化工日报 | 2025-12-26 EG供应回升下仍承压 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3818元/吨（较前一交易日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%），EG华东市场现货价 3635元/吨（较前一交易日变动+37元/吨，幅度+1.03%），EG华东现货基差-8元/吨（环比+5元/吨）. 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-94美元/吨（环比+16美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-949 元/吨（环比+97元/吨）。 风险 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副 港到港量3万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数11.8万吨，副港到港量2.7万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡略 累。 原油价格波动，煤价大幅波动，宏观政策超预期，EG装置变动超预期 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，随着合成气制装置重启，国内乙二醇负荷再度回升至7成以上，1~2月高供应和需 求转弱下累库压力仍大，合计在50万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve but still maintain an inventory accumulation pattern. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news, and there may be upside potential if there are relevant policies. For polysilicon, manufacturers' production cuts and positive policies support prices, and the consumer end is boosted, with the price expected to fluctuate upwards [3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8820 yuan/ton and closed at 8835 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.28%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 216554 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 24, 2025, was 9259 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Supply**: The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat. As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.3 tons, down 1.43% from the previous week [1] - **Consumption**: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton. The weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable, and the expected output in December was around 11.4 tons, with limited change in demand for industrial silicon. The weekly production schedule of silicone fluctuated slightly, with a possible reduction of about 5000 tons in December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable, and the demand in the aluminum alloy downstream weakened marginally [2] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 57780 yuan/ton and closing at 60760 yuan/ton, up 4.80% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 132126 lots, and the trading volume was 124231 lots [4] - **Spot**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory decreased. The weekly output of polysilicon was 25000.00 tons, up 1.20% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer output was 10.67GW, down 12.18% week - on - week [4] - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component**: The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were basically stable, with only slight changes in some products [4][5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range - bound operation [3] - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options operations [3][4] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range - bound operation, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [6] - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options operations [6]

1. Report's Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The 2025/26 global cotton production and demand are both decreasing, with a slight increase in ending stocks. The US cotton production is slightly increasing, and the northern hemisphere's new cotton supply pressure is high. The global textile consumption is still weak. The domestic cotton production continues to increase, with sufficient short - term supply. The demand is improving with the approaching festivals. Considering the expected reduction in cotton planting and production in Xinjiang in 2026, the cotton price is expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure [2][3]. - Sugar: The 2025/26 global sugar market is in a definite surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the medium - term high production will suppress the price. The domestic sugar is expected to increase for the third year, with increasing supply and import pressure [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. The European demand has improved, while the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, but the port inventory is declining. With the expansion of downstream paper production capacity, the pulp price may gradually stabilize [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,255 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.53%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,086 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,279 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton. The Pakistani cotton market trading slowed, and the local cotton price was stable. The KCA's 2025/26 annual spot price was stable at 15,500 rupees/mound [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment to global cotton supply - demand data in this month is small. The US cotton production is increasing slightly, and the short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure. - Domestic: The domestic cotton production continues to increase in 2025/26. The short - term supply is sufficient, but the hedging resistance on the disk is weakening. The new orders in the off - season are few, but the market sentiment is improving [2]. Strategy Neutral to bullish. The domestic cotton consumption is increasing, the new - year supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and the cotton price is optimistic after the seasonal pressure [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,269 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.13%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,240 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2025/26 Thai sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production decreased compared with the same period last year [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The 2025/26 global sugar market is in surplus. The short - term decline is limited, and the medium - term high production will suppress the price. - Zheng sugar: The domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year, with increasing supply and import pressure [5]. Strategy Neutral. The fundamental driving force is downward, but the current valuation is low, and there is a possibility of rebound [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,604 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.28%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market was weak [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar and Finnlin Group. - Demand: The European demand has improved, while the domestic terminal demand is insufficient. The port inventory is high but declining. The expansion of downstream paper production capacity will increase the demand for pulp [7]. Strategy Neutral. The overseas supply is disturbed, and the domestic demand may have a mild recovery before the Spring Festival. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatingly strong, but the increase depends on the improvement of demand and inventory digestion [8].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-26 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-92.6元/吨（+16.6），PP油制生产利润为-562.6元/吨（+16.6），PDH制PP生产利 润为-819.7元/吨（-10.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为40.7元/吨（+198.1），PP进口利润为-316.1元/吨（-14.6），PP出口利润为-16.1美元/吨 （-13.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为43.9%（-1.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.2%（-0.7%），PP下游塑编开工率 为43.7%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.0%）。 市场分析 PE方面，供应端维持高位，扬子石化、茂名石化等装置计划重启，短期新增计划检修量有限，从现有检修计划看 明年一季度总体检修量级亦不高，且面临巴斯夫50万吨FDPE新装置即将达产释放，供应宽松压力持续；需求端， PE下游进入需求淡季，下游整体开工继续下滑，农膜开工进一步明显下滑，地膜需求驱动仍有限，后期农膜需求 预期继续逐步转弱；包装膜开工亦环比小幅下滑，刚性采购为主，需求支撑减弱。供增需弱格局使得社会库存延 续累积，且LL和LD绝 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-12-26 关注苯乙烯开工回升速率 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-109元/吨（+27）。纯苯港口库存27.30万吨（+1.30万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费128美元/ 吨（+4美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费121美元/吨（+4美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差179.9美元/吨（-2.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-125元/吨（+5元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-350元/吨（+0），酚酮生产利润-902元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润857元/吨（+68）， 己二酸生产利润-943元/吨（+50）。己内酰胺开工率74.04%（+4.84%），苯酚开工率78.50%（+2.50%），苯胺开工率 62.98%（+1.63%），己二酸开工率63.60%（+4.00%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差17元/吨（+25元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-109元/吨（+68元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存139300吨（+4600吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存84550吨（+2250吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯 乙烯开工率70.7%（+1.6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel industry shows a slight decline in production and sales, with prices remaining volatile, and there are seasonal decline expectations for building materials demand. The iron ore industry has a slight increase in molten iron production and continuous inventory accumulation, and the iron ore price may face downward pressure. The coking coal and coke industry has supply pressure and prices fluctuate slightly. The thermal coal industry has a supply contraction at the end of the year and continuous price drops at ports [1][3][5][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures maintained volatile trading. This week, the output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, demand declined month - on - month, and inventory continued to decline. Among them, rebar production increased, consumption decreased, and inventory decreased; hot - rolled coil production and sales increased, and inventory declined at an accelerated pace. Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals of building materials continue to improve, off - season consumption maintains resilience, production increases slightly, and inventory continues to decline. The demand for building materials still has a seasonal decline expectation. The production and sales of plates improve, demand maintains resilience, and high inventory continuously suppresses plate price performance, with the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continuing to weaken [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' procurement was mainly based on rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 1.341 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.11%; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 0.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100.00%. The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week was 2.2658 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons. The total inventory of iron ore at 45 ports in this period was 158.59 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated. For coke, the spot market price remained stable, and downstream procurement willingness was insufficient; for coking coal, the prices in the main production areas showed mixed trends, and the overall market was still in a wait - and - see state. For imported Mongolian coal, the sentiment at the port improved slightly, and some Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was traded at about 960 - 1000 yuan/ton [5] - **Strategy**: For coking coal and coke, unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, the coal prices in the main production areas fluctuated. Recently, some coal mines stopped production or reduced production after completing their annual tasks, and the overall supply contracted. At the ports, the thermal coal market remained weak, and prices continued to decline to a low - level range. In the import market, the imported coal market remained stable. The demand for imported medium - and high - calorie coal types was average, with prices remaining stable or weak, and the quotes for low - calorie coal generally increased slightly [8] - **Strategy**: Not provided in the content

| 『业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | --- | | 十海辉 Z0019938 2025年12月26日 | | 田温 | | 12月25日 12月24日 涨跌 张跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8350 8350 0 0.00% | | Y2605 8044 7992 52 0.65% 期价 | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05+520 05+500 20 : | | 28264 28264 仓单 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 12月24日 孫跌 涨跌幅 | | 广东24度 8490 8470 20 0.24% 现价 | | 期价 P2605 8514 8486 28 0.33% | | 墓差 P2605 -24 -16 -8 -50.00% | | 现货墓差报价 广东5月 05 +650 05 + 120 530 - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港5月 8975.7 8944.3 31.4 0.35% | | -0.74% | | 0.00% | | 采村溫 | | 12月25日 12月24日 旅跌 旅跌幅 | | 23.64% | | - | | 价差 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent changes in PTA devices are relatively small, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be acceptable. The futures market has risen significantly following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - For MEG, the second - phase device of CNOOC Shell has been successfully restarted. The changes of Huayi and Yulin Chemical devices should be noted around the end of the month. There is still room for a slight increase in the overall ethylene glycol operating rate, and the domestic supply will show a certain increase. In the long - term, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the market sentiment needs time to recover. In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol will be mainly sorted at a low level, and the impact of cost and device news should be noted [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis strengthened. The negotiation was mainly among traders. The December goods were negotiated at a discount of 10 - 16 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4995 - 5110. The January goods were traded at a discount of 60 - 65 to the 05 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 13. The spot is 5060, the basis of the 05 contract is - 92, and the futures price is higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory is 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net long, and the long position increases [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The spot negotiation of ethylene glycol was around a discount of 0 - 15 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Some contract traders in the market actively replenished their stocks, and there was little negotiation for next - week's spot. In the morning, affected by the decline in polyester load, the ethylene glycol market declined moderately, and in the afternoon, the market maintained a narrow range. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated strongly. The January shipment was negotiated and traded at around 438 - 445 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in the offer at high prices, with the overall transaction being relatively stalemate. The spot is 3635, the basis of the 05 contract is - 183, and the futures price is higher than the spot price. The total inventory in East China is 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and the short position increases [8]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand, and the port inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio [12]. - **Price and Profit Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, polyester fibers on December 25 and 24, 2025, as well as the basis, processing fees, and production profits of different products [13]. 5.影响因素总结 - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Not provided in the content - **Unfavorable Influencing Factors**: Not provided in the content - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. For the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Alumina: Continuing to bottom out [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Views - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including futures and spot market prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, and inventory data [1]. - Japan's government plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year, with a 6.3% increase compared to the current fiscal year. The budget growth is mainly driven by social security and defense spending. The government plans to issue about 29.6 trillion yen in new government bonds, and the debt dependence is expected to drop to 24.2% [2]. - Due to rising inflation expectations, the market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will take a more aggressive interest - rate hike path. The auction demand for 2 - year Japanese government bonds is weak, and the 10 - year break - even inflation rate has reached a record high [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,275 yuan, down 55 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 229,349 lots, a decrease of 65,183 lots. The LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2,957 US dollars, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract is 2,646 yuan, up 92 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 279,750 lots, an increase of 108,150 lots [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 21,345 yuan, down 135 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 6,506 lots, a decrease of 908 lots [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The pre - baked anode market price is 6,187 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 612,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price is 2,715 yuan, and the alumina arrival price at Lianyungang is 334 US dollars per ton [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is 12 yuan, up 34 yuan from the previous trading day. The price of Baotai ADC12 is 21,500 yuan, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. Other Information - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is 0, and aluminum alloy is 1 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The outlook for soymeal is to oscillate, waiting for further guidance from the external market; the outlook for soybeans is to oscillate under the influence of the overall soybean market atmosphere [1]. - This week, the soybean market witnessed a typical Christmas rally. On Wednesday, soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade closed up over 10 cents per bushel. After a one - day closure on Thursday, soybean futures trading resumed on Friday, with the focus remaining on South American weather [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - DCE Soybean 2605 closed at 4,125 yuan/ton during the day session, up 19 yuan (+0.46%), and 4,128 yuan at night, up 15 yuan (+0.36%). - DCE Soymeal 2605 closed at 2,760 yuan/ton during the day session, up 21 yuan (+0.77%), and 2,776 yuan at night, up 37 yuan (+1.35%) [1]. 3.1.2 Spot - In Shandong, the soymeal (43%) price was 3,080 - 3,110 yuan/ton, with different basis levels for different months compared to M2605, mostly unchanged from the previous day. - In East China, prices in different regions and for different enterprises ranged from 3,020 - 3,110 yuan/ton, with various basis levels and changes compared to the previous day. - In South China, prices were 3,070 - 3,110 yuan/ton, with differences in basis levels and changes compared to the previous day [1]. 3.1.3 Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soymeal was 10.46 million tons per day, down from 16.49 million tons two days ago. - The inventory of soymeal was 105.63 million tons per week, up from 100.92 million tons two weeks ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Due to public holidays, the markets in the US, Canada, and Malaysia were closed on Thursday, and there was no agricultural product daily review. - This week, the soybean market had a Christmas rally. After the closure on Thursday, trading resumed on Friday, and the focus was on South American weather [1][3]. 3.3 Weather Forecast - In the coming days, Rio Grande do Sul will experience heavy rainfall, while rainfall in Mato Grosso will be irregular. - According to the GFS model, moderate rainfall is expected in many areas of Brazil in the next 10 days, and heavy rainfall is expected in some areas. High temperatures are also being closely monitored as soybeans in the growth - critical period need suitable climate conditions. From Thursday to at least Saturday, national temperatures are expected to remain high [3]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soymeal is 0; the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the reporting day [3].