大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78865，基差-65，贴水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月6日铜库存减5600至132400吨，上期所铜库存较上周增1613吨至107404吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，多翻空；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，铜价震荡运行为主. 近期利多利空分析 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,巴以地缘政治扰动。 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Shanghai Copper Weekly Report (6.3 - 5.6) [1] - Author: Zhu Senlin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Core View - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose significantly, with the main contract of Shanghai copper rising 1.71% to close at 78,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors disturbed copper prices, and there were new developments in US tariffs, leading to high global uncertainty. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 132,400 tons, showing a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,613 tons to 107,404 tons compared with the previous week [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.71% to close at 78,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices. Downstream consumption in China was in the off - season with average willingness. Spot trading was for rigid demand. LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 1,613 tons to 107,404 tons [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: No specific PMI - related content is provided other than the title [6][8] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and in 2025, it will be in surplus. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a supply - demand balance of 110,000 tons in 2024 [10][13] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [14][17] 3. Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is at a low level [20] - **CFTC**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [22] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content is provided other than the title [25] - **Import Profit**: No specific content is provided other than the title [28] - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific content is provided other than the title [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillating". Specific ratings for each variety are as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [7] - Iron ore: Oscillating [7] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [7] - Coke: Oscillating weakly [7] - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly [11] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [12] - Soda ash: Oscillating weakly [12] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [13] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [14] 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the macro - positive sentiment and coking coal news catalyzed a strong rebound after the previous price decline. The steel inventory is in a destocking state, and the iron ore supply - demand is in a tight balance, leading to more optimistic voices in the market. However, the domestic construction and manufacturing industries are about to enter the off - season, and the "rush to export" is also under - performing, with limited demand growth. So the rebound height is still limited, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy guidance [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Supply: Overseas incremental release is lower than expected, with a year - on - year decline in cumulative shipments throughout the year, and the new project ramp - up has slowed down, reducing the annual increment [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profitability is stable, and hot metal production has slightly decreased, expected to remain at a high level in the short term. Under the tight supply - demand balance, the inventory accumulation pressure before September is small, and the real supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - Coking Coal - Supply: Although there are expectations of supply tightening due to safety accidents in Shanxi and the news of Mongolia's coal export tariff increase, currently, most coal mines in the production area are operating normally, and the coking coal output remains high. The news of Mongolia's export tax rate change is unconfirmed, and the port clearance continues at a high level, so the overall supply is still loose [3]. - Demand: Coke production remains high but is expected to decline due to increased inventory pressure and shrinking coking profits. During the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment decreases, increasing the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal. Overall, the coking coal supply - demand remains loose, and the price lacks upward momentum [3]. - Coke: Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts. The supply is stable, but the demand is weakening due to the decline in hot metal production and the approaching off - season of steel consumption. With the continuous decline of coking coal prices and weakening demand, the coke price is expected to be weak in the short term [10]. Alloys - Silicomanganese: The market sentiment is cautious. The cost of manganese ore is under pressure as the south32 Australian ore is arriving at the port this week. The domestic market has not reacted significantly to Gabon's ban on manganese ore exports starting in 2029. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weak due to the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply has increased slightly, and the downstream is in the off - season with a strong willingness to destock. The demand is expected to weaken further, and the cost may still have a negative impact. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [14]. Glass - Demand: In the off - season, the demand is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year. - Supply: There are both cold - repair and restart plans, and the supply pressure remains. The upstream inventory is accumulating, and the mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price cuts of Hubei manufacturers [5]. Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming. - Demand: The heavy - soda demand is expected to be mainly for rigid procurement, and the growth of photovoltaic glass daily melting may not be sustainable. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [5].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/06 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/29 145 564 98671 32165 -810.64 212.82 89.0 105.0 51.57 152375 74450 2025/05/30 175 665 105791 34128 -778.22 155.91 86.0 100.0 50.08 149875 74850 2025/06/03 215 1019 105791 31404 -652.82 409.92 85.0 100.0 52.31 143850 74375 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 变化 -5 ...

沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78345，基差175，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月5日铜库存减3350至138000吨，上期所铜库存较上周减7120吨至105791吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，铜价震荡运行为主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,巴以地缘政治扰动。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Positive trend with good investment opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: Slightly bullish, but limited trading operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] - Asphalt: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Neutral, with poor short - term operability, recommend waiting and seeing [1] Core Views - The rapid production increase strategy of OPEC+ makes the supply - demand tightness from seasonality and geopolitical fluctuations unsustainable. Keep an eye on short - selling opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical disturbances are fully priced in [2] - The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in shipping and deep - processing remains weak, and the cracking and EFS of high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to weaken jointly. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil under the situation of weak supply and demand [3] - The supply increase of asphalt lacks resilience, the demand has a seasonal improvement, the de - stocking trend is expected to continue, and the upward trend of BU cracking is hard to reverse [4] - The downward space of LPG is limited after the supply pressure weakens, but the supply pressure still exists in summer, and it maintains a low - level shock [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC07 contract dropping 0.83% during the day [2] - Saudi Arabia hopes that OPEC+ will continue to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and has lowered the official price premium of light crude oil sold to Asia in July [2] - The supply interruption caused by the wildfires in Canada has partially recovered, and the inventories of gasoline and refined oil in the EIA last week increased more than expected, indicating that demand cannot match the increase in refinery supply [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in shipping and deep - processing is still weak. Although the power - generation demand in the Middle East and North Africa in summer provides some support, the expected power - generation demand for crude oil may exceed that for fuel oil this summer [3] - In May, the arrival volume of Russian fuel oil flowing to Asia increased by 42% to 2.45 million tons, and the production increase of OPEC+ brings an expectation of increased supply of high - sulfur heavy raw materials [3] - The bunker volume of low - sulfur fuel oil in Fujairah dropped significantly last week, the peak season of overseas marine fuel demand is coming to an end, and the bonded inventory at domestic ports has decreased significantly under low supply [3] Asphalt - The discount quotation of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of -$6.5 per barrel, and the estimated discount quotation for July is -$6 per barrel [4] - The production of local refineries depends on crude oil quotas, and the start - up rate of major refineries is still restricted by poor comprehensive refining profit and export profit [4] - The demand has a seasonal improvement, but the real driving force still needs to be awaited [4] LPG - Domestic refineries have increased external sales and prices have generally declined. Although the supply in the Middle East is still abundant, the recent recovery of domestic chemical demand has brought about procurement demand [5] - The international market price is relatively stable. The monthly arrival volume and domestic production of LPG at the beginning of the month have both decreased, and the downward space is limited after the supply pressure weakens [5] - The supply pressure still exists in summer, and currently there is insufficient motivation for the improvement of chemical gross profit, maintaining a low - level shock [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [5][9][16] - Specific product ratings: - Steel: oscillating [7] - Iron ore: oscillating [7][9] - Scrap steel: oscillating [8] - Coke: oscillating weakly [8][10] - Coking coal: oscillating weakly [11][13] - Glass: oscillating weakly [12] - Soda ash: oscillating weakly [12][14] - Ferrosilicon: oscillating [15][16] - Silicomanganese: oscillating [14] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction in the coking coal market has increased, and the prices of the black series have rebounded as a whole. However, due to the approaching off - season of domestic construction and manufacturing industries and the under - expected "rush for exports", the demand is difficult to increase, so the rebound height is limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy orientation [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Black Building Materials Market - **Supply and demand situation**: The domestic demand is seasonally weakening, and the "rush for exports" in the manufacturing industry is under - expected. The off - season trend remains unchanged. Electric furnaces and some blast furnaces have started to make losses, and the molten iron is expected to decline, but the overall profitability provides some support to the cost side [2][3][5] - **Rebound driver**: Low valuation combined with news speculation brings rebound drive, but the height is limited [2][3][5] 3.2 Specific Product Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - **Core logic**: The prices of raw materials rebounded, but the fundamentals changed little. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and there are still expectations of tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand expectation is still weak. The molten iron is at a high level, and the steel output has increased. The overall supply - demand fundamentals have improved this week, and the inventory has decreased, but the falling raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand suppress the futures price [7] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved this week, but the expectation is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate in the short term [7] 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Core logic**: The overseas supply increment is lower than expected, the cumulative annual shipment has decreased year - on - year, and the new project ramp - up has slowed down. The steel enterprises' profitability and order status are still good, and the molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory accumulation pressure before September is small. Affected by the coking coal news, the iron ore price has also increased slightly [3][7] - **Outlook**: If the molten iron can stop falling around 240,000 tons per day as expected and the macro sentiment warms up, the price is expected to continue to rise, but the upside space is limited, and the 09 contract will oscillate in a wide range [7] 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - **Core logic**: After the holiday, the arrival volume is low, and the electric furnace valley - electricity is in a loss state. The apparent demand for rebar has rebounded slightly, and the total inventory has decreased slightly. The supply of scrap steel is tight, and the demand has decreased. The inventory in the factory has increased slightly [8] - **Outlook**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace valley - electricity loss has intensified. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the future [8] 3.2.4 Coke - **Core logic**: The expectation of coking coal supply tightening has increased, but the actual supply - demand remains loose. The supply of coke is stable, but the inventory has accumulated. The demand is weakening, and the cost support is insufficient [8][10] - **Outlook**: The coking coal price is continuously falling, and the demand is weakening. It is expected that the short - term upward trend of the futures price will be difficult to sustain [10] 3.2.5 Coking Coal - **Core logic**: The expectation of supply tightening has increased due to safety accidents in Shanxi and the news of Mongolia's coal export tariff increase. However, the actual supply is still loose, the demand is expected to decline, and the upstream inventory pressure is increasing [4][11] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of coking coal remains loose, and the high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [11] 3.2.6 Glass - **Core logic**: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, the deep - processing demand has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. The daily melting volume is stable, and the price is low, which inhibits the resumption of production. The inventory in the upstream is expected to increase, and the inventory in the middle reaches has decreased. The futures price oscillates due to news and sentiment [12] - **Outlook**: The actual demand is under pressure in the off - season, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. The price cut of Hubei's spot goods leads the futures price to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the price - cut range of Hubei's manufacturers, and the short - term view is oscillating weakly [12] 3.2.7 Soda Ash - **Core logic**: The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. Affected by the coal market news, the price has fluctuated, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [12][14] - **Outlook**: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [14] 3.2.8 Ferrosilicon - **Core logic**: Affected by the improved sentiment in the black sector, the futures price of ferrosilicon has rebounded from a low level. The supply has increased slightly, but the demand is weakening, and the market sentiment is cautious [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, and the demand is expected to continue to weaken. The cost may still have a drag effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the steel procurement and production situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15] 3.2.9 Silicomanganese - **Core logic**: Affected by the improved sentiment in the black sector, the futures price of silicomanganese has rebounded from a low level. The cost is weakly stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [14] - **Outlook**: The supply of silicomanganese is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The supply - demand is becoming looser. The manufacturers are reluctant to sell due to cost inversion. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [14]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/05 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/28 150 554 98671 34861 -796.53 232.23 89.0 106.0 44.97 154300 71175 2025/05/29 145 564 98671 32165 -810.64 212.82 89.0 105.0 51.57 152375 74450 2025/05/30 175 665 105791 34128 -778.22 155.91 86.0 100.0 50.08 149875 74850 2025/06/03 215 1019 105791 31404 -652.82 409.92 85.0 100.0 52.31 143850 74375 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 变化 -8 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Vegetable Oils and Grains** - Rapeseed oil 2509 contract may oscillate within a platform range in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal may oscillate weakly in the short - term [1] - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term, with attention on new wheat listings and weather changes [1] - **Metals** - Copper prices will continue to fluctuate around the moving average system, with overall changes being minor, and the defense line set at the upper edge of the moving average system [2] - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term bullish approach on dips is recommended [5] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold lows due to news disturbances [6] - Iron ore 2509 will oscillate in the short - term, and traders are advised to be cautious [7] - **Energy and Chemicals** - WTI crude oil will mainly oscillate around $60 - $65 per barrel [8] - Rubber will be weak overall, with attention on downstream rubber processing plant operating rates [9] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at low levels due to weak fundamentals [10] - Soda ash futures will continue to oscillate within the bottom - range in the short - term [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Vegetable Oils and Grains - **Rapeseed Oil** - **Spot Price**: The price of imported Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Qinzhou is 9300 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Market Analysis**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic rapeseed will be listed soon. Near - term imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while long - term supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and short - to - medium - term inventory may remain high [1] - **Soybean Meal** - **Spot Price**: Spot prices in various regions have declined, such as 2770 yuan/ton in Zhangjiagang (-30) [1] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. US soybean sowing is going smoothly, and Brazil is in the peak export season. Domestic soybean supply is recovering, and the pressure on soybean meal supply is emerging. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulation is slow [1] - **Corn** - **Spot Price**: Different regions have different prices, such as 2204 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia [1] - **Market Analysis**: US corn growing conditions are good, and there are concerns about long - term imports. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the transition period between old and new grains. Wheat may replace corn in the feed sector, and weather will affect prices. Downstream demand is weak [1] Metals - **Copper** - **Spot Price**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78350 - 78620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2] - **Market Analysis**: US employment data and political factors affect the possible end of the interest - rate cut cycle. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material supply issues persist, and copper inventory is declining, making the market more complex [2] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Spot Price**: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 60800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventory is high. Supply is still above average, and demand is divided. Overall, prices are falling, and attention should be paid to upstream production cuts [3] - **Steel** - **Spot Price**: Shanghai rebar is 3090 yuan, with a Tangshan开工率 of 83.56%, social inventory of 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory of 200.4 million tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry. Demand is down year - on - year, raw material prices are weak, and inventory is low. The market is driven by policy expectations and fundamentals [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Spot Price**: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton [6] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is abundant, demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts, inventory is slowly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [6] - **Iron Ore** - **Spot Price**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, and the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 735 yuan [7] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are down, Brazilian shipments are up, and port inventory is decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is divided [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Analysis**: Tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions have led to supply concerns. OPEC has lowered future demand growth forecasts, and there are concerns about global demand [8] - **Rubber** - **Spot Price**: Different types of rubber have different prices, such as 13350 yuan/ton for domestic whole - latex [9] - **Market Analysis**: Overseas orders and domestic demand should be monitored. The trade war and oversupply are dragging down prices. Supply is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees are in the tapping season [9] - **PVC** - **Spot Price**: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [10] - **Market Analysis**: Production capacity utilization has increased, demand is still mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has decreased. The fundamentals are still weak, and futures prices are oscillating at low levels [10] - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Price**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1371.88 yuan/ton, down 6.25 yuan/ton [11] - **Market Analysis**: Production has increased due to new capacity. Inventory has decreased, and demand is average. The market lacks new drivers and may oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][4] Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, do not chase short positions in PVC, but there is still pressure in the long - term trend. PVC has a downward drive and needs to compress profits and reduce supply to achieve supply - demand balance. However, due to its low valuation, short - sellers have a strong willingness to take profits, so it's not advisable to chase short positions [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of PVC is 4,834 yuan, the East China spot price is 4,680 yuan, the basis is - 154 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 37 yuan. The PVC spot market is mainly oscillating and stabilizing. Affected by the black market sentiment in the afternoon, the price rose during the session. The supply fundamentals remain unchanged, the cost side is weak, and the long - term demand is uncertain. The spot transaction center has limited fluctuations. The ex - warehouse price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC in East China is 4,620 - 4,750 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4,800 - 5,050 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - High - output and high - inventory structure: The high - output and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to alleviate. The current northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits. The market has been shorting chlor - alkali profits, causing the PVC futures price to hit a new low this year. The high - output pattern continues as the PVC maintenance volume is lower than that in 2023. The cost of chlor - alkali has declined, and the demand for caustic soda in 2025 is well - supported with high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain uses alkali to supplement chlorine, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to PVC losses. In addition, there will be more capacity put into production in the future, with an expected 1.1 million tons of new capacity to be put into production from June to July [2] - Inventory and demand: The pressure of high inventory persists. The export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased, and exports are still affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can quickly reduce PVC inventory in the short - term, the sustainability of exports remains to be seen. Domestically, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have a low willingness to stock up [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, with the value range of [- 2,2]. - 2 means the most bearish, and 2 means the most bullish [4]