2026年01月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供应回升，单边偏强，月差反套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | MEG：趋势仍偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行20260127 | 5 | | LLDPE：美金递盘暂少，上游报价挺涨 | 7 | | PP：C3原料表现偏强，利润暂修复有限 | 8 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260127 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 11 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 12 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 13 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 14 | | 丙烯：需求支撑坚挺，现货强势走高 | 14 | | 燃料油：夜盘低开，高波动态势延续 | 17 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差跌入年内低点 | 17 | | 短纤：短期趋势偏强20260127 | 18 | | 瓶片：短期趋势偏强20260127 | 18 | | 胶版印刷纸：观望为主 | 19 | | 纯苯：偏强震荡 | 21 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 ...

| 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需趋于双弱，煤价企稳小幅探涨 | 9 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 2026年01月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 27 日 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -10.5 | -1.32% | | | I260 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on January 26, 2026 - A-shares: The three major A-share indices closed down. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 4132.61, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.85% to 14316.64, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.91% to 3319.15. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 328.1 billion yuan, an increase of 16.27 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Stock Indices: The CSI 300 index fluctuated slightly, closing at 4706.96, up 4.47 [2]. - Futures: - Coke: The weighted index of coke fluctuated and closed at 1721.1, up 7.4 [2]. - Coking Coal: The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated slightly and closed at 1166.2 yuan, up 15.8 [3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract fluctuated slightly lower due to the decline of US sugar on Friday and stable spot prices. At night, it continued to decline slightly under short - selling pressure [4]. - Rubber: Shanghai rubber fluctuated and adjusted due to large short - term gains. At night, it continued to fluctuate and closed slightly lower [4]. - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean main contract closed at 1060 cents per bushel, down 0.7%. The domestic soybean meal main contract M2505 closed at 2768 yuan per ton, down 0.65% [5]. - Live Pigs: The live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11465 yuan per ton, down 0.86% [5]. - Palm Oil: The palm oil futures price continued to rise with increased positions, breaking through the 9000 integer mark. The main contract P2605 closed at 9092, up 2.04% [5]. - Shanghai Copper: The Shanghai copper closed at 101880 yuan per ton, with an opening price of 102800, a high of 103880, a low of 101760, and a settlement price of 102760 [5]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14580 yuan per ton at night, with an increase of 172 lots in inventory [5]. - Logs: The log 2603 main contract opened at 779.5, with a low of 773, a high of 779.5, and closed at 776, with a decrease of 1129 lots in positions [5]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore 2605 main contract fluctuated and closed down 0.95% at 784.5 yuan [7]. - Asphalt: The asphalt 2603 main contract fluctuated and rose 1.39% to close at 3279 yuan [7]. - Steel: The rb2605 closed at 3143 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3302 yuan per ton [7]. - Alumina: The ao2605 closed at 2732 yuan per ton [7]. - Shanghai Aluminum: The al2603 closed at 24215 yuan per ton [7]. 2. Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The expectation of the first - round price increase is strengthening, with wet - quenched coke expected to increase by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton. Iron production increased slightly, but the recovery was limited due to previous accidents [4]. - Coking Coal: Mines resumed production after the Spring Festival, and the output of sample mines rebounded, with the pre - holiday output expected to have peaked. Mongolian coal port transactions were average, and the port inventory exceeded 3.9 million tons. In 2025, China's total import of coking coal was 118 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. In December 2025, the import volume was 13.7698 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% but a year - on - year increase of 28.57%. In 2025, China's total export of coke was 794.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.53%. In December 2025, the export volume was 1.0045 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39.95% and a year - on - year increase of 80.18% [4]. Soybean Meal - International: The US soybean export sales reached a record high this year, but the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was lower than the five - year average, and the dry weather in southern Argentina raised concerns about crop conditions. - Domestic: The weekly soybean crushing volume of oil mills exceeded 2 million tons, increasing soybean meal output. Pre - holiday stocking demand started, but the soybean meal futures price lacked continuous upward momentum due to expected sufficient post - holiday soybean supply. It is recommended to track South American weather and soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - Supply: The slaughter rhythm of farmers accelerated. Although the monthly slaughter plan of group pig enterprises decreased, the actual slaughter level remained high, and many large - scale pig enterprises cut prices to sell. Some farmers may advance the February slaughter to January. - Demand: Southern pickling is coming to an end, reducing the demand for large pigs. Cold snap boosted pork consumption, and pre - holiday stocking started, but the medium - term supply pressure remains high. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the actual demand during the peak season [5]. Palm Oil - High - frequency data shows an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from January 1 - 25, 2026, compared to the same period last month, with an increase of 7.97% according to AmSpec and 9.97% according to ITS [5]. Shanghai Copper - Macro expectations are positive, and the low TC of the ore end and tight inventory support the cost. However, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs before the Spring Festival, and the consumption off - season restricts price elasticity. Speculative sentiment is restricted by a 10% margin and an 8% price limit [5]. Logs - The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [7]. Iron Ore - The shipments from Australia and Brazil and domestic arrivals decreased, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. Steel mills still have pre - holiday replenishment needs, and iron production increased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Asphalt - The overall refinery supply remains low, and the inventory accumulates slightly but is controllable. The demand is weak due to cold weather. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Steel - The fundamentals are stable, and the supply - demand balance and healthy inventory support the price. However, the winter storage policies of steel mills will affect market sentiment and speculative demand, causing short - term price fluctuations. The price of construction steel will be adjusted in the context of weakening terminal demand [7]. Alumina - The operating capacity remains high, but the low spot price deteriorates corporate profits. Some alumina plants in Guizhou may conduct pre - maintenance. The demand for alumina from the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited. The spot market has strong sales, with active morning trading and cautious afternoon trading [7]. Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum continues to increase, and the demand shows signs of stabilization. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has rebounded slightly, but the inventory continues to accumulate, and the demand for molten aluminum is still weak. The aluminum price is expected to consolidate in the short term [7].

成文日期：20260122 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:棕榈? 研究员：游镇齐（从业资格号：F3012673;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012990) 棕榈油期货日报 1 期货市场 棕榈油期货主力合约 P2605 收盘价 8,944 元/吨,较前一交易日 上涨 1.59%；开盘价 8,850 元/吨,最高价 8,964元/吨,最低价 8,850 元/吨，成交量 502,993 手，持仓量 467,244 手，成交额 448.37 亿元。 数据来源：wh6，国金期货 1: 棕榈油主力合约分时图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 前。 出口数据显著改善：1 月 1 日至 20 日，马来西亚棕榈油出口量 环比增长 8.64%–11.4%,出口回升反映印度、中国等主要进口国节 前备货需求增强、库存去化预期提升。 国内库存高位但边际缓和：截至 2026 年 1 月 21 日，全国棕榈 油商业库存为 77.60 万吨，较前一周微增 0.6 万吨，同比仍高出 31 万吨,但库存增速放缓,叠加进口成本倒挂收窄 ...

1 期货市场 当日，尿素主力合约窄幅震荡，收盘 1776 元/吨，微涨 0.23%，期现结构维持期货升水但基差小幅收敛，库存持续去化与 需求回暖提供支撑、短期或延续震荡整理。 图 1: 尿素 ur2605 分时图 成文日期：20260122 报告周期:日报 研究品种:尿素 研究分析师：武吟秋（从业资格号：F03087154;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018989) r | 数据来源： Wind 数据来源: Wind 2 影响因素 行业开工率 86.39%维持高位. 日产 20.51 万吨,供应充足;但 企业库存连续两周去化，94.60 万吨库存较上周减少 4.01 万吨，内 蒙古等区域受东北需求拉动出货加快。 复合肥开工率回升至 42.96%，三聚氰胺开工率 62.18%，工业 需求回暖；农业端冬腊肥与返青肥采购启动，淡储持续，支撑刚 龍。 山东、河南现货价格 1710-1740 元/吨，低于期货收盘价，部分 企业降价吸单后成交好转，但物流受雨雪天气影响局部受阻。 图 2：尿素 UR2605 日线 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:400682 ...

Group 1 - Domestic natural rubber price is 15,950 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous day; Thai 20 mixed rubber price is 15,150 CNY/ton, also down 50 CNY/ton [4][31] - Thai rubber water price reported at 57.7 THB/kg, up 0.1 THB/kg from the previous day; cup rubber price remains stable at 53.0 THB/kg [5][32] - As of January 25, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber is 584,500 tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons, or 0.07% [5][32] Group 2 - The global rubber market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply-demand balance to static pricing based on inventory levels as the Northern Hemisphere enters the low production season [5][32] - Despite a projected moderate growth in global tire and rubber product demand by 2026, growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5][32] - The rebound in rubber prices is not expected to exceed the levels seen in late July 2025 before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5][32] Group 3 - PX industry load in China decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 89.0%, while Asia's load increased by 0.4 percentage points to 81.0%, indicating a stable supply [6][33] - The PX supply-demand balance is expected to shift to a loose state in the first quarter due to numerous maintenance plans in downstream PTA facilities [6][33] - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 7,200-7,300 CNY [6][33] Group 4 - PTA industry load decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 76.6%, indicating a low level compared to historical data, with expected supply tightening due to maintenance plans [8][35] - The overall demand for PTA is weak, with a decline in new orders and a decrease in factory operating rates in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region [8][35] - PTA price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 5,200-5,300 CNY [8][35] Group 5 - The EG industry load decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 73.7%, with domestic supply remaining ample despite potential import reductions from North America and the Middle East [10][37] - The price of EG is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with a support range of 3,900-3,950 CNY [10][37] Group 6 - The PR industry load decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 66.4%, with ongoing maintenance expected to support processing fees [12][42] - The demand for PR is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery [12][42] - PR price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 6,100-6,200 CNY [12][42] Group 7 - The glass industry shows weak supply and demand, with inventory increasing by 10,000 tons to 266,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [18][45] - The glass production rate remains stable, but downstream purchasing activity is generally weak [18][45] - Glass prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a reference range of 1,060-1,100 CNY [18][46]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 7 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 聊聊纯碱期货上涨五大理由 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1. 宏观情绪回暖：央行宽松货币信号释放，稳增长预期升温，资金回流大宗商品，叠加玻璃等关联品种联动上 涨，带动纯碱期货多头情绪发酵。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 2. 成本支撑强化：煤炭等能源价格反弹推高纯碱生产成本，氨碱、联碱企业多处于亏损状态，天然碱成本线约 1100-1150元/吨，低价下企业挺价意愿增强，现货报价小幅上调，托底期货价格。 3. 供应短期扰动：部分企业临时检修，行业开工率阶段性波动，叠加春节前物流运力偏紧，主产区货源外运延 迟，销区短期流通性紧张，放大市场对供应的担忧。 4. 库存阶段性去化：截至1月22日厂 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Carbonate Lithium**: The current fundamentals of carbonate lithium remain strong. Despite being in the off - season for downstream demand, the weekly inventory data continues to show a de - stocking pattern, supporting the futures price. However, the price has large fluctuations as it reaches higher levels [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The morning's sharp rise in polysilicon futures was mainly affected by the macro - emotional aspect. With the implementation of production cuts by leading enterprises, a decline in production is expected in January. Factory inventories have increased, and the expected prices of manufacturers and downstream users are weakening [4][7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures are in an oscillating range. The demand side remains weak, and the key factor for future price movement is whether the production cut plans of large - scale manufacturers can be implemented [12]. 3. Summary by Category Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The futures price of carbonate lithium opened high and closed low today. The main 2605 contract fell 8.73% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 165,680 yuan/ton [1]. - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, the supply side has unexpectedly contracted. The resumption of production of 8 lithium - mining enterprises in Yichun, Jiangxi has been repeatedly delayed, and lithium salt plants have regular annual maintenance. Even in the off - season, the inventory is decreasing, supporting the futures price [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: It is currently controlled by bulls, with a significant decrease in intraday positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract shows a green line, green band, and green ladder, while the overnight 2 - hour cycle has a strong red ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 147,260 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Maintain the strategy of buying on dips. Due to the large price fluctuations, operate with caution. Use the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" to find entry points, and follow the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for specific operations [1]. - **Concerns**: Regulatory upgrades, the resumption progress of Jiaxiawo, and the production scheduling of the demand side [2] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures oscillated today. The main 2605 contract rose 1.10% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 51,280 yuan/ton [4]. - **Core Logic**: The morning's sharp rise was due to the macro - emotional aspect as domestic commodities generally rose. Leading polysilicon enterprises have implemented production cuts, and it is expected that the output in January will drop to around 90,000 tons. The increase in downstream component output is limited, and the factory inventory has increased this week [4][7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, blue band, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle has a strong red ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 48,885 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It may oscillate weakly [8]. - **Concerns**: The latest quotes of silicon material enterprises to downstream users [9] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures oscillated today. The 2605 contract rose 1.08% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,915 yuan/ton [12]. - **Core Logic**: It is currently in the oscillating range of (8,500 - 9,100). The demand side remains weak. If the production cut plan of Hesheng Silicon Industry is implemented, it will have a large impact on the short - term supply side [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: It is controlled by bulls, with a significant increase in today's positions. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract shows a green line, red band, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle has a strong red ladder line. The long - short dividing water level is 8,650 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short - term, focus on whether the production cut plan is implemented. Operate after breaking through the range and observe within the range. Refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live - broadcast for intraday operations [12]. - **Concerns**: Whether the production cut plans of large - scale manufacturers can be implemented [13]

每经AI快讯，1月26日，钯金期货日内涨6%，现报2150.00美元/盎司。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The glass market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply side has an expectation of further contraction, but the real - estate demand has not improved. Pay attention to the trend near the pressure level and subsequent macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened high and moved higher, with an intraday volatile and strong trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a tightening signal for short - term fluctuations. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average of the daily line, and the support is near the middle track line. The trading volume increased by 322,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 84,061 lots. The intraday high was 1092, the low was 1059, and the closing price was 1087, up 26 yuan/ton or 2.45% compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: In North China, manufacturers' overall shipments are good due to mid - stream pick - up and pre - holiday stocking; in East China, the trading atmosphere has significantly slowed down, with weak purchasing enthusiasm and a strong wait - and - see atmosphere; in Central China, the situation is okay, with most prices raised by 40, and downstream purchases are rational; in South China, except for individual prices rising by 20, other enterprises remain stable [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China is 1010, and the basis is - 77 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0552 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The industry average start - up rate was 71.62%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.34%. There was no production line water - release or ignition this week, and the daily output remained stable [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.216 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 203,000 heavy boxes or 0.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 day compared with the previous period. This week, the downstream purchasing sentiment was average, and individual shipments were weak due to weather, resulting in an overall increase in inventory compared with the previous period [2] - **Demand**: The average number of order days for national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the deep - processing order trends in the north and south regions are differentiated. The executable days of orders in the south have slightly increased, and some orders can last for more than 20 days; the orders in the north and central regions have declined [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 3.9 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still some production line cold - repair plans before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to further contract. However, the real - estate development investment and capital availability this month have continued to decline year - on - year, and the completion and new construction are weak, with the real - estate demand still not improving. Overall, the real - estate data continues to decline, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken near the end of the month. A production line in Gansu was restarted and ignited today, and the anti - involution voice emerged again last week, with the sentiment strengthening and the market rebounding. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. First, pay attention to the trend near the pressure level. Subsequently, pay attention to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]