Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are influenced by macro - economic factors, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships [2]. - Different commodities have different price trends and investment opportunities, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity. Summary by Categories Financial - **Equity Index**: There is an obvious high - low switching phenomenon between sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and replace them with a small amount of short positions in MO put options with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract. Unilateral strategies suggest short - term waiting and paying attention to the capital side and incremental policies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the tax period this week, funds may gradually return to a loose state. In the short - term, the bond market is significantly affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and is in a box - shock stage. Curve strategies can continue to bet on steepening [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold fluctuates more due to short - term trade conflicts and a weaker dollar, maintaining a shock - upward trend above $3300. Silver has further upward space above $38 and long positions can be held [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract fluctuates. It is expected that the near - month will be weakly volatile. It is advisable to short the 08 contract or lightly short the 10 contract on rallies [2]. Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The sentiment in the black metal market has improved, pig iron production has rebounded, and steel mills' restocking provides support. It is recommended to go long on dips for steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the advancement of anti - involution policies, copper prices fluctuate strongly, with the main contract referring to 78,500 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Alumina is strong due to capacity elimination expectations and squeezing risks. Aluminum prices have a slight recovery, but the off - season inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Zinc has weak demand expectations with inventory accumulation. Tin, nickel, and stainless steel have different trends affected by macro and industrial factors [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The macro and fundamental aspects are in a multi - empty stalemate, and short - term oil prices fluctuate mainly. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset in the short - term [2]. - **Chemicals**: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX is supported in the short - term, PTA is also supported, and some products like caustic soda and PVC are affected by macro and policy factors [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, soybeans have strong bottom support, palm oil is weak due to slow exports, and cotton has a short - term strong trend and a medium - term bearish trend [2]. Special Commodities - Glass, rubber, and industrial silicon are affected by macro factors. Their prices have risen, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are affected by macro - sentiment. Their prices have upward trends, and it is recommended to wait and see while paying attention to risk management [2].

Core Viewpoint - The mining ETF (561330) has risen over 1.2%, supported by favorable domestic and international policies that bolster industrial metal prices [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. June CPI rebounded to 2.7%, alongside a 0.6% month-on-month increase in retail data, indicating persistent consumer resilience and supporting inflation expectations for industrial metal prices [1] - The market anticipates a 50.8% probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - China's GDP growth for the first half of the year was 5.3%, with cumulative export growth of 5.9% [1] Policy Environment - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are continuously releasing support, and with a generally warm policy tone both domestically and internationally, the pressure on prices during the off-season is limited [1] - It is expected that the peak season and interest rate cut expectations will boost industrial metal prices after mid-August [1] - The industrial metal prices are likely to operate on a strong trend in the second half of the year under a backdrop of domestic and international policy easing [1] ETF and Index Information - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metal mining index (931892), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd. This index selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals from the A-share market to reflect the overall performance of related listed companies [1] - The index exhibits strong cyclicality and resource attributes, effectively reflecting market trends in the non-ferrous metal industry chain [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link A (018167) and Guotai CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Theme ETF Initiated Link C (018168) [1]

国投期货研究院 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月22日 (原油) 昨日国际油价小幅收跌，布伦特09合约跌0.2%，SC09合约跌0.62%。欧盟第18轮对俄制裁收紧对 俄原油的限价制裁，同时通过强化对"影子油轮"及金融机构制裁的方式打击规避限价制裁的行 为,但能否对俄原油供应产生压缩仍需观察规避制裁行为的持续性,对第三方国家加工俄罗斯原油 所产生成品油的禁令亦暂缓6个月。总体来看，7月贸易战的利空风险大于地缘因素的利多风险，油 价或转为震荡承压。 (责金属) 近期宏观情绪积极，中国政策预期强化带动商品整体强势表现。黄金向上驱动有限，但在美国关税 政策截止日前不确定性仍强，美元走弱前景未改，贵金属宽幅震荡，金银比仍有下修空间。 【铜】 隔夜铜价延续涨势,国内工业品交投气氛感染铜价,且周末国内社库去库快,SMM社库大减至11.86 万吨，钢联社库减至12.55万吨。倾向铜价上方整数关阻力强，交投上，前期2508期权组合周内持 有到期。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝跟随有色偏强震荡。周一铝锭社库增加0.6万吨，铝棒下降0.5万吨，需求前置后环比回落 但未超季节性，继续关注铸锭 ...

宏观经济深度研究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 程实，博士 (852) 2683 3231 shi.cheng@icbci.icbc.com.cn 徐婕，博士 (852) 2683 3777 jessica.xu@icbci.icbc.com.cn 相关研究： 美联储的信任危机 " 风声鹤唳，草木皆兵。 " 比美联储失控更危险的，是对其可能失控的想象。当 地时间 2025 年 7 月 21 日，前美联储主席伯南克与耶伦罕见联名发声，公开支 持鲍威尔。他们重申历史教训，强调美联储的独立性对于有效管理经济至关重 要，一旦其公信力受损，代价将极为高昂。这一表态并非空穴来风，而是针对 近期美国总统特朗普威胁罢免美联储主席鲍威尔的言论不断升温所作出的明确 回应。尽管特朗普尚未采取实际行动，但其相关言论却引发了金融市场的明显 波动，这些市场反应并非出于对美联储政策路径变化的判断，而是出于对美联 储制度本身可能失控的想象。在全球金融高度互联的背景下，制度的可信性早 已内嵌于市场定价机制之中。央行的角色不再仅限于利率调节器，而是成为全 球风险定价结构中的信任锚点。正如我们所强调的那样，比实际失控更危险 的，是市场相信失控可 ...

消息面上，本周二、周四在内蒙古包头以及沈阳等地会有相关军贸装备的展示，机构预计近期来访的大 客户可能都会参加，会给板块带来积极的催化。 机构指出，在市场风格相对不友好的情况下，国防军工依然稳步上行，继续创年内新高，与科技板块走 势相对独立。昨日中证国防指数上涨近1%，离去年11月11日的高点以及不足1%，成交金额小幅萎缩至 347亿，量价走势相对健康。 虽然军贸订单的落地需要一个相对漫长的过程，但是想要证伪军贸订单也是不容易的，只要这个预期一 直在，那么估值的溢价也就会有其合理性。公募基金的二季度已经披露，根据卖方策略的统计，公募基 金在二季度被显著增持，其变动比例仅次于通信、银行，位列第三位。 截至2025年7月22日 10:22，中证国防指数(399973)上涨0.77%，成分股钢研高纳(300034)上涨7.49%，中 兵红箭(000519)上涨4.88%，图南股份(300855)上涨4.58%，内蒙一机(600967)上涨3.87%，菲利华 (300395)上涨3.45%。国防ETF(512670)上涨0.62%， 冲击4连涨。最新价报0.82元。 国防ETF紧密跟踪中证国防指数，中证国防指数选取隶属 ...

资料来源：Wind； 自7月10日沪指站上3500点以来，市场已连续8个交易日收盘在此点位上方。与以往不同，这次突破并非依赖单一板块的暴力拉升，而是呈现"权重搭台+成 长唱戏"的均衡格局。 具体表现在—— 金融股稳盘：银行、保险板块受益于低利率环境下的资金避险需求，成为指数"压舱石"； 科技股突围：AI算力、机器人、半导体等板块轮动上涨，科创50指数年内涨幅超20%； 周期股补涨：稀土、有色等板块受大宗商品价格反弹推动，成为市场新热点。 最近的A股市场，像极了一场"过山车"——上证指数在3500点附近反复震荡，银行股突然发力冲高，科技板块又接力上涨，连广场舞大妈都开始讨论"牛市 是不是要来了"。 作为普通投资者，我们该如何看待这轮行情？又该用怎样的心态和策略应对波动？ 政策变量扰动：若LPR降息幅度不及预期，可能引发板块获利盘兑现。 避免"羊群效应"：三个不追原则 不追高题材股：如近期连板的AI概念股，需警惕游资撤离引发的"A字杀"； 不盲目切换赛道：新能源、消费等板块虽滞涨，但缺乏短期催化，需等待基本面拐点； 现阶段这种行情呈现，主要得益于以下两种因素—— 政策利好：降息预期与"反内卷"双轮驱动 降息预期升 ...

国内工业品价格表现偏强 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） hening@kysec.cn 2025 年 07 月 22 日 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 供需：工业与消费供需波动运行 1.建筑开工：开工率仍处季节性低位。最近两周（7 月 6 日至 7 月 19 日），石油沥 青装置开工率、水泥发运率季节性位置仍位于历史中低位，磨机运转率进一步下 行。基建、房建项目水泥出库量保持历史同期低位，但已有企稳回升迹象，资金 方面，建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2024 年同期。 2.工业生产端，化工链开工率略降，汽车钢胎开工率回升。最近两周，工业开工 整体景气度仍处于历史中高位，且汽车钢胎与高炉焦化企业开工率有所回升。化 工链中 PX 开工率回落至历史中位，汽车半钢胎开工率回升至历史中高位，焦化 企业开工率处于历史中低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求偏弱，汽车、家电需求波动运行。最近两周，建筑需求弱于 历史同期，螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需求低于历史同期。汽车销售同比分化运行， 中国轻纺城成交量回落至历史低位，义乌小商品价格指数有所回升，主要家电线 ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 2025年07月22日 | 黄金：震荡上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：突破上行 | 2 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：供需矛盾预期，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：价格走弱 | 9 | | 铝：震荡上行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：短期情绪偏强 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：宏观情绪提振预期，现实限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面决定弹性 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵 ...

操作建议： 暂时维持观望，调整之后可逢低做多，谨慎追涨， 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3224 | 77 | 2.45% | 86 | 2.74% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3394 | 84 | 2.54% | 118 | 3.60% | | | 螺纹钢现货价格（HRB400E 20mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3320 | 70 | 2.15% | 110 | 3.43% | | | 热轧板卷现货价格（Q235 4.75mm，上海） | 元/吨 | 3420 | 80 | 2.40% | 120 | 3.64% | | | 螺纹钢主力基差 | 元/吨 | 96 | | -7 | | 24 | | | 热轧卷板主力基差 | 元/吨 | 26 | | -4 | | 2 | | | 螺纹钢期货10-1价差 | 元/吨 | -53 | | -9 | | - ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-07-22 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着前期利空预期逐渐消化以后，沪胶期价转入震荡回升趋势中。据气象 ...