Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur crack spread fluctuated and declined, the near - month spread decreased, and the EW weakened rapidly. The 380 8 - 9 month spread dropped to $4.25, the basis oscillated at a low level, the FU07 internal - external spread oscillated at - $5, and the 09 spread oscillated at + $10. There was a large amount of delivery goods in the near - month, maintaining a loose pattern [4]. - The low - sulfur crack spread rebounded, the month spread dropped to around $5, the basis weakened slightly and oscillated at $6. The LU internal - external spread remained strong, with the 09 spread oscillating at around $17 [7]. - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased, floating storage oscillated at a high level, low - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly. ARA's on - shore inventory increased slightly, but the inventory was still at the lowest level in the same period of history, and floating storage inventory oscillated with low - sulfur floating storage increasing. Fujairah's on - shore inventory increased significantly, and floating storage decreased slightly [7]. - This week, geopolitical risks were lifted. Recently, fuel oil exports from Iran and Iraq remained at a high level, and Egypt's net imports reached a new high. The high - sulfur fundamentals were in an oscillating pattern. Currently, high - sulfur is in the peak power - generation season, the near - month internal - external spread of FU is under pressure, the valuation is low, and the game continues. In the future, pay attention to the shipping situation in the Middle East. The LU internal - external spread is running at a high level, and pay attention to the domestic production situation [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from $460.60 to $411.99, a change of - $1.97; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased from $509.41 to $474.54, a change of $0.38; and other related spreads also had corresponding changes [2]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - Swap data: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from $471.10 to $415.91, a change of - $7.34; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 increased from $540.67 to $498.49, a change of $3.37 [2][6]. - Spot data: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased from $475.90 to $416.77, a change of - $10.95; the FOB VLSFO price increased from $549.45 to $504.02, a change of $2.08 [3]. Domestic FU Data - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of FU 01 changed from 3180 to 2864, a change of 1; the price of FU 05 changed from 3100 to 2811, a change of - 1; the price of FU 09 changed from 3385 to 3002, a change of - 17 [3]. Domestic LU Data - From June 23 to June 27, 2025, the price of LU 01 changed from 3815 to 3528, a change of 29; the price of LU 05 changed from 3701 to 3434, a change of 14; the price of LU 09 changed from 3968 to 3600, a change of - 23 [4].

刚刚过去的一周（2025 年 6 月 20 日至 27 日）在全球金融市场掀起了一场显著的风险偏好回归浪潮。 在经历了数周因地缘政治紧张和货币政策不确定性带来的谨慎情绪后，市场情绪迎来了戏剧性的转变， 这主要得益于两大关键因素的共振效应。 首先，中东地区地缘政治紧张局势的显著缓解，特别是以色列与伊朗之间达成的停火协议，如同注射了 一剂强心针，迅速平息了冲突升级的担忧，移除了笼罩在投资者心头的一块乌云。 市场对此反应迅速且积极，最直接的体现便是原油价格的急剧下跌。布伦特原油从接近 80 美元的高位 迅速回落至 66 美元，这一下跌幅度是自 2023 年 3 月以来最大的单周跌幅，清晰地反映出地缘政治风险 溢价的快速蒸发。 黄金作为传统的避险资产，也因此失去了部分吸引力，连续第二周下跌，表明在风险缓解的环境下，资 金正在从避险资产流出，转向更具增长潜力的资产类别。 尽管美伊之间仍有摩擦，但双方展现出的克制和外交努力，进一步巩固了市场对局势可控的预期。此 外，美中贸易谈判风险的暂时避免，也为全球风险情绪的改善提供了额外支撑。 如果说地缘政治的缓解是点燃市场情绪的火花，那么美联储的鸽派信号则是为这场反弹提供了持续的燃 ...

Group 1 - Gold experienced a downward trend, reaching a low of 3245, influenced by optimistic trade agreements and stable geopolitical conditions, reducing its appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][4] - The market is expected to see significant changes this week, with attention on non-farm payroll data and central bank leaders' speeches, particularly from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2][4] - The recent price movement of gold from May 30 to June 30 shows a cycle of highs and lows, with a peak at 3451 and a low at 3245, indicating a potential adjustment phase before a possible recovery [4][5] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices have also seen a significant decline, with Shanghai gold dropping from 793 to 762, but the bullish trend remains intact, suggesting a potential rebound if key support levels are maintained [6] - The focus for domestic gold this week is on support levels of 760 for Shanghai gold and 755 for Rongtong gold, with potential upward movement if these levels hold [6] - International silver has shown a rebound after two declines, maintaining a bullish trend, with support at 35.2 and targets at 36.5 and 37 for potential trading strategies [6][7] Group 3 - The Shanghai silver contract continues to exhibit a bullish trend, with key support at 8600 and targets at 8900 and 9000, indicating opportunities for long positions [7] - International crude oil has shown limited volatility after a significant drop, with a focus on the 64 support level for potential rebounds, while the medium-term outlook remains bullish [7][8] - Domestic fuel oil has undergone considerable adjustments but is still viewed as bullish in the long term, with expectations of reaching higher points around 3000 and 3200 [8]

棕榈油周报 2025 年 6 月 30 日 以伊停火协议生效 棕榈油高位回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连跌103收于4012林吉特/吨，跌幅 2.5%；棕榈油09合约跌160收于8376元/吨，跌幅1.87%； 豆油09合约跌154收于8002元/吨，跌幅1.89%；菜油09合 约跌260收于9466元/吨，跌幅2.67%；CBOT美豆油主连跌 2.42收于5 ...

邓正红软实力表示，伊朗和以色列之间的停火虽然脆弱，但至今仍在维持，地缘性软实力弱化。随着地缘政治担忧的消退，交易员已将注意力重新转向市场 基本面，而基本面继续表明下半年供应充足，供应端硬实力强势。8个欧佩克联盟成员国的增产正在加剧看空基调，石油软实力受压。邓正红理论中"商业模 式三齿轮结构"在此情境下体现为：战略齿轮——欧佩克市场份额争夺；战术齿轮——地缘风险定价模型调整；执行齿轮——实际产量与出口量变化。 【人物简介】邓正红，中国软实力之父，创立邓正红软实力思想和智库，建立软实力理论、软实力宇宙哲学、软实力函数、软实力指数工具、软实力油价分 析模型、商业模式效度齿轮结构和基于价值创新的科学-技术-产业三椎体模型，开创能源软实力、低碳软实力和产业软实力，第一个对软实力系统量化与价 值评价，拥有基于企业、城市、国家之软实力指数与软实力价值评估计算一整套自主知识产权，独家发布企业（世界软实力500强、中国上市公司软实力100 强、央企软实力排名）、城市（中国内地城市和地区软实力排序、中国国家高新区软实力排序）和国家（全球软实力100强）三大软实力排行榜，国家电网 《企业软实力丛书（核心价值、核心模式、核心实力）》 ...

2025.06.30-07.04 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 01 P A R T 黄金期货 上周黄金主要受地缘冲突、美联储政策分歧、关税政策节点及经济数据 疲软四重因素交织影响，市场在多空博弈中呈现震荡下行趋势。未来金 价需重点关注 美联储政策转向时点、全球央行购金持续性及通胀路径， 地缘政治黑天鹅事件仍是最大上行风险因子。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 预期黄金主力合约2508短期高位震荡为主，建议观望。下方支撑： 766－775，上方压力800－808。 n 本周策略建议 黄金主力合约2510短线偏空，下方支撑：754－760，上方压力784 －790。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 相关数据情况 5,500,500.00 10,500,500.00 1 ...

南华贵金属日报: 地缘与贸易关税担忧缓和 贵金属市场承压回落 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月30日 【行情回顾】 上周贵金属市场金跌银震，地缘局势缓和以及贸易关税期限延后引发贵金属调整，尽管周内降息预期回 暖。地缘方面，中东伊以冲突缓和削弱贵金属避险需求，本轮冲突虽爆发迅速，但总体看美方介入程度有 限，且伊朗反应较为克制，因此未引发市场明显恐慌，美股亦总体坚挺。 周二亚洲早盘时段，伊朗高级官员 确认，德黑兰已同意由卡塔尔斡旋的、美国提出的与以色列的停火协议，引发原油暴跌，贵金属亦快速调 整。贸易关税方面，美财长贝森特假话预示美国同一些贸易伙伴的谈判可能会延长7月9日截止期至9月；他还 表示美国已经完成和英国的协议，和中国也达成一致。另外，美联储9月降息预期回升，美联储主席周二晚间 在众议院作半年度货币政策证词，在被问及7月降息的可能性时，鲍威尔说"很多路径都有可能"，可能通胀 会不如预期强劲，通胀下行和劳动力市场疲软可能意味着提前降息。鲍威尔称，6月7月数据会看到关税对通 胀影响，至少部分关税将由消费者承担；美联储至今不降息源于通胀升 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 30 日） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 短线看弱 | 地缘冲突缓和，金价技术压力较 大 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：上周金价持续下行，内外金价均跌破 60 日均线。伊朗和以色列停战 ...

铜: 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货80160，基差240，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月27日铜库存减1800至91275吨，上期所铜库存较上周减19264吨至81550吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空减；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运行为 主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 ...

Group 1: Fuel Oil Price Trends - The main futures contract for fuel oil closed at 3002 CNY/ton, a decrease of 361 CNY/ton (-10.73%) from the previous week's closing price [1] - Weekly positions recorded 255,160 contracts with a trading volume of 5.1111 million contracts [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The capacity utilization rate of main refineries for atmospheric distillation was 80.74%, up 0.91% week-on-week and 4.45% year-on-year [2] - Independent refineries' capacity utilization for atmospheric distillation was 57.24%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The transaction volume of low-sulfur residual oil/asphalt for refineries was 31,500 tons, down 6,250 tons (-66.49%) [2] - Inventory rates in Shandong for oil slurry, residual oil, and wax oil increased to 22.8%, 3.0%, and 4.0% respectively [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Concerns over geopolitical tensions are affecting market sentiment, with potential conflicts in the Middle East impacting oil prices [3] - The market is expected to enter a phase dominated by fundamentals, with narrow fluctuations in fuel oil prices anticipated [3][4] - Short-term fuel oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to a lack of market stimulus [4]