Report Summary Investment Rating - The report maintains a shorting strategy for the hog industry, with a trend intensity of -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3] Core View - The spot market for hogs is not performing well during the peak season, and the report suggests maintaining a shorting strategy [1] Key Points from the Report Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 12,580 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; Sichuan's is 12,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; and Guangdong's is 13,110 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of hog futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 12,685 yuan/ton, 13,310 yuan/ton, and 12,745 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 45 yuan, 35 yuan, and 10 yuan [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For contract 2511, trading volume is 30,918 lots, down 8,132 lots, and open interest is 89,538 lots, down 1,281 lots; for 2601, trading volume is 13,157 lots, down 6,220 lots, and open interest is 66,502 lots, down 209 lots; for 2603, trading volume is 5,442 lots, down 2,852 lots, and open interest is 48,476 lots, up 674 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis for contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are - 105 yuan/ton, - 730 yuan/ton, and - 165 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 55 yuan, 65 yuan, and 90 yuan; the 11 - 1 spread is - 625 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 1 - 3 spread is 565 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: There will be a short - term rebound, but the medium - term trend remains weak. Hold short positions on a single - side basis and maintain reverse spreads for the monthly spread [1][8]. - PTA: It will rebound in the short term following oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts, but the medium - term trend is still weak. Implement a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [1][9]. - MEG: It rebounds following raw materials. There is a large supply pressure in the future. Go short on a single - side basis and hold reverse spreads for the monthly spread [1][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On September 25, the price of PX increased. Two November Asian spot orders and one December Asian spot order were traded at $817. The estimated price of PX on September 25 was $817/ton, up $5 from September 24. Market optimism may not last long due to concerns about weak downstream demand [3]. - PTA: In mainland China, the 450 - ton Fuhai Chuang unit restarted, while the 125 - ton Ineos, 120 - ton Zhongtai units stopped. The 110 - ton Ineos and 500 - ton Hengli Huizhou units reduced their loads. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 76.8%, and the calculated PTA operating rate was around 82.7% [5]. - MEG: As of September 25, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.08% (down 1.85% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 74.36% (down 5.02% from the previous period). The ethylene glycol production capacity base in mainland China was adjusted to 29.175 million tons on June 1, 2025 [6]. - Polyester: The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable this week, with the overall theoretical operating load at around 75%. As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 90.3%. A polyester plant restarted, and a factory in South China temporarily stopped due to a typhoon [6]. Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6674 | 4678 | 4246 | 6372 | 490.6 | | Change | 72 | 52 | 12 | 76 | 8.3 | | Change Rate | 1.09% | 1.12% | 0.28% | 1.21% | 1.72% | | Monthly Spread | PX1 - 5 | PTA1 - 5 | MEG1 - 5 | PF12 - 1 | SC11 - 12 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | - 42 | - 40 | - 64 | - 44 | - 1.1 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | - 22 | - 36 | - 64 | - 50 | - 0.5 | | Change | - 20 | - 4 | 0 | 6 | - 0.6 | | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 817 | 4585 | 4311 | 608.5 | 70.54 | | Previous Day's Price | 812 | 4520 | 4305 | 606 | 69.78 | | Change | 5 | 65 | 6 | 2.5 | 0.76 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 218.92 | 174.72 | 237.89 | 67.94 | - 6.01 | | Previous Day's Price | 227.29 | 189.33 | 220.08 | 40.17 | - 6.01 | | Change | - 8.38 | - 14.61 | 17.81 | 27.78 | 0 | [2] Sales Volume - On September 25, the sales volume of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased, with the average sales volume estimated at 180 - 190% by 3:30 pm. The sales volume of direct - spun polyester staple fiber improved, with an average sales volume of 78% by 3:00 pm [7]. - On September 24, the sales volume of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased at the end of the trading session, with the average daily sales volume estimated to be over 150% [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Views and Suggestions - PX: There will be a short - term rebound, but the medium - term trend is weak. Hold short positions on a single - side basis and maintain reverse spreads for the monthly spread [8]. - PTA: It will rebound in the short term following oil prices but is weak in the medium term. Implement a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy. Some PTA factories plan to reduce production, but the polyester operating rate has limited upward space [9]. - MEG: It rebounds following raw materials, but there is large supply pressure. Go short on a single - side basis and hold reverse spreads for the monthly spread [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: Short-term rebound height is limited [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a weak oscillation, and the upward space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2] - Soybean meal: Argentina resumes export tariffs, with a rebound and oscillation [2] - Soybean: Rebound and oscillation [2] - Corn: Pay attention to the new grain listing [2] - Sugar: Range oscillation [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to the price of seed cotton [2] - Eggs: Wait for the verification of the Double Festivals [2] - Live pigs: The spot market fails to boom in the peak season, maintain the shorting idea [2] - Peanuts: Oscillatory operation [2] Summary by Directory Palm Oil - **Production Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 20, 2025, is estimated to have decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month [5] - **Export Data**: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.9% (ITS) and 11.3% (AmSpec) compared to the same period last month [6][10] - **Market Performance**: The palm oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 9,222 yuan/ton with a 1.05% increase and a night - session closing price of 9,258 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase [7] Soybean Oil - **USDA Forecast**: Analysts' average forecast for US soybean inventory on September 1, 2025, is 3.23 billion bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [10] - **Export Sales**: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 72.45 tons, meeting expectations [11] - **Market Performance**: The soybean oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 8,192 yuan/ton with a 1.14% increase and a night - session closing price of 8,198 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase [7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Market News**: Argentina resumed export tariffs, causing CBOT soybeans to rise slightly, but US soybean bumper harvest and weak export sales restricted the upward trend [15][17] - **Export Sales**: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 22.62 tons, meeting expectations [11] - **Market Performance**: DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - session closing price of 2967 yuan/ton with a 1.54% increase and a night - session closing price of 2956 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease [15] Corn - **Market Price**: The northern corn collection port price is 2240 - 2270 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou is 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton [19] - **Market Performance**: The C2511 contract had a day - session closing price of 2,165 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase and a night - session closing price of 2,171 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase [18] Sugar - **Production Data**: Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons [23] - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 tons in the 25/26 season [25] - **Market Performance**: The futures main contract price was 5485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [23] Cotton - **Domestic Market**: Cotton spot trading is sluggish, and the seed cotton purchase price is temporarily stable [29] - **US Market**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly, and the weekly export sales data was poor [30] - **Market Performance**: The CF2601 contract had a day - session closing price of 13,530 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decrease and a night - session closing price of 13490 yuan/ton with a 0.30% decrease [28] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2510 contract had a closing price of 2,981 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.78% increase [34] Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The Henan spot price was 12580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [37] - **Trend**: Maintain the shorting idea due to the weak peak - season spot market [2][38] Peanuts - **Spot Market**: The prices in most regions are stable, and the listing time of wheat - stubble peanuts is postponed [41] - **Market Performance**: The PK510 contract had a closing price of 7,770 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [40]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2601 and synthetic rubber futures 2511 are expected to run weakly. The short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, while the intraday trends are volatile and weak [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Thursday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a weak downward trend, with the futures price closing slightly lower by 1.76% to 15,355 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a weak trend on Friday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the dot - plot shows a slower - than - expected future interest - rate cut schedule. Also, due to the approaching National Day holiday, the operating rate of the domestic tire industry is gradually weakening, leading to weak demand in the rubber market [5]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Thursday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract maintained a weak downward trend, with the futures price closing sharply lower by 2.42% to 11,275 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Friday [6]. - **Core Logic**: Similar to Shanghai rubber, the Fed's interest - rate cut situation and the weakening operating rate of the domestic tire industry due to the approaching National Day holiday result in weak demand in the rubber market [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the glass futures rose again, which was the result of the resonance of policy expectations, marginal improvement in supply - demand, and sector linkage [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level overall [7]. - The gold market is showing strength and can continue to be bullish [12]. - The iron ore market is in a high - level wide - range oscillation range and should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [14]. - The glass market should return to a low - buying strategy [19]. - The soybean oil market is under pressure from high inventory and should be treated with a bearish bias [23]. - The pulp market is expected to remain in low - level oscillation, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures - On September 24, multiple ministries issued a work plan to strictly control cement and glass production capacity, which is beneficial to the glass market [4]. - On September 25, the glass production and sales rate increased significantly, driving enterprise inventories to continue to decline. As of September 25, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1.553 million heavy boxes or 2.55%, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56% [4]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market opened lower and moved higher. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index oscillated upward throughout the day, while the Shanghai Composite Index oscillated slightly around the opening price. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level [7][8]. Gold - The market is trading the expectation of an interest rate cut in October. After three days of adjustment, gold rose strongly again and reached a new high, showing obvious strength [12]. Iron Ore - The supply side has stable shipments. Recently, steel mills are showing signs of resuming production, and molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. With the approaching of the National Day holiday in the middle and late period, the start of restocking may support raw materials. Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range oscillation range [14][15]. Glass - Technically, the glass market has risen sharply and regained its platform support, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted. The daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory has declined slightly, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation near the peak season [19][20]. Soybean Oil - As of September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory suppresses the price increase space, and the market should be treated with a bearish bias [23]. Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong region remained stable today, and the port inventory started to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - to - high level. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet, and it is expected to remain in low - level oscillation [28].

| 甲醇日评20250925:关注低多机会 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 变化值 | 指标 | 2025/9/23 | 单位 | 2025/9/24 | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 2351.00 | 2343.00 | 8.00 | 元/吨 | 0.34% | | | | | 元/吨 | MA05 | 2379.00 | 0.17% | 2375.00 | 4.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2342.00 | 2337.00 | 5.00 | 0.21% | | | | | 2255.00 | 2235.00 | 20.00 | 0.89% | 太仓 | 元/呼 | | | | | 元/吨 | 山东 | 2340.00 | 2360.00 | -20.00 | -0.85% | | | | | 元/吨 | 广东 | 2260.00 | 2255.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | 期现价格 | 甲醇 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Commodities Market**: The overall commodities market shows a mixed trend with various factors influencing each commodity. Some commodities are expected to be in a state of shock, while others are expected to show a certain upward or downward trend. - **Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical events, such as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and trade agreements, like the Indonesia - EU economic partnership agreement, have significant impacts on the market. Macroeconomic policies, such as the central bank's MLF operations, also affect the financial market. 3. Summary by Commodity **Alkali** - **Market Conditions**: The national mainstream price of heavy - alkali is 1,283 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. Weekly production is 74.57 tons, a 2.02% week - on - week decrease. Total inventory is 175.56 tons, a 2.33% weekly decline. The float glass start - up rate is 76.01%, remaining stable weekly. - **Outlook**: The float glass market has stable start - up and slightly decreasing inventory, with weak demand. The domestic alkali market price is stable with general downstream demand. The 01 contract of alkali is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1,285. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [1]. **Gold** - **Market Conditions**: The US has imposed a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts since August 1, and some EU products are on the tariff exemption list since September 1. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical and tariff risks are increasing, which is beneficial for gold. However, the rising US dollar index exerts pressure on gold. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial for precious metals. Gold is expected to fluctuate upward [1]. **Crude Oil** - **Market Conditions**: As of September 19, the total US crude oil inventory decreased by 380,000 barrels, commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory decreased by 1.08 million barrels. Daily production increased by 19,000 barrels compared to the previous week. - **Outlook**: The continuous attacks on Russian oil facilities by Ukraine and the decline in US crude oil inventory have intensified supply concerns, causing overnight crude oil prices to rise. However, there is still pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. **Rubber** - **Market Conditions**: Thai raw material prices are mixed. Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first eight months increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and exports to China increased by 27%. Global light - vehicle sales in August increased by 4.1% year - on - year. - **Outlook**: Typhoons in the producing areas have affected rubber tapping. Downstream pre - holiday restocking has ended, and inventory reduction is difficult. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate [4]. **PTA** - **Market Conditions**: The overall polyester market inventory is concentrated between 16 - 26 days. PTA maintenance devices are resuming, and the start - up rate is increasing. PX supply is increasing, and PXN is under pressure. - **Outlook**: Polyester inventory is decreasing, and short - term demand has some support, but the expectation of new orders and load recovery is limited. PTA is expected to fluctuate [5]. **Live Pigs** - **Market Conditions**: On September 24, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.2% compared to the previous day. - **Outlook**: The national pig price showed mixed trends, with the Northeast region being stronger and some southern regions weaker. The breeding end has high pressure, and terminal demand has limited increase. Near the end of the month, the breeding end's price - holding sentiment is rising, and it is recommended to try short - term long with limited upside space [5]. **Soybeans** - **Market Conditions**: Brazil's ANEC has lowered the September soybean export forecast from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons and the September soybean meal export forecast from 2.19 million tons to 2.1 million tons. - **Outlook**: Imported soybeans are expected to rebound, and bean 2 is expected to fluctuate upward. Domestic soybeans are under pressure due to increasing supply and weak demand, and bean 1 is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [6][7]. **Palm Oil** - **Market Conditions**: Indonesia and the EU have signed an economic partnership agreement, which will promote trade liberalization. - **Outlook**: The international export environment for Indonesian palm oil has improved, and the sales pressure of Malaysian palm oil has been relieved. Domestic demand is suppressed by price increases, but the inventory pressure of oil mills has been relieved. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [7]. **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds** - **Market Conditions**: The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on September 25, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan. - **Outlook**: The central bank's monetary policy is oriented towards liquidity easing. The Fed's interest rate cut may have a negative impact on the bond market, and the operation of the bond market is more difficult [8]. **Methanol** - **Market Conditions**: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,255 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.68%, and downstream capacity utilization increased by 2.2%. - **Outlook**: Domestic methanol start - up is decreasing from a high level, downstream demand is rising, and port inventory is decreasing. Methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term, with support at 2,350. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long [9]. **Silver** - **Market Conditions**: US new home sales in August were much higher than expected, and the inventory of new homes for sale reached the lowest level this year. - **Outlook**: New home sales data may boost US economic confidence, which is beneficial for silver. Silver is expected to fluctuate upward [9]. **Plastic** - **Market Conditions**: The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7,233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton. LLDPE weekly production increased by 3.21%, and production enterprise inventory decreased by 8.93%. - **Outlook**: The price of LLDPE is weak, production enterprise inventory is decreasing, supply is sufficient, and downstream start - up rate is expected to rise. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 7,135. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [10][11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report analyzes the futures trends of various commodities in the black series on September 25, 2025, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations or repeated oscillations, and all have a neutral trend intensity of 0 [2][4][6][7][11][15][17]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of contract 12601 was 803.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.12%. The trading volume decreased by 7,511 hands. Spot prices remained unchanged. The basis for 12601 against Super Special decreased by 1 yuan to 133.9 yuan, and the basis against Jinbuba decreased by 1 yuan to 44.3 yuan [4]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][6][7]. - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar contract RB2601, the closing price was 3,164 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03%, and the trading volume increased by 812 hands. For hot - rolled coil contract HC2601, the closing price was 3,357 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%, and the trading volume increased by 668 hands. Spot prices in most regions changed slightly [7]. - **News**: In mid - September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 941 million tons, up 2.3% month - on - month. In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][11]. - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon contract 2511, the closing price was 5,742 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. For silicomanganese contract 2511, the closing price was 5,900 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton, while the price of silicomanganese remained unchanged [11]. - **News**: On September 24, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported, and some companies announced their procurement prices [11]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal contract JM2601, the closing price was 1,224.5 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.6%. For coke contract J2601, the closing price was 1,730 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 0.7%. Spot prices of some coking coal varieties increased, while others remained unchanged [15]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [15]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Expected to have repeated oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of contract 2511 was 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.2%. The trading volume decreased by 35.9%. The closing price of contract 2601 was 819 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [18]. - **News**: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20].

说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 短期多头了结意愿上升，中长线 上行趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松背景下，矿端扰动再起， 资金关注度快速上升 | 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：本周沪金增仓上行明显，周内主力期价上涨近 30 元/克，触及 860 元关口，对应纽约金 触及 3800 美元，伦敦金站上 3750 美元。昨日美元指数持续反弹，金价高位小幅回落，短期多头了结 意愿上升。中长线上行趋势未改，短线沪金可关注 5 日均线支撑，纽约金可关注 3800 美元关口压力。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to a volatile state. With the long - holiday approaching, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial pull - back retreats in the stock index market are expected. [2] - Without incremental negative news, the high - end range of the 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to be 1.8 - 1.83%. In the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the interest rate is limited, with resistance around 1.75%. [2] - Gold maintains high - level volatility, and its volatility may rise again, but there are large risks of fluctuations as derivative contracts expire at the end of the month. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly. [2] - The shipping index of container transportation (European line) shows a volatile trend. Steel prices continue to fluctuate, supported by steel exports. Iron ore prices are strong due to reduced shipments, increased molten iron production, and restocking demand. [2] - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures prices of coking coal and coke are volatile. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and some coke enterprises have started to propose price increases. [2] - Supply concerns in the copper market have increased due to disturbances at the Grasberg mine, leading to a rapid rise in copper prices. The cost of alumina provides support, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decline. [2] - Geopolitical risks have increased the risk premium of crude oil, and EIA inventory drawdowns have strengthened short - term support for oil prices. The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, and the supply - demand outlook for PX is positive but affected by strong cost factors. [2] - New device commissioning expectations and a weak terminal market have put pressure on the upside of ethylene glycol. The market for agricultural products has entered a stage of stop - falling adjustment, and the supply of new cotton is increasing. [2] - The glass market has been strongly driven by news, and rubber prices are strongly volatile in the short term due to typhoon weather. The market sentiment of industrial silicon has improved, and the price of polysilicon has rebounded. [2] Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the stock index shows a full - scale rebound with a hot tech sector. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price around 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums. [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: Tight capital and a strong stock market have suppressed the bond market. It is recommended to use range - trading strategies for single - side operations and participate in basis narrowing strategies for the TL contract. [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold maintains high - level volatility, and it is recommended to buy on dips or use out - of - the - money call options. For silver above $41, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. [2] Black - **Steel**: Steel exports support the black market valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to short - sell the spread between January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils, buy iron ore 2601 on dips (reference range: 780 - 850), and go long on coking coal 2601 (reference range: 1150 - 1300) and coke 2601 (reference range: 1650 - 1800). [2] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to supply concerns, copper prices have risen rapidly. It is recommended to hold long positions, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 81000 - 81500. [2] - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The cost of alumina provides support, the inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decline, and the pre - holiday restocking demand supports the price of aluminum alloys. [2] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc shows inventory drawdowns in the peak season, tin imports remain low in August, nickel shows a volatile upward trend, and stainless steel shows a slight upward movement. [2] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks and inventory drawdowns support oil prices. It is recommended to use single - side band - trading strategies, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. [2] - **Other Chemicals**: For various chemicals such as urea, PX, and ethylene glycol, different trading strategies are recommended based on their supply - demand situations and price trends. [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as grains, oils, sugar, cotton, and eggs have different price trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals. [2] Special and New Energy Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by news and weather respectively, and industrial silicon and polysilicon have price rebounds due to improved market sentiment. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by news and shows a weakening trend in a tight - balance fundamental situation. [2]