Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Sugar: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Timber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - 20 - number rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias but limited operability on the market [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, cost, and inventory factors [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton showed a volatile trend today, and the basis of cotton spot sales remained stable. The cost of new cotton provides some support to the futures price, but there is hedging pressure for significant price increases. As of November 6, the cumulative national cotton processing was 319.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.5 million tons. The cotton yarn market changed little, with demand remaining stable. The improvement in Sino - US relations also supports cotton prices. Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar was weak. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increased sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss in sugar production, and sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weak. There are rumors of syrup import control, which provides some support. The market is focusing on the next season's production estimate. Based on remote sensing data, the sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price rebounded. In the Shandong apple production area, the apple acquisition is nearing the end. The price of high - quality apples remained stable, while the price of general and semi - first - grade apples declined slightly. As of November 6, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 682.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. The market trading logic has shifted to sales expectations. Due to the high acquisition price and the reluctance of traders and farmers to sell, the de - stocking speed may be affected. Apple prices are high, and there may be inventory pressure later. An overall bearish approach is recommended [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - number rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all rose. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber spot price rose slightly. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, but the Yunnan production area in China has entered the low - yield period. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate increased slightly last week. The domestic tire operating rate continued to rise slightly, and the inventory of Shandong tire enterprises increased. Rubber inventories increased, and cost support was weak. The market sentiment improved. An oversold rebound strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR and BR [6] Pulp - Today, the pulp futures continued to rise, and the spot prices followed suit. As of November 6, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 200.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.3 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6%. Overseas阔叶浆 quotes are strong, and some traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, but downstream procurement willingness is average. The pulp valuation is still low, with medium - to - long - term improvement expectations. Recently, the willingness of funds to push up prices is strong. Buying on dips is recommended [7] Logs - The futures price was weak. The spot price in Taicang Port decreased by 10 yuan. In November, the price of New Zealand radiata pine continued to rise, and domestic traders' import willingness declined. The external quote is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to improve. The demand from port shipments is above 60,000 cubic meters, which supports prices. The log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Operationally, it is advisable to wait and see [8]

Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (bean No. 1): ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Soybean oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Palm oil: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bearish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Soybean meal: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Rapeseed oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Rapeseed meal: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Corn: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Live pigs: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Views - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends, affected by factors such as policies, trade negotiations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors. Investors should pay attention to relevant information and changes in the market to find potential investment opportunities and avoid risks [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean (bean No. 1) - The price of soybean No. 1 shows high - level fluctuations. The resumption of soybean auction by CGSCO has cooled market sentiment. The purchase of high - protein soybeans has price advantages. The warehouse receipts of domestic soybeans are increasing, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is consolidating. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of soybean meal futures M2601 fluctuates strongly. After the Sino - US trade negotiation eases, the price of US soybeans is in a wide - range shock. The domestic soybean crushing volume in October was about 8.6 million tons, and it is expected to be about 8.7 million tons in November. The soybean meal inventory has rebounded slightly. The import cost has increased, and the crushing profit has been repaired. It is expected that the soybean supply will be basically sufficient in the fourth quarter, and there may be inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal rebounds from a low level. The domestic soybean crushing volume decreased last week, and the soybean oil inventory decreased. The crushing profit of near - month shipment of soybeans is not good. Soybean oil is stronger than palm oil, and the domestic palm oil inventory has increased slightly. The MPOB report in November is bearish. The high - frequency data in early November shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia increased from November 1 - 5, and the export demand declined from November 1 - 10. Short - term attention should be paid to the high - inventory pressure of palm oil [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The positions and trading volumes of domestic rapeseed futures' main contracts have decreased. It is a pattern of strong oil and weak meal today. The price increase of rapeseed meal is mainly due to the increase in overseas oilseed prices and the improvement of import expectations. The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be poor. The inventories of rapeseed meal and granulated powder are slowly decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory has declined more than expected. The short - term strategy for domestic rapeseed products is to wait and see [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures continue to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. The new corn in the Northeast has a small increase in volume, and the price is slightly stronger. The on - site volume of Shandong has decreased, and the spot price is strong. The import of US corn still has no price advantage. The new corn in the Northeast will continue to be listed, and the 01 contract of Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs is consolidating. The futures price has rebounded after reaching the bottom. The technical chart shows that the downward momentum is insufficient. The overall slaughter rhythm may slow down, and the seasonal demand is increasing. The pig price may enter a seasonal rebound stage. In the long - term, the pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The near - month contracts of egg futures led the rise before, but the spot sentiment weakened over the weekend, and the near - month contracts led the decline on Monday. The follow - up trading idea can be to try shorting on rallies. The industry's production capacity is still at a high level, and the sentiment of culling is increasing marginally. Attention should be paid to the performance of egg spot and vegetable prices [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the I2601 contract first declined and then rebounded. The US government was "shut down" for 40 days, and the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased simultaneously this period, but the domestic port inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks; the molten iron output continued to decline, weakening the demand support. However, the positive macro - situation provided some support for the current weak market. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running at a low level. For operation, short - term trading is recommended with attention to risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 765.00 yuan/ton, up 4.50 yuan; the position volume was 541,602 lots, down 17,806 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread was 23 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 33,799 lots, up 1,644 lots. The DCE warehouse receipts were 800.00 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 102.15 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 0.88 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 834 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 765 yuan/dry ton, down 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 69 yuan, down 7 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 102.05 US dollars/ton, down 2.65 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.20, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 832 yuan/ton. The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 3,069.00 tons, down 144.80 tons; the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports (weekly) were 2,769.30 tons, down 544.80 tons [2] Industry Situation - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,624.13 tons, up 351.20 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,009.94 tons, up 160.08 tons. The iron ore imports (monthly) were 11,130.90 tons, down 502.10 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, unchanged. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.99 tons, down 0.36 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 62.96%, down 1.01%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 41.83 tons, down 5.92 tons. The BDI index was 2,104.00, up 41.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.42 US dollars/ton, down 0.01 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.365 US dollars/ton, down 0.19 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.15%, up 1.42%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 87.79%, down 0.80%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 tons, down 388 tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.56%, down 0.46%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.41%, up 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 15.95%, down 1.44%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 16.77%, up 0.96% [2] Industry News - From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the global iron ore shipments were 3,069.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144.8 tons. The total shipments of Australian and Brazilian iron ore were 2,548.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210.6 tons. From November 3rd to November 9th, 2025, the arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2,769.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 544.8 tons; the arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 2,741.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 477.2 tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 1,525.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60.1 tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the domestic corn market showed a "rising first, then falling" oscillating trend. At the beginning of the month, due to continuous rainy weather, the harvest and listing progress of new - season corn was slower than expected, with tight market supply supporting the price. In the middle and late - month, as the weather cleared, the supply pressure emerged as new grain volume increased and downstream demand was cautious. The overall price center shifted down compared to September [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price Analysis - The opening price of the corn futures c2601 contract in October was 2,118 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 2,152 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,094 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the closing price was 2,130 yuan/ton, the same as the previous month's closing price. The position was 931,100 lots, and the trading volume was 7,567,700 lots [4]. 1.2 Variety Market Analysis - In the monthly corn futures market, prices rose more than they fell. The total position was 1,772,414 lots, and the trading volume was 13,721,901 lots [8]. 1.3 Associated Market Analysis - In October, the trading volume of corn options was 2,203,616 lots, the total position was 233,188 lots, with a decrease of 130,217 lots. The total number of exercises in the month was 57,481 [10]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - The basis in domestic corn - producing areas first strengthened and then weakened. In the first half - month, continuous rainy weather led to tight spot supply and a strong spot price, while the futures price was relatively weak. In the second half - month, as the weather cleared, new grain volume increased, the spot price fell, and the basis narrowed [11]. 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of corn futures warehouse receipts first remained stable and then increased, but the overall level was at a historical low. The low level in October supported the futures market, but the end - of - month increase indicated that spot pressure was being transmitted to the futures market [12]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry Information - The National Bureau of Statistics and relevant institutions released the 2025/26 corn production forecast. Concerns about new - grain quality emerged due to rainy weather. Relevant institutions such as Sinograin signaled to enter the market for purchases. Imported grains continued to arrive at ports, affecting domestic prices. Market attention focused on the start - up of drying towers and farmers' selling attitudes, and logistics costs affected the grain circulation pattern [13][14]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The corn futures c2601 contract showed a "bottom - hunting and rebounding" trend. After the National Day, the price fell to a new low due to supply pressure. In the middle and late - month, it bottomed out and rebounded as it fell below the planting cost and with policy support. The MACD indicator showed declining downward momentum and accumulating upward momentum [15]. 4. Market Outlook - Northeast and North China are about to enter the peak period of new - season corn listing. Farmers' selling willingness will be the key to the spot price. Downstream demand is weak, and it's difficult to drive price increases independently. In the short - term, the price of the corn C2601 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom out, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range. Future attention should be paid to farmers' selling attitudes, policy - based purchases, and the impact of weather on logistics [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, with short - term price range - bound. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward potential; if not, prices are expected to range between 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and short - term rebounds should be treated as opportunities to go short. For glass, short - term long opportunities can be seized on dips, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem [3]. Methanol - The methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. Before Iranian gas restrictions, the weak reality will continue to be priced in [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but November's supply - demand is expected to be loose. PTA is expected to be in a tight - balance in the short - term but loose in the medium - term. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to expected high inventory accumulation. Short - fiber and bottle - chip markets also face supply - demand challenges [8]. Polyolefins - Polypropylene and polyethylene both show increasing supply and demand, but the market still faces pressure from new capacity and supply increases [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to increased supply and weak demand. PVC is in an over - supply situation, and prices are expected to continue to be weak [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Styrene supply - demand may be in a tight - balance, but cost support is insufficient [14]. Summary by Directory Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai rose 200 yuan/ton to 14,550 yuan/ton, with a 1.39% increase. The whole - latex basis increased by 250 yuan/ton to - 445 yuan/ton, a 35.97% rise [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton, a 17.86% decline [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 260,000 tons to 4.515 million tons, a 5.45% drop. China's production increased by 86,000 tons to 1.223 million tons [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded area inventory increased by 15,439 tons to 447,668 tons, a 3.57% increase [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: Glass 2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,091 yuan/ton, a 0.91% decline [3]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: Soda Ash 2605 increased by 1 yuan/ton to 1,294 yuan/ton, a 0.08% increase [3]. - **Production Volumes**: Soda ash well - working rate decreased by 1.72% to 86.89% [3]. - **Inventory**: Soda ash factory inventory increased by 42,000 tons to 1.702 million tons, a 2.54% increase [3]. Methanol - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2,112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decline [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.04% to 38.641% [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.41% to 76.09% [6]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (January) rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 63.63 dollars/barrel, a 0.4% increase [8]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX was 698 dollars/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **PTA - Related Prices and Spreads**: PTA East - China spot price rose 35 yuan/ton to 4,575 yuan/ton, a 0.8% increase [8]. - **MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations**: MEG port inventory increased by 7.5% to 56.2 million tons [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2601 closed at 6,802 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline [11]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 17.84% to 49.0 million tons [11]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.13% to 82.6% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: SH2601 decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2,331 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decline [13]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 3.3% to 88.3% [13]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry operating rate decreased by 0.3% to 82.2% [13]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory increased by 18.9% to 22.3 million tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: CFR China pure benzene was 664 dollars/ton, up 0.2% [14]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, with supply pressure rising [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: Caprolactam operating rate remained unchanged at 86.1% [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral trend is moderately strong in the medium term [1] - PTA: Supply pressure persists, high - level volatile market, backwardation in calendar spreads [1] - MEG: Supply pressure remains high, trend is weak [1] Core Views - PX: The unilateral trend is strong. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/MEG. Despite the restart of some devices and the high operating rate, the cost support and demand factors make the unilateral strong pattern clear [5]. - PTA: With positive demand feedback and cost support, it should be regarded as unilaterally strong. Although the inventory accumulation in November narrows, the supply is still in excess after some device overhauls end, and the processing fee may continue to be under pressure [6]. - MEG: It is short - term oscillating weakly. The supply pressure persists, and it is recommended to maintain the backwardation operation in calendar spreads. Although the supply pressure eases slightly in the short term, it remains in the long term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - A 300,000 - ton/year polyester bottle - chip device in the southwest has been shut down for maintenance since early November, with a total of 600,000 tons of production shut down at the factory [3]. - The price increase in the previous trading day was mainly driven by increased stock market activity. The sudden increase in market activity may be due to the entry of external funds [3]. - The PX market is currently quite stable fundamentally, and there is no obvious weakness in the short term. The main support for PX comes from China's higher PTA production capacity, especially from new factories launched this year [3]. - Formosa Chemicals & Fiber Corp. restarted its 720,000 - ton/year PX production line in Mailiao on November 4 after completing the planned turnaround, and has been operating at about 70% capacity since then. A 350,000 - ton/year production line has been shut down since early April for planned turnaround [5]. Futures Price and Spread Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6780 | - 40 | - 0.59% | | PTA Main | 4664 | - 24 | - 0.51% | | MEG Main | 3942 | 18 | 0.46% | | PF Main | 6214 | - 30 | - 0.48% | | SC Main | 460.6 | 0.2 | 0.04% | | Calendar Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX1 - 5 | 0 | 14 | - 14 | | PTA1 - 5 | - 64 | - 62 | - 2 | | MEG1 - 5 | - 77 | - 80 | 3 | | PF12 - 1 | - 38 | - 34 | - 4 | | SC11 - 12 | 0.9 | 1 | - 0.1 | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 825.67 | 826 | - 0.33 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 4572 | 4540 | 32 | | MEG Spot | 4013 | 3978 | 35 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 581.75 | 575.75 | 6 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 63.61 | 63.66 | - 0.05 | | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 250.25 | 238.5 | 11.75 | | PTA Processing Fee | 120.65 | 141.93 | - 21.29 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 259.02 | 267.68 | - 8.66 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 54.06 | 99.6 | - 45.54 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 4.34 | - 4.34 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - PTA trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - MEG trend intensity: - 1 (weakly bearish) [5] Supply and Demand Analysis PX - Supply: Fushun Petrochemical and Formosa Plastics' devices restarted, and the domestic and Asian PX operating rates reached new highs. Yulong Petrochemical was sanctioned, resulting in weak MX prices. Although the short - process profit is strong, the operating rate has not actually recovered [5]. - Demand: Some PTA devices were shut down or had reduced loads, and the PTA load declined. The stock prices of polyester leaders rose sharply, but the actual probability of production reduction is low [5]. PTA - Supply: Some factories without supporting facilities reduced their loads, and the inventory accumulation in November narrowed. After the overhaul of some devices such as Xin凤鸣 ended, the supply was still in excess [6]. - Demand: The polyester load remained high (91.5% in November), and the rigid demand for PTA was acceptable [6]. MEG - Supply: The overall operating rate of MEG declined this week, with multiple devices shut down or reducing loads. However, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 800,000 - ton device is about to restart, and the long - term supply pressure remains due to concentrated imports [6]. - Demand: Downstream weaving orders weakened locally, and the operating rate declined. However, the polyester load remained high in the short term, providing some demand support [6]. Valuation and Strategy - PX: The PXN spread has risen to a high level, and producers can hedge at high prices. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/MEG [5]. - PTA: The processing fee of the 01 contract has reached a new low of 219 Yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee is 173 Yuan/ton. The processing fee may continue to be under pressure [6]. - MEG: It is recommended to maintain the backwardation operation in calendar spreads [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The pig market has high supply pressure in the short - term, with prices having limited upward movement. In the long - term, prices in the first half of next year are under pressure, while those in the second half are relatively strong due to expected capacity reduction [4][48]. - The egg market shows a marginal improvement in the short - term supply - demand situation, but the ample supply restricts price increases. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease as the inventory growth rate slows down [5][69]. - The corn market is in a phase of shock bottom - building during the new crop listing period. Short - term prices are expected to be weak, while in the long - term, there is strong cost support [6][88]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 7, the national spot price was 11.82 yuan/kg, down 0.67 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.04 yuan/kg, down 0.51 yuan/kg. The futures price of Live Pig 2501 closed at 11,865 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of the 01 contract was 175 yuan/ton, down 560 yuan/ton from last week [4][11][48]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The average weekly slaughter weight was 128.3 kg, up 0.61 kg from last week. The proportion of small and large pigs in the weekly slaughter increased. The fat - standard price difference was 0.68 yuan, down 0.06 yuan from last week. The frozen product inventory rate was 20.03%, up 0.04% from last week [4][12][48]. - Demand - related data: The average daily weekly slaughter rate was 33.47%, down 1.36% from last week. The average daily weekly slaughter volume was 138,532 heads, down 5,604 heads from last week. The fresh - sales rate was 86.27%, up 0.23% from last week [4][12][48]. - Cost - related data: The national average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets was 202.62 yuan/head, up 19.76 yuan/head from last week. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 34.91 yuan/head, down 10.21 yuan/head from last week. The profit from purchasing piglets was - 116.92 yuan/head, up 12.58 yuan/head from last week [4][12][48]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows decreased slowly. In September 2025, the official sow inventory was 40.35 million heads, down 0.07% month - on - month and 0.66% year - on - year. My Agri's sample in October showed an increase, while Yongyi's sample showed a decrease [20][48]. - The production performance improved. In October, the ratio of binary to ternary breeding sows was 95%:5%. The farrowing rate of inseminated sows was 79.7%, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.32 [20]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. Pay attention to the rhythm of secondary fattening and group enterprise slaughter. In the long - term, prices in the first half of next year are under pressure, while those in the second half are relatively strong. Hold existing short positions in contracts 01, 03, and 05, and continue to pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage. Be cautious about bottom - fishing in contracts 07 and 09 [4][48]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 7, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.03 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. The futures price of Egg 2512 closed at 3,219 yuan/500 kg, up 73 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 419 yuan/500 kg, weakening by 3 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][54][69]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The national weekly utilization rate of egg - laying hen hatching eggs was 57%. The average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 2.80 yuan/chick. The average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 4.03 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from last week [5][55][69]. - Demand - related data: The egg shipment volume was 6,300.06 tons, up 252.77 tons week - on - week. The sales volume in the sample sales areas was 7,300 tons, down 358 tons week - on - week [5][55][69]. - Profit - related data: The expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 24.44 yuan/hen, up 1.66 yuan/hen from last week. The profit per jin of eggs was - 0.25 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from last week [5][55][69]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of laying hens decreased slightly in October 2025, with 1.359 billion hens in production, down 0.09 billion month - on - month and up 0.72 billion year - on - year [5][69]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation has a marginal improvement, and egg prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. In the long - term, the supply pressure will gradually ease. Short the main 12 - contract lightly when the price is high, and expect the 01 - contract to oscillate within the range of 3,250 - 3,450 [5][69]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Weekly Market Review - As of November 7, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,160 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of Corn 2601 closed at 2,149 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 11 yuan/ton, strengthening by 11 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][73][88]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The inventory of old - crop corn among traders in production and sales areas was low. The new - crop supply in the Northeast was increasing. In September, corn imports were 60,000 tons, up 50% month - on - month and down 80.6% year - on - year [6][75][88]. - Demand - related data: The feed demand increased due to the growth of pig and poultry inventories, but the high price difference between corn and wheat led to wheat replacing corn in feed use. The deep - processing industry's profit turned positive, but the capacity utilization rate was still low [6][75][88]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The national grain - selling progress was 22% as of November 7, 3% faster than the same period last year. The progress in North China was 20%, 1% faster than the same period last year, and that in Northeast China was 18%, 3% faster than the same period last year [6][76][88]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary and Strategy Suggestions - In the short - term, corn prices will be under pressure due to the concentrated listing of new crops. In the long - term, there is strong cost support. The main 01 - contract will oscillate within the range of 2,050 - 2,170 [6][88].

短纤：今日短纤期货跟随原料震荡偏强，现货方面工厂部分维稳，部分上调，贸易商优惠普遍减小。今 日直纺涤短销售大多疲软，个别尚可，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 48%，部分工厂产销：60%、20%、30%、 30%、100%、20%、100%、0%、40%，50%。 瓶片：上游原料期货震荡为主，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多稳，局部上调 20-50 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场交投 气氛一般，不同品牌价格高低差距较大。11-1 月订单多成交在 5670-5700 元/吨出厂不等，少量略低 5630-5640 元/吨出厂附近，略高 5780-5830 元/吨出厂不等。 2025 年 11 月 10 日 国 泰 君 安 期 短纤：旺季需求持续，震荡偏强 瓶片：上游支撑，震荡市 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it offers short - term trend outlooks for various commodities in the black series: - **High - level Repeated**: Iron ore, coke, and coking coal [2] - **Wide - range Fluctuations**: Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese [2] - **Oscillatory Repeated**: Logs [2] 2. Core Views The report presents the latest market data and news for different commodities in the black series, including futures and spot prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price spreads. It also provides a short - term trend outlook for each commodity, with a trend strength index ranging from - 2 to 2, where all commodities in this report have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral view. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Futures Price**: The closing price of the iron ore futures contract was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 17.0 yuan/ton (-2.19%) [4]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ore prices decreased, while domestic ore prices remained stable. The price of lump ore (65%) dropped by 14.0 yuan/ton to 878.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Price Spread**: The basis and some inter - contract spreads changed slightly [4]. - **News**: In October 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.2% year - on - year [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Futures Price**: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures contract was 3,034 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.20%); the HC2601 hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,245 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.34%) [7]. - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in some regions increased slightly, while hot - rolled coil prices decreased slightly [7]. - **Price Spread**: The basis and some inter - contract spreads changed [7]. - **News**: In October 2025, China imported 50.3 million tons of steel, a decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%) from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative steel imports decreased by 11.9% year - on - year. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data also showed changes [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Futures Price**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures contracts decreased. For example, the closing price of the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was 5526 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [11]. - **Spot Price**: The price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton, and the price of silicomanganese was 5620 yuan/ton. The price of semi - coke increased by 60 yuan/ton to 820 yuan/ton [11]. - **Price Spread**: The basis, inter - contract spreads, and cross - commodity spreads changed [11]. - **News**: The starting price of lump coal for semi - coke raw materials increased, and the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in some regions were reported. The inventory of manganese ore in ports changed, and the quotes of manganese ore suppliers for December increased [11][12][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Futures Price**: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1270 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan/ton (-1.6%); the J2601 coke futures contract closed at 1756.5 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.1%) [14]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of most coking coal and coke varieties remained stable, with a few showing small changes. For example, the arrival price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1545 yuan/ton [14]. - **Price Spread**: The basis and inter - contract spreads changed [14]. - **News**: In October 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.2% year - on - year [15]. Logs - **Futures Price**: The prices of different log futures contracts showed small fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 778.5 yuan, down 0.1% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of most contracts decreased, while the positions of some contracts increased slightly [17]. - **Price Spread**: The basis and inter - contract spreads changed [17]. - **News**: Starting from November 10, 2025, China will resume importing logs from the United States [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Medium to long - term optimistic, buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound [1][5] - Coking coal: Range trading [1] - Rebar: Range trading [1] - Glass: Sell call options [1][9] - Copper: Exit long positions at high levels or range - bound short - term trading [1][12] - Aluminum: Suggest buying on dips [1] - Nickel: Suggest waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies [1][18] - Tin: Range trading [1][19] - Gold: Range trading [1][20] - Silver: Range trading [1][20] - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 4700 level pressure for 01 contract [22][23] - Caustic soda: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 2400 level pressure for 01 contract [24] - Soda ash: Bearish for 01 contract [1][34] - Styrene: Range - bound with a weak bias, focus on the 6500 level pressure [26][27] - Rubber: Range - bound, focus on the 15000 level support [27][28] - Urea: Range - bound [29] - Methanol: Range - bound [30][32] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound, L2601 focus on 6900 support, PP2601 focus on 6600 support [32][33] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound [37] - PTA: Low - level range - bound, focus on the 4400 - 4700 range [37][38] - Apples: Weakly range - bound [1][38] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound [1][38] - Hogs: Rebound under pressure [1][40] - Eggs: Rebound under pressure [1][41] - Corn: Bottom - building in a range [44][46] - Soybean meal: Rebound from low levels [1][46] - Oils: Palm oil weak, soybean oil strong, high - level adjustment [47][52] Core Views - The market is in a vacuum period of performance, events, and policies after the Sino - US trade negotiations, third - quarter reports, and the Fourth Plenary Session. The stock index and bond market may enter a range - bound stage. The black building materials market has a tight supply - demand pattern and rising prices. The non - ferrous metals market is affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and policies, with different trends for each metal. The energy and chemical market is generally under pressure due to factors like high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. The cotton - spinning and agricultural livestock markets also show different trends based on supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [5][8][12] Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Index: In a range - bound stage, waiting for new changes at the end of the year. Consider the rotation of technology mainlines and the impact of inflation recovery. Medium to long - term optimistic, buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: In a stage without a clear core logic. Focus on the entry of allocation funds and the central bank's actions. Range - bound [5] Black building materials - Double - coking coal: Market shows tight supply - demand and rising prices. Range - bound [7][8] - Rebar: Low - valuation, with limited downside space. Range - bound, consider buying on dips for RB2601 at 2975 - 3000 [8] - Glass: Supply decreases, but demand is weak. Suggest selling call options for 01 contract [9][10] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: High - level range - bound. Supply is tight, but high prices suppress demand. Consider exiting long positions at high levels or range - bound short - term trading [12][13] - Aluminum: High - level range - bound. Supply and demand are both affected by multiple factors. Suggest waiting and seeing [13][15] - Nickel: Range - bound. Supply may be loose, and demand is weak. Suggest waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies [18] - Tin: Range - bound. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. Focus on the 27 - 29.5 million yuan/ton range for the 12 - contract [19][20] - Gold and silver: Range - bound. Affected by factors such as the US government shutdown, employment, and interest - rate expectations. Focus on the specified contract ranges [20][21] Energy and chemical - PVC: Range - bound with a weak bias. High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. Focus on the 4700 level pressure for 01 contract [22][23] - Caustic soda: Range - bound with a weak bias. Affected by alumina inventory and supply. Focus on the 2400 level pressure for 01 contract [24][26] - Soda ash: Bearish for 01 contract. Supply is excessive, and demand is weak [34][36] - Styrene: Range - bound with a weak bias. Affected by factors such as oil prices and supply - demand. Focus on the 6500 level pressure [26][27] - Rubber: Range - bound. Supply decreases seasonally, and demand is stable. Focus on the 15000 level support [27][28] - Urea: Range - bound. Supply decreases, and demand increases. Focus on the 1600 - 1700 range for 01 contract [29] - Methanol: Range - bound. Supply is tight in some areas, and demand is weak. Focus on the 2000 - 2330 range for 01 contract [30][32] - Polyolefins: Weakly range - bound. Supply pressure increases, and demand is weak. L2601 focus on 6900 support, PP2601 focus on 6600 support [32][33] Cotton - spinning - Cotton and cotton yarn: Range - bound. Affected by global supply - demand and Sino - US trade negotiations [37] - PTA: Low - level range - bound. Affected by oil prices and supply - demand. Focus on the 4400 - 4700 range [37][38] - Apples: Weakly range - bound. New - season trading is in the later stage, and demand is weak [38] - Jujubes: Weakly range - bound. Procurement is inactive, and prices are weak [38] Agricultural livestock - Hogs: Rebound under pressure. Supply is high in the short - term, and capacity reduction is slow in the long - term. Different strategies for different contracts [40] - Eggs: Rebound under pressure. Supply is high in the long - term, and demand is weak. Different strategies for different contracts [41][43] - Corn: Bottom - building in a range. Supply is sufficient in the short - term, and demand is weak. Focus on the 2050 - 2170 range for 01 contract [44][46] - Soybean meal: Rebound from low levels. Affected by US soybean supply - demand and domestic压榨 profit. Consider relevant strategies [46] - Oils: Palm oil weak, soybean oil strong, high - level adjustment. Affected by factors such as supply - demand and policies. Focus on support levels and consider arbitrage strategies [47][52]