1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the macro - environment at home and abroad will improve to some extent. The Fed may start a new round of interest - rate cuts, and the RMB is expected to strengthen in China, which may further expand policy space. However, the newly released steel industry's steady - growth plan has no obvious positive impact. After the military parade, coal mine复产 may increase coal - end pressure, and the cost support is limited. The steel market is in a stage of weakening demand while steel mill production is increasing, so the supply - demand mismatch still exerts pressure on prices. It is expected that steel prices will mainly fluctuate weakly in September, waiting for demand improvement signals, and the price may first decline and then rise [78]. - In September, the market will focus on the sustainability of high hot - metal production. Entering the golden September and silver October demand season, with a favorable domestic and foreign macro - environment and better profits for steel mills this year, iron ore prices may not enter a trending downward channel without a rapid decline in hot - metal production. However, attention should be paid to the improvement of steel demand. High iron ore prices may stimulate shipping enthusiasm, and iron ore shipping may accelerate in September. It is expected that iron ore prices may first rise and then fall, ranging from 730 to 800 [81]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Steel**: In August, steel prices rose first and then fell. The spot price was relatively stable, mainly due to the weakening cost support after the cooling of the anti - involution. In August, the off - season characteristics of steel became apparent, the supply pressure continued to accumulate, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the inventory gradually accumulated, suppressing the price [5]. - **Iron Ore**: In August, iron ore prices showed strong resilience and fluctuated upward. At the beginning of the month, they adjusted following the decline in coking coal prices. However, the actual demand for iron ore was strong, steel mills maintained high blast - furnace hot - metal production driven by profits, the supply decreased, and the inventory pressure was small. Currently, the market is trading the expectation of peak - season demand, and the price is strong [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Overseas (US)**: In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, far below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%. The ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, indicating a slowdown in service - sector activities and increased price pressure. The CPI in July was in line with expectations, but the PPI soared year - on - year, dampening the expectation of interest - rate cuts. In August, the manufacturing and service sectors showed strong demand. The Fed Chairman Powell's dovish statement led the market to fully price in two interest - rate cuts within the year. However, the relatively stable US economy may restrict the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut process [10][16]. - **Domestic**: In July, the effect of policies to expand domestic demand continued to emerge. The CPI rose month - on - month, mainly driven by the rise in service and industrial consumer goods prices, and was flat year - on - year due to low food prices. The PPI decreased month - on - month, and the decline narrowed. Since August, the anti - involution trading has weakened, and the market has returned to a volatile pattern. In July, social financing increased year - on - year, mainly contributed by government bonds, but the subsequent support may weaken. The RMB loans decreased year - on - year, and both corporate and household loans declined. The economic indicators in July showed marginal weakness, and the real economy was still weak [19][23][28]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Terminal Demand**: - **Real Estate**: Real estate investment continued to decline, sales weakened, new construction decline narrowed slightly, and the completion area decline expanded. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to fall. The Shanghai government issued new real - estate policies to boost consumption [35]. - **Infrastructure**: From January to July, infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year, a slowdown from the previous period. In July, the issuance of new special bonds accelerated, and the "special new special bonds" also accelerated issuance, which will support infrastructure steel demand [38]. - **Automobile**: In July, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The new - energy vehicle market continued to grow rapidly [42]. - **Excavator and Ship**: In July, the production and sales of excavators increased, and the export of ships increased [45]. - **Steel Export**: In July, steel exports continued to grow well. The export of steel billets reached a record high. However, the US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list, and the subsequent impact on exports needs attention [46][47]. - **Supply**: In July, China's crude - steel and pig - iron production decreased year - on - year. In August, the blast - furnace operating rate of steel mills was high, and the electric - furnace operating rate continued to rise. Currently, steel mills lack the motivation to reduce production, but attention should be paid to the impact of end - of - month maintenance [51][54][56]. - **Inventory**: In August, steel supply increased while demand decreased, and steel inventory began to accumulate significantly. The inventory pressure was mainly on social inventory, showing a transfer from the production end to the circulation end [60]. - **Apparent Demand**: In August, steel demand gradually weakened. The demand for building materials continued to weaken, while the demand for plates was still supported by exports and manufacturing. In September, demand may improve slowly [63]. - **Iron Ore (Import, Shipment, and Inventory)**: In July, iron ore imports decreased. In August, iron ore shipments gradually recovered, and the arrival at ports increased slowly. Since August, hot - metal production has remained at a high level of over 2.4 million tons, supporting iron ore prices. The port inventory was relatively stable, and steel mills made small - scale restocking [66][67][69][73].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In August, the three major rubber futures contracts showed a slightly stronger trend with limited gains due to minor improvements in the rubber's fundamentals and a relatively warm macro - environment. The cost of rubber is supported by weather, and the inventory has a slight structural improvement. The downstream tire demand has resilience, but the fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the price will fluctuate within a range, with external macro - disturbances likely to widen the price fluctuation range [6][27] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the main contracts of natural rubber (RU), 20 - numbered rubber (NR), and synthetic rubber (BR) had monthly increases of 3.12%, 3.04%, and 3.66% respectively, with corresponding increases in positions of 56,608 lots, 5,873 lots, and 19,561 lots. The domestic stock market rose unilaterally in August, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation increased. The cost of rubber was supported by weather, the monthly rubber inventory decreased slightly, and the downstream tire demand had resilience [6] 2. Data Analysis - **Raw material prices**: As of August 28, the glue price in Thailand was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, the cup - glue price was 50.7 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 14,300 yuan/ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,200 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in major producing areas were firm, and the cost support would remain in September due to weather affecting the peak - season output [8] - **Imports**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 47.48 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 360.05 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82%. Thailand's exports decreased significantly, while Vietnam and Laos had obvious increases. Vietnam became the second - largest source country [10] - **Inventory**: As of August 22, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, general trade spot inventory, and domestic third - party inventory all decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the month but were higher than the same period last year. The overall inventory had a slight structural improvement but still faced greater pressure than last year [13] - **Raw material and production cost**: In August, the domestic butadiene price fluctuated within a narrow range. The theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber enterprises was 240.4286 yuan/ton, and the loss range fluctuated within a narrow range [15] - **Butadiene rubber inventory**: As of August 29, the total inventory of butadiene rubber sample production and trading enterprises was 3.172 tons, with a small change from the beginning of the month but an increase of 7,370 tons compared to last year. The inventory removal was under pressure due to increased supply [18] - **Tire exports**: In July 2025, the export volume of China's truck and bus tires reached 45.44 tons, breaking the monthly record for the third time this year. The export volume of passenger car tires was 32.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.78% and a year - on - year increase of 7.20%. However, the export pressure is expected to increase in the fourth quarter [19] - **Tire inventory**: As of the end of August, the inventory turnover days of all - steel tires were about 39 days, 4 days less than last year, with good inventory removal. The inventory turnover days of semi - steel tires were about 46 days, 4 days more than last year, with slow inventory removal [21] - **Tire capacity utilization**: As of August 29, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a 5.63% increase from the beginning of the month and a 5.1% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, with little change from the beginning of the month but an 8.73% decrease year - on - year [23] 3. Future Outlook - The macro - environment has limited impact on the commodity market, and the actual improvement of terminal demand needs further observation. The rubber cost is supported by weather, the inventory has a slight structural improvement, and the downstream tire demand may be boosted in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. However, whether the supply - demand relationship can be substantially improved depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory removal speed [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the demand for pure benzene has some support, and the BZN spread remains stable. Styrene is expected to oscillate with bottom support in September due to high planned maintenance volume. [3] - The global crude oil market is expected to face a record supply surplus next year. Crude oil prices are adjusting in a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early September. [4] - The tight - balance pattern of PX has loosened, and its processing fee support is weakening. The PTA supply - demand pattern is expected to improve in the short term, but it is still a long - term supply - surplus situation. [4] - The price of ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to low inventory and slightly improved demand. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs BZ&EB - Pure benzene's current high - level operating rate and decreased port inventory, but overall inventory is still high and may accumulate later. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and terminal orders are poor. [3] - Styrene's operating rate remains stable, with a slight inventory build - up. Planned maintenance in September may lead to supply contraction, and downstream demand is rising. [3] - This week, pure benzene's operating rate is 79.18% (up 0.19% from last week), and styrene's is 78.07% (down 0.46% from last week). BZN remains at around $150/ton. [30] - As the "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, downstream demand has improved month - on - month, but terminal consumption verification is needed. [30] Crude Oil - The IEA predicts a record supply surplus in the global crude oil market next year due to OPEC+ production increase and slow demand growth. [4] - Crude oil prices are adjusting in a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early September to see if production increase will be suspended in October. [4] PX&PTA - Domestic PX's operating rate is high, inventory has changed from destocking to stocking, and the tight - balance pattern has loosened. [4] - The PTA supply - demand pattern is expected to improve in the short term, and there is a destocking expectation. The processing fee has recovered to 239 yuan/ton but is still at a low level this year. [4] - China's PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 84.63%, the same as last week, and Asia's is 74.45% (up 1.54% week - on - week). [8] - The PTA spot price is 4834 yuan/ton (up 87 yuan/ton from last week), and the mainstream spot basis is 2.75 yuan/ton. [11] - The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 70.71% (down 5.51% week - on - week) due to a 500 - million - ton device's maintenance. [11] MEG - There are supply - side policies stimulating the ethylene glycol market, but there are also demand - side device clearances bringing negative pressure. [4] - This week, the ethylene glycol price is 4539 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton from last week), and the total domestic capacity utilization rate is 65.11% (up 2.66% from last week). [15] - Ethylene glycol's port inventory is at a historical low level (41.32 million tons, down 8.46 million tons from last week), and attention should be paid to the supply - demand gap risk. [15] Polyester Industry - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of China's polyester industry is 86.66% (up 0.11% week - on - week). [22] - Terminal orders have increased, and the market sentiment has improved, but the industry is still over - supplied, and downstream profits are still in the red. [22] - Based on the demand seasonality of textile raw materials, the decline in filament and staple fiber demand may be almost over, and attention should be paid to whether demand will pick up next month. [22]

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results on August 29, with the main contract for tin rising over 2% and glass, rapeseed meal, polysilicon, and cotton contracts increasing by over 1% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1431.79 points, up 3.48 points or 0.24% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1977.79 points, up 4.80 points or 0.24% [1] Group 2 - Tin prices surged to a five-month high of 278,880 yuan/ton, driven by increased market sentiment and concerns over tightening supply due to low overseas inventories and slow recovery of Myanmar's tin mines [2] - Glass futures showed signs of stabilization, with a 1.63% increase in the main contract, supported by a decrease in inventory and positive market sentiment regarding macroeconomic policies and seasonal demand [3] - Palm oil contracts continued to decline, down 1.69%, due to a lack of upward driving forces, although there are expectations of reduced supply in the Southeast Asian region [4] - Industrial silicon faced downward pressure with a 1.29% drop in the main contract, attributed to weak downstream demand and high overall inventory levels [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market's fundamentals may show a situation where the supply growth rate converges and demand gradually recovers. The price of lithium carbonate may be supported. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control risks, and also to construct a long straddle option to bet on increased volatility [7][8][61] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The weekly line of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated weakly, with a change rate of - 2.25% and an amplitude of 7.37%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 77,180 yuan/ton [7] - **Macro Environment**: The National Development and Reform Commission will improve policies to expand domestic demand, create a fair competition environment, and support enterprises in innovation and employment [7] - **Fundamentals**: Overseas miners may hold back supply and raise prices, and domestic mining disturbances will affect raw material supply, keeping lithium ore prices firm. High ore prices provide cost support for lithium prices. Given the current high supply and inventory pressure, the supply growth rate of lithium carbonate may slow down. With the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, downstream demand for replenishment will increase [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control trading rhythm to manage risks [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of August 29, 2025, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 77,180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,780 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 740 yuan/ton [14] - **Spot Price**: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 79,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,250 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 2,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,470 yuan/ton [20] 3.3 Upstream Market - **Lithium Spodumene**: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 950 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 7.1385, a week - on - week decrease of 0.55% [24] - **Lithium Mica**: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The average price of lithiophilite was 7,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 175 yuan/ton [29] 3.4 Industry Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons from June, a decrease of 21.77% month - on - month and 42.67% year - on - year. The monthly production was 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from June, an increase of 1.13% month - on - month and 14.36% year - on - year. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a decrease of 5% month - on - month and 32% year - on - year [34] - **Demand Side** - **Intermediate Products**: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 55,750 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. As of July 2025, the monthly production of electrolyte was 179,450 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons from June, an increase of 3.94% month - on - month and 44.16% year - on - year [37] - **Cathode Materials**: The prices of lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained flat, while the prices of ternary materials, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate decreased. The production of lithium iron phosphate, electrolyte, ternary materials, and lithium cobaltate increased, while the production of lithium manganate decreased [37][42][45][50][53] - **New Energy Vehicles**: As of July 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 44.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68% and a year - on - year increase of 8.61%. The monthly production was 1,243,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%; the sales volume was 1,262,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 84.75% [55][60] 3.5 Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is - 0.04, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to bet on increased volatility and construct a long straddle option [63]

Core Viewpoint - PTA futures experienced a slight decline of 0.29%, closing at 4784.00 yuan/ton, indicating a downward trend in the market [1] Industry Summary - A 1.2 million ton PTA facility in East China has recently been shut down, with an uncertain restart timeline. The new 3.2 million ton PTA facility is currently operating at 80-90% capacity [2] - As of the week ending August 28, PTA factory inventory stands at 3.81 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous week and up 0.05 days year-on-year [2] - On August 28, the number of PTA futures warehouse receipts was 29,938, a decrease of 1,002 from the previous trading day [2] Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures noted that aside from increased short positions in PTA, the overall market has shown a downward trend. However, adjustments in domestic and Korean petrochemical capacities may stabilize the sector in the short term, with environmental regulations causing temporary shutdowns in Huizhou providing some support. The basis has slightly recovered, reducing to levels seen in January to mid-February. Downstream operating rates have rebounded to 89.9%, with inventory replenishment accelerating ahead of the peak season, suggesting a potential slight inventory reduction in September [3] - Ningzheng Futures highlighted a decrease in PTA operating rates and social inventory. With an improving macroeconomic environment and expectations for traditional demand peaks in September and October, downstream polyester operating rates are stabilizing, although sustainability remains uncertain. On the cost side, the supply-demand outlook for PX has weakened marginally in August, with crude oil showing a weak fluctuation [3]

8月份国内液化石油气（LPG）商品量环比出现微增。分析其原因，虽然部分地区装置检修与复工并 存，但进口贸易商采购积极性较高，驱动国内LPG总供应量环比增加。 展望9月份，LPG市场看涨情绪浓厚，但炼厂检修不多，预计将推动LPG供应量保持偏高水平。 具体来看，8月份国内LPG商品量环比微增，但整体波动有限。其中华东宁波大榭二期装置投产，华北 燕山石化、山东胜利炼厂、西北榆能化、中煤蒙大检修恢复；而华南广西石化短期停工检修，东北抚顺 石化，山东齐成石化、东明石化，西北神华新疆、格尔木炼厂装置停工。炼厂装置检修与复产并存，导 致区域供应格局调整，而部分炼厂自用量增加，民用气外放水平偏低，一定程度上减轻了市场供应压 力。 进口方面来看，一方面，贸易局势出现缓和迹象，国内贸易商对美国货的采购积极性提升。另一方面， 8月CP丙、丁烷价格均较7月下调，进口到岸成本下调，刺激下游接货积极性。此外，国内深加工需求 增加，也助力LPG进口量增长。综合预计，8月份进口量仍将维持300万吨以上的高位水平。 但从LPG价格表现来看，尽管总供应量环比增加，但局部地区供应收紧以及进口成本上升，使得上游企 业惜售推涨意愿增强，卖方通过控制出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new real estate policy in Shanghai aims to stimulate the housing market by relaxing purchase qualifications, enhancing financial support, reducing interest burdens, and optimizing holding costs, particularly targeting the outer ring areas where inventory is high [1][2][5] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new policy allows eligible residents and single individuals to purchase unlimited properties in the outer ring, while limiting purchases to two in the inner ring for local families [2][3] - Non-local families and single individuals can also buy unlimited properties in the outer ring if they have paid social insurance or income tax in Shanghai for over one year [2] - The policy is expected to increase the proportion of new home transactions in the outer ring, which accounted for 60% of total transactions in the first seven months of the year [2][3] Group 2: Inventory and Market Dynamics - The outer ring faces significant inventory pressure, with 76.6% of the total new residential inventory located there, leading to a longer de-stocking period of 17.6 months compared to 7.3 months in the inner ring [3] - The policy aims to accelerate the de-stocking process in the outer ring, benefiting families looking for retirement or vacation homes [3][4] Group 3: Financial Support and Loan Adjustments - The policy increases the maximum housing provident fund loan limits by 15% for green buildings, raising the first loan limit from 1.6 million to 1.84 million yuan [4] - It also allows for the extraction of housing provident funds for down payments without affecting loan limits [4] - Commercial loan interest rates will no longer differentiate between first and second homes, potentially reducing monthly payments significantly [4] Group 4: Market Response and Expectations - The timing of the policy release is seen as crucial for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" sales period, aiming to stabilize and boost market sentiment [5][6] - Previous policy adjustments in 2024 led to significant increases in transaction volumes, indicating a positive market response to regulatory changes [6] - Initial market feedback shows increased inquiries in some outer ring areas, although some projects have not yet seen significant changes in visitor numbers [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The traditional consumption peak seasons "Golden September and Silver October" are approaching. The demand for PE downstream agricultural films and greenhouse films is gradually starting, and the packaging film industry is stocking up in advance. The plastic products industry is recovering with the seasonal demand growth of home appliances and automobiles. The number of PE parking and maintenance devices has increased, slightly alleviating the supply pressure. However, the overall current operation is still at a relatively high level, with production enterprises accumulating inventory and upstream facing certain de - stocking pressure. The PP operation rate is flat month - on - month, and the inventory in the upstream and mid - stream links has decreased slightly. New PP production capacity is continuously being released. The international oil price shows a weak trend, the oil - based production profit is acceptable, the propane price has increased slightly, and the PDH - based PP profit is near the break - even point [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - It includes the trend of plastic futures' main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as the trend of polypropylene futures' main contracts and the basis between PP East China and the main contract [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operation Rate - For PE, it involves LL production profit (crude oil - based), PE operation rate, PE weekly output, and PE maintenance loss. For PP, it includes PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operation rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [19][22][29] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - It covers the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [28][35][36] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - For LL, it includes LL import profit, the price difference between LL US Gulf FOB and China CFR, the price difference between LL Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and the price difference between LL Europe FD and China CFR. For PP, it involves PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and the price differences between PP homopolymer injection molding from different regions and China CFR [43][53][61] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operation and Downstream Profit - It includes the operation rates of PE downstream agricultural films, packaging films, and winding films, as well as the operation rates and production profits of PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP, and injection molding [62][63][71] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - It includes the inventories of PE oil - based enterprises, PE coal - chemical enterprises, PE traders, PE ports, PP oil - based enterprises, PP coal - chemical enterprises, PP traders, and PP ports [73][78][83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PVC continues to be weak, with the futures price falling and the basis strengthening slightly. Supply pressure remains high in the long - term, demand is weak, social inventory is accumulating, and the supply - demand situation is poor. The export situation may weaken in the fourth quarter [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is mainly stable. Supply and demand are affected by factors such as maintenance, downstream demand, and transportation restrictions. The cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4946 yuan/ton (-3), the East China basis is -266 yuan/ton (-17), and the South China basis is -156 yuan/ton (-7) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4680 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4790 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -64 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -223 yuan/ton (+8), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is -592 yuan/ton (-52), and the PVC export profit is 16.7 US dollars/ton (+0.3) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (-2.1), the PVC social inventory is 50.8 tons (+1.5), the PVC calcium carbide - based operation rate is 75.24% (-0.83%), the PVC ethylene - based operation rate is 68.66% (-3.78%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 73.33% (-1.69%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 72.5 tons (-6.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2692 yuan/ton (-7), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 27 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 744.5 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 662.53 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1428.45 yuan/ton (-30.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 37.95 tons (-1.69), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.14 tons (-0.22), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.40% (-0.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.78% (+0.14%), the East China printing and dyeing operation rate is 64.73% (+0.87%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 86.02% (-0.20%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Maintenance increases, the operation rate decreases month - on - month, but the overall operation rate is at a high level. Newly - added production capacity is gradually being put into production, and the long - term supply pressure is high [3]. - Demand side: The operation rate of downstream products remains low, enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. Export orders and deliveries increase month - on - month. The export in July exceeded expectations due to pre - anti - dumping tax rush exports, but the export situation may weaken in the fourth quarter [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory continues to accumulate and is relatively high compared to the same period. The warehouse receipt pressure of the 09 contract is large [3]. - Profit: There is still room for compression of chlor - alkali profit, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply side: Chlor - alkali enterprises' maintenance increases, the operation rate decreases month - on - month but is at a high level compared to the same period. The operation rate in Shandong rises slightly, but may decline slightly later due to Yantai Wanhua's maintenance [3]. - Demand side: The profit of alumina is acceptable, the operation rate is stable month - on - month, the delivery volume to alumina plants increases, and the spot price remains stable. The non - aluminum operation rate increases slightly month - on - month, but there is a fear of high - priced goods. Transportation is restricted in late August due to the parade, and factory inventory may accumulate later. The order backlog in Shandong is acceptable [3]. - Profit: The liquid chlorine price is weak, cost support exists, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy - PVC: For single - side trading, take a wait - and - see approach; for inter - delivery spread trading, take a wait - and - see approach; there is no inter - variety strategy [4]. - Caustic Soda: For single - side trading, be cautiously bullish; for the SH10 - 01 spread, conduct a positive spread trading when the price difference is low; there is no inter - variety strategy [4][5].