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继续压平各类凸点,但关键期限或难以突破关键点位
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-09 15:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Recent bond market trends are mainly about compressing various convex points. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields have faced resistance at key levels since June 11. The 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.65%. In July, the bond market may continue to flatten various spreads, and from August to September, it may further open up space with changes in fundamentals and trade information [2][9][41]. - The money supply is unlikely to drive further decline in bond yields. The bond market has fully priced in the loose money supply since the second quarter, and there is a low probability of the money supply further loosening and inverting with the policy rate. Instead, any marginal change in the money supply could challenge the bond market [2][9]. - Whether the 10 - year Treasury can break through key points in the third quarter depends on fundamentals and trade frictions. The bond market is insensitive to small changes in fundamentals but may react to significant ones. Attention should be paid to the "one - time" pricing of trade friction information in the bond market [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Different Types of Bond Bull: Bond Market Seeking Convex Point Returns - Since June 11, the 10 - year Treasury yield has faced resistance at 1.6%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield at around 1.8%. In the nearly one - month trading period, neither could break through downward. The bond market trends from June 11 to July 8 focused on compressing convex points [13]. - **Term Convex Point**: The long - end spreads of interest - rate bonds converged, and the spreads of long - duration credit bonds also compressed significantly. For example, the yields of 20Y and 50Y Treasuries decreased by 6.5bp and 7.5bp respectively, and the spreads of 5Y and 10Y AA + medium - and short - term notes narrowed by 6.4bp and 11.1bp [13]. - **Variety Convex Point**: The overall credit spread compressed to a historical low. Longer - duration and lower - grade varieties performed well, especially Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. For instance, the credit spread of AA - rated urban investment bonds compressed by 6.7bp, and for 5Y Tier 2 bonds, the compression order was AA > AA + > AAA - [13]. - **Liquidity Convex Point**: The difference in liquidity premiums between active and non - active bonds weakened, and the spread between new and old bonds compressed significantly. For example, the spread between the active and previous active 10Y China Development Bank bonds compressed from 4.3bp to 1.3bp [14]. 3.2 Money Fails to Drive the Bond Market to Break Through Key Points - Since the second quarter, the money supply has been loose, but the bond market has fully priced it. There is a low probability of the money supply further loosening and inverting with the policy rate. Due to the rising inter - bank leverage ratio and large - scale lending by major banks, any marginal change in the money supply could challenge the bond market [27]. - Only Treasuries with a term of over 5 years have positive carry in the current loose money supply environment. If the money price tightens marginally to around 1.6%, the range of Treasuries with positive carry will be compressed to those over 7 years. The central bank's desired market interest rate is within a range, and currently, the money price is close to the lower limit, so monetary easing is unlikely to drive further decline in interest rates [30]. 3.3 Bond Market Breaking Through Key Points Depends on Fundamentals and Trade Frictions - Whether the 10 - year Treasury can break through key points in the third quarter depends on fundamentals and trade frictions. The bond market is insensitive to small changes in fundamentals but may react to significant ones. Attention should be paid to the "one - time" pricing of trade friction information in the bond market [9]. - **Fundamental Concerns**: - Real estate sales were relatively resilient in the first half of the year, but there is uncertainty about further recovery in the second half. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities has been under downward pressure since the end of June [9]. - Consumption growth ultimately depends on urban residents' per capita disposable income and marginal propensity to consume. The "trade - in" policy has temporarily boosted consumption growth, but further growth requires an increase in residents' income or marginal propensity to consume, which are more complex and need further observation [9]. - Trade frictions may lead to "one - time" pricing in the bond market. At the beginning of this round of trade frictions, the bond market declined by 15bp in two trading days and rose by 5bp in one trading day after the Sino - US negotiation on May 12. US President Trump announced that "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on August 1, and as the grace period approaches, attention should be paid to the "one - time" pricing of trade frictions in the bond market [9].
C50风向指数调查:7月同业存单利率中枢或延续下行 短期内重启国债买卖必要性降低
news flash· 2025-07-09 04:19
Core Viewpoint - The latest C50 Wind Direction Index survey indicates that the central rate of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) may continue to decline in July, and the necessity to restart government bond trading in the short term is reduced [1] Group 1: Market Liquidity Outlook - The survey involved 20 market institutions, with 12 expressing an optimistic view on the overall liquidity in July, indicating no liquidity gap [1] - Six institutions assessed the liquidity as neutral, estimating a liquidity gap of less than 1 trillion yuan [1] - Two institutions predicted a potential tightening phase, with a liquidity gap ranging from 1 trillion to 2.06 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Interest Rate and Bond Market Expectations - Multiple market institutions anticipate that the central rate of interbank CDs may continue to decline in July [1] - The resumption of central bank bond purchases is expected to take time, as the market adjusts to the influx of incremental funds from insurance, wealth management, and banks [1] - A bullish trend in the bond market is anticipated, suggesting that early positioning in potential investment varieties for incremental funds may be a favorable strategy [1]
债市日报:7月8日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 12:53
Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to show weakness due to a lack of downward pressure on short-term funding rates and the strength of the A-share market, leading to a slight increase in yields on major interbank bonds and a decline in government bond futures [1] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.22% at 120.920, the 10-year main contract down 0.08% at 109.020, the 5-year main contract down 0.08% at 106.135, and the 2-year main contract down 0.03% at 102.466 [2] - Major interbank bond yields increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.55 basis points to 1.8605%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.55 basis points to 1.7220%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.3 basis points to 1.6430% [2] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 690 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 620 billion yuan for the day, as 1,310 billion yuan in reverse repos matured [4] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate unchanged at 1.312%, the 7-day rate down 0.3 basis points to 1.455%, and the 1-month rate down 1.1 basis points to 1.546%, marking a new low since September 2022 [4] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that while there is a certain degree of preemptive positioning in the bond market, the overall trading congestion has decreased compared to June, although institutions maintain a high duration preference [5] - Guosheng Fixed Income pointed out that the current 50-30 year bond yield spread is at a neutral level, with limited room for further compression, but also minimal adjustment pressure [5] - Changjiang Fixed Income suggested that the credit bond market is driven by ample liquidity and incremental funds, recommending investors to focus on opportunities in 5-year AA+ credit bonds while controlling risk levels [5]
货币市场日报:7月8日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 12:41
上海银行间同业拆放利率(Shibor)延续窄幅波动。具体来看,隔夜Shibor与前日持平,报1.3120%;7天Shibor下跌0.30BP,报1.4550%;14天Shibor上涨 0.60BP,报1.5000%。 | | | | 2025-07-08 11:00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期限 | Shibor(%) | 涨跌(BP) | | 价 | O/N | 1.3120 | 0.00 | | 中 | 1W | 1.4550 | 0.30 | | � | 2W | 1.5000 | 0.60 | | � | 1M | 1.5460 | 1.10 | | 中 | 3M | 1.5700 | 0.90 | | ゃ | 6M | 1.5970 | 0.30 | | 价 | 9M | 1.6090 | 0.30 | | 价 | 1Y | 1.6120 | 0.40 | 新华财经北京7月8日电(刘润榕)人民银行8日开展690亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率持平1.40%;鉴于当日有1310亿元7天期逆回购到期,公开市场实 现净回笼620元。 上海银行间同业拆放利率(7月8日) ...
宏观金融数据日报-20250708
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 07:42
Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DROO1 closed at 1.31 with a 0.05bp increase, DR007 at 1.47 with a 4.37bp increase, GC001 at 1.49 with a 5.50bp increase, and GC007 at 1.51 with a 2.00bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 1.80bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.34 with a 0.40bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.47 with a 0.15bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.64 with a 0.10bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.35 with a 5.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 1065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 3315 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2250 billion yuan [3] - This week, 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1310 billion, 985 billion, 572 billion, and 340 billion maturing from Tuesday to Friday respectively [4] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 3965, down 0.43%; the SSE 50 at 2732, down 0.33%; the CSI 500 at 5900, down 0.19%; and the CSI 1000 at 6327, up 0.24% [5] - The trading volume of the CSI 300 futures (IF) was 67470, down 46.5, and the open interest was 243305, down 8.5; for the SSE 50 futures (IH), the trading volume was 32788, down 50.5, and the open interest was 85845, down 12.2; for the CSI 500 futures (IC), the trading volume was 55201, down 44.4, and the open interest was 220939, down 6.6; for the CSI 1000 futures (IM), the trading volume was 136314, down 45.5, and the open interest was 320782, down 8.7 [5] - The trading volume of the two stock markets was 12087 billion yuan, a decrease of 2199 billion yuan from last Friday. Most industry sectors rose, with the power, grid equipment, household light industry, power supply equipment, diversified finance, real estate development, packaging materials, and public utility sectors leading the gains, while the biological products and medical service sectors leading the losses [5] Group 3: Stock Index Outlook - In the short term, with few domestic and foreign positive factors, there is resistance for the stock index to break through further and it may show a volatile pattern [6] - In the long term, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real - estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Meanwhile, the US tariff policy is yet to be finalized, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut time, overseas liquidity easing expectations and changes in the geopolitical situation will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount - The IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 16.88%, 8.92%, 5.87%, and 4.58% respectively [7] - The IH premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 21.78%, 7.93%, 4.25%, and 1.92% respectively [7] - The IC premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 23.17%, 15.23%, 12.77%, and 10.37% respectively [7] - The IM premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 31.43%, 20.58%, 16.80%, and 14.00% respectively [7]
债市情绪面周报(7月第1周):固收卖方看多情绪创年内新高-20250707
Huaan Securities· 2025-07-07 11:17
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The potential negative factors for the current bond market come from the fundamentals, including economic data disclosure and the progress of Sino-US negotiations. Under the consensus expectation, it is difficult to say that the bond market will reverse. Attention should be paid to the changes in bond market expectations caused by event shocks [2]. - The sentiment index of fixed-income sellers has reached a new high this year, while buyers mainly expect the market to fluctuate, and their sentiment has declined for three consecutive weeks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest Rate Bonds - This week, the weighted tracking index was 0.47, showing a mostly bullish view but lower than last week. The unweighted tracking index was 0.68, up 0.09 from last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral-to-bullish view, with 18 bullish, 6 neutral, and 1 bearish [10]. - 72% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as weak credit, slow economic recovery, external demand shocks, loose monetary policy, low supply pressure in July, and opportunities for a bullish flattening of the curve after the short end declines [4][10]. - 24% of institutions are neutral, with keywords such as the neutral impact of restarting treasury bonds, and potential disturbances from the stock-bond seesaw and unexpected Sino-US negotiations [4][10]. - 4% of institutions are bearish, with the view that the central bank's bond purchases are not the reason for the decline in interest rates, and the economic recovery in the second half of 2025 is expected to drive up prices and interest rates [4][10]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest Rate Bonds - This week, the tracking sentiment index was 0.13, showing a mostly neutral view and lower than last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral-to-bullish view, with 5 bullish and 18 neutral [11]. - 22% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as loose funds and a possible quarter-on-quarter weakening of the economic fundamentals in the third quarter [11]. - 78% of institutions are neutral, with keywords such as the reduced expectation of broad credit after the second-quarter monetary policy meeting and the suppression of bond market sentiment by the equity market [11]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include the recovery of wealth management scale and loose funds. The recovery of wealth management scale may further improve the demand for credit bonds, and loose funds, combined with weak fundamentals, support the overall strength of the bond market and a decline in benchmark interest rates [17]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral-to-bullish view, with 8 bullish and 6 neutral [18]. - 57% of institutions are bullish, believing that with the new bond supply not accelerating significantly on the issuance side, the convertible bond market scale may gradually shrink in the second half of the year, and medium and large-cap convertible bonds among high-quality existing and newly issued bonds are worth attention [18]. - 43% of institutions are neutral, stating that there is still uncertainty about the US tariff increase, and the allocation value of convertible bonds will be better reflected after the valuation is moderately digested [18]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices showed mixed trends. As of July 4, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL treasury bond contracts were 102.51 yuan, 106.26 yuan, 109.10 yuan, and 121.20 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.03 yuan, -0.01 yuan, +0.05 yuan, and +0.31 yuan compared to last Friday [21]. - The trading volume of treasury bond futures generally increased. As of July 4, from a 5MA perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts were 640 billion yuan, 622 billion yuan, 766 billion yuan, and 988 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +3.04 billion yuan, +30.63 billion yuan, +77.98 billion yuan, and -19.99 billion yuan compared to last Friday [21]. - The trading-to-holding ratio of treasury bond futures generally increased. As of July 4, from a 5MA perspective, the trading-to-holding ratios of TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts were 0.27, 0.40, 0.38, and 0.85 respectively, with changes of +0.01, +0.03, +0.04, and -0.03 compared to last Friday [22]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30-year treasury bonds decreased. On July 4, the turnover rate was 4.03%, down 3.90 percentage points from last week and up 0.61 percentage points from Monday, with an average weekly turnover rate of 4.21%. The weekly average turnover rate of interest rate bonds decreased, and the turnover rate on July 4 was 0.93%, down 0.09 percentage points from last week and up 0.28 percentage points from Monday [29]. - The turnover rate of 10-year China Development Bank bonds increased. On July 4, the turnover rate was 4.91%, up 0.45 percentage points from last week and up 1.60 percentage points from Monday [32]. 2.3 Basis Trading - The basis generally narrowed, while the net basis widened across the board. As of July 4, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were -0.02 yuan, 0.001 yuan, 0.14 yuan, and 0.25 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.05 yuan, +0.05 yuan, +0.16 yuan, and -0.07 yuan compared to last Friday [39]. - In terms of the net basis, the net basis of main contracts widened. As of July 4, the net basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were -0.05 yuan, -0.06 yuan, -0.11 yuan, and -0.11 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.01 yuan, -0.01 yuan, -0.07 yuan, and -0.12 yuan compared to last Friday [41]. - In terms of IRR, the IRR of T and TL main contracts increased, while the others decreased. As of July 4, the IRR (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 1.65%, 1.69%, 1.89%, and 1.80% respectively, with changes of -0.20%, -0.23%, +0.03%, and +0.14% compared to last Friday [41]. 2.4 Inter-period and Inter-variety Spreads - Inter-period spreads showed mixed trends. As of July 4, the spreads between the near and far months of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were -0.12 yuan, -0.08 yuan, -0.08 yuan, and 0.13 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, -0.005 yuan, -0.07 yuan, and -0.01 yuan compared to last Friday [48]. - Inter-variety spreads of main futures contracts all narrowed. As of July 4, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL were 98.77 yuan, 103.39 yuan, 300.92 yuan, and 206.13 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.06 yuan, -0.07 yuan, -0.19 yuan, and -0.14 yuan compared to last Friday [48].
期债 暂难突破前高
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-07 09:30
Group 1: Manufacturing PMI - In June, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 51%, while the new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, suggesting improving demand [1] - The current PMI is primarily affected by the backlog of finished goods inventory, but as inventory is gradually digested, new order growth momentum is expected to be released further [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI - The non-manufacturing PMI for June was 50.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1] - The construction PMI rose by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, likely linked to the acceleration of "two heavy" projects and stronger policies to stabilize the real estate market [1] - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, possibly due to reduced offline travel activity after holiday effects [1] Group 3: Government Debt Supply and Funding - In the first half of the year, the fiscal supply was robust, with 6.66 trillion yuan of government bonds issued, representing 51% of the annual quota [3] - Local government special bond issuance accelerated in June, with 4.4 trillion yuan of new quotas, and 48% already issued [3] - The overall issuance volume is expected to remain stable in the second half, with a projected issuance of 5.8 trillion yuan, keeping liquidity pressure manageable [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The third quarter is expected to see a peak in local government special bond issuance, which may enhance funding for local-led projects [4] - The central bank's monetary policy tools are anticipated to support financing for "two heavy" and "two new" projects, potentially increasing infrastructure investment [4] - The economic recovery remains weak, with external demand showing marginal improvement, but internal economic momentum still requires strengthening [5]
利率债周报 | 债市偏暖震荡,收益率曲线进一步陡峭化
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-07 08:49
Market Overview - The bond market experienced a warm oscillation last week, with a slight decline in long-term bond yields. The 10-year government bond futures main contract rose by 0.03%, while the 10-year bond yield fell by 0.29 basis points compared to the previous week [2][3] - The yield curve has steepened further, driven by a combination of factors including a loosening of the funding environment and a reduction in government bond issuance [1][3] Secondary Market - On July 1, the bond market was supported by a loosening funding environment and a reduction in government bond issuance, leading to a general decline in yields. The 10-year bond yield decreased by 0.36 basis points [4] - On July 2, the market continued to strengthen due to the increasingly loose funding environment, with the 10-year bond yield falling by 0.37 basis points [4] - On July 3, the bond market remained warm, with most yields declining, although the 10-year bond yield increased slightly by 0.11 basis points [4] - On July 4, short-term bonds continued to perform well due to the ongoing loose funding environment, while long-term bonds weakened slightly due to the stock-bond effect, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 0.26 basis points [4] Primary Market - A total of 47 bonds were issued last week, a decrease of 130 bonds from the previous week, with an issuance volume of 513.2 billion, down by 354.4 billion. The net financing amount was 376.6 billion, a significant decrease of 404.1 billion [11][12] - Government bonds, policy bank bonds, and local government bonds saw varying issuance trends, with government bonds and policy bank bonds increasing while local government bonds saw a significant decrease [11][12] Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic sentiment continued to improve in June, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from May. The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points [13] - The service sector PMI decreased slightly to 50.1%, reflecting seasonal trends, while the composite PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating ongoing expansion [13] Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 1375.3 billion in the open market last week, indicating a tightening of liquidity despite the overall loose funding environment [24]
债市日报:7月7日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-07 08:34
债市周一(7日)偏弱整理,期现券波动都不大,国债期货主力全天多数在平盘附近整理,银行间现券 收益率振幅基本在0.5BP以内;公开市场单日净回笼2250亿元,资金利率仍普遍延续下行。 机构认为,随着7月税期走款、MLF回笼、政府债缴款规模提升,资金面波动可能加大,需要关注央行 公开市场投放情况。若短久期国债单期供给规模大幅下行,大行一级市场存在配置缺口,其在二级市场 买入短债力量有望增强,进而推动短端利率下行。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数下跌,30年期主力合约跌0.04%报121.150,10年期主力合约持平于109.105,5年期主 力合约跌0.02%报106.225,2年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.502。 银行间主要利率债收益率走势小幅分化,截至发稿时,30年期"25超长特别国债02"收益率上行0.05BP至 1.852%,10年期"25国开10"收益率下行0.18BP至1.7157%,10年期"25附息国债11"收益率上行0.02BP至 1.6412%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.19%,报446.59点,成交金额644.01亿元。精装转债、电化转债、楚江转债、 松霖转债、振华转债跌幅居前,分别跌 ...
流动性跟踪:1.3%的隔夜能持续吗?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-07-05 08:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capital market is expected to enter a relatively comfortable range in July, supported by seasonal patterns and the central bank's supportive attitude. However, there are still some disturbances in July, and attention should be paid to the periodic pressure on the capital market [2][17][20] - Next week, the pressure of maturing certificates of deposit and the net payment scale of government bonds will increase, but the capital market at the beginning of the month is expected to remain balanced and loose. With the central bank's support, the capital price may continue to run at a relatively low level [3][27] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1. 1.3% Overnight Rate Sustainability - The central bank's large - scale injection supported the cross - quarter capital market, with seasonal increases in capital prices and overall stability. After the cross - quarter period, the central bank's large - scale net withdrawal did not change the loosening trend of the capital market, and the lending of large banks rebounded rapidly, leading to a decline in capital and certificate of deposit prices [1][12] - In July, the capital market may enter a comfortable range, but there are disturbances such as tax payments and MLF withdrawals in the middle of the month, and attention should be paid to the central bank's injection [2][20][25] 3.2 2. Open Market: Next Week's Maturity Pressure Declines - From June 30 to July 4, the net reverse repurchase investment in the open market was - 13753 billion yuan. From July 7 to July 11, 6522 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [4][32][33] 3.3 3. Government Bonds: Local Bond Issuance Exceeds 2000 Billion Yuan Next Week - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 341 billion yuan. Next week, government bond issuance will drop to 2020 billion yuan, with no treasury bond issuance and 2020 billion yuan of local bond issuance. The net payment of treasury bonds is 1599 billion yuan, and that of local bonds is 1112 billion yuan [38] 3.4 4. Excess Reserve Tracking Forecast - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in July 2025 will be about 0.85%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.3 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 0.64 pct [43] 3.5 5. Money Market: This Week's Capital Interest Rates Declined - Compared with June 27, DR001, DR007, R001, and R007 decreased by 5.43BP, 27.46BP, 9.94BP, and 43.2BP respectively to 1.31%, 1.42%, 1.36%, and 1.49% [6][46] - The overnight and 7 - day SHIBOR rates decreased by 1.34BP and 9.32BP respectively to 1.37% and 1.63%. The overnight and 7 - day CNH HIBOR rates decreased by 5.91BP and 9.56BP respectively to 1.76% and 1.81% [51] 3.6 6. Interbank Certificates of Deposit 6.1 Primary Market: This Week's Certificate of Deposit Issuance Scale Continued to Decline - From June 30 to July 4, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 2429 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 339 billion yuan. Compared with last week, the issuance scale decreased, and the net financing increased [69] - By issuer, joint - stock banks had the highest issuance scale, and city commercial banks had the highest net financing. By term, 1 - year certificates of deposit had the highest issuance scale and net financing [69] - Next week, the maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit will be 5213 billion yuan, an increase from this week [70][80] 6.2 Secondary Market: Yields Broke Through the Previous Low - This week, the secondary yields of certificates of deposit continued to decline, breaking through the previous low and mostly operating in the range of 1.5% - 1.6% [95] - The yields of certificates of deposit of all terms and grades decreased. The relative value of certificates of deposit changed compared with last week [95][101]