苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-20 EB开工进一步回升，PS库存压力仍存 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存15.30万吨（+0.40万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费158美元/吨（+9美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费141美元/吨（+9美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差45.8美元/吨（-3.9美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-45元/吨（+5元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差341元/吨（+24元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润255元/吨（+49元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存66300吨（-13700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存45000吨（-13100吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯 乙烯开工率79.0%（+5.2%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润131元/吨（+11元/吨），PS生产利润-419元/吨（-39元/吨），ABS生产利润45元/吨（-65 元/吨）。EPS开工率53.63%（-1.84%），PS开工率58.70%（+0.40%），ABS开工率63.97%（-0.11%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 目前主要芳烃系品种主要驱动在最上游的原油端，关注地缘冲突进展及 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The recent strong trend of crude oil prices supports the prices of PX and PTA, mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. The polyester load remains strong despite the production - cut plan [1]. - In the cost - end, the oil price has risen sharply due to the intensification of the conflict between Israel and Iran. If the conflict affects energy facilities and the Strait of Hormuz, the oil price may rise further; otherwise, the geopolitical premium may decline [2]. - The gasoline cracking spread in the US has declined, and the blending demand is limited. The short - process PX plants may restart as the profit recovers [2]. - With the end of the centralized maintenance period and profit repair, the PX load has increased, and the PXN has declined. The PX load will drop again in July, and attention should be paid to whether the supply - demand tightness continues [2]. - As PTA devices are gradually restarted, the supply becomes more abundant, and the processing fee is compressed. The PTA price is expected to fluctuate following the cost - end, depending on the development of the Israel - Iran situation [3]. - The polyester start - up rate has slightly declined, terminal orders have weakened again, and the demand is expected to be weak in the off - season. Attention should be paid to further production - cut actions after the raw material price rebound [3]. - The short - fiber price will remain high due to low inventory and maintenance of processing margins. Traders have sold most of the June contracts in advance and will hold a small amount of inventory later [3]. - The processing fee of polyester bottle - chips has increased, but the inventory pressure has risen again due to high sea - freight in June. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - cut plans and container freight changes [4]. - In the short term, PX, PTA, PF, and PR are bullish under the Israel - Iran conflict. As the devices restart and the polyester load declines, the fundamentals will weaken marginally. Attention should be paid to further production - cut actions and the evolution of geopolitical conflicts [5]. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [10][11][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It involves figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [29][32][34] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and dyeing machines [49][51][53] VII. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventory, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, original - regenerated spread, pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn operating rates, and production profits [73][83][85] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, price difference between East China water bottle - chips and regenerated 3A - grade white bottle - chips, and month - to - month spreads [93][95][102]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current market is mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts. Iranian methanol plant shutdowns will affect future Chinese arrivals. Port inventories decreased slightly this week, and the absolute inventory level is seasonally low. After the port basis strengthened rapidly, it declined slightly. The market is worried about the loss and maintenance of port MTO plants that purchase methanol externally. Attention should be paid to whether the MTO plant maintenance at the end of the month will be realized. In the inland area, the coal - based methanol operation rate remains high, but the inland plant inventory also decreased this week, and the inland demand resilience exceeded expectations [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents figures related to methanol basis in different regions (e.g., methanol basis in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads (e.g., spreads between methanol 01, 05, and 09 futures contracts) [7][11][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, MTO profit in East China, and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [25][30][31] III. Methanol Operation, Inventory - The methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol operation rate (including integrated) are presented [33][34][36] IV. Regional Spreads - Regional spreads such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. are shown [38][46][48] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [44][53] 4. Strategy The recommended strategy is to cautiously go long for hedging [4]. 5. Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 410 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol is 710 yuan/ton (+8). Inner Mongolia North Line methanol price is 2005 yuan/ton (+8), with a basis of 62 yuan/ton (-19); Inner Mongolia South Line is 2030 yuan/ton (+30). Shandong Linyi is 2388 yuan/ton (+33), with a basis of 45 yuan/ton (+7); Henan is 2280 yuan/ton (+35), with a basis of - 63 yuan/ton (+9); Hebei is 2195 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 88 yuan/ton (-26) [1] - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 367,350 tons (-11,770), and the Northwest factory inventory is 237,000 tons (-100). The inland factory pending orders are 274,780 tons (-27,310), and the Northwest factory pending orders are 149,500 tons (-17,500) [1] Port - Taicang methanol is 2765 yuan/ton (+65), with a basis of 222 yuan/ton (+39), CFR China is 304 US dollars/ton (+6), and the East China import spread is 29 yuan/ton (+32). Changzhou methanol is 2545 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2640 yuan/ton (+70), with a basis of 97 yuan/ton (+44) [2] - Longzhong's total port inventory is 586,400 tons (-65,800), Jiangsu port inventory is 293,500 tons (-18,500), Zhejiang port inventory is 143,500 tons (-12,500), and Guangdong port inventory is 99,500 tons (-24,500). The downstream MTO operation rate is 88.54% (-0.02%) [2] Regional Spreads - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 25 yuan/ton (-8), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is 210 yuan/ton (+58), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is 128 yuan/ton (+33); Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 478 yuan/ton (-33); Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 305 yuan/ton (+5); East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is 225 yuan/ton (+65) [2]

【原料及现货】截至6月19日，杯胶48.30（+0.65）泰铢/千克，胶乳57.75（+0.25）泰铢/千克。云南胶 水收购价13300（0）元/吨，海南新鲜胶乳14100（+200）元/吨，全乳胶上海市场14000（0）元/吨，青 岛保税区泰标1710（-10）美元/吨，泰混13850（0）元/吨。 【轮胎开工率及库存】截至6月19日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为71.54%，环比+1.56个百分点， 同比-8.52个百分点。半钢胎企业产能利用率涨跌互现，部分企业为满足订单需求适度提产，另有个别 企业因电厂检修，生产暂停，限制周内样本企业产能利用率提升幅度。中国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率 为61.39%，环比+2.69个百分点，同比-0.45个百分点。上周检修的样本企业排产逐步恢复至常规水平， 带动全钢胎企业整体产能利用率走高。 1-5月，泰国出口混合胶合计为74.7万吨，同比增55%；混合胶出口到中国合计为74.2万吨，同比增 59%。 【逻辑】供应方面，下旬海外降雨有缓和预期，利于新胶出量，月底云南替代种植指标逐渐进入，对国 内供应明显施压。需求方面，6月中下旬轮胎终端市场处于逐步恢复阶段，然周期内物流 ...

2025年06月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：海内外供应偏紧，趋势走强，月差正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑，基差月差正套 | 2 | | MEG：伊朗多套装置停车，短期偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：地缘问题反复，偏强运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随原油高位震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：短期偏强 | 11 | | PP：现货上涨，成交一般 | 13 | | 烧碱：现货承压，趋势偏弱 | 14 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 16 | | 甲醇：偏强运行 | 18 | | 尿素：短期转为震荡格局 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | LPG：短期宽幅震荡 | 23 | | PVC：短期震荡，趋势仍有压力 | 26 | | 燃料油：跟随原油价格上涨，短期易涨难跌 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：价格重回强势，外盘现货高低硫价差继续反弹 | 28 | | 集运指数（欧线）：弱势震荡，10空单持有，08多单止损 | 29 | | 短纤：成本扰动延续，跟随上涨，波动率放大 | 32 | | 瓶片：成 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：PTA自身前期检修装置陆续重启，加之新装置投产，供需格局转弱，不过原油在中东地缘局势影响宽幅波动，预计短 期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡运行，基差方面，短期内现货市场货源偏紧，且部分聚酯工厂刚需补货，现货基差走强。关注 中东局势对油价的影响及聚酯负荷波动。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货上涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差回落。贸易商商谈为主。6月货主流在09+270成交，价格商谈 区间在5130~5250附近。7月中上在09+240~270有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+270。中性 2、基差：现货5175，09 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains bullish due to potential interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, despite recent fluctuations in price [5][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 19, gold opened at $3368.92 per ounce, reached a high of $3387.63, and closed at $3368.74, with a daily fluctuation of $40.03 [1]. - The market showed signs of support above the mid-line, indicating limited downside potential and a risk of upward movement [1][3]. - The gold price is expected to experience a period of adjustment but may rise again, supported by favorable fundamentals [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates but indicated two potential rate cuts this year, which supports a bullish outlook for gold [5]. - Recent U.S. CPI and retail data showed unexpected declines, raising concerns about economic slowdown and increasing deflation risks, which could lead to further rate cuts [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices have maintained support above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a continued bullish trend [7]. - Weekly charts show that despite recent pullbacks, gold remains above the 5-10 week moving average, indicating a potential for further upward movement [9]. - Daily charts reflect reduced bearish pressure, with multiple support levels suggesting a likelihood of bullish rebounds if prices retrace [10]. Group 4: Future Projections - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties are expected to sustain demand for gold, with projections suggesting prices could exceed $4000 per ounce within the next year [5]. - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with potential resistance levels at $3380 and $3391, and support levels at $3355 and $3325 [10].

Market Overview - On June 19, the market showed no significant negative news, but both stocks and bonds adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3400 points and the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.65% [2] - The stock market exhibited strong defensive characteristics during the adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI Dividend down by 0.79%, 0.82%, and 0.65% respectively [2] - The technology sector in China remained supported, with the STAR 50 index only declining by 0.54%, while the Hong Kong Hang Seng Technology index fell sharply by 2.42% [2] Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 1.64%, while the 30-year government bond yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 1.84% [2] - The trading of 50-year government bonds became active, with yields on new bonds declining by approximately 13 basis points since May 29, indicating a significant interest in long-duration bonds [6] - The market is exploring structural opportunities due to a lack of a main trend, with the 20-year and 50-year bonds becoming targets for yield spread extraction [6] International Influences - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 4.25-4.50% during the June meeting, with a more hawkish internal view, as the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year increased from 4 to 7 [3] - Following the Fed's decision, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose, although the adjustments were manageable, with neither yield breaking through 4.40% and 4.90% respectively [3] - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar has exerted pressure on precious metal prices, with gold prices entering a phase of fluctuation and decline, settling around 3370 USD per ounce [3] Domestic Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continued to provide support, with a net injection of 842 billion yuan through reverse repos, despite a slight increase in funding rates [4] - The current funding rates indicate a marginal increase, with overnight rates closing at 1.60-1.65% [4] - The market's liquidity situation is expected to stabilize, with the potential for further net injections from the PBOC [4] Equity Market Trends - The overall equity market experienced a significant decline, with the Wind All A index down by 1.20% and a trading volume of 1.28 trillion yuan, reflecting a 591 billion yuan increase from the previous day [7] - The decline in the market is attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, which has heightened risk aversion among investors [7][8] - Despite the overall downturn, there remains a focus on technology sectors, with robotics and semiconductor stocks showing temporary gains [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various asset classes that may withstand current global market pressures and geopolitical tensions, highlighting their potential for resilience and growth in uncertain times [2][3]. Group 1: Gold - Gold is characterized as a timeless safe-haven asset with a weak correlation to stocks and bonds, demonstrating strong risk-averse qualities during "black swan" events [6]. - Recent geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions have shifted market sentiment towards conservative and safe investments, increasing the appeal of gold [6]. - The investment logic for gold has evolved; previously, gold prices were inversely related to U.S. Treasury yields, but now, due to challenges to the "dollar hegemony," global demand for gold has surged, pushing prices higher [9]. - Investors are advised to adopt a strategic approach to gold investment, considering potential price corrections while gradually accumulating positions [9]. Group 2: Oil - Oil prices are influenced by supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and financial market conditions, making it a critical industrial commodity [11][12]. - Historical analysis shows that geopolitical conflicts tend to boost oil prices in the short term, especially when they affect major oil-producing countries or transportation routes [13]. - Long-term oil price trends will still depend on supply-demand balance, and a stabilization of geopolitical tensions could lead to price corrections [13]. Group 3: Military Industry - The military sector is seen as a direct beneficiary of geopolitical conflicts, with its investment logic evolving beyond traditional safe-haven assets to include event-driven and long-term growth potential [15]. - Key factors driving military industry investments include national defense being a non-cyclical expenditure, technological spillover into civilian sectors, and the reshaping of global dynamics due to U.S.-China competition [15][16]. - The military sector is characterized by high volatility, necessitating careful consideration of order fulfillment and valuation when investing [16]. Group 4: Equity Class - Dividend-paying stocks are positioned as stabilizers in volatile market conditions, offering steady cash flows and strong profitability [18]. - The article highlights Hong Kong dividend stocks as particularly attractive, providing a combination of stable performance and sustainable dividends [18]. - Dividend assets are suggested as a solid long-term investment option, balancing risk and return in uncertain market environments [20].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows a predominantly positive trend, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures experiencing fluctuations around 4500.00 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 4542.00 CNY and a low of 4486.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.30% [1] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran's production and export risks, are contributing to a strong international market, while domestic chemical demand is recovering, leading to increased import costs and potential profit margin pressures [1] - The overall market sentiment indicates a strong performance for LPG, with expectations of continued volatility and potential downward pressure if geopolitical risks ease [1] Group 2 - Recent oil price rebounds have positively influenced LPG prices, although domestic LPG production is slightly below last year's levels, and inventory levels have fluctuated, with port inventory decreasing after reaching high levels [2] - The demand side shows mixed signals, with gasoline consumption at a four-year low, while chemical demand is rebounding, particularly in PDH and MTBE production, although overall profitability remains constrained [2] - Market strategies suggest maintaining a small long position in LPG futures, with stop-loss levels adjusted to around 4150 CNY, as the market is expected to experience wide fluctuations [2]