Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how market fluctuations are driven by various "expectations," with major expectations leading to trend-driven markets and minor expectations influencing trading activities [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. International Trade Court has halted the implementation of Trump's tariffs, resulting in a rally in overseas risk assets and a strong performance in the stock market [2]. - The bond market showed cautious sentiment, with the 10-year government bond yield opening slightly higher at 1.6875% and peaking at 1.698% before retreating [2]. - The funding environment is described as balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 266 billion yuan, leading to a net injection of 111.5 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - There is a noted easing in fund redemptions, which contributed to a decline in interest rates towards the end of the trading day [2]. - The article mentions a humorous inquiry from institutions questioning the bond market's reaction despite the liquidity measures, suggesting a disconnect between market expectations and actual performance [2]. - High-profile analysts, such as Goldman Sachs, indicate that Trump may still have options to appeal the court's decision, which could lead to further volatility in the markets [2].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic policies since 2025 have been coordinated to promote high-quality development, leading to a positive economic outlook. The central bank's recent actions, including interest rate cuts and targeted reductions for small and innovative enterprises, signify the start of a monetary easing phase aimed at countering external economic pressures and boosting domestic demand [1] - The recent reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S. has restored market conditions to pre-tariff levels, which is expected to enhance investor risk appetite [1] - The secondary bond funds have gained popularity among investors seeking stable returns, with the launch of the Guolian Stable Gain Bond Fund on May 19, which aims for absolute returns with low volatility through rigorous risk control and proactive asset allocation [1] Group 2 - The issuance of secondary bond funds has surged, with an average fundraising scale of 2.064 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.6% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 13.59% [2] - Historical data shows that the secondary bond fund index has increased by 392.88% since inception, with an annualized return of 7.99%, outperforming major indices like the CSI 300 and other bond fund categories [2] - The secondary bond fund index has a significantly lower annualized volatility compared to the CSI 300, demonstrating its effectiveness as a stabilizing asset during market fluctuations [2][4] Group 3 - The Guolian Stable Gain Bond Fund is designed to focus on absolute returns while controlling drawdowns, catering to investors' needs for both stability and potential yield [5] - The fund will be managed by experienced professionals, including Zheng Ling, who has a strong track record in equity investment, and Han Zhengyu, who specializes in fixed income [6][8] - Zheng Ling emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable investment portfolio and aims to build positions during market corrections to mitigate risks associated with high entry points [7]

2025 年 05 月 14 日 国债期货：股债跷跷板显著，曲线走平长端收 红 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 林致远 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021471 | linzhiyuan@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 5 月 13 日，国债期货收盘多数收涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.13%，10 年期主力合约涨 0.03%，5 年期 主力合约跌 0.01%，2 年期主力合约涨 0.03%。 国债期货指数为-0.08。量价因子看多，基本面因子看多。无杠杆下，策略近 20 日累加收益为 0.09%，近 60 日累加收益为-0.82%，近 120 日累加收益为 0.28%，近 240 日累加收益为 1.27%。 权益市场方面，A 股市场全天呈现高开低走的态势，三大指数涨跌不一。南财金融终端显示，截至收 盘，沪指涨 0.17%，深成指跌 0.13%，创业板指跌 0.12%。盘面上，市场热点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少， 全市场超 3200 只个股下跌。 资金方面，隔夜 shibor 报 1.4220%，较前一交易日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to remain in a mid - term shock pattern, with the stock - bond seesaw being an important influencing factor. The increase in bond supply will be a mid - term negative for the bond market, and the bond market may return to the economic fundamentals and policy trading logic later [2][30]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - After the May Day holiday, the expected reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut were implemented, and the Sino - US trade tariff negotiation made progress, which repaired market risk appetite. The rise of the stock market pressured the bond market, and the supply of ultra - long - term treasury bonds still affected the bond market, which remained in a shock state [9]. Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - In April, China's CPI turned from a 0.4% decline in the previous month to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Core CPI rose by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year. PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [15]. - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI and composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range [15]. - During the "May Day" holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous. The sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The subsidy applications for car trade - ins exceeded 60,000, driving new car sales of 8.8 billion yuan. Consumers bought 3.56 million units of 12 major categories of household appliances, driving sales of 11.9 billion yuan, and 2.42 million pieces of digital products such as mobile phones, driving sales of 6.4 billion yuan [16]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland from May 10th to 11th, achieving important consensus and substantial progress [16]. - From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 1.50936 trillion yuan, turning from a 3.3% year - on - year decline in the previous year to a 0.8% increase. In March, the profit turned from a 0.3% decline in January - February to a 2.6% increase. Nearly 60% of industries saw profit growth, and the manufacturing industry improved significantly, with a 7.6% profit growth in the first quarter, accelerating by 2.8 percentage points [16]. Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - After the Two Sessions, various measures to promote consumption were implemented. Although there was no large - scale stimulus policy, detailed policies for the real economy and industrial chain were continuously introduced. The economic data showed a mixed picture, with the consumer market being active during the "May Day" holiday, but the manufacturing PMI declining in April [17]. 3.2 Policy Aspects - In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period of the previous year. At the end of March, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan in the first quarter. Most money market interest rates declined [20]. 3.3 Capital Aspects - Although the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate and policy interest rate did not change significantly, bond market interest rates and DR007 decreased significantly, indicating a certain degree of loose capital. There was still an expectation of further monetary easing, which would support the bond market. However, due to the partial implementation of monetary easing, the probability of significant monetary easing in the near term was low, and the bond market was still influenced by the stock - bond seesaw logic [21]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspects - The government debt combination in 2025 included a 4% deficit ratio, 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, 500 billion yuan of special treasury bonds to replenish bank capital, 4.4 trillion yuan of special bonds, and 2 trillion yuan of replacement bonds, with the broad deficit ratio reaching 9.8%, a significant increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year. As of March 3rd this year, about 2.1 trillion yuan of local government bonds were issued, with the issuance significantly accelerating compared to the same period of the previous year [24]. 3.5 Sentiment Aspects - The stock - bond ratio was still at a relatively high level although it had declined from the historical high, indicating that the cost - performance of allocating to the bond market was low. Institutions were more likely to focus on stock market opportunities. The bond market was in a wide - range shock, and its short - term trend was greatly affected by the stock market, but it might return to the economic fundamentals later [27]. Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the Politburo meeting in April, the bond supply may increase, which is a mid - term negative for the bond market. The bond market will return to the economic fundamentals and policy trading logic, and the stock - bond seesaw will still be an important influencing factor. The bond market may remain in a shock pattern in the mid - term, and investors should pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw [30].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "double reduction" policy by the central bank is expected to positively impact the short-end bond market, particularly benefiting the 0-4 year local government bond ETF, which has shown strong performance and liquidity [3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of May 8, 2025, the 0-4 year local government bond ETF (159816) has increased by 0.03%, marking its seventh consecutive rise, with the latest price at 113.45 yuan [1]. - The ETF has achieved a record high in scale, reaching 1.842 billion yuan, the highest in nearly a year [2]. - The ETF has demonstrated active trading, with an intraday turnover of 134.69% and a transaction volume of 2.481 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Insights - The "double reduction" policy is anticipated to release medium to long-term liquidity, which is favorable for short-end bonds and certificates of deposit [3]. - The sensitivity of short-end interest rates to liquidity conditions suggests that the recent monetary easing will create downward space for short-end rates, contingent on the pace of funding rate declines [3]. - The 0-4 year local government bond ETF closely tracks the CSI 0-4 Year Local Government Bond Index, which includes bonds with a remaining maturity of 4 years or less, reflecting the overall performance of this segment [3][4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Short - term bullish on Treasury bonds [3] - The stock index is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [1] Group 2: Core Views Stock Index - The EU plans to expand counter - measures; if negotiations fail, it will impose tariffs on $100 billion worth of US goods. Meetings between US and Canadian leaders have different stances. High - level China - US economic and trade talks and the 10th China - France High - level Economic and Financial Dialogue will be held. The spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce answered questions about the China - US economic and trade talks. Relevant departments will introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations". With multiple positive factors, the stock index may oscillate with a slight upward trend [1] Treasury Bonds - The impact of the stock - bond seesaw on the bond market is not significant. The core factor restricting the decline of yields is the capital price. Although the overall capital situation is balanced, the central bank's actions in April and after the holiday show the restraint of the capital market. The "relatively high" capital interest rate is the biggest obstacle to the decline of current yields [2] Group 3: Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.13%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.67%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.99%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 2.39% [4] Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.11%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.06% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [5] Treasury Bonds - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract will oscillate with a slight upward trend [7] Group 5: Strategy Suggestions Stock Index - Oscillatory operation [2] Treasury Bonds - Short - term bullish [3] Group 6: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3766.20 | 1.13 | 47831 | 138953 | | 2025/05/06 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2629.60 | 0.67 | 25377 | 44285 | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5622.00 | 1.99 | 43200 | 97319 | | 2025/05/06 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5953.20 | 2.39 | 107389 | 160100 | | 2025/05/06 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | - 0.01 | 49555 | 189565 | | 2025/05/06 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.06 | - 0.04 | 46541 | 155595 | | 2025/05/06 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.97 | 0.11 | 61695 | 102169 | | 2025/05/06 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.31 | - 0.06 | 28361 | 93460 | [9]

Group 1: Report Core Views - Market anticipates the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at the May meeting, with focus on Powell's policy tone and tariff policy interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. - Kepler lowers the forecast of US crude supply growth for the rest of 2025 and 2026 by 120,000 barrels per day to 170,000 barrels per day. Crude has short - term inventory pressure, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading is recommended [2]. - Market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision, expecting rates to remain unchanged. Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver should be considered with a medium - term wide - range oscillation view [4]. - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. The bond market has an unclear internal logic, and the stock - bond seesaw is the main logic. A medium - term oscillation view is appropriate for bonds [4]. - Coke supply is slightly increasing, and demand is stable, but the expected future demand is under pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - For rebar, supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. - The national hog price is expected to be stable. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended for operation [6]. - Iron ore's short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand sustainability, crude steel reduction policies, and domestic macro - policies [7]. - Palm oil production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. - Domestic soybean supply will improve significantly. Holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. - Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. - PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. - Methanol's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [10]. - Soda ash's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies is recommended [11]. - Caustic soda's short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate. Wait - and - see is recommended [12]. Group 2: Specific Variety Analysis Gold - Before the Fed's meeting, "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos implies a possible rate - cut suspension. Market awaits Fed's policy tone and tariff interpretation. Gold should be considered with a slightly bearish view in the medium - term high - level oscillation [2]. Crude Oil - Kepler lowers US crude supply growth forecast. China's positive macro - policy and tariff news boost market confidence. Short - term inventory pressure is low, and supply is expected to be in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term wait - and - see or short - term trading [2]. Silver - Before the Fed's decision, risk - aversion dominates Wall Street. Market expects rates to remain unchanged, and Powell may suppress rate - cut expectations. Silver has a medium - term wide - range oscillation view, and Fed's rate - cut expectations should be monitored [4]. Treasury Bonds - China and the US start contacts and talks, which is good for risk assets. A - shares rose, which is bad for bonds. The bond market's internal logic is unclear, and a medium - term oscillation view is appropriate [4]. Coke - Coke total inventory is 10.123 million tons (-25,000 tons). Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is stable, but future demand is under pressure. Short - term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. Rebar - Some steel mills adjust prices. Supply is slightly rising, and demand is pessimistic. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely [5]. Hogs - The national hog price is stable. Supply and demand change little in the short - term. Short - term long or wait - and - see is recommended, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter schedule [6]. Iron Ore - Steel mills' imported iron ore inventory increases. Supply is expected to rise, and demand may weaken in mid - to - late May. Short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the upside is limited [7]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's April palm oil production increases by 24.62% to 1.73 million tons. Production is growing, and near - month prices are under pressure. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [7]. Soybeans - China's imported Brazilian soybeans will enter factories in May and June. Supply will improve, and holding long positions in soybean No. 1 is recommended [7]. Rubber - Thai raw material prices rise, and Thailand delays the rubber tapping season. Rubber is expected to rebound in the short - term. Buying on dips is recommended [8]. PTA - PX and PTA are under concentrated maintenance, and downstream开工率 decreases. Supply - demand is expected to weaken. Wait - and - see is recommended [9]. Methanol - Methanol price drops, and开工率 decreases. Cost is stable, and demand declines. Port inventory may increase. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [10]. Soda Ash - Soda ash price is slowly falling, and开工率 decreases. Supply is expected to decline, and demand is average. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [11]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda price rises, and企业库存 decreases. Some downstream production capacity is expected to resume. Short - term 09 contract is expected to oscillate [12].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant volatility in 2025, contrasting sharply with the favorable conditions of 2024, leading to disappointing returns for investors in pure bond funds [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - In 2024, the bond market thrived under a loose monetary policy, with some pure bond funds achieving annualized returns exceeding 15%, such as Huatai Baoxing Anyue, which reached 17.96% [1][3]. - However, in the first quarter of 2025, the bond market faced tightening liquidity, resulting in a slowdown in net value growth for pure bond funds, with some even showing negative returns [3][4]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a notable increase of approximately 30 basis points at the beginning of 2025, impacting the asset values of pure bond funds [3][4]. Group 2: "Fixed Income +" Products - In contrast to the bond market, the A-share market showed strong performance in early 2025, driven by sectors like humanoid robots and AI, benefiting "fixed income +" products that combine equity investments with bonds [4][5]. - "Fixed income +" products, which include a mix of stable bond assets and more aggressive equity investments, outperformed pure bond funds, with average returns of 0.42% compared to 0.37% for pure bond funds by April 30, 2025 [7][8]. - The total scale of "fixed income +" products saw significant growth, with several fund managers reporting increases exceeding 100 billion yuan in 2025 [8][9]. Group 3: Fund Management Strategies - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on diversified strategies to mitigate risks associated with market volatility, emphasizing the importance of a systematic approach to investment [10]. - The performance of "fixed income +" products is heavily influenced by the underlying equity assets, which can lead to greater net value fluctuations compared to pure fixed income products [11][13]. - Investors are advised to carefully select "fixed income +" products that align with their risk preferences to avoid significant deviations from expected outcomes [13].

Core Insights - The Chinese banking wealth management market experienced a significant contraction in the first quarter of 2025, with a decrease of approximately 810 billion yuan compared to the end of 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of the end of Q1 2025, the total number of wealth management products in the market was 40,600, an increase of 300 products from the end of 2024 [2]. - The total market size for wealth management products stood at 29.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of about 810 billion yuan [2]. - The decline in market size was attributed to seasonal factors, adjustments in the bond market, and weakened returns on wealth management products [2][3]. Group 2: Product Composition - Fixed income products accounted for 28.33 trillion yuan, representing 97.22% of the total market size, which is an increase of 0.57% year-on-year [4]. - Mixed-asset products had a size of 720 billion yuan, with a market share of 2.47%, down 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - Equity products and financial derivatives had minimal market sizes of 80 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan, respectively, with shares of only 0.27% and 0.03% [4]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The allocation of wealth management funds was primarily towards bonds (13.68 trillion yuan), cash and bank deposits (7.27 trillion yuan), and interbank certificates of deposit (4.20 trillion yuan), making up 43.9%, 23.3%, and 13.5% of total investment assets, respectively [5]. - Investments in equity assets, public funds, and financial derivatives accounted for smaller proportions of 2.6%, 3.0%, and 0.05% [5]. - The current low-interest-rate environment is expected to drive diversification in wealth management fund allocations to enhance returns in the long term [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Industry analysts remain optimistic about the recovery of the wealth management market, with expectations of an increase of approximately 800 billion to 1.2 trillion yuan in April 2025 [7]. - The market has shown signs of recovery, with rising yields on wealth management products and a trend of deposit rate cuts by several banks, leading to potential shifts of funds from deposits to wealth management [7]. - Citic Securities predicts that the market size could exceed 32.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with "fixed income plus" products expected to be a focus for wealth management subsidiaries [8].

"存款搬家"带来增量资金。 2025年第一季度，中国银行理财市场经历了规模的显著调整。 据银行业理财登记托管中心发布的《中国银行业理财市场季度报告》（下称《报告》），截至3月末， 理财市场规模整体缩水，存续规模较2024年末减少约8100亿元。 然而，进入4月以来，市场出现回暖迹象，理财规模重新恢复增长态势。与此同时，随着商业银行存款 利率的下调以及理财产品收益率的回升，投资者"存款搬家"现象越发明显，为理财市场带来了新的增量 资金。 今年一季度，债券市场呈现出较为明显的波动态势。作为理财产品的重要基础资产，其市场表现直接拖 累理财产品的收益表现。根据普益标准的统计数据，截至一季度末，理财公司存续开放式固收类理财产 品（不含现金管理类产品）的近1个月年化收益率的平均水平为2.24%，环比再度下跌1.15个百分点。 一季度规模回落超8000亿元 《报告》显示，2025年第一季度，理财市场规模整体呈现缩水态势。 数据显示，截至2025年一季度末，全市场存续的理财产品数量为4.06万只，相较于2024年末增长了300 只；存续规模为29.14万亿元，整体规模却减少了约8100亿元。 "主要原因是受到季末回表因素的影 ...