily changes in the monthly differences of PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), and MEG (9 - 1) on June 20 were -40, -26, and -9 respectively, while PF(7 - 8) increased by 28, and PX - EB07 increased by 11 [1]. - **Inter - Variety Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the spreads of PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, etc. on June 20 showed various trends, such as an increase of 2 in PTA09 - 0.65PX09 and an increase of 28 in PTA09 - MEG09 [1]. - **Basis and Inventory Changes**: The PX basis increased by 18 on June 20, while the PTA basis decreased by 60. The PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 43,123, and the PX warehouse receipts decreased by 5 [1]. **Market Overview** - **Geopolitical Factor**: The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but the highest security agency needs to make the final decision [3]. **Market Views** - **PX**: The core driver of the current market remains on the cost side. Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, multiple PX plants have shut down for maintenance, tightening the supply in the Middle - East and potentially affecting China's PX imports. Domestic PX operating rates are expected to decline further [3]. - **PTA**: It is still a cost - driven market. The risk of the war between the US and Iran escalating may lead to a rise in crude oil prices, providing strong cost support for PTA. Fundamentally, PTA has entered a pattern of inventory accumulation [4]. - **MEG**: The domestic supply has room for growth. Although the profit margins of some devices have been compressed, the overall load has increased to 70%. Overseas, multiple Iranian plants have shut down, with the impact on China's imports expected to be reflected in the far - month contracts [4]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of PX is 2, while that of PTA and MEG is 1 [5].

黄金、原油开盘拉涨 受上周末中东局势升级影响，现货黄金周一高开，最高至3398美元/盎司；WTI原油高开3.7%。布伦特原油期货开盘上涨5.7%，至81.4美元/桶。截至发 稿，黄金、原油价格均有所回落。 此外，中东地区天然气供应也会受到干扰，并与其他能化品种产生共振效应。据了解，以色列6月15日对伊朗南帕尔斯气田的空袭已导致该地区日产气量 下降，随着冲突进一步扩大，欧洲TTF天然气基准价格和亚洲LNG现货价格可能被进一步推高。"油气价格具有强相关性，天然气供应紧张不仅会强化原 油市场的看涨情绪，还将增加中东甲醇和尿素的生产成本，导致相关生产装置运行不稳。"苗扬称。 "美伊正面冲突已成现实，中东冲突呈现加速扩大化趋势。"广发期货分析师苗扬认为，美国从幕后支援转向直接打击伊朗战略核资产，标志冲突性质转变 为地区大国与世界强权间的军事对抗。 "美军直接介入伊朗核设施打击，符合此前机构推演。"海通期货能化负责人杨安表示，当前冲突暂限于核设施层面，但美国入局已为油价注入5～10 美元/ 桶的地缘溢价。"风险度提升是确定的，虽暂未失控，但市场情绪可能引发剧烈波动。" 在紫金天风期货分析师汤剑林看来，伊朗作为能源输出国， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts intensify supply concerns, and market volatility risks are rising. From June 14th to 20th, supported by the increase in crude oil prices and the expected decline in supply, the international liquefied gas market rose strongly across the board. In China, the price of civil gas first rose and then fell. At the beginning of the week, the market was supported by news, but the demand was weak, and the upstream faced pressure in sales and prices declined. The price of etherified C4 continued to rise during the week due to the increase in the operating rate of downstream MTBE. As of June 20th, the market price of etherified C4 in Shandong was 5,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton from last Friday. In terms of supply, the domestic liquefied gas production decreased slightly, and the increase in propane arrivals was less than expected due to typhoon weather. In terms of demand, the chemical demand recovered significantly. The operating rate of propane dehydrogenation units increased by 1.90% to 66.20% week-on-week, and the MTBE operating rate increased by 4.01% to 63.71% week-on-week. Next week, Wanda Tianhong's PDH plans to conduct maintenance and stop production, but the previously opened manufacturers will gradually increase their loads. Therefore, it is expected that China's PDH operating rate will increase slightly next week. In summary, this week's PG changes were mainly dominated by the expected decline in market supply caused by geopolitics. Fundamentally, the civil demand remained seasonally weak, and the overall chemical end's operation continued to recover. It is expected to have a certain boost in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor subsequent geopolitical developments, PDH unit operations, and import arrivals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price & Spread - The document presents various price and spread data of LPG and related propane contracts, including the main LPG contract, APS propane main contract, AFE propane main contract, their forward curves, and the spreads between different contract months of LPG and propane. It also shows the domestic spot prices and basis of different regions, such as East China, South China, and Shandong, for imported gas, civil gas, and etherified C4, as well as historical data on regional price premiums, discounts, and freight rates [7][9][13]. 3.2 Supply - **US Exports**: The document shows the historical data of US propane exports to different regions, including Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea, from 2019 to 2025 [30][32]. - **Middle East Exports**: It presents the historical data of LPG exports from the Middle East and major countries such as Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar from 2019 to 2025 [35][39]. - **Imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea**: The historical data of LPG imports in China, India, Japan, and South Korea from 2019 to 2025 are provided [42]. - **Domestic Supply in China**: The domestic liquefied gas production was 528,000 tons (-0.30%), and civil gas was 224,900 tons (-1.75%). The domestic propane supply was 374,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.82%. Domestically, the total commercial volume of refineries was 40,900 tons, an increase of 1.74% from last week. The international ship arrivals were 333,300 tons, mainly in East China. Due to typhoon weather, the actual arrivals this week were far lower than expected [44][48]. 3.3 Demand - Chemical demand showed significant recovery. The operating rate of propane dehydrogenation units increased by 1.90% to 66.20% week-on-week, and the MTBE operating rate increased by 4.01% to 63.71% week-on-week. The document also presents historical data on the operating rates and profits of alkylation, MTBE, and PDH [52][53].

Report Information - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report [1] - Date: June 22, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Liang Kefang [1] Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, global fuel oil prices continued to rise with the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, reaching a new high for the year. The crack spread and monthly spread of high-sulfur fuel oil slightly declined from their peaks, while low-sulfur fuel oil was relatively strong in the short term [4]. - The ongoing expansion of the geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel has caused crude oil prices and related oil product prices to continue to soar. As the world's most important energy trade route, the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz may be restricted, and the risk premium will still be included in the fuel oil price until the geopolitical risk is lifted [4]. - From a fundamental perspective, the export volume from the Middle East has remained stable in the short term and does not seem to have been significantly affected. Despite support from the demand side and the presence of geopolitical risks, the upside potential of high-sulfur fuel oil may be limited before there is a substantial decline in supply [4]. - Although low-sulfur fuel oil's share of the marine fuel demand has been continuously squeezed by high-sulfur fuel oil, the exports from Brazil and Northwest Europe to Asia have both declined, which has improved the supply-demand balance in the Asia-Pacific market. As a result, the monthly spread and crack spread of low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore have also increased along with the price [4]. - Compared with the overseas market, the low-sulfur fuel oil output of domestic refineries is expected to recover soon. The increase in spot supply may cause LU to be relatively weaker than the overseas market in the future [4]. Summary by Directory Overview - This week, fuel oil prices continued to rise significantly. The core of the current geopolitical conflict lies in the possible restriction of the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz. Before the geopolitical risk is removed, the risk premium will be included in the fuel oil price. The export volume from the Middle East has remained stable in the short term, and the upside potential of high-sulfur fuel oil may be limited. The decline in exports from Brazil and Northwest Europe to Asia has improved the supply-demand balance in the Asia-Pacific market for low-sulfur fuel oil. However, the recovery of domestic refinery output may cause LU to be relatively weaker than the overseas market [4]. Supply - **Refinery Operations**: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries from 2016 - 2025 are presented [6]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance**: Data on the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units from 2018 - 2025 are provided [9][11][13][14]. - **Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commodity Volume**: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil commodity volume in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [19]. Demand - **Domestic and Overseas Fuel Oil Demand Data**: Data on the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, the apparent consumption of fuel oil in China, and the actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China from 2018 - 2025 are provided [22]. Inventory - **Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Data on the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in the European ARA region, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the United States from 2018 - 2025 are presented [25][27][28]. Price and Spread - **Asia-Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore, 3.5% fuel oil in the Mediterranean, 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, and 1% fuel oil in the Mediterranean from 2018 - 2025 are provided [36][38][39][41]. - **European Regional Spot FOB Prices**: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, 3.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, high-sulfur fuel oil cargo in the New York Harbor, 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, and low-sulfur straight-run fuel oil in the USAC from 2018 - 2025 are presented [43][44]. - **Paper and Derivative Prices**: Data on the high-sulfur and low-sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe, the low-sulfur fuel oil swaps in Singapore, the 380 bunker swaps in Singapore, FU, and LU from 2021 - 2025 are provided [46][51]. - **Fuel Oil Spot Spread**: Data on the high - low sulfur spread and viscosity spread in Singapore from 2019 - 2025 are presented [55][56]. - **Global Fuel Oil Crack Spread**: Data on the high-sulfur crack spread in Singapore, the 3.5% crack spread in Northwest Europe, the low-sulfur crack spread in Singapore, and the 1% crack spread in Northwest Europe from 2019 - 2025 are presented [60][62][63]. - **Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread**: Data on the M1 - M2 and M2 - M3 monthly spreads of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe from 2022 - 2025 are provided [66][67]. Import and Export - **Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China from 2018 - 2025 are presented [72][74]. - **Global High-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global high-sulfur fuel oil in various regions are provided [77]. - **Global Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data**: Data on the weekly changes in the import and export volumes of global low-sulfur fuel oil in various regions are provided [79].

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 地缘冲突的涟漪 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ► 行情回顾：地缘冲突的涟漪 6 月 9-13 日，权益市场高位回落。截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日， 万得全 A 收盘价为 5087.26，较 6 月 13 日下跌 1.07%。 小微盘行情显著承压，是本周市场较为关键的边际变化，这 或是在主动调和积累已久的结构性矛盾。5 月底中证 2000 拥 挤度达到历史高位，这对小微盘行情的支撑逻辑提出了更高 的要求。而地缘冲突的加剧则给了市场主动释放风险的窗 口，中证 2000 加速下跌。 ► 海外线索：以伊冲突延续，美联储继续暂停降息 本周以伊冲突延续，未见缓和迹象。同时，美联储继续暂停 降息，表态略偏鹰，预测偏向"滞胀"，推动美元走强。此 外，美国核心零售韧性仍存，汽车零售大幅放缓。日本方 面，日本央行维持利率不变，明年起削减购债规模。 整体来看，海外"乱纪元"的叙事并未改变，继关税之后， 中东地缘冲突爆发，美国搅入其中，进一步推升不确定性。 此外，距离 ...

甲醇周报 | 2025-06-22 港口供应方面：海外甲醇开工率52.07%（+0.00%）；中国进口甲醇周频到港量25.70万吨（-20.33），其中华东到港 量24.11万吨（-13.82），华南到港量1.59万吨（-6.51）。 内地供应方面：中国甲醇开工率88.65%（+0.67%），其中煤制甲醇开工率83.90%（+3.01%）、天然气甲醇开工率48.36% （-0.52%）、焦炉气甲醇开工率60.28%（+0.17%）；西北开工率92.49%（+2.04%），华北开工率68.71%（-5.33%）， 华中开工率94.27%（-0.09%），华东开工率80.03%（-3.69%），西南开工率87.29%（+5.30%）。 港口需求方面：太仓周均提货量1521吨/天（-864），华东MTO企业周度采购量187300吨（-153800），外采甲醇MTO 企业开工率80.46%（-5.39%）。 内地需求方面：甲醇企业待发订单量274780吨（-27310）。传统下游样本企业原料采购量30300吨（-2500），甲醛开 工率51.23%（-1.02%）、醋酸开工率88.33%（-3.27%）、MTBE外销 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East during the late stage of the Kondratiev wave depression, highlighting the negative impact on the A-share market and suggesting a low position in both the main board and small-cap sectors [1][3][4]. Market Performance - Last week, the market adjusted as expected, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.45%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.51%, and the CSI 500 index down by 1.75% [3]. - The overall market activity has significantly decreased, despite the banking sector showing strength, which slightly mitigated the decline in the main board [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. has intervened in attacks against Iran, while domestic data from China shows a continued decline in industrial production, indicating a negative outlook for the A-share market [3][4]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed a significant drop in consumption, and industrial production continues to weaken, reflecting a divergence from the earlier market rally [3][4]. - U.S. retail data has also begun to weaken, confirming previous assessments of a temporary effect from "import grabbing" in the first quarter of the year [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Institutional capital flow has weakened, aligning with the fundamental outlook, and the market is expected to continue its downward trend due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4]. - The main board's timing perspective suggests maintaining a low position to avoid risks, while the small-cap sector, which had previously benefited from capital inflows, is also advised to maintain a low position due to weakening economic rebound logic [4]. Sector Focus - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the communication industry as a potential area of interest [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to face significant turmoil, with the Federal Reserve likely to intervene only when panic sets in, indicating a potential crisis rather than a minor disturbance [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, anticipates a major deleveraging moment in the U.S. Treasury market, suggesting that the status of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset is being undermined [2][4]. - The ongoing trade war initiated by Trump has led to unusual market behaviors, such as simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, indicating a shift in risk management strategies among investors [4][6]. - The liquidity in the Treasury market remains tight, with the Federal Reserve reducing capital buffers to allow market makers to handle more Treasuries, highlighting the urgency of the situation [4][10]. Group 2: Geopolitical Events Impact - The recent Israeli airstrikes on Iran have not prompted the expected influx of safe-haven investments into U.S. Treasuries, which traditionally would occur during geopolitical crises [5][8]. - The dollar's initial reaction to the airstrikes was a decline, which is atypical for a safe-haven asset, further indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. Treasuries [6][8]. - The performance of gold and oil has surged, while Treasuries and the dollar have not attracted safe-haven flows, suggesting a significant shift in market perception [5][8]. Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - The U.S. fiscal management is described as "disastrous," with unrealistic tax and spending policies that could lead to a weaker economic outlook [9]. - A global debt crisis is looming, with long-term bond auctions in developed countries facing issues, driven by unsustainable fiscal policies and declining demand from traditional buyers [10]. - The transition of long-term Treasury purchases from traditional buyers to highly leveraged hedge funds raises the likelihood of a significant crisis in the Treasury market [10].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical conflicts and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on gold prices, which are currently at a crossroads [1] - It emphasizes the need for investors to identify the best entry points in the gold market amidst these influences [1]

Group 1 - Current spot gold price opened at $3370.38 per ounce, with a daily high of $3370.43 and a low of $3344.71, reflecting a slight decline of 0.7% [1][2] - The market is at a critical juncture between "geopolitical conflict risk" and "hawkish Federal Reserve policies," leading to a stalemate in gold prices [1][3] Group 2 - The ongoing deterioration of the Middle East situation, including an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation, has led to a marginal decrease in safe-haven demand for gold [2][3] - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the market shows signs of fatigue regarding risk, with gold futures in New York down 0.82% and Shanghai gold T+D down 0.63% [2][3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with a shift in the dot plot indicating a reduction in rate cut expectations for 2025 [3][5] - Market participants are still betting on a 62% probability of a rate cut in September, despite the Fed's hawkish stance [3][5] Group 4 - Economic data shows a mixed picture, with initial jobless claims reaching 245,000, the highest in eight months, indicating labor market weakness, while manufacturing and services PMIs suggest economic resilience [5] - The CPI data indicates that inflation pressures may not have fully materialized, but rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions could lead to imported inflation [5] Group 5 - Technical analysis indicates a struggle between bulls and bears, with gold prices facing resistance at the $3400 level and support around the 20-day moving average at $3347 [6][8] - The hourly chart shows a sideways movement in the $3361-$3379 range, with potential for a downward move if the price falls below $3361 [8][10]