Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The report indicates that the precious metals market is experiencing a decline in prices due to easing trade concerns and profit-taking activities, with gold and silver prices dropping by 3.89% and 3.62% respectively [2][28][30] - The base metals market shows mixed signals, with copper prices continuing to rise despite weak demand and high inventory levels, while aluminum prices have reached new highs due to stable supply and positive macroeconomic sentiment [1][21][22][32] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have continued to rise, with the current price at 87,130 CNY/ton, but demand remains weak, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [1][13] - Aluminum: Prices have increased to 21,415 CNY/ton, supported by stable supply and positive macroeconomic factors, with a notable increase in aluminum rod production [1][21][22] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have decreased, attributed to reduced safe-haven demand following improved trade relations and market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [2][28][30] Minor Metals - Antimony: Prices are under pressure, but new export regulations may help restore demand [3][41] - Rare Earths: Prices are beginning to rise, driven by expectations of export recovery and stable demand [4][41] Market Predictions - The report anticipates that copper prices will face upward pressure in the short term, while aluminum prices are expected to remain high due to favorable macroeconomic conditions [1][14][21] - Precious metals are likely to continue experiencing price fluctuations, influenced by geopolitical developments and monetary policy announcements [2][29][30]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the ongoing tension in US-China trade relations, particularly following the US announcement to continue the 301 investigation despite recent agreements on soybean purchases and other concessions [1][13][21] - The cooperation between the US and China is characterized as a transactional exchange rather than a foundation of mutual trust, with both sides making concessions that cater to their immediate needs [3][9][11] - The US has agreed to lower tariffs on fentanyl-related products and suspend the "50% rule" that previously restricted Chinese companies, allowing them some breathing room in the market [5][9] Group 2 - China has committed to purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans in the current quarter and 25 million tons annually for the next three years, which is seen as a significant relief for struggling US farmers [7][15] - The tightening of export controls on fentanyl precursor chemicals by China aligns with US political needs, providing a rationale for the US government to address domestic concerns [9][19] - The initiation of the 301 investigation serves as a political tool for the Trump administration, allowing them to maintain a strong stance against China while appeasing domestic hawkish interest groups [13][17][21] Group 3 - The 301 investigation, launched on October 4, is based on the US Trade Act of 1974 and aims to assess China's compliance with the 2020 trade agreement, serving both domestic political purposes and external pressure on China [17][19] - The investigation creates uncertainty in the market, undermining business confidence and complicating supply chain planning for companies affected by the trade war [25][27] - The article emphasizes that the fundamental issue in US-China relations is not merely about trade figures but rather the need for a dialogue framework that respects equality and mutual interests [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of potential 100% tariffs on Chinese imports proposed by Trump, highlighting the significant risks and challenges for the U.S. economy while suggesting that such threats are more political posturing than actionable policy [1][3][10]. Trade Relations - The U.S.-China bilateral trade volume reached $575 billion in 2023, indicating that imposing 100% tariffs would severely disrupt U.S. supply chains [3]. - In 2023, China's exports to ASEAN surpassed those to the U.S. for the first time, reaching approximately $550 billion, showcasing China's diversification in trade relationships [7]. Economic Impact - The Federal Reserve reported that U.S. manufacturing jobs have only increased by less than 4% compared to pre-pandemic levels, raising concerns about the capacity to support a decoupled market [5]. - Previous tariffs have already cost American households an average of $1,300 annually, and a 100% tariff could exacerbate inflation significantly [5]. Strategic Positioning - China has been preparing for potential decoupling since 2020, with strategies such as rare earth export management and expanding trade with regions like the Middle East and Africa [3][7]. - China's domestic chip import volume has been declining since 2022, with a domestic replacement rate reaching 45%, indicating a shift towards self-sufficiency [9]. Political Dynamics - Trump's rhetoric about tariffs appears to be more about electoral strategy than genuine intent, as the economic repercussions would likely harm his voter base [5][9]. - The article suggests that U.S. politicians are focused on electoral gains while Chinese companies prioritize survival and operational continuity [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for coking coal is bullish, and for coke is also bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade risk is controllable, and the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are tight. It is recommended to hold long positions [1] Summary by Directory Information - The US cancels the so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, suspends the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export control and the 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics and shipbuilding industries for one year. China adjusts the corresponding counter - measures [1] Disk Coking Coal - As of the close on October 30th, Mongolian 5 prime coking coal was reported at 1,332 yuan/ton (+0), and the spot was strengthening. The active contract was reported at 1,288 yuan/ton (-14). The basis was +114 yuan/ton (+14), and the January - May spread was -71 yuan/ton (+5.5) [1] Coke - As of the close on October 30th, the quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was reported at 1,570 yuan/ton (+0), and the third round of price increases was initiated in some areas. The active contract was reported at 1,786.5 yuan/ton (-14.5). The basis was -98 yuan/ton (+14.5), and the January - May spread was -140.5 yuan/ton (+2.5) [2] Supply Coking Coal - The operating rate of 523 mines was reported at 85.06% (-2.27), and the capacity utilization rate of 314 coal washing plants was reported at 36.87% (+1.08). Mine production decreased, while the operation of coal washing plants increased [2] Coke - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.16% (-0.83), and the supply continued to shrink [2] Demand Coking Coal - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.16% (-0.83), and the demand decreased [2] Coke - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was reported at 90.33% (-0.22), and the daily average pig iron output was 240.95 million tons (-0.59) [3] Inventory Coking Coal - The clean coal inventory of 523 mines was reported at 189.54 million tons (-15.87), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants was 289.62 million tons (-0.79), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.96 million tons (-5.36), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 885.26 (+32), and the port inventory was 275.65 million tons (+2.94) [3] Coke - The inventory of 230 coking enterprises was 37.49 million tons (-0.1), the inventory of 247 steel mills was 633.16 million tons (-6.28), and the port inventory was 200.09 million tons (+4.94) [3] Conclusion Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal continues to shrink. Spot transactions remain at a high level. The upstream mines reduce their clean coal inventory, while the downstream coking enterprises replenish their inventory, and the inventory reduction shifts downstream. Recently, the prices of coking coal in many places have been raised, and the overall spot is strong. It is recommended to hold long positions in JM01 and be vigilant against callbacks [3] Coke - Due to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and the continuous narrowing of steel mill profits, the pig iron output of steel mills has decreased, and coking enterprises have continuously reduced production, resulting in a tight supply. The second - round price increase of the spot has been implemented, and the third - round price increase has been initiated in some areas. It is recommended to hold long positions in J01 lightly [4] Strategy Suggestion - Hold long positions in JM01; hold long positions in J01 lightly [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, rapeseed oil futures continued to decline, with the 01 contract closing at 9,422 yuan/ton, down 339 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price was affected by factors such as the harvest of Canadian rapeseed, the expected increase in palm oil supply, and the anticipation of Sino - Canadian trade talks [6]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with the 01 contract closing at 2,388 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous week. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price was boosted by the optimistic sentiment of Sino - US trade [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Market Review**: The 01 contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,422 yuan/ton, down 339 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Canadian rapeseed harvest is completed with a bumper crop, putting pressure on prices. The expected increase in Indonesian palm oil production and the uncertainty of the B50 biodiesel plan also impact the market. In China, the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed will lead to a structural tightening of imports in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed oil will continue to destock, supporting prices. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its substitution advantage limit the demand for rapeseed oil. The market is also affected by the anticipation of Sino - Canadian trade talks [6]. Rapeseed Meal - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term watch [8]. - **Market Review**: The 01 contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2,388 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The progress of US soybean harvest exerts pressure on prices, but the Sino - US summit has boosted market sentiment. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal will be restricted in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure is small. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market Price Trends - Rapeseed oil futures continued to decline this week, with a total open interest of 220,738 lots, down 30,322 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and rebounded, with a total open interest of 343,443 lots, down 28,052 lots from last week [15]. Top Twenty Net Positions Changes - The top twenty net positions of rapeseed oil futures were +2,459 this week, compared with +7,916 last week, showing a decrease in net long positions. The top twenty net positions of rapeseed meal futures were - 88,865 this week, compared with - 108,635 last week, showing a decrease in net short positions [21]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 7,540 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 2,955 lots [25][28]. Spot Prices and Basis Trends - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,780 yuan/ton, significantly lower than last week. The basis between the active contract of rapeseed oil futures and the spot price in Jiangsu was +358 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan/ton, slightly higher than last week. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of rapeseed meal futures was +32 yuan/ton [34][40]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread Changes - The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +281 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +46 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [48]. Futures - to - Spot Ratio Changes - The ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.946, and the average spot price ratio was 4.04 [51]. Rapeseed - Soybean Oil and Rapeseed - Palm Oil Spread Changes - The 01 contract spread of rapeseed - soybean oil was 1,294 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed this week. The 01 contract spread of rapeseed - palm oil was 658 yuan/ton, with little change this week [61]. Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spread Changes - The 01 contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 633 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread of soybean - rapeseed meal was 490 yuan/ton [66]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side**: As of October 24, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20,000 tons. The estimated arrivals of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 were 65,000 tons, 195,000 tons, and 580,000 tons respectively. As of October 30, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was +1,051 yuan/ton. As of the 43rd week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 4,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 0.98%. In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 115,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 691,600 tons (85.71%) and a month - on - month decrease of 131,400 tons [72][76][80][84]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 601,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,000 tons (1.44%). In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 156,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10,200 tons (6.99%) and a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons [88]. - **Demand - Side**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.95 million tons, and the monthly retail sales of catering were 450.86 billion yuan. As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the contract volume of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil was 35,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons (8.30%) [92][96]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 8,000 tons, unchanged from last week. In September 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 157,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64,700 tons (29.08%) and a month - on - month decrease of 55,700 tons [100][104]. - **Demand - Side**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3.1287 million tons [108]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - As of October 31, rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly higher this week. The implied volatility of the corresponding options was 22.13%, up 2.8% from 19.33% last week, at a slightly higher level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [112].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government expresses a commitment to enhancing economic and trade cooperation with the United States, following a recent agreement to a "trade truce" between the two nations [1]. Group 1: Economic Cooperation - The Chinese side emphasizes the importance of dialogue and consultation to address issues and expand cooperation, aiming for a stable and sustainable development of Sino-U.S. relations [1]. - There is a mutual agreement between the leaders of China and the U.S. to strengthen cooperation in economic and trade areas [1]. Group 2: Compliance Investigation - Despite the recent trade truce, the U.S. will continue to investigate whether China is adhering to the trade agreements made during Trump's first term [1].

俄罗斯卫星通讯社援引专家观点称，此次会晤为近期动荡的中美关系起到关键领航定向作用。美方已意 识到遏制中国难以奏效。双方求同存异是必由之路，和平共处是必然结果。 路透社、美联社、法新社等媒体对中美元首会晤进行密集报道。路透社称，此次会晤为中美贸易紧张局 势降温。报道援引专家观点称，预计此次会晤将为两国间更深入的贸易和经济对话铺平道路。美国有线 电视新闻网评价，这是一次历史性会晤。 美国《政治报》网站刊文指出，此前，持续数月的贸易紧张局势阻碍了美中两国的经贸往来，此次会晤 有助于缓和局势。 英国广播公司报道称，中美双方就重要经贸问题形成共识，同意在经贸、能源等领域加强合作并保持经 常性交往。 中新社北京10月30日电 综合消息：当地时间10月30日，中国国家主席习近平在韩国釜山同美国总统特 朗普举行会晤。外媒对此高度关注，认为此次会晤有助于缓和中美贸易紧张局势，推动双边关系稳定发 展。 印度《汉斯印度报》评价称，此次会晤是缓和中美紧张关系的关键一步，并将影响中美关系的下一阶 段，双方将在贸易、技术和全球挑战方面寻求共同点。 据彭博社、英国广播公司报道，特朗普当天在返美途中接受采访时称，此次会晤非常成功，双方在很多 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices rebounded and closed higher, indicating strengthened bullish momentum, with potential to reach $3250 or new highs if the closing remains above the mid-band resistance [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $3930.35 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3915.33, then rebounded to a high of $4026.81, ultimately closing at $4024.25, with a daily fluctuation of $111.48, a gain of $93.9, or 2.39% [3]. Influencing Factors - Despite Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggesting that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, which strengthened the dollar, the market returned to bullish buying as uncertainties remained, particularly after the recent U.S.-China meeting did not yield a "deal" [3]. - The end of the Fed's rate cut cycle and the conclusion of the U.S.-China talks have led to a reduction in adjustment pressure, allowing bullish sentiment to strengthen [3]. Market Outlook - On October 31, gold is expected to maintain a strong upward trend, supported by recent bullish patterns and reduced adjustment pressures, with a focus on upcoming data and speeches from key Federal Reserve officials [3].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is high, which is likely to lead to another bullish phase for gold prices [1][5][6]. Market Performance - On October 30, international gold prices opened at $3930.35 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3915.33, and then rebounded to a high of $4026.81, closing at $4024.25, marking a daily increase of $93.9 or 2.39% [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The market is currently viewing the recent U.S.-China trade discussions as a temporary easing of tensions rather than a structural change, maintaining uncertainty in the market [3][5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is estimated at 74.7%, indicating a strong likelihood of continued easing [5]. Geopolitical and Trade Factors - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and trade policies are expected to sustain demand for gold, both from private investors and central banks [6]. - The recent announcement by Trump to reduce tariffs from 57% to 47% is seen as having minimal impact, with the market's optimism regarding trade agreements viewed as short-lived [5]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently showing signs of a bullish trend, with a need for further upward momentum to maintain strength above the 30-day moving average [10]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3990 or $3965, while resistance levels are at $4075 or $4100 [10]. Future Outlook - The expectation is for gold prices to rise again in the coming months, driven by continued interest rate cuts and economic data that may support bullish sentiment [6][12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Coke: The spot market prices of coke in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port have increased week - on - week. The coke futures main contract is driven by the warm - up of the macro - environment, the results of the Sino - US summit, and supply - side expectations. However, the upstream - downstream game is intense, and the fundamental upward drive is limited, with cost support from coking coal and sentiment support from the macro - environment being the relative positives [6][33]. - Coking coal: On October 30, the coking coal futures main contract rose, with a decrease in open interest. The spot price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased week - on - week. The coking coal market has weak supply and demand recently, but the warm - up of the macro - environment and industry policy expectations drive the main contract to maintain a strong trend [6][33]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Information - Sino - US economic and trade consensus: The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year. China will adjust counter - measures accordingly. Both sides will extend some tariff exclusion measures. The US will suspend the implementation of some export control rules, 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year, and China will take corresponding actions [8]. - The price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable on October 30, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal being 1600 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Spot Market - Coke prices: Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index is 1570 yuan/ton, up 3.29% week - on - week; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke ex - warehouse price is 1530 yuan/ton, up 2.68% week - on - week [6][33]. - Coking coal prices: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1390 yuan/ton, up 6.11% week - on - week [6][33]. 3. Futures Market - Coke: The closing price of the active contract is 1786.5, with a daily increase of 0.59%. The trading volume is 19,482, and the open interest is 39,742, with a decrease of 747 compared to the previous trading day [14]. - Coking coal: The closing price of the active contract is 1288.0, with a daily increase of 1.62%. The trading volume is 1,060,058, and the open interest is 692,345, with a decrease of 14,346 compared to the previous trading day [14]. 4. Related Charts - Coke inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory over the years [15][16][17][18]. - Coking coal inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal over the years [20][23][25][30]. - Other charts: There are charts related to domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement, coal - washing plant production, coking plant operation, etc [27][28][31][32]. 5. Market Outlook - Coke: The spot market prices are rising. The futures main contract is driven by macro - factors and supply - side expectations, but the fundamental upward drive is limited [6][33]. - Coking coal: The futures main contract shows a strong trend, driven by the macro - environment and policy expectations, despite weak supply and demand [6][33].